Wednesday February 4 2026 Forecast (7:27AM)

62 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Some quick changes will take place during this 5-day period but without having to deal with any major storms. We will have to deal with a potent shot of arctic air before we finish the weekend, however. But back to today first, we have a disturbance passing south of our region and some low and mid level moisture associated with it passing through with a fair amount of clouds the first part of the day. A few snow flurries can occur under these clouds, but if you see any, then will have no impact on your travel or plans. A weak area of high pressure moves in later today through Thursday and into Friday with fair weather. Late Friday, a frontal boundary approaches from the west while a stronger ocean storm stays well offshore and scoots out to sea. With an upper trough in place, the initial low pressure, separate from the ocean storm, parenting the cold front will be moving by to our north and redeveloping a little closer-by, near NY State, slowing and bending the frontal boundary, and then redeveloping again during Saturday offshore to our southeast. This system is also destined to become a strong ocean storm, but will do so far enough away from our region so that we will only see some snowfall from the transfer of the first redeveloped low to the offshore storm-to-be. This means the snowfall, which occurs from late Friday night into Saturday, will be relatively minor. What the offshore storm will do is help pull in the aforementioned arctic air mass for Saturday night and Sunday, with well below normal temperatures and gusty winds making it feel even colder to finish off the weekend.

TODAY: Lots of clouds and a possible snow flurry until mid morning, then a mix of sunshine and clouds. Highs 26-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow with expected accumulation of a coating to 2 inches. Highs 20-27. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: A possible snow squall early, otherwise clearing. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below zero.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 10-17. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill often below zero.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Fair weather and moderating temperatures February 9-11. Low pressure area from the west brings unsettled weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Up-and-down temperature pattern – near to below normal for the period, with a couple unsettled periods but no major storms expected.

62 thoughts on “Wednesday February 4 2026 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Wordle: 5

    Neat leading edge of the cloud shield this morning. Quite a straight line from north to south, with a very abrupt leading edge.

    Reply

    1. That edge was out in NY state at sunset last night. It never changed much at all on its trek eastward. That cloud deck is now encountering drier and will start to break up.

      Reply

      2. Thank you. Seems to be clicking a little better for me.
        I seem to have a different mind set lately while attacking this game.

        hey, 4 is good. 🙂

        Reply

  5. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: Barely made the caboose with a 6. Had 4 letters in the right place by guess number 3 and sh*t luck picking the last letter needed. Such is the life of a Wordler.

    Reply

  13. Watching the 12z stuff run.

    I think very close to the coast this weekend is really on the edge of at least an advisory level snowfall.

    Looking at how the 500 mb flow is developing and looking at the 700, 850 and 925 mb winds, its close to NE flow. Just simply another 5 or maybe 10 degrees of veering and the snow will linger along the coast a lot longer than being modeled. Its close !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Reply

  15. GFS has the Valentine’s day threat, a day late and out to sea

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026020412&fh=258&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    GFSAI has a good hit 2 days earlier

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026020412&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    48 hr qpf

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2026020412&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    GDPS has it on the 14th poised to come up here

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2026020412&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=500wh&rh=2026020412&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

  17. Noticing the 12z Euro and GFS AI models (as well as the 12z Canadian) seem to be putting more focus now on the mid-late week threat next week (2/11-13) as opposed to V-Day weekend.

    Euro AI and Canadian would deliver a moderate snowfall while the GFS AI would be a bit more significant.

    Then you have the 0z Euro AI and 6z GFS op that still had a pretty big hit over V Day weekend.

    Obviously need more time to resolve as it is still a ways out there but looking more active with 1-2 threats in that ~2/11-2/15 window.

    Reply

    1. 12z Euro op is weak for 2/12 with a bit of snow and sleet but looks like it is going BIG with the V-Day weekend coastal….

      Reply

              1. I saw that about an hour ago, but didn’t have a chance to post, but I knew that reliable Mark would.

                Thank you.

                It is some 10 days out, so I wouldn’t exactly count on this, but it is pretty cool seeing it projected like this the same!

                Reply

              2. Shows 6 hour snow rates of nearly 12 inches in one 6 hours stretch and 9 inches next 6 hour stretch.

                2 inches per hour for 6 hours and 1.5 inches per hour for another 6 hours.

                And 1 inch per hour for the 6 hours leading up to it

                Reply

                1. It’ll come and go on the models over the next week but there is, and has been, a signal there in that timeframe….and on the ensembles too.

                  We are going to be skiing up at Sunday River that weekend as well, which increases my confidence we will probably get something while I am gone or traveling!

  20. IF ever the Euro verified on the big pieces (500, 700, 850, low track, etc) I don’t know that you’d be happy about what that storm would produce at mid month.

    The Euro has to be running 1-4F too cold and peeking at the Valentine’s Day solution, it simulates marginal temps at the boundary layer during a good part of that system.

    Reply

  21. We all know that the only model that will be shared on social media this afternoon will be the 12z ECMWF operational, because that’s the only one that shows a big snowstorm. And well, ya know, the hype! Gotta have the hype for something that has virtually no support from neighboring guidance, nor from its own ensemble. But hey, details!

    The rest of my afternoon thoughts…

    No changes for now. I think there may be a bit of an overreaction also occurring in some media on the snow chances for Saturday. Seems to be a lot of heavy leaning on the NAM, you know, the model that can’t forecast its way out an open box, the same one that’s being discontinued soon, and yes, the same one that is outside its optimal range for whatever usefulness we can still attribute to it. 😉

    Now I’m certainly not saying that a little more snowfall than I have indicated in my first guess is impossible to get, but we’re not about to see a sneaky major snowstorm either.

    Reply

      1. Wildcard is what develops offshore and migrates onshore, with some potential ocean enhancement. I can see a couple patches or bands of 2-5 inches from this event. Currently my forecast is for a coating to 2 inches in general, but I’ll pour over the new guidance tonight & early tomorrow, updating if needed.

        Reply

  27. The very first winter olympics event ran a bit earlier – downhill training for the men’s race. I stream everything and watch what I can’t watch in full through the highlights. Several curling matches today too, a couple days ahead of the opening ceremony.

    Always look forward to these events. Olympics to me are like as close as we ever get to world peace. And I love watching the athletes in all the sports get to do what they train very hard for.

    A lot of this stuff gets made fun of, and sometimes put down, but that’s done by the ignorant. The athletes have dreams and they take them seriously, put in the time, and should be applauded for the effort. I’ll always do that, no matter who they represent. 🙂

    Reply

Leave a Reply to JpDave Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *