Tuesday January 27 2026 Forecast (7:34AM)

264 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)

With deep snow cover and frequently reinforced cold from Canada, it’s the classic midwinter feel for the final 5 days of January. We’ll be a dry pattern for a while in the wake of our recent winter storm, with just a few snow flurries from time to time from disturbances passing through from the northwest. As we get to the weekend, we’ll be eyeing a developing storm to our south, which will spread increasing high cloudiness into our region on Saturday and bring the chance of snow by Saturday night, but at day 5 there is uncertainty with timing and track of that system, to be brought into more focus as the week goes on.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a snow flurry this afternoon. Highs 19-26. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds with a few snow showers early, then partly cloudy. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 4-11. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to +4. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 15-22. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +2. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 17-24. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Storm potentials February 1 and 5, with dry and cold weather in between.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Quieter but continued cold pattern anticipated during this period with a couple minor systems bringing snow shower chances.

264 thoughts on “Tuesday January 27 2026 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  3. Thanks TK,
    Looks like several of the storm chances go to the south but that likely locks in the cold for the region, keeping the snowpack in place

    Reply

  4. Thanks TK
    23.2 for Boston making it the 8th biggest snowfall in history
    Snowfall Standings
    BOS 34.1
    NY 21.1

    Reply

  5. Good morning and thank you TK

    9 this morning and that was the low

    Ocean: 4

    Wordle: FAIL

    Here we received 18-19 inches with the Sunday-Sunday night initial thump, then 1 inch yesterday afternoon and 3 inches
    yesterday evening for a grand total of: 22-23 inches.

    re: Weekend
    All eyes are on that. Some guidance say miss to the East while some graze or healthy side swipe. Needs to be monitored. šŸ™‚

    Reply

        1. Very true, Dr. Sadly, In 2015 in too many instances it was not in good places. I remember ambulances unable to get to people in need.

          Reply

  7. Thanks, TK.

    I’m happy it looks and feels like winter. Absolutely beautiful outside. The only thing that beats this in my book is fall foliage at its peak in October.

    Reply

  8. Thank you TK! Roads were still a bit of a mess for my drive to work. Thankfully I don’t have too far to go.

    Wordle: Barely made it into the caboose with a 6.

    Reply

      2. I have letters 2,3,5 in the correct place after four guesses and absolutely no clue what the word is. Reading here, I think I see why.

        Reply

      3. You both made the caboose! I missed the train 2 days in a row now!!!!
        Had 3 letters out of position after 1 guess after 2nd I had one of those letters in the correct position. Next 4 guess were all valid words, each of which I thought was the word! NOPE!!!
        Didn’t like any of my 4 words!!! Oh well. Screw Wordle and the horse it road in on……………..

        Reply

  10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met&rh=2026012700&fh=144&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2026012700&fh=144&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-met&rh=2026012700&fh=144&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

    At the time of our next event, the models all have a similar strong storm just west of the British Isles

    1) very active pattern on our side of the hemisphere (another 970 mb) low out in the Pacific

    2) I was ultimately calling up continental view to look at high latitude blocking and its presence or lack there of

    3) anyhow, as is always the case, where that strong storm ends up probably has some effect on where the east coast cyclogenesis tracks

    4) very active hemispheric pattern in that time frame !

    Reply

    1. 3) where that strong British Isles storm ends up.

      Really though, in that time frame, the other side of the northern hemisphere, the atmosphere is on break.

      Donā€™t see a low sub 1,005 mb anywhere.

      Reply

  11. Thank you, TK. We are at our low of 2 degrees

    Truly terrific forecast on Fern. Itā€™d be awesome if you could forecast this weekend out to sea.

    Reply

  12. Question. I chatted with Macā€™s twin and his wife last night. Their oldest is fascinated by weather. They live not far east of San Francisco

    Itā€™s a stretch but does anyone know of a blog like this in that area???

    Reply

    1. I donā€™t know of any, but Iā€™m anxious to get to next week to get some idea of the weather for the San Francisco vicinity for Super Bowl Sunday.

