DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)
With deep snow cover and frequently reinforced cold from Canada, it’s the classic midwinter feel for the final 5 days of January. We’ll be a dry pattern for a while in the wake of our recent winter storm, with just a few snow flurries from time to time from disturbances passing through from the northwest. As we get to the weekend, we’ll be eyeing a developing storm to our south, which will spread increasing high cloudiness into our region on Saturday and bring the chance of snow by Saturday night, but at day 5 there is uncertainty with timing and track of that system, to be brought into more focus as the week goes on.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a snow flurry this afternoon. Highs 19-26. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Lots of clouds with a few snow showers early, then partly cloudy. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 4-11. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to +4. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 15-22. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +2. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 17-24. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Storm potentials February 1 and 5, with dry and cold weather in between.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Quieter but continued cold pattern anticipated during this period with a couple minor systems bringing snow shower chances.
Thanks, TK.
Thank you!
Thanks TK,
Looks like several of the storm chances go to the south but that likely locks in the cold for the region, keeping the snowpack in place
By the way if u are a aaadvantage flyer on American u now get free wifi š
Thanks TK
23.2 for Boston making it the 8th biggest snowfall in history
Snowfall Standings
BOS 34.1
NY 21.1
Thanks Jimmy.
Good morning and thank you TK
9 this morning and that was the low
Ocean: 4
Wordle: FAIL
Here we received 18-19 inches with the Sunday-Sunday night initial thump, then 1 inch yesterday afternoon and 3 inches
yesterday evening for a grand total of: 22-23 inches.
re: Weekend
All eyes are on that. Some guidance say miss to the East while some graze or healthy side swipe. Needs to be monitored. š
Where would we put another 2 feet of snow?
The same place we put it in 2015.
Very true, Dr. Sadly, In 2015 in too many instances it was not in good places. I remember ambulances unable to get to people in need.
Thanks TK.
BOS 23.2
ORH 22.4
2021-2022:
Boston 54.0, Worcester 53.6 āļø
Thanks, TK.
I’m happy it looks and feels like winter. Absolutely beautiful outside. The only thing that beats this in my book is fall foliage at its peak in October.
Thank you TK! Roads were still a bit of a mess for my drive to work. Thankfully I don’t have too far to go.
Wordle: Barely made it into the caboose with a 6.
Thanks TK !
Wordle : 6. What was that word ? š
Cold week !!
Right?!?!?! They are coming up with some doozies lately. Glad I have company in the caboose.
Indeed and weāre going to throw a rope to JpDave and welcome him in.
JPD is always welcome!
I have letters 2,3,5 in the correct place after four guesses and absolutely no clue what the word is. Reading here, I think I see why.
Good luck Vicki !!
You both made the caboose! I missed the train 2 days in a row now!!!!
Had 3 letters out of position after 1 guess after 2nd I had one of those letters in the correct position. Next 4 guess were all valid words, each of which I thought was the word! NOPE!!!
Didn’t like any of my 4 words!!! Oh well. Screw Wordle and the horse it road in on……………..
Heyyyyyy. It isnāt the horses fault ;(
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met&rh=2026012700&fh=144&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2026012700&fh=144&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-met&rh=2026012700&fh=144&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=
At the time of our next event, the models all have a similar strong storm just west of the British Isles
1) very active pattern on our side of the hemisphere (another 970 mb) low out in the Pacific
2) I was ultimately calling up continental view to look at high latitude blocking and its presence or lack there of
3) anyhow, as is always the case, where that strong storm ends up probably has some effect on where the east coast cyclogenesis tracks
4) very active hemispheric pattern in that time frame !
3) where that strong British Isles storm ends up.
Really though, in that time frame, the other side of the northern hemisphere, the atmosphere is on break.
Donāt see a low sub 1,005 mb anywhere.
Thank you, TK. We are at our low of 2 degrees
Truly terrific forecast on Fern. Itād be awesome if you could forecast this weekend out to sea.
Question. I chatted with Macās twin and his wife last night. Their oldest is fascinated by weather. They live not far east of San Francisco
Itās a stretch but does anyone know of a blog like this in that area???
I donāt know of any, but Iām anxious to get to next week to get some idea of the weather for the San Francisco vicinity for Super Bowl Sunday.
Thank you, Tom. And me too
Thereās this blog but it doesnāt have as strong a community as here. But Richard does know his stuff: https://weatherpro.wordpress.com/
Wow. Fantastic. Thanks Dr!!
Matt, take care on your long flight to the other side of the earth. I’m seeing that it’s very hot in parts of Australia. No surprise. It is after all summer there.
