Thursday February 19 2026 Forecast (8:51AM)

107 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

The busy pattern rolls on but we get a break today with a small area of high pressure providing fair weather. We then enter an unsettled stretch from Friday until early Monday when we are impacted by two separate weather systems associated with a generally west-to-east boundary between Canadian cold and lingering Pacific air over much of the eastern US. The next low pressure waves comes at the Northeast via the Ohio Valley on Friday, with the boundary being pulled northward by the low, but running into the influence of high pressure in eastern Canada. This will force a halt to the front and a redevelopment of low pressure to the southeast of New England which will then move away from the region Saturday. Elongated low pressure – the remains of the original low, will still be over the region on Saturday. The sequence of precipitation with this system will be a large area arriving from southwest to northeast from late morning to early afternoon Friday, at which time we’ll also see an intrusion of warmer air aloft. The magnitude of the latter will help determine where it snows and where sleet and rain takes place. Latest trends on short range guidance is a little milder for this portion of the event. As the redeveloped low takes over to the southeast and starts to move away, colder air does shift back south at the same time the precipitation shield is becoming more broken up, so we see a transition to occasional mix to snow and eventually just snow showers as we head into Saturday – this tapering off by later afternoon or evening. Snowfall accumulation potential is greatest over interior and higher elevation locations with this system. My expectations are for a coating to 1 inch generally south of I-90, closer to 1 inch or just over that in higher elevations of south central MA, northwestern RI, and northeastern CT, and a general 1 to 3 inches elsewhere but a 3 to 5 inch potential over higher elevations of north central MA into interior southern NH, where are areas that can snow for the longest amount of time with the least amount of mix / rain involved. And then attention shifts to the next low pressure development which will take place along the southern Mid Atlantic Coast on Sunday. I continue to lean toward a slightly faster and slower-developing low that tracks pretty far offshore to the southeast of New England by early Monday. If this is indeed how it plays out, the best chance of steadier snow and certainly stronger wind would be over Cape Cod / far southeastern areas while lighter snowfall takes place to the north and west between Sunday afternoon and early Monday. Regardless of track, the storm will be intensifying and pulling away later Monday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow tapering to snow showers. Lows 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Afternoon snow develops, favoring southeastern areas / Cape Cod. Highs 30-37. Lows 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Clouds break for sun. A few snow showers possible favoring eastern areas. Highs 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH far eastern areas, with higher gusts, diminishing late.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Watching for additional unsettled weather in the February 25-27 time frame. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Another threat of wintry weather exists around the start of March with fair weather following.

107 thoughts on “Thursday February 19 2026 Forecast (8:51AM)”

  2. Good morning and than you TK.

    36 here after low of 32. Luckily things dried out before
    any black ice formed

    Ocean: 37

    Wordle: 3

    Reply

  6. Thanks, TK.

    The Cape has had fairly significant snowfall this winter. I know we usually don’t compare, say, Hyannis or Eastham totals to Boston. But when all is said and done this winter could Hyannis or Eastham come out on top?

    Reply

    1. No SNOW here, that’s for sure.

      I wonder IF any location received measurable snow yesterday.
      Some red faces on TV mets.

      Reply

  9. After my children essentially forced me to become a late adopter, I have a smartphone. But since I am rather dumb with technology, in some ways it’s still kind of a dumbphone. However smart the technology, if the human operating it is dumb the technology’s intelligence diminishes proportionate to the lack of human brain power (at least regarding gadgets and technology).

    In any case, why does the temperature that’s posted on my phone differ from the one on my laptop? The difference is several degrees and sometimes more. And this is after I refresh both the phone and computer.

    Reply

  14. Vicki, I don’t know which app. It’s just the temperature that appears on the phone screen and at the bottom of the laptop screen. I didn’t program it (wouldn’t know how to anyway). Right now, computer says 35F; phone says 38F. They’re almost never the same.

