Wednesday January 28 2026 Forecast (7:28AM)

284 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

A very cold pattern rolls on into the coming weekend to end January. It’s a dry one for now as well, between our last winter storm and an upcoming threat, with just a chance of snow showers from a passing disturbance from late today into tonight and a few ocean-effect snow showers possible on Cape Cod Thursday. Like last weekend, we’ll see high clouds spreading into the region by Saturday ahead of the next winter weather threat, which stems from a developing ocean storm well south of New England. This system is destined to take a northeastward track, and I lean toward a pass well to the southeast of here, but with a large enough system that we get into its envelope of gusty wind and probably at least part of the region experiences its snow area on Sunday. This configuration would bring the greatest chance of accumulating snow the further east and southeast you are in our region, but it’s far too soon to say just how much of an impact it will have and how far west the snow shield would extend. Stay tuned.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers late-day. Highs 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Lows 4-11. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy with a chance of snow shower Outer Cape Cod. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to +4. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 15-22. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +2. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 7-14. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Highs 18-25. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast, with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Snow chance around February 5 to early February 6, preceded by dry and cold weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Temperatures below normal but with more variation and a couple chances of snow showers as cold air is reinforced, but overall a quieter pattern in terms of storm threats.

284 thoughts on “Wednesday January 28 2026 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    0z Euro, 0z Euro AI, 6z GFS, and 6z ICON back SE and now largely just sideswipe the Cape and SE MA.

    Looks like the models may be starting to agree on a solution for now, though still 4 days out….

    Reply

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Models seem all over the place on this up coming threat. Are we experiencing the Bernie Rayno ” Windshield Wiper Effect”??? OR is the off shore solution locked in now?
    Fascinating to watch.

    Reply

      1. Wasn’t brilliant, it was just a productive 1st guess for a change. Got 1st 2 letters correct and 1 other out of position. From there I got it.

        Reply

  10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2026012800&fh=126&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    A complete guess, but I’d lean more offshore because

    2nd link, the NAO is trending from slightly negative to neutral on Feb 1st

    and …..

    1st link, this translates at 500 mb to progressive flow to our north and east, no real blocking and then to our west, no real extension back at 500 mb in the Ohio valley to tug it closer to the coast.

    Reply

    1. But if you think back to 2015, there was no blocking either and look what happened.
      Anything can still happen with this one.

      I understand why you don’t want too see this one happen.
      Are you sure of the tides?
      Last night Pete said tides were only 9,1 feet and he wasn’t too worried about coastal flooding. So one of you is mistaken and I know not which. 🙂

      Reply

      2. True on 2015 but I think the deep trof was centered overall a little further west and so, when something rounded the trof, it has a better chance of being closer to the coast.

        Reply

        1. Could well be. Time will tell. I hate this back and forth. Is it coming or not??
          That’s what I want to know.

          I do think we get some impact, but likely not the brunt of it.

          Reply

  11. Last night Pete B. Was certain we would get “some” impact. IN Fact, he said the following:

    40-60% chance 6 inches
    20-40% 12 inches
    10-20% 18 inches

    Then he said we’re where we were last week at this time.

    He appeared very worried. Perhaps I was reading him wrong?????

    Reply

    1. I think any worry you may read could be due to how impactful that 10-20% could be coupled with the damaging winds and roof weight.

      Reply

  13. JpDave you were mentioning 2015 and no blocking present during that snow blitz. I don’t know why a lot of people think if you don’t have a negative NAO you can’t get a big storm. The Blizzard of 2013 the NAO was slightly positive and I got 30 inches of snow.

    Reply

  17. Predictions for 12z EURO…. Stays similar to 6z run, tracks further east, or moves a little further west.
    I am saying tracks further east

    Reply

  19. Some awesome Wordle scores. Beyond happy for your 2, JPD.

    Wordle 3 for me with a ton of luck. My new first two words gave me all five letters with two of them
    In correct position

    Reply

  20. Thank you, TK. We are 11 up from 4.

    Never thought I’d root for a snow miss. I know I have some not great emotions/memories from 2015. But I also remember the danger that created. I know it’s not 100 inches but still just can’t bring myself to believe it would not be a risk

    Reply

  21. I have changed my mind about wanting a storm. Clearly there is not a damn thing I can do about it but I am officially is Camp Out to Sea!

