Sunday February 22 2026 Forecast (7:43AM)

472 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

A cloudy but quiet Sunday ahead of a winter storm that will whack the region with snow and wind tonight and Monday as low pressure emerging off the Mid Atlantic Coast intensifies rapidly and passes southeast of New England. The closer to the coast you are the wetter the snow will be. A coastal front will separate temperatures closer to freezing from temperatures below freezing – the boundary being in the vicinity of I-95 during the storm. Wetter snow combined with strongest wind gusts in the coastal plain make chances of power outages much higher in these locations. Mildest air and wettest snow holds accumulations down somewhat over Cape Cod and the Islands. Areas just west of the coastal front can maximize accumulation due to enhancement of snowfall. We also have to watch for not only bands of heavier snowfall, but bands of drier air where snow can be less intense. Thundersnow is a low chance but is possible in some of the heavier snow bands. The peak of the storm will be during the 12 hours from midnight to noon Monday with a quick increase leading into it and a slow wind-down following it. The NWS has issued a blizzard warning from the NH Seacoast through coastal Essex County, Metro Boston, all of southeastern MA, and RI. These are the areas most likely to see blizzard criteria met – sustained winds or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater and visibility under 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours. Accumulation expectation is 10 to 18 inches for most areas with the most likely area failing to reach 10 being Cape Cod and the Islands and isolated greater-than-18 inch pockets a potential under any quasi-stationary bands of heaviest snow. Storm wind-down is complete by Monday night then we get a break with high pressure bringing fair weather Tuesday. The next low pressure system comes our way via the Great Lakes Wednesday with some snow/mix/rain. This one will not be a major event. Unsettled weather lingers into Thursday as well and the next storm system approaches by late Thursday from the Ohio Valley with another rain/mix/snow threat. More details on the midweek unsettled episodes in the next post.

TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives south to north, heavy at times late evening and overnight. Thunder possible near South Coast overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind NE increasing to 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times morning, including the chance of thunder. Snow tapering off west to east afternoon. Highs 27-34, coldest well inland, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, gusts 40-60 MPH, strongest along the coast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow likely. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain/mix/snow expected. Lows 26-33. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Clearing out February 27 based on current timing. Briefly dry weather, then next unsettled weather threat comes in the March 1-2 time frame. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

One or two additional unsettled weather threats as the active pattern continues in early March. Temperatures near to below normal.

472 thoughts on “Sunday February 22 2026 Forecast (7:43AM)”

    1. No letters on 1st guess, 1 in position on 2nd guess, BUT totally and completely LOST! Haven’t a clue. Setting it aside for a few. 🙂

      Reply

  8. TK, thanks for your sane approach to this storm. It is NOT 2/6/78. It is NOT 4/1/1997. It’s a strong storm. Probably a foot or so – as much as 15 inches – in Boston with bigger amounts just south of the city.

    Reply

    1. 60-80 MPH winds and 1-2 feet of snow is pretty big to me. Way over 15 inches in Boston. Nothing will compare to 78 and not sure anyone here is saying that.

      Reply

      2. It’s clearly a biggie for sure. It may not be tops in snow totals, but the damage it may inflict could be right up there. We shall see.

        Reply

  11. TWC calling it Hernando
    WFSB our CBS station in CT which has named winter storm since 1973 when most of the CT is expected to get 6 or more inches of snow or most of CT is expected to get 1/4 inch or greater ice accumulation. This year the theme is President’s names
    This storm is being called Blizzard Calvin. We had Abraham just after Christmas and Benjamin about a month ago.

    Reply

  26. I need to go EAT something, but I can’t force myself to leave my computer. My wife says I am OBSESSED!!! Guess I am, when it comes to big snows. 🙂

    Reply

  28. I appreciate your non hype approach to forecasting.however,I would like to point out that you tend to lump ”Cape Cod and the islands” together as if they were one homogenous area and as a weather reporter and observer of over 50 years I can tell you they are not.Nantucket is over 30 miles out to sea from my location and usually has very different snow totals from mainland Cape Cod with most snow scenarios.even Marthas Vineyard is usually quite different from Nantucket.this would be reflected in annual snowfall statistics,which can be hard to find for the island.but I always read your posts,find them interesting.

    Reply

    1. You are correct, and it’s easy to overlook all of that in the context of the “region”. Making note of it!

      Reply

    2. I put the #’s in the discussion section. 10-18 for you. 🙂
      Borderline wet. Not mashed potatoes, but definitely not the feather fluff we had in the previous big storm.

      Reply

  30. Thanks TK! I fully expect to lose power in Padanaram Village. Really interested to experience this wind although the results will stink when we lose power.

    Reply

  33. The “convection-allowing” higher res guidance is starting to show the banding features better now, not only including a couple of intense bands, but the in-between subsidence zones where the snow rates are much lower. The latter is why I left 10 as the lower limit.

    Reply

  34. I am thinking I’ll be on lower end because of proximity to the shore. On the other hand, I’ll get battered by wind.

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  35. Clarification…

    No, it’s not coming in “hotter” than expected, nor is it coming in faster than expected.

    The low pressure area has barely started to organize at this point. It takes place in the hours ahead of us and the greatest impact timing has been outlined in my discussion above.

    If I spy any changes to expectation, I’ll post it here in the comments section.

    (See the comment I made just before this one.)

    Reply

  37. Interesting how some of the giant snow totals are being “model-projected” with not enough precipitation to create such totals with the ratios in place.

    Not the first time I’ve seen that.

    Reply

    2. Cool.

      U.S. hockey has come a long way since 1980. I realize that the Miracle on Ice was in 1980. But overall, U.S. hockey today is better than it was then, at least that’s my opinion. There are a lot of really good American players now.

      Reply

  43. Wordle: 3 (anytime I cross out 8 or more letters in the first two guesses I know one or two “lesser” letters will be involved.)

    Re: Blizzard of 78 comparisons – call me crazy but I don’t think anything can compare to that in modern times in terms of impact because of how much forecasting and warning has improved as well as how good our snow removal abilities are.

    Reply

    2. The February 1978 storm was epic, as was April 1997. The former did a loop, as I recall, fairly close to the benchmark. It was nonstop wind howling for hours along with very heavy snow. April 1997 had some pretty good wind, too, along with incredible snowfall rates and thundersnow. Add to that, it was in April.

      Reply

  51. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2026022212&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=850wh&rh=2026022212&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Still feel some differences and relating it the NWS text above, if the HRRR location of the 850 mb jet verifies, then yes, if the RRFS A location verifies, then that area of concern is more for Plymouth and Cape Cod. It is an important 25-40 mile difference. Also has an effect on northern mass snowfall amts, I believe.

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  53. I am happy as a snow lover I am not in the CT River Valley. The shadow effect being picked up by some of the guidance.

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  55. Because of the RRFS A, I’m not a complete 100% lock on full fury.

    I’m at 85%.

    I allow 15% for 3-6” in the Merrimack valley, 4-8” in Boston, 5-10” in Marshfield and the full fury being just southeast of a line from Plymouth to New Bedford.

    It’s where that 850 mb jet gets to. There’s decent snow and wind to its northwest and we get into that, but the full fury of 10-18” with the ferocious winds are for the areas that are UNDER that 850 mb jet and I don’t 100% trust how far northwest that gets.

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    1. With the snow amounts I hope your wrong , I want over a foot here ( without destruction ) if we get less then 10 I will be extremely disappointed

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    2. yes, that RRFSA has been all over the place. It was juiced up on the 6Z run, only to back off on the 12z run. Let’s see what the 18Z run does. I’m with you. I am somewhat skeptical of the numbers being thrown out by the NWS. The “appeared” to have hung their hat with the HREF and/or the NBM. Oh well.

      10-18 seems far more reasonable than 18-24 imho. But it isn’t here yet, so who knows. There is always something unexpected.

      Will be fun to watch regardless.

      Reply

  56. Boston has its first Blizzard Warning since January 28, 2022. ❄️

    The 2021-22 Winter Season was only the 4th time Boston (54.0”) received more snowfall than Worcester (53.6”) in weather history. ❄️

    Reply

    1. Philip there is still a decent amount of snow on the ground here throughout the neighborhood’s & parking lots etc

      Reply

  59. Not for Nothing….going along with Tom’s Post.

    The Canadian RDPS and GDPS have come down considerably like the RRFSA. So, what’s up with that?????

    I know we’ll lose some accumulation near the coast due
    to ratios. But even looking at the qpfs, they are down as well
    for RRSFA, RDPS and GDPS.

    HOWEVER, the CANADIAN HI RES HRDPS model, everything is through the roof!!!

    So what does one believe???

    Will continue to watch. 🙂

    Reply

    1. See below, location of core of 850 mb jet.

      It’s the whole ballgame on this setup.

      The bottom 2 links are the models you mentioned.

      Reply

  60. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=850wh&rh=2026022212&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2026022212&fh=27&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=850wh&rh=2026022212&fh=27&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=850wh&rh=2026022212&fh=27&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    If the top 2 verify, the big case scenario verifies. Like everyone’s snow maps and the text from NWS 15 mins ago

    If the bottom 2 verify, shift snow contours and where to expect the worst winds probably 20-30 miles southeastward.

    This is such an important 20-30 miles, frankly for the south shore. It’s the difference btwn that again referred to NWS text and something that’s strong but probably not crippling.

    I hate that we have this 850 mb jet location difference this close in.

    Reply

    1. Excellent. Pretty pathetic to have this much disparity less than 24 hours in. Wow! Let’s see if the divergence closes up
      on the 18Z runs.

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      1. I’ve never been a fan of it. But that doesn’t change if it suddenly forecasts “more” either.

        It has too many short-comings.

        Reply

    1. Exactly !!!

      It’s a massive, important difference.

      For Marshfield, it’s probably the difference btwn crippling (power issues) and back to functionality by later Tuesday.

      Reply

  65. I’m not being an ass, I promise.

    In this setup, I almost don’t need to look at the snow projections first.

    I need to see where the model and its run reaches the 850 mb jet and where it puts the absolute core of that.

    Then, the snow and wind concerns land right under that.

    If there’s not consistency by 00z tonight, I’ll be beyond frustrated.

    Reply

  67. Yikes. Must be a storm coming. Took quite a while to get to the end of comments

    Thank you TK. Up four degrees from low to 32

    Did we have a G storm?? Big one was Fern so my grandson and I were thinking this is G

    Reply

    3. Note: Ch. 7 moved their 18-24 range a few miles back away from the immediate coastline.

      Probably not a huge difference in the long run.

      Reply

    2. Boston gets under the northwest fringe of the 850 mb jet for a 3 hr period.

      Marshfield gets further into it, but never its strongest core for about 6 hrs and the true core is further southeast of Marshfield.