      Reply

  13. Matt, take care on your long flight to the other side of the earth. I’m seeing that it’s very hot in parts of Australia. No surprise. It is after all summer there.

    By the way, Delta also offers free wi-fi for Sky Miles members. I use it on my flights to and from England.

    Reply

  14. Wordle in 4.

    The side roads were the absolute worst in Hingham and Quincy on the way to work. Itā€™s as if they didnā€™t get the memo about additional snow. I had shoveled a little mound out into the street at about 8pm last night that was still there at 7am indicating a plow had never been around. Which was interesting considering how on top of it the plows were during the first part of the storm.

    Hereā€™s hoping this next potential is a big olā€™ miss. No matter what – I am happy that I tackled the massive snow drifts on the roof just in case.

    Reply

  17. Thanks, TK!

    3 earlier, 12 now. Beautiful blue skies!

    14.5″ in the weekend storm here in the backyard.
    NWS-Norton apparently hasn’t posted its final total yet, including last night’s finale.

    Reply

  18. From Meteorologist Tim Kelley
    “The Euro”
    1000 mb 1pm Saturday
    962 mb 1pm Sunday
    -38 mb / 24 hours
    (I have never seen a Blizzard miss bc it tracked closer to Bermuda than Nantucket ~ that would be a neat trick)

    Reply

  19. This thing needs to be watch carefully. It is only Tuesday and were talking about something that could happen on Sunday. How many times within 2-3 days we see storms get close and have an impact.

    Reply

    1. ā€œBAMā€? When I see that I think of two things:

      Bam bam from the flintstones

      ā€œBam!ā€ – chef Emiril Legassiā€™s catchphrase

      Reply

  21. We know this game m, betting it comes west

    We got 4 inches yesterday and with my 19 we are at call it two feet. Someone walked away with two feet as I thought they would šŸ™‚

    Reply

    1. 19 + 4 = 24???
      I agree totally with the 19 + 4. Same here, but
      23 does not equal 24. šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

      Not than 1 inch matters with that much snow. šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

      Reply

  23. This kind of setup next weekend, even is it missed us is the kind of setup that can deliver real cold to even southernmost FL, a chill to the keys and the Bahamas and even ooze into Cuba.

    Its cold in south fl now, but this can be a deliver where Miami gets to or under 32F and parts of Carolina coastlines can get an unusual heavy snowstorm.

    Reply

      1. Iā€™d like to see the final number for Marshfield & pembroke . Pembroke had a two hour delay today & lots of folks pissed as a lot still not cleaned up. Iā€™m venturing out to the store today & I am curious to see how everything looks . It sure was nice being home & not needing to worry about traveling into Boston for work ..

        Reply

          1. How so ?? You are familiar with how the side streets & sidewalks & parking lots look, itā€™s a mess still in those areas & the piles of snow on corners are massive . Bad call on having school .

            Reply

  25. If it stays offshore, Iā€™ve been fortunate to be on Norwegian cruises the last few years.

    Weā€™ll see if we can rent the Norwegian gem and head out to Georgeā€™s Bank and weā€™ll get the full clobber. Well even pay some staff to prepare the really good buffet food.

    šŸ™‚ šŸ˜‰ šŸ™‚

    Reply

  30. This event can miis precip wise and still impact us with strong N and NW winds given how intense it could be.

    Still going to be cold with a ton of snow on the ground.

    Reply

  31. Itā€™s pretty nice in the sun without a lot of wind and itā€™s beautiful out with the bright sun on the deep
    snow.

    Reply

  35. Ok, we now have 3 12Z models in for the weekend storm.
    One a complete miss, and 2 are impactful for Eastern sections.

    Willing to be anything the Euro and UKMET are a miss.

    Reply

  36. Thanks TK.

    Not that we arenā€™t watching it already, but the weekend storm really bears close watching. That thing will likely be an absolute behemoth. The way itā€™s kinda being branded by both media and the met community is ā€œpotential for a classic Norā€™easterā€, after the last storm, which was a major snow event but obviously not a ā€œclassic Norā€™easterā€.

