DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)
The volatility of March will be on display over the next 5 days. Today, a back-door cold front is in the process of slicing across the region from northeast to southwest and will come to a stop this morning somewhere around southern RI / eastern CT, with the majority of the region spending the majority of today’s hours on the cool side with a northeast wind making it much cooler than yesterday’s late spring preview temperatures, while the cool-down is more modest in the small area that remains on the front’s warmer side. We’ll see both an increase in clouds from the west in response to an approaching trough, but as the day goes on, more ocean-formed stratus clouds will invade the sky at lower levels from northeast to southwest and a few patches of drizzle can occur in the NH Seacoast region and eastern MA from this low level maritime air flow. Tonight, the frontal boundary is going to be pushed back to the north and east in response to low pressure moving through the Great Lakes, as a stronger south to southwest air flow overtakes the region. Areas of rain showers will accompany this transition, and these will persist Thursday as that low’s cold front moves through the region from west to east during the day – creating an “upside-down” temperatures profile for the day – warmest in the morning, followed by a drop. The air incoming is cold enough that when a wave forms and moves up along the frontal boundary, we can expect to see a mix over to wet snow, with even some minor accumulation likely in portions of the region Thursday evening before clearing arrives from west to east. This chilly air mass will be in place on Friday, a day that starts with sun but ends up with clouds as the next disturbance heads our way via the Great Lakes. This low is going to pass to our north Friday night and early Saturday, so we’ll get a warm front / cold front combo. The warm front will produce a shield of snow and mixed precipitation, but the bulk of the steadiest should pass just to the north of the area, with the greatest chance to see it in northern MA and southern NH Friday late-day and evening. The cold front will swing through in the early hours of Saturday with rain and snow showers, followed by drier, but breezy weather during the day. Had enough quick change? Well, another low pressure system will approach our region from the west again during Sunday, again destined for a track to our north, dragging its warm front our way with more clouds and a chance of rain, which may start as mixed precipitation, as early as the late afternoon hours of Sunday, though the majority of that day will be precipitation-free.
TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Afternoon drizzle patches eastern coastal areas and a late-day rain shower possible western areas. Highs 45-52 except 53-60 western RI and eastern CT. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except SW up to 10 MPH western RI and eastern CT.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Occasional rain showers. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 53-60 western RI and eastern CT and rising to 53-60 elsewhere. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers mixing with or changing to wet snow later in the day from west to east. Highs 55-62 early, then falling from west to east into the 30s by the end of the day. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early including the chance of mix to wet snow with minor accumulation possible, then clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Late-day mix / snow possible favoring north central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with snow / mix / rain most likely in southern NH and northern MA and a few rain showers to the south. Lows 31-38, coldest southern NH / northern MA. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W with higher gusts overnight.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain and snow showers possible, then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 43-50. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Evening mix potential north and west of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)
Low pressure passing to our north produces a stronger southerly air flow but accompanied by abundant moisture with numerous to widespread rain showers expected for at least part of March 16, followed by a push of drier and colder air weather St. Pat’s Day on March 17 and fair, chilly weather continuing during the middle of next week before the next trough and low pressure brings unsettled weather with a precipitation chance for the day of the Vernal Equinox (10:46 a.m. EDT) March 20.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)
The early days of spring show signs of typical volatility with up and down temps and a couple periods of unsettled weather, the details of which will be sorted in the days ahead.
Good morning andcthank you TK
50 here
Ocean: 38
WORDLE: 6. PHEW!!!!!
You got it. Great work!!
Thanks TK !
I believe it, but still unbelievable that several days ago, you (TK) saw the push of cool air today, well before the models caught on. Kudos again !!
Wordle: 4, a surprise 4, because I didn’t have much after 3 and was just trying to get the few I had in the correct place and uncover something new. And it took. I’ll take it !! 🙂
NICE!!
Nice 4. May I join you please in the 4 car?
Thanks TK
Thanks Tk .
How is your wife doing?
Boston’s record high yesterday was 75!
No, it is now. It was 71. 🙂
Thank you, TK.
Thanks TK.
What a day yesterday, and great call about today with the back door front. Can we have more of yesterday, what a tease. Probably not until May do we see that again lol.
Re: Wordle
If someone plays a certain fairly common starting word, they will get today’s word in 2!!
I did not use that word. 🙂
I got Wordle in 3 today
We were at Hampton Beach yesterday. It was amazing – there was only very slight breeze.
Awesome!
Nice 3!!!
Wordle 5
Excellent.
Excellent from me also.
Thank you, TK. We are up to 44 from a 38 low.
44 chilly degrees here now. What a difference a day makes!!!
TK called this long ago!!! Great call!!!
I remember Pete having 61 for today and my telling my wife, NOPE , NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, it will be in the 40s!!!!
Thanks TK.
Also great call early on for the back door front!
Thanks, TK.
Wordle 4…
My body doesn’t know what to do with these temperature fluctuations. LOL
My body doesn’t know what to do with this time change (DST). UGH!!!
Nice 4. My body doesn’t give 2 craps. 🙂 I’d rather yesterday’s weather, but it is Spring so I can deal with today’s weather.
Wait until tomorrow evening!!!!
Nice four. And I agree re my body not adjusting
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
Lots going on ….
