DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Storm day. And it’s a decent winter storm with bands of heavy snow interspersed with lighter areas, typical for an intensifying storm, which is passing southeast of our region today. And as it does so, the bands of heavier snow with lulls of lighter snow will continue through the morning before a taper-off progresses west to east during the afternoon, with the result being heaviest amounts southwest of Boston, but still significant amounts in much of the remainder of the region, with relative low(er) spots in southeastern NH and far northeastern MA due to less time in heavier snow, and over Outer Cape Cod and especially Nantucket due to wetter snow. Minor to moderate coastal flooding occurs at east-facing and north-facing locations around high tide hours, limited by astronomical tides that are not that high, thankfully. Where heavy snow and strong wind combines there is a higher risk of power outages. The area most likely to experience blizzard conditions (3+ hours of visibility 1/4 mile or less due to falling and/or blowing snow, sustained wind or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater) will be from Cape Ann through Boston to southeastern MA. With intense bands of snow, thunder is possible, with highest chance of this occurring south of Boston until midday. The storm exits tonight and as clean-up and recovery progress on Tuesday it will do so with fair weather as high pressure moves in. But we are still in an active pattern and the next low pressure system is coming our way for Wednesday via the Great Lakes. This system is expected to be minor in comparison, bringing some snow, mix, and rain, with up to a few inches of snow favoring areas mostly north of I-90. Today I’m a little more optimistic about another break Thursday before the next storm system, passing just to the south based on current indications, brings a snow and mix chance back to us on Friday.
TODAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times morning, including the chance of thunder, especially south of I-90. Snow tapering off west to east afternoon. Accumulations of 10-15 inches in general, but some areas of under 10 inches can exist, favoring far northeastern MA and southeastern NH, as well as Outer Cape Cod and especially Nantucket. A band or two of accumulation of 15-20 inches is most likely from the Plymouth MA to Providence RI areas into parts of eastern CT. Highs 27-34, coldest well inland, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NE 20-35 MPH, gusts 45-65 MPH, strongest along the coast where some gusts in the 65-75 MPH range can occur.
TONIGHT: Clouds break. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow of 1 to 3 inches north of I-90, a mix of snow/sleet/rain to the south with less than 1 inch of snow. Highs 32-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Precipitation ends. Lows 25-32. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)
Watching March 1-2 for a threat of unsettled weather (rain/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)
Watching March 5-7 for another potential stretch of unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal.
Thanks TK.
Snowing moderate to heavy at times with about 7” of accumulation so far here in Coventry CT. Temp down to 27F. It’s windy but nothing too extreme yet .
Thank you TK.
Lighter snow on north shore at the moment. Would not expect huge accumulations here. Plenty of wind.
Thanks TK
The snow is caking to everything. Watching another heavy band west of me and seeing if it holds together moving toward my area. Thankfully I still have power. I hope that remains the case.
Heavy snow and wind here.
https://ibb.co/d48cgZ1s
Snowfall Forecasts update above.
Been watching the outage map climb
5:15 – 27,442
5:30 – 36,306
5:45 – 46,339
Some on the north shore like Hamilton are 100 percent out.
Which is wild to me because I’ve not see a 100% on the south shore (scituate is at 50%)
Not backing down are they.
Models would beg to differ.
We shall see.
Snowing nicely here. Perhaps just barely heavy. Hard to tell with the wind. Vis about 1/4 mile which normally would be heavy snow but with wind, not sure it is actually heavy snow.
Close enough as it is snowing good. Not all that much accumulation so far perhaps 3 or 4 inche eying out the window.
Thanks TK. ❄️
TK – Will temperatures make it into the 40s over the weekend?
Should be around 40 for highs.
Thanks TK.
Blinding snow here in JP.
Power surge here in hingham
Ought oh
These bands means business. I see the NWS haven’t changed their the yet.
Looking at radar I see no problem achieving high end numbers in areas.
Absolutely nuking here. Barley can see the house next door.
Look at bands pivoting in, radar scope is also great. Just not sure how to post it here.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Incredible rates currently, near zero visibility. No question under 1/4 mile easily.
Enjoy and hopefully you avoid the big wind gusts.
Thanks TK !
Trying to find a window that isn’t whitened out with snow.
