Friday January 30 2026 Forecast (7:12AM)

170 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Our cold pattern rolls on, and the the final 2 mornings of the first month of 2026 present an opportunity for a weather lesson – a comparison between today’s low temperatures and tomorrow’s low temperatures, noting the difference even though we’re in the same air mass. Why is that going to happen? The answer is simple. Wind today. Lack of wind tomorrow. This morning’s low temperatures are in the single digits to lower teens across the entire WHW forecast area, rather uniform due to a busy northwesterly wind mixing the air adequately enough so that we don’t see that difference between coast and inland, lower and higher elevation. Tomorrow morning, the air will be calm, so we will see those differences, when even though the air mass has not changed, there can be large differences in low temperature between an urban area or a town right at the water’s edge, and an inland valley location. Prepare for a pop quiz at some point! 😉 … During this time we’ll see dry weather, with lots of sun both today and Saturday, but some filtering of that sun Saturday due to increasing high clouds ahead of our next storm threat. This threat exists late Saturday night and Sunday, but looks rather different than our previous big hit, as we will be side-swiped by a large ocean storm. It does appear that it will pass close enough to bring some accumulating snow to southeastern MA and as far west as the I-95 belt as well, with a drop off to not much / nothing west of there. There are still possibilities of a slight track variation in that storm enough to shift it all further east and offshore, and a lesser but not zero chance of a westward shift expanding the snow area and potential amounts, though the latter is less likely than the former. Beyond that, we return to fair weather and not quite as cold weather for the beginning of next week.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +2, colder pockets in valleys. Wind NW to N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 7-14. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely coast / southeastern areas. Chance of snow elsewhere. Potential snow accumulation of 4+ inches Cape Cod / Islands, 2+ inches MA South Shore to southeastern RI, 1+ inch I-95 belt, and less than 1 inch west of the I-95 belt. Highs 18-25. Wind N to NE 15-25 MPH except 25-35 MPH with higher gusts southeastern MA, especially Cape Cod / Islands.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Snow ends, sky clears. Lows 10-17. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Watching for a winter weather threat around February 5 to early February 6, and another minor threat over the February 7-8 weekend. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Temperatures mostly below normal but with more variation and a couple chances of snow showers as cold air is reinforced, but overall a quieter pattern in terms of storm threats.

170 thoughts on “Friday January 30 2026 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    The 6Z NAM took a left turn

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013006&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026013006&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    0Z Euro veered yet more to the right only clipping the cape.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026013000&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Bring on the 12Z suite and let’s see what it has to offer.

    Reply

          1. My friend is about 2.5 hours NW of there. My Merrill lunch guy and his coworker are in Charleston. He lives on either James or John’s island. I know when my in-laws lived in Snee Farm east of Charleston that they had snow a few times

            Reply

  5. 6z euro ticked a tad more east
    Next to nothing Boston area, to decent snow outer cape.

    In the models era, I can’t remember a situation like this or at least since I have been watching the models.

    I suppose the NAM is the outlier leader in the clubhouse. RRFSA certainly didn’t join the NAM.

    Most curious to see 12z suite. My guess is NAM returns to the East . Euro trends even more East and all others a total miss,

    One other thing, fwiw, the ICON has been drifting N & W.
    So, no clue on what that does.

    No matter what, should be interesting.

    Reply

    1. If memory serves correct, the ICON had a few way OTS solutions recently and if so, then its drift N and W is it coming to match the most likely outcome.

      Euro, because its been furthest west, needs the slight adjustment east.

      Getting good agreement now 🙂

      Reply

  7. Sun max altitude in Boston hits 30 degrees above the southern horizon today.

    As cold as its been, I can see around some brown tree trunks and green shrubbery, where the dark colors can absorb a bit of the sun’s warmth, some melting. And of course, the dirty snow on the side of the street facing into the sun.

    Reply

  10. Here is something interesting. See if you can see it.

    Here is the 12Z HRRR at hour 44

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013012&fh=44&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Now at hour 48

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013012&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Notice anything? Perhaps it’s these aging eyes, but I see that
    the sytem has moved slightly SOUTH of DUE EAST!!!!!

    What on earth is going on here?

    hour 44 500MB

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=500wh&rh=2026013012&fh=44&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    hour 48 500

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=500wh&rh=2026013012&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    It is like the surface low is stuck under the closed 500 mb and when the 500 mb moved East, the surface low went along for the ride.

    This bodes well for a complete miss. Of course this in one model’s interpretation and simulation of the atmosphere.

    Reply

  12. Congratulations on the Wordle 3s JPD and Vicki!

    I got it in 6. I’m holding onto the railing at the rear of the caboose. I think I can still see Tom – hand me that rope. 🙂

    Reply

  15. When looking at upper level winds, they may look like they should be directing the storm further north.

    But that’s deceptive because the storm is within a trof that is translating due east with a time. So, it’s a 2 vector movement, if you will and the eastward movement of the entire trof, in this case, vastly supersedes the flow around the system.

    Reply

    1. Yes, that is a good description of what we are seeing.
      It cause the system to track more East than North or ENE,
      keeping it off shore.

      Nicely said Tom.

      Reply

        1. I agree. I just wanted to know yes or no one way or the other. This yes, maybe, maybe not, maybe yes, now wait not, no wait yea, or a side swipe, no, a miss, no a hit, wait a minute a miss.

          I don’t see how we get a flake up here. Not even sure the cape get’s a flake. It just seems to want to track more EAST.

          Reply

          1. Still way to early but February is here & who knows that may or may not be the big event of the winter snow wise , certainly been a colder winter

            Reply

      1. I almost gave up twice, but I was determined to stick to it.

        I have found that some does my mind is more into it and other days not so much. It can get very frustrating at times!!!

        Reply

  19. I do feel like there’s a short window, maybe in the first third to first half of the event, for a little ocean effect snow in southeast and interior southeast Mass, separate from the precip shield.

    I see hints of it here and there.

    Certainly some NE flow at 925 mb with high RH’s and briefly, the wind can go NNE at the coast while its N or NNW inland. Some convergence.

    Talking an inch, maybe 2 in that zone, again, separate from the system’s synoptic snow.

    By mid and late system, that would shut off with winds at 925mb coming around to N, then NW and certainly all sfc winds coming around to N and NW.

    Reply

  21. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.fcst.png

    NAO forecast to become negative in about 5-6 days again, after a brief climb to neutral.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2026013012&fh=117&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Can see that modest blocking with a 500 mb over eastern Greenland, with a 500mb area of low underneath it in the North Atlantic

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2026013012&fh=123&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Keeps us in a dry, cold NNW flow at 500 mb

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2026013012&fh=123&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026013012&fh=123&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Which is why the 12z’s are more suppressed today for the system around 2/4 into 2/5

    Reply

    3. Tom
      January 30, 2026 at 11:16 AM

      If this verifies, its colder than avg and largely dry. Wouldn’t get the southern stream moisture but depending on the northern stream set-up, maybe can get a clipper to track just south of us, while intensifying. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Reply

      1. Exactly what the GFS and Euro are showing.

        However I should note that the 12z ICON and CMC take that Sat 2/7 clipper system much further north and do not have the coastal redevelopment the GFS and Euro do.

        Regarding the southern stream system threat that precedes that on Thursday 2/5, all models currently show that one passing south of us out to sea, also as you were describing!

        Regardless, both threats need to be watched. Still plenty of time to track.

        Reply

        1. Actually the 12z CMC also shows clipper redevelopment next weekend, it is just too little too late (happens over the Gulf of Maine).

          Reply

  28. Are we ready to write off the Sunday threat? If it were up to me, I’d say KISS IT GOOD-BYE. It was a nice threat, but like many, it was NOT TO BE.
    ONTO CLEVELAND!!!!

    Reply

      1. I’ve done that a few times already.

        I had momentary hope when I saw the 6Z NAM, but that got dashed when I saw the 6Z euro and further dashed with the 12Z NAM. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Reply

      1. My forecast is the same.

        I guess based on “the models” y’all think the snow is OTL and the NWS & TK are OTL.

        😉

        Reply

        1. If I lived on the Cape I would not be convinced of a complete miss, but in Dave and my backyards, its cold and dry, kiss er goodbye!

          Reply

  32. Nice loop here courtesy of Tomer Burg showing how well the Euro AI did with this system, and its gradual shift SE run to run…

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    22h

    This is our first busy winter with AI models available, and I am becoming increasingly impressed

    I find them much less noisy run to run (steadier) and they seem to latch onto things a bit earlier than their counterparts

    https://x.com/ericfisher/status/2016942037287817635?s=20

    Reply

  33. Matthew Cappucci
    @MatthewCappucci
    1h

    Wild. The reliable, hi-res HRRR model now suggests isolated SNOW SQUALLS possible near the Tampa metro on Sunday morning. A few ocean-effect snow showers are likely near Pinellas, Manatee, Hillsborough, Polk, Sarasota, Pasco and/or Hernando Counties, and an isolated brief moderate squall can’t be ruled out.

    This is the result of very cold air — the coldest since 2018 — passing over warmer Gulf waters.

    There’s even a potential for Tampa to see its first mensurable snowfall since 1977 (measureable means 0.1 inches or more). There has only ever been one other documented snowfall — February 13, 1899!

    If you encounter a snow shower, turn on your low beam headlights, drive slowly, plan for brief reductions in visibility and don’t be surprised for up to a dusting on grassy surfaces.

    https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/2017274118668722297?s=20

    Reply

  39. If I’m correct we are in the snowstorm peak period for the next few weeks. If I recall the blizzard of 78 was February 7? Will there be somewhat of a repeat around the February 5-7? I hope not.
    I’m so glad we are dodging a very large bullet on Sunday.

    Reply

    1. That’s just the long-term climate stat. It can vary.

      Example is the 1981-1982 winter when the two largest snowstorms were December 5-6 and April 6.

      Reply

  42. Welcome back! I mean hi! Long week. 😉

    1) WP is doing a little maintenance so you may notice some difficulty posting at times.

    2) Quick review of new guidance. Edge the snow area east by a tiny bit, otherwise no changes to ongoing forecast. Significantly cold weekend with double-digit negative departures. Tomorrow morning may be the coldest of the winter in some locations. Sunday, while not as cold as Saturday, carries a lot more wind regardless of what the offshore system delivers for precipitation, so that day will especially have a bite to it.

    Stay warm!

    Reply

  43. A coastal flood watch has been issued for the MA East Coast including Cape Cod and the Islands for Sunday into early Monday.

    Coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet is possible around high tide times.

    Reply

    1. Another 1-2 inch separate ocean effect signal displaced from the synoptic snows. And in the early first 1/3 to 1/2 of the event.

      Reply

      1. I’ll laugh if marshfield to Pembroke gets 2-4 or 3-5” ocean enhanced precip Sunday morning.

        There is some moist flow briefly at 925 mb overrunning a brief lasting coastal boundary where it’s 25F in Marshfield and 10F on the west side of it.

        Reply

        2. Ocean enhancement in this set-up can become more impressive than expected. We need to watch for that.

          Reply

  45. HRRR model has shown a notable westward shift to the western edge of the snow on its 18z run in comparison to its 12z run. It’s also starting to pick up more on the ocean effect banding which would be SEPARATE from the synoptic snow shield.

    That is not to be ignored right now.

    The snow shield could literally miss the entire area (even Cape Cod) and that would not take away the ocean effect potential.

    Reply

  46. Thanks TK! What a storm this is to watch develop. I was hoping for an epic experience and can live without that I guess for now. However I will be bummed if we don’t get at least 4 inches on the South Coast. Seems like there is still a chance.

    Reply

    1. To be honest, as far as our region goes, a direct walloping would not be good, not even because of “nowhere to put it” regarding snowfall, but the coastal flooding, which may still be moderate even with the storm being as far offshore as it’s going to be.

      Reply

      1. This is the type of set-up that can produce quite a few inches of snow without being hit directly by the storm. Not saying it will pan out exactly this way, but in the 36 years of doing this professionally plus the nearly 2 decades of watching it closely before that, I’ve seen this set-up enough to know not to brush it off (pun only kind of intended). 😉

        Reply

  48. I was just looking with a little more attention at the medium range.

    I’ve had February 5-6 flagged as a watch period for about 2 weeks, and it still is. But over the last few days a signal for around February 7 has also been emerging.

    When I have seen this in the past, it’s been my experience that it can either be a false signal and the original signal is the right now, but in several cases the second signal becomes the dominant one, and in some cases the signals appear to merge into a compromised signal.

    Basically, what I said just now is anything can happen, and yes, that is true. The nature of trying to forecast the future is that this could go either of those 3 ways, or just ending up being a benign system with little impact.

    I’ll keep an eye on the trend here with these signals over the next couple days and try to fine-tune within reason before this period of time becomes part of “DAYS 1-5”, which happens at the end of the weekend. 🙂

    Reply

    1. Last night’s Euro was very close to both threats materializing in succession. Is that asking too much? Probably. But I’d be happy if we could just get one moderate- significant event to pan out.

      Nice regardless that we have some potential to track for the third straight week.

      Reply

  51. Temp dropped nearly a degree in the last seven minutes. It’s 10.4.
    It “hit” 16 this afternoon.

    Reply

      2. Me, too, SSK. I have three furnace zones on, plus the gas fireplace. I never do that.

        Today was the coldest maximum since January 22, 2019 when the high was 7.

        If you don’t mind me asking, how’s your wife’s recovery? I hope she’s well on her way to getting better and getting stronger every day!

        Reply

        1. You can ask me anytime . She’s doing better & getting stronger everyday. We had the follow-up appointment in Boston yesterday with the surgeon & he’s happy & will see us again in two weeks ( they are watching her closely ) nursing comes here twice a week as PT . I’ll be home with her again this coming week & will see how it goes after that . It was a major surgery with an unexpected another one so it’s going to take time , thank you for asking .

          Reply

    1. Canadian Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System. It is one of the seasonal long range forecast models that projects temperature and precip anomalies for several months out.

      Reply

    2. I am so sick hearing about Drake all week , he’s fine & you would think the Boston Media would let it go as it’s a distraction.

      Reply

      1. I’m not particularly worried either. Just thought that I would post it, is all.

        But if you’re sick of it now, the Boston media is certainly going to cover it up until SB Sunday next week then the national media will get in on it as well. Get used to it.

        And this is assuming he makes a full recovery soon.

        Reply

      1. Nah, with compaction and sublimation it is probably 12-15″ right now. Need a refresh.

        We got to a solid compacted snow depth of 40″ by early Feb. 2011 and oh do I long to experience that again. Feb 2015 was nice too but we were on the outer periphery of most of those big Eastern MA storms.

        Reply

      2. We need 2 or 3 larger storms to get those kinds of snowpacks. We’ve only had one large one. And at most in this area there was only about 5 inches on the snow the ground.

        After the major snowfall this past week, we’ve already experienced a lot of settling and some sublimation.

        Reply

  58. I’m ok with below avg temps for weeks to come.

    At least with that, when you get a 45-50F day in March, it feels like a very early Spring day.

    The previous 2 years and a few others, there was hardly a difference btwn mid/late March temps and Jan/Feb temps. It didn’t feel like a new season in March was approaching, just more of the same.

    Reply

  59. Couple of observations:

    1. This is (and will continue to be) one of the coldest sustained periods I have ever experienced in Boston. It’s incredibly beautiful and nice to experience.

    2. Greenland is having an historically mild winter. Most days in recent weeks have been at or above freezing in the capital. Iceland has also had an exceptionally mild winter.

    3. Atlantic storms are relentlessly assaulting all of Western Europe with almost daily deluges of rain and lots of wind. Despite 2 brief cold periods this winter, most of Western Europe will likely turn out to be above normal temperature-wise for the winter as a whole. The coming weeks show little sign of change. And once spring gets near over there it usually springs with no turning back (unlike SNE). It’s their best season by far.

    Reply

    1. 1. The cold in sustained form reminds me of a couple winters in the early 1980s, or Dec 1989.

      2. No surprise. Often when the mid latitudes have an area (or areas) of persistent cold, someone to the north is mild. Product of a -AO.

      3. Reminds me of many times tracking those things when doing shipping forecasts for the newswire I provided information for. It was a tough task, and sometimes it can be relentless for weeks there.

      Reply

  60. Stress has got the better of me this week as I have 20 full plates lol , I apologize it showed on the blog & I will do better , thanks.

    Reply

  61. Ocean is still getting colder. Spring sea breezes will really chill us to the bone later than usual. Maybe until mid June unless we get a lot land breezes.

    Reply

    2. In a loose sense, yes, but in a practical sense no.

      It can never be “too cold to snow”. It’s just that often the coldest of air masses are very dry ones, in which having snow occur is less likely.

      However, given that temps were in the single digits at the onset of last week’s storm, which is something that seldom occurs in southern New England, you saw a very strong case against the old saying.

      It really just depends on the pattern and the particular set-up of the event at the time.

      In this case, it was able to stay extremely cold in most of the region for the event while plentiful moisture was lifted over the cold wedge of air and dumped as snow with pretty hefty amounts.

      It may be years before we see an event like that again, and then again it may happen again before this winter is over. We never really can know.

      Reply

  63. According to Mike Waunkum, Boston will get most of its snow ( C-1”) tomorrow night as opposed to Sunday.

    O.E. ❄️

    Reply

  64. Robert, that is a good point (on cold seabreezes). As I recall, June 1 and 2 in 2015 never made it out of the 40s in Boston. East/northeast wind off a still relatively cold ocean will do that sometimes.

    Reply

  65. Water still 41° at the Block Island buoy.
    Bermuda is 58° air temperature. They are expecting storm force gust on Sunday.

    Reply

  66. Getting way ahead too much probably.

    That Feb 7th clipper that the GFS exploded and it’s on the Euro passing south of us.

    Anyhow, there’s signals of blocking in that time frame.

    Doesn’t mean big snows. Could mean some kind of system that doesn’t pass by quick or doesn’t move away quick.

    Anyhow, will be following 🙂

    Reply

  67. It’s already 0 here.

    I just remembered that the Bruins and Bolts play an outdoor game Sunday evening in Raymond James in Tampa where there could be record low highs and lows for the day!!!

    Reply

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