DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
Intensifying low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes and across eastern Canada today and tonight. We’ll have a stormy Monday to start the week as a result. The storm’s warm front will move through our region early this morning with a batch of rain, some of it heavy, that will then taper to scattered rain showers later in the morning into this afternoon in the warm sector of the storm system, when we’ll see stronger, gusty southerly winds. A couple areas of widespread rain showers and possible embedded thunderstorms will cross the region from late this afternoon well into tonight prior to the storm’s cold front crossing the region from west to east, which will put an end to the rainfall in the pre-dawn hours, possibly just after Tuesday’s dawn on Cape Cod. As the storm continues into Atlantic Canada, our weather for St. Patrick’s Day will feature a gusty westerly wind, colder air, and generally dry weather, although a secondary cold front and some low level moisture from the Great Lakes can trigger a few snow showers during the day. The cold air delivered by this front will make Tuesday night feel a bit like mid winter, especially with windy conditions in the evening. High pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday, with fair and chilly weather but less wind. As this high slips eastward off the coast later in the week, we’ll see a temperature moderation but also more cloudiness at times, especially by Friday as a disturbance passes by to our northwest. This can trigger a couple rain showers in the area to mark the start of spring. The vernal equinox occurs at 10:46 a.m. EDT on Friday.
TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers until mid morning and returning again mid to late afternoon with just scattered rain showers between those times. Highs 57-64 except 50-57 South Coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH early, then S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms, ending from west to east overnight. Breaking clouds toward dawn from west to east. Lows 35-42. Wind S 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH, with isolated gusts 55-65 MPH possible east of I-95, favoring southeastern MA and RI, shifting to W from west to east late evening and overnight, diminishing slightly.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)
March 21-22 weekend looks unsettled with a colder trend and a chance of some rain / mix / snow, but no major storminess indicated. Details TBD. Trend is for a drier, chilly pattern next week.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)
Precipitation threat early period then another surge of cold air follows with the overall pattern still chilly and on the drier side late month.
https://stormhq.blog/2026/03/16/weekly-outlook-march-16-22-2026/
Thanks TK. .45 in the rain gauge already and pouring right now.
Good morning and thanks tk. Glad I did my run last night. It is absolutely pouring out and the wind is strong!
(Wordle 5)
Excellent 5!!
Good morning and thank you TK
43 here
Ocean: 39
WORDLE; FAIL
1st guess 3 letter out of position.’ next 5 valid words with 1st 3 letters correct. EVERY possible word Except the correct one. Go figure!!!
Wordle hates me!!!!
I was doing letter substitution and failed before reaching the letter that would have given me the correct word. For whatever reason , I Never saw the correct word. Should have but did not.
Darn. You’ve been on a great streak. You have me curious. I’m Not sure what you mean by letter substitution
Ok’ so I had the 1st 3 letters correct. So I start with the 1st available letter as 4 and add each remaining letter as the 5th’ ri se repeat with next available letter till all are exhausted. I pulled a valid word that I didn’t even think was real before I could get to the letter that would have solved it.
Often times I “SEE” the word during g this process.
Sorry !
Getting my lesson finished up here, will try Wordle later.
Thanks TK !
Torrential !!
The short range models had this initial batch of rain modeled very well !
Thanks TK
Haven’t rain like this for a while. Nice cleaning of the salt and crap everywhere but hoping no serious issues for folks.
I missed the train too, JpDave 🙂
Misery loves company.
There will be at least a three and perhaps more. Wouldn’t be surprised by a 2.
Ugh. So sorry for both of you 🙁
Up to .75 now.
Thanks TK
Holding a good thought for the people in the Mid Atlantic region today. Strong long tracked tornadoes possible for that area.
JP Dave you are prescient! On vacation, rainy day, wordle in 2!! Now out to breakfast.
New starter word got me two in correct and two more out of place. Finished with a 2. Is that a birdie or an eagle? Suggested rank…
1-hole in one
2-eagle
3 birdie
4 par
5 bogey
6 double bogey
????
Depends upon the par of the hole or in this case word.
I’ll say par was 4 and you got an EAGLE!!!!
Excellent job!!!!
Great job!
Mixing golf and train analogies should be fun. I don’t play, but I’ve heard a hole-in-one called an “ace.” I googled losing the ball and it might be “out of bounds.” Golfers, feel free to correct me.
Exceptional. While I don’t golf, Mac was a scratch golfer for most of his years. I’d say you had an eagle also.
Par for the course for me with a Wordle 4
?????? = missed the cut and we are caddying 🙂
I think maybe we are in the woods looking for lost golf balls!!!!
Half an inch of rain here so far.
I got Wordle in 3.
And there is my 3!!!! Nice work!!!
BIRDIE!!
Tom and I had what you would call in golf a PICK UP!!!! Or as some would say an automatic 10.
LOL, yes !
Also excellent.
Thanks TK.
HIGH WIND WARNING
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BOX&wwa=high%20wind%20warning
Let’s see how this goes.
Barely any wind here…… yet
Thank you, TK. We are up to 49 from
35
0.70 in the bucket.
Up to 50 here. 🙂
Virtually no wind at all here, yet.
Thank you TK!
It was a par 4 for me on Wordle.
Great!!
Yay. I have company.
Double bogie Phew here… just made the caboose
I would have loved a double bogey today.
Thanks, TK!
55 degrees with 1.03″ in the bucket already.
Norton NWS identifies 60F temp as the temp that mixing really maximizes.
Well, its approaching 50F and the 850 mb jet is a shadow of what it will be overnight and I already see gusts of 40 mph in Nantucket and 36 mph at Otis Air force bay in Falmouth.
So, this has my attention already. And we are probably 12 hrs out from the max wind gusts that can last around 6 hrs.
Shhh
I am wishing it away.
Wishing with you. Soft soil and winds are a bad combination
Agree/thinking the same as the both of you.
I am definitely on this team also. I enjoy having power.
Wonder what happened to my enjoying a power failure.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2026031612&fh=16&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2026031612&fh=16&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=lgtden&rh=2026031612&fh=16&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sim_ir&rh=2026031612&fh=16&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026031612&fh=16&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Just because the HRRR simulates this doesn’t mean it will happen like this.
I think the 850 mb (85 kt) low level jet is spot on.
What makes me a bit nervous is the convective elements simulated into it. (see the attached simulated IR satellite and lightning density). And temps near 60F.
I find in similar past cases, the convection doesn’t seem to overlap is well as this is showing. If there is that much scattered convection, that would make me worried.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=925wh&rh=2026031612&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The NAM has 78 knots over Boston and 80-83 knots over the entire south shore at 925 !!!!!!!!! mb.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=850wh&rh=2026031612&fh=17&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The RRFS A is more subdued, thank goodness, running 74-80 kts at 850 mb
Not a fan of very high winds, especially late at night.
Right there with you.
Interestingly, “bogie” is a railroad term. It’s sometimes spelled “bogey” like the golf term.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bogie
There’s even a “bogie caboose”! But probably not a “double bogie caboose”. 🙂
This is great! Thanks
Cool info. Tx
Good grief that is one ugly looking map down south
https://ibb.co/FkhzfK47
I was watching Fox Weather last night and they were reporting that some place in the Midwest, I think it was Bloomington IN, had a Severe Thunderstorm Warning inside of a Blizzard Warning. Wild!
The 12Z HRRR has a wind gust of 63 knots (72.4 mph) at 3 am (7z) over our area.
YIKES! One consolation: Often times the HRRR over cooks these winds. Let us hope.
I am wondering if all of the trees that were blown in one direction by the blizzard three weeks ago will be blown in the opposite direction by tonight’s storm.
Sun poking through now.
And wind picking up
Will we have a tornado watch? They seem to be traveling north with the system.
Highly UNLIKELY
Latest from the SPC
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.png
Thank goodness. And thank you.
Am back home. Errands were finished before rain returned. Wind starting to pick up intermittently
In mendon. Sky just opened up
61 here.
Thanks, TK.
I was thinking of you earlier. The red wing blackbirds are back
Yes, they are, along with their shrill call.
It’s sure recognizable. And they torment the smaller birds at my feeders
Snow in parts of Alabama with highs only in the upper 30s and lows in the upper 20s. Quite an elongated trough.
Very amplified, and somewhat like other late winter / early spring events of our past.
TK, when do you think the worst of the wind will be? HRRR gives me about .75 of rain on the 18z run from here on out.
The 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. window is when the strongest wind gusts will be.
Ok thanks. Still thinking gusts wont exceed 55mph for my area?
How is your basement?
Water level in sump pump has risen a little again in the hole but not enough for it to go off yet after this mornings rain. I had to have it replaced last week.
Probably not, but cannot completely rule it out.
I still like 45-55 peak.
Thank you and Ugh. As has been said, not a fan of high winds while sleeping
I should clarify. I love the sound of wind. If it were not wet everywhere, I’d be on the deck enjoying the feel of wind. It just makes me nervous if it’s destructive in the dark hours
Vicki, though I like the red on black coloring that red-winged blackbirds have, I am not a fan of their shrill call or their aggressive behavior. They’re a bit like Blue Jays in this regard.
By the way, I’ve always been fascinated by the fact that birds evolved from dinosaurs. So, when I see them flying around, I imagine they’re little dinosaurs.
I agree. Blue jays too.
Green Bay, WI has gotten a nice snowstorm: https://x.com/AaronRigsbyOSC/status/2033527523330470195
It’s really cranking already.
It’s very warm, above 60F.
Even without the weight of snow on the trees, I don’t know. It’s impressive already and it’s not raining at all.
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KGHG&hours=72
I haven’t lost my mind, most recent ob is a gust to 49mph.
Crap, we going to get to 70 mph?
2026 spotter class schedule for SNE has been announced…
https://scontent-bos5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/653394984_1251449793826681_615256998487417616_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=13d280&_nc_ohc=mnVoH4Jn8FUQ7kNvwGAZspG&_nc_oc=Adm6OxSbfNiZuTSHq6mJ4gL90umv6Bdmj_4o12zZQZz08Pp9WFWzj2cP1-k3vPiv1m0&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-bos5-1.xx&_nc_gid=9C1BJZca_kMqwSXkN7fmxw&_nc_ss=8&oh=00_AfwCbkd1WB1RrjGQRRYk-2L5OAT43li1FRdvlAq36oiiHQ&oe=69BE4CF0
Awesome. They have an online course now also.
It’s kind of neat, along the immediate south coast, where it’s in the upper 40s and more stable, the gusts are around 30mph
But come away from the influence of water and into areas that are running 57-63F and there are much higher gusts already.
We’re up to 60F and the wind is becoming gusty.
57F and winds picking up.
60 here and winds active
Down to 56 here. 1.01 of rain so far.