DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
The low pressure system that’s been impacting our weather since yesterday lingers today as some additional snow shower activity continues with an elongated area of low pressure stretching across the region. While this system has produced up to a few inches of snow – not a heavy snowfall accumulation – it has been a sticky and wet snow for many areas, a bit harder to clear than many of our events this winter. But it does come to an end today as slightly drier air arrives on the back side of departing low pressure. However we get little time to breathe as the next storm system organizes off the Mid Atlantic Coast Sunday then intensifies and tracks northeastward, passing southeast of New England Sunday night and early Monday. This will be a higher-impact system with snow and wind, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding issues around high tide times. The question still to be answered is snowfall amounts, with guidance ranging from the classic hit and maximum snow potential to a a track a little further offshore with the heaviest snowfall further southeast and less to the northwest. I favor the latter by a slight margin, but with the storm close enough to produce a significant accumulation throughout the region. Initial accumulation forecast (most of this falling from late Sunday evening until midday Monday): Greater than 4 inches regionwide, greater than 8 inches I-95 belt, and greater than 12 inches southeastern MA and RI. I’ll be refining this in comments below and with the Sunday morning update. The storm moves away late Monday with fair weather returning and continuing into the middle of next week.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow showers this morning. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow, heaviest I-95 belt eastward and I-90 belt southward. Lows 24-31. Wind NE increasing to 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Overcast with snow, heaviest I-95 belt eastward and I-90 belt southward during the morning, tapering off in the afternoon with breaking clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind 15-35 MPH, strongest coast, gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest higher elevations and coast.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)
Watching for two separate systems bringing unsettled weather, the first in the February 26-27 time frame, the second in the March 1-2 time frame. Temperatures near to below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)
Fair weather early period, unsettled weather returns later in the period as the active pattern continues. Temperatures near to below normal.
Fun day of tracking 12z and 18z!!!
Posted this on the other blog to JP
Blizzard watches are no longer issued I brought that up yesterday. They just go to WSW or blizzard warning. Based on that 6 Z euro they be hoisted here shortly.
Thank you TK. My north shore WAG forecast is 6-10.”
Good morning and thank you TK.
Interesting times ahead.
Your thoughts on the RRFSA back off? Curious to hear what you think about that. I want to be all in on this system, but that little bugger is haunting me. If it were a trash model, I’d dismiss it, but it has performed pretty well. Not perfect, but pretty damn well. it is new and therefore it is very possible it is onto
to something the other models have not picked up.
Of course, it could simply be a classic OUTLIER???
Who knows for sure.
We don’t have enough case studies to really know yet. Only a couple this winter. It’s done well so far.
But they have also frozen improvements to this version and started a redeveloped version running in parallel. So far it looks the same.
Thank you.
Thanks TK.
TK – Any chance for some very brief clearing Sunday morning for a quick “red” sunrise?
Yes, that is possible.
Re-post of NWS map.
NWS map within the last hour.
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
The NWS czar must have given them an exception on having to directly use the NBM which has 18 to 30 inches everywhere (in the world, basically) from its most recently run blend (07z). 😉
Watching the CH 7 snow map again. Their totals are gi-normous.
Looking at the map, it’s just the NAM snowfall map, 10:1 version. 😉
Please post. 🙂
Coastal Flood Watch
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BOX&wwa=coastal%20flood%20watch
Scheduled to land 8pm Sunday @ Logan from St Marteen. Do I have a chance to sneak in?
Unless the airports do something a little crazy, yes you do have a shot!
Thanks TK
I am going to have a lot of company at the grocery store today.
First Blizzard Warnings issued for the CT shoreline in just over 4 years. IF this storm hits the way the guidance is showing will be above normal snowfall for the season.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 6
It wasn’t that hard of a word and I couldn’t see it earlier.
Once again, great job with your forecasting. You were encouraging everyone to pay attention to what was going on last night. We woke up to a text from our daughter in marshfield about 11pm saying how bad the roads were. Thankfully, she said that her and her friends made it home safely.
At times, it was really coming down.
Looks like a good 2 inches on the ground here. 🙂
Nice. We have a coating on the cars here in Eastham.
It was all rain around dinner time last night, but it really wasn’t melting the existing snow cover, which, like at home, there is plenty of.