    But honestly I think that phrasing kind of undersells the potential. If itā€™s a direct hit, this would be more than a run of the mill Norā€™easter, and Iā€™m not really thinking in terms of snow. Very large, very deep, fairly slow moving low coming in on a full moon. In a worst case scenario, there are catastrophic outcomes on the table here, albeit everything would have to come together ā€œjust soā€ for that to happen. It remains very much possible, and probably more likely, that the storm misses out to sea entirely or is a graze with still potentially significant but less destructive impacts. But worth being aware of the high end potentials in this case and leveraging that probabilistic communicationā€¦

    Reply

    3. Thank you. And I agree with ssk. Out to sea sounds good.

      WxW do you have any weather forums like this one that youā€™d suggest for my niece who lives just east of San Francisco?

      Reply

  37. Sorry, Iā€™m a keep moving southeast.

    The moon is full 5pm Monday.

    A storm of this intensity would make a major impact for the coastal and communities on the south shore some distance inland.

    Major flooding and multi day power outages would be possible.

    Reply

  39. In fact, I make need to take a break from here later in the week, if Iā€™m sensing people hoping for this intensity a system to come closer.

    The weather will do what it will do and I know no one on here wants anything impactful for anyone, at the same time, please keep in mind that it would be so impactful for so many.

    If itā€™s 985-990 mb, fine weā€™ll take our chances and Iā€™ll hope it comes closer, but in the low 960s mb, no !

    Reply

  45. eweather
    @Eweather13
    41m

    12z GFS brings a blizzard to SE MA Sunday and significant coastal impacts – especially that south shore area of E MA around Scituate that gets hammered by norā€™easters.

    Back in CT, windy with a few light snow showers, but thatā€™s it – per this model run.

    Important to note VA gets crushed by snow in the run.

    Low tracks east and then takes a jog north. Is that right or does it move NE which could push snow back west in SNE? TBD.

    https://x.com/Eweather13/status/2016184090622386220?s=20

    Reply

  46. I donā€™t mind the heavy snow impacts though I prefer a bit of a hiatus as thereā€™s little room for new snow. I absolutely donā€™t like wind. Heavy snow + high winds = disaster. No thank you.

    Reply

  47. I think thereā€™s a different season analogy for this next event weā€™re watching for inland areas.

    Over the next decades of summers, the next potential Long Island Express (strong 3 at potential landfall) is on the half the models and the other half are grazes or misses.

    The hits are right up central or eastern Long Island, straight north thru some part of central/eastern CT or central MA and the misses are 200 miles SE of Nantucket.

    Iā€™d be posting the links everyday, over analyzing them and talking about them too much, but, I would be careful in what I wrote with respect to any hints of what I hope might happen.

    And I guess thatā€™s all I hope people will think about here if these pressures continue at such lows.

    Again, if itā€™s not so intense, Iā€™ll be right there with you hoping it comes closer.

    Reply

      1. Yep, looks like it. Most interested in the ensembles though. Usually an indication of how much play there is for the track to shift, if they have decent spread.

        Reply

  52. 12z Euro looks about the same as 0z but noticing the timing/evolution is all a bit slower on 12z. Not sure if there is any significance to that one way or the other.

    Reply

  54. The whole thing closes off and bombs out too far south off the Carolinas, which is good news if you dont want major impacts here. That needs to happen further north if this thing is going to track closer to the benchmark.

    Reply

  57. I am with those that might need to take a break later this week. This spells disaster if it comes closer. Roof weight, major coastal flooding, etc. I am already dealing with some ice dams forming from the 23 inches we just had and spent hours today roof raking.

    Reply

    1. Wow North, 23 inches?? Either I measured wrong or I got stuck in a snow hole. I see your schools had a 2-hr delay. I’m very curious how towns fared with a delay vs cancellation.

      Reply

  58. Looks like there was still a lot of cleanup to be had from what I am hearing, but these DPW workers were out for almost 2 days straight.

    Reply

  62. Although we cannot write the weekend storm off at this point, it is beginning to look more and more like an off shore solution.
    We never stop watching!!!

    What day was it last week where the stop was off shore and started moving back? Around Tues or Wed? I really don’t remember.