By the way, Delta also offers free wi-fi for Sky Miles members. I use it on my flights to and from England.
Wordle in 4.
The side roads were the absolute worst in Hingham and Quincy on the way to work. Itās as if they didnāt get the memo about additional snow. I had shoveled a little mound out into the street at about 8pm last night that was still there at 7am indicating a plow had never been around. Which was interesting considering how on top of it the plows were during the first part of the storm.
Hereās hoping this next potential is a big olā miss. No matter what – I am happy that I tackled the massive snow drifts on the roof just in case.
Superb Dr on Wordle !
Wow 4 inns one is excellent
On this one is what I was trying to say
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G19&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
This will be better, later, the high percentage of the US covered now in snow or ice.
And the Gulf and Atlantic, with instability cumulus showing the expansion of the cold airmass.
I got Wordle in 5. Too bad, it looks like all the fun will be in the caboose today. š
Just got it in 5. Took forever. Letās all pick a car and meet there
Yeah!!
Can someone throw me a line?
We will all throw a line.
š
Thanks, TK!
3 earlier, 12 now. Beautiful blue skies!
14.5″ in the weekend storm here in the backyard.
NWS-Norton apparently hasn’t posted its final total yet, including last night’s finale.
From Meteorologist Tim Kelley
“The Euro”
1000 mb 1pm Saturday
962 mb 1pm Sunday
-38 mb / 24 hours
(I have never seen a Blizzard miss bc it tracked closer to Bermuda than Nantucket ~ that would be a neat trick)
that’s funny.
This thing needs to be watch carefully. It is only Tuesday and were talking about something that could happen on Sunday. How many times within 2-3 days we see storms get close and have an impact.
From BAM Weather
https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2016154574382321709
āBAMā? When I see that I think of two things:
Bam bam from the flintstones
āBam!ā – chef Emiril Legassiās catchphrase
Yup, would take Fred by one arm pound him into the ground.
We know this game m, betting it comes west
We got 4 inches yesterday and with my 19 we are at call it two feet. Someone walked away with two feet as I thought they would š
19 + 4 = 24???
I agree totally with the 19 + 4. Same here, but
23 does not equal 24. š š š
Not than 1 inch matters with that much snow. š š š
I know you rounding up lol
From Meteorologist Mike Masco
https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/2016149358350086166
From Ryan Hanrahan
https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2016160533322305793
This kind of setup next weekend, even is it missed us is the kind of setup that can deliver real cold to even southernmost FL, a chill to the keys and the Bahamas and even ooze into Cuba.
Its cold in south fl now, but this can be a deliver where Miami gets to or under 32F and parts of Carolina coastlines can get an unusual heavy snowstorm.
A lot of the whole east coast, for those reasons, needs to be following this, not just our area.
Cleanup completed, best guess another 4 dropped last night & was easier to move .
That was helpful (lighter weight) and same here, a good 4 more š
Iād like to see the final number for Marshfield & pembroke . Pembroke had a two hour delay today & lots of folks pissed as a lot still not cleaned up. Iām venturing out to the store today & I am curious to see how everything looks . It sure was nice being home & not needing to worry about traveling into Boston for work ..
The people who are pissed are also clueless as to how this works.
How so ?? You are familiar with how the side streets & sidewalks & parking lots look, itās a mess still in those areas & the piles of snow on corners are massive . Bad call on having school .
If it stays offshore, Iāve been fortunate to be on Norwegian cruises the last few years.
Weāll see if we can rent the Norwegian gem and head out to Georgeās Bank and weāll get the full clobber. Well even pay some staff to prepare the really good buffet food.
š š š
https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/box.png
Testament to the continuous cold.
See it more often off the coast of ME, MA and NH, but how about a freezing spray advisory in Buzzards Bay and Nantucket sound.
12z icon is a big fat miss.
“Past performance does not guarantee future results.”
Is that a good thing if we want a storm? š
Nah. š
12z gfs has side swipe with up to 6-12 inches in far eastern sections.
This event can miis precip wise and still impact us with strong N and NW winds given how intense it could be.
Still going to be cold with a ton of snow on the ground.
Itās pretty nice in the sun without a lot of wind and itās beautiful out with the bright sun on the deep
snow.
Iām not even focusing on another storm
Oh my on the 12z Canadian…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2026012712&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
What a monster. Threading the needle.
12z GFS and Canadian are pretty big hits for SE areas. Wont take much of a NW shift for a larger impact further inland.
Kuchera Snow with 8″ Boston trending to 15″ Cape..
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012712&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12z GFS Snow about the same:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012712&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Keep moving back to the northwest
Ok, we now have 3 12Z models in for the weekend storm.