    Reply

      1. I won’t be writing anything off until we are closer and the mets have a chance to interpret the data. But, I can hope.

        Reply

  22. It “looks” like the 12Z NAM is setting up for an off shore solution

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012812&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500wh&rh=2026012812&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500wh&rh=2026012812&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=200wh&rh=2026012812&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Of course it is the NAM and it is 84 hours which is not really in the NAM wheel house.

    Reply

  24. Yes, no blocking is needed.

    But, if there is none, then either the center of the big trof needs to be enough to the west to parallel the flow along the east coast, or the atlantic ridge has to nudge a little to the west or you need some upper reflection of the low bridging back west to the Ohio Valley to help tug the low a bit closer to the coast.

    Reply

    1. And because I don’t think you have ANY of the other 3 happening, its probably and THANKFULLY a graze or miss.

      Unless one of those change, which is always possible.

      Reply

  28. Definitely the most beautiful week (weather-wise) in years in Boston. I realize it’s not everyone’s cup of tea. I completely respect that. Most of my friends think I’m crazy, by the way.

    Reply

    3. All VALID, assuming the ICON has those features all placed in the proper locations and who knows if that is correct or not. 🙂

      Reply

  32. Colleague and I chatted..

    Current thinking leads to a storm analog of January 26 1987.

    This does NOT represent a definitive call.

    This is also not based on any single operational model run.

    Reply

        2. If I’m correct I believe south shore pembroke / Marshfield escaped big snow with that one as well ( classic cape cod event ) correct

          Reply

  34. 40 years ago today I suspect many remember where they were. Mac and I had just returned from a pregnancy visit. I was standing in the family room watching the lift off of the Challenger. I called Mac in and asked if what I’d just seen was supposed to happen. It was all surreal.

    https://youtu.be/CkMrqKzJpJ8

    Reply

    2. The wobbles run to run are normal for our model guidance, especially 4+ days out.

      Hence the ensembles and their trends are utilized.

      The run to run wobbles on operational models are not going to stop. The execution of simulation is just not good enough to do that.

      Reply

  37. Its funny, at 500 mb, the ICON and the GFS have the center of the upper low at the same exact spot.

    But the GFS has the left semi circle of the 500 mb low extending further west than the ICON.

    At least the 00z Friday night or the 12z Saturday before we probably have consistency.

    Reply

    1. Hope we get it before that.

      What we do NOT NOT NOT want is for the forecast to be a complete miss and then 0Z Sunday runs say, OOPS never mind. FULL BLOWN HIT COMING!!!!

      Reply

      2. I remember the Boxing Day blizzard back in 2008 I think? Was going to be a miss wide right up to Xmas eve, then all of a sudden it was coming! Was that yhe first storm of the blog?

        Reply

  38. I remember the Boxing Day blizzard back in 2008 I think? Was going to be a miss wide right up to Xmas eve, then all of a sudden it was coming! Was that yhe first storm of the blog?

    Reply

  40. The Canadian has come NW against its 00z run.

    I don’t take that to mean its coming NW, I just take that to mean that 12z op runs won’t have cleared anything up.

    Maybe the ensembles will have more consistency??

    Reply

    2. Agree that it’s come north a bit but if you look at the two envelopes of snow, the 12z spreads its snow shield further west. I’m not sure that’s entirely due to the northward displacement.

      Reply

      1. I agree, a total miss is not likely.

        Some combination of graze,side-swipe or even possibly hit.

        Could a total miss still happen? Yes, of course.

        Reply

        1. Agree on all points. Nothing is off the table. Yet, a sideswipe with a moderate snowfall in Boston with a more significant snowfall SE and little to none NW seems most plausible to me at this time.