6, eh? Haven’t played yet. I’ll probably join you in the caboose. 🙂
I predict anywhere from the 2-5 car for you, you’ll do great !
HA Still don’t have it after 4 guesses. Thought I had it at guess 2,3 and 4. ALL Fine legit words, BUT not to Wordle’s liking. Putting it a aside for a bit and I will come back to it.
NOTHING comes to mind, except a few words it can’t be because the letters have been tried and are NOT in the correct word. YIKES!!!!
Just for the hell of it, Here is a surface/precip map from the 6Z GFS. Ya think it might be snowing hard????
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026022106&fh=54&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs
From Bernie Rayno
I do not believe there will be any shifting east of the modeling. The storm track is LOCKED IN.
Ought oh! The kiss of death. LOCKED in HE SAYS! 🙂 🙂 🙂
Never use that phrase, Bernie. Never. 😉
I was thinking that. It is like announcer jinx when they say has not missed a field goal inside 30 yards all season and the kicker misses the kick.
Thanks, TK.
Except for the sun `rising’ and `setting’ every day (and even that I sometimes worry about not happening at some point), nothing is “locked in,” including the storm tomorrow/Monday. Life, including the weather, is full of unexpected events, twists, and turns. At least that’s been my experience. This certainly makes it interesting.
Thank you, TK. We are 32 up a degree from our low. 1.12 inches of yuk measured around midnight here.
My biggest hope is the RRFS A and for a more low end moderate event.
My biggest concern is I haven’t seen any real backing down of simulated pressures down to the low 970s when the system is at its crunch time location. If it ends up near the benchmark, I worry what will happen to towns on the south shore, cape and islands.
I think they broke something on the RRFS, Version 2, which I am watching in parallel. It keeps the northern edge almost stationary, even more than the first version of the model (06z run through 46 hours at the moment).
Ok 🙂
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 5
Very nice Sue.
Nice!
Wordle 4.
Had first and last letters and the word oddly popped into my head It’s fascinating when that happens. I like to think my angels are playing too
Excellent. So far you’re the engineer.
Way to go Sue and extra way to go, Vicki !
Thank you. I don’t engineer. Please come join me everyone
I can join you in 4
Not that it’s correct, the 12z HRRR has gone from 1,008 mb at 22 hrs to 981 mb at 40hrs. Thats a 27 mb drop in 18 hrs and it’s still intensifying the system on its simulation.
Now down to 974 mb !!!!
Yup
Please say noooooo for March 1-2. My minor hand surgery was already postponed from the big storm. It’s now scheduled March 3
Agree! I have to fly on March 2.
Oh nooo. Fingers crossed
Channel 7
Yesterday: https://imgur.com/a/EbdpabH
Today: https://imgur.com/a/hv6kD3q
Wow!!
JR is not holding back, is he?
Yikes
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sim_ir&rh=2026022112&fh=44&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
12z HRRR, again, not that it’s correct.
Simulated radar. This system, a direct hit, would be no joke.
Sorry, simulated satellite.
Fierce.
That look.
Satellite
HRRR now down to 972 mb and still falling
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026022112&fh=46&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026022112&fh=46&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I hope this simulation is as ‘out there’ as the last couple RRFS A simulations.
It does speak to model disparity.
Indeed !!
12z HRRR at hour 48
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Snow amounts to that point with more snow to come
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=500wh&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=700wh&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The 12z HRRR run, not necessarily correct, is your text book, perfectly vertically aligned low pressure, ferocious 700 and 850 mb lows. Fairly slow moving. Corresponding explosive sfc low development. Strongest case scenario. Worst or best possible track, depending on what one is hoping for.
Not for nothing, but the HRRR is depicting a ratio of “about” 7:1.
Compare qpf with the model ratio snow amount.
At hour 48, 0.76 inch qpf Boston, Model snow 5 inches.
Actually, that is a ratio of 6.57 to 1. Seem AWFULLY LOW TO ME.
That would be PASTE city and a DISASTER!!!
Shows temp around 31 at Boston.
I HOPE this is WRONG!!!
At 48 hours.
qpf
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Model ratio snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
10:1 snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z HRRR at 48 hours
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
RAGING BLIZZARD!!!!!
The snow figures to be heavier and wetter than last storm so thinking the QPF ratios would be lower.
Thank you, TK.
3.5 inches of snow overnight up here in North Reading, not too shabby…..really interested to see how Sun/Mon evolves, this winter has not disappointed
I was trying to explain to my wife, hopefully correctly last night, that the vast majority of times, in big storms, you get the models most intense version about 72 hrs out and then they slowly back down to still a strong system, but not the absolute vicious storm they had 72 hrs before. I told her this also happens with severe wx, coming cold snaps and heat waves.
BUT, I also told her there is that 1% of the time where from 72 hrs in, they don’t back down and sometimes even show a slightly deeper pressure as you get closer.
And at least on pressure simulations, it feels a lot closer to that rare, 1% outcome of building up to something epic as opposed to hacking down to something that is strong. For intensity, not necessarily track.
Wordle: 5
Finally saw it.
Good ! 🙂
18 hr pressure drop on 12z NAM is 31 mb in 18 hrs. 1008 mb down to 977 mb and still intensifying.
Yup. I guess we could call it a Bomb.
At 42 hours NAM is 4mb lower pressure than same period on 6z run.
At 45 hours’ down to 968 mb.
A drop of 9mb in 3 hours
Ok’ I think the NAM is over doing this. At 48 hours’ down ton965mb!!!! That’s lime a hurricane!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
So now we have it completely nailed! It’s somewhere between whimpdom (RRFSA) and bombogenesis on steroids (NAM).
12z NAM replicating 12z HRRR with a perfectly, vertically stacked low at all levels of the atmosphere.
It is lifting the ferocious 850 mb jet right up and overhead southern New England.
If these 2 simulations verify, this is an event we’ll talk about like we talk about Nemo in marshfield from, I think it was 2014.
And we talk about it for the wind and tree damaged in spite of the fact that the snowfall was epic too. But the town was 90% out of power when the storm ended and it took 4 days to start making headway on power and 7 for everyone to get it back.
You just don’t escape a 970 mb ish storm slowly tracking along the benchmark without major problems.
I need to report my score before the Wordle Board is overrun with incidental discussions of a potential upcoming weather event. This seems to be happening fairly often this winter. 🙂
5
Welcome to the 5 car. Just too many possible words today.
It is officially a party in the 5 car!
Great job to all of the Wordlers.
Nice SClarke !
Well, let’s hope the RRFS A, currently running, offers some hope still of something less intense.
I’m game for 4-8, 6-10 and wind gusts to 35, maybe 40.
I’m not game for hrs on end of heavy, wet snow overlapped with wind gusts upwards of 60-65 mph.
Rrfsa looks to still be backing off unless it changes with additional panels.
It did, but not anymore.
Against only itself, the 12z looks more impactful in the last couple of frames.
12z NAM total kuxhera snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Wordle 4
Great!!!
Thank you TK!
Wordle – Phew
Welcome to the whew car 🙂
RRFS A won’t match what the HRRR and NAM spit out, BUT when you only compare it to itself against its previous 06z and 00z runs, the exploding low is holding back much more to the west and the snow and wind impacts are further north.
My guess is further RRFS A runs will continue to edge north closer to the majority of the other models.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=sim_ir&rh=2026022112&fh=46&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I’m really worried now with this latest RRFS A run and with a simulated satellite like this.
This looks really bad.
Thinking a lot of snow tom for us
Yeah, but I’m really focused on the winds and what that will do to pasty, weighted down trees over an 8-12 hr period of really strong wind gusts.
Yes, that it’s snow is important because if it rained, that helps having less weight on the trees. So, I only care that our trees are going to be caked with snow and very susceptible to strong wind gusts.
It still has plenty of time to change course
Well, yes, but not too much more and the model that offered us some hope went closer to the big impact models, so …..
Thanks TK.
We are skiing at Le Massif in Quebec today, it’s sunny here and the views of the St Lawrence Seaway are spectacular.
No idea how we are going to get back Monday and I shutter to think what I am going to come back to!
Sorry you are missing this storm Mark – you have been “rooting” for this one most of the week
Last couple runs of the GFS crush us with another Nor’easter next Friday…
I guess the one hope left is the RRFS A coming north to this track will be the track and the other models will retreat to it.
But I have a feeling the RRFS A will continue to come north and with the intensity we’re seeing, I think it’s going to be a while for recovery near the coast SE of Boston.
RRFSA is BACK ON BOARD!!!!
Total Snow map coming
966 mb!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026022112&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I’m depressed !
We had to move into my dad’s place for 3 days (that’s not depressing) and we were without power for 4 days. Our neighborhood was one of the first being across from the police station. Some parts of town were 7 days. Eversource killed themselves it took that long because all the towns surrounding us were equally hit badly. This was Nemo, 2014, so that’s why I’m so discouraged.
Tom hang in there it’s not locked & loaded yet with over 24 hours of more runs to go
RRFSA total snowfall, model ratio
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
total qpf
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z RDPS gets to 964 MB !!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
total Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Pete just posted on Facebook calling this the Blizzard of 26
With his map showing south shore 18+ highest on the map
12Z ICON to 968 MB
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026022112&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I shudder to think what the GFS will come show for snow totals
These satellite simulations are what’s also making the scale of this apparent to me.
Obviously a cold core system, but the satellite simulations have that perfect curvature north of the low and then a look of an eye at its center.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=sim_ir&rh=2026022112&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Scary. Look at wind maps I posted. VERY NOTICABLE there.
This thing almost looks like a hurricane!!!
From Instant Weather Maps, NAM Wind Gusts in MPH
https://ibb.co/84mkvPDH
I saw a bit of brightness earlier, maybe about 30 seconds worth.
12Z NAM HI_RES surface winds gusts in KNOTS
https://ibb.co/Z6mqBF7G
remember 1 knot = 1.15078 mph
so 50 knots = 57.5 mph
60 knots = 69.04 mph
Someone mention Pete Bouchard? Here it is
https://ibb.co/ynRQGy3D
Thanks JPD. JR mentioned thundersnow yesterday as well. I hope I get to see it. It would be my first since moving here.
Boston (Logan) received 1.8” from yesterday’s minor event bringing the seasonal total to 43.3”.
Boston seasonal normal = 49.2” ❄️
Thank you Philip.
12Z HRRR surface gusts (10M) in Knots
https://ibb.co/wZPxQ9k9
New NWS snow map
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/WxStory/WeatherStory4.png
Pretty strongly worded statements!!!
Snowfall forecasts AND infographics from around the dial:
https://ibb.co/5W6SZ05s
https://ibb.co/VWC1DGb4
Thanks Doc. Pretty impressive.
FYI, I found this at the watches and warning site
https://www.weather.gov/box/
Click on Boston and scroll down for this
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/WxStory/WeatherStory4.png
Thank you, sir!!
12Z GFS for 7AM Monday, a mere snow flurry. 🙂 🙂 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026022112&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs
The thing that really has me discouraged is we haven’t had 1 model run yet, where it’s a hit, BUT the low only bottomed out at 978 or 980 mb
NOPE, either side of 970 mb and we are close enough where usually the models ease up a bit on the low’s pressure. Just not happening right now.
Nope, If anything they are deepening a bit more.
12Z GFS total Kuchera Snow.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z GFS AI qpf
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Ok…for real. You all had me spooked on wordle. I played a less frequently used starter and got second and last correct with no misses. Went to the other vowels and got it in 2. I’m smiling until lunch!
Thanks for the great posts on the weather. Can I ask a timing question? We have a school group in Philly. When do things deteriorate there?
2 is other worldly! Great Job!!!
Awesome 2
Nice write-up by the Norton NWS office
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=CI&glossary=1&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&site=NWS&version=1
12Z GDPS Kuchera snow, actually down a tad from 0Z
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026022112&fh=78&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gdps
12Z HRW FV3 total Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z HRW FV3 wind gusts (MPH)
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=sfcgust-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=53&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Will tomorrow morning’s Gold medal game (8:10 am ET) be broadcast on NBC?
I am unable to receive USA or Peacock. Thanks.
Yes
Thanks TK! 🙂
12Z UKMET 10:1 snow, down a tad from 6Z and 0Z runs
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026022112&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ukmo_global
Is this the downward start . Not to be a party pooper as I want the Blizzard but I’m not letting my guard down as I’ll be very disappointed. Of course I don’t want the wind part of it & any flooding , but definitely want 18+ of snow . I can’t remember having an entire winter down here & it’s been snow cover for most of it . We had some decent snow here overnight that brought out plows & everyone is snow blowing, we have really overachieved down here with these storms, and a good amount of ice / sleet yesterday late afternoon . Something about being in the jackpot zone really excites me & always has since being a kid growing up
Probably Nemo winter in regards to snow cover
6Z EURO emsemble members
https://ibb.co/Hfp1pRFM
Guy I’m chatting with on my storm chasers page says 0% chance for a fizzle and prepare for a full Blizzard here !!!!
Please state the site if possible.
I did Sue last night !!! New England storm chasers it’s a group that Tk is in.
Sorry, there were a lot of posts last night so please forgive me. I read that one also but didn’t see the comment you just mentioned that was made by the admin.
I asked Borris & he responded , take care
Again, I can’t see anything you posted so that’s the only reason I asked. I figured it might be Boris’s posts.
Thanks, TK and everyone here who does such a great job with updates and info!
Storm prep is about done. Grocery shopping early this morning. Started up the snowblower and generator.
Winter storm warning just popped up here
Blizzard warnings now
Not here yet. It’s why I said for here. What area is blizzard warning for
Just got a message from my radar app on my phone. It said blizzard warning for Suffolk County. I don’t see it yet on my
watches and warnings page.
I don’t see it here. It literally just popped up on wunder for Boston and Pembroke. Only two I checked.
It’s posted below
Here it is:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BOX&wwa=blizzard%20warning
Indeed it is I just received . When is the last time we received a Blizzard warning!
I am not 100% sure, SSK, but I think it may have been the January 28-29, 2022 storm, more than four years ago.
It was 4 years ago, and a blizzard warning in this area is seen on average a few times in any given decade.
Important to remind people, “blizzard” has nothing to do with snowfall accumulation.
…BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY…
* WHAT…Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
between 1 and 2 feet. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.
* WHERE…Portions of eastern, northeastern, and southeastern
Massachusetts and northern and southern Rhode Island. This
includes Boston to Providence corridor.
* WHEN…From 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS…Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
blowing snow. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs
may down power lines and could cause power outages. Whiteout
conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and
potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very difficult to
impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday
morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with
your vehicle.
Flurries here for the last 1/2 hour.
Here as well.
12Z Euro AI stays the course
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026022112&fh=54&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
10:1 snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Upon closer examination, the snow shield shifted ever so slightly to the East.
12Z EURO 10:1 snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026022112&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Everything looks on track for the second major snowstorm for the winter of 25-26.
There’s quite a difference in the weather today across a boundary.
40s in all of CT. Western Mass is in the upper 30s, including Springfield.
And we’re on the other side of the boundary under 32F.
Tom low 40s here where I am and sun going in and out.
The calm before the storm. I got out of the grocery store before it started to get packed around noon.
Glad you were able to get that done before the rush.
Enjoy that 40F !
Note:
If the surface low being better positioned with its upper support can deepen more rapidly, we have to watch for the development of banding features which does not only include heavy bands, but includes drier slots. This can make for interesting variations from one area to the next.
Cool and noted.
So this would explain when Hadi reports 30” and JPDave reports 18” only a few miles away
That has never happened. We’ve ben. Off ny a couple inches’ but that ia bout it.
Ahhh yes the dreaded dry slot!! I was waiting for this point to be raised
Continued model agreement on a cold Tuesday and a very cold Tuesday night, should power loss become an issue.
Thsts the one thing after Nemo back in 2014, it was cool to chilly afterwards, but more like high 20s at night and near 40F during the days. And our house still dropped to the mid 40s in interior hallways.
Tuesday looks struggling to 30F and then dropping to the teens tuesday night.
It’s fun model watching but I’m hoping the east coast of Massachusetts is spared an possible destruction from consecutive high tides.
I’m here in RI. The only issues would be power and cable outages. The complex I live the electric and cable and internet are underground. Even with underground utilities still no guarantees.
Minor to moderate coastal issues.
Son and family are in RI also. He has a generator we no longer use
29F. Will not make it to 32F today.
RRFS-A, version 2 is running now. I’m curious now that the version 1 has shifted to a heavier snowfall / closer track, if version 2 will do the same thing.