Low level, east and northeast flow, stratus flying in off the ocean in eastern Mass
Aloft …
Southwesterly flow of mild to warm air, come convective elements in northwestern New England
As TK has in his forecast, warm, humid air not far away and should create a mild to warm and humid (for March) overnight.
Open window potential overnight.
3KM NAM for tomorrow evening
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026031112&fh=37&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
total snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026031112&fh=43&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Coating to up to an inch. 🙂 Just what we want!!!!
Boo !!!!!!! Lol !!
I agree! But what are we to do. Just laugh as the coating or 1/2 inch or so will go POOF rather rapidly!!!! No big deal!!!
For sure 🙂
Thank you TK!
Wordle: a VERY lucky 3. Great job to everyone out there juggling letters in their minds.
Excellent 3!!!
Wow. Excellent Sue.
A little more sun than forecast, but the air source is chilly maritime, so not much of a difference in temps.
In fact, I have a feeling had the stratus been more solid by early morning, we’d bands seen a lot of upper 30s, which would have been a little colder than I had for the daytime temps today.
Wow we’re up to 48, actually a little better than I expected. I’ll take it all things considered.
down to 46.5
A troll must be impersonating JPD. Lately nothing but NEGATIVE snow comments. 😉
HUH??
When it gets to this time of year, I am DONE with the snow!
This time of year is STILL winter! 🙂 ❄️
9 days to go until spring, April 20.
Correction: March 20
yeah, so what? to me it is SPRING. Meteorological Spring starts 3/1.
I am DONE with snow, period. Bring on Spring!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
No imposter. JPD always does this. 🙂
He’s full on SNOW until either…
1) We’ve had enough big snow to satisfy him.
2) We haven’t had nearly enough snow but screw it, reboot and try again next winter!
3) March 1 arrives and it’s just simply “time to move on”!
Is this close to accurate, JP Dave? 🙂
100% I am ALL in on snow in Dec, Jan and Feb. After that, I am looking forward to fishing and the Mass Fish and Game doesn’t appear to be too fond of Walking though snow to stock the fish. They haven’t stocked anything yet this year and most years they have at least done some, like the ponds on the Cape and the South shore.
I keep looking, nothing yet.
As you can see from this map, nothing. If stocked those pinkish squares would be black.
https://ibb.co/2z2M0bn
I have caught fish in every month except March and December. January and February through the ice.
I generally start the 1st week in April. If all goes well, I may try late this month. I have not ice fished since high school, a LOOOOOOOOONG time ago, but regular fishing has been every year for some time now. I really enjoy it. Just being out in nature is soooo relaxing. I generally see wild life
such as a blue heron, Swans, musk rats, garter snakes and Northern water snakes among routine birds, chipmucks and squirrels etc. And oh yes, the beloved red-winged black bird and occasional frogs. I love frogs.
So, yes, I am ready. The snow Is GONE BABY GONE HERE!!! May it be GOOD-BYE till next year!!!!
55 here
Thanks TK! What a pleasant day it has turned out to be on the South Coast. About 15 degrees warmer than Boston. A lot better than yesterday evening when it was 39 right on the water.
Northeast wind on the South Coast is warmer than a southwest wind in late winter, unless the air mass is particularly cold, which this one is not. It’s just maritime polar in modified form.
Was just outside for a walk. Felt quite chilly with that northeast wind here. Nothing remotely close to yesterday.
BUT, the sun is still out, at least here, and that makes a huge difference this time of year. 🙂
Still ONLY 46 here, but is is beautiful out!!! I don’t need 75 this time of year. 40s and 50s are fine with me. 🙂
No real sun here. Just barely peaking through the clouds. No blue sky at all.
That would be because you’re closer to the South Shore, versus the South Coast. Definitely more of a chill even up here several miles inland over yesterday’s very warm land breeze!
I believe we just missed out on a couple of additional “potential” blizzards which could have put SNE into triple digit seasonal snowfall.
Instead of another “2015” it was just another well above normal snowfall season (62.5”). ❄️
Compared to the last 3 years, this was a Colossal SNOW YEAR!!!!!
The near-misses are more frequent than the direct hits, for any location, to be honest. We don’t have much of a way of knowing how much snow would have fallen had the storm tracks of a couple systems been a little different. It could have result from a much different synoptic pattern.
This is why I don’t really believe in “missed opportunities”. There is really no such things. We can model the weather, i.e., create simulations, all we want. There’s only ONE actual “solution”, which is not even a solution. It’s the natural outcome. Anything else is just a made-up version, though we hope in modeling we’re making up a realistic simulation.
There was at least one “near miss” in which we were all asking the question: “Where are we going to put it (snow) all??”
Followed by a huge sigh of relief from most.
Can’t win em all. We had 2 Hefty snow storms. Not too shabby.
Sun is out now with some blue sky.
I sat outside out of the breeze for a couple of hours slight sunburn on my face. I’m enjoying the mid September Sun angle. Cooling off now near TF Greene.
CPC continues to advertise the theme of below normal temps 6-10 days, 8-14 days, 3-4 weeks.
I continue to agree.
As well as near normal precipitation.
Fog now rolling in here.
We topped at 62 and are down to 55. We had a quick shower, just enough to make it wet so I’ll pass on sitting out tonight.