DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
A powerful ocean storm passes by well to our southeast today. On the northwestern periphery of its circulation we see some ocean-effect snow from the MA South Shore to South Coast, and some synoptic snow from the storm itself over Cape Cod for a few hours, all resulting in a general 1-3 inch snowfall, which drops off quickly to nothing at all as you head west of the Route 24 area south of Boston. The city of Boston and Cape Ann MA can see a few ocean-effect flurries, but with no more than a dusting to 1 inch (especially Cape Ann). Any snow that accumulates will be hard to measure as a gusty northeasterly wind will blow it around. The storm pulls away tonight and our pattern from here is chilly and generally dry heading through the middle of this coming week. While we’re not in as deep a cold air mass as previously, it does stay generally colder than normal through Thursday. A disturbance passing by may produce snow showers or a period of light snow sometime on Wednesday, but this does not look like a significant system to contend with.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely MA South Shore to MA South Coast including Cape Cod, with a period of steadier snow midday-afternoon Cape Cod, with general snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Occasional snow showers Cape Ann MA to Boston with under 1 inch. Highs 18-25. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast with higher gusts, especially Cape Cod. Minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 9-16. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers, mostly southern areas and mostly morning. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Passing low pressure brings the chance of snow February 6-7, but not looking like a major storm system. Fair weather follows. Temperatures below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Some up-and-down temperatures but generally below normal with a couple threats for snow showers from passing disturbances.
Thanks TK.
Woke up to flakes here on the South Shore. Had I still lived in Boston, probably wouldn’t have experienced that much.
Haven’t seen any here and don’t expect to see any. If there were a few flakes overnight, no evidence of such left this morning. OES occurring in the usual locations as expected.
According to Jacob, back in 2015 at this time, Boston was facing 73.4” of additional snow for the season. The final total was 106.7”. ❄️
Final total was 110.
110.6 to be exact.
Oh that’s right! Thanks.
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 3
9 degrees with sun peeking out and flurries in the air at Gillette. I must be out of my mind. :-). Go Pats!
Are you down there Sue? 🙂
Yes, my son and I decided to come see them off.
Very special! Enjoy!
That’s so cool. Enjoy
WOW!!! Great job. Let’s see if I can get even close to that.
Enjoy !!
Awesome 3
Interesting that February 6-7 brings us a snow chance, even if it won’t be remotely close to 1978. A few inches maybe?
Right in the climatological peak of the snow season, so no surprise there.
If amounts are warranted, I’ll apply them 72 hours before onset, as usual.
Thanks TK!
Good morning TK
9 after low of 8
Ocean; 39
Wordle: 3
Don’t know how I did it. Only had 2 letters out of position after 2 guesses.
Awesome !
Thanks Tom.
Wow another 3. Super
watched Song sung blue last night.
It was only fair at best. Watch at your own peril. Kate Hudson saved what was salvageable. Didn’t care for Hugh Jackman’s acting or singing. Kate Husdon could definitely act and sing .
Thanks TK !
Gotten into those greens. We have steady snow, bordering on moderate.
Drove to the seawall and there’s a bit of splash over now. A little concerned because high tide is at 10:20am and just astronomically, the tide has about another 2 ft to rise. And the wave heights weren’t massive, but higher than I expected this morning. So, we’ll see if we cap off at minor coastal flooding.
Here’s hoping NO flooding.
The added curve ball perhaps, is in Brant Rock Village, if 1-2 ft of water end up in that bowl, there’s massive snow piles on either sides of the streets, so the water won’t necessarily have free flow to move around. I’m home now, I wasn’t stay around, as we get closer to high tide.
Wordle: 4
Nice!
Excellent !
Very good.
May I join you in the 4 car please
Looks to me as if OES,area is slowly drifting to the South. Not sure it is responding to surface winds, but rather winds at 925 mb. Of course, I could be out to lunch. I always like to eat anyway.
As the winds baclk to More Northerly, the OES will move Soutward.
Spot on !
🙂
Getting some light OES in Padanaram – wind at about 20mph due north
Thanks TK !
I forgot to play Wordle, I’ll have to report my result later.
Not for major snow at this point, but am interested to follow a potential high wind, extreme low wind chill event on the backside of a deepening low next weekend.
We’ll see how that holds or unfolds in the guidance this week.
Wordle: 5
You got it. Nice going.
Odd word to Me. Great to get it Tom
Agree that it is an odd word. 🙂
I struck out
Right now, per the Boston Harbor tide guage, there is a 1.6 ft surge.
The tide, astronomically has 1.1 ft to rise.
If this surge holds, 11 ft + 1.6 ft surge = 12.6 ft tide on the level at 10:20 am.
16 & snowing steadily , thanks Tk
OES as expected.
Nice batch of OES showing up in the usual locations as expected.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Hmm as I watch the loop closely, on the northern part of the echoes at the end of the loop, do I detect some slight Westward motion? Now, I am wondering IF any of that sneaks into Boston??? Time will tell. I doubt it, BUT will be watching. 🙂
Thanks TK
Thank you, TK. 8 here up from a low of 6
Congratulations on all the Wordle scores today.
I’m in the middle of the train with a 4. Yesterday I missed the train, so this feels good!
Nice 4.
This is like this time last Sunday as it’s snowing heavily & everything is covered
Yes, ocean effect can be pretty good sometimes.
I’d say we have an inch of new snow, but with the wind, it’s nothing in some places with drifts to a couple inches in other places.
Based on the totality of the radar the last few hrs, there must be a bit more around and just west of rte 3, as that area has had consistently green echoes, where I have been in and out of them in eastern Marshfield.
Agree
When I walked the shore today it was 8F, a 400% improvement from yesterday!
Euro 2M temperature map for next Sunday AM
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026020100&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Fortunately the game is not at Gillette!
12.51 ft at the guage in Boston Harbor.
The wind is NNW in Boston, but NNE down here, so we have the slightest more onshore component.
I wonder how it’s going for flooding in Scituate and Marshfield all the way down to the bayside of Cape Cod, as well as the north side of Nantucket.
Assuming more cold blasts in February, and March into April day that has high pressure overhead or nearby, that spring seabreeze is going to be cold to the core.
16NM out at the Boston harbor buoy, the temp is reading 39F and I’d assume it’s even a bit lower closer to the coastline.
and = any
The current radar says the storm’s synoptic snow for all intents and purposes didn’t even make it to Nantucket, at least as of now.
Perhaps a few flurries are rotating in from NE to SW
Sure looks that way.
The Sun is shining decently through the thin overcast here.
Clouded up again here.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2026020112&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2026020112&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Yes, sensible weather doesn’t provide much snow as the low is stalled in the Maritimes.
But, signs of blocking.
That upper low in the first link doesn’t slide ESE, it slides SSE almost right over us.
Yes, this is the GFS but if it’s onto the upper flow decently, then, if that retrogrades some to the west, then we could be susceptible to a blizzard.
If this verifies, we’re going to get a full day or two of strong, very gusty NW winds along with frigid temps.
There’s no consistency on this.
The GDPS is much flatter at 500 mb, sends a modest cold front through with a reasonable chilly breeze.
Couple of inches easily so far & still snowing
Yup, our own private snow event. 🙂
Should be tapering soon and then ending, can see the plume edging SE and the back edge getting closer.
We should definitely hit 3”
4th road flooded out Tom ( my old neighborhood
O.E.S. event going strong (stronger than model guidance suggested), but no surprise. May even over-achieve my 1-3″ forecast in some limited areas.
On a sad note, I honestly don’t remember if this was shared here previously, and if it was, I likely missed it. I missed the original post on social media about the passing of Mike Wankum’s dad back on January 15. He posted a thank you to all who sent condolences, so I sent him a message there on that follow-up post.