Good question. Was there a problem with the early V1 run today?
The forecasted amounts looked abnormally low relative to other models.
It was like that through 06z then changed at 12z.
I saw that but was wondering if the 6Z run had a problem.
Flakes stopped falling and a little bit of sun now.
Schools are already starting to close .
I bet Tuesday will be a snow day as well.
Gross
I am sure I hoped/hope for snow days as much as my kids and now grandkids. One of the joys of Kids and honesty a gift for me as a parent too
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sim_ir&rh=2026022118&fh=43&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026022118&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026022118&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
All I can say is that I hope the HRRR solution doesn’t verify.
It has a track that is quite close, perhaps even destined to go inside of the benchmark.
Very intense solution which would yield an extremely high wind event solution to maybe even some places further north and west than are used to seeing.
No, not implying Fitchburg, but maybe Boston’s western suburbs. Ie not just confined to hull points southeastward all the way to cape cod.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2026022118&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Completely cold core system, look at that radar simulation.
These radar and satellite simulations continue to impress/worry the heck out of me. Pressures common to a cat 2 hurricane.
I guess the only saving grace is the pressure to our north is 1015 mb, if there were ever a 1030 mb high up there ……..
Hoping that some of the intensity backs off!
18z HRRR snowfall and still continuing
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026022118&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
In grocery stor check out line. Not too bad biut I had to wait for 3 people in front of me. Getting busier almost lining up down the aisles now. Phew
Dodged a bi
Bullet finishing up in front of me now.
Good 🙂
Tomorrow AM shopping will be a nightmare.
Just came back from shopping too. Business as usual. Chatter from the general public are saying this came out of nowhere. A couple days ago was a few inches on the outer Cape, now full blown blizzard.
Hmmmm. Folks in this area have been watching it for a bit.
I ordered Instacart. I’m looking for a specific plant based butter that my granddaughter can tolerate so had to order from Roche bros westboro. It took shopper forever.
Alright, thru 24 hrs on the 18z RRFS A, let’s see what that simulates.
Thank goodness, the RRFS A simulation looks like it’s 12z, a little further south than most other models.
Don’t worry, still snow gets in here, but I’ll continue to hope for this. This is a day maybe 2 cancellation and then we get can back to things functioning daily.
The HRRR and some other stuff brings normal life to a halt longer next week.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=refcmp&rh=2026022118&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
RRFS A showing multiple banding nicely.
Down to 965 mb !!!!!!!!
I don’t know. Still a big outcome difference.
RRFS A is a big snow with decent wind.
HRRR/Nams are major snows and major winds.
Also, wonder if all the models are struggling with the explosive development leading to a potential compactness of the system ……… so wonder if a possible outcome is a more compact northern precip shield which I think I’m seeing a hint or 2 of.
Onward …….
18z NAM
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026022118&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam
18z NAM 3km
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026022118&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Now the RRFS-A is starting to do what it was designed to do. Another nice test for this one.
BTW, the 5 models it’s replacing may only be 4 for a while. HRRR may stay online a bit longer.
In other delays, the Hampton Beach Casino Ballroom replacement project has been delayed 1 year. The final summer for the old wooden dinosaur was to be 2026. It will now be 2027.
Why the Delay
Not sure. I’m waiting for some info from a colleague.
I think it fell in the time frame of 6-9 yrs ago.
Right up to the event, I think it was the 00z models the night before, the models were showing 1-2 ft in southern New England. I’m thinking it was something of a similar setup.
Literally at hr 0, with the morning 12z runs, the models stopped the heavy bands of precip at the south coast.
All that rotated up was very light precip which fell as light rain into a marginal airmass.
The Mets, many of them apologized. I remember blogging on here, they shouldn’t have due to what the models were showing the night before on the 00z runs, only 12 hrs out.
And I have that in the back of my mind on this one, perhaps due to the more southern RRFS A and it’s much sharper northern precip shield. The NAM’s precip shield all the way to Canada is laughable, I believe.
But all it would take is a slightly less turn of the energy around this trof, to cause a stunning outcome. I don’t know that’s going to happen, but it’s not like there’s a big central Atlantic ridge.
So, this weather enthusiast feels very worried for the possibility of a complete clobber, a more likely moderate hit with moderate winds but also a last minute switch to something less. Confidence level for what happens < 50%.
Alright, my wife and I are headed out to a function with my dad.
Little confused by this , are you saying there is the possibility on the table of a miss . I’ve been lurking around other sites & it seems very unlikely from what I’ve asked .
No one is saying a miss.
Always right there waiting sue , I asked a question to my friend & don’t make more out of it .
A “miss” is off the table.
Yes that’s exactly what I thought , thanks Tk & hope you had a nice day
And exactly what Sue responded. Hoping your day gets better.
I had an awesome day thank you .
Nope, just answering your question since you were confused. No one had stated it was a miss. Sorry to try to help.
And please do not assume anything about me “making more out of it”. Trust me, I have better things to do in life than worry about your confusion. Was literally just trying to help.
The RRFS A is really giving me pause to jump on blizzard warnings and 12-18” snow and really high winds.
I guess I’m like JpDave and others who do better with consistency, especially on such a strong event.
You don’t have consistency on a 1,002 mb storm with a few inches of snow, ok, still a challenge to get it right, but when it’s a 970 mb storm with the wind potential, minor-mod coastal flooding potential and the snow potential, well, that’s a lot bigger range of outcomes, so, it’s a big decision on which way to go.
And as far as a miss, if the RRFS A s right on real snow south of the mass border, not much in northern New England and then the systems ends up 50 miles further south, we’ll suddenly, that’s a stunner that would only need 50 miles to happen if that RRFS A’s sharp northern cutoff is correct.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2026022118&fh=53&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Look at that cut off. Send that only 30-50 miles further south and …… that’s why I can’t completely 100% right it off.
Thanks Tom I get it now .
Wordle in 5… feels like I’m losing my mojo for it. lol
All the NWS informational maps in one graphic:
https://ibb.co/MDh863W5
This includes different timing and predictions.
Good job Doc & thanks for the maps .
I got this as the latest NWS map
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
Crowded 5 car today, but We’ll make room!! You are more than welcome!!!
Nice discussion Tom. I, too, am wondering if the whole thing becomes less than previously modeled. I get worried when the numbers come down. When we are really going to get hit, they tend to keep going up, We’re in reverse mode right now. We’ll see what the other models have to say.
I continue to watch. Have a meeting with work at 7PM tomorrow to discuss latest and whether to close the office or not.
I am decidedly not a fan of meteorologists tweeting stuff like this: https://ibb.co/B28tF8xd
lol
huh?
He followed up the tweet with:
“I expected quality gifs in response and you people did not disappoint. Thank you for your service.
(Wednesday is more nuisance variety but Friday could be beefier…let’s get past Monday first)“
I think the desire to get in on the foot traffic / views on social media sites is contagious and intoxicating to be honest.
TK said Now the RRFS-A is starting to do what it was designed to do. Another nice test for this one
Exactly what does this mean? Sort through all the crap and come up with what WILL REALLY HAPPEN. ie not a miss, but a bit more S&E and LESS SNOW. Is this what you mean? Or something else?
Curious. thanks
I was wondering the same. Thanks for asking!
Most stations are updating their maps. Here’s the latest from 25 for example: https://ibb.co/mFHpJJkK
Looks like an update for the better! 🙂
That’s a lot of snow
Enjoy the snow storm, meanwhile we are getting rain down here in australia. Its 2 days good a full week of November like weather
Looks like we are in the bullseye in Padanaram. I have waited for a storm like this since I moved here. One thing about living in Minnesota for 17 years (after I left Long Island) is they don’t get storms like this – although the one in Duluth last week on North shore was pretty close.
Tk looking at weatherbug it shows 34 here during the day on Monday , do you agree , figured it would have been a tad colder .
Ch 5 saying they just updated map 18-24 Boston through south shore
Oh my
Oh my is right . I actually saw a weather update on Facebook that I’ve never seen & was cool . I asked TK to post when he has time
Long duration event
YUCK! I am actually ready to see grass again.
Silver Lake school district just sent out the text for Monday’s closure.
Maybe Tuesday as well . I’m going to the store first thing in the morning but besides cold cuts I’m trying to figure out what other cold food I can get if we loose power
I already put an order in to pick up tomorrow and there will be lots of cereal cups and milk lol. Good thing my boys enjoy it.