DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
Low pressure will impact our weather over the next 3 days as it travels northeastward from the Midwest through the Great Lakes and across eastern Canada. The preliminary impact comes today in the form of cloudiness as a warm front crosses the region, but with not enough moisture to produce any precipitation. The main impact comes from pre-dawn Monday through late Monday evening as we get into a stronger southerly air flow with abundant subtropical moisture ahead of the storm’s cold front, providing a stronger, gusty wind and waves of rain showers, some of which can be on the heavier side. Isolated damaging wind gusts (and some resultant power outages) are possible. Rainfall combined with melting snowfall from the mountains coming down the streams and rivers can cause some flooding on those (which can persist into mid week, especially larger rivers). Thunderstorms can occur as the cold front sweeps eastward through the region, putting an end of the rain portion of the event later Monday night. Behind this system we’ll still feel its impact on Tuesday in the form of a gusty wind and colder weather, though it will be a dry St. Patrick’s Day. Chilly and dry weather is expected Wednesday as high pressure moves in. Some clouds return Thursday as milder air makes an attempt to return on the back side of high pressure and ahead of low pressure and a warm front moving out way from the Great Lakes.
TODAY: Limited sun / lots of clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers arrive overnight and become widespread. Temperatures steady in 40s South Coast but rise to 50s elsewhere. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts overnight.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers until mid morning and returning again mid to late afternoon with just scattered rain showers between those times. Highs 57-64 except 50-57 South Coast. Wind S 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-50 MPH (possibly higher in some higher elevation and coastal areas).
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms, ending from west to east overnight. Breaking clouds toward dawn from west to east. Lows 32-39. Wind S 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest in higher elevations, shifting to W from west to east late evening and overnight, diminishing slightly.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)
The Vernal Equinox occurs at 10:46 a.m. on Friday March 20, marking the beginning of spring. Unsettled weather is possible that day and into the weekend with a couple of disturbances / low pressure areas passing by, though major storminess is not indicated. This may wind up with a shot of cold air to end next weekend. We watch for the next storm system that may impact the region toward the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)
Some up and down temps indicated for late month with another storm system potentially about mid period with a precipitation threat. A lot of detail to work out in this medium range forecast with uncertainty and seasonal volatility as factors.
For sports fans, the 3rd hockey gold medal game in under 1 month between teams from the USA and Canada will take place at 11 a.m. EDT this morning, televised on NBC. This one is the finale of the Paralympics sled hockey competition. If you tune into the game, watch for USA standout Declan Farmer, who wears #16.
Thanks TK. RRFSA has had some big swings in total precip from run to run.
I saw some of the inconsistency there.
I’m curious to see where version 2 lands, which is the one they are actively tweaking.
Thank you TK!
Wordle: luck was on my side today, got it in 2.
Thank you TK. I thought yesterday’s wind took quite some time to die down. Not that I had any set expectation.
I figured it would take quite a bit of time into the evening to really diminish.
Thanks!
Wordle 5. Another frustrating one with 3 at 2 but too many options.
You got it. Way too many options.
Good morning and thank yiu TK.
36 after low of 30
Ocean: 38
WORDLE: 4
thought I had it in 2 and 3.
HAD 1 in position and 3 out of position with 1st guess. Just too many choices for today’s word.
Great getting it. More choices with this than i think I’ve ever seen.
Wordle 4 for me. I was really lucky with my second guess.
Great. Welcome to the 4 car.
🙂
Thanks TK
Thank you, TK! We are up to 32 from a low of 27
My second Wordle guess was very lucky. I had everything right except for the first letter. I got it in 3.
Excellent!!!
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 3
Awesome!!!
Thanks !
Awesome 3s, Tom and SClarke.
Thanks TK. What is your forecast for peak gusts and rain amount for the Natick area? I am digging out the sump pump exit hose just in case.
Max 1.50 inch. Probably less most areas. An isolated swath above that is possible. This is not a major rainstorm.
Wind: 35-50 max gusts. Higher ones reserved for places like Blue Hill and open coastal areas.
Nothing really to write home about with this system – just kind of a typical strong late winter system.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.png
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_torn.png
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_wind.png
For tomorrow
Potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak tomorrow for parts of the Mid Atlantic which COULD include a strong tornado.
How was the atmosphere yesterday in Madison Square Garden?
I did watch a bit of the game, there was so much to choose from on TV.
Thanks Tk
The only thing that gives me some concern about the wind aspect of this next event is its duration.
Yes, big element of no extra weight on the trees with no wet snow element.
Yes, the cold south coast water temps hopefully will hold boundary layer temps in check to cause less mixing.
But, there is a long window of gusts to 40 mph before the shorter window of gusts to 60 mph arrive and just that longer duration of gusts to wear down what the weaker, less healthy trees can take.
Tom it was loudest I have heard it for a Big East Championship game. I have been to multiple Big East Championship games in Madison Square Garden. There were more St. John’s fans than UCONN fans.
Oops, I posted as a reply above but meant to post it as a new comment. That is what I get for reading while in church. 🙂
Wordle: 2
Amazing 2!!
Wordle 4…
Thanks as always tk.
These winds are just awful. Once the snow melted away in the back and side yards there was so many branches, twigs, tree debris. No doubt that the winds today and tomorrow are going to add to the yard cleanup. I want to get rid of the tree because it is a threat to the house – I just don’t have the money to get rid of it yet.