DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Storm day. And it’s a decent winter storm with bands of heavy snow interspersed with lighter areas, typical for an intensifying storm, which is passing southeast of our region today. And as it does so, the bands of heavier snow with lulls of lighter snow will continue through the morning before a taper-off progresses west to east during the afternoon, with the result being heaviest amounts southwest of Boston, but still significant amounts in much of the remainder of the region, with relative low(er) spots in southeastern NH and far northeastern MA due to less time in heavier snow, and over Outer Cape Cod and especially Nantucket due to wetter snow. Minor to moderate coastal flooding occurs at east-facing and north-facing locations around high tide hours, limited by astronomical tides that are not that high, thankfully. Where heavy snow and strong wind combines there is a higher risk of power outages. The area most likely to experience blizzard conditions (3+ hours of visibility 1/4 mile or less due to falling and/or blowing snow, sustained wind or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater) will be from Cape Ann through Boston to southeastern MA. With intense bands of snow, thunder is possible, with highest chance of this occurring south of Boston until midday. The storm exits tonight and as clean-up and recovery progress on Tuesday it will do so with fair weather as high pressure moves in. But we are still in an active pattern and the next low pressure system is coming our way for Wednesday via the Great Lakes. This system is expected to be minor in comparison, bringing some snow, mix, and rain, with up to a few inches of snow favoring areas mostly north of I-90. Today I’m a little more optimistic about another break Thursday before the next storm system, passing just to the south based on current indications, brings a snow and mix chance back to us on Friday.
TODAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times morning, including the chance of thunder, especially south of I-90. Snow tapering off west to east afternoon. Accumulations of 10-15 inches in general, but some areas of under 10 inches can exist, favoring far northeastern MA and southeastern NH, as well as Outer Cape Cod and especially Nantucket. A band or two of accumulation of 15-20 inches is most likely from the Plymouth MA to Providence RI areas into parts of eastern CT. Highs 27-34, coldest well inland, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NE 20-35 MPH, gusts 45-65 MPH, strongest along the coast where some gusts in the 65-75 MPH range can occur.
TONIGHT: Clouds break. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow of 1 to 3 inches north of I-90, a mix of snow/sleet/rain to the south with less than 1 inch of snow. Highs 32-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Precipitation ends. Lows 25-32. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)
Watching March 1-2 for a threat of unsettled weather (rain/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)
Watching March 5-7 for another potential stretch of unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal.
Thanks TK.
Snowing moderate to heavy at times with about 7” of accumulation so far here in Coventry CT. Temp down to 27F. It’s windy but nothing too extreme yet .
Thank you TK.
Lighter snow on north shore at the moment. Would not expect huge accumulations here. Plenty of wind.
Thanks TK
The snow is caking to everything. Watching another heavy band west of me and seeing if it holds together moving toward my area. Thankfully I still have power. I hope that remains the case.
Heavy snow and wind here.
https://ibb.co/d48cgZ1s
Snowfall Forecasts update above.
Been watching the outage map climb
5:15 – 27,442
5:30 – 36,306
5:45 – 46,339
Some on the north shore like Hamilton are 100 percent out.
Which is wild to me because I’ve not see a 100% on the south shore (scituate is at 50%)
Not backing down are they.
Models would beg to differ.
We shall see.
Snowing nicely here. Perhaps just barely heavy. Hard to tell with the wind. Vis about 1/4 mile which normally would be heavy snow but with wind, not sure it is actually heavy snow.
Close enough as it is snowing good. Not all that much accumulation so far perhaps 3 or 4 inche eying out the window.
Thanks TK. ❄️
TK – Will temperatures make it into the 40s over the weekend?
Should be around 40 for highs.
Thanks TK.
Blinding snow here in JP.
Power surge here in hingham
Ought oh
These bands means business. I see the NWS haven’t changed their the yet.
Looking at radar I see no problem achieving high end numbers in areas.
Absolutely nuking here. Barley can see the house next door.
Look at bands pivoting in, radar scope is also great. Just not sure how to post it here.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Incredible rates currently, near zero visibility. No question under 1/4 mile easily.
Enjoy and hopefully you avoid the big wind gusts.
Thanks TK !
Trying to find a window that isn’t whitened out with snow.
Heavy snow, gusting near to over 50 mph at times.
I see Nantucket and Chatham, I think, have hit 70 and 72 mph gusts.
The low or massive 500 mb center did seem to gain some latitude the last 5-6 hrs.
Same here Tom. All windows caked in snow and heavy snow for the last three hours. Radar returns are lightening up a little bit over me. Hopefully that continues.
Good luck !
Hope you keep your power!
You too, so far so good in our neighborhood.
There’s one of those 50+ circles over town, but thankfully when I zoomed in, it’s hundreds and not thousands or tens of thousands that are out.
31 here. Wish it were colder.
Don’t like this wet stuff.
I can maybe see making a foot here , but much higher than that, I doubt it’s unless we can stay under this band for a longer period of time than I expect. I just don’t see it lasting that long.
Caveat: it does appear that the heaviest band HAS pivoted farther NW than modeled so that is a wild card.
We shall see.
Interesting day none-th-less.
As of 6 am wind gusting to 49.5 at Logan. Not that high here. High 30s maybe.
Boston temperature has been holding steady at 33F but has now dropped to 30F.
I suspect the coastal front is now moving back to the southeast?
Per Boston tide guage, the tide did get to 12.4 ft, so it built to a 2 ft surge by 3am.
Thank goodness the tide is ‘going out, the surge is at 3.3 ft, the depth should be 4.1 ft currently and it’s 7.4 ft
And the eveesource outage map starting to light up from marshfield points south and east.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=08&length=24
wintercaine.
