DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)
Mother Nature is getting set to give you an example of why “Meteorological Spring” does not automatically mean springlike-weather. After all, the first 19+ days of the it take place during winter. Our reminder comes in the form of an arctic cold front crossing the region today with a minor snow event, which also brings in a very cold air mass that will be with us through Monday and into early Tuesday too. Unlike last Monday, though, we won’t be dealing with any blizzards, just dry and very cold weather. Unsettled weather does make a return as we head to later Tuesday and early Wednesday as low pressure makes a run at the region form the southwest. This one brings milder air, so after our next round of precipitation starts as snow later Tuesday it transitions to sleet then rain (maybe a period of freezing rain for some areas depending on how quickly the surface temperature warms). A weak area of high pressure brings an interlude of drier weather from mid through late Wednesday, but as it stands now the boundary being nearby brings lots of clouds for Thursday. The midweek period will feature slightly milder air here.
TODAY: Cloudy morning-midday with a period of snow or snow showers west to east – accumulations of up to but mainly under 1 inch mostly on existing snowcover and unpaved / non-cement surfaces. Clearing with the return of sun west to east this afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH during the morning, NW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in the evening. Wind chill often below 0.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in the morning, diminishing later on.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +2 inland / valleys, 3-10 coast / urban areas. Wind calm.
TUESDAY: Clouding over. Snow/sleet arrives southwest to northeast afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind calm becoming SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain in the evening – pockets of freezing rain possible in some locations. Temperatures steady 32-39 early then rise slightly. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming W late.
WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Fog patches early morning. Highs 42-49. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable then SE by late-day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 32-39. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)
Low level cold, upper level warm-up translates to a rain/ice/sleet chance as low pressure moves in March 6. Chance of getting into the warm sector to start next weekend (March 7) before a cold front brings back chilly weather to end the weekend (March 8) based on current timing and expected track of low pressure. Fair, chilly to seasonable weather late period as high pressure moves in. Note of reminder: The switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on March 8 (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT).
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)
Looking for unsettled weather early period marking a transition from seasonably cool to above normal temperatures, but lasting for a brief period before colder weather makes a return at the end of the period as the volatile late winter pattern continues.
Good morning and thank you TK.
37 here after low of 31
Ocean: 36
WORDLE: A big fat PHEW 6!!!
Always good to get the word. I was thinking about it last night. You have six chances to find a random word using 26 letters. I’d say just getting it is quite an accomplishment
That’s a nice way of looking at it. 🙂
Radar gives you the real picture and it looks pretty anemic, compared to RRFS & 3km NAM simulations, which are slightly over-done.
Someone looking at the temp near 20 in Taunton and some other cold spots may say “but hey, it’s cold, we have fluffy snow coming, so there will be more!” but that will be incorrect since that cold is shallow (a few hundred feet thick at most) and plays no role in today’s snowfall.
I’m disappointed going into this event how it has been handled by the RRFS (both versions 1 & 2) – something I hope they are addressing. This is a good reason for keeping the HRRR around a little longer than planned, which they will be doing, btw.
This event should be good for no more than 1″ across the extreme majority of the WHW forecast area, and we’ll see the sun again before today is over.
Thanks TK !
Thanks TK.
If you look at radar only, you’d think Portsmouth NH is solidly snowing. If you look at the surface ob, it’s overcast.
Radar ain’t foolin’ me this morning.
Yes, it will snow, once the dry air is overcome and the echoes the radar is showing you can actually reach the surface.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 4
Nice!!
I also got Wordle in 4.
Very nice 4s, Tom and SClarke.
Wordle 5 for me. Missed 4 by a letter
Yay 5!
Of course you did. Nice job!
Drought conditions for the USA are not looking favorable for 2026. I believe I read that over 50% of the mainland is currently experiencing drought. A 3-month drought map from the NWS Climate Prediction Center shown below (you might have to scroll up):
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php#:~:text=Based%20on%20the%20March%2DApril,removal%20and%20improvement%20are%20anticipated.
Thank you, TK. Up to 37 from 26
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 4
Awesome. Looks as as if the party is in car 4
Good job! Many 5s today, Of course I am stuck in the caboose yet again!!!
Thanks TK
Snow showers to kick off meteorological spring!
NWS Accumulation Map
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
So far I have counted 16 flakes.
Wordle 4
AND the SNOW has begun here. Coming down nicely.
Little darker band incoming.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
it MEANS business for as long as it is around. 🙂 🙂 🙂
It was around for about 20 min here and produced about 0.2 inch.
MODERATE SNOW. EVERYTHING is covered very well already.
First moderate band is through here – 0.2 inch so far.
Second moderate band is coming – smaller than the 1st one.
After that, we taper it off and it’s all done – west to east.
yup
Old man winter is coming around the final turn and headed for the barn.
The home stretch can be pretty lengthy, btw.
We are less than 1 month beyond the half-way point, and 19 days away from the Vernal Equinox, after which significant events can still occur for up to a month or more, though they become climatologically less likely with time.
Had a feeling that was coming.
You should have. It’s true every year, the magnitude of impact dependent on the pattern, of course. 🙂
Solid coating with a bit of lighter snow now.
Second moderate band is weakening…
Boston is beyond 50% done with this snow event.
Does that mean we are 70ish percent finished here?
That sounds about right. 🙂
Still snowing moderately here. Doesn’t appear to be ending anytime soon. ❄️
It will end according to the time-line I outlined in my discussion. For your area, early afternoon.
There are no surprises ongoing. 🙂
You have about 1 hour left before it’s over. Should run 15 to 30 min behind Boston.
In one of those bands right now. Heavy snow…big fat flakes. Pretty but not sticking all that much due to the temps.