I know he occasionally checks in here as a lurker along with many other members of the local media, and on behalf of all here I send condolences to Mike and his family.
Sorry to hear and 2nd your thoughts.
Heartbreaking news.
Yes I knew about his loss , sad indeed . I think we continues to keep the trend on overachieving down here going , still snowing but the accumulation is done .
Pittsburgh shattered their low temp record yesterday with a -12F low obliterating the previous record of -5F set just a few years prior.
Also, parts of Narragansett Bay are freezing over with the most ice observed there since the late 1970s.
I know Marshfield airport has generally been around .75 to 1.25 miles visibility for around 3 hrs now.
With that, I’d guess 1.5 to maybe 2.5”, but it’s been breezy enough that it is somewhat difficult to tell.
21 1/2 to 1 snow to water ratio on the 11 inch snowstorm at Charlotte NC, which ranks 4th greatest snowfall in the city’s history. That’s insanely dry, fluffy snow for a location that far south.
Wow !
I’ve been seeing some photos on Facebook and webcams shots from Myrtle beach. Palm trees and snow.
A relative in Wilmington NC sent us photos of her yard, had to be 8”. They’ll be shut down til it moderates.
Even down there it will take the snow longer than typical to melt as they will continue to observe a below normal temperature pattern for the next few weeks. Snow piles will be hanging around much longer than typically seen.
Excellent !! (So long as everyone down there is safe and has power)
But yes, let them experience some true winter.
They have their chance to laugh back at us occasionally when we’re 98F and they are 92F, as that occasionally happens in summer.
The stinky part of this ocean enhancement overachieving on the south shore is, it probably gets a lot of the custodial staffs in the schools called in at some point, to have to shovel or re-clear places they already have cleared. I know it’s a lighter weight snow, but some or many may be losing part of an off day.
Should be overtime if you ask me .
WFO Mount Holly NJ recorded a -1F low this morning, which makes a 5-way tie for spots 7 through 11 on the 11 coldest days observed at that location.
Lows of -1F were recorded today, 1/21/2026, 1/23/2025, 1/24/2025, and 2/20/2015.
-2F was observed on 2/21/2015.
-3F was observed 3 times, 1/21/1994, 1/22/1994, and 2/6/1996.
There is a tie for the #1 coldest observed low temp at that location, which is -6F, achieved on back-to-back mornings, 1/19/1994 and 1/20/1994.
The o.e.s. event on the South Shore will now start to gradually shift its main focus south and east toward the Cape Cod Canal & Buzzard’s Bay, then over the Cape itself about the same time the shield of synoptic snow from the east rotates back over the Cape, accounting for the expected accumulation there while it comes to an end where it’s occurring now. This takes place as the storm center gains latitude, loses longitude, and the wind backs from northeast to northwest.
TK – Do you have any early thoughts on the weather conditions next week in Santa Clara?
While it shouldn’t be any worse than here or Denver, I always wonder if there is a “Pineapple Express” moving in this time of year. I don’t know what that phenomenon is called nowadays.
They will have several fair and mild days this coming week.
There will be a trough and frontal system approaching from the west on Sunday next week. Jury is out on timing. It may stay dry. It may begin raining that day. We’ll see how the trend goes. If I had to hedge my bet, I’d lean dry.
Full sun here now although no blue skies yet.
There will remain a veil of high clouds over you most of the day, and occasional lower clouds for a while still trying to spin in from the ocean.
Filtered sun here
Thanks, TK!
I’m told Greensboro NC had a foot of snow.
Thanks TK.
13F with filtered sun and breezy here in Coventry CT. Far cry from the 20″ blizzard with 5′ drifts some of the models were prognosticating last Monday.
Looks like a cold and dry pattern ahead. Doesnt look like much cooking this weekend with the clipper aside from some snowshowers and maybe a light accumulation. The models (especially the AI models) are depicting a more juiced up clipper middle of next week with light to moderate snow accumulation but still a ways off.
