Tuesday February 17 2026 Forecast (8:39AM)

148 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Lots to monitor the next few days as our pattern sets up to feature cold high pressure in Canada, continued milder air to our south, and a boundary between them hanging out in our general region. Today, a weak disturbance moving through this morning will bring a touch of light snow and perhaps a few patches of freezing drizzle to the region. The latter could create some slipper spots on any untreated surfaces, but this will not be widespread. Another surge of moisture comes along the boundary on Wednesday, producing a rather narrow area of snow / mix / rain in a west-northwest to east-southeast orientation across our region. The higher snow chances are to the north, while rain and pockets of sleet occur to the south, with a trend for a rain and mix to snow line to drift southward with time, but this will only last about 6 to 10 hours before it pushes off to the southeast and drier air arrives later at night. Dry conditions and some sunshine are expected on Thursday before the next moisture surge arrives later on Friday with another round of snow / mix / rain from sometime that afternoon through Friday night. The disturbance that causes that will organize into a slightly stronger low pressure area as it departs by early Saturday, and upper level low pressure moving through can trigger some additional snow showers on Saturday.

TODAY: Cloudy this morning with a couple periods of very light to light snow and a few potential pockets of freezing drizzle. Clouds break for sun at times this afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow arrives midday on. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening with snow accumulation of a coating to 1 1/2 inch, except pockets of 1 1/2 to 3 inches possible in higher elevations mainly north of Route 2. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow, tapering off overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

General “battle-zone” pattern stays in place heading into the final week of February. Watching another storm passing to the south later February 22, favoring a weaker, progressive system with some lighter snowfall here. Fair weather interlude follows before more unsettled / wintry weather threatens by late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Wintry weather threat ends February and another may start March before fair, cold weather ends the period.

148 thoughts on “Tuesday February 17 2026 Forecast (8:39AM)”

  1. Very light snow falling here in Woburn – not enough for notable accumulation – not that any was expected. 🙂

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  5. FTR: RRFS had the orientation / depiction of this morning’s precipitation most correct of all the short range guidance.

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  6. Good morning and thank you TK

    32 here after low of 26

    Ocean: 37

    Some snow showers here a few minutes ago.
    Don’t see any at the moment.

    Wordle: 5
    I struggled mightily on this one. After 4 guesses had 2 letters in position and 1 out of position. I was substituting letters and was about to give up. I must have been 15 minutes on guess 5.
    Finally I had an AHAH! moment and the word came to me!
    What a crazy game!!!

    TK you said for the Monday System: Watching another storm passing to the south later February 22, favoring a weaker, progressive system with some lighter snowfall here.

    Curious as to your reasoning there. Ensemble trends?
    Overall pattern? It’s just that the guidance finally “appears” to be closing in on a rather snowy solution and you’re basically saying forget about. Please help us understand. Much appreciated. Many thanks

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    1. My reasoning: Ensembles combined with overall pattern analysis (including factoring in over a half dozen large scale indices) combined with knowing the biases of each model based on how far between “now” and “event” time are, factoring in the specifics of the current pattern (at initialization and knowing which biases are triggered to which degree based on that).

      That’s a start, anyway.

      Looking at model output is about 10% of the entire process of forecasting.

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    1. I can’t remember that last time it rained.

      Been snow or nothing else really for a while, I think.

      Looking forward to a rain to snow small event.

      Glad a lot of the snow on roofs and my camper have melted. Wouldn’t have wanted to put any light rain into this much snow to have increased its weight.

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      1. We have cleared off most of our roof but, as you noted the other day, it would have been nice to have a day or two in the 50s over the last few weeks.

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    4. Welcome to the 3-car Vicki!

      That is an amazing number of yellow squares. 🙂

      I looked it up and the solution has just one anagram and it has all the letters in a different position. Amazing that you hit on that!

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  19. Thanks TK.

    Three snow events in the next 6 days likely for much of MA. Light tomorrow, light to moderate Fri/Sat, and potentially significant Sunday/Monday.