Yes. We had a little room for temp drop with a dew point depression but not enough to chill things enough for easy accumulation outside of atop existing ice or snow cover. Any bare, especially darker surface acquired some heat yesterday.
Borderline moderate snow with the 2nd area here (first was definitely more notable), but I have a time lapse video set up facing west from the 3rd floor to capture the end of snow, visibility improvement, and clearing process, which is approaching from the west now in my area. Snow is done in Boston by about noon.
Snow depth (total snow on the ground) at Providence RI has gone from 40 inches Tuesday morning to 16 inches as of this morning.
The late February sun angle, drier air, and compaction did a drastic number on it.
Similar here.
Probably 25-30” deep after the storm down to 15” in the shady areas/north facing areas and maybe, as low as, 6” facing south.
Hey TK!!!!
I’m in Waltham this morning and you were right on the money my friend! I know you have praised the early performance of the new rrfs model but I saw you say you didn’t really trust it on this event when it had heavier totals than everything else. I know it got better this morning but you had no more than 1 inch forecast and we got half an inch at most here by the river in Waltham.
Nice job buddy!!! DOH!!!
Take care man!
Haha thanks!
Meteorology 101 really. In all the years I have done this, simple forecasts to complex forecasts, all the technology advances, better modeling than ever (sometimes debatable), the things that I use THE MOST, BY FAR, remain the basic lessons taught to me by my old school mentors when I was just starting out, refined over time, but never drastically altered. They work as well now as always, because they are great things to know!
Forever grateful for all of those that helped me. Having that does not make one infallible, but it keeps your mind sharp in application of meteorology and your mind open to learning more when things don’t go as expected. 🙂
Looks like the south shore might catch a little more. Then it’s outta here.
Pretty much finished here. Just in time to go to daughters for Christmas with my son and family……except sadly we have two who have some upset stomachs so…….. we could do a poll on when we actually celebrate Christmas
This might be the year to plan that “Christmas In July” party & bbq!
I hope everybody is feeling well soon!
You know what was fascinating to watch, but also very predictable?
At onset of snow, Boston’s temp was 38 and dew point was 20.
At end of snow, Boston’s temp is 32 and dew point is 31.
This is a perfect example of “moistening the column” and “evaporational cooling”.
Thanks for explaining that! I’m down to 31F and DP at 28F
Thanks, TK!
Thanks, TK!
Light snow and 33 degrees.
“March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb”
Bruce Cockburn, a Canadian singer-songwriter:
“Wondering Where The Lions Are”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JY__agG_eXc
I played the heck out of this song on college radio in the early 1980s.
I don’t know this song or the artist but really like the song. Thank you.
“Lovers in a Dangerous Time” is another great one from him (iirc 1983 or 84). The Canadian group Bare Naked Ladies had a minor hit with again in 1990.
Snow is done here. hard to say how much. A lot was melting as it landed. Somewhere between 1/2 inch to maybe an inch at most.
Something like that.
Snow has now ended here.
Right on schedule.
Since March has come in like a lion (sort of) the 31st will likely be a day at least devoid of precipitation, if not sunny.
The in-like-a-lion / out-like-a-lamb (and vice-versa) thing is nothing more than folklore and has no predictive value, whatsoever, beyond about a 50/50 chance which you can do by guessing. 🙂
Also, the saying does not refer to only March 1 & 31, but the first few days and last few days of the month. With the mid latitude climate we live in, the saying basically means nothing.
For a more global view of the notion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znFY7PYomEA
This is hysterical. I like the wildebeest and ant
Where did you dig that up. Hilarious. I Miss John Belushi!!
Thanks TK.
About a half inch of snow here in Coventry and the sun is now in and out with the temp back up to 35F. What has fallen has largely melted.
6z GFS brought winter back with a bang around mid month with cold returning from Canada and multiple shots of snow and ice. 12z came in a bit warmer with more ice and less snow but it is definitely picking up on a cold air damming signal
About 1/2 inch here too. And please mark a storm date of March 14 or 15 on your calendar. Christmas with my son is postponed today due to upset stomachs Next date is that weekend
Sorry to hear, hope they feel better soon.
12z Euro tries to deliver… cold with some flakes and close to something a little more…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026030112&fh=330&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
12z GFS is icy.
Hoping if we do get something that weekend , it is out of here by Sunday night the 15th as that is when we are returning from our ski trip to Utah. We are out there 3/11-15. Also hoping they pick up some more snow out there in the next week and a half. It had been a rough winter for them.
Yep. It’s a given 🙁
🙁
Thank you, Mark and Longshot.
I was just out. All pavements etc are just wet.
Snow on old snow was a good solid inch on top.
Up at a benefit for the camp my wife and daughters volunteer at.
It’s a hockey game involving Bruins alumni.
Some names I remember. Linesman, Hodge, Shoebottom. Trying his catch more names on jerseys.
Kenny Linseman was Brad Marchand in the 80s.
I think he was nicknamed the rat. Great player.
Ken Hodge, I remember well. Or as the coach would say
“Hodgey”
Boston (Logan) received 0.6” snowfall today. ❄️
Total seasonal to date: 61.5”
Departure from normal: +12.3” ❄️
Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station is scheduled for 9:56:40 p.m. EST (0256:40 UTC). This will be SpaceX’s 22nd mission of the year supporting its broadband internet satellite constellation in low Earth orbit.
I believe that I read that this launch could be visible along the East Coast. I am going to try to see this one tonight and take photos.
I am too young for a “Bucket List” 🙂 , but an in-person rocket launch in Florida would be on it. 🙂
That would be very cool. I never had one; but if I did, it’d be see northern lights.
34F.
Very bright moon out there!
Wow. It’s as if it’s painted up there.
It’s 5:45 and still light. This will be 6:45 next week.