Monday February 2 2026 Forecast (7:33AM)

50 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Just had a zoom coffee with Punxutawey Phil and now he’s going out to meet his public while I write today’s blog. We agreed that I’ll handle the next 15 days and he can handle the next 4 to 6 weeks. 😉 Let’s get to it! The story is cold this week, but not quite as cold as last week during this 5-day period as we are in a dry pattern through midweek. A disturbance passes by Tuesday night and early Wednesday and may produce snow showers south of I-90 but for the most part this system looks like a miss. We’ll look to the west for a more formidable clipper-style low pressure area heading our way by Friday, bringing a chance of snow or snow showers. A little more about this chance as we head through the next few days.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 3-10. Wind diminishes to calm.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. A snow shower possible south of I-90 overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A snow shower possible south of I-90 early. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 15-22. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs 23-30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Watching the potential for a serious cold outbreak on the February 7-8 weekend, then a slight relaxing of the cold thereafter with dry weather followed by the potential for unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Some up-and-down temperatures but generally below normal with a couple threats for snow showers from passing disturbances.

P.S. – I just got a message from Phil. Shadow seen – six more weeks of winter ahead! Enjoyyyyyyyy!

50 thoughts on “Monday February 2 2026 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    15 here

    Ocean: 39

    Wordle: 4
    Had 3 letters in correct position after 3 guesses and had no clue. It was during letter substitution that I finally saw it. For a common word, I found it to be most difficult. Oh well, I did get it.

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  8. Thanks, TK.

    Analogous to the (modest) autumnal chill that one almost always gets at some point in August, we’ll have a (modest) warm-up next week, which I think can overachieve with the improving sun angle, This doesn’t mean winter’s over, of course, but it will be a blow.

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  9. I’m not counting on much snow for the foreseeable future. Actually, I’m not counting on much precipitation of any kind for the foreseeable future. We are in a VERY dry period, which doesn’t bode well for brush fire season. Don’t be fooled by all the snow you see around you, it’s been and continues to be quite dry.

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    1. Today is just the 2nd. We still have the rest of this month and March to catch up. I would think this 2 feet of snow (melted) should help a lot.

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  14. Thanks TK.

    Looks like the most likely outcome from the weekend clipper system at this point is light snow/snowshowers and little accumulation. Still looks like we are going to be caught in the dead zone/energy transfer between the parent clipper and developing coastal. That said, 0z GFS had an interesting solution last night with explosive redevelopment and the low retrograding and looping back to just off the coast of Eastern MA. Verbatim it was 6″+ for Boston and a lot of cold and wind. So still bears watching.

    Looking ahead to next week, the GFS AI is quite bullish on a midweek system while Euro AI keeps it mostly north.

    Both models have a larger system around the 15th and the GFS AI looks like it would be a major snowstorm while the Euro AI would be snow to mix to rain. Temp profiles are more marginal by then depending what model you look at.

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  16. Re: Melting snow helping drought / abnormally dry conditions.

    Very little help. Almost none. Snow to water ratio was high. And we’ve already lost nearly 1/4 of the moisture to sublimation, not melting.

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  18. Noticing the GFS and Euro AI models are less “torchy” than the operational models next week into mid February. I’m also a bit skeptical at the mild surges and cutters being modeled in the long range.

    Looking at the teleconnections, at least the GEFS forecast, the AO, NAO and PNA are all trending neutral towards mid month but there is quite a bit of spread in the guidance. No strong signal on the MJO either. Looks to be pretty weak towards mid month and beyond.

    Overall not a particularly exciting pattern for the next couple weeks and our next larger event mid month may not end up all frozen.

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  19. For those of you who are interested, I’ve posted 4 Forbes articles thus far this month. My focus, as you know, is healthcare and policy.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/

    I am not sure how much longer I will post pieces for Forbes. Viewership is way down, for practically all contributors (about 3 to 6 times fewer views, in my case). Could be AI. Could be that people read less. Who knows. Freelance writing has become a very difficult business to be in. Thankfully, it’s only part of what I do.

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  23. Yesterday, my daughter swam at the Ladies’ Pond in Hampstead Heath (it’s a massive park in North London; I consider it the most beautiful urban park that I’ve ever seen). https://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/things-to-do/green-spaces/hampstead-heath/where-to-go-at-hampstead-heath/kenwood-ladies-pond

    The water temperature isn’t exactly warm. But Lisa somehow managed. Here’s a table with the water temp in Celsius: https://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/things-to-do/green-spaces/hampstead-heath/activities-at-hampstead-heath/swimming-at-hampstead-heath/water-temperatures

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