      Seeing some signals of pushing the absolute worst a bit further south and east.

      Again, not a miss at all in Boston, but really not confident at all they see the worst.

      Reply

  74. I don’t know at this point.

    Does this stabilize or does that 850 mb jet sink a little further south on future runs across multiple models?

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    1. I don’t know the answer to that, but it’s the RRFS A that’s been on my mind the last 48 hrs and then I guess, just noticing that the GFS changed some.

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      1. That RRFS has been giving pause left and right.
        It came on board, then fell overboard, got retrieved and back on board ONLY to fall in yet again!!!!!

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    2. Who said anybody was doing that? Just noting what’s there.

      I can assure you I know how to use guidance my friend. Been doing it since the Barotropic model existed. And that was a LONG time ago. 😉

      Reply

  85. NOTE!!!!!!!!!!

    If I bring up what a piece of guidance says, that does NOT mean that is my forecast. I feel the need to point that out.

    Model output observations are NOT “TK is changing his forecast with every run.”

    If you want to know my forecast, it’s posted above – i.e., the actual blog post that these comments are attached to.

    Now that we have that cleared up, on we go. 🙂

    Reply

    1. Understood, although, we all take a lot more notice when you comment on model outputs as the resident expert. It’s hard to separate a simple comment about what a model is showing and if its supporting your forecast.

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  86. AIGFS does not produce enough precipitation on its 12z output to match snow maps like NWS. So we know they are not relying on that. 😉

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    1. Speaking of aigfs – in the blog you said near to below normal temps for mar 4-8th… what do you think of the past few runs where the aigfs seems to be picking up on some warmup with temps in the 60s? I know it not only seems far fetched but downright impossible with the snow cover we’ll have after tomorrow. But is any sort of a warmup plausible to even just above normal?

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  88. I’m hoping for it to not be over 14 inches here. With the last big storm the snow drifts were so large enough that I had no choice but to get a ladder and shovel the roof because there were three feet plus drifts in random areas of the roof. With how strong the wind gust potential is and the rate of snowfall… unless we “underperform” from the higher end numbers the news stations have put out – I will be back up there again.

    Also: I think I’d have far less anxiety about the storm if I got rid of one massive tree in particular. (Would gladly take tree removal company recommendations lol) Going to have to bite the big financial bullet and get rid of it this spring or summer. If all I had to worry about was power outages and roof clearing I’d be happier.

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  89. https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=na&band=09&length=24

    I look at this and I see the big upper low out well to our east.

    The models that advertise the big hit, they depend on the 500 mb low coming off the east coast to track northeast.

    The models like the RRFS A, the new GFS, it’s more of an ENE track.

    And I think it’s more likely to track closer to ENE than NE with what is east of us.

    I even think if I look really close, there’s a small disturbance tracking SE thru New Brunswick.

    I guess in summary, my thought is, the stuff further east in the Atlantic makes me think our system is going to gain more longitude than latitude as it passes by us.

    Reply

  91. Thanks, TK!

    What a game!

    I loved how the USA hockey family honored Johnny Gaudreau after the medal ceremony and brought his daughters onto the ice for the team photo. What an emotional and beautiful moment!

    I think goalie Connor Hellebuyck played his college hockey at UMass-Lowell. TK, aren’t you and SAK alums of UML? If so, congratulations!

    And, now, for something completely different…

    Back to Winter Storm Hernando, already in progress. 🙂

    Reply

      1. Yup, I guess we’re pretty much in that mode, although we still have the 18Z suite to monitor for any last minute changes. 🙂

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        1. In your opinion could Boston end up with a bigger hit vs here down on the south shore . I can’t be anymore prepared than I am for whatever happens .

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          1. Never say never, but the feature (850 mb jet) that is most responsible for the best snow and wind is coming from south to north.

            So, if it gets to Boston, it got to us and we would only be deeper into its strongest core.

            The one thing that might cause what you asked is if a band of heavy snow sits over Boston and we sit in the lighter band to its south for a while.

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            1. So if I’m reading it right ( I think ) your saying we will still get significant amount down here is that correct

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  94. 15Z RAP gets the 850 mb jet flow up over Boston

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=850wh&rh=2026022215&fh=23&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    big time

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=850wh&rh=2026022215&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    15Z RAP total Kuchera snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026022215&fh=44&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Model ratio snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2026022215&fh=44&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

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  96. Someone earlier mentioned thundersnow.

    Can/do the models predict lightning in such a storm?
    I would assume lightning comes when the storm is greatly intensifying.

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  98. I hope the power outages are minimal for the region. I am not sure if it’s OSHA regs or not, but I do not believe power line workers can go up in bucket trucks to fix snapped wires if the winds are above a certain velocity.

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  99. Now that we have the Euro and EuroAI, ie the 12z suite, I would say

    4-8” Merrimack valley southwestward thru northern Worcester County then down into west central CT

    6-10”, Rte 128 area into southern Worcester county, intoeastern CT

    10-12” in Boston and its suburbs southwestward to just west of rte 24

    12-15” with wind gusts to 50 maybe 55 mph in the south shore coastal towns, westward to jus east of rte 24

    And then about old exit 3, south of Plymouth onto Cape Cod is that 15-20” with the overlapping wind gusts btwn 55 and 70 mph.

    I can’t see the last paragraph’s snow and wind getting up to Boston’s latitude based on seeing all the models locations of the 850 mb jet, particularly its strongest core.

    Now, reserve the right to a shift these contours further, based on 00z suite.

    Reply

    1. 12-15 of heavy cement down here will be a significant cleanup. Snow removal ( professionally) has two parts . Part one is just keeping up with the storm during its intensity . Part two is the cleanup

      Reply

  100. After a quick review of current & short range guidance, no changes.

    I have noticed things on the map are a tad further east than previously modeled … Larger implications in the shorter term is much lower snow totals for places like eastern PA than many outlets had. We’ll see if this trend translates northeastward for impact, and if yes, how much.

    These are the subtle little things we look for. They are not seeable in “the models” outside of the very high res short range stuff, and obviously real time observations (surface, radar, satellite). This is the base for the “margin of error” that exists with every run of every model, and by default we see larger errors the further away we are from the event in question. This is just how it works in this science, and such things are never really explained to the public, who are often given the wrong impression that we have a magic crystal ball of sorts to tell us exactly what’s going to happen. Wishful thinking.

    The most accurate predictions are arrived at by hard core science. And even the best efforts can blow up in one’s face.

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  101. I am so confused…

    The last big storm we had the governor was quick to issue a remote work day for non emergency employees and urged employers to do the same… but we are close to the start of the storm this time and I’ve not seen her declare that yet for this storm. Anyone know why that would be? You’d think it’d be a lock with such expansive blizzard warnings. Some businesses will tell employees to try to come in unless she issues that which she almost certainly will… but what are they waiting for?

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    1. Good point. My son will have to drive from RI to Boston regardless but mornings rush hour is at the height (unless I read that incorrectly).

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    2. They don’t always make such announcements at the same time.

      Last month, the storm was already underway by late morning on Sunday.

      This time, it’s getting underway in the evening.

      Usually the “zone” is around 4 p.m. for such announcements, but it can vary. There are a lot of pieces to that puzzle.

      Also, even the governor has a life outside of “governing” so sometimes the schedule they have may result in such an announcement coming at “Time B” instead of “Time A”. It’s still made with enough time to make arrangements. 🙂

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  102. What is that train car called where two people pump the handle to make the car go?? Whatever it is, Tom, may I join you on it please.

    Wordle fail.

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    2. Definitely moving more east than north. A lot of snow lovers north of Plymouth may end up disappointed with this one even though 8-12 is still plausible in and around the Boston area. Just not sold on the very strong winds and blizzard conditions currently advertised except for the extreme south shore, cape, and islands.

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      1. It’s progged to move east first, then do a mini-cyclonic loop during the rapid occlusion phase. Coming out of that is when it moves northeastward and gives maximum impacts to SNE.

        This most certainly does NOT take areas south of Boston out of the running for larger impacts. Not even close.

        Reply

        1. That’s why I said south shore, cape and islands. I’m not sold on Boston seeing the snow totals and winds as advertised by local Mets. Many have 18-24 inches for Boston south. I’m not seeing that for Boston. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong.

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          2. I’m not seeing 18-24 for any widespread area, just pockets where some locations can exceed 18 if the banding is such that it allows that.

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        2. Ah, thank you TK !

          I did not pick up on the cyclonic loop or the northeastward movement thereafter.

          That explains why after 24 hrs, there seemed to be a change from an ENE track to more of a NE one.

          Again, thanks !

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    1. Contrary to popular belief, TWC does not put Cantore in the “area expected to be hit hardest” automatically. If they wanted to do that, he probably should have been put in eastern NJ. 😉

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  107. Travel bans now being issued along South Coast – no one to be on roads in Dartmouth between 6pm tonight and 11pm tomorrow

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  111. Not “officially” doing this yet, but adding a potential “less than 10 inch” area in addition to Outer Cape Cod / Nantucket may become a reality for southeastern NH and maybe northern Essex County MA depending on trends I see over the next few hours. I’m not sold on this yet. Just mentioning it here as a possibility.

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  114. This isn’t busting, the low west vs where the RRFS had it and a few others. Sorry I don’t see busting. I know folks look for outcomes that’s are good for them but 18 vs 24 vs 25 vs 12. The wind will make it impossible to measure.

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        1. Plenty of folks wish things that might not happen.

          Hmmmm …… I’m not sure I get this. Unless this isn’t about on TK’s blog, but everyone here who has been talking about maybe something a little more moderate, I think has been supporting it with reasons, like 850 mb maps of run to run comparisons.

          Now the logic may not be right, but I don’t think it’s been wishcasting.

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          1. I meant like we all wish things storm wise that don’t always happen bc we want them to. Just an observation about us humans behave when snow gets involved. Not sure why snow causes so might stress.

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  115. So as was noted previously, each set of short range guidance picks up a little more and a little more on where banding features will be. This doesn’t usually happen with this guidance until about now (in relation to storm peak intensification).

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  117. Thanks TK.

    Any way you slice it, a major blizzard is inbound to most of SNE. I’ll go 22” for BOS.

    I know it wasn’t “perfect”, but what a colossal, massive, historic victory for the GFS. Sandy level. February 2013 level. Have I mentioned the deterministic EC has gone to you-know-what?

    Reply

    2. BTW WxW kudos to you for calling this days ago. You were the only one I know of told us not to give up and you were 100% right.

      Yes the EC has gone to crap.