          Reply

  45. Now, I have a very legitimate question.

    So watching many of these models, it shows the low
    vertically stacked with closed lows at 500 mb and 300 mb
    and a 200 mb almost due South to North, yet the models still move the surface low ENE TO NE, MUCH MUCH farther East
    than one would expect based on the upper flow.

    So then, what is causing that? The only thing I can come up with is the Coriolis effect.

    The Coriolis effect NOAA’s National Ocean Service Education describes the apparent curvature of objects or fluids (like air and ocean currents) moving long distances across the Earth’s surface, caused by the planet’s rotation. It forces winds and currents to deflect to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere

    Does that answer the question OR is something else driving this Eastward movement?

    Many thanks

    Reply

  46. Have to watch 1 more thing at 500 mb

    A piece of energy, even a small closed low over Hudson Bay.

    It is WAY south on the UK Met and I’ll bet that is helping to nudge the east coast trof further east than the other models. Its why the UK Met is such a miss to the SE

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=500wh&rh=2026012812&fh=108&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2026012812&fh=108&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    UkMet (link 1) vs GFS (link 2)

    This piece of energy can have some impact and needs to be resolved !!

    Reply

    1. It’s the UKMET. It hasn’t exactly portrayed itself as a stellar mode.

      12Z EURO may tip the scales. You’ll want that one to trend EAST again.

      Reply

      1. 1,000% agree !!

        But, I do think that piece of energy over Hudson Bay has to be resolved for its strength and location because it can exert a little push or non-push to the eastern trof depending on where it is and I doubt the models have that resolved, especially because it is probably over an area devoid of balloon data.

        Reply

    1. Well, the Pats never passed again after that supposedly happened late in the game.

      So, what is the weather or maybe could he not pass?

      Reply

  49. Speaking of blocking, the models have blocking around Greenland showing up in the long range.

    As if we might not have had enough snow and cold, by then.

    Reply

  51. I encountered some interesting comments from a retiring well-known Dutch meteorologist, Gerrit Hiemstra, on use of the word “storm.” He was writing in Dutch and on a Dutch website. He was responding to the Dutch news incorrectly translating our “winter storm” as a storm in the Dutch sense of the word. In Dutch, storm explicitly denotes a weather event in which sustained wind speeds are equal to or exceed 9 on the Beaufort scale. A rarity in Boston, but a fairly common occurrence in the Netherlands and quite common in Ireland and the British Isles. Though associated with areas of low pressure, these wind events don’t have to involve much precipitation (they often don’t) and it’s almost always in the form of rain. What we call a snowstorm would not qualify as a storm in the Netherlands unless sustained wind speed is equal to or above 9 on the Beaufort scale.

    In his piece, Hiemstra explained the American use of the word storm.

    When my children were young, they happened to be on the same flight as Hiemstra, who was visiting Boston at the time.

    Reply

  52. Today, more ensemble members are further east than yesterday.

    THAT is what to pay more attention to, not the operational runs yet.

    Reply

  53. I think there pushing the wind more vs snow this time around with cape cod snow potentially through the south shore ( maybe )

    Reply

  56. There is a very deep snow cover on the ground.

    Eastern areas, along the coast, who have some of the deepest snow cover, probably won’t experience a total miss, even if the sun is visible on the western horizon and not a flake of snow flies.

    Even the most eastward solution likely tightens up the gradient for a while Sunday afternoon.

    Winds sustained btwn 20 and 30, gusting to 45 mph can cause enough blowing and drifting of snow to cover some roads in some places and likely send wind chills down pretty low.

    And there’d still be some splashover at high tide, if not minor flooding here and there.

    Reply

  58. Friday is really cold on the models !!!!! Single digits on the Euro, low-mid teens on the GFS. Low teens on the Canadian, single digits on the Icon.

