DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)
More classic springtime weather in our region. Today, we find a warm air mass has arrived here as we’ll have a southwesterly air flow – in general. But that immediately comes with caveats here in the spring. As previously (many times) mentioned, this wind flow off the water south of New England keeps the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands cooler than the rest of the region. Today, we also can see a notable sea breeze on the MA North Shore to the NH Seacoast (lesser chance on the MA South Shore). This will be reflected in today’s temperature forecast below. While the temperature antics are ongoing, a disturbance approaching from the west northwest can trigger showers and thunderstorms of the scattered to clustered variety that may move into and across parts of our region starting later this afternoon with a trend of fading and dissipating as they head further east and south, but keep an eye out for at least a quick shower, maybe a downpour and some thunder – highest chance of the latter being north central MA into southern NH. Wednesday is a “fun” day in that we’ll be watching the front trailing behind the departing disturbance to orient itself as a back-door cold front with the help of high pressure to the north. Short range guidance has been wavering around on the timing of this feature, but has hinted that it will make a pretty significant advance southwestward by sometime Wednesday night. With a little lingering uncertainty on exact timing, I’ll leave my forecast for Wednesday’s temperatures as previously written and make any necessary adjustments on the next update. For weather, we’ll see a sun / cloud mix with a shower chance and even low chance of a pop up thunderstorm. We’ll watch for a deck of low stratus clouds to accompany the wind shift to northeast associated with the back door cold front – again timing a little up in the air on this, and it may only make limited progress into southeastern NH and eastern MA by day’s end. If this front behaves as I expect, it will sit to our southwest by Thursday morning, and the latest indications are that it will be held at bay from moving back as a warm front that day by “just enough” eastern Canadian high pressure. This would result in a cool, mostly cloudy day with patchy drizzle and a few showers around. There could be a little more rainfall especially later on once that front starts to receive a boot from low pressure moving into the Great Lakes along with added moisture. While the Friday forecast is a little lower confidence, my current idea is that the front will make its way back across the region as a warm front, with Friday’s high temps dependent on how much sun can break out between that front’s passage and the approach of a trough and a cold front as low pressure passes to the north. These features will also be the triggers of additional showers and thunderstorms which we’ll have to keep an eye out for that day – though they may hold off until later day or nighttime. Looking ahead to the start of the weekend – I expect that system to pull through the region and introduce a shot of cooler air for Saturday, along with a gusty breeze. A slower exit could result in Saturday starting grey and damp, while a quick exit would dry it out sooner and leave the day with a sun / cloud mix. Appropriate tweaks to come.
TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. A late-day shower or thunderstorm chance north central to northeastern MA and southern NH. Highs 56-63 South Coast, 64-71 MA South Shore and Cape Ann, 72-79 elsewhere. Temps can fall sharply to 50s NH Seacoast and MA North Shore midday / afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, potentially shifting to E NH Seacoast and MA North Shore.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm favoring eastern MA early. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A chance of a pop up shower and slight chance of an inland thunderstorm. Highs 57-64 South Coast, 65-72 MA South Shore and Cape Ann to NH Seacoast, 73-80 elsewhere, but likely turning sharply cooler at least NH Seacoast and eastern MA during the day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH likely shifting to NE and E at least NH Seacoast and eastern MA during the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Occasional drizzle. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 52-59, may be slightly cooler immediate eastern coastal areas and slightly warmer far inland. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of drizzle / fog. Temperatures steady or may rise slightly. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 53-60 South Coast, 61-68 MA South Shore and Cape Ann, 69-76 elsewhere. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 45-52. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible, shifting to N overnight.
SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)
Look for a quick push of warm air followed by a shower and thunderstorm chance as low pressure passes north of the region on April 19. This will be followed by a Canadian air mass with cooler, dry weather early to middle part of next week, starting breezy between departing low pressure and advancing high pressure then trending more tranquil as the high builds over the region.
DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-28)
Pattern may turn a little wetter but stay on the cooler side of normal heading through this period.
Good morning and thank you TK
61 here
Ocean: 42
WORDLE; 4
SPC has most of Central and eastern sections in marginal risk for severe and slight risk in western sections. It will be updated in an hour or so.
Not sure SPC fully understands the dynamics of a sea breeze effect on T-Storms.
We shall see.
Great job, JpDave !
Thank you.
Sorry, most os Central sections s also in slight risk.
Excellent 4, JPD!
š thank you
As of 7AM Logan already up to 65 with West wind.
Now how high will it go before “potential” sea breeze?
Is 80 in play? Launching temperature would suggest so, unless a sea breeze kicks in. Timing, timing…..
Thanks TK !
Wordle: Fail (fell to the bad habit of taking what I have an assuming a certain pronunciation, which led me astray)
Really like the very mild feel walking out the door.
Sorry Tom,
I AM tossing you a line.
Got it !! Thanks š
Iām headed your way. I made two boneheaded errors on guesses 3 and 4 by completely omitting the one letter I had in the right place.
I do that all the time. š
Frustrating.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=04W&product=ir
Those 2 islands are having quite an overnight (their time), right now.
Yes, this isnāt the cat 5 it was, but itās still super formidable.
I was reading the tropical Mets twitter feed last night, like most intense systems, it had just completed an eyewall replacement cycle, so, while itās weakened some, itās a much larger hurricane.
What islands. Where?
I was just looking at what those islands were and havenāt come up with them yet.
This is way out in the Pacific.
Terrifying
.Northeast…
A low-amplitude upper wave associated with an ongoing MCS across the
Great Lakes will migrate eastward towards the Northeast through the
day. Residual convection associated with the MCS may linger through
morning before re-intensifying by early afternoon as daytime heating
supports steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE
values (likely up to the 500-1000 J/kg range). While buoyancy will
likely remain weak, 35-40 knot bulk shear through the CAPE-bearing
layer and focused ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave will
likely support organization of convective bands with an attendant
threat for strong to severe winds.
Credit to SPC
Thank you, TK!
We are 57 up 5 degrees from our low. We were in 50s all night.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBUF/standard
Thanks Tk
Thanks TK
Up to 68 aleady here and 66 at Logan,
I’m joining JPD with a 4 for Wordle. It took me a while, but that’s what I enjoy rather making lots of wrong guesses!
Nice. Welcome to the 4 car.
Updated outlook for today from the SPC.
Don’t agree with a level 1 out of 5 severe weather risk for areas near and at the coast.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1.png?1776170414
Tornado percentages
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_TORN.png?1776170542
Hail Percentages
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_HAIL.png?1776170681
Severe Wind Percentages
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_WIND.png?1776170572
Thank you, JimmyJames
Wordle 4
Nice. Welcome to the 4 car.
Very nice 4!
Wordle 6. Took a very long time. Sloppy playing for me.
yay! you made it!
š
Latest SPC Severe outlook
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.png
Tornado
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.png
Quick look at the latest SREF has that low tornado risk in the area the SPC is showing the low tornado chance.
72 and climbing. Dp 58
70 at the airport with dp 56
I could see a scenario where I might have temps here that are 20 degrees cooler than inland at some point today.
Indeed, could be. Perhaps even 30 degrees. Depends on those East winds.
73 here. Logan up to 72 with West Wind at 13 mph.
Thanks, TK!
72/56
Thanks, TK.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/NORTHEAST_loop.gif
If I read the SPC discussion correctly, its this MCS that can reinvigorate in the daytime heating later this afternoon closer to us.
Thanks TK.
Four days of summer upcoming here in northern CT with the NWS going with highs of 83, 85, 85, and 79 in Hartford today though Friday. Too early for this crap! Could be some huge temperature variations between here and eastern MA later tomorrow and Thursday.
Already 71F in Hartford and was 68F in Coventry when I left around 8:30AM.
Looks like primary threat period for strong to severe thunderstorms here is around 5-9PM.
I remember April 16-18th back in 2002 when we had a heat wave. That year had 35 90 degree or higher days.
Parts of VT, NH, and NY a heads up for a later today
From Ryan Hanrahan
https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2044056647840981400
74 here. Iāll go with 81 for our over under
I cannot believe I and so many others have to be inside on a day like today.
They need some law, that above 40N Latitude, on the first day it goes above some temp, 70F or 75F, you get to go outside and whatever it is you do, still counts. š
I think I’ll run for President š
Thanks TK.
Enjoy the warmth now, and it is definitely impressive warmth especially south of SNEā¦ but that mega -NAO is gonna hit like an 18 wheeler later this month and probably into May. I donāt know about SNE but the higher terrain of NNE hasnāt seen its last snowfall of the seasonā¦
As always, I really enjoy your posts, but I’m not a fan of the content of this one, even though I know you are spot on.
I was watching the Lake Tahoe webcam. Nice to see the snow storm they got hit with yesterday. Should help a little.
Haha, thanks Tom. 40 degrees and rain is indeed looming in a couple weeks š
Itās been great to see the snow and colder temps here and throughout the West, and winterās not done with us yet either. Not going to āsave the snow seasonā but great in terms of water supply and reducing fire potential for awhile.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.fcst.png
Up to 75 here.
76 here,
Norwood up to 79
Maybe its good NAO is going negative for early next week.
I can’t imagine running 26.2 miles in temps in the 70s with dp’s in the 50s would be ideal.
Looks nice and chilly for the runners next Monday.
There was a really hot day back when whw first started. I donāt recall the year. But I sure agree with you
Logan’s about to come around, I believe, to a wind lightly off the water.
Both Cape Ann and Marshfield are around.
Even if its not a true frontal boundary, its gotten so warm, that small scale sea breeze circulation, in an otherwise, light wind field (gradient) has got to be about to kick in. Lots of rising warm air has built just inland from the ocean.
Agree totally and Logan’s wind now is light WNW at 6 mph.
Wouldn’t take too much more for the wind to shift on shore.
We’ll see how strong it gets to see if it penetrates to my area.
Logan likely NOT to reach 80, but Norwood already has and it is “possible” here, depending on when/if on shore winds make it here. I suspect they will, but Later than at Logan.
78 here
Marshfield Airport just went ON SHore. ENE.
Logan now showing CALM wind. HERE IT COMES. Just a matter of minutes.
Logan now with a light sea breeze at 6 mph from the SE.
78 here and still going up. We may make it to 80 yet.
The race is on. So far Sea breeze is TOO Light to make it here
at this time. Later? perhaps, maybe even likely. We shall see.
Latest SPC outlook appears to be unchanged
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.png
tornado
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.png
Norwood 81
Full sun + true sea-breeze (not a backdoor front) + warm airmass = some extraordinary seabreeze temps along the coast.
Logan, Marshfield, Cape Ann all with light winds off the ocean and its still 70-75F. In April …… wow !
Now, tomorrow, that is a lot more a backdoor front and that will be a lot chillier to the east of it.
Oh yeah, for sure. REFRIGERATOR time tomorrow.
And, not for nothing, the temperature will fall steadily along the coast today. Would not surprise me to see 50s by days end, but not 40s like will be possible tomorrow.
Agreed !
Marshfield, Boston (Logan), Beverly and points NE from there all reporting sea breezes.
Portland, ME is 68 while Rockland, Me is 59
Now 79 here and still 75 with East Wind at 10 MPH over at Logan. I would assume that Logan’s temperature will start dropping soon. I am surprised it is still at 75.
80 here in Hingham. 79 a little NW of me in North Weymouth and 81 a little south of me in South Hingham.
82 with lots of 80s on the map
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0418.html
Kind of wondering if they were at least going to discuss the northeast with all the sun and these warm temps.
81 here and still climbing.
