C-19 Chat Post – October 28 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)

The wind battering has been pretty significant and as we expected would be a greater factor than the rainfall with the storm system impacting the region. The low center is done with its loop and will be pulling away to the southeast today, but improvement will be gradual with rainfall tapering off and eventually ending, and moderate to strong wind gusts only gradually diminishing. Additional travel issues and power outages can occur through the day with only the very gradual improvement in the weather expected. We get a break Thursday and Friday between systems as a little nose of high pressure from the north comes down from Canada, but the next low arrives later Friday night and gives us an unsettled, rainy/breezy Saturday. We won’t see conditions quite like we did with this one as this low will be further west and not as strong. It will lift out of the region on Sunday which looks like it will bring improving weather, but maybe a passing shower with a lingering trough in the region however. Although the outlook for Halloween is not that bad – on the mild side and generally dry.

TODAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle gradually tapering off. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts, gradually diminishing.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain arriving late. Temperatures steady 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Highs 56-63. Wind SE to variable 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

High pressure brings fair and seasonably cool weather for the first day of November. A couple waves of low pressure may bring brief rain chances around November 2 and 4 though timing and details remain uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

While I lean toward a drier pattern with variable temperatures, we may see another blocking situation evolve. Something to watch. Forecast remains low confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – October 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)

It’s time for the first of two storm systems to impact our region during this interlude of blocking. As a primary low over the northern Mid Atlantic weakens, a low pressure area that was off the Carolinas has started to move to the north northeast and will be captured by upper level low pressure, doing a cyclonic loop while reaching maximum intensity just south of New England tonight / early Wednesday before moving away and gradually weakening. The early part of this system is in the form of shower bands, some with heavy rain, that have been impacting the region since late last night and will continue to do so today before a more solid area of rainfall fills in across the region for several hours, before gradually tapering off Wednesday. The strongest winds are going to occur along the coastal areas, especially near the South Coast, during tonight, closest to the tightly wrapped up low as it makes its closest approach on the west-moving portion of its loop. We will see pockets of damage, especially with so many vulnerable trees due to a wet summer and very moist ground. As previously mentioned, leaves coming off trees will block storm drains leading to additional flooding, and leaves covering roadways also can make it hard to see lanes and lead to slippery conditions, not unlike snow and ice in winter. Use caution if you need to travel! We get a break Thursday and a good portion of Friday as high pressure in eastern Canada noses down into New England between two storm systems, the second of which will be a little weaker with more direct track to the west of the WHW forecast area. It will spread its first rainfall into our area Friday night, probably on the later side, and bring us an unsettled Saturday with additional rain and breezy weather, though not looking nearly as strong for wind as the first one…

TODAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 40 MPH are possible.

TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 45 MPH are likely.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain arriving late. Temperatures steady 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Highs 56-63. Wind SE to variable 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Low pressure should be north and east of the region by October 31 and while there is still the chance of rain showers an overall drying trend with a westerly wind is expected. High pressure brings fair and seasonably cool weather for the first day of November. A couple waves of low pressure may bring brief rain chances around November 2 and 4 though timing and details are not certain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

While I lean toward a drier pattern with variable temperatures, we may see another blocking situation evolve. Something to watch. Forecast is low confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – October 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 25-29)

A blocking pattern with high pressure in eastern Canada (Quebec) and low pressure to its south over our region means an unsettled and at times stormy stretch this week. Two storm systems will impact the region. The first of the two will be the most potent consisting of an initial low pressure area moving in from the west today and redeveloping south of New England tonight, doing a cyclonic loop while intensifying to its maximum just south of the region Tuesday before starting to move away Wednesday. This system will bring the most significant rain and wind to the region. The strongest winds will occur in coastal areas and higher elevations. Also keep in mind that we’re at a time of year where leaf drop is increasing, only to be enhanced by this type of weather, which can lead to slippery roads where leaves cover them and additional flooding where leaves block storm drains. A second low will have likely maxed out in intensity to the southwest of our region before it approaches later on Friday, but with the threat of more rain arriving sometime Friday night. Between these systems will be a drier interlude but not likely with much, if any, clearing.

TODAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain returns. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 40 MPH are possible.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 40 MPH are likely.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain returns at night. Highs 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Storm system impact the region with showery and breezy weather over the October 30-31 weekend, wettest Saturday, likely drying out somewhat Sunday for Halloween. Cooler, drier to start November but have to watch a frontal boundary for a wave of low pressure at some point.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

We have to watch the atmosphere’s tendency to block again with another storm system possible in this period. With colder air nearby, we may even need to consider something other than rain at least for interior locations. But it’s very early and that’s highly speculative.

C-19 Chat Post – October 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 24-28)

A perfect overnight for radiational cooling resulted in frost for many areas away from the coast. Even though low temperatures were above freezing in some areas that got frost, this occurs because the thermometer sensor is at a location about 5 feet above the ground where right at the ground it can be up to a few or even several degrees colder. For example, my low temperature here was 38, but there is frost on a car in a lower part of the adjacent property, away from any buildings. Despite the chilly start, we do recover today with lots of sun pushing temperatures back to the 50s to around 60, though you’ll notice the sun fading as we get later into the day. This marks a change in the pattern for the coming week. We’ll see the development of a Rex block, with high pressure to the north, in this case centered over eastern Canada, especially Quebec, and upper level low pressure to its south. This is going to allow the first of two low pressure areas to impact our region over a drawn-out stretch of time, beginning with an initial band of rain ahead of a warm front arriving late tonight into Monday morning before it pushes off to the north. The warm front will never make it through the region, becoming stationary and staying to the south. Its parent surface low will be forced east southeastward and start to weaken as a redevelopment of it takes place in the waters south of New England. Due to the atmospheric block and orientation of upper level low pressure, this system will have an opportunity to strengthen and max out in intensity while doing a loop just to the south of New England, allowing it to produce a significant rain and wind event for southern New England Monday night through Tuesday night and very early Wednesday, before it finally pulls away to the southeast. At this time, a nosing down of high pressure from eastern Canada will provide drier weather later Wednesday into Thursday, although we will likely not see complete clearing during this time.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind calm evening then NE up to 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain returns. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Rex block pattern stays in place at least for the last few days of October, but may give enough so that the next low pressure area instead of being forced to take a more easterly track to the south of the region will cut more across New England. This low will impact our region with a rain threat as early as the night of October 29 and more likely during October 30 before pulling away with a more westerly air flow and just a few lingering showers for Halloween. Behind this we should get into a drier westerly air flow and seasonably cool weather for the first couple days of November.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

As previously mentioned, the forecast confidence is not high this far out, even less so than typically. Current idea is for a more westerly air flow regionally but the larger scale pattern is still vulnerable to blocking, so we’ll have to watch for that. I like the idea of drier weather overall however, with seasonable temperatures though a bit variable with a brief but decent chilly shot of air possible somewhere during this time.

C-19 Chat Post – October 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)

A “not-too-bad” weekend will be followed by a stretch of cloudy, wet weather. We are now undergoing the transition into the blocking pattern that has been speculated about for a while with uncertainty as to the timing and exact orientation. Well, the timing is now, and the type of blocking pattern is known as a “Rex block” which is high pressure to the north, in this case centered over eastern Canada, especially Quebec, and upper level low pressure to its south, in this upcoming case generally over New England. Before we get to the unsettled weather though, the weekend won’t be all that bad. We have a weak disturbance moving through the region this morning with lots of clouds around but as the disturbance departs there will be enough drying of air to provide more episodes of sun mixed with clouds during the day. It will be noticeably cooler than the last several days, in face cooler than it has been much of this very mild month, but with the lack of wind it won’t feel that bad outside. Tonight’s sky is expected to end up mostly clear and with high pressure moving overhead, we have a set-up for strong radiational cooling, so it should be a chilly night and some interior locations will likely see their first frosts which are coming late this season. Sunday will feature more sunshine with high pressure over the region, but high cloudiness will begin to increase as we go through the afternoon in advance of approaching low pressure as our blocking sets up. And then it’s time for a period of wet weather with rain moving into and across the region late Sunday night into Monday, which likely tapers off for a while during the day Monday as the initial thrust of moisture moves to the north. But low pressure is going to move eastward and spin itself up across the region Monday night and Tuesday when a more widespread and significant rain is likely. By Wednesday, the low will be on a weakening trend while slowly departing, but improvement in weather will be slow and that day may end up remaining overcast and occasionally wet as well.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 56-63. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 32-37 interior lower elevations, 38-43 elsewhere except 43-48 urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny then increasing high cloudiness later in the day. Highs 56-63. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind calm evening then NE up to 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain returns. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

An unsettled weather pattern will continue with the block still in place, only starting to break down toward the end of the period. Currently I expect an intrusion of slightly drier air for October 28 before the next low pressure system impacts the region with more wet weather October 29 into October 30. This low should be weakening and pulling off to the east by late in the period with gradual improvement.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

A more zonal (west-to-east) upper pattern is expected to become established during this time frame with fair weather more dominant, and variable but mostly near to slightly above normal temperatures. Given guidance performance in medium ranges of late though, this forecast is only low to moderate confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – October 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Guidance is not impressing me at all these days and not giving much in the way of applicable help to putting together the weather forecast, even in the shorter 5-day range. What we know for certain is that a cold front is moving through the region this morning, but a secondary frontal boundary to pass by later holds the coolest air behind it, so we’ll still have a fairly mild day today with varying amounts of clouds. It looks like most shower activity has stayed to the north of the WHW forecast area and I don’t really expect any more showers to pop up during the day, even when the secondary front comes by later. A cooler but dry northerly air flow will take over for the weekend. There had been concern of some wet weather to start the weekend from a potential coastal low with the frontal system not that far south and east of New England, but it doesn’t look like that will really take shape. What will be around is upper level low pressure to produce occasional cloudiness, but probably not strong enough for anything more than a brief passing shower, which I hesitate to even mention in the forecast for the chance being so remote. When we get to early next week the confidence level of the forecast drops off significantly. At least today we are looking at a little more consistency across guidance of some unsettled weather potential for Monday & Tuesday as we see the evolution of a pattern of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south, with the low pressure then moving into (probably just south of) our area for occasional wet weather evolving during the Monday / Tuesday time frame. There is still the opportunity for high pressure to hold most of the wet weather off through Monday after an initial burst of lighter rainfall. Still working on these details and will refine the forecast the next few updates.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain possible. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Lows 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Plenty of uncertainty in the forecast for the final 5 days of October. Assuming the scenario of low pressure getting into the region with wet weather just beforehand, we should see that low exit early in the period with seasonably cool and drier weather for a brief time followed by impact from another low pressure area with initial rain then lingering showers as it may be slow to exit. Still an opportunity for high pressure to be stronger and limit the wet weather too, so you can see this is a low confidence outlook with plenty of change possible.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

I’m no more confident yet on the early November pattern as I am on the one to end October. Leaning toward a gradual return to a more west-to-east flow and variable temperatures along with 1 or 2 unsettled weather threats. Just a general idea for now with lots of fine-tuning to come…

C-19 Chat Post – October 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

A warm front is passing through the region this morning and its parenting low pressure area moving eastward across southern Canada will bring its cold front across the region during early Friday, but both days will be on the mild side, today being the warmer of the two. Our only threat of any rain with either front is a passing shower chance from the cold front Friday morning. Cooler air will filter into the region during the course of the coming weekend, and a low pressure trough in the region Saturday will produce a lot of clouds at times, although any rain threat is limited. Sunday, upper level low pressure will dive across the region out of Canada, bringing the core of the coolest air in. A low pressure wave will be in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley by then and there’s a bit of conflict between various models as to what it does, with some guidance bringing wet weather into southern New England by early Monday while other guidance keeps it to the south with high pressure more in control. I’m leaning toward the latter scenario at this time.

TODAY: Variably cloudy morning, then trending sunnier. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, in the morning. Highs 66-71. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

The trend on guidance has been to evolve a blocking pattern a little more quickly, with high pressure generally centered to the north of the region over southeastern Canada, and approaching low pressure from the west moving more to the southeast to a position south of New England. The big question is if and when rainfall from this system gets into southern New England and if so, how long does it hang around. At this time, the leaning is that it is more likely to happen during the middle and latter portion of this period, but that is not a high confidence outlook, so check updates.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

The weather pattern coming out of October into early November is dependent on the behavior of blocking that evolves in the days before it. Currently, the idea is for the blocking pattern to be in place at the start of the period, then break down back to a more west-to-east flow pattern. There will be at least one threat of rainfall here, but it’s impossible to time when that may be this far in advance, based on the pattern uncertainty.

C-19 Chat Post – October 21 2021