    Reply

  59. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012812&fh=96&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2026012812&fh=102&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2026012812&fh=90&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

    Road trip to the Outer Banks,

    some real nice houses in Corolla and Cape Hatteras

    They can fit up to 20 people

    Elevators, game rooms, movie theatres.

    split the cost, not that expensive 🙂

    Reply

  61. 12z Euro EPS a slight tick SE from 6z but still gets an inch QPF to the Canal, 0.5” QPF to Boston and 0.25” to Hartford. Would still be warning level snows for a lot of Eastern MA

    Reply

  62. Ace: That Boxing Day blizzard was in 2010, the first day of this WHW blog. However, most of us (myself included) were still on that awful WBZ blog.

    If I’m not mistaken, Vicki may have been on here that first day. Not sure about anyone else who is still here.

    Reply

    1. Yes! and the back and forth continues.

      Not sure what it means, but now when a model shifts South and East, it is still a decent scrape, graze or side-swipe, whatever you choose to call it. Before the shifts to S&E were basically complete misses.

      for completeness, here is the 12Z 10:1. Remember we’ll have a reasonable ratio of 12 to 15:1 or thereabouts.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026012812&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Reply

  64. Answering JPDave from earlier:

    There is also a detailed explanation of the Coriolis force on wikipedia. The Coriolis force is a dominant term in atmospheric dynamics (yes, you can think of it as deflecting an object to the right in the northern hemisphere, but to answer your primary question as “due to the Coriolis force” is an oversimplification). Geostrophy is the dominant balance in atmosphere, between pressure gradient force and Coriolis force; that is why air (mainly) travels in circles around high and low pressure centers rather than simply moving from high to low. Thermal wind, i.e. why in the northern hemisphere as you ascend you have an increasing eastward jet, given the warm tropics and cold poles, is also due to geostrophy. The fundamental physics of the Coriolis force is angular momentum conservation, i.e. due to our rotating planet. The strength of the Coriolis force changes with latitude, and this has many important effects, such as Rossby waves which you can basically think of as the high and low pressure weather systems circling the globe at mid-latitudes.

    More specific to your question, I think you are wondering why the surface low is east of the stacked/closed low from 700-200mb? So baroclinic instability is occurring here, i.e. cyclogenesis, which is basically how energy is extracted/motion occurs from a block of dense cold air abutting a block of warm air, on a rotating planet (ie where such motion results in large Coriolis force terms). This is going to occur on the east side of the upper level trough, where air is moving northward. The path of the surface low as it forms will also be influenced by the “steering currents” roughly around the mid-troposphere, ~500mb. The stacked low motion will be affected by steering currents and also subsequent evolution of the upper troposphere (and sometimes, extreme surface lows can have some impact on the upper level evolution). So this is complicated… BTW models often have a tough time with specific position/motion of stacked cut-off systems if distant from the main jet stream; this is basically the same issue as to why they often don’t do so well on hurricane paths when lacking any forcing from mid-latitude systems.

    Reply

      1. Do you just not want to see the very high possibility that a total miss in a lot of areas is very , very in play . It absolutely is not out of the question .

        Reply

          2. I don’t think you have ever stated that a complete miss is not a possibility. You may not be happy with what the models are displaying but you always call it like it is.

            Reply

            1. I was dealing with HUGE icicles today. This is a very old house and is not insulated too well, so the combination of warm sun and heat escaping I have melting going on that freezes into icicles in certain places. So as much as I love snow and a good storm, I am OK with a miss on this one. If it comes it comes. If it doesn’t it doesn’t. Life goes on.

              In 2015 I had part of my roof shoveled off by a contractor. So far, no need. If this ends up a biggie I will have to incur the expense as I am simply too old to be climbing ladders, never mind the snow.

              Reply

      2. Well there are 3 or 4 that just clip the cape and Islands, but the rest deliver something to most of SNE MA and RI.

        Reply

  69. So on and on it goes. What will the 18Z and 0Z models have to say. Each run we get closer to it. The not knowing is insane

    Reply

  71. Thanks TK.

    Vicki, if you’re reading – I saw your comment asking if I knew about any analogous page to WHW for the Bay Area. Unfortunately, in my experience, WHW is pretty well one of a kind.