One a complete miss, and 2 are impactful for Eastern sections.
Willing to be anything the Euro and UKMET are a miss.
Didn’t realize the UKMET was already out, so we can’t count my prediction there. But it was true
UKMET another Big FAT miss
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2026012712&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
12z UKMET is a miss.
Thanks TK.
Not that we arenāt watching it already, but the weekend storm really bears close watching. That thing will likely be an absolute behemoth. The way itās kinda being branded by both media and the met community is āpotential for a classic Norāeasterā, after the last storm, which was a major snow event but obviously not a āclassic Norāeasterā.
But honestly I think that phrasing kind of undersells the potential. If itās a direct hit, this would be more than a run of the mill Norāeaster, and Iām not really thinking in terms of snow. Very large, very deep, fairly slow moving low coming in on a full moon. In a worst case scenario, there are catastrophic outcomes on the table here, albeit everything would have to come together ājust soā for that to happen. It remains very much possible, and probably more likely, that the storm misses out to sea entirely or is a graze with still potentially significant but less destructive impacts. But worth being aware of the high end potentials in this case and leveraging that probabilistic communicationā¦
Thank you WxWatcher.
Out to sea sounds good
Thank you. And I agree with ssk. Out to sea sounds good.
WxW do you have any weather forums like this one that youād suggest for my niece who lives just east of San Francisco?
Sorry, Iām a keep moving southeast.
The moon is full 5pm Monday.
A storm of this intensity would make a major impact for the coastal and communities on the south shore some distance inland.
Major flooding and multi day power outages would be possible.
12z GFS AI….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012712&fh=126&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=sfcwind_mslp&m=aigfs
Both the 6z and 12z GFS AI are about the same but were noticeably NW from the 0z run last night.
Look at the total QPF on that baby.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026012712&fh=156&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
In fact, I make need to take a break from here later in the week, if Iām sensing people hoping for this intensity a system to come closer.
The weather will do what it will do and I know no one on here wants anything impactful for anyone, at the same time, please keep in mind that it would be so impactful for so many.
If itās 985-990 mb, fine weāll take our chances and Iāll hope it comes closer, but in the low 960s mb, no !
I may do the same. Shades of 2015 when I felt the same.
12z GFS Ensemble Mean:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012712&fh=126&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&m=gefsens
Seems to be consolidating more with each run. Most of the SE members are gone. Still some NW bombs closer to the coast but a lot of these members would deliver a glancing to significant hit for SE areas.
Next frame:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026012712&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
UGH…
Honestly I canāt manage any more snow here. Our snow banks are pulled high and deep.
12z ICON ensemble mean with more spread and still plenty of members w/NW of the mean:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=iconens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026012712&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Next frame:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=iconens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026012712&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
12z Canadian Ensemble Mean:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026012700&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Next frame:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026012700&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Eric Fisher
@ericfisher
20m
Some wild output continues for the Sunday storm. Definitely the type that will pop an with deep low pressure and some extreme winds
Still to early to know exact track 4+ days out. But to start, I’d be most concerned with Cape Cod/Islands impact and we will go from there
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/2016188938956714353?s=20
eweather
@Eweather13
41m
12z GFS brings a blizzard to SE MA Sunday and significant coastal impacts – especially that south shore area of E MA around Scituate that gets hammered by norāeasters.
Back in CT, windy with a few light snow showers, but thatās it – per this model run.
Important to note VA gets crushed by snow in the run.
Low tracks east and then takes a jog north. Is that right or does it move NE which could push snow back west in SNE? TBD.
https://x.com/Eweather13/status/2016184090622386220?s=20
I donāt mind the heavy snow impacts though I prefer a bit of a hiatus as thereās little room for new snow. I absolutely donāt like wind. Heavy snow + high winds = disaster. No thank you.
Not to mention coastal flooding….
I think thereās a different season analogy for this next event weāre watching for inland areas.
Over the next decades of summers, the next potential Long Island Express (strong 3 at potential landfall) is on the half the models and the other half are grazes or misses.
The hits are right up central or eastern Long Island, straight north thru some part of central/eastern CT or central MA and the misses are 200 miles SE of Nantucket.
Iād be posting the links everyday, over analyzing them and talking about them too much, but, I would be careful in what I wrote with respect to any hints of what I hope might happen.
And I guess thatās all I hope people will think about here if these pressures continue at such lows.
Again, if itās not so intense, Iāll be right there with you hoping it comes closer.
Euro AI more of a side swipe
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012712&fh=156&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_aifs
12z Euro AI is well SE of the benchmark:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026012712&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
But still close enough to crush the Cape with 1.4″ QPF and even still manages 0.5″ QPF into Boston but just barely.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026012712&fh=198&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Not to worry, the regular euro will be off shore, guaranteed.