Heavy snow, gusting near to over 50 mph at times.
I see Nantucket and Chatham, I think, have hit 70 and 72 mph gusts.
The low or massive 500 mb center did seem to gain some latitude the last 5-6 hrs.
Same here Tom. All windows caked in snow and heavy snow for the last three hours. Radar returns are lightening up a little bit over me. Hopefully that continues.
Good luck !
Hope you keep your power!
You too, so far so good in our neighborhood.
There’s one of those 50+ circles over town, but thankfully when I zoomed in, it’s hundreds and not thousands or tens of thousands that are out.
31 here. Wish it were colder.
Don’t like this wet stuff.
I can maybe see making a foot here , but much higher than that, I doubt it’s unless we can stay under this band for a longer period of time than I expect. I just don’t see it lasting that long.
Caveat: it does appear that the heaviest band HAS pivoted farther NW than modeled so that is a wild card.
We shall see.
Interesting day none-th-less.
As of 6 am wind gusting to 49.5 at Logan. Not that high here. High 30s maybe.
Boston temperature has been holding steady at 33F but has now dropped to 30F.
I suspect the coastal front is now moving back to the southeast?
Per Boston tide guage, the tide did get to 12.4 ft, so it built to a 2 ft surge by 3am.
Thank goodness the tide is ‘going out, the surge is at 3.3 ft, the depth should be 4.1 ft currently and it’s 7.4 ft
And the eveesource outage map starting to light up from marshfield points south and east.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=08&length=24
wintercaine.
Or SNOWACAINE!
Yes.
The low itself is, obviously in the center of the vertically stacked low, but the whole swirl is massive.
Good morning! Nap is over. Thanks TK. We lost power for 15 minutes – our house is practically encased in snow as we can barely see outside our windows. It’s roaring now. This should be a fun 6-10 hours. Is this what it is like to feel cut off from the world? LOL!
Good luck, be safe
The HRRR seemed to be handling the simulated radar well so far.
Watching Channel 5, Cindy mentioned it was a “bombcyclone noreaster blizzard” and Antionette almost fainted.
Too funny…
They probably staged it. 😉
EXACT wording from the SPC
DISCUSSION…Classic bomb cyclone/nor’easter off the Northeast coast
will slow its deepening over the next few hours as it tracks
northeastward off the southern New England coast through midday.
OK, now it is nearly a WHITE OUT here. Vis uner 1/8 maybe even under 1/16. Probably like 100 feet or so.
WHITE WHITE WHITE WHITE!!!!!
Two feet is not of the question
SPC discussion-https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0117.html
Try this link
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0117.html
IF there is enough time, absolutely. That is why I think we fall short. We shall see.
They don’t actually mention accumulations in that mesoscale discussion. They talk about the heaviest snowfall rates persisting into late morning before diminishing.
Do they usually do that? I don’t recall one way or the other.
Well, per the 11z HRRR, Marshfield is entering the 850 mb jet. Looks like it’s 60 knots overhead.
We sit under this now the next 4-6 hrs and around 14z, it maxes to 75 knots overhead Marshfield.
And we’ve gusted to 54 mph under 55 knots at 850 mb
So, I’m not anticipating getting to near 70 mph, but I have to think in that 13 to 15z window, we’re going to hit 60-65 mph.
Hadi mentioned radar scope. Haven’t figured out how to post a loop, but here is a still shot from a few minutes ago
https://ibb.co/ZzTvc76F
Here is a current radarscope loop
https://ibb.co/xtfG01t2
JPD…
https://photos.app.goo.gl/UAfQJ5NuavsjaLBM9
That link should give you a radar loop. I also have it in the mode which will pick out the synoptic band better.
In this loop, you can also see the development of the dry air band to the west of it. As the heavy band tries to move westward, watch it start drying up on its western edge as it reaches that area.
It is this type of precipitation pattern that can yield very variable amounts.
What mode did you select for that? thanks
Super Resolution
Reflectivity
Tilt 1
Thanks
vis up to about 300 feet. 🙂
Providence airport just reported 16.3 so far as of 7 am.
WOW!!
Oh my.
That is incredible!!!
