DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)
From the NWS, there are flood warnings for minor flooding through today on the following rivers in MA and RI:
Sudbury River at Saxonville affecting Middlesex County.
Pawtuxet River at Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties.
Taunton River Near Bridgewater affecting Plymouth and Bristol
Counties.
Wood River at Hope Valley affecting Washington County.
The rain and strong wind gusts from the storm are behind us as the low pressure area responsible for it moves through eastern Canada as a large, strong storm system. This keeps us in its circulation today and we may see a sprinkle of rain this morning and a few snow flurries this afternoon as colder air moves in behind the storm. High pressure builds in tonight and Wednesday with fair, chilly, but more tranquil conditions. The high slides to the east Thursday, a day which will feature some sun, more clouds, and slightly milder air. A weak disturbance passing by on Friday morning may produce a few snow flurries for the final hours of winter, before the vernal equinox at 10:46 a.m. EDT marks the start of spring. The rest of Friday will feature dry weather but may carry quite a bit of cloudiness. Another disturbance moves our way via the Great Lakes on Saturday, and its warm front may produce some early-day rainfall, based on current expecting timing. The passage of the warm front would allow a milder afternoon that day.
TODAY: Lots of clouds early including the chance of a brief sprinkle of rain from west to east into mid morning, then a sun / cloud mix with a slight chance of a passing light snow shower from midday on. Temperatures decline from the 40s to the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A brief snow shower possible early. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)
A cold front moves through Sunday with lots of clouds, maybe some rain showers, and a falling temps. Watching one disturbance for potential precipitation later March 24 or March 25, otherwise a generally dry and chilly late March / early spring regime is expected for the balance of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)
Watching an early to mid period precipitation potential in an otherwise mostly dry, chilly weather pattern to wrap up the month of March.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 3
I believe the Marshfield Airport had a max gust of 63 mph somewhere in the 1-3 am time frame.
Trees down around town and one elementary school without power, but, thankfully, we are pushing ahead with the school day. Some large trees down around various parts of town, I saw 2 and my colleague says there are multiple down, in the roadway, from her approach to school.
So, it will be a chaotic attendance take this morning, as we are sure the busses will be understandably late.
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KGHG&hours=72
3:15 am
Nice 3
Very nice 3
Trees down in Sutton Also.
Good morning and thank you TK
44 here now
Ocean: 38
WORDLE: 3
Was NOT impressed with the wind here, but it looks like it was pretty bad in other locations.
Nice, I see we are in the 3 car. Lets see who joins us or gets in the 1/2 car.
When we get a 3′ everyone else does or even better.
So. Yes ar least a 2 is coming.
So true ! 🙂
4 for me.
With a few exceptions, I’m spending most of my time in the 4 car.
4 is good!
🙂
Wow two 3s. Awesome
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.fcst.png
I think around 2-3 days ago, I posted these and both were suggesting more negative AO and NAO.
However, a little less so today at the end of their forecast period.
Thus must be why, in the last 24-48 hrs, the long range on the global models show systems tracking further north than just a couple days ago.
Good !!!!!!!!!!
Yes!!!
Prior to yesterday/last night our snow was gone,but there were
some remnant snow piles still kicking around. Today, they are totally gone!
Thank you, TK
We are down to 37 from a high of 60
1.56 is our rain total.
Oops. Sorry. Didn’t mean to tag my comment to yours.
Thank you TK!
Wordle: Looks like a heck of party forming in car 3. Permission to board please.
Of course!
Yay, Sue!!
Welcome Sue ! And you too, Vicki 🙂
https://www.weather.gov/images/psr/WxStory/WeatherStory1.png
Nothing like smashing record highs by 6-10F
Great Wordle scores today!
I got 4 and will be riding with Vicki in the Par-Car. 🙂
Good 4. PAR_CAR, good one!!!
Is that the same as the PARLOR Car?
Awesome. I was feeling lonely.
Thanks TK
Another Wordle 3….
My goodness. The 3 car is hopping. Well done
excellent
I’m in the parlor car with Vicki and Sue. St least the company is good!
Good 4
Sorry…SClsrke in 4!
Awesome. Welcome.
We lived a half mile up the street from the Sudbury in saxonville. It had all sorts of flood prevention installed. I suspect Pelham island in Sudbury toward Wayland center is flooded
Forecasts for rain amount, timing, top wind gusts, and temps all verified to my satisfaction.
No surprises occurred.
The storm system largely UNDER performed many gloom and doom forecasts for the East Coast, which I did not really agree with. In spite of factors in favor of severe weather there were significant factors against it which seemed to be largely ignored, but should not have been.
That wind overnight certainly did NOT UNDER perform!!!
It took me forever to get to sleep as the wind was HOWLING to say the least!
It was loud for sure. And damaging. Many trees down in this area. Not that it surprises me since Mother Nature likes to thin out this area
As I stated, everything worked out as expected here.
What I was referring to when I mentioned underperformance was the severe weather along the East Coast, and that is most definitely true.
When I was looking at the situation, I didn’t see it looking as dire as many others did but since I only forecast for this area, I didn’t really mention it. I did talk about it behind the scenes with some of my colleagues.
Anywayway, I wasn’t going to step on the toes of anybody else’s forecast. I did not think the East Coast was in for a big severe weather outbreak and they did not have one.
Wordle 3 as well.
Thanks tk!!!
I was awake at 230am last night. The wind was insane sounding. I was checking the mema outage maps at the time and it peaked close to 50k. It’s down to 33k without power now.
Welcome to the 3 car! Well done
Highest reported winds. These are “reported” which does not necessarily translate to “official.”
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS
As for the storm’s performance, I would say that it 1) performed as expected relative to TK’s forecast and 2) underperformed relative to many TV met forecasts.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=psw&band=09&length=24
Pretty good 500 mb ridge for July and August.
Insane for March.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=psw&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
Here’s the visible.
Not good to come out of winter with this little a snow pack.
I wonder though, if something doesn’t majorly change if this implies a more moderate summer for us, because the pattern may be headed for massive ridge out west and a trof or general trofiness in the eastern US ???????