At least for the 12Z run. Later runs TBD.
Yep, looks like it. Most interested in the ensembles though. Usually an indication of how much play there is for the track to shift, if they have decent spread.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2026012712&fh=90
It certainly is an impressive disturbance at 500 mb dropping into the eastern US !!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2026012712&fh=96
And getting more so with time.
No wonder the potential once it hits the coast is so explosive.
Itās a thing of beauty at 500 mb even in its infancy.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2026012712&fh=102
Wow. That is a big infant
Another 100-150 miles northwest, and all of us get crushed. That isnāt much.
12z Euro looks about the same as 0z but noticing the timing/evolution is all a bit slower on 12z. Not sure if there is any significance to that one way or the other.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2026012712&fh=120
Wow !!
The whole thing closes off and bombs out too far south off the Carolinas, which is good news if you dont want major impacts here. That needs to happen further north if this thing is going to track closer to the benchmark.
Scrapes the Cape at closest pass:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026012712&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
FWIW 12z Euro AI has another coastal storm for Friday 2/6:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026012712&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Pattern will continue to support chances regardless what happens this weekend.
It sure does.
Need a more northerly flow for this weekend … which certainly could happen. Not that I’m up for more.
2015 repeat, no doubt about it.
I am with those that might need to take a break later this week. This spells disaster if it comes closer. Roof weight, major coastal flooding, etc. I am already dealing with some ice dams forming from the 23 inches we just had and spent hours today roof raking.
Wow North, 23 inches?? Either I measured wrong or I got stuck in a snow hole. I see your schools had a 2-hr delay. I’m very curious how towns fared with a delay vs cancellation.
I have a feeling this one is out to sea Iād be willing to bet .
Go to home depot or lowes and get roof pucks. They can take care of ice dams.
Thanks.
Looks like there was still a lot of cleanup to be had from what I am hearing, but these DPW workers were out for almost 2 days straight.
12Z Euro ensembles.
Most members well off shore
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2026012712/eps-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png
Gfs ensembles
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2026012712/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png
Canadian ensemble mean
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&rh=2026012712&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Although we cannot write the weekend storm off at this point, it is beginning to look more and more like an off shore solution.
We never stop watching!!!
What day was it last week where the stop was off shore and started moving back? Around Tues or Wed? I really don’t remember.
What is it that the AI models do, that consistently has storms come closer than their regular models? What are they learning?
Interesting…..
Previously, they had most of hits as OTS or grazes. I have seen no distinctive pattern other than streaky “behavior”.
It is interesting. A lot of those AI actually utilize data from traditional models. I think GenCast, the AI model from Google DeepMind, got started by importing 40 years of Euro data.
The AI models do learn on their own but they continue to absorb traditional model data too … yet they come out with different solutions.
With very limited sample size, I’ve noticed the AIGFS tends to look more like the GFS and the AIFS more like ECMWF solutions, but perhaps I’m looking for that (what have others noticed?)
But the point about the model data: the AI models train off reanalysis. If we had perfect spatial observations of all Earth atmosphere at high time frequency we wouldn’t need the reanalysis, but obviously we don’t. So reanalysis data of the full 3d atmospheric state, while being effectively nudged to observations, inherently contains all the (physics-based) model problems/biases etc. we know and love, in some form or another.
What is/was the OE folks here were discussing during the storm?
From what I was able to understand, OE referred to the front that was moving east to west causing the temperature to rise.
What does OE stand for? I am guessing “Onshore Energy.” ???
What’s the difference between an OE and a norlun?
Thanks! š
Ocean Effect
Ah, of course! Thanks, Longshot!
This was a great lengthy discussion with two of cbs bostonās meteorologists about the potential on sunday: https://youtu.be/g005uqWJ6xE
I think a lot of the weather nerds here would love it.
Tom 2 hour delay for you tomorrow. Pembroke dropped the ball big time today !!!!
I won’t be disappointed if the weekend storm misses. To have a major snowstorm last weekend and a moderate snowstorm just after Christmas I can’t complain the way this winter has been so far.
I’m not looking forward to another one either.
Looking back through last week’s discussion, the similarities are uncanny. I know it’s a totally different setup, but on Monday, models were split but nothing showed a major storm up here, either way OTS or some snow. By later Tues evening, starting with the 18z euro is when it really became apparent, we would get something, but it was still questionable if it would be big. Consensus by Wed morning was that we would get something significant, but not top 10.
Thank you ACE. I thought it was close to that.