    Reply

    1. JPD above said it depends on the location of each. I honestly don’t pay attention to phone apps. You can add this link to you Home Screen. There are two nws sensors near me. They rarely have the same temp.

      https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?&zoom=10&scroll_zoom=false&center=42.65264691734741,-71.29028320312501&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=layers&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,wind,gust&temp_filter=-80,130&gust_filter=0,150&rh_filter=0,100&elev_filter=-300,14000&precip_filter=0.01,30&obs_popup=false&obs_density=10&obs_provider=ALL

      Reply

        1. Not yet, but that tech person is currently enroute to Baltimore MD for the next 5 days. He did tell me about a set of updates we need to do which can get done after he returns. 🙂

          Reply

  15. I had accidentally erased this from the discussion portion of the update today, where I put the accumulation expectation from the Friday event in…

    My expectations are for a coating to 1 inch generally south of I-90, closer to 1 inch or just over that in higher elevations of south central MA, northwestern RI, and northeastern CT, and a general 1 to 3 inches elsewhere but a 3 to 5 inch potential over higher elevations of north central MA into interior southern NH, where are areas that can snow for the longest amount of time with the least amount of mix / rain involved.

    Reply

    1. I’m unsure of where this area is. I would think it means my area but I’m unclear about what higher elevations Mean. Sutton highest point is 886 with an average elevation of 561

      “ My expectations are for a coating to 1 inch generally south of I-90, closer to 1 inch or just over that in higher elevations of south central MA, northwestern RI, and northeastern CT…”

      Thank you, sir, for another WHW learning lesson

      Reply

  16. Thanks TK.

    We had 0.4″ rain in Coventry yesterday and no snow. Still have a solid snowpack though and no bare patches.

    6z Euro EPS and GFS ensembles still seem to be in good agreement on an off shore track for Sun/Mon. Odds are pretty low for greater than 0.5″ QPF most places outside of the Cape and Islands….

    6z EPS Probabilities of greater than 0.5″ QPF:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_02/image.thumb.png.f4e548deb85ebaee3118f4878aa22b6b.png

    6z GEFS Probabilities:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_02/image.thumb.png.27fef0a1114ff34348c559a7144e8815.png

    Reply

  19. While I understand that it’s been in the teens in early April during a snowstorm, I think a little of yesterday’s milder performance was the beginning of the seasonal change.

    Just a little stronger sun angle hitting every day and when the northern jet has retreated with the Arctic air, which can still overwhelm ….. but with that gone, then the slow seasonal change can start to be seen coming out of mid February when a marginal airmass is in play. The models the last 24-36 hrs were in catchup mode to how relatively mild yesterday was going to be and I wonder if that is and will continue to play out for tomorrow.

    Reply

    1. Definitely transitioned to the “late winter” mode now.

      Things like teens in April and a major snowfall to go along with it are quite the anomaly. 😉

      Reply

  28. 12Z GFS did move a bit SE.

    48 hour qpf

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026021912&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=qpf_048h-imp&m=gfs

    6Z 48 qpf same time period

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026021906&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=qpf_048h-imp&m=gfs

    Qpf and snow amounts down “about” 20% from 6Z. Still a significant snow event as depicted.

    It doesn’t have a 48 hour snow, only 24 and that doesn’t do it justice, So here is the total kuchera snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026021912&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    For Boston subtract “about” 4 inches or so to remove Fri-Sat snow from the total. Still “about” 11 inches for Boston and MORE SE,

    Reply

    1. Hopefully once the snowmelt gets into the ground between mild temperatures and rain events, that map will be cleaned up.

      Reply

  37. Palisades Tahoe reporting 97″ (!) new snow with the still ongoing California storm and another 10-15″ expected throughout the day.

    Utah getting into the action as well with 46″ in the last 48 hours at Snowbird. This is great news as we are heading out there for 4 days in mid March. Much needed both for the ski areas and water tables.

