Thursday January 29 2026 Forecast (7:36AM)

194 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

The big chill remains with us as we wrap up January over the next few days. The coldest of the final 3 days of the month will be Friday, and along with a gusty wind, it will feel even colder. Today we see a band of ocean-effect snow showers that can bring some minor accumulation to Outer Cape Cod while the rest of us can see a passing snow shower with a reinforcing arctic boundary passing by late in the day or early this evening. Dry conditions will persist Friday and Saturday, though like last Saturday, this one will also feature an increase in high cloudiness ahead of a storm system developing to our south. As far as the storm and its threat to us, the evolution and track of this one will be different from the previous one. Low pressure deepens and matures fairly rapidly in the ocean south of New England after giving significant snow to parts of the Southeast and southern Mid Atlantic. While it looks like this storm system’s low center is going to pass well southeast of our region, its large circulation is certainly going to have some impact in terms of wind and some snowfall. The strongest winds will most definitely occur over Cape Cod. The snowfall is still something I am in the process of figuring out and fine-tuning, and that will take a couple more days. As it stands now, the best chance of a significant snowfall on Sunday will be over southeastern MA including Cape Cod and the Islands, with chances dropping off fairly significant as you head northwest across the region. Behind this system comes dry weather for Monday, and this time the air mass will not be quite as cold as what we are enduring this week.

TODAY: Clouds and occasional snow showers Outer Cape Cod with up to 1 or 2 inches of accumulation. Sunny to partly cloudy elsewhere with a chance of snow showers west to east by late in the afternoon. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows -1 to +6. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below zero.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +2, colder pockets in valleys. Wind NW to N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 7-14. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely coast / southeastern areas. Chance of snow elsewhere. Highs 18-25. Wind N to NE 15-25 MPH except 25-35 MPH with higher gusts southeastern MA, especially Cape Cod / Islands.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Snow ends, sky clears. Lows 10-17. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Temperatures remain below normal but not quite to the current level of cold. Watching for a winter weather threat about February 5 to early February 6, preceded by and followed by fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Temperatures below normal but with more variation and a couple chances of snow showers as cold air is reinforced, but overall a quieter pattern in terms of storm threats.

194 thoughts on “Thursday January 29 2026 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  3. From the start on this one my leaning is “outside” but not necessarily a “miss”. Same feeling on this today.

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      1. Not yet. Mostly on the back that gets no sun. I was able to get some roof pucks that Dr. S. suggested and am about to put some out this morning. Hoping that does the trick to create some channels.

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        2. Good luck. I missed the roof puck conversation but they worked for us in Framingham. I remember those issues and know wish you the very best outcome

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          1. No water inside, just trying to make sure it has a way to get to the bottom. I didn’t miss this the last several years.

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  5. Good morning and thank you
    TK.

    11 after low of 9

    Ocean: 40

    Re: storm
    6Z euro still delivers about 4-6 inches for Boton and more S&E, less N&W. Euro and as TK mentioned, the Canadian para are the ONLY models delivering snow. ALL OTHERS are a complete miss or just barely clip Cape and islands.

    I know this storm is different, but it reminds me of a storm wY back around 1982 or so. AS OF FRiday 11PM news, a Saturday Ocean storm was predicted to be a complete miss. Clouds rolled in overnight and it Sat afternoon it was snowing and it snowed all night. Boston received a foot. BTW, this was early Dec. I want to say the 6th, but 100% sure. Just saying with these Ocean storms there isn’t much data coming in from over the ocean. Models are mostly extrapolating. Fwiw, Pete B. Was mentioning g the lack of model data out there. His forecast last night was similar to TKs, but he wasn’t a bit worried about what that storm would do.

    WORDLE: 4
    Thought I had it in 3.

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  6. Thanks TK! Wondering when a winter storm watch will be issued for us down here on the South Coast. Will they wait until tomorrow night?

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  9. Nice wordling, Tom and JPD.

    4 for me also. Even with the first four letters in the correct place, it took me a few

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  16. North – glad my comment came in handy. This blog is a great community helping each other. Always thankful for TK having put it together.

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    1. I think with a large storm of this magnitude much still needs to be ironed out an it wouldn’t take much at all with such a tight gradient for it to either bury us or miss the area altogether. The models can do their best in prognosticating what they think might happen, but there is something about this coastal storm in particular that tells me it’s much more complicated than that. There may be details that the models do not pick up on.

      Reply

    2. Compare the 6z NAM at 84 hrs to the 12z NAM at 78 hrs and you’ll see a tick NW change.

      I do feel like we have much more consistent overnight and so far this morning.

      Overall converging to a handful to several inches on Cape and Nantucket, 1-3 or 2-4 on the South Shore and maybe snow in the air up to Boston. Today, anyway. Not that it will look this way Saturday.

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  20. Thanks TK.

    Can’t remember this length of a really cold spell like this. Normally after these big storms we at least get a day or two above freezing, not in this pattern.

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  22. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2026012900&fh=12&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2026012900&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850th&rh=2026012900&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Whether we get hit or not ….

    The part that fascinates me most about this event, is ….

    you could argue that right now, there’s a small piece of the polar vortex sitting SW of Hudson Bay (link 1)

    and as the disturbance sinks way south, its almost like a small piece of that (polar vortex) is being sent all the way south to the south coast (link 2)

    and you can clearly see this at 850 mb, where the 850 mb temps will be colder in the southeast US compared to southeast Canada. This can happen, but not to this EXTREME (link 3)

    Look at those purple colored 850 mb temps in the southeast !!

    No wonder its going to be in the teens in the FL Panhandle, 20s in Mickey Mouse land and likely under 32F in Miami.

    This is extreme !

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  23. Reading back through the blog entries and comments from Jan 26-27 of 2015, that storm and the one we just had were so similar in the snow amounts, ratios, and distribution of the highest totals (although retrac got over 30″ from that one), even down to the disparity of measurements from JPDave to Hadi which is only a couple miles. Kinda eerie actually and with the threat of another storm a week later.

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      1. They probably did great snow removal trucking out . Down my way just a mess with the massive piles everywhere.

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          1. It’s tough with those piles pulling out into the streets but for most towns & cities it will be all week cleaning up . Looking like less up here translates into good snow removal operations , it’s not easy

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  29. AT like 78 hours the RRFSA was about 200 miles farther West than the 6Z run, but it moved more East rather than North
    and didn’t quite get up here. Weird.

    I still think there is room for this all to change.

    GFS is next to try its hand at it.

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      1. Exactly and why we can’t all it a miss just yet. It may well be a miss, but too much can happen between now and then.
        As you say. very complex.

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  32. Jpdave – I think there will be snow maps because I think it’s a lock that the cape/islands get *something* even if boston gets nothing.

    ssk – yeah, the snow removal process in these south shore towns where we pay heaps of money just for the pleasure of existing is awful. Oddly they did a better job of it in 2015 here in Hingham and that was far worse. Being generous: I think when you have a long stretch of years without a major pileup of snow – the people in charge of organizing and knowing what needs to be done and how to best tackle it – change hands too many times and the knowledge is lost.

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      1. I saw that before I wrote the comment – I remember the good ol’ days of calling the GFS “good for sh**”

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    1. I keep wishing for a big ol’ whiff and I think it’s working. Didn’t work last storm but I was ok with that. Based on how this was originally depicted I am beyond pleased with the trend.

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      1. It may very well be, but looking at all of the 500,300 and 200 mb charts, I’d be cautious about a miss being a lock.

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  36. Beautiful on these 12z runs.

    Our youngest daughter, with the AFS program is on her way to Michigan.

    They are scheduled to come back Sunday. I would like her to return then.

    Assuming these new 12z runs verify, I loudly say GBAGL to this system !!

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      1. LOL at myself because I don’t know what it actually stands for, but its the exchange group.

        Those students from Michigan will be coming to stay in Marshfield for a few days in March. They each visit each other’s high schools, they tour the town and its sites and they have a lot of group get togethers.

        The exchange last year was with a town in northern Spain. Kindest exchange student we have ever hosted. And my daughter went to Spain for the April vacation with other Marshfield students. They still keep in touch by text 🙂

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          1. Its been really cool !

            Our oldest did it for one year, but our youngest the last 3 years. She’s President this year of the club. 🙂

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      3. “AFS” in the U.S. Air Force context primarily refers to Air Force Services (supporting readiness, food, lodging, and recreation), Air Force Security Forces (base protection and law enforcement), or an Air Force Station (a specific, often remote, installation). These organizations are vital for providing worldwide support, specialized security training, and infrastructure for Airmen, Guardians, and families

        Reply

  37. Thanks, TK!

    We bottomed out at (negative) 4.5 this morning!
    It was the coldest morning in nearly three years.

    It -10 on the mornings of February 4 and 5, 2023.

    25 now.

    Never knew about roof pucks. I am going to look into buying some.
    Thanks for the info!

    Reply

    1. That’s all I needed to see. Now there isn’t much if any guidance at all that suggests a decent hit for Boston. Still needs to be watched.

      Reply

  40. 12z Euro, CMC, Euro AI, and GFS AI signaling another coastal storm threat late next week into next weekend while 12z GFS op has more of a clipper system (or two). Wouldn’t be a monster but this 2/5-2/8 period appears to be our next watch period for accumulating snow.

    Reply

    1. I sense a pattern of weekend snows or at least “potential” snows. Don’t make any weekend plans other than skiing for the rest of this winter anyway.

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  42. First call for Sunday…

    6+ Cape Cod and Islands

    3+ Rest of southeastern MA and southeastern RI

    1+ I-95 belt

    <1 west of the I-95 belt

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    1. At least the Patriots will be able to have their rally on Sunday and leave for the SB in Santa Clara with no weather worries.

      GO PATRIOTS!!!!!!! 🙂

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    3. I will take this!

      My son had planned to drive from Morristown, NJ to Lunenburg on Sunday. It looks like he should be fine, right? If need be, he can take a more inland route, like via Albany.

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      1. I think it’ll be ok, but having the further inland option is good backup plan, just in case Ma Nature pulls any fast ones.

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      1. Indeed. I don’t think we will see that happen, but it’s not off the table. A shift east is still on the table as well at 3 days out, but this map is one I had not seen and it’s one I also very much agree with.

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    1. You may very well end up with that. But at least you have a few days of cold/dry weather which aids in settling and sublimation.

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    3. Man, it’s still too close for comfort. I certainly wouldn’t be arrogant in strongly thinking one way or the other especially since I’m not an expert in meteorology. I can follow patterns though and I do exercise common sense. And while it appears to be a non-event from I95 north and west, experience gives me pause until this storm actually forms off the Carolina coast and safely moves out to sea. It appears more likely than not that will occur but how can anyone say with certainty what the actual outcome might be?

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      1. Definitely no arrogance from me. It’s not my style. My style is meteorology. The door is open, still, to anything from a completely offshore solution, to a significant snowstorm in southeastern areas. That’s from meteorology, not models, not “gut feeling”, and mostly definitely not just to disagree with someone else because it makes me feel important or something. 😉

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        1. Haha, I know what you’re getting at and I definitely wasn’t directing my comment toward you. I hope you know that.

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    1. That’s not how it works. 😉
      You’re letting individual model runs, many of them outside optimal range, impact your thoughts. 🙂

      HINT: Listen to a meteorologist. 😉

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      1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        My only caveat to this whole thing is the 500 and 300 mb flows became S to N and the NW and then closed off and the 200mb flow is not S to N, but it is deep enough to get the system up here, yet models move it ENE or even E or ESE as the RRFSA does. I am still having trouble understanding how that can be, thus my post yesterday about the coriolis effect.

        When I first looked at the maps, I thought for certain it was coming up, in fact I was worried about a flip to rain, yet all the models took it out to the East.

        Something smells fishy to me.

        That being said, I am still Not convinced Boston even sees a flake. We have plans for Sunday, weather permitting. Let’s see what happens.

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  53. I am getting that feeling I often get as a sports fan. Looked like we were going to pull out a win only to give it away in the end. But there is still time left so hoping for a comeback.

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      1. Any place between Nantucket and Worcester have the potential to overachieve or underachieve.

        The jury is out.

        My first guess is based on what I feel is most likely to take place as of my analysis this afternoon.

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  56. Not to look too far ahead, but the signal for ~2/5 is still there and rather interesting at this point. But then again, that’s not too far ahead, because I go out 15 days, and 2/5 is exactly one week away. 😉

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  57. More than 90,000 customers are still without power in Nashville and surrounding areas after the ice storm. Most schools have been closed this week, including in-person classes suspended at Vanderbilt. Many churches and community centers have opened warming centers or overnight shelters. Nearly a dozen people in Middle Tennessee have died as a result of the cold and storm. Temperatures are not forecasted to get above freezing until Monday.

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    1. It was very nasty down there. Sad to hear about the casualties. It will take that region a while to recover.

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  59. Current NBM snowfall forecast delivers 6+ inches to Metro Boston and all points south through Cape Cod (with a couple areas over 1 foot). Amounts drop off to the northwest from there on this depiction.

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        2. True! I was concerned about where to put another two feet of snow also! But as a snow lover, I’m sure I could have figured out where to put another 6-12 inches. Affer all, I’m a hearty New Englander 🙂

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  61. I think Mike Wankum has had a really good handle on this storm laying out all the different scenarios very responsibly, I sure will miss him when he decides to retire .

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    2. So does Eric Fisher.
      So does Dominic Brown.
      So does J.R.
      So do I.
      Etc.

      All of us pros do.

      Credit where it’s due. 😉

      #MeteorologyNotModelology

      #RealScienceNotGutFeeling

      Reply

  62. UMMM, THE 6z Nam took a left turn. Most interesting and getting in range as well. The 0z euro veered right some more.

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