Will be watching 18Z Euro which I won’t have available until 7:45-8:00 PM.
18z ICON is way out to sea
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2026012718&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Getting farther all the time!!!
18z ICON Ensemble Mean however has many members closer to the coast….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=iconens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026012718&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Next Frame….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012718&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&m=iconens
And next…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=iconens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026012718&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
There are actually a LOT of hits in there closer to the coast. Several of them so close we would flip to rain. Not surprisingly the mean is also closer to the coast.
Lots of spread/uncertainty still with that model. Then again, this is the ICON…..
Here is a vague question. Quite a few years ago there was a snow storm that was well OTS and it was throwing snow back at us while 400-600 miles off the coast. Does anyone remember that?
YES, that was the system in March 2013. The storm was halfway to Bermuda and it had a moisture fetch all the way back to SNE. Very odd setup. I got 20″ out of that one.
This storm was a month after NEMO/the Blizzard of 2013. Though all that snow from that storm had since melted.
We ended up with 100″ of snow that winter in Coventry but never had a consistent snowpack since it always warmed up in between systems. Classic example of a winter that produced a ton of snow but wasnt particularly cold.
Thank you for the reminder.
Well the12z Korean model is still a hit….
https://x.com/reid_lt/status/2016235939303956768?s=20
The new 12z Canadian PARA model (which I understand is the AI version of the Canadian model) also delivers for much of SNE:
https://x.com/Eweather13/status/2016213388028723689?s=20
Snowing lightly here in Hartford with a coating on the ground again. Wasnt expecting this today.
Makes our snow look like a dusting….
Massimo
@Rainmaker1973
13h
Sapporo, Japan, had the heaviest snowfall ever recorded for the month of January.
https://x.com/Rainmaker1973/status/2016066973344395741?s=20
No changes to my outlook after 12z data review.
While it’s still very early, my idea remains “outside” for the weekend threat, but “outside” does not necessarily mean “miss”.
This evolution makes me think of a similar one: February 9 1987.
Winds
TBD
Interesting, thanks TK. Previous event you were leaning a closer pass than modeled at the same timeframe prior to the event and you ended up right. Here’s hoping you are right this time as well.
Time will tell, as always, but this is definitely my feeling at this point.
18z GFS AI is SE of the benchmark but close enough for impacts…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026012718&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
QPF:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026012718&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
That’s warning level snows for much of southeast New England and a crush job for the Cape. Perhaps even enough for 6″+ back to Hartford.
18z GFS operational crushes the Outer Banks and Cape Cod. Wind and snow impacts eventually for all of Eastern MA.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012718&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012718&fh=117&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012718&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Yikes. Not a SE trend with that run….
Way too early . Nobody wants it
Hammers eastern MA with snow and wind for nearly 20 hours on that run. 12-20″ Kuchera…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012718&fh=132&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
TK – What exactly occurred on February 9, 1987?
https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1987/19870202-19870208.pdf
https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1987/19870209-19870215.pdf
Thanks Keith.
From a met on the American Weather forum…..
Growing up during the age of Miller A’s, I will say this… Some of the biggest busts I’ve witnessed and studied were intense Miller A storms. Error / bust potential is often much less when dealing with Miller B events. Given the historic look of the absurdly digging 500 mb trough, I would be very wary of this escaping too far east?
While history making events are always possible, that 500 mb evolution is beyond extreme! If it develops as modeled, then it’s one for the record books. I think it would be wise to assume its (500 mb) intensity is not going to be as intense as modeled.
Lots to consider; where will the primary form, does it jump / reform well to the east, or does it get tugged westward, stall, loop, ???
Thumb through the Kocin book(s) and you will find examples of Miller A’s that were expected to graze southeastern SNE, and to everyone’s surprise, ended up throwing heavy snow back into eastern NY? Not saying this one will, but the evolution of the 500 mb level tells me this is not a simple escape east situation.
I think a more western track evolves on modeling tomorrow.
Most of those biggies in the 90’s were Miller A’s.
Refresh my memory..
Miller A develop in gulf and move up coast.
Miller B come from west and mid west go up Ohio valley and tedevelop on the coast. Did I get it ass backwards?
You are correct>
https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/2025-01-15-noreaster-storm-miller-type-winter-clipper
Thanks Mark.
Miller A: Classic Gulf Wave type storm, or one that forms off the Southeast Coast and is one main low, up the coast – can be inside runner, coastal hugger, or offshore track.
Miller B: Primary low into Ohio Valley or somewhere in that area (can be further north or further south), secondary coastal low forms and tracks up coast or offshore, depending on pattern.
The storm we just had was a form of Miller B.