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    5. If your predicting 22 for Boston what is your number further south shore Halifax, pembroke & Marshfield where a few of us live

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  119. Tale of the tape on the 18z runs for 850 mb locations

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2026022218&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=300wh&rh=2026022218&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=850wh&rh=2026022218&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=850wh&rh=2026022218&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Better. RRFS A still a little SE of the other 3, but in my opinion, not as big a discrepancy

    Reply

    2. Yes, here too.

      My wife and I had returned from picking something up for her job and while the flags west of rte 3 weren’t moving greatly, there are on the eastern side of town and I looked at her and said, oh boy if it’s already breezy.

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  123. Since TK pointed out a couple hrs ago the change in motion from ENE to NE after a brief cyclonic loop, and now that I looking for that, I really do see that.

    I tried to see when and came up with around 72 to 70 degrees longitude that the whole vertically stacked system really does move more northeasterly and keeps the systems 850 mb jet in place for a while instead of it quickly moving out to sea.

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    2. Yeah, the furthest north models have eased southeastward, the RRFS A over the last 36 hrs has eased northwestward and I think they are getting pretty close to a consensus track with hopefully, little surprise.

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  126. You know what is pissing me off today???

    Pivotal Weather does NOT include longitude and latitude on their maps. PISS_POOR if you ask me. I think comparing 18Z to 12Z etc. And it would be most helpfull of the lon/lat were included on the maps. YES, I know, one can hover the mouse over the low center and that data is provided. Just would be more convenient if it were included on the top/bottom and sides of the maps.

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    1. Yes, I had to open a separate tab of just New England latitude and longitude maps to try to get my bearings. But then, that invites error because its difficult to accurately transpose what your trying to track.

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    2. For example:
      for 10Z tomorrow AM,

      The 18Z HRRR has the center at 38.62 , 71.10
      While the 19Z HRRR has it at 38.83 , 71.38

      Now that is a small change, but in 1 hours time, this model
      has determined that the system has stayed a bit more West while moving a bit more North. To me, this is very meaningful.

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      1. Outstanding, JpDave !!!!!

        Oh yes, however many miles that is can be a huge difference.

        Especially when 20-30 miles can be the difference btwn 50 mph gusts and 65 mph gusts on the south shore.

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  127. Thanks y’all. And I’m certainly not in a position to spike the football, I would never have committed to such a high end scenario 3-4 days ago, but did start to see the signs that this was trending more towards a classic Nor’easter pattern. Enjoy it but stay safe!!

    SSK – totals there should be comparable to Boston IMO, just depends on banding whether they’re a little higher or lower, but it won’t be much different.

    Reply

  129. Well, not that things were drastically changing on the 12z suite, BUT, I do think there were some small changes and for me, the 18z short range models that just ran, essentially stabilized things.

    I wasn’t going to be surprised if they slid a bit more southeast, but I don’t think that happened at all.

    And yes, I want to see the 00z stuff tonight to see that this stabilization continues. Especially for the track and the idea that the track turns from ENE to NE sometime when the stacked vertical system gets east of say, block island’s longitude.

    Reply

      2. Yup, that’s pretty intense.

        I think they may be pleasantly surprised by the coastal flooding part and hopefully don’t need to rescue anyone, because, in theory, the max surge should take place at low tide.

        But, the power outages potentially taking days to repair in the worst case scenario, yes, that has been and continues to be my biggest worry. Just hoping we get by under 55mph gusts, anything at that level or higher for 3-6 hrs and that concern could well come true.

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  132. Have seen so many pictures on the Plymouth fb pages of Jim Cantore. He is certainly being welcomed by the community there.

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  133. Had a fast round of flurries here but gone now.

    I have looked at more models the past 3 days than I normally look at in a month. The run-to-run stuff drives me crazy and I have learned (from TK) to a degree not to take it as gospel. It has served as a reminder to me 1) not to visit the ops runs all that often; 2) look at the ensembles when and where I can; and 3) never model hug.

    I have also come to the all important decision to have a glass of Cabernet while looking at pre-storm model runs. It provides clarity of course.

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  135. Any thoughts on conditions in Natick regarding snow totals, fluff factor and peak winds? Hoping the numbers dip a bit as you head inland. Thanks.

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  139. I must admit I have been waiting for a storm like this since I moved back from the Midwest in July 2022. This reminds me of the days I lived on Long Island and reminds me of Feb 2003 of January 1996. This may be the strongest one I have ever been in wind wise. And while that excites the weather side of me – the home owner in me is concerned. I am very glad I do not have big trees in my yard. I just had a good winters nap and expect to be up most of the night following what I think will end up being a historic storm for this area. Certainly one to remember

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  140. Oh and I must add I am very grateful for this blog and for all the weather lovers (much more experienced than me) that I can learn from. I know I am with a group that has been waiting for a storm like this for awhile as well.

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  141. TK/anyone …..

    In the NWS’ wind discussion, they mention we will have a favorable thermodynamic environment for mixing.

    Is that because, relatively speaking, it’s a milder overall environment, with not a great influx of very cold air to stabilize part of the column, which eases some of the mixing down to the sfc ????

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      1. Since there was no actual driving ban issued (it was only strongly suggested to stay off the road if non-essential) and a state of emergency does not mandate the closure of schools, it’s still up to each city / town / district / private school (whichever applies).

        They’ll all be closed tomorrow though.

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  147. Hi all!

    Catching up a bit. I just got back from the beach. 🙂 I didn’t go up for the weather. I went up for the water. Feet in the water that is!

    Deja vu almost, since last month for January’s foot dip I went a day earlier than planned due to the incoming snowstorm. Had to do that today too for February!