    It’s not really Bay Area centric, but Dr. Daniel Swain offers some really good insight on weather and climate conditions across the Western US. He does tend to push climate change narratives a little harder than I personally prefer to in routine weather discussion, but nonetheless, there’s often a lot of high quality content on his page.

    https://weatherwest.com/

    Wish I could offer more, hope you’re doing well though!!

    Reply

  72. Storm thoughts – “miss” is relative with a storm this massive. At least some coastal wind and tidal issues are quite likely, just look at how expansive the wind field is on all of the model projections, regardless of track. So in that sense, a true miss is unlikely, although the UKMET has been pretty consistent on a way east track, so we’ll see if maybe it’s got this one dialed in.

    However, my leaning right now is towards a “lesser graze” versus a “greater graze”, with a true direct hit not quite off the table but trending that way. So some wind and coastal impacts, and potentially some eastern MA/Cape Cod snow, but very far from a worst case outcome as it looks right now.

    Reply

  73. I know this is the NAM at 84 hours, but it looks to me like it is about the join the list of Partial impact models.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500wh&rh=2026012818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=300wh&rh=2026012818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    The 200 mb is just a bit flatter

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=200wh&rh=2026012818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    But this should be enough to throw the snow shield up to Boston and somewhat beyond. Will get a better look with the 0Z run.

    Reply

    1. Thanks JJ. Sounds like he is just surmising that it may be an indicator of a more NW expanse of the snow but I am not sold. I believe the snow totals on the blend model have been going down as well in conjunction with the general model trend towards a more offshore solution.

      Reply

  75. Afternoon Ideas…

    * Short range: A couple subtle changes regarding tomorrow’s forecast. Tonight might see a few snow showers mainly SW of Boston with a disturbance, but I’m not looking for a repeat of last night’s briefly intense squalls. But tomorrow’s Cape Cod snow showers may have a little bit more hit to them, with up to a few inches of fluff on the Outer Cape a potential, and there may also be isolated to scattered snow showers across the rest of SNE in the afternoon. I previously did not think those would materialize, but things are a bit more “awake” ahead of the next arctic surge due in on Friday.

    *Weekend: Cold & dry Saturday. Snow chance remains Sunday. Still looks like odds favor a side-swipe, but may be close enough for a plowable snow event for parts of the region, favoring the southeast – south of Boston through Cape Cod. There are some differences, but up here it looks like 1/26/1987 analog storm.

    *Medium Range: One more storm threat looms around 2/5, otherwise we stay cold and drift into a quieter pattern heading into mid February.

    *Long Range: Cold pattern is going nowhere at least into early March from all the indicators I have. This will likely end up as colder than last winter, overall, across the region. I also think the snowy pattern makes a return for while after February 22. Why? MJO drops back into the “circle of death” at the end of the first week of February then re-emerges about 2 weeks later after skipping phases 2 through 6, into 7, 8, and 1 from late February through early March. Opposite to last winter when it kept skipping the favorable snow phases and re-emerging into the unfavorable snow phases. I discussed this somewhat a little earlier this winter as a glimmer of hope for the snow lovers with the first cycle of the pattern initiating after January 20. We’re in that now.

    Reply

  76. 18Z RRFSA seems like the biggest miss of all of them, even worse than the UKMET. It’s 500 mb configuration is totally different than the euro, gfs and gdps.

    Reply

  77. Here’s a little more insight on the NBM, this post is a little more technical so feel free to sail right past:

    https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-model-inputs

    One thing about the NBM is that its components are not equally weighted through the duration of the model run. Shorter time stamps are more heavily weighted to hi res models, while longer lead times are weighted heavily towards numerous ensemble platforms. And obviously hi res data isn’t available beyond a few days out, so the “weighting blend” changes to compensate. There’s also a time lag component. Previous model cycles aren’t completely thrown out each time the NBM is run.

    All NWS WFOs are required to use NBM output only, nothing else, for their days 3-7 forecast grids, with extremely limited leeway, if any, for exceptions. Day 3-7 NWS model output will almost always match whichever the latest run of the NBM that they’re using is. And use of “only NBM” inside of day 3 is strongly encouraged, is policy in some cases, and will probably be policy in all cases before long. Long story short, the NBM is the NWS forecast.

    Reply

    1. Wow, thanks WxW, did not realize that. I have seen the NWS reference it in their forecast discussions but had no idea it was pretty much a requirement to use.

      Reply

  81. JPDave – thank you for all you are doing to stay on top of this storm as maddening as it might be for you. Your updates are very helpful!

    Reply

  84. I’m with WxWatcher and I also wrote about this ….

    Miss, graze, hit, I really think that applies ONLY to the precip shield.

    I’m not sure there’s a true miss option in easternmost Mass from some wind impact and some 11am tide impact Sunday morning.

    The ocean may have the biggest waves for the 11:30pm tide Sunday night, but thankfully that’s just under 10 ft on the level, as opposed to the significant 11 footer due Sunday morning.

    Reply

  85. Boston Snowfall total 1986-87 =42.5”

    I don’t have any real memory of the snow chances that particular winter but based on what TK has been posting, Boston’s total could have been significantly higher.

    Reply

    1. I have lights that are scheduled to come on and off. I move on time regularly now. Funny how age changes me. I don’t wasn’t a ton more snow yet for the second time in my life. And I have always loved dark evenings in winter but now like being able to drive.

      Reply

      1. Same. Reached that age where driving in daylight is preferred.

        I’ll drive in the dark, but not for long distances anymore.

        Reply

  87. 18z GFS is further east and a complete miss.

    Just a breezy Sunday with some high cloudiness. Zero precip even on Nantucket. Stick a fork in it?

    Reply

    1. No fork sticking based on single operational runs. And since some of the energy that goes into making this system is north central Canada right now, I’d say we have a way to go before things start to become more certain. 🙂

      Reply

      2. But wouldn’t you agree that a full blown direct hit is now becoming highly unlikely with time, if not pretty much off the table for all practical purposes?

        A precious few inches most locations east of Worcester and several to many inches Plymouth to Cape with strong winds?

        Reply

  90. Ok, since there is a fork on the table for discussion….

    I may consider using said fork IF the 18Z Euro goes East again!
    I wish the model would make up its mind. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Reply

    1. As previously stated, operational model runs tell you very little at this stage.

      It will not be time to stick any forks anywhere after the 18z ECMWF.

      Reply

    2. What caught my eye on the loop was the elongated isobars of low pressure to the west.

      I have no idea if that would happen but it’s noticeable.

      Reply

      1. My heart is still thumping!!! My hands are shaking!!!!

        Pete B. will be wearing a FROWN tonight.

        Now, what will the other models say at 0Z. This is so different than the other 18Z runs.

        Can this even happen? If I read the qpf map correctly, Boston makes it to the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range. Since it is on the edge, call it 1.5 melted for Boston. Possible total:

        10:1 = 15 inches
        12:1 = 18 inches
        15:1 = 30 inches

        Not sure what the ratio would be, but clearly higher than 10.

        conservatively, let’s say 12:1

        That’s another HUGE snowstorm!!!!!

        Where will we put it?

        Reply

    4. I used my fork for dinner and then washed it afterwards, so I guess I wasn’t quite ready. I guess TK talked me out of it. 🙂

      Reply

  96. Yeah, that elongation of the low, westward, when the storm is nearing put latitude, I’m suspicious of.

    You can almost see this in the expected precip. You have theat heavy stuff with the low tracking ENE and then with the developing elongation, a secondary max off our coastline.

    I’m going with the idea that the 18z GFS and Euro op runs are outliers on each end of the envelope and am not taking them too seriously.