A classic example of a memorable Miller A is Super Storm 1993.
Thank you sir. Glad my memory has not fully escaped me. š
I Would like to know now if we are getting this storm. This not knowing drives me nuts. If it’s not coming, fine, life goes on. If it is coming would be nice to be able to prepare. I’M going to the store tomorrow and will pick uo extra items just in case. Better safe than sorry.
A wise move. Thatās just what I did before the last one.
Agree, better safe than sorry. I am not terribly concerned out my way but Eastern MA has a better shot at snow and wind impacts and of course, the coastal flooding. Even a non-direct hit could have significant impacts like the 18z GFS is showing.
Eric believes that by Thursday we āshouldā have a firm grasp. His exact words.
That’s about the typical time frame. š
To the WHW family.
All of you have been anxious about the last snow storm, supermarket shopping, the Pats, shoveling out, and the upcoming pattern. So I have decided to provide all of you with a great sense of relief. I checked the tropics and there are no immediate threats!
Thank GOODNESS! š
I am laughing so hard I have tears
Philip…
February 9 1987 was the second of two storms called “Cape Blizzards” by myself and colleagues. The storm, lasting into February 10, dumped 20+ inches of snow on much of Cape Cod with up to several foot high drifts. I believe Boston’s snow total from this storm was just under 4 inches, and I had about 2 inches here in the NW suburbs. This storm was forecast to be big hit for all of southern New England just one day before its arrival, and scooted a little further offshore, nailing the Cape and sparing everyone else. Even Providence RI only recorded 2.2 inches from the event.
This followed a very similar event that occurred on January 26 1987 when 10 to 20 inches fell on Cape Cod and a rapid drop off to just light amounts in the Boston area.
Thanks TK. I guess that ācouldā happen again to the Cape. We will see.
18z GEFS Ensembles about the same as 12z. Pretty far NW:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026012718&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Next Frame. That’s not far off the benchmark:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026012718&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
On this date in 1934, much of the country, in sharp contrast to the current cold snap, was in the grips of a large “January thaw”, with about 50% of the Lower 48 having high temps of 60 degrees or higher.
That would have been long before global warming.
Light snow here.
I just looked out the window, saw huge flakes, said oh dear God and looked away. This from a lifelong snow lover. What had happened to me
Someone in the Marshfield police dept, who by the way are awesome and I give an A+++++++ to, erred.
They retracted that 2 hr delay and then the superintendent called and said we are a full day go tomorrow. Yay !
I saw that
Bill Belichick not going into the 2026 hall of Fame. I have opinions probably like everyone else.
Interesting.
ESPN is reporting some insight as to what may have happened behind the scenes amongst some voters.
When we went out about 4pm, Iām looking at the flags and thereās a tower flag at the Marshfield exit and they were absolutely SW winds.
So clearly, some boundary is coming through with this scattered snow activity this evening.
Hi all. Skunked on wordle today after three shots only missing the first letter. Ugh!
Curious what anyone else thought of Mike Wankums explanation of the Euro and GFS and why you canāt make confident predictions this far out when models arenāt aligned. I thought it was substantive but good for the non-whw informed observer.
Itās been a tough Wordle day. Nice try.
Mike is an excellent weather forecaster but unfortunately many donāt like him here & I really donāt know why . Mike did good he put out there 3 potential ideas & said itās to early . I think he is a responsible forecaster
For the month of January, the USA holds a couple of unique, obscure, and unusual world-wide weather records. I have read about them more than once. Both occurred in Montana.
1) On January 14-15th 1972 in in Loma, MT, the temperature rose 103F within 24 hours, jumping from -54Ā°F to 49Ā°F. It is considered the greatest 24 hour temperature rise ever recorded in the world.
2) On January 11, 1980 in Great Falls, MT, the temperature rose 47Ā°F in just 7 minutes, rising from -32Ā°F to 15Ā°F. It is considered the fastest temperature rise ever recorded (I have some doubts about this.)
Both have been attributed to Chinook winds.
Verbatim that 18z GFS Ensemble mean is another 15-20ā eastern MA and gets 6-10ā back to the NYS line. Add in the wind and this is bad newsā¦
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_01/gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-total_precip_inch-0055200.png.87cbad8a30f1ce3b921b707956a631a5.png
Thatās a decent jump NW from 12z.
Uh ohā¦.
18z Euro and Euro EPS big jump NW as well.
No S**t!!! Huge jump NW.
Have to watch this closely.
GFS is the highest now , this couid also be felt more on the cape
Middleboro schools are closed tomorrow for the third consecutive day.
All of NFL twitter saying the same thing about the Bill Belichick snub: https://ibb.co/M58YHg45
I went around collecting screenshots
I like ESPNās reporting and reading btwn the lines, they focus on Bill Polina, former Colts GM during the Manning/Brady rivalry.
He understandably hated the Pats and Belicheck and the Pats got the better of the Colts during that long stretch.
He would go to the rules committee hoping to change rules based on what the Pats were doing. I would suspect itās him behind the scenes who persuaded voters.
But Bill owns a bit of this with his treatment of media who are some of the voters and then of course spygate.
Polian
Assuming it is Polina – he absolutely majorly damaged the HOF. This news just came out and as you can see everyone is speaking out. There will be a flood of voices. Are they going to try to push tom to wait because of that BS deflategate? Bill won multiple championships after the spygate drama.
Agreed on all points.
https://weather.us/radar-us/951446847d947534e5a7299cc7e08b14/reflectivity/KBOX_20260128-003740z.html
Quick, but probably extremely heavy for a couple mins if your under these squalls.
Canyon, Stoughton and Walpole.
I can conquer, itās crazy!
Enjoy !
If it ends up the weekend storm will be more of a hit, Iāve definitely got to clear snow off the top of our camper and maybe get some off our deck. Itās a new deck, but still, Iām sure thereās a weight point at which there could be a problem.
Also, the downwind side of my roof has some drifts of what looks like 3ft on it, in spots.
I bought a snowrake for the roof in 2015. I pulled it out of storage this afternoon just in case.
Our roof is pitched enough. I think.
Snow rake!! Thanks Captain, maybe I will invest in one.
Tom you can borrow one if needed as we are only less than 20 minutes from each other . Iām not feeling it for weekend event
Thanks SSK !!
Iām worrying about our deck too. Itās also new but there is a lot of snow there. My uxbridge SIL said it would be ok but ā¦..
And heās probably right, unless we put a lot more on it and what the density of the new snow would be.
Reading the americanwx boards about any storm is funny. Thereās a large quotient of people who are very emotionally tied to each run. One run says out to sea? Itās over. Pack it up. No storm. Next run moves a little north east? Blockbuster. Sure thing. Gunna happen. Moves away next run? Dud. On to the next one. Rinse repeat. Itās entertaining.
I am of the belief that this behavior is indicative of a “problem”. I’ve seen enough of it now that I don’t think I’m overreacting. It’s the real deal.
It is entertaining and I like to pop in there, especially when there is a storm threat. There are lots of Mets in there who contribute including Ryan Hanrahan, Scott Nogueira, and many others. I pay attention mostly to their posts but there are many amateurs on there as well that make model posts that I donāt have access to.
I had to shovel one section that had not been done yet, and after last night’s snow my total for the storm was just shy of 20 inches. This is the most lightweight 20 inches of snow I have ever seen. There’s hardly any water in it.
Quite a difference down here.
That could be said of our first half a foot.
But after that, much more dense.
Put it this way, the top layer, when I would shovel it or try to get it off our cars, was breaking into cubed pieces. Large pieces that would thud a bit hitting the ground or wherever they landed.
Agree
Our roof in Framingham
https://ibb.co/0pFz2W65
Part of my roof had drifts just as big. Tried to tackle it with my roof rake. Didnāt get it well enough. Went up on a ladder. Not too terribly smart of me butā¦ Heyā¦ enough snow for a soft landing if I fell.
Thatās what I thought today too! Soft landing!
Many years ago I was talking to Macās mom on phone. There was a crash She asked what it was. I told her it was just her son sliding. Off the roof. He was fine. Lots of snow then
Wow, having someone up there gives an easy comparison to see how deep that is.
Bill Polian was asked and said it is categorically untrue and that he in fact voted for Bill Belichick.
Ok, thanks Dr Stupid !
With the well below freezing temp and the low water content, this should sublimate rather quickly.
Tom, that was a quite potent snow shower. Like you said. Visibility came way down.
I see the cell that got you.
Just north of Brockton is the strongest one, about to get them.
Was here too
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=box&issuedby=BOX&product=pns
Final totals from the NWS.
Who won the contest?
We didnāt.
The marshfield or nearest to Marshfield ob was 19.7ā
We were 27F by 5pm Sunday evening and of course, being further south, was also closer to where the 700 mb temp was approaching -2C
So, really a different snow on the ground than all the fluff/powder everyone else is reporting.
23.1 for pembroke not bad at all .