    The difference? Last month when we got there the temp was 8F. Today, it was 33F. Felt like breaking out the beach chair … other than the beach is covered in about a foot of snow shrinking down to nothing by high tide line, but still, a lot of snow on the beach!

    On the way up we drove through a couple of VERY narrow ocean effect bands of snow with tiny flakes but low visibility, for literally about 1/4 mile of road, then it would be gone. That was fascinating.

    Tom … answered your question just above.

    WxW … Thanks! You’re not wrong about the ECMWF. I wonder what changed to make it much less reliable? Also, do you have any further info on the switch over to RRFS “full time”? I’m going to go with 14 at Boston, which is a far cry from your 22. But I went low last time too. I may as well be consistently wrong if I’m gonna be wrong. Or maybe I won’t be? We’ll know in about 24 hours, or less. 🙂

    Jimmy B … I think the record for comments under one post is way over 500 (close to 700 if memory serves).

    Lastly, I am no fan of TWC, but I do admire Cantore quite a bit. He’s been with them since before they went in a direction I’m not really fond of. Immense respect for him. Very nice guy. We had a great chat at a conference a number of years ago. I like it when they put him up here, since he’s from southern New England anyway (born in CT).

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    1. I am becoming a big fan of Ian Oliver on Fox Weather – from Westport! And a Bishop Stang grad and gave them a plug while broadcasting! Love it

      Reply

    2. I think I ended up a little low on the last one too, I do think it’s pretty likely they come in 20+ but we’ll see 🙂

      No info on the RRFS, but will pass along if I see any. This is supposed to be NAM retirement year which should be a step towards it happening, but nothing definitive that I know of.

      Agree on Cantore too. I met him as a kid on Cape Cod during Tropical Storm Danny in 2009. Have only ever heard good things about him. These days though the only time I ever watch TWC is for landfalling hurricane coverage, which can still be decent. But otherwise, yeah, that network is long gone.

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  151. I don’t go looking for these, but someone just shared a social media “forecaster” (not a met) who is going for 36-45 inches from NJ to Long Island to RI and eastern MA. Tee – hee – hee.

    Listen, I used to draw storms like that when I should have been taking notes in 9th grade … but ya know. 🙂

    Reply

      1. You know it! Some of them will be made “viewable” during a massive project undertaking I can start once I square away some things with my parents’ estate, etc.

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  152. 12z HRRR forecast for 14z Monday at Concord NH was 6.5 inches.

    23z HRRR forecast for 14z Monday at Concord NH is 1.8 inches.

    That’s interesting…

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    1. Might take quite a while before you hear the rattling. This storm has a long way to deepen before it interacts enough with the high in central Canada to really get the wind cranking.

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  154. The 23z HRRR has a wind gust of 69 knots (79 mph) at 9 am at the west end of the Canal/Buzzards Bay.

    Sending you all the best, Jimmy B, for you, your family and your home! Stay safe!

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  155. I want 00z stuff first, but I’m one step closer to knocking southern NH and parts of northeastern MA down a little.

    Not there yet…

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  156. Boy I am absolutely exhausted!! Just got back from one last junk food market run lol . I can’t wait till tomorrow & I will be setting my alarm for 6am as it should absolutely be insane at that time down here . I have been thinking all day of what will it be like this Time tomorrow night . In my mind I’m thinking massive heavy front end loader type snow , trees down & transformers blowing . These are typical things that do happen down here on a run of the mill regular snow storm . I absolutely hate to loose power , hate it , but I am 100% read . I have lights placed around the house with fresh batteries, candles & the fire is built & ready to light . I also have a big buddy propane heater that my dad gave me that he said is safe & works awesome & have 3 overflowing buckets of wood inside . Looking forward to blogging here throughout ( hopefully )

    Reply

    1. Junk food!? Ok I’ll let it go this time (said as TK is eating his last slice of pepperoni beach pizza).

      Stay safe. Hope you keep your power.

      Reply

      1. Me too !! And you be safe & I know that pizza well lol ( why are they delaying the demo ) thank for all you do here it’s much appreciated

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  163. We decided to cut our trip to Quebec a bit short and come back today. Only issue is we had to divert to Amsterdam NY to pick up our dog who my mother has been watching the past week. Just finished dinner here and about to leave to head back to CT. Looks like we have a snowy ride ahead of us but hoping to be back before the worst of the snow and wind move in. I will feel much better being home during the storm in case there are any issues.

    Reply

    7. Thank you all!

      I was thinking about you Joshua on Friday night as we were walking around the European style streets of Old Quebec freezing our asses off!

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  164. Very interesting comparison between the 00z HRRR from 24 hours ago and the 00z HRRR that just finished running.

    There are some notable differences there, especially with regard to the northwestward reach of the snowfall.

    This is the first 00z evidence that takes me a step closer to lowering the accumulation in the northeastern portion of the WHW forecast area. Not there yet.

    Reply

    3. It’s 1 to 2 hours behind mainly because of a starting point further southwest.

      The track is east first, then a cyclonic loop, then northeast. The issue with starting further southwest is that the entire thing ends up displaced ~50 miles further southeast. This delays the start, and nudges the northwestern edge further southeast.

      This is quite evident on the 00z HRRR. This model’s maximum snowfall forecast is 19″ near New Bedford.

      Reply

      1. Think there’s another 10-20 mile further displacement before crunch time tomorrow morning?

        It’s seem liked a few miles each HRRR run the last many hrs.

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    2. Yes, Vicki! Cantore earlier mentioned that he thought some place south of Boston may end up with 30” and specifically mentioned Taunton with a few other cities.

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    3. Yup. Not sure what I did to deserve this. While I like snow, I am waving the white flag. It’s a lot of work when we get these 15 inch plus snowfalls including roof raking.

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        2. :). The key to avoiding the ice dams is getting the snow off the roof quick. That last big storm 4 weeks ago I had the flu and didn’t get out there for two days.

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  169. RAP model (which I don’t use often) has come down notably between its 15z run and its 00z run.

    Again I don’t utilize this much, but I’m taking note of all the trends between earlier today and the 00z with each piece of guidance before I make any changes, which I don’t expect to be significant even if I do, because my forecast was already lower than most of them out there.

    And if it blows up in my face, so be it. I don’t shy away from admitting a failed prediction. 🙂 It was one of the first things my mentors ever told me to make sure I could do.

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  174. The wind is picking up here and snow has finally begun! Just went outside and stop sign shaking and small trees in my yard swaying and it’s only 20-25mph

    Reply

    1. I have alluded to this several times.

      This is NOT the storm of a month ago – we’re 25 degrees warmer at onset. This is going to have some impact too.

      Reply

          1. Basically what I have … 25-32 low tonight, 27-34 high tomorrow, almost steady, coldest well NW (hills northern Worcester County / southwestern NH), mildest Cape Cod.

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  176. 00z NAM is down on amounts, 3km more so than the 12km.
    Joins the HRRR, RAP, FV3, and even the RRFS (version 2, but from 18z because that model lags by several hours). Waiting to see what version one does at 00z. I won’t pay as much attention to the global guidance at 00z, though I will glance at it and note it, for completeness.

    Reply

    1. I was looking at that. Impressive! There is no change to the intensity expectation. What I think is a little different now vs. 12 hours ago is that different point of development is making a ~50 mile difference in the outcome.

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  178. Trend is definitely for a less intense storm and generally less snowy, too. Dave Epstein just posted 30 minutes ago that with each model run the intensity and presumably reach has diminished somewhat. Not a miss, he said, but not the massive storm that was predicted 24 hours ago.

    I think Boston may get a foot. No thundersnow, no gale force gusts. North and west of the city the numbers decrease fairly steadily.

    I do not care for the continued hype about this storm. I don’t know all the ins and outs of models, but it’s been evident, really since very early this morning, that this storm is likely not going gangbusters north of the South Shore. I could also see RI being in the jackpot zone for snow totals, perhaps twice what Boston gets. For example, 10 in Boston, 20 in Providence.

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    1. 10-18, some areas of under 10 (Outer Cape Cod, maybe that area of southern NH and far northeastern MA – still TBA there because one band can change that). Someone pointed out to me earlier that ACK is a different world and they are correct. May come in even lower there.

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        1. No. It doesn’t fizzle on the South Shore. If anything you may end up near the top of my range due to where I think banding may end up staying around longest.

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  179. The first “death band” looks like it will meet its own death in about 2 hours as it moves north. It’s the band about 75 miles south of that one that will probably become THE band.

    Watching the progression of that.

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  180. Ok, I’ve seen enough. Struggle to reach 10 inches southeastern NH and far northeastern MA.

    I’m ready to face the music if this doesn’t work out. Logan exceeds 10, but they do not reach 18. Let’s go with that right now.

    Stepping away for about an hour for a cup of tea and to watch a highlights special from the olympics. 🙂

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  181. As I said earlier, I don’t see the city of Boston meeting blizzard criteria. I know it has little to do with actual snowfall projections but I don’t see. Boston seeing more than 8-12. The real meat and potatoes will be down around the extreme south shore, Cape and Islands though the Cape likely sees less snow for reasons TK alluded to. Moral of the story is no one sees 36-40 inches. In fact, I would wager that no one sees more than 2 feet and those who do will reside south and east of the city. It’ll still dump an appreciable amount of snow but not to the extent as some might expect. I wish I was wrong. Just being realistic. In fact, it’s possible Boston sees less than they did during the first major snow storm.

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    1. There is no arctic air available for this one.

      It will trend colder during, but not rapidly.

      Ok now I am REALLY making that tea. 🙂

      Reply

    1. I spotted one at 8PM and then none till about 9PM when it was snowing lightly for awhile. Now 10:19 and ZILCH. NOTHING.
      If Boston even gets a foot, I will be pissed off!!

      I feel like someone has reneged on a promise!!! IF IF IF this comes to be, please note that the RRFSA was the first to sniff this out, and then the Canadian RDPS.

      I can’t even get excited about this one. What a disappointment!!!!!

      Reply

    1. Yes. That’s the key. The 18-24 inches is likely to be confined to the extreme SS and south coast – not for the remainder of interior SNE and certainly not Boston.

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  189. The NWS notes the slight southern track adjustment to just south of the BM keeping the extreme snowfall projections to the south and east of I95. This has been my concern. I think JP Dave will be saying “big woof” when total accumulations end up slightly more than a foot in his town rather than the 18 plus inches models were spitting out yesterday evening and early this morning. This subtle shift that Tom snuffed out makes little difference for the SS other than place the bullseye over them but does cut down on high end projections to the remainder of SNE northwest of there.

    Reply

    1. Indeed. If Boston “ONLY” gets a foot I will be ROYALLY PISSED OFF, likely for a week or more!!!!!

      I hate this bullshit. I keep seeing 18 to 24 inches for Boston.
      I keep telling my wife NO, it will be less more like a foot or so.
      She said who is saying that you!!! the TV weatherman are saying 18-24 and they know MORE than you do!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      ha ha ha ha hardy har har.

      Reply

      1. They won’t back down this late. They are going to live or die with their forecasts. Many of them will need to walk their forecasts back a bit tomorrow much like Adam Kennedy for the Boston Red Sox. Haha.
        I think we should prepare ourselves for a run in the mill snowstorm where we are about a foot. 18-24 will not come to fruition. And it’s not about wishcasting. If that were the case, I’d being predicting 200 inches as I love snow. I’m just realistic and old enough to understand the trends.
        Tom pointed this possibility out over and over again.

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  194. I agree, SSK. The snow has really picked up here in the last 15 minutes.
    There is a coating on everything at bedtime.

    ‘Night, y’all!!!

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  195. That was really good tea. It was given to my mom originally – just regular tea. I always raise a tea mug to her when I have one, and the Stella D’oro for the Italian in us! 🙂

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  196. So JP Dave, based on your reaction I am thinking you did not agree with my accumulation forecast. Just a guess. 🙂

    That said, we should probably let it play out before we verify it.

    This entire forecast can still go boom on me. 🙂

    I’m not verifying anything until it’s over. 😀

    Reply

    1. I haven’t believe anyone on this one. Initially, I thought your numbers were low. they may end up high. Who knows.

      You are right, it ain’t over. Who knows…

      we shall see tomorrow.

      Snowing sideways here, but still light snow. Wind is howling

      Reply

  197. I admit I raised eyebrows at the increased totals in Boston and was surprised when blizzard warnings
    were issued there and even much further north. Not to be selfish but this always felt like a South Coast storm. Our storm finally! Not one where Boston gets a
    Lot of snow while we get rain. Even early on
    I felt this way. Then when projections went up for Boston and further north I started to think this would be a rain event for us again.

    Snow starting to stick consistently now that we are at 32

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    1. I don’t think the blizzard warnings are outrageous .. since they are dependent on visibility and wind and not snow amounts.

      Reply

  199. That first enhanced band that came from the south is weakening but has done a good primer job south of I-90.

    Reply

    1. Linseed oil. I painted houses in the early 80s, and as I recall we put linseed oil on before the primer.

      There’s a snowplow idling in front of our building, waiting to be able to do something. He’s keeping me awake. Should I go out and tell him the storm is cancelled just so I can sleep?

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    2. That SO fits the pattern this winter. Lots of little events. They do add up. Throw in 2 big events and you’ve got above average snowfall for the season.

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  201. Just did my first “reconnaissance walk” outside. Concerning. The snow is pasting to the trees – even north side of my house – and it’s coming down hard. This doesn’t bode well for later in the storm

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  203. NBC10 Providence calling for 18-24 as well for South Coast – already 80k with out power in South Jersey and Delaware

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    1. That was the area I outlined earlier today as being in the worst spot for the combo of heavy snow and strong wind, closest to the deepening low center. I have several friends there and my son’s gf also lives there.

      Reply

    1. Petey B did mention that the area that says 24+ they were expecting only patches of it.

      Personally, I wouldn’t go that high, but I don’t make Ch 10’s forecast. I make the WHW forecast. 🙂

      Let everyone call it the way they see it. 🙂

      Reply

  205. Doing some nowcasting, while I realize a contd slight southeast trend has continued, I think where the snow has gotten too has impressed me and I wonder if the decent snow will get a little further northwest than the current short range models show.

    Sometimes, these real strong systems develop one final heavy snow band a little further northwest than expected.

    But I’m hopeful the impact is on the wind and while I worry now about south of Plymouth and especially cape cod, I do wonder if the north shore and south shore can escape those 60+ mph winds in that 7am – 1pm time frame.

    After a few inches of snow accumulate on the south shore and specifically coat the trees, it becomes much less important how much total snow we get, it just really matters to me how high the wind gusts get in those 6 hrs.

    I do understand the storm is SSW of eastern Mass, but I also see the wind is maintaining 070 degree wind direction and usually when storms really miss, the wind barely starts at like 030 and backs really quickly to northerly and the winds aren’t doing that, which to me hints it won’t go too far southeast of the benchmark and thus Boston is still likely to see at least 1” melted QPF.

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  206. So far nothing impressive in Westwood. I’m sure the snow will play catch up but definitely running behind schedule.

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  208. About 3 inches in Padanaram- coming down heavy now and wind up to 25mph. Other stats:

    Staten Island already at 12 inches and they have a long way to go.

    150k without power in mid Atlantic and South Jersey. That’s not a good sign for us on South Coast

    Reply

  209. 2.25 in SE sutton. I’m not sure how much blowing is impacting that. I took several measurements and was surprised since it’s been heavy snow for a while

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  211. Stonybrook just had a 60mph wind gust. Talked to my brother in Portland Maine where they expect 6-10
    Inches and have closed schools already. Looking at radar and sharp cutoff I just don’t see that. Supposed to start there at 8am tomorrow

    Reply

  212. Boston Harbor tide guage running 1.5 ft higher vs expected.

    10.4 ft tide at 3 am.

    So, 3 more hours to build the waves some. Probably going to get that surge up to 1.7 ft or so by 3am, so a likely 12 – 12.1 ft high tide. Splash over and some very minor flooding, but should get by that one ok.

    Reply

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