Or SNOWACAINE!
Yes.
The low itself is, obviously in the center of the vertically stacked low, but the whole swirl is massive.
Good morning! Nap is over. Thanks TK. We lost power for 15 minutes – our house is practically encased in snow as we can barely see outside our windows. It’s roaring now. This should be a fun 6-10 hours. Is this what it is like to feel cut off from the world? LOL!
Good luck, be safe
The HRRR seemed to be handling the simulated radar well so far.
Watching Channel 5, Cindy mentioned it was a “bombcyclone noreaster blizzard” and Antionette almost fainted.
Too funny…
They probably staged it. 😉
EXACT wording from the SPC
DISCUSSION…Classic bomb cyclone/nor’easter off the Northeast coast
will slow its deepening over the next few hours as it tracks
northeastward off the southern New England coast through midday.
OK, now it is nearly a WHITE OUT here. Vis uner 1/8 maybe even under 1/16. Probably like 100 feet or so.
WHITE WHITE WHITE WHITE!!!!!
Two feet is not of the question
SPC discussion-https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0117.html
Try this link
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0117.html
IF there is enough time, absolutely. That is why I think we fall short. We shall see.
They don’t actually mention accumulations in that mesoscale discussion. They talk about the heaviest snowfall rates persisting into late morning before diminishing.
Do they usually do that? I don’t recall one way or the other.
Well, per the 11z HRRR, Marshfield is entering the 850 mb jet. Looks like it’s 60 knots overhead.
We sit under this now the next 4-6 hrs and around 14z, it maxes to 75 knots overhead Marshfield.
And we’ve gusted to 54 mph under 55 knots at 850 mb
So, I’m not anticipating getting to near 70 mph, but I have to think in that 13 to 15z window, we’re going to hit 60-65 mph.
Hadi mentioned radar scope. Haven’t figured out how to post a loop, but here is a still shot from a few minutes ago
https://ibb.co/ZzTvc76F
Here is a current radarscope loop
https://ibb.co/xtfG01t2
JPD…
https://photos.app.goo.gl/UAfQJ5NuavsjaLBM9
That link should give you a radar loop. I also have it in the mode which will pick out the synoptic band better.
In this loop, you can also see the development of the dry air band to the west of it. As the heavy band tries to move westward, watch it start drying up on its western edge as it reaches that area.
It is this type of precipitation pattern that can yield very variable amounts.
What mode did you select for that? thanks
Super Resolution
Reflectivity
Tilt 1
Thanks
vis up to about 300 feet. 🙂
Providence airport just reported 16.3 so far as of 7 am.
WOW!!
Oh my.
That is incredible!!!
7 AM Logan observation
https://forecast.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/KBOS.xml
HEAVY SNOW, wind gusting to 58.7 mph vis 1/4 mile
Most stations in Eastern MA are reporting HEAVY snow with vis 1/4 mile. Good chance most stations meet blizzard criteria. The wind is there as long as vis stay at 1/4 mile or less.
Just came from outside! WOW! I almost got knocked over by the wind. It is roaring!! Snow drifts up
To my waist. Snow pasting on my house. We have 14 inches (Spotter measurement up the road on Bliss Corner). Definitely dangerous out there. Stu home
Folks
Good morning. Thank you TK and everyone. I measure 9.5 so far but it’s drifting so much it’s not easy to measure. We are at our low if 26. Wunder has us gusting into mid 40s.
As with everyone, I cannot see out any windows.
I have to say that I love the sounds and feel of today
https://ibb.co/xtLYzC0t
https://ibb.co/BHsNqv2t
Six inches of in Chelmsford.
Michael Page on Channel 5 just called the storm “beefy”.
New radar scope loop. Can readily see why vis is up a bit here, not that it is snowing lightly, vis is just up a bit
https://ibb.co/yF3fp18K
Radar scope
Convective discussion
https://ibb.co/GGhSvfD
Video
https://streamable.com/1giw0i
Morning just getting up : Wow !! We are in it with the wind & snow . It sucks because I can’t see out any of my windows ( had to open door ) as tom said above all my screens are snow covered . I think it’s just a matter of time before I loose power. As I’m typing this I just stepped out onto my farmers porch & it’s really difficult to even judge what I have or ( you might laugh ) the intensity coming down . I have not read post yet are we still going to get the 2-4 inches per hour & this is going most of the day . I can’t imagine what it must look like outside my neighborhood as it must me nearly impossible to travel . Just had a major wind gust that shook the house & big front tree , I’m sure this will be an official blizzard
I’m just a few towns over from you in Hingham and yep – absolutely plastered. I have a singular mission which is to clear the front step heading outside so the door never gets covered and I clear off the snow on the storm door so I can look outside… which is just blinding white snow anyway.
Wind gust map, key messages, snowfall reports map:
https://ibb.co/M39JJwK
Awesome! Thank you!
Boston (Logan) reported 5.2” so far.
Officially blizzard conditions there the past hour. Two more and it’s official.
Sounds about right as I look out the window.
NO way we reach 20 for sure. 15? Doubtful, but possible.
10-12 more likely. It ain’t over till it’s over!!!
I looked at the few Box Totals there are and have no idea how Spotters are getting reliable measurements. I guess there is a way, but … reliable?!
Islip Airport on Long Island at 22+.”
Montauk Point with 84mph wind gust – Nantucket 70
Down to 30 here
Ocean: 36
Just snuck in a wordle and got it in 3.
Coastal front on the move southeast.
My house is shaking at times here – at least on second floor
Eversource Outage map
https://ibb.co/5gZD4v74
Just as intense bands, blinding snow.
Down to 29.7 here in JP.