    Unfortunately tomorrow’s event and likely the Fri/Sat event as well look like more rain than anything else here in CT. Though we could be in better position to see something more significant from the Sun/Mon storm if it takes a more southern track.

    As luck would have it, we are away this weekend…traveling to Quebec City Friday and returning Monday so I am going to miss whatever happens but will still have the fun of dealing with the aftermath when we return Monday night!

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    1. Saw that! I wonder if it is on to something with the further south and colder track? Gets 3-5″ into northern CT and then nothing just south of me. Seems a bit overdone.

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  32. Day 1: Feb 17
    Day 2: Feb 18
    Day 3: Feb 19
    Day 4: Feb 20
    Day 5: Feb 21
    Day 6: Feb 22

    Op runs mean very little to nothing at the moment, and for about another 48 hours.

    Ensemble trend watching continues. Anticipated Model Error process also continues.

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      1. Because it’s the run of the model that takes the most raw form of the input data – the “regular” run. It will always be displayed this way. It’s the first run, and then the conditions are tweaked to simulate input errors to come up with a range of solutions that would result. These are the individual members, which are then averaged together to find the best possible simulation, in theory.

        You can pick any one member of the 50+ ensemble members and say the same thing about it outside day 4.

        This is why I heavily emphasize the MEAN of all of these this far in advance.

        It is far and away the best way to use this guidance at this time range.

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      1. So have I. But this still doesn’t lock anything in. We’re 6 days away.

        I’m just emphasizing the correct way to go about this from a forecasting standpoint, regarding the use of available guidance.

        Go on FB and everyone posts the operational run and that’s “the forecast”. Nope. Wrong.

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        1. Makes sense, I’m sure I would be taking a more measured approach if I were making a forecast. But this storm actually forms over the TN area on Saturday, which is 4 days from now so this is becoming more of a reality if models stay the course through tomorrow and especially Thursday.

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          1. There will be a “storm”, as in an area of low pressure. That’s been evident in that time window for quite a while now.

            But the details are still very, very elusive.

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  33. GEFS backed off ever so slightly at 12z. That’s not indicative of any trend yet, since it was up-ticking prior to this over a few ensemble cycles.

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    1. These are not too bad at this point, given potential error and the overall pattern being more progressive.

      Op runs eventually will “figure this out”.

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      1. Noticing though there are a few very weak SE members that are skewing these means. More members are stronger and further NW. And these means have been trending further in that direction run to run.

        They probably meet somewhere in the middle vs what the operational runs are showing now.

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      1. Still has a ways to go but is getting skewed by some weak SE members. Look at the trend though vs what this was showing yesterday…huge improvement.

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        1. The fact that the model has been consistent run after run after run. What is it now about 8 or 9 runs?
          That HAS to mean something, doesn’t it?

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  38. I’m not going to be whiny today about next Sunday-Monday potential.

    Instead, I will try to provide some additional info that could be affected …..

    Such as a 2:57am Monday high tide of 10.4 ft in Boston

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  40. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=500wh&rh=2026021712&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2026021712&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=500wh&rh=2026021712&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500wh&rh=2026021712&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=500wh&rh=2026021712&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The look at 500 mb from the 12z suite

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      1. We ate lunch at the 8200′ restaurant where that webcam is when we were there a few years ago. Spectacular view of the Lake and mountains from there. Not today though!

        They are already at 30″ and counting on the upper mountain.

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  42. Thank you, TK.

    After a very mild winter through early February in practically all of Greenland, very cold air (-63F) has arrived in the far north and most of the island is now either seasonably chilly or colder than normal.

    There’s a very good chance that spring will soon do its thing across the British Isles (certainly in the southern parts) and the low countries as a period of tranquil, partly sunny and 50s arrives by late this weekend. They need the sun as they’ve hardly seen it in months. This past week has been better, sunwise. Next week, higher temps will likely follow.