Iām getting around 77 at work
Test
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
IF something were to develop, you can use this visible with the cumulus clouds in central CT to get an idea of how far those storms would be able to sink south and eastward, as you can see the areas becoming stable where there are no cumulus clouds from the indirect SW seabreeze. And that is slowly moving northeastward.
Temperature at 65F, down 7 degrees from high.
It’s 85 F in Lunenburg. About an hour ago as we crossed the drawbridge leaving Hampton Beach, the car read 58 F.
We were up to 82 just before 2PM when the sea breeze arrived.
NOT like a Back Door, but just the East wind arriving.
In a little more than an hour the temperature has dropped from 82 down to 74 and it continues to drop slowly.
I actually hopes it cools off quite a bit as I am cooking a pork tenderloin tonight for my wife’s birthday. I don’t need the oven making it warmer than it already is/was. It is slowly cooling off in the house as well, so I am hoping we’ll be fine. š
Wow!!!! Logan is down to 64 with ESE wind at 25 MPH!!!!
Now that is a SEA BREEZE and a HALF!!!!!!!
Severe thunderstorm watch for Far Western MA and CT, southern part of VT, NY and a bit of N. PA.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0108.html
Hingham is down to 74. South Hingham is 77 and North Weymouth at 76. Hull (near the CG station) is at 59!!!
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 5 and it took from 7:45 am until now to get it.
That’s persistence!
š
I feel better. Well done, Sue
For the time being, the temp has zoomed back up to 79F on a busy SW wind.
79 here as well. Just came back from a walk outside. No jacket necessary.
84F now at BDL. Feels like July.
Lots of activity firing in Upstate NY and VT. Nothing yet down this way.
79 here as the SW wind returned!!! Sea breeze lasted less than 2 hours.
63 at Logan.
Jumped to 80
Based on WxWatcherās thoughts above, I guess Iāll keep my winter coat out awhile longer. Sigh.
It seems we only get 2 good weeks of āspringā around here, by then itās time for summer.
Pretty much how it’s always gone. š
I find it interesting that Logan has 64 and Quincy 79.
If you read my discussion today, you’d have seen that the sea breeze was likely to be stronger toward the North Shore, not the South Shore. Everything going as expected, actually. š
Thanks, TK.
I think I may have timed my trip to England well. I fly to London later this week and will be there for 2 weeks plus. Weather looks pretty good there: Consistently partly sunny and in low 60s (mid 40s at night), with an occasional day with spotty rain showers.
Most areas saw their warmest day of the week today. Hope everyone enjoyed!
I did mention that this was likely to be the one. š
Dropped 11 degrees so far in past several hours.
84 now. We maxed at 86
Logan wind shift to south, back up over 70 for now.
75 now, wind South at 30 mph!!!
Storms where they are supposed to be
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KENX/standard
Local radar
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
logan 77 now
Question is, should I bike to Porter Square at 6pm or not? I’ll be returning at 9pm. I don’t mind biking in light rain, but heavy downpours are a different story.
Those storms around Albany and up into VT are pretty lame sauce. Itās a favorable environment for downdraft winds so I have no doubt theyāre producing widespread 35-50mph wind gusts. Maybe a very isolated gust near 60. But theyāre generating some enormous severe thunderstorm warning boxes of which 99.99% wonāt experience any severe criteria. Some of the storms are struggling to even generate lightning. But no doubt there will be some isolated tree damage.
This isnāt really even a critique of the NWS, the warnings will technically āverifyā due to damage reports, and storms like that can still be impactful. But I do tend to believe SVRs are pretty heavily over-used these days. The impact tags do help with that somewhat but they donāt have a ton of public visibility. And on the other hand I think the tags make it mentally easier to justify issuing ābase warningsā (I.e. 60 mph winds, 1ā hail) as a bit of a CYA for storms that arenāt severe in reality. But again, thereās societal impact implications too so itās not a one size fits all problem.
THANK YOU!!!
I have felt this way for sometime now. Nice to see it in print’ even If pseudo justification.