DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13)

Blocking continues and keeps high pressure in place through Saturday, then weakens and allows low pressure to run at the region from the southwest later in the weekend into early next week, but enough high pressure remains in eastern Canada to try to force this series of lows to the south as well as resulting in them running into dry air. To get any rain we need to rely on enough dynamics from the lows surviving, then maybe adding some drizzle to the mix via low level moisture from an eastern air flow off the Atlantic. This basically results in unsettled but not total wash-out weather Sunday into early next week. I’ll repeat here what I said in yesterday’s discussion: Any rain we can get will be welcomed as we are running a precipitation deficit of a few to several inches for the year-to-date with the latest U.S. Drought Monitor reporting abnormal dryness across most of southeastern New England, and of course the continued high fire danger.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 63-70 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground for forming. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64 coast, 65-72 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog developing. Chance of rain. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland morning, then falling. Wind SE to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH eastern coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 40-47. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Periods of rain possible. Highs 48-55, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 40-47. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of coastal drizzle and patchy fog. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 14-18)

Look for renewed blocking, this time with low pressure generally near or just off the East Coast, an often easterly to northerly air flow here with episodes of unsettled weather but no widespread soaking rainfall. Temperatures while on the cooler side will average closer to normal due to nights that aren’t that chilly but days that aren’t that mild.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 19-23)

Indications for a nudge eastward of features and high pressure moving over this area which would result in mostly dry weather, cool nights, cool coast & warm inland days. Confidence remains low on the forecast this far out.

C-19 Chat Post – April 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 8-12)

A moderate to strong blocking pattern will keep a ridge of high pressure parked over our area for the next 3 days, resulting in nice spring weather. With a general light northerly to variable air flow, expect daily sea breezes and cooler conditions in coastal areas while inland locations see a slow daily warming trend. By Sunday and Monday, the block will have weakened enough to allow features to move from west to east once again, but this means the first of a series of low pressure areas will begin to impact the region on Sunday when rain chances increase. How much rain is able to get into the region Sunday will depend on how much dry air there is to battle. While I’m not seeing anything that resembles a heavy rain event, I do expect it to be rather overcast and damp with some rain Sunday into Monday. Any rain we can get will be welcomed as we are running a precipitation deficit of a few to several inches for the year-to-date, are teetering on the edge of a drought again, and continue to see high fire danger with dry ground and the area still pre-leafout.

TODAY: Variably cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes by noon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 52-59 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground for forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 63-70 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog developing. Chance of rain. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Periods of rain possible. Highs 48-55, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 13-17)

What was once the western trough of an omega block will likely become the eastern trough of a newly formed omega block during this period and will be over or just east off the East Coast during this period. For us this means no big warm ups but also not that cold, and somewhat unsettled weather, but more in the form of occasional showers with spokes of energy rotating about the larger upper level system.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 18-22)

Only very little change to the overall pattern at most, with possibly a slow eastward drift to the overall set-up again, which may put our area back under a high pressure ridge with more dry weather, cool nights, cool coast & warm inland days. Confidence remains low on the forecast this far out.

C-19 Chat Post – April 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 7-11)

The large scale blocking pattern (omega) continues with a slight eastward progression to the set up expected during the next 5 days. Today through Friday the high pressure ridge that makes up the middle of the block will move eastward over New England while the low pressure area that has been doing a cyclonic loop to our east continues to pull away. As this happens, the very dry Canadian air that had come in behind that low Monday and Tuesday will be replaced by air with a little more maritime moisture in it, and this will lead to the advance and development of low level cloudiness that may overtake the sky in much of the region by this afternoon and certain tonight into early Thursday, before it gets eaten away by some drier air and the warming influence of the sun. By Friday, the an extension of surface high pressure should shut off any maritime influx and limit the low cloud potential, so that day should end up clearest of the next 3. The upper pattern continues a slow eastward shift by the weekend, nudging the ridge off the East Coast and allowing the western low pressure trough to approach. It’s still up in the air (figuratively) as to how much impact we see here from the trough and its associated surface low pressure area. For now, introducing the chance of some wet weather for Sunday’s forecast, knowing that it may also be held back from arriving or never make it here at all. So if you are making outdoor plans for the weekend, Saturday is your more guaranteed dry day at this point.

