Tuesday Forecast

70 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)
Upper level low pressure will dominate the period but will be shifting far enough to the east by the end of it for a warm-up to begin. Wettest weather will be early today, but other shower threats will exist through Friday as a series of disturbances pass through the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with rain tapering off to rain showers morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)
A slow-moving pattern with low pressure centered near the Canadian Maritimes, high pressure Great Lakes, and a trough to the west of that, typical of springtime, will work in our favor with overall drier and somewhat warmer weather for a good part of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)
Turns wet and cooler to start the period then a return to drier, warmer thereafter.

70 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I sure am looking forward to St Patrick’s Day in 3 days !!!

    Wait ……. what ……. it is ??? Its May ???????? …… oh …………

  2. Good morning and thank you TK. The merry go round of wet continues…
    Gotta love Spring around this parts. It is just plain Brutal!!!

  3. Another beautiful week for outdoor sports. These last 4 weeks truly test my patience for continuing to live here. I love spring but enough.

    Nothing we can do except smile and be grateful that we are healthy and able to enjoy life no matter what the stupid weather does.
    Now let’s get a good forecast for May 25th, big birthday party.

    1. Agree that it has been pretty bad lately. Even so, I for one have no desire
      to reside elsewhere….

      Now for that “Big Birthday…..”
      Your children are pretty young and I have seen photos of you….so I am guessing
      that the BIG one is 40.

      It can’t possibly be 50.

      Happy early Birthday…

      You won’t feel much of a DIFFERENCE until the big 70, then it is ALL
      down hill from there.

        1. Oh, sorry….it sounded like it is yours.
          How old is the little one? AND HAPPY BIRTHDAY to
          him. Hope it is a great one.

            1. Hard to believe we were waiting for your little guy to make an appearance seven years ago. Seems like yesterday.

  5. Thanks TK. Not by accident, our coming transition to a warmer and drier pattern will coincide with a major pickup in severe weather activity over the Plains, which have been dormant during the recent pattern. Several consecutive days of widespread severe weather are likely starting towards the end of the week, with Friday being the first day that stands out for outbreak potential.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Agree with Hadi and JPDave. While there have been a few spring beauties thrown in to keep us off balance, especially last week, the weather has generally been dismal the last 6 weeks or so.

    Don’t know how much it snowed up north, but my guess is there has been significant accumulation in the mountains; certainly above 2500 feet. And that may continue the next couple of days. The bears are probably saying, “you know what, I’m going back to bed.”

  7. The weather hasn’t deterred 3 Tom turkeys from terrorizing JP residents. I heard on the news that one woman defended herself with a hockey stick.

    Thanksgiving is only 6 months away. 😉

    1. We have only been visited by female turkeys. The Toms have not arrived
      in my neighborhood. But the ones on the news are just up the hill
      from us. 🙂

  8. Severe weather season cranking up as WXWatcher mentioned. SPC has areas outlined in the 4-8 day outlook in the typical areas you would find severe weather this time of year.

  10. As someone who deals with the public all day it really seems that people are near a breaking point with this weather. Foul moods, nasty comments. I think it is really hard for many when it’s just day after day of 40°s and drizzle / rain.

    1. I truly feel for folks that let the weather bother them so greatly that it affects the way they act and treat people. I have far too many other problems to allow something I have zero control over alter who I am.

      1. I had the pleasure of going to lunch with my youngest and her youngest. As we drove to the restaurant which was quite crowded even at 11:30, we mentioned how the trees are so full and the flowers on the dogwoods, etc. are lasting longer this year. Before we left, we watched the Orioles enjoy the orange halves on the new feeder we put out and the tiny hummingbirds try to chase them away. Complaining accomplishes absolutely nothing except to take a person’s focus off of the beauty right in front of them.

        As an aside, we went to Willowbrook in Mendon, Sue 🙂

  14. Puck drop in about six hours…
    Time to get nutty!!!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxWZYNf8Ocs

    Go Bruins…
    Two more wins till the Bs play for the Cup and six more wins for another parade!
    What? Has it been about 90 days since the last championship parade????
    What a parade drought!!!!

    Go Bruins!

  15. Summer Outlook :

    Currently, a weak El Nino exists with a + 0.8F average anomaly for the 4 El Nino regions.

    Other years with weak El nino’s include 1954, 1959, 1970, 1978, 1980, 2005, 2007 and 2015.