Near the end of their runs mid month, could be something more significant though may end up with a changeover event as the cold seems to be taking a break around that time.
Ben Noll
@BenNollWeather
2h
There’s some light at the end of the tunnel for the winter-weary East Coast.
A possible moderating trend during the week of Feb. 9!
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2017991329998159896?s=20
Yup! When around here it warms from “much below normal” to just “below normal”.
Not much moderation ahead.
12z Euro op is even warmer yet next week and depicts a cutter as well as a couple rain chances. You think it’s overdone?
Snow flurries were reported and documented in Brooksville, FL, a city about halfway between Tampa and Cedar Key.
The Wind Chill Factor for Tampa last hour was 34 degrees. Bruins and Bolts outdoors tonight at 6:30.
Incredible scenes from Myrtle Beach SC with near blizzard conditions amongst the palm trees…
Jamie Arnold WMBF
@jamiearnoldWMBF
11h
Just incredible scenes in North Myrtle Beach. Love it or hate it, take a moment to appreciate what is happening. Between the incredible snowfall totals many will wake up to, and the extreme cold, this storm will join the ranks of legends like the 1989 storm. #SCwx #NCwx @wmbfnews
https://x.com/jamiearnoldWMBF/status/2017841734940520947?s=20
Jordan Steele
@JordanSteele
5h
The driving scene right now in Myrtle Beach!
https://x.com/JordanSteele/status/2017937281605099892?s=20
Nags Head, NC on the Outer Banks. Unreal…
AccuWeather
@accuweather
4h
Near-blizzard conditions slam the Outer Banks as a bomb cyclone drives 60+ mph wind gusts and heavy snow along the North Carolina coast.
https://x.com/accuweather/status/2017954371485753827?s=20
Wild !
NWS Tampa Bay
@NWSTampaBay
6h
Sunday February 1st, 2026:
We were able to catch some of the flurries here at the office, around 4:45am this morning. ❄️
Temperatures today will only warm into the 40s and 50s. Tonight the lows are back in the 20s and 30s. Stay warm out there.
https://x.com/NWSTampaBay/status/2017927802981384562?s=20
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2026020112&fh=138
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2026020112&fh=156
The Euro op run does it too.
Not about of snow with this, but just the idea that blocking is forcing this impressive 500 mb SSE ! This would also support a day or 2 of strong NW winds accompanied by arctic temps.
Have to monitor the NAO indice for next weekend. If it’s under forecasting the NAO for next weekend, 7 days out, this could end up further south and west of us and then the clipper intensification would be captured that much closer to us.
Eastern Maine gets hammered pretty good by that retrograding clipper turned coastal bomb next weekend on the 12z Euro. Its a close call….definitely bears watching.
Some Humarock roads are not seeing splashover. Where it is splashing over, several have said the snowbanks are blocking it.
Good 🙂
To follow up on TK’s comments about Narragansett Bay is starting to freeze over. I live near by,the solid ice is spreading towards the main shipping channel.
During the mid seventies the Coast Guard cutters had to come up to Providence in order for home heating oil to be offloaded. If I recall the summer of 76 or 77 were very warm to hot.
You are correct. Both summers were hot or at least very warm.
I would be curious if, in fact, much of the east coast from northern Florida to Maine has at least “some” measurable snow on the ground.
If so, is it unprecedented?
I don’t believe it’s unprecedented, but it would be quite, quite rare.
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=MYNN&hours=72
Nassau, Bahamas is 54F.
Even down to Jamaica, the cold front has pushed though. Yes, it’s 77F in Kingston, Jamaica, but the have a NW wind gusting to 44 mph and the dp is dropping significantly.
A push of cool, dry air all the way to 15N latitude and maybe even a little further south than that.
https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=car&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=MUHA&hours=72
Havana Cuba is 63F with a 44F dewpoint.
I think Cuba is headed into the 50s, we’ll see how low into the 50s tonight and low elevation areas of Jamaica may take a run at 60F.