    Reply

        1. May be opportunity but also may not pan out , just look at Boston chances for this week see ya !! That one big 2’ storm was definitely fun . We had a really good winter on the south shore & probably received more snow than Boston all compared .

          Reply

    1. At least a foot and Still no bare spots on flat surfaces. Hill behind house has many. All areas in full sun except my deck which is perfect for summer

      Reply

  47. And here comes the GFS. Has It been reading? We shall see.
    If it reads like donald dump, then perhaps it got the memo, but didn’t understand it. 🙂

    Reply

  49. Is part of the problem with model divergence for Sunday/Monday a reflection of the fact that tomorrow’s much smaller storm could have an impact on how things unfold afterwards?

    By the way, it would NOT surprise me at all if Boston gets zilch in terms of snow this week, despite three snow `threats.’ I don’t even think there will be a coating tomorrow night into Saturday. It’s too mild, also at the surface. Different story in the Berkshires and other parts of the state.

    Reply

    1. I don’t think so as I appears tomorrow’s system gets out of the way in time. More slower process for 500mb to amplify? And perhaps so e other issues.

      Reply

  51. Thanks TK.

    This is a highly contrarian opinion, but I’m seeing some indications in the upper air pattern that the chances of a big I-95 corridor snowstorm Sunday-Monday are trending up. Even some of the models that trended east or stayed the same had some subtle but important changes that could favor a farther northwest, higher impact track. Most importantly, holding more energy back for longer over the Ohio Valley and opening up more of a gap between systems…

    Also, take note of where the bullseye is on the GFS. Even *if* a big event happens, SNE probably won’t be the jackpot, but could certainly still cash in pretty nicely.

    Definitely not something I’d deterministically commit to in a forecast by any means, but this remains far from an OTS write-off…

    Reply

  52. Thanks WX – this feels like it has been a strange winter with some of the model divergence or maybe the social media hypers just amplify it more.

    Reply

    1. Don’t get me started when it comes to social media, but in terms of the models, I think it depends. Have they been “worse than normal”? I don’t really know. They pegged the big storm a couple weeks ago from several days out. And were also pretty decent on showing the massive coastal storm that followed days later staying mostly out to sea. But they’ve been atrocious on a couple of smaller events recently and are definitely struggling with this Sunday-Monday storm. All in all, kind of par for the course IMO but still interesting. And when there have been struggles, it’s been both the traditional and AI. I don’t think there’s been a single event where the two camps have been vastly different, and been consistent, and where one has nailed it over the other.

      One hill I’ll die on though: the deterministic ECMWF has gone to garbage. I don’t care if its global 500mb skill scores are a hair better. That model used to have a real knack for accurately forecasting potential high impact events in the medium to long range, and that has completely gone away. Total shame.

      Reply

  53. Nice to hear from you as always WxWatcher.
    Very interesting discussion and thank you.

    Boy was it ever snowing hard at Moutain High in Wrightwood.
    I’ll bet you will have totally AWESOME photo ops in the next few days!!!!!

    Cheers

    PS I keep watching these systems until there is no hope at all.
    Would like to see MORE than one model showing a hit.
    Hey, there’s always the 18Z EURO coming up soon. I’d like to see it move NW, but I am SURE it will stay the course LOW AND OUTSIDE.

    Reply

    1. I’ll share if I get any good pics the next few days! I’m hoping to. Probably still a lot of orographic cloud cover tomorrow but should have great opportunities by this weekend, the views will be awesome for sure!

      Reply

      1. Look forward to that. Thank you!!!

        When I lived in Millis, we used to drive over to the backside of Lake Pearl and park off of rt. 140 and have a nice swim for ourselves for free. 🙂 🙂

        When I was finishing up a Northeastern, I lived in Bellingham and I would drive home via rt.1 to Rt. 140 through Wrentham to Bellingham. I hated that long drive. Luckily it was only for a year or 2. 🙂

        Reply

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