7 AM Logan observation
https://forecast.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/KBOS.xml
HEAVY SNOW, wind gusting to 58.7 mph vis 1/4 mile
Most stations in Eastern MA are reporting HEAVY snow with vis 1/4 mile. Good chance most stations meet blizzard criteria. The wind is there as long as vis stay at 1/4 mile or less.
Just came from outside! WOW! I almost got knocked over by the wind. It is roaring!! Snow drifts up
To my waist. Snow pasting on my house. We have 14 inches (Spotter measurement up the road on Bliss Corner). Definitely dangerous out there. Stu home
Folks
Good morning. Thank you TK and everyone. I measure 9.5 so far but it’s drifting so much it’s not easy to measure. We are at our low if 26. Wunder has us gusting into mid 40s.
As with everyone, I cannot see out any windows.
I have to say that I love the sounds and feel of today
https://ibb.co/xtLYzC0t
https://ibb.co/BHsNqv2t
Six inches of in Chelmsford.
Michael Page on Channel 5 just called the storm “beefy”.
New radar scope loop. Can readily see why vis is up a bit here, not that it is snowing lightly, vis is just up a bit
https://ibb.co/yF3fp18K
Radar scope
Convective discussion
https://ibb.co/GGhSvfD
Video
https://streamable.com/1giw0i
Morning just getting up : Wow !! We are in it with the wind & snow . It sucks because I can’t see out any of my windows ( had to open door ) as tom said above all my screens are snow covered . I think it’s just a matter of time before I loose power. As I’m typing this I just stepped out onto my farmers porch & it’s really difficult to even judge what I have or ( you might laugh ) the intensity coming down . I have not read post yet are we still going to get the 2-4 inches per hour & this is going most of the day . I can’t imagine what it must look like outside my neighborhood as it must me nearly impossible to travel . Just had a major wind gust that shook the house & big front tree , I’m sure this will be an official blizzard
I’m just a few towns over from you in Hingham and yep – absolutely plastered. I have a singular mission which is to clear the front step heading outside so the door never gets covered and I clear off the snow on the storm door so I can look outside… which is just blinding white snow anyway.
Wind gust map, key messages, snowfall reports map:
https://ibb.co/M39JJwK
Awesome! Thank you!
Thanks!
Thank you
Boston (Logan) reported 5.2” so far.
Officially blizzard conditions there the past hour. Two more and it’s official.
Sounds about right as I look out the window.
NO way we reach 20 for sure. 15? Doubtful, but possible.
10-12 more likely. It ain’t over till it’s over!!!
I looked at the few Box Totals there are and have no idea how Spotters are getting reliable measurements. I guess there is a way, but … reliable?!
Islip Airport on Long Island at 22+.”
Wow!!! Now that IS SOMETHING!!!!
I mentioned that when I called my total in. She said everybody is saying the same thing
Montauk Point with 84mph wind gust – Nantucket 70
Down to 30 here
Ocean: 36
Just snuck in a wordle and got it in 3.
Coastal front on the move southeast.
My house is shaking at times here – at least on second floor
Eversource Outage map
https://ibb.co/5gZD4v74
Just as intense bands, blinding snow.
Down to 29.7 here in JP.
RadarScope Image shows Boston now OUT of the Death Band!!
https://ibb.co/Qq3nMBR
Might preclude Boston meeting Blizzard Criteria.
Could also be a reflection of the snow “drying” out some with the temperature drop? I dunno. I just wanted to stay in those yellow echoes. Not to be, I guess.
Still looks to be snowing just as hard.
Glancing on Facebook & multiple big trees down in pembroke
Excerpt from NWS discussion from a few minutes ago
730 AM UPDATE:
Mesoscale snow band starting to pivot as it becomes oriented
more NE-SW across RI and SE MA. Impressive mid level
frontogenesis producing 2-3 inches/hr snowfall rates. Expect
these snowfall rates to continue within this band across RI and
SE MA through the morning before rates start diminishing this
afternoon. Given snowfall amounts of 10-17 inches in this area
as of 12z, expecting total storm snowfall of 20-30 inches
across RI and SE MA, and woudn`t be surprised to see a few
reports exceeding 30 inches here.
link
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=CI&glossary=1&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&site=NWS&version=1
Fwiw…Cindy’s 5 +5 forecast has multiple opportunities for more snow down the road.
This radar Scop loop shows DRY AIR pushing South and at the same time, the northern edge of the “Death Band” approaching from the East. Will that yellow blob get to Boston before the dry slot moves in???
https://ibb.co/Tqgy3768
As I keep watching radar scope, it looks to me like the DEATH BAND is about to move back in. As hard as it is snowing now, soon to be snowing even harder!!!!
Good Wordle 3, JPD. 3 here also
Excellent!!! we’re co-engineers for now….someone will get it in 2. Too many good players here. 🙂
Very possible
Well someone has to be in the subsidence area , I guess that would be me this time. The heavy snow has been approaching all night but dissipates just before it gets here with only a few brief lobes of heavier snow, with about 8.5” so far. The wind is pretty strong though with some gusts around 45.
Where are u located again?
Southbridge? I think that is what I remember, If not that, close to it.
Very close Jp Dave, the town next door to the west Sturbridge.
Well I remember the “S”. sorry I missed that.
I don’t know how anyone can get an accurate snow measurement. After the wet paste that initially came down, the snow is lighter and blowing everywhere. Just absolute madness out there right now.
I posted above. When I called my numbers in to nws, I said I did my best. The woman who answered said everyone has said the same.
RI could have some historic numbers. Insane radar view.
That area has done well this winter. Last storm they had some jackpot areas down near the airport
Look at this additional band forming to the West
https://ibb.co/994dQ8Mq
Is that called a deformation band?
A deformation band in meteorology is
a narrow, elongated, and often intense band of clouds and precipitation formed within a region of atmospheric deformation, where opposing wind flows cause air to converge and stretch. These bands, frequently associated with winter weather (snow/sleet), occur in cols between cyclonic and anticyclonic systems, representing a 6-9 hour transition phase where clouds thin, elongate, and eventually dissipate.
Zero chance to get an accurate measurement with this wind. All I know I was out with the dog and it was getting deep.
It looks like the system is jogging a bot to the ESE???
Don’t like that. Just a bit too far South and East.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/ne/GEOCOLOR/20260540821-20260541216-GOES19-ABI-NE-GEOCOLOR-600×600.gif
It’s bad down here. Been under those bands for the better part of the last 4 hours. Temp down to 29 from 32 earlier.
At Logan as of 8 AM
Heavy Snow with wind gusting to 51.8 mph
Vis 1/4 mile. That’s 2 hour’s worth. 1 more to go.
Temp 30 with NORTH WIND already! NE winds didn’t last all that long!!!
While it’s snowing nicely in downtown Boston, it is NOT 2-4 inches an hour. Not even close. I think I have 5 inches thus far, and I think ~10 will be the final tally. It’s not a big storm here. Nor is the wind a major factor.
Please note, I know that this IS a big storm to our south and southwest.
Why you doing that Joshua? It’s heavy snow being reported. Easily 2-3 inches per hour. I guarantee you it’s going to be over 10 inches and 59 mph. That a bad storm. Not sure what the goal is here.
There is more than just your immediate neighborhood which is always the lowest by a wide margin.
I’m down near TF GREENE sand yes we are in the death band I’m measuring about 21 inches. 8am wind gusting to 63mph.
Crazy!! You’ll get to 30 easily and then some
Tom : Winslow & Standish multiple poles snapped
Not surprised
Watching the radar, I’m curious as to how much Mark has not too far south of me in Coventry, it seems we’ve been on the same snow axis.
No question someone walks away with 36+ under those bands down in RI.
Just got in and measured about 10.5 inches. I won’t be in the jackpot area but will easily get over a foot. The snow I had to shovel was that heavy wet snow. Please be careful to anyone who has to shovel. I am hoping now with the temperatures in the mid 20s the snow will become lighter and easy to move later.
So far as of 7am NY has 15.1 inches of snow and I see BOS has 5.2.
Which city will get the most snow from the storm?
Nyc
Down to 27 here. SNOW should accumulate much faster now that is not that heavy wet stuff.
The snow is very light and fluffy. I haven’t even tried to measure. Our driveway has large patches that are empty and dry. A crazy, wild guess is 4 or 5 inches.
I got Wordle in 3.
Nice please take your spot in the engineers seat.
I am going with NYC
Maybe Philip has where BOS is for the season.
NY so far for the season is up to 37.4 for the season
Current view
https://ibb.co/4wJKXPP9
Also now down to 28.
Another thing I just saw for NYC thanks to Meteorologist Lee Goldberg from WABC. He put a graphic called Blizzard on the 6s
January 96 NY got 20.2
February 06 NY got 26.9
January 16 NY got 27.5 it’s biggest snowstorm on record
February 26????
Box table for Highest Wind Reports.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS
It’s not surprising that 57% of Barnstable county has no power.
No way to measure but by the looks of certain spots I am sure we are over 10 if not 12 at this point. It’s been intense for several hours.
I’m guessing 8 or 9 inches.
Thanks, TK!
The snow stick in the backyard is measuring 22” as best as I can tell. It was 3” when I went to bed. The house is plastered in snow on all sides! We lost power at around 8:15 am.
Can someone send over some coffee? 🙂
Wow !!
Coffee 🙂
Oh no Captain. This band has been relentless but is showing some signs of improvement if you want to call it that over my area with the temp drop,
We have been right on the edge of the intense bands, down south of the city will have some incredible numbers.
That’s for sure. Just missing out, but just enough to make it interesting. It ain’t over, but so far color me disappointed.
I think the radar can help also identify the 850 mb jet.
In other words, the western edge of the heaviest band is probably 60-65 kts at 850 mb.
And is the echoes get darker or more yellow, it’s getting above 70 kts.
Accordingly, we’ve ramped up even further in the wind dept. its 9 am and the next 2 hrs look even a little stronger for the jet above.
There’s an orange dot on eversource for 1200 customers alone on the western part of town and then many other circles on the eastern side, 10 here, 100 there, etc.
It’s not going to be pretty what the outcome is after the next 2 hrs.
Wherever that death band is the next 2 hrs, the sfc wind gusts are ferocious along with the heavy snow.
The 12Z runs have my location getting about 11 inches on top of 5 or 6 that fell by 7AM would bring the total to 16 or 17 inches.
Not too shabby. We’l see what the final total will be.
AT THIS HOUR, NWS still has this map out
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NO WAY Boston gets to 20 inches. Not in my opinion anyway.
Time will tell.
Has to get a little over 21 inches to make the TOP 10 all time.
9 AM obs from Norwood airport.
temp 27, vis 0.15 miles in HEAVY SNOW
Wind North at 17 mph, gusting to 38
Ace, you’re not too far from there, is the visibility that low?
I’m about 8 miles SSE of Norwood Airport, and yes, it’s that bad. Arod I believe is in Westwood which is even closer.
13Z HRRR for 16Z or 11 AM
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2026022313&fh=3&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Starts to drop off at noon
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2026022313&fh=4&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Ok, I see 4 green circles each running btwn 500 and 800 customers out, each circle.
And another circle for 1200, so, that’s 3600 before I account for the other 50 circles that each are worth 10, 50 or 100.
So, it’s bad down here, the wind and we need to get through the worst core of this 850 mb jet up til 11am.
But this is turning out to be quite serious for Marshfield and other coastal towns.
For Boston 13Z HRRR (8am) calling for an additional 8 inches on top of 6 or 7 inches that fell up to 8AM for a grand total of
14 to 15 inches, Near the TOP of TK’s range and more reasonable than the NWS 18-24 inches.
Frankly, I see us getting OUT of the heavier snow before that can happen. Still say a foot is about tops.
I’m in that color me disappointed train car with you JP Dave. I understand this is a major storm for many but is a bit disappointing to have an opportunity like this wasted with a relentless dry slot for my area. I’m hoping as the storm moves away the band will shift a bit for a little more accumulation. It’s only 9:18 so there is still time for things to change.
I doubt it. I think you are SCREWED. Not totally screwed here, but enough to be disappointed!!
The disappointed folks are welcomed to come to marshfield and help us recover when this ends.
Saw the worst is still to come for south coast as costal front moves east from Providence- rates 2 to 4 inches per hour in those bands
Hingham to Brockton to Providence South and East, still plenty to go.
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=NDBC44013&hours=72
Boston Harbor buoy.
Sustained at 40+, gusting to 60 and just coming right into south shore coastal towns.
It’s such a strong wind here.
I think I/We have BROKEN IMGBB!!!! Can’t load site!!!!