These numbers never jive for me. I don’t know who or how one becomes a spotter but we’ve got an over 4 inch difference in acton, 5 inches in Middleton, an 6 inches between neighboring towns during a storm that was pretty uniform in its dispersion. There was over two feet in the lynfield, Middleton, north reading, reading area without question..some spotters said yes some said no…what is the truth and what gets put in the record books…don’t like the system
In a storm of this magnitude, with that high a snow-to-water ratio, a 4 or 5 inch difference across one fairly large sized down (and Acton is NOT small), is not unusual at all. I spend a lot of time in Acton, and I have driven across the town to observe such differences in person, so I’d heavily lean toward these numbers being correct, as both of those observers are pretty consistently good.
Middleton: Not that small either, and also elevation differences, and in the vicinity of a coastal front and a band of ocean enhanced snow for part of the storm. A 5-inch difference across the town I completely buy.
A difference of up to several inches in neighboring towns is nothing unusual (again in a large magnitude storm with high ratio snowfall).
I was once recorded a 10 inch ocean effect snowfall here in Woburn, while just 3 miles to my south in Winchester, only 2 inches fell. Driving from here to there to observe the gradient was pretty wild.
Don’t forget the event just a couple winters ago in which the snowfall in eastern Essex County was 0.6 inch and in western Essex County was 21 inches.
The NWS relies on spotters, and they have guidelines about measuring snow. While it’s never going to be perfect, having observed this system in action since I started measuring snow myself at age 10 in 1978, it actually works quiet well.
What are your suggestions to improve the current system?
I hear you and generally agree with your assessment, but I can’t help but feel there needs to be a better way. Ultimately I think automating the process via robots or something akin to what we would call a robot is the answer, but that’s probably 5-10 years away
Is there an output that removes far outliers from the ensembles? Or does the mean already do that?
The mean is an average of all the ensembles including the outliers. So yes, a few SE outliers in this case for example could skew the ensemble mean low center further southeast even if the majority of the ensembles are NW of the mean.
Thanks Mark! Was hoping thereās an output that removes far outliers.
That squall got us.
Feather dusting/coating.
Crazy snow globe for a couple minutes.
Nothing here
It came sometime after I posted as I just let dogs out & cars covered In snow again .
Go for Snow. Replying to your comment above.
I am a new spotter. And we can easily have a few inches difference in sutton. When I call in my report, I always specify it is for SE Sutton
Training now is online.
There are two reports for Lunenburg. They both say NE, which I guess means northeast. One report is 20.1″ and the other is 12.0″.
Certainly the 20.1″ is more accurate. They both have the same three digits, so maybe there was really only one report that got listed twice with the digits in different orders.
I don’t think that NE Lunenburg needs two reports š
Thatās odd. If it happens again I can ask. But my guess is numbers may have been mixed up. There were so many reports called in and most are called multiple times every so many intervals
Maybe the lower number was an earlier report that should have been replaced by the later one.
Ohhh that makes sense. There should be a time.
JR said āThursdayā as well. I assume thereās consensus on that much about the Sunday potential.
Well, I talk about this all the time. Inside 4 days.
Before that, it’s just about watching trends mostly on ensembles and keeping an eye on the overall pattern set-up.
From the Uxbridge PD. This is the family of the Uxbridge officer who was killed in an accident while on a detail
The New England Patriots are Sending Shannon LaPorta and Matthew LaPorta to the Super Bowl.
There are no words. Unbelievable. Absolutely unreal.
What a way to honor Steve. 3ļøā£1ļøā£
#letsfinishthisforsteve #winfor31 #gopats
0Z Canadian is off shore as well as the UKMET, but the GFS is a crush job. What will the 0Z Euro have to say. Will it continue
the NW trend or go back to the SE??????
0z ICON was largely out to sea as well but its ensemble mean was well NW again and delivers accumulating snow to all of SNE.
0z GFS and its ensemblesā¦oh my, even further NW. 20ā Boston and 6-10ā back into the eastern half of CT.
Interested to see the 0z Canadian ensembles after the op run went out to sea and of course the 0z Euro and EPS.
0z Euro and Euro AI runningā¦
0z Euro AI looks a tick SE of 18z. Still mostly a Cape Cod special.
I’d call that 2 ticks SE. š
How accurate are these AI models so far?
Results are quite variable.
A lot more observing is required to really know how useful they’ll become, but they are not likely going anywhere except becoming more widely used.
0z Euro operational is also a cape cod special.
6z GFS back SE and now just sideswipes the Cape. 6z ICON about the same.
Looks like the models may be starting to agree on a solution though still 4 days outā¦.
Agree. 18z Euro and 0z gfs may have been the last hurrah on this one.
OR, is this the Bernie Rayno Windshield wiper effect?
Time will tell.
I think I will be sitting out on this one as it looks right now.
New post…