    From June to Sept in those years, the number of 90F days were, respectively …. 9, 18, 13, 9, 22, 14, 17, 14

    The mean number of 90F days in those 8 summers for Boston is 14.5 days

    I am going to, therefore go, with 16 (90F days) for this summer. As far as I could tell, none of these summers recorded a 100F day and with the wetness and water tables so high, I will predict that we fall short of 100F at Boston.

    I do think we have a second consecutive summer in a row of higher humidity, given the available ground moisture and the expected pattern needed for the above avg temp concensus seemingly forecast for the northeast USA.

    Complete guess that an August tropical storm will pass through, making a landfall in eastern Long Island and heading north through central Mass and paralleling the NH/VT border.

    Central and western New England will have the most thunderstorms, because of the typical marine influences and also eastern New England being closer to the stable East coast ridge.

    1. I should add that the +0.8F anomaly was for Feb-Apr and that the current anomaly is down closer to +0.4F, so trended towards neutral ENSO

  16. The summers of 1952, 1960, 1979, 1981, 1994 and 2013 had near neutral ENSO (o.o to + or – 0.4 F anomalies)

    The 90F days from June to Sept during those 6 summers were respectively …. 17, 8, 10, 10, 21, 17 for a mean of 13.83333 or about 14 days per summer.

    1. Carolina hasn’t lost at home during the post-season this year. That is about to change. 🙂

  20. Love today’s weather! Reminds me of early April with the chill, the dominant clouds, a couple bright areas, even a peak of sun, then a quick burst of soaking drizzle that’s gone before you can turn your wipers on. 😉

    We are in transitional pattern now. Drier and often sunnier times ahead.

    1. If this was early April, we probably would have had several inches of snow in most areas.

      1. Maybe. It would have depended on timing and other details. But also, had we had several inches of snow in early April that would not have been unusual at all. Boston averages about 2+ inches in April and the suburbs more.

  21. Fairbanks, AK (latitude : 65N) high temp last 3 days : 59F, 63F and 55F so far today

    Boston, MA (latitude : 42N) drumroll please …. 55F, 55F and 48F so far today. (And Sunday’s 55F was at midnight, most of the day dropped into the 40s)

    Let’s see, 4 + 8 + 7 = 19 / 3 = 6.33F warmer on average the past 3 days.

  22. Awesome scenes out of VT today (or horrifying depending on your preference for snow in the middle of May)!

    Killington reporting 8″ of new snow of new snow today. This was the scene on the Snowshed slope (this is near the main base lodge) this AM:

    https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1128285300852006913

    Live cam from the snow stake at 3450′ elevation. Still coming down at a good clip!

    https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/snow-stake-cam

    1. They’re awesome, beautiful views. It’s just weather in New England. That snow will be gone soon anyway. 🙂

  23. Time lapse video of the snowstorm on Mount Snow yesterday/today. Note how there is already snow leftover on the ground at the start of the video from the 5″+ they received on Sunday. It melts away and then is quickly replenished. This shot is looking down a trail on the north face…

    Mount Snow‏ @mountsnow · 1h1 hour ago

    Sometimes you just gotta see it to believe it!
    #welovesnow #midMay?

    https://twitter.com/mountsnow/status/1128395811522584576

  24. Just an awful stretch of weather for at least a month. Can’t wait until this weekend, which looks to be a beauty. I don’t think I will ever live anywhere else, but the spring always tests my patience. My son gets his MS in finance from Babson Saturdsy and the weather looks great for that. Looking forward to it. And even better, he already has a job. Off the payroll for good…I hope.

    1. Congrats to your son. My business associate and I teach two upcoming sessions at Babson. One is next week, the other in June.

          1. She has a couple of cameras. Cannons. I’m proud to say she sold her first photo a bit ago. There is an awesome photographer with an artisan shop in town who displayed some of daughters photos.

    2. Vicki, I remember your daughter’s beautiful ‘barn in snow’ picture a while back – she’s got a good eye for color and form

  26. Nice serene video from the Tuckerman Ravine Trail today…

    Ryan Knapp
    ‏@WXKnapper
    8 hours ago

    The calming sounds of the forest with snow May 14th in Pinkham Notch (Tuckerman Ravine Trail) #nhwx #nh #snow #SpringSnow #hike

      1. This is nature’s beauty and peace at its finest. Can’t thank you enough. Gives me chills.

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