DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)
A temperature roller-coaster and unsettled weather pattern will be ours for the first 5 days of April, through the first weekend of the month (which includes Easter for those who celebrate it this Sunday). Overnight showers have moved offshore leaving some breaks of sun to start the day in eastern areas. Another batch of showers travels into eastern CT and RI, fading while moving through southeastern MA as the morning goes along. The cooler marine air that invaded in the wake of a back-door cold front over much of the region yesterday will get pushed quickly out by a short-lived surge of southwesterly wind ahead of another cold front that trails low pressure moving by to our north during the day today. This will trigger additional scattered showers which will favor areas near and south of I-90 during the second half of the afternoon as we see a wind shift and the start of the next surge of cooling as the front passes by. This front takes up residence, temporarily, to our south tonight through Thursday night. A wave of low pressure moving along it will produce periodic rain later tonight into Thursday morning, especially south of the Route 2 corridor, after which we’ll just be left with a grey sky overcast and below normal temperatures from a solid delivery of maritime polar air with the help of high pressure in eastern Canada. However, this doesn’t last too long either as the frontal boundary lifts back to the north and east on Friday, a day that starts like Thursday ends, but turns brighter and eventually warmer as the boundary moves through from southwest to northeast. I now expect Friday to be generally a rain-free day, which is good news for the Red Sox home opener that afternoon, regardless of any temperature antics occurring. And speaking of that, guess what comes back on Saturday? Yup, the frontal boundary, again, this time as a back-door cold front to switch our wind back to the north and east and bring the cool marine air back. This process may be accompanied by a few showers, but I do expect the majority of Saturday to be rain-free. And you probably have guessed by now that Sunday’s weather, like today’s, will likely feature a surge of warmer air pushing the boundary back yet again to the northeast and returning warmer air yet again – timing to be worked out. Later that day and that evening, expect a more widespread band of showers and possible thunderstorms as low pressure passing to our north drags a cold front through. Now, catch your breath a moment and then check out the detailed forecast…
TODAY: Limited sun / lots of clouds. Showers into mid morning eastern CT to Cape Cod, diminishing. Later-day showers likely, favoring areas from I-90 southward. Highs range from near 50 Cape Cod to 65-72 interior eastern CT through interior MA and southern NH occurring by midday, with a quick cool-down southern NH and northern to east central MA toward the end of the day. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to N and NE from north to south from midday on.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 36-43. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Temperatures steady 42-49. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55 Cape Cod and immediate South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere but may not occur until later in the day. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S or SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 43-50. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 52-59 in the morning, then lowering temperatures. Wind variable becoming NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Lows 37-44. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start, then a sun / cloud mix before heavier clouds arrive late-day with showers by evening. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 southeastern MA (South Shore), 63-70 elsewhere. Wind calm becoming SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)
Quieter week next week. Northwest flow, chilly and dry April 6. High pressure moves across the region with fair, cool followed by milder weather April 7-9. Watch for a cool-down via back-door cold front at the end of the period being more likely than continued fair and mild weather, but long way to go before we know this for sure.
DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)
Up and down temperatures, a couple of unsettled periods of weather during this time frame heading toward mid month.
Thanks TK !
Really neat with this front going back and forth.
Very mild yesterday the early afternoon, very chilly and raw with fog last night and waking back up in the warm sector again, mild and humid.
Good morning and thank you TK
52 here after low of 41
Ocean: 41
WORDLE: 5
Welcome to April. Too much crap going on in the world for any Aoril Fools jokes.
Oops: Ocean still 40, not 41. Typo on my part.
5 again for me also 🙂
Guess we need more beverages.
I’ll bring some and snacks
Wordle 5
Sign me up for the 5-car too!
I haven’t tried yet but something inside me is telling me to go for the 5. 🙂
What say we. Pizza, Chinese, or snacks????
Chinese. Haven’t had that in awhile!!!
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KGHG&hours=72
If anyone is interested, you will see the various changes in front location by temp change over the past 36 hrs.
Thank you, TK. 54 now, up from a 42 low
Ya gotta have a look at the Mt. Washington site, and give it a try (Enter ? for help):
https://mountwashington.org/
Shoot – it looks like it’s gone already!
It was a classic command-line Bulletin Board System (BBS) interface to the weather data.
5 car rules today. I thought I did poorly, but for today, perhaps not.
Let’s PARTY!!!!
Thanks, TK.
Also, thanks for the reminder that the snow event I remembered from late March 1998 was not just a few days before the rather extreme warm-up, but instead a week or so, I think memory has a way of compressing things.
Hopefully, for Sunday, the current idea of us being in the warm sector of this frontal boundary will hold.
With our daughters now adults, I suppose it would matter a little less if it were chilly, but I just recall how many fun !!, but raw, cold Easter Egg hunts we did and for those celebrating and having young ones, it would be nice if the egg hunt on Sunday were in very comfortable temps, like those we have this morning.
Agree. My grands range in ages but are still young enough to enjoy. Its possible I may too 😉
wouldn’t matter
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026040112&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Tomorrow, on the other hand, mid 30s at 18z, wind off the ocean, drizzle, fog ….. DREADFUL !!!!
60 here now.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
Thanks TK! So much going on above us. Great detailed forecast. One question: is it the cold air that has to move for the warm air to come in? Or does the warm air push the old air out? My understanding of the physics (which I avoided in high school) is that the cold air has to retreat for the warm air to surge,,..just curious.
I’m not sure if I have the full or correct answer
Warmer air has an easier time riding up and over colder, more dense air.
Tomorrow may be the case where the summit of Mt Washington may be 40F and low elevation spots in eastern Mass are 35F-38F. There may be a spot around 3,000 to 5,000 ft on the Mt Washington Auto Road tomorrow that is running 45F to 55F, while at the base, its in the 30s.
Then, to move this wavy front, I believe it becomes about the pressure gradient. If there is a wave of low pressure headed our way and it tracks over or north of us, it does give the front a chance to move northward.
Once that low passes and/or, higher pressure of some kind builds to our north, you can bet that front is headed south, if not charging south.
I am pretty sure the sfc maps are showing a bubble of high pressure moving north of ME tomorrow and that is why it will be so chilly tomorrow.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026040100&fh=42&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Tomorrow.
Yes, its pretty far north, but its strong, 1042 mb and its sprawling enough at low levels to send the cold into southern New England tomorrow.
At the same time, the next wave is taking shape over the Great Lakes, will head east northeastward and that gives the milder air a chance to return Friday.