    I remember these periods well. As I had virtually never encountered a tranquil early spring in SNE. I was pleasantly surprised in late February/early March 1981; same in 1982. And by late March/early April we had very long stretches of the best spring weather I had ever had. April 1981 and April 1982 stood out, but also later years. Sure, you’d get a sporadic cool or even chilly day and some periodic light rain, but most of the time it was really tranquil and partly sunny. I experienced this in March 2022 in England, too. Not a drop of rain during my 10 -day visit then. Flowers bursting everywhere. What a difference 7 months makes, as in August 2021 I had plenty of rain and relatively cool temps (it was sometimes cooler in August than in late March, which isn’t that unusual over there).

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    1. Greenland = milder when block is in place / colder when it relaxes.

      There are a lot of people out there that don’t realize often far northern latitudes are “mild” when down here we are “cold”.

      This is a good example of that.

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  43. Big key for Sunday thing is regional block – high pressure near southern Hudson Bay, elongated trough just to its south across the Great Lakes.

    ECMWF suite has a better handle, IMO, in keeping the block quasi-stationary rather than too progressive, and the trough portion of it stronger yet more elongated. This is a more believable solution in the larger region’s pattern.

    This would result in a squeeze or a more progressive set-up to its south because of the strength of the Pac jet, which would not only delay the development of surface low pressure but also sling-shot it eastward more quickly than is shown by the operational versions of the ICON, GFS, GDPS.

    If the ECMWF is consistent, its op run would show a weaker and more progressive solution.

    That said, still paying more attention to ensembles and their trends for now. Doesn’t mean I don’t make note of the op runs. Don’t get me wrong and think I don’t even look at them. They are a “member” of the bigger picture as well, but just one member.

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  47. Extremely hazy/foggy looking out of the 15th floor windows here in Hartford today.

    Temps are going to underperform here today vs some forecasts I saw (not TK’s). Still only in the mid 30’s!

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  49. I’m rooting HARD for Sun/Mon storm to not impact the region. Can’t handle an extended school vacation coupled with a snow day resulting in school going into the week after Juneteenth

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  50. This is why I pay little attention to storm threats that appear on ops 1-2 weeks out. They mean very little. No blockbuster is hitting us early next week. It’s a near certainty in my opinion. Talk to me on Friday. If the ensembles paint a different picture, they will then have my attention.

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    1. Everyone here understands. For reasons I mentioned yesterday, imo it’s a huge part of whw to follow and learn from the models.

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    Reply

  52. Hmmmm I just looked at 5 models. All but the RRFSA took a dive to the South with NO SNOW in Boston, but the RRFSA still delivers an inch. inch and half or so. Interesting. Seems I had heard something like that before around here.

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  53. It’s been a very dark, gloomy afternoon like the skies want to open up at any minute with a downpour of snow or rain. Nothing has fallen since early this morning as a few minutes of light snow.

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  55. Down here near TF Greene in Warwick snow depths are about 8-10 inches in the sun still around 12-14 in the shade. In the past in my 70 years it always seems at this time on the calendar when some of us have had it with the snow ❄️ on the ground, I’ve seen in the past when the snow is just about gone then we get slammed! We are approaching March sun angle will be 40 degrees in elevation soon then the muddy lawns.

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      1. hmmm, most interesting. Now it looks like it was just taking longer to get going. 500mb is pulling it back towards the coast and now intensifying. Hmmm

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            2. That’s an absolute monster…965 mb!! Not a direct hit but still a raging blizzard for eastern MA.

              Look at the snow shadow it produces in the CT River Valley given those strong east winds north of the storm center.

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                1. Definitely still a BIG hit, but different than the 12Z run. Wonder what the 0Z run will show.

                  It’s pretty cool watching all of these runs.

                  I’d still feel better if the EURO were on board.

                  We’ll see what the 18Z run looks like.

  57. Not that I really care much with the sfc pressure for the late weekend storm is on the op run of 18z GFS, but the fact that it’s as intense as it is just tells me the model bias is in full force there.

    Eventually that will correct weaker, faster, and a little further south.

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      1. Weaker and further SE does not necessarily mean “miss”. A sideswipe is very much on the table and perhaps the higher probability solution right now vs a dead on hit or complete miss.

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