    Reply

    1. Hard for me to picture the Euro as an outlier, but it certainly could be. Most curious to see the 0z runs and see what thy looks like. Time to start having a bit of model consistency.

      Reply

      1. It’s definitely time for increased consistency.

        I just don’t get the western elongation of the low in this pattern. What would be causing it to become elongated east of us? I don’t se le anything in the upper pattern west of us to do that.

        Reply

    2. The avg btwn these extremes would probably come out to the graze shown by most everything else and the ensembles 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Reply

    1. I’m with you !

      Now, if we get 2 or 3 suites of 00z and 12z runs in a row with ensemble support that shows a western elongation of the low, I’ll buy it and panic.

      Reply

  98. I’ve watched the first link loop multiple times.

    Follow that 972 mb isobar, that run elongates it west practically to the benchmark.

    I don’t think that’s likely. 🙂

    Reply

    1. Not so sure, ensemble mean moved NW along with the operational. Could it be the start of a trend? Or just a blip? Not gonna get too excited about it until we see some other models follow suit.

      Reply

  102. Non weather ….

    Thank goodness there’s an extra week to the Super Bowl as Drake Maye is questionable on the injury report.

    I know he’s going to play, but that extra week can only help.

    Reply

      1. I’m skeptical myself but I’m not sure I’d say no way 🙂

        I just can’t say with 100% confidence that scenario wouldn’t happen. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Reply

    3. The ensembles, some of them, must also have the elongation westward of the low because it also has the precip signature.

      The main heaviest precip is headed ENE out over the open ocean and then there’s this secondary max found off our coastline which would be on the western side of the elongated low, which then also throws precip further westward into New England.

      Interesting to see if caught on to this tonight or if its out to lunch.

      Reply

  105. HOF voting in baseball and football really stinks. I won’t go into details. This is a weather blog after all. But not voting in BB is insanity. I don’t even like BB. But he is a 1st ballot HOFer.

    Reply

    1. I can’t believe I’m going to say this, I thought Mike Felger on his radio show made a half decent argument for at least a possible case to be made about spygate and deflategate.

      He seemed to know the full story of spygate and he was detailing belichecks arrogance.

      Then Tony Mazz further made a good point that really the Patriots paid most of the penalty for spygate in fines and lost draft picks. His take was, if Belicheck has served a suspension, those who didn’t vote for him might have felt he really served a consequence but because he didn’t, this could be a way to give him a consequence, going in on the 2nd vote, compared to the 1st.

      They somewhat made me think of it in a bit of a different light.

      Though all the rival players supporting Belicheck lets me know they don’t hold spygate over him because they know all the teams do that and it’s just the Pats got caught.

      Reply

      1. I’ll add that his ego darn near destroyed a young player. To me, above else, that’s something that you just don’t come back from

        Reply

        1. Yup, Jones.

          To watch what he did under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco when Brock Purdy was hurt was eye opening.

          Went back to being a lot more than what he was under Belicheck’s tutelage and decision making, like making Matt Patricia offensive coordinator.

          Reply

  106. its disgusting that BB is not going into the Hall of Fame as a first Ballot. Basically means no coach from now on if they do not have more Rings than BB has, they can not be a first ballot hall of fame and will have to wait for another year longer than what he gets

    Reply

          1. He’s here Hadi this one I just don’t like , I’m on your train Hadi , but not this one . I’ll eat crow if I’m wrong .

            Reply

  107. Listen to what Ted Johnson said this afternoon on WEEI. I had similar feelings as somewhere. Ted played for him and knows him well.

    I now have zero problems with him being left off the first ballot. Many players including Anthony Munoz, Reggie White etc….

    Reply

  108. I wish we could see the 500 mb pattern on the 18z euro around the time it elongates the sfc low further west, almost to the benchmark, when the system nears our latitude.

    I’d love to see or try to understand what it’s doing aloft to cause that to happen.

    Reply

    1. Ok looking at it on tropical tidbits.

      If there are changes on the 500 mb flow, they are subtle and hard to see a major difference.

      That’s another thing that gives pause on the 18z euro.

      If the sfc low is going to elongate a good 100-150 miles further west than the 12z run, then in theory, I’d expect to see something jump out as a difference at 500 mb and I don’t see much difference. So, 500 mb is pretty much the same and at the sfc, such a marked change???? That’s a red flag to me, doesn’t make sense.

      Last week, we had a marked sfc change from OTS/graze to full hit, but there were noticeable changes at 500 mb to make that make sense.

      Reply

  111. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2026012812&fh=48&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Everyone can see the disturbance that becomes the storm

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2026012812&fh=30&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Back it up 18 hrs ….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2026012812&fh=12&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    And now to current location

    https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=can&band=10&length=24

    So there it is, right on the western part of central Hudson Bay. Bit of curvature to the western side of the trof with the disturbance in it.

    Reply

  112. SSK I noticed you said “no way”.

    I am going to have to say that ANY scientist would never say that about this threat at this stage. Never.

    You will benefit from reading my discussions and updating commentary. Take the time and learn more about the correct process of prognostication and understanding what a meteorologist does. It will help a lot. 🙂

    Reply

    1. I’m sorry Tk I’m holding this one steady no disrespect at all . Boston will not receive 12-16 inches . No disrespect Tk & not anything else on it at all let’s wait till Sunday .,

      Reply

      1. In that case, I would like you to provide me the science behind your decision to “hold it steady” … whatever that’s supposed to mean.

        You don’t get to punt until Sunday on this one. You went here.

        Also, who said that Boston was going to receive 12-16 inches?

        I don’t put numbers on these things until seventy two hours before onset.

        I’ve noticed a distinctive change in your attitude. What’s up?

        I will wait for your reply right here.

        Reply

        1. Listen I was referring to marks post on 18Z Euro at 7:26 . You did not say any numbers your jumping to conclusions. I was referring to what the Euro was showing ( not what mark was showing the Euro ) no change in attitude but you & I both know 12-16 in Boston ain’t happening . This conversation is respectfully over

          Reply

          1. You realize that indicating what you’re replying to is very helpful to those reading. Go back and reread your own comments.

            Also, you don’t tell me when a conversation is over here.

            Additionally, don’t ever tell me “listen” in that way.

            There was no respect in your attitude toward me and others here. I’ll deal with ending the conversation, not you.

            Reply

  114. I think the 00z icon may be symbolic of heading towards better agreement.

    Its previous 12z run was on the far eastern envelope, well out to sea. It’s corrected to that graze with cape cod snow.

    So perhaps we’re about to see the models most on the western envelope come a bit east and those, like the 12z Icon from earlier today that are eastern envelope solutions come west, like it’s 00z run.

    For an overall agreement at a graze with some cape cod snow and a windy/breezy eastern mass coastline ???

    Reply

    1. Looking at the 0z ICON vs 18z it is actually a touch further SE with the extent of the snow shield. Still a Cape Cod special and not really much change. Interested to see the ensembles though.

      Reply

  118. 0z GFS is a mess. It’s doing that double barreled low / fujiwara type thing over the ocean as it undergoes bombogenesis. Obliterates the Outer Banks and eventually gets the Cape and Islands pretty good.

    Reply

  121. 0z Canadian is also off shore and aside from scraping the Cape is largely a miss.

    So far pretty much no other model support for the 18z Euro solution.

    Shocker!

    Reply

    1. There is a parallel version of the Canadian that runs and this version has been fairly consistent with a moderate snowfall in the Boston area and a major snowfall from the South Shore to Cape Cod, including the most recent run.

      Reply

      1. That’s not unusual.
        First call snow maps come out 72 hours ahead.
        48 hours is plenty of time.

        We already know this will be a wind event for Cape Cod and parts of SE MA. Just have to refine the snow area / amounts. (See today’s discussion.)

        Reply

Leave a Reply to Alisonarod Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *