Saturday January 31 2026 Forecast (7:43AM)

101 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

You’ll recall yesterday the comparison to yesterday morning’s low temperatures and the expected low for this morning being different due to the difference between a gusty wind and nearly calm conditions. Well, winds are calm in many areas this morning, others seeing a light northwesterly breeze 10 MPH or under. Temperatures have responded accordingly, but there is quite a range also to be noted as the sun comes up. Norwood MA is our area cold spot, having been calm all night, and fallen to a low temp of -12, while at Provincetown MA on the tip of Cape Cod, a northwest breeze of 10 MPH coming across milder ocean water has their temp sitting at +13, along with a few ocean-effect snow flurries in the area. Boston’s Logan airport sits at +8 while most of its suburbs and outskirts sit between 0 and -10 as of sunrise. This is the type of early morning you can throw hot water to “make a cloud”, but if you do that, use caution! Today’s weather will be cold and fairly tranquil to wrap up the month of January, and the sun will start to fade behind increasing high cloudiness later as the much-talked-about storm organizes well to our south. This storm is going to intensify rapidly, i.e., undergo “bombogenesis”, and after bringing a significant snowfall to the Carolinas and Virginia, will spare the Mid Atlantic and most of the Northeast, only grazing far southeastern New England with the edge of its synoptic snow shield Sunday, while the circulation around it does help initiate some ocean-effect snow on the MA South Shore to Cape Cod late tonight into Sunday. This will account for most of the snowfall accumulation we see, with a little synoptic addition most notable on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Once you get to about Boston and all points west, the most you see are a few flakes of snow with much of this region only being under the storm’s cloud canopy but seeing no snowfall at all. A few hundred miles further west and north with this storm track, and we’d be looking at a storm potentially the magnitude of last week’s except with much stronger wind, along with significant coastal flooding. As is, even with the far out to sea track, the circulation around the storm is enough to lead to some minor to borderline moderate coastal flooding near high tide times on Sunday in areas most prone to it. The monster storm goes by and heads for a Nova Scotia walloping Monday as we see dry, windy, and chilly weather for Groundhog Day, and continued fair and chilly weather into the middle of next week. This time it won’t be be quite as cold as we have seen recently, though it will still be running somewhat below normal for the early part of February.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow showers MA South Shore to Cape Cod. Lows 8-15. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely Cape Cod and MA South Shore to southeastern RI with most areas seeing 1-3 inches, but a couple areas of 3-6 inches possible MA South Shore and especially Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Occasional light snow with under 1 inch Boston to Providence. Snow threat ends by late-day. Highs 18-25. Wind N to NE 15-25 MPH except 25-35 MPH with higher gusts southeastern MA, especially Cape Cod / Islands.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 9-16. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Watching the period late February 5 to early February 7 for a snow chance but too soon for details. Fair weather follows. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Some up-and-down temperatures but generally below normal with a couple threats for snow showers from passing disturbances.

101 thoughts on “Saturday January 31 2026 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Come Monday, the groundhog (Punkx Phil/Ms. G) should see his/her shadow. No doubt there will be 6 more weeks of winter and the long term pattern of cold (and snow) will confirm.

    Reply

    1. If that shadow is seen, this is going to be one instance where the “groundhog forecast” is correct. 😉

      Reply

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    7 here after low of 2

    Ocean;: 39

    Wordle: 6. Phew!

    RE: snow
    The OES signal seems to have waned. Perhaps models are missing something. We shall see. Synoptic snow seems to keep pushing more Eastward with time. I have a feeling Boston doesn’t even see a flake. Any OES will be in the usual areas Southeast of Boston. That’s how I see it. Of course nothing has happened yet , so we shall see.

    Although I didn’t want to see any damage or inconvenience from flooding or power loss, I am disappointed we’re mostly missing the snow.

    Oh well, how it goes sometimes.

    Reply

  10. We are starting to push territory of “longest cold stretch since the 1960s” in parts of the eastern US. The details vary.

    Reply

      1. Yup, I saw.

        Are those hi-res modes decent at showing OES?
        I think WxWatcher referenced them before.

        Typical bullseye area for OES.

        Reply

  12. Wordle 3.

    My new first two words continue to help me a lot but even with four letters from them, this was a really hard one.

    Reply

    1. Those maps “could” very well be under doing the Ocean Effect Snows S&E of Boston. Boston may see some fringe snow from OES, but not much that is for sure.

      Reply

          1. That is what I thought. I wonder if the South shore has their own little private snowstorm of 6+ inches. Will be watching for that.

            If Boston gets any it will be in the 4AM to 9 or 10AM tomorrow time frame. I am not counting on it, but possible.

            Reply

  21. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png

    Arctic oscillation. 4-5 standard deviations below avg. wow !! But makes sense, the polar hasn’t been in the arctic, it’s been in southeast Canada. And that massive anomaly isn’t ending anytime soon.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    NAO negative

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.gefs.sprd2.png

    PNA trending to neutral

    I believe TK has said the MJO around phase 6, if not in it. (Don’t hold me to that 🙂 )

    Put it all together ….

    Cold with arctic or polar shots of air continuing. Clipper pattern that may trend to other types of low tracks when the PNA gets more neutral. Potential blocking on clipper systems through midrange.

    Reply

  22. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/hatteras-web-cam/

    Looking hard, it is snowing in Cape Hatteras.

    I’ve been fortunate enough to vacation a few times on the Outer Banks.

    This could be devastating for them. Yes, the snow will present its own problem.

    But the wind and the storm surge. They sometimes get 2 surges, first from the ocean and then from Pamlico Sound when the wind goes NW or W.

    I hope it’s not too too bad.

    Reply

    2. First vacation there, I will never forget …..

      A storm and the front half had some wind, but behind the storm a high was building in from way to the west and so, for a day, the wind was strong NW.

      We had a rental on Pamlico sound, west side of hatters, and there had to be a 2-4 ft surge.. the water raised over the mini wall and covered the yard. It was wild. That’s when I learned that they also have surge issues on both sides of the outer banks.

      Reply

  23. FWIW, the 12Z RRFS-A does not show much of an OES
    signal at all. A few flurries, maybe. Disappointed in this model, but then perhaps it is correct and there won’t even be much of any OES. Who knows.

    Pete B. Downplayed the OES last evening for whatever reason.
    He didn’t explain why. He also modified his snow maps Downward while on air and showed them at the end of the broadcast. I don’t think I have ever seen than before.

    Reply

    2. I’ll be curious old salty if we get OES tonight here on the SS. Wankum was saying last night that would probably drop more snow vs the Sunday system . I have nothing to do so whatever it does it does .

      Reply

    1. I think I remember TK, right before the last storm, saying he had identified some biases in the RRFS A.

      I just don’t know if ocean effect was one of them. I’m going to guess it wasn’t.

      Reply

      1. I have no Idea, but I would have thought it would pick up on this, so MAYBE it’s onto something here and the OES basically doesn’t materialize.

        Reply

  26. Thanks TK! I once did that in living in Minnesota when the actual air temp was 25 below zero. Instant cloud when we threw the boiling water. The other trick we did is soaking a pair of Jeans and then standing it up in the snow when it instantly freezes. Like an invisible person wearing jeans

    Reply

  27. Everyone knows this, that February can provide the coldest air masses of the winter.

    With that said, I think, looking ahead at the teleconnections, the chances are higher than usual that we see something even colder than we have experienced to date.

    Reply

    1. Cold throughout most of february with a warmup towards the end looking the most feasible. Will have to consult with the rodent in the ground in a few days to get their opinion.

      Reply

    3. One time is around Feb 8-9

      That clipper intensifies east of us, but blocking parks it up in the Maritimes for a couple days.

      No telling what an intense gale up there could grab and advect strongly into New England in pristine condition with the snowpack around.

      Reply

      1. BINGO. That could do it. NOT that I want it ever to be that cold. I worry about frozen pipes in this old house.

        A few years ago, it was -10 and the old house came through unscathed. But colder than that, I dunno. I have newer furnaces/boilers cranking down there and they don’t give off much heat (delivers it all upstairs), so basement can get pretty cool. I have the main water line coming in insulated, but one never knows.

        Reply

        1. I really remember that one a few years ago because it fell on my father-in-laws bday and we had plans to go out to dinner and stuck with them, but it sure was cold!

          And I remember that back decks wood making almost cracking sounds.

          Same in our house, the heat can be cranked and parts of the downstairs can be really chilly.

          Reply

  29. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026013112&fh=156

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026013112&fh=186

    Hints at explosive cyclogenesis again with a clipper. Closer to home, not saying that means an impact of any kind.

    But as much as we watched tomorrow’s system for a week, starting tomorrow, this needs to become the focus, because 1 option out of dozens can be for a track near or just south of the south coast while this could be rapidly intensifying.

    Reply

    1. Right now the most likely outcome next weekend appears to be a period of light snow/snow showers with the clipper. We may end up caught in no man’s land between the energy transfer from the dying clipper to the west and the developing coastal storm to our east. A solid swath of light to moderate snow across the Great Lakes from the parent clipper and then heavier snow across down east Maine and the Maritimes from the developing coastal. If we can get that clipper to dig a little more beneath us like some of the models have been showing from time to time, we may have a shot at something more significant.

      Reply

  31. By the looks of the Hanover market basket you’d think another major storm is coming , this place is crazy busy today

    Reply

  34. I find amazing that as massive as this storm will become, it’s going to completely miss all the big cities: DC, Baltimore, Philly, NYC and Boston (maybe flakes or dusting at best).

    Even the Cape doesn’t have much to really brag about. Just as well it’s a miss. Maybe some decent melting next week?

    Reply

    1. It’s probably a very good thing. A hit on some or all of the big cities would have had some pretty serious impacts, and I don’t mean just snowfall amounts.

      Reply

  35. Nice look on the 12z Euro for next weekend with the clipper digging beneath us. Verbatim it’s a few inches of snow as it doesn’t redevelop and really get going until it’s over the ocean and past us. But if we can get that whole evolution to dig a little more and slow down a bit, might squeeze a moderate to low end significant event out of it.

    Reply

    1. I actually like this signal. A little later than my original idea of 5th into 6th. Now I think 6th into 7th.

      Reply

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