Tuesday February 3 2026 Forecast (7:30AM)

62 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Cold, generally dry weather continues through midweek, with just one disturbance going by late tonight and early tomorrow causing possible snow showers – basically a no-impact event, other than to reinforce the cold a little, but still not to the level of recent cold. However, another system passing by that can bring some light snow Friday night and early Saturday will deliver an arctic air mass, quite evident during the day Saturday when the temperatures don’t really go up, but the wind does. More next discussion.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. A snow shower possible mostly south of I-90 overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A snow shower possible mostly south of I-90 early. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 13-20. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 15-22 early, then falling. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Dry, very cold February 8, then a moderation but still below normal with fair weather until late period when there is a chance of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Up-and-down temperature pattern – near to below normal for the period, with a couple unsettled periods but no major storms expected.

62 thoughts on “Tuesday February 3 2026 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  2. The 500 mb disturbance is overhead and trying to close off next Friday night/early Saturday

    Here we are, lower in the column, at 850 mb and can see some very light NE and E flow off the ocean for a few hrs. This is when the Euro paints some light snow.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850wh&rh=2026020300&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Still a sneaky snow potential in eastern or the eastern half of southern new England, IF, this ends up slightly further west.

    The GFS looks quite similar to this, but is probably 30-50 miles further east.

    Reply

      1. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2026020300&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2026020300&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2026020300&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2026020300&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Split camp (Euro/ICON compared to GFS/GDPS)

        Reply

        1. The ICON at hr 114 or 120, I forget which, really cranks a low level NE jet onto the south shore and thus, rotates quite a heavy band of snow right in, off the ocean.

          So, how that 500 mb feature tracks and its corresponding 700 and 850 mb circulations track with it bear some watching. It will determine snow at sea, due east of us, vs snow in eastern to central Mass.

          Reply

  4. Thanks TK. Hearing some mention of somewhat milder temps starting next week. Not the end of winter but maybe fewer arctic blips. Is this realistic?

    Reply

    2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png

      Just this teleconnection alone, says that overall in north america, the coverage of arctic air in the US is due to reduce drastically and lift north.

      A massively negative AO says the polar vortex is displaced from the arctic circle. And it was, it was closer to us than the arctic circle.

      A positive AO says the polar vortex usually restrengthens and relocates back to the arctic circle taking most of the arctic air with it.

      Certainly, other teleconnections to monitor too, but yes, this screams moderation in temps.

      Reply

      1. Lots of spread in those ensemble members and the mean by mid month is just about neutral. So moderation yes, but not at all convinced the PV strengthens to the point where it goes strongly positive and floods the US with mild Pacific air.

        PNA and NAO are going neutral mid month as well so no strong signals here of a complete pattern flip.

        Reply

  6. Thanks TK.

    Tom, noticed what you were discussing as well on the overnight and morning models. The clipper and coastal redevelopment Friday are happening a bit further south and you even see a norlun trough type feature developing on some of the guidance (aka ICON). Could be a steadier period of light snow that is good for an inch or two in many places with a few pockets of heavier amounts if that feature develops or there is ocean enhancement.

    The AI models are a bit more bullish on next week’s clipper as well (2-11/12) with a swath of light to moderate snow accumulations somewhere dependent on track.

    Still a good storm signal for Valentines Weekend as well on most guidance.

    Reply

  7. So as many of you know, tonight there will be a 5PM sunset. So here is today’s lineup:

    Sunrise: 6:56 AM Sunset: 5:00 PM
    Civil Twilight: 6:27 AM 5:30 PM
    Nautical Twilight: 5:53 AM 6:03 PM
    Astronomical Twilight: 5:20 AM 6:36 PM

    The definitions of Civil, Nautical, and Astronomical have to do with number of degrees the sun is below the horizon.

    Reply

  8. I learned that back in the 1800s when Punxsutawney Phil’s “predictions” first began — that would also cook and eat the groundhog. Meteorologists today don’t know how good they have it.

    Reply

    1. Yummie, tastes like chicken!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
      I highly doubt it. I’ll bet it tastes gammy and musty!
      I’d puke my guts up.

      Reply

  11. After a few guesses in Wordle, I had a hard time thinking of any possibilities. Then I thought of two and picked the wrong one! I ended up with 5.

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    1. You all go it. A bunch of 5s and a 6 today. I guess I was very lucky today, as it is not often I come in ahead of all of you. 🙂

      Reply

  20. Temps will under-achieve many forecasts today where the effects of the deep snowcover were ignored. Take away 3 to 5 degrees to get the 26-33 range that will occur for most of the region.

    Reply

  23. With the very light winds today, I can’t help but notice Logan’s and Marshfield’s winds are light onshore.

    Even with the snow cover, I suppose we’re building up enough ‘mildness’ away from the frigid, near shore ocean water to send that air rising and replacing it with a very early, light seabreeze.

    Reply

        1. From what I have been reading, the early feedback is that they have been sniffing things out sooner than the current operational models and they make more gradual adjustments from run to run as opposed to the wild swings you often see with the operationals.

          Reply

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