    Reply

  63. What is it that the AI models do, that consistently has storms come closer than their regular models? What are they learning?
    Interesting…..

    Reply

    1. Previously, they had most of hits as OTS or grazes. I have seen no distinctive pattern other than streaky “behavior”.

      Reply

    2. It is interesting. A lot of those AI actually utilize data from traditional models. I think GenCast, the AI model from Google DeepMind, got started by importing 40 years of Euro data.

      The AI models do learn on their own but they continue to absorb traditional model data too … yet they come out with different solutions.

      Reply

      1. With very limited sample size, I’ve noticed the AIGFS tends to look more like the GFS and the AIFS more like ECMWF solutions, but perhaps I’m looking for that (what have others noticed?)

        But the point about the model data: the AI models train off reanalysis. If we had perfect spatial observations of all Earth atmosphere at high time frequency we wouldn’t need the reanalysis, but obviously we don’t. So reanalysis data of the full 3d atmospheric state, while being effectively nudged to observations, inherently contains all the (physics-based) model problems/biases etc. we know and love, in some form or another.

        Reply

  64. What is/was the OE folks here were discussing during the storm?

    From what I was able to understand, OE referred to the front that was moving east to west causing the temperature to rise.
    What does OE stand for? I am guessing “Onshore Energy.” ???

    What’s the difference between an OE and a norlun?

    Thanks! šŸ™‚

    Reply

  67. I won’t be disappointed if the weekend storm misses. To have a major snowstorm last weekend and a moderate snowstorm just after Christmas I can’t complain the way this winter has been so far.

    Reply

  68. Looking back through last week’s discussion, the similarities are uncanny. I know it’s a totally different setup, but on Monday, models were split but nothing showed a major storm up here, either way OTS or some snow. By later Tues evening, starting with the 18z euro is when it really became apparent, we would get something, but it was still questionable if it would be big. Consensus by Wed morning was that we would get something significant, but not top 10.

    Reply

    1. Thank you ACE. I thought it was close to that.

      Will be watching 18Z Euro which I won’t have available until 7:45-8:00 PM.

      Reply

  70. Here is a vague question. Quite a few years ago there was a snow storm that was well OTS and it was throwing snow back at us while 400-600 miles off the coast. Does anyone remember that?

    Reply

    1. YES, that was the system in March 2013. The storm was halfway to Bermuda and it had a moisture fetch all the way back to SNE. Very odd setup. I got 20″ out of that one.

      This storm was a month after NEMO/the Blizzard of 2013. Though all that snow from that storm had since melted.

      We ended up with 100″ of snow that winter in Coventry but never had a consistent snowpack since it always warmed up in between systems. Classic example of a winter that produced a ton of snow but wasnt particularly cold.

      Reply

  75. No changes to my outlook after 12z data review.

    While it’s still very early, my idea remains “outside” for the weekend threat, but “outside” does not necessarily mean “miss”.

    This evolution makes me think of a similar one: February 9 1987.

    Reply

    2. Interesting, thanks TK. Previous event you were leaning a closer pass than modeled at the same timeframe prior to the event and you ended up right. Here’s hoping you are right this time as well.

      Reply

  77. 18z GFS operational crushes the Outer Banks and Cape Cod. Wind and snow impacts eventually for all of Eastern MA.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012718&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012718&fh=117&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012718&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Yikes. Not a SE trend with that run….

    Reply

  80. From a met on the American Weather forum…..

    Growing up during the age of Miller A’s, I will say this… Some of the biggest busts I’ve witnessed and studied were intense Miller A storms. Error / bust potential is often much less when dealing with Miller B events. Given the historic look of the absurdly digging 500 mb trough, I would be very wary of this escaping too far east?

    While history making events are always possible, that 500 mb evolution is beyond extreme! If it develops as modeled, then it’s one for the record books. I think it would be wise to assume its (500 mb) intensity is not going to be as intense as modeled.

    Lots to consider; where will the primary form, does it jump / reform well to the east, or does it get tugged westward, stall, loop, ???