TODAY: Lots of sun followed by lots of clouds. Highs 49-56 coast, 57-64 inland. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds followed by partial sun. Highs 49-56 coast, 57-64 inland. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 52-59 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground for forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 12-16)

What was once the western trough of an omega block will likely become the eastern trough of a newly formed omega block during this period and will be over or just east of the East Coast during this period. For us this means no big warm ups but also not that cold, and somewhat unsettled weather, but not likely any big storms either – again fairly typical blocky springtime set-up. Can’t really determine day-to-day details this far out with that kind of pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 17-21)

Only very little change to the overall pattern at most, with possibly a slow eastward drift to the overall set-up again, which may put our area back under a high pressure ridge with more dry weather, cool nights, cool coast & warm inland days. Not high confidence on this forecast though.

C-19 Chat Post – April 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)

The large scale weather pattern continues its omega block configuration that will readjust then redevelop over the next several days. The large low pressure circulation that brought lots of clouds to eastern areas of the WHW forecast area yesterday will move south then east, away from the region, into midweek but will still have enough broadness in its circulation to toss some cloudiness back into our area, especially eastern areas again, through Wednesday. Later in the week, a high pressure ridge will nudge eastward into the region with fair weather with clearer sky meaning chilly nights but days that warm up nicely inland but have coastal sea breezes.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Daytime highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Overnight lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground for forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)

Overall tendency is for a blocking pattern regime. A little more evidence today to support low pressure making it close enough to bring at least more overcast and some chance of rain by later April 11 into April 12, and possibly a recycling of the pattern so that we are dry for a few days and see another wet weather opportunity by the end of the period. Low confidence on this and will have to monitor closely.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)

An overall tendency for blocking continues with our area on the drier side but the mean air flow often from the north and east with no big temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – April 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 5-9)

The large scale weather pattern features a typical springtime “omega block” (a configuration of low pressure / high pressure / low pressure from west to east that resembles the Greek letter omega as plotted on a weather map). Here in southeastern New England we find ourselves on the western side of the easternmost trough to start this week, and the corresponding surface low pressure area is centered south of Nova Scotia and will move southward into the waters east of New England today before turning east and moving away during Tuesday. The circulation with this storm system is quite large and has been bringing rain and snow to Maine since yesterday, continuing up there for a while today while down in southern New England only a few patches of light rainfall may make it near the coast and over Cape Cod before pulling away Tuesday. When we get to the middle of the week, the entire configuration will shift eastward and reorganize so we found ourselves on the eastern side of the high pressure ridge. This means dry weather with mildest temperatures away from the coast, which will be influenced by the still-cold ocean water via the development of sea breezes. Abnormally dry conditions are again observed across the region, and with the lack of rain in the forecast, we’re slipping back toward drought again. Also, the dry surfaces and pre leaf-out status of vegetation leave the region very vulnerable to quick development and easy spread of brush fires, especially early this week when wind speeds will be up somewhat.

TODAY: Overcast Cape Cod with a few periods of light rain possible. Mostly cloudy southeastern NH and the balance of eastern MA. Partly sunny elsewhere. Highs 45-50 Cape Cod, 50-55 southeastern NH and eastern MA, 55-60 elsewhere. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 10-14)

While there are guidance differences, the overall idea continues to support a tendency for a blocking pattern across North America on the large scale. For us here, high pressure centered at the surface to northeast of the region will try to keep low pressure from the west advancing into the region as the upper level pattern nudges eastward with the ridge moving a bit further to the east over the region while the western low pressure area in the block makes its way into the Midwest and tries to send a surface feature eastward. The leaning at this time continues to be toward drier weather with most rainfall being held to the southwest and south of the region. However an easterly flow may evolve at the surface enough to allow some low level moisture in at some point over the weekend, but it’s too soon to be sure of that. A reorganization of the block should again find our area on the dry side of it as we head toward the middle of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 15-19)

An overall tendency for blocking continues with our area on the drier side but the mean air flow often from the north and east with no big temperature swings. This will have to be re-evaluated as guidance often struggles with blocking patterns on the large scale.

C-19 Chat Post – April 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 4-8)

A happy Easter to all who are celebrating it today! Despite a cold start, it will be a nice day under a small extension of Canadian high pressure. Blocking in the atmosphere will be strongest the next couple of days before some weakening of the block takes place. This pattern evolution will send a large low pressure circulation westward through the Canadian Maritimes today then southward passing not too far east of New England on Monday, before drifting back to the east away from this area into the middle of the week when high pressure rooted in eastern Canada noses its way back across this area. Other than a light precipitation threat Monday when the low makes its closest pass, this is a dry weather pattern once again. While the early blossoms are starting to show and will continue to increase, we’re still a little way off from full leaf-out, which means the combination of most days with sun keeping the ground very dry, fire danger will be quite high.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix with cloudiest conditions nearest the eastern coast where there may also be a few light showers of rain. Highs 45-52 eastern coastal areas, 53-60 elsewhere. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in eastern coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 9-13)

The large scale pattern will feature the redevelopment of blocking during this period. For the first couple of days (April 9-10) it looks like high pressure, centered in eastern Canada, will extend through New England enough to keep it dry and tranquil here with cool nights and days that are mildest over the interior and cooler at the coast with sea breezes. We’ll have to keep an eye on low pressure to the southwest of the region trying to move this way from mid through late period, but despite guidance inconsistency, the trend has been to keep this area of unsettled weather pushed further to the south and while we end up with more cloudiness we would not end up with that much precipitatoin. Will watch these trends in guidance and the overall evolution of the pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 14-18)

An overall tendency for blocking continues with our area on the drier side but the mean air flow often from the north and east with no big temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – April 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 3-7)

A large low pressure circulation cut off from the main jet stream will be the primary driver of our weather during the next 5 days, but its influence, while keeping us on the cooler side, will be to keep us on the drier side too. It will drift westward through the Canadian Maritime Provinces this weekend, turning south into the waters east of New England by Monday before turning back to the east and drifting away toward the middle of next week. A weakening disturbance will send some clouds into the region while its in the process of being torn apart by the larger low to the east tonight into early Sunday. So while the weekend sees temperatures below to near normal, it will be dry. If we are to see any precipitation threat it would be Monday as a lobe of moisture from the offshore low gets near the coast at its closest pass.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few rain and/or snow showers possible. Highs 42-49. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 8-12)

Blocking pattern weakens enough for some additional eastward movement of features affecting our weather – first with high pressure and dry weather early in the period, then approaching low pressure and potential unsettled weather mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 13-17)

Blocking may redevelop but again we may be on the drier side of the block with limited precipitation chances and no temperature extremes.

C-19 Chat Post – April 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)

Apologies for the very late update. Today, we’ve seen the expected development of diurnal clouds due to sunshine acting on air with moisture lingering from yesterday’s rainfall and rising into cold air aloft. The atmosphere is fairly stable so these clouds are not too vertical, but rather flat and spread out, leading to a more general coverage versus scattered individual cells that can produce heavier precipitation. However they can grow thick enough to produce a few flakes of snow mainly northwest of Boston, but any flurries that occur will be insignificant. And speaking of snow, some of you may have seen snow showers late last evening as the cold air became established across there region. If you didn’t see them, or were missed, you can trust me that they were there. And that cold air is established this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s and a gusty northwesterly breeze. But we’ll see some improvement soon, tomorrow in fact, as we have plenty of sun and temperature moderation into the 50s. I’d like to say this trend is going to continue for Sunday (Easter, for those celebrating) but I can’t. A disturbance will be coming across the region, delivering clouds Saturday night into Sunday, before they decrease again, and there may be a passing rain or snow shower Easter morning. All the while, as previously mentioned, the atmosphere is developing a typical spring blocking pattern, and a large cut off low pressure area will be drifting westward through the Canadian Maritimes, close enough to put us into a northeasterly air flow early next week, keeping temperatures from warming back up too much. Most of the precipitation from that low will fair to reach our area, but some of its cloudiness will make it into the region.

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Lots of clouds – most snow South Shore & South Coast of MA, most clouds NW of Boston where a few snow flurries are possible. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a passing shower of rain/mix/snow possible overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a passing shower of rain/mix/snow possible morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)

Large scale blocking. Low pressure to the east drifts away but high pressure will be in eastern Canada and winds will often be northeast to east in our area. Eventually another low will approach from the southwest. While the first few days of the period are likely to be mainly dry, the precipitation risk will increase later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)

Overall blocking pattern continues with high pressure to the north of the region and the tendency for low pressure to be to the south. Leaning toward the drier side overall, but can’t rule out some periods of precipitation from low pressure to the south or coastal influence from low level moisture.