DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

Our weather this week as we head out of March and into April will be determined by a boundary between lingering cold to our north and much warmer weather to our south – typical of springtime. We start with the boundary heading north of our area today with a continued warming trend with a southwest wind. This of course does produce a cooling effect where the wind comes off the water near the South Coast. Fair weather is expected today, but there will be more cloud cover than we saw yesterday. Additionally, the dry weather, low humidity, and a gusty breeze result in elevated brush fire potential today. Use caution. Tuesday, things become a little more complex. We start out on the “mild” side of the boundary, but just enough high pressure in eastern Canada will drive it southward enough so that we see a back-door cold front come through southeastern NH into at east northeastern MA. At the same time, a disturbance from the west interacting with the frontal boundary will produce some rain shower activity in the region. After this, low pressure travels through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada and drags the boundary back to the northeast, but as the low pressure area progresses, its cold front will then sweep across our region from northwest to southeast during Wednesday. This front’s cloudiness and eventual rain shower activity can put a cap on the high temperatures for Wednesday, keeping them from reaching full potential. Once that front goes by, it won’t get far, and will be hanging out just to our south on Thursday. Onshore (northeasterly) flow will keep us much cooler and there can be some drizzle. A period of rain at night results from the front’s attempt to move back to the northeast as a warm front, ahead of yet another low pressure system approaching. This is a very uncertain forecast, as our guidance varies from a colder solution with low pressure passing near or just to the south to a warmer solution with a further north track on the low, dragging the front back through for a warmer Friday. I’m leaning toward the cooler solution at this point still, but right now it does look like any steadier precipitation would hold off until late day or nighttime, which has implications on whether or not the Red Sox can play their scheduled home opener that afternoon.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / partial sun. Highs 47-54 Cape / Islands / immediate South Coast, 54-61 MA South Shore, interior southern RI and southeastern CT, 61-68 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic rain showers, particularly morning and midday. Highs 51-58 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere, but may drop through the 50s southeastern NH and northeastern to east central MA by late-day. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, possibly shifting to N and NE from southeastern NH to east central MA during the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog in southeastern NH and eastern MA during the evening. Lows 42-49 southern NH and northeastern MA but may rise slightly overnight, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly SW except NE to E in southeastern NH and eastern MA during the evening.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Midday and afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 52-59 South Coast, 59-66 just inland from South Coast through MA South Shore, 66-73 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers evening, ending overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Temperatures steady 42-49. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57 (may stay cooler eastern coastal areas / may end up warmer over interior locations). Chance of rain showers late-day or evening. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S or SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)

Cooler April 4, lots of clouds, possibly a rain shower or patchy drizzle. Cool and cloudy start to April 5 then a sun / cloud mix with a warm-up (except still cool South Coast / Cape Cod), but watch for late-day showers / t-storms west to east as a trough and frontal system sweep through the region. Cooler, mainly dry early to middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)

Trend is fair, milder start, some unsettled weather, then a shift back to cooler after that, but low confidence and any details are not possible this far in advance.