    Thumb through the Kocin book(s) and you will find examples of Miller A’s that were expected to graze southeastern SNE, and to everyone’s surprise, ended up throwing heavy snow back into eastern NY? Not saying this one will, but the evolution of the 500 mb level tells me this is not a simple escape east situation.

    I think a more western track evolves on modeling tomorrow.

    Reply

      1. Refresh my memory..
        Miller A develop in gulf and move up coast.
        Miller B come from west and mid west go up Ohio valley and tedevelop on the coast. Did I get it ass backwards?

        Reply

        2. Miller A: Classic Gulf Wave type storm, or one that forms off the Southeast Coast and is one main low, up the coast – can be inside runner, coastal hugger, or offshore track.

          Miller B: Primary low into Ohio Valley or somewhere in that area (can be further north or further south), secondary coastal low forms and tracks up coast or offshore, depending on pattern.

          The storm we just had was a form of Miller B.

          A classic example of a memorable Miller A is Super Storm 1993.

          Reply

  81. I Would like to know now if we are getting this storm. This not knowing drives me nuts. If it’s not coming, fine, life goes on. If it is coming would be nice to be able to prepare. I’M going to the store tomorrow and will pick uo extra items just in case. Better safe than sorry.

    Reply

    2. Agree, better safe than sorry. I am not terribly concerned out my way but Eastern MA has a better shot at snow and wind impacts and of course, the coastal flooding. Even a non-direct hit could have significant impacts like the 18z GFS is showing.

      Reply

  83. To the WHW family.

    All of you have been anxious about the last snow storm, supermarket shopping, the Pats, shoveling out, and the upcoming pattern. So I have decided to provide all of you with a great sense of relief. I checked the tropics and there are no immediate threats!

    Reply

  84. Philip…

    February 9 1987 was the second of two storms called “Cape Blizzards” by myself and colleagues. The storm, lasting into February 10, dumped 20+ inches of snow on much of Cape Cod with up to several foot high drifts. I believe Boston’s snow total from this storm was just under 4 inches, and I had about 2 inches here in the NW suburbs. This storm was forecast to be big hit for all of southern New England just one day before its arrival, and scooted a little further offshore, nailing the Cape and sparing everyone else. Even Providence RI only recorded 2.2 inches from the event.

    This followed a very similar event that occurred on January 26 1987 when 10 to 20 inches fell on Cape Cod and a rapid drop off to just light amounts in the Boston area.

    Reply

  87. On this date in 1934, much of the country, in sharp contrast to the current cold snap, was in the grips of a large “January thaw”, with about 50% of the Lower 48 having high temps of 60 degrees or higher.

    Reply

    1. I just looked out the window, saw huge flakes, said oh dear God and looked away. This from a lifelong snow lover. What had happened to me

      Reply

  89. Someone in the Marshfield police dept, who by the way are awesome and I give an A+++++++ to, erred.

    They retracted that 2 hr delay and then the superintendent called and said we are a full day go tomorrow. Yay !

    Reply

  91. When we went out about 4pm, Iā€™m looking at the flags and thereā€™s a tower flag at the Marshfield exit and they were absolutely SW winds.

    So clearly, some boundary is coming through with this scattered snow activity this evening.

    Reply

  92. Hi all. Skunked on wordle today after three shots only missing the first letter. Ugh!

    Curious what anyone else thought of Mike Wankums explanation of the Euro and GFS and why you canā€™t make confident predictions this far out when models arenā€™t aligned. I thought it was substantive but good for the non-whw informed observer.

    Reply

    2. Mike is an excellent weather forecaster but unfortunately many donā€™t like him here & I really donā€™t know why . Mike did good he put out there 3 potential ideas & said itā€™s to early . I think he is a responsible forecaster

      Reply

  93. For the month of January, the USA holds a couple of unique, obscure, and unusual world-wide weather records. I have read about them more than once. Both occurred in Montana.

    1) On January 14-15th 1972 in in Loma, MT, the temperature rose 103F within 24 hours, jumping from -54Ā°F to 49Ā°F. It is considered the greatest 24 hour temperature rise ever recorded in the world.

    2) On January 11, 1980 in Great Falls, MT, the temperature rose 47Ā°F in just 7 minutes, rising from -32Ā°F to 15Ā°F. It is considered the fastest temperature rise ever recorded (I have some doubts about this.)

    Both have been attributed to Chinook winds.

    Reply

    1. I like ESPNā€™s reporting and reading btwn the lines, they focus on Bill Polina, former Colts GM during the Manning/Brady rivalry.

      He understandably hated the Pats and Belicheck and the Pats got the better of the Colts during that long stretch.

      He would go to the rules committee hoping to change rules based on what the Pats were doing. I would suspect itā€™s him behind the scenes who persuaded voters.

      But Bill owns a bit of this with his treatment of media who are some of the voters and then of course spygate.

      Reply

      2. Assuming it is Polina – he absolutely majorly damaged the HOF. This news just came out and as you can see everyone is speaking out. There will be a flood of voices. Are they going to try to push tom to wait because of that BS deflategate? Bill won multiple championships after the spygate drama.

        Reply

  100. If it ends up the weekend storm will be more of a hit, Iā€™ve definitely got to clear snow off the top of our camper and maybe get some off our deck. Itā€™s a new deck, but still, Iā€™m sure thereā€™s a weight point at which there could be a problem.

    Also, the downwind side of my roof has some drifts of what looks like 3ft on it, in spots.

    Reply

        1. Tom you can borrow one if needed as we are only less than 20 minutes from each other . Iā€™m not feeling it for weekend event

          Reply

    2. Iā€™m worrying about our deck too. Itā€™s also new but there is a lot of snow there. My uxbridge SIL said it would be ok but ā€¦..

      Reply

  101. Reading the americanwx boards about any storm is funny. Thereā€™s a large quotient of people who are very emotionally tied to each run. One run says out to sea? Itā€™s over. Pack it up. No storm. Next run moves a little north east? Blockbuster. Sure thing. Gunna happen. Moves away next run? Dud. On to the next one. Rinse repeat. Itā€™s entertaining.

    Reply

    1. I am of the belief that this behavior is indicative of a “problem”. I’ve seen enough of it now that I don’t think I’m overreacting. It’s the real deal.

      Reply

    2. It is entertaining and I like to pop in there, especially when there is a storm threat. There are lots of Mets in there who contribute including Ryan Hanrahan, Scott Nogueira, and many others. I pay attention mostly to their posts but there are many amateurs on there as well that make model posts that I donā€™t have access to.

      Reply

  102. I had to shovel one section that had not been done yet, and after last night’s snow my total for the storm was just shy of 20 inches. This is the most lightweight 20 inches of snow I have ever seen. There’s hardly any water in it.

    Reply

    1. Quite a difference down here.

      That could be said of our first half a foot.

      But after that, much more dense.

      Put it this way, the top layer, when I would shovel it or try to get it off our cars, was breaking into cubed pieces. Large pieces that would thud a bit hitting the ground or wherever they landed.

      Reply

    1. Part of my roof had drifts just as big. Tried to tackle it with my roof rake. Didnā€™t get it well enough. Went up on a ladder. Not too terribly smart of me butā€¦ Heyā€¦ enough snow for a soft landing if I fell.

      Reply

      2. Many years ago I was talking to Macā€™s mom on phone. There was a crash She asked what it was. I told her it was just her son sliding. Off the roof. He was fine. Lots of snow then

        Reply

    1. We didnā€™t.

      The marshfield or nearest to Marshfield ob was 19.7ā€

      We were 27F by 5pm Sunday evening and of course, being further south, was also closer to where the 700 mb temp was approaching -2C

      So, really a different snow on the ground than all the fluff/powder everyone else is reporting.

      Reply

    2. These numbers never jive for me. I don’t know who or how one becomes a spotter but we’ve got an over 4 inch difference in acton, 5 inches in Middleton, an 6 inches between neighboring towns during a storm that was pretty uniform in its dispersion. There was over two feet in the lynfield, Middleton, north reading, reading area without question..some spotters said yes some said no…what is the truth and what gets put in the record books…don’t like the system

      Reply

      1. In a storm of this magnitude, with that high a snow-to-water ratio, a 4 or 5 inch difference across one fairly large sized down (and Acton is NOT small), is not unusual at all. I spend a lot of time in Acton, and I have driven across the town to observe such differences in person, so I’d heavily lean toward these numbers being correct, as both of those observers are pretty consistently good.

        Middleton: Not that small either, and also elevation differences, and in the vicinity of a coastal front and a band of ocean enhanced snow for part of the storm. A 5-inch difference across the town I completely buy.

        A difference of up to several inches in neighboring towns is nothing unusual (again in a large magnitude storm with high ratio snowfall).

        I was once recorded a 10 inch ocean effect snowfall here in Woburn, while just 3 miles to my south in Winchester, only 2 inches fell. Driving from here to there to observe the gradient was pretty wild.

        Don’t forget the event just a couple winters ago in which the snowfall in eastern Essex County was 0.6 inch and in western Essex County was 21 inches.

        The NWS relies on spotters, and they have guidelines about measuring snow. While it’s never going to be perfect, having observed this system in action since I started measuring snow myself at age 10 in 1978, it actually works quiet well.

        What are your suggestions to improve the current system?

        Reply

        1. I hear you and generally agree with your assessment, but I can’t help but feel there needs to be a better way. Ultimately I think automating the process via robots or something akin to what we would call a robot is the answer, but that’s probably 5-10 years away

          Reply

    1. The mean is an average of all the ensembles including the outliers. So yes, a few SE outliers in this case for example could skew the ensemble mean low center further southeast even if the majority of the ensembles are NW of the mean.

      Reply

  110. Go for Snow. Replying to your comment above.

    I am a new spotter. And we can easily have a few inches difference in sutton. When I call in my report, I always specify it is for SE Sutton

    Training now is online.

    Reply

    1. There are two reports for Lunenburg. They both say NE, which I guess means northeast. One report is 20.1″ and the other is 12.0″.

      Certainly the 20.1″ is more accurate. They both have the same three digits, so maybe there was really only one report that got listed twice with the digits in different orders.

      I don’t think that NE Lunenburg needs two reports šŸ™‚

      Reply

      1. Thatā€™s odd. If it happens again I can ask. But my guess is numbers may have been mixed up. There were so many reports called in and most are called multiple times every so many intervals

        Reply

    1. Well, I talk about this all the time. Inside 4 days.

      Before that, it’s just about watching trends mostly on ensembles and keeping an eye on the overall pattern set-up.

      Reply

  112. From the Uxbridge PD. This is the family of the Uxbridge officer who was killed in an accident while on a detail

    The New England Patriots are Sending Shannon LaPorta and Matthew LaPorta to the Super Bowl.

    There are no words. Unbelievable. Absolutely unreal.

    What a way to honor Steve. 3ļøāƒ£1ļøāƒ£

    #letsfinishthisforsteve #winfor31 #gopats

    Reply

  113. 0Z Canadian is off shore as well as the UKMET, but the GFS is a crush job. What will the 0Z Euro have to say. Will it continue
    the NW trend or go back to the SE??????

    Reply

    1. 0z ICON was largely out to sea as well but its ensemble mean was well NW again and delivers accumulating snow to all of SNE.

      0z GFS and its ensemblesā€¦oh my, even further NW. 20ā€ Boston and 6-10ā€ back into the eastern half of CT.

      Interested to see the 0z Canadian ensembles after the op run went out to sea and of course the 0z Euro and EPS.

      Reply

          1. Results are quite variable.
            A lot more observing is required to really know how useful they’ll become, but they are not likely going anywhere except becoming more widely used.

            Reply

  115. 6z GFS back SE and now just sideswipes the Cape. 6z ICON about the same.
    Looks like the models may be starting to agree on a solution though still 4 days outā€¦.

    Reply

    1. Agree. 18z Euro and 0z gfs may have been the last hurrah on this one.

      OR, is this the Bernie Rayno Windshield wiper effect?

      Time will tell.

      Reply

Leave a Reply to Philip Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *