Wednesday February 11 2026 Forecast (6:56AM)

103 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Low pressure redeveloped east of our region last night and will move northeastward toward Atlantic Canada through Thursday. A trough coming around the back side of this system will bring a snow shower chance this evening to eastern areas after fair weather today. Fair weather returns Thursday though it will be breeze between the storm well to our northeast and high pressure to the southwest of New England. High pressure noses into the region with fair and more tranquil weather for Friday before a small but potent disturbance will bring a cold front through the region Saturday with a snow shower chance. This will be followed by fair weather on Sunday, but some increase in cloudiness later as the next low pressure approaches the East Coast from the west (more about this system in the next section after the detailed forecast).

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers southeastern NH and eastern MA evening. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of snow showers. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Watching for a potential storm threat for February 16 but leaning toward a pass out to sea to the south. Will monitor trends and update the outlook for this day accordingly. Fair and seasonable weather a good portion of next week following this threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

A couple disturbances passing through triggering some up-and-down temperatures and minor precipitation threats, but no major storminess is indicated during this period. A stronger shot of cold air may arrive late in the period.

103 thoughts on “Wednesday February 11 2026 Forecast (6:56AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    30 here

    Ocean: 38

    Looks like 1 1/2 to 2 inches here. Have not measured yet.

    Wordle: 4

    Reply

      2. Good getting it, Tom. I don’t know if the words are getting harder or my concentration is off or both. I had to out it aside at midnight again and work on it this morning.

        Wordle 5

        Reply

        2. Way to go, Vicki !

          Yes, I’ve been thinking the same thing, tougher words or words that maybe aren’t used frequently, but that we know.

          Reply

  4. Just measured. exactly 1.5 inches here.

    The RDPS was on another planet with this one while the RRFSA was just about spot on. Another feather in it’s cap. 🙂

    Reply

  5. Thanks TK.

    A very serene snowy landscape this morning!

    Boston (Logan): 1.9” NOT bad! ❄️

    I do wish that Logan measurement could have squeezed an additional 0.1” though.

    Reply

    1. 1.9. 2.0. Same thing. They push further ahead of normal-to-date and very close to entering my 45-55 forecast range for their seasonal snow.

      Reply

      1. Yup, now it’s gonna be a while before we cover things up again unless…

        -This evening’s snow showers are more potent than I expected. (Very slightly possible.)
        -Saturday’s snow showers are more widespread and heavier than I expect. (Slightly possible.)
        -The Monday miss is not a miss and it’s cold enough for snow. (Least likely.)

        Reply

  10. Thanks TK.

    Only had a brief burst of heavy snow here in Coventry last night before it turned over to a sleet mix. Under a half inch when all was said and done.

    0z Euro had a huge ocean storm again that gives us a healthy sideswipe on Presidents Day and obliterates ACK with 30” of snow. 0z EPS an AI EPS were also well NW. Links posted at the end of the last blog.

    Still not a ton of support for this solution on the other models however.

    Reply

    1. 6z Euro was way north as well and drops 1.5” QPF Hartford to Boston and well over 2” SE MA. It was a warmer solution though so would not be all snow.

      Reply

    2. 0z and 6z ICON a hit as well but with mostly rain. It’s ensemble mean however is further southeast.

      6z GFS a weak miss well to the south and continues to look nothing like the above two.

      Reply

  12. Mark mentioned the 6Z Euro

    Looks to be messy, with snow to rain to snow and a lot of it.

    This shows where it is back to snow from rain.
    This looks like dynamical cooling to me? (Dynamic cooling refers primarily to
    a meteorological process where strong, upward-moving, and heavy precipitation (especially snow) cools the atmosphere from the top down, often changing rain to snow in intense winter storms)

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2026021106/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2026021106/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

    Reply

  15. JpDave describes it above.

    My opinion, unless you want to see a cold rain either waterlog the snow or melt some of it, I kind of think you want that Valentine’s Day weekend storm to miss.

    I see the Euro thinks it would be cold enough in southern New England, but I’d be skeptical.

    Antecedent airmass will not be cold, at least part of high pressure is moving east of us, instead of all of it being north or northeast of us, etc. And the Euro has been running colder than most other models.

    Reply

  19. 1.2 here in Quincy. Well behind Boston’s total, relatively speaking.

    I believe Boston’s total snowfall to date is now 41.4”. I will verify later today when afternoon daily climatological stats come out.

    Reply

  21. Next week’s melting will be rather significant if indeed 40s verify. This isn’t just related to the higher temps. It’s also due to the sun angle. Obviously, it won’t melt everything. But in urban areas like mine I think some grassy patches on the Esplanade and in the Public Garden will become visible at some point next week.

    Reply

    1. The good news is that it will likely be a gradual melt unless the possible rainstorm on Monday hits. I’m hoping for a miss and a gradual melt.

      By the way, I do not think it’ll snow at the coast – at least not much – if the storm manages to hit on Monday as a nor’easter. Signs point to mostly cold rain at the coast should the storm not go out to sea.

      Reply

    2. I wonder if you meant to write rain to snow?

      polar high building in to our north in this simulation and at hr 174, there are areas that are rain that then simulate as snow at hr 180. 🙂

      Reply

  31. Regarding the Monday “threat”.

    ICON – no phase / miss
    GDPS – no phase / graze-miss
    UKMET – no phase / miss
    GFS – no phase / miss
    ECMWF – TBD, but previous runs phasing are suspect given the upper pattern that will be taking place out West. It doesn’t jive. I do expect a correction.

    ALL of that said, we’re still one day away from giving op runs more weight – still in mostly ensemble mode.

    Reply

    1. More sun than I expected this morning – boosted the temps a bit more. If we had no snow cover, we’d have been approaching 50 today.

      Now a lot of stratocumulus are capping the heating.

      Reply

  33. Final snow reports are in.

    Under 1 inch immediate South Coast, as was expected.
    3-5 inches southern NH and extreme northern MA and most especially northern Essex County MA, as was expected.
    1-3 inches elsewhere, which was also expected.

    Reply

    1. The Clippers have been quite productive this season here in SNE. In previous years, either rain or nothing at all with any snow restricted to NNE. 🙂

      That WAS a Clipper system wasn’t it?

      Reply

      1. It was a clipper-hybrid, but yes basically a clipper.

        We have had many of these, and even several of them that have had their low centers pass to our north have produced light to moderate snowfalls.

        This is a pattern we saw a lot during the -AMO phase in the 1970s and 1980s. The AMO has been largely positive since the 1990s, but had a negative spike starting last year. Immediately the pattern reverted to ones similar to those we saw back then. So you see what we have to look forward to as we had back toward the genuinely negative AMO, which may be only a handful of years away now.

        The AMO (combined with the current impacts of Hunga Tonga) are the two most influential things on global patterns right now, in my scientific opinion.

        Reply

  34. Bernie Rayno seems to be hinting that he feels the southern solution of the guidance is incorrect and the Monday storm may be destined to hit New England.

    He didn’t really say why other than it had to do with one of several “pieces of energy” entering the US via California.

    I’d like to hear more about how this leads him to that thought, so I’ll be looking for future posts from him on it.

    Reply

      1. Well, so do I. I was just relaying Bernie’s message.

        That said, it’s too soon to be confident on either solution.

        Reply

    2. Most interesting. He certainly has been around and has much experience, but then again, he isn’t always correct. 🙂

      Reply

  35. Wordle – 3.

    Speaking of wordle… there’s a live nightly game called “savvy” in the app store. It’s hosted by a guy who used to do a live trivia show called “hqtrivia”. It’s a neat concept: there are five rounds. The first four rounds the words you’re playing wordle and the length of the words are anywhere from 3 to 5 letters. You figure out each word, move on to the next round. On the fifth round you need to guess what the word is and it will be a word that tied the first four together. So for example one night the answers in the four rounds were: coat, pig, pony, dove. Then the fifth round came and I typed “tail” and was correct. (Ponytail, pigtail, dovetail, coattail)

    Six random people that beat the host (he plays against everyone) get a “hammer” to break their piggy bank and take any money they’ve earned. It’s free! 🙂

    Reply

  36. Is it my imagination or not?

    It seems that every time there is a system that is iffy if it is coming up here and most guidance says out to the South, either the 6Z or 18Z EURO brings it up here contradictory to the 0Z or 12Z euro.
    Then the 0Z or 12Z Euro once again takes it South.

    Is this a function of the euro OR the less dense data points at
    6Z and 12Z?

    Thanks

    Reply

    1. I have noticed the same thing too. Not sure if it is a sampling thing or truly just a coincidence. Though last night and this AM, the 0z and 6z Euro both had big hits.

      I have also noticed that the ensembles are following what the operational is doing as well. 0z EPS was quite NW and robust last night similar to the operational while the 12z EPS this afternoon was further SE and less impressive, again following the op’s lead.

      Reply

  37. 18z ICON is a miss. Ensemble mean looks similar to the op though it does have 5 or 6 members stronger and further NW.

    Reply

      1. Nothing would surprise with the Euro. That model has had a rough time sniffing things out this winter and has been last to catch on several times now. I think this one is cooked.

        I do think we could have a potentially more intriguing setup later next week as we have a system arriving from the west and we are near the boundary of cold air to the north and much milder air to the south. All models currently showing something around that time period.

        Reply

  39. did someone mention higher sun angle?

    I did NOT bother to removed ANY of the snow today.

    I had to go out to the store this PM and my car was clear of the 1.5 inches of snow as well as my driveway and walks.

    Reply

  41. According to Eric, our “mid-winter” pattern is over and our “late winter” pattern has begun.

    TK – Is he correct?

    Reply

    1. Melancholic moment for me. I loved the trough of this winter. However, there’s still some winter left. Just quite limited the next 7 to 10 days.

      I guess EF would call what we’re into now a late winter pattern. But it’s worth mentioning that late winter in SNE often extends into April. And a sharp break with the possibilities of cool air intrusions can often extend into early June. I don’t think we have a well-defined spring. I acknowledge that opinions differ on this matter.

      Reply

    2. I’m watching the news now. He did say arctic air is being replaced with warmer temps. TK has the warmer temps too Did you see this on the news?

      Reply

    3. Found it. He said “We are definitely in a different type of pattern going forward….more of a late winter pattern and not a mid winter pattern ”

      Reply

  43. What Jeremy R said a day or 2 ago and what Eric said tonight ….. of course they make sense.

    Getting towards mid February, the vast majority of times, you’re getting past the heart of winter. Exceptions like 2015 occur but that’s the exception.

    It’s very symmetric our seasons probably because we’re really the ultimate location of the mid latitudes. Thus, getting to mid August, one could say you’re getting past the heart of summer.

    I’m both cases, you can still experience short extreme versions of winter and summer after mid Feb and mid August, but, Jeremy and Eric have hit the nail on the head. (In my opinion) 🙂

    Reply

  44. Today’s 6-10 CPC temperatures have a near “blowtorch” for the northeast (at least from my perspective) while the 8-14 the warmth backs off considerably (although still above normal).

    I wonder if tomorrow’s temperature outlook goes back to normal? Wouldn’t surprise me.

    I do hope we have one more “moderate” snow event before this month is over. No more two footers though. One per season is enough thank you. 😉

    Reply

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