Monday Forecast

53 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)
Unseasonably cool weather dominates the area for the early part of this week. Along with that will come unsettled weather as a coastal storm develops, making the weather map look a little bit like winter. In fact, enough cold air will be around that some of the precipitation, which begins later today as rain, may mix with or even turn to snow for a time tonight and early Tuesday in higher elevations. Snow in May in southern New England is quite rare, but certainly not unheard of. So once we get by that, it’s better, but not great, as upper level low pressure hangs around and additional disturbances drop into the flow and cause risks of showers mid to late week as well.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Some sunshine especially eastern MA and southeastern NH to start before clouds return. Rain develops southwest to northeast later in the day. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain likely, may mix with sleet/snow interior higher elevations where minor accumulation is possible. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Overcast with rain tapering off to rain showers morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)
Upper level low pressure may hang around for a couple days before being replaced by a flat ridge of high pressure. This period should be mostly dry, but not completely rain-free, though timing is uncertain on disturbances and shower threats, so will have to fine-tune that. The temperature trend should be warming, as it starts out below normal and ends near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)
Brief interruption of wet weather about May 24 in an otherwise warmer, drier pattern as it looks like we’ll be on the “better” side of a block overall.

53 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. This weather reminds me of spring 2011 and 1982. In 1982 we rented a house in Humarock in June. We ran the heat the entire time and bundled in winter clothes and PJs. I think this lasted through a good part of June 2011. I quickly read the first line of TK’s commentary in June 2011.

    TK – you mentioned 2009….was it similar?

    I figure we can grin and bear it, while cherishing the great days we do have, or we can complain….sort of like the glass half full or the glass half empty. Everyone is different and that is as it should be.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Hope everyone had an enjoyable Mother’s Day.

    Some observations and thoughts:

    We visited our daughter in Hopkinton yesterday. When we got in the car, it was sleeting right in JP. On the 23.8 mile trip out there, the precipitation varied from Mixture of sleet and rain, to all rain, to occasionally mostly sleet. While in Hopkinton later in the day towards evening it was sleeting like crazy out there. My daughters back deck was covered in sleet. It was all sleet (no snow) and pelting down very hard.

    Regarding reports of Snow in Eastern SNE, In my humble opinion it was not snow.
    The atmosphere did not support snow, but did support sleet and the surface temperatures were mild (for frozen precip), so I believe what was thought to be
    snow and/or gruapel, was in fact sleet, only softened up by the 40 degree or so
    surface temperature. Farther West, perhaps the atmosphere did support snow, but
    NOT in Eastern SNE.

    Anyway, that’s the way I see it.

    Happy Monday all….

    1. JPD I was in Hingham yesterday and it definitely looked like graupel mixed in with rain.

      1. It was sleet mixed in, trust me. It was soft due to the warmer
        surface temp. It was not snow.

        And, oh btw, the soft sleet sure would look like snow when
        hitting the windshield.

        1. Yeah it was definitely not snow. I thought graupel or sleet and I’m sure you are right that it was sleet.

  7. Doris Day just passed at the age of 97. I had no idea she was still living. What a special lady. Please don’t eat the daisies, Move over Darling, Glass Bottom Boat….

    So many. And you cannot think of Doris Day without also thinking of Rock Hudson.

    1. Wow! I had no idea she was still with us either.

      97 is quite an accomplishment, one which I surely will not achieve. 🙂

        1. 🙂 🙂

          Oh, I will be around as long as I possibly can, just don’t think I will make 97. Dad and his Dad made it to 88. His Mom to 95, so I suppose there is a chance. 🙂

          But, seriously, one reaches a certain age and one realizes that they don’t have all that much time left.

          Never ever gave it a thought until I passed the magic
          70. That’ll do it.

          1. I agree. We would like you here for a long time.

            I was not worrying about 70 which happens in a bit over a month. Now ….. hmmmm 😉

  8. Thanks TK !

    I noticed the 850 mb temps on the 00z EURO run at hr 240 …. 15 to 18C with a few 20C contours ………

    To be fair, there’s not been any consistency in that from run to run and whether here or on twitter, I have read not to currently take the EURO too seriously after 3 days, based on its recent performance.

    2. That gives me chills. And the song just makes me smile with a few tears tossed in. Thank you, Captain.

    1. My son was dismissed at 1:30 as there team was heading to Peabody for a game I hope they don’t get there & get rained out as he’s starting in today’s game I believe .

    1. Just notice a car coming up the street with wipers on – guess it is raining here also. And yes, quite windy!

  18. Regarding the earlier reference to 2009. Yes and no. Yes because of the frequency of systems. No because that pattern was much wetter, amount-wise. It was also far more anomalous occurring in June & July versus April & May, which are often wet/cloudy. This time it’s just more frequently than “average”. This reminds me a lot of spring 1983.

    1. it seems like the 80s are some of the years in which our weather patterns been kind of like as of late.

      1. I have noticed a lot of 1980s and some 1970s in recent regimes. Having lived through it and started my obs in the 1970s has certainly helped me, at least in the local area, keep track of this.

        This is probably at least partially due to things like AMO/PDO, and combinations of that with other indices.

      1. Spring 1983 was nasty. It was one of the only other times I saw snow in the air in May. It was often chilly, very often cloudy, and very often wet, but not excessively wet in terms of amounts. It was like this spring, not a lot of sunny days.

        That summer was BRUTALLY HOT, June through September, with a break in August.

  19. Do you by chance have data on summers of 1982 and 2011 that followed a prolonged cold and damp spring?

    1. I remember 1982 has been excessively humid at times, but not sustained. We had cooler days too. But if I recall correctly, the highest dewpoint I ever saw in SNE (81) occurred that summer.

      I’m drawing a blank on the summer that just happened 8 years ago. Go figure. Someone can fill that blank in.

      1. Thanks TK. I was too busy with a two year old and didn’t have time to notice HHH in 1982. I’ll do more reading re 2011 in whw archives. I remember it because we had one of our two ice dam leaks and we were having the porch gutted and the pattern started to change just as it was finished.

  20. Liking the idea of a middle 70s to lower 80s stretch of days May 19-21 (about).

    1. It was windy when I left the city at 3:30 here not even a breeze. My phone has been pinging all day with this so called NE

      1. Hope so the hotter the better . I loved last summer I hate winter , hate it !!!

  24. If I didn’t know better that it can’t snow in May, I’d say there were some flakes mixed in the last batch that went through

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