Saturday January 31 2026 Forecast (7:43AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

You’ll recall yesterday the comparison to yesterday morning’s low temperatures and the expected low for this morning being different due to the difference between a gusty wind and nearly calm conditions. Well, winds are calm in many areas this morning, others seeing a light northwesterly breeze 10 MPH or under. Temperatures have responded accordingly, but there is quite a range also to be noted as the sun comes up. Norwood MA is our area cold spot, having been calm all night, and fallen to a low temp of -12, while at Provincetown MA on the tip of Cape Cod, a northwest breeze of 10 MPH coming across milder ocean water has their temp sitting at +13, along with a few ocean-effect snow flurries in the area. Boston’s Logan airport sits at +8 while most of its suburbs and outskirts sit between 0 and -10 as of sunrise. This is the type of early morning you can throw hot water to “make a cloud”, but if you do that, use caution! Today’s weather will be cold and fairly tranquil to wrap up the month of January, and the sun will start to fade behind increasing high cloudiness later as the much-talked-about storm organizes well to our south. This storm is going to intensify rapidly, i.e., undergo “bombogenesis”, and after bringing a significant snowfall to the Carolinas and Virginia, will spare the Mid Atlantic and most of the Northeast, only grazing far southeastern New England with the edge of its synoptic snow shield Sunday, while the circulation around it does help initiate some ocean-effect snow on the MA South Shore to Cape Cod late tonight into Sunday. This will account for most of the snowfall accumulation we see, with a little synoptic addition most notable on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Once you get to about Boston and all points west, the most you see are a few flakes of snow with much of this region only being under the storm’s cloud canopy but seeing no snowfall at all. A few hundred miles further west and north with this storm track, and we’d be looking at a storm potentially the magnitude of last week’s except with much stronger wind, along with significant coastal flooding. As is, even with the far out to sea track, the circulation around the storm is enough to lead to some minor to borderline moderate coastal flooding near high tide times on Sunday in areas most prone to it. The monster storm goes by and heads for a Nova Scotia walloping Monday as we see dry, windy, and chilly weather for Groundhog Day, and continued fair and chilly weather into the middle of next week. This time it won’t be be quite as cold as we have seen recently, though it will still be running somewhat below normal for the early part of February.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow showers MA South Shore to Cape Cod. Lows 8-15. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely Cape Cod and MA South Shore to southeastern RI with most areas seeing 1-3 inches, but a couple areas of 3-6 inches possible MA South Shore and especially Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Occasional light snow with under 1 inch Boston to Providence. Snow threat ends by late-day. Highs 18-25. Wind N to NE 15-25 MPH except 25-35 MPH with higher gusts southeastern MA, especially Cape Cod / Islands.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 9-16. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Watching the period late February 5 to early February 7 for a snow chance but too soon for details. Fair weather follows. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Some up-and-down temperatures but generally below normal with a couple threats for snow showers from passing disturbances.

47 thoughts on “Saturday January 31 2026 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Come Monday, the groundhog (Punkx Phil/Ms. G) should see his/her shadow. No doubt there will be 6 more weeks of winter and the long term pattern of cold (and snow) will confirm.

    Reply

    1. If that shadow is seen, this is going to be one instance where the “groundhog forecast” is correct. 😉

      Reply

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    7 here after low of 2

    Ocean;: 39

    Wordle: 6. Phew!

    RE: snow
    The OES signal seems to have waned. Perhaps models are missing something. We shall see. Synoptic snow seems to keep pushing more Eastward with time. I have a feeling Boston doesn’t even see a flake. Any OES will be in the usual areas Southeast of Boston. That’s how I see it. Of course nothing has happened yet , so we shall see.

    Although I didn’t want to see any damage or inconvenience from flooding or power loss, I am disappointed we’re mostly missing the snow.

    Oh well, how it goes sometimes.

    Reply

  10. We are starting to push territory of “longest cold stretch since the 1960s” in parts of the eastern US. The details vary.

    Reply

      1. Yup, I saw.

        Are those hi-res modes decent at showing OES?
        I think WxWatcher referenced them before.

        Typical bullseye area for OES.

        Reply

  12. Wordle 3.

    My new first two words continue to help me a lot but even with four letters from them, this was a really hard one.

    Reply

    1. Those maps “could” very well be under doing the Ocean Effect Snows S&E of Boston. Boston may see some fringe snow from OES, but not much that is for sure.

      Reply

          1. That is what I thought. I wonder if the South shore has their own little private snowstorm of 6+ inches. Will be watching for that.

            If Boston gets any it will be in the 4AM to 9 or 10AM tomorrow time frame. I am not counting on it, but possible.

            Reply

  21. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png

    Arctic oscillation. 4-5 standard deviations below avg. wow !! But makes sense, the polar hasn’t been in the arctic, it’s been in southeast Canada. And that massive anomaly isn’t ending anytime soon.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    NAO negative

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.gefs.sprd2.png

    PNA trending to neutral

    I believe TK has said the MJO around phase 6, if not in it. (Don’t hold me to that 🙂 )

    Put it all together ….

    Cold with arctic or polar shots of air continuing. Clipper pattern that may trend to other types of low tracks when the PNA gets more neutral. Potential blocking on clipper systems through midrange.

    Reply

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