C-19 Chat Post – October 14 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Discussion…

Delta’s remains, part 2, will interact with an approaching cold front from the west today and produce a decent rainfall across the region. This will not be a drought-busting rainfall by any stretch as now we are at the stage of drought where we need a long-lasting pattern change to more consistent precipitation to do that. This moderate rainfall event will help a little in the short term, but do very little for long term issues. It’s not our only chance in this 5-day period, as at the end of the week another approaching trough and frontal system from the west will bring additional wet weather. With time, however this event looks a little shorter in duration and less beneficial than its initial pattern set-up might indicate. Between these events will come some pleasant October weather with above normal midweek temperatures.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain with embedded heavier rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with evening rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Clearing overnight. Areas of ground fog. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon rain showers. Highs 65-72. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely mainly during the morning. Temperatures steady 55-62 morning, falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Cool/dry/breezy October 18 behind the late week frontal system. Warming up quickly October 19 with additional unsettled weather about October 20. Potential cool-down later in the period with dry weather returning, but this part of the confidence is low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)

The trend will be to try to bring pushes of colder air in. The most likely chance for unsettled weather is around October 24-25 as it stands this far in advance. We still have to watch for an ocean storm south of New England around the middle of this period.

C-19 Chat Post – October 13 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Discussion…

Sorry for the delay in today’s update. Part one of Delta’s remains are in the process of failing to produce much rainfall here. Part two will be a little more successful on Tuesday as they interact with a cold front moving into the region to wring a bit more moisture out in the region. This will help out drought situation but just a little bit. We have a long way to go to break that. Some guidance has significant rainfall forecast for late this week although I’m skeptical. That falls around the end of day 5 into day 6 so I’ll just say I’ll lean conservative on that part of the forecast for now and re-evaluate later. In the mean time, after our wet day Tuesday, we clear out and will be mild for the middle of the week.

Details…

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty very light rain / drizzle. Highs 54-61. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially after midnight. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain with embedded heavier rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of lower elevation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Becoming partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Models have continued to struggle so sorting those potential errors out I come up with a mild day and a risk of rain showers October 17, a cooler & drier day with breezy conditions October 18, a warm-up following, and a risk of additional rain showers around October 20 before a late-period cool-down.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Two significant pushes of chilly air are possible during this 5-day period. Also possible is a storm system to the south that threatens with rain, but probably stays mostly to the south or offshore. Low confidence forecast. Please follow updates.

C-19 Chat Post – October 12 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Discussion…

Hopefully if you have allergies they have eased up, though that may be doubtful as we get another dry/breezy day today. And we still have somewhat elevated fire danger as most of our region saw no rainfall at all with the passage of the cold front, and those that did in the WHW forecast area saw it only very briefly. But the front is through, and the warmth of Saturday is gone, replaced by a more seasonable October chill today, which will still be quite the nice day. Next up: The remains of Hurricane Delta. That will bring is a spell of wet weather for about 24 hours from the middle of Monday to the middle of Tuesday, but I’m afraid for a good part of the region it won’t be as beneficial as we’d like, with probably only 0.25 to 0.75 inch rainfall for a good portion of the region. There will likely be a few areas that exceed the 0.75 inch mark. Of course any rainfall will help, but when you are not following it up with another hopefully non-flooding rainfall event soon after, the benefit is minimized as the ground doesn’t have much of a chance to loosen up to accept subsequent rainfall events. Time will tell, but I still feel we’re in this drought for quite the long haul. One adjustment I’m making in Tuesday’s forecast is the wind direction and temperature. The low pressure circulate that was one Delta will pass southeast of our area, not northwest of it like I suspected previously, and this will change things up a little from what the previous forecast had said. Either way, when we reach midweek, it’s back to fair and mild weather.

Details…

TODAY: Limited sun near South Coast to start, otherwise sun & high clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 47-54. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (COLUMBUS DAY): Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy through mid afternoon with periods of rain eventually tapering to drizzle. Areas of fog. Clouds may break at the end of the day, especially west of the I-95 belt. Highs 53-60. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of fog lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

No change in the struggle of our medium range guidance, so once again A.M.E. and not making too many changes at this point. Cold front expected to bring a rain shower threat early October 16 followed by a drier interlude. A quick warm-up ahead of a stronger front that brings unsettled weather October 17, followed by a push of cooler/drier air October 18, a quick warm-up following that and the next round of unsettled weather possible by October 20. Despite the increased frequency of precipitation threats, I’m not looking at this as a change to a beneficial rainfall pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

The early to mid portion of this period should be dominated by westerly flow with limited rainfall threats and variable temperatures with nothing too extreme. Watch the end of the period for a possible close pass or visit from a wet weather system to the south of New England and a push of colder air possibly following that. Low confidence that far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – October 11 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Discussion…

Some of you may be suffering quite the bout of allergies today – a result of 2 out of 3 windy days, dry ground, and one last push of weed pollen, as well as “fine particulate matter” such as dust or even fragments of dried leaves. Another product of long term drought and short term wind today will be high fire danger, and the NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning as a result. No, that doesn’t mean you have to be on the look-out for red flags falling from the sky. The red flag, or red symbols, have always been associated with warnings or directions to stop, like a red flag in a race being a signal for all drivers to not drive with caution but come to a complete stop. The red flag at a beach would mean that rip current risk was extremely high and swimming was not advisable (while two red flags indicate a closed beach). There is a notation on the net I found that a red flag was used in river areas as a flood warning in the late 1700’s, which would be of particular interest to early settlers having agriculture near rivers. Currently, the red flag is not a flag in the literal sense, but the phrase is used by the National Weather Service to basically tell you that you really should not have any open flames outside. That would be wise advice to heed today. Why is it windy? Simple, the high pressure area that delivered our cool October air has now moved to the south of New England and is still pretty strong, while low pressure is passing by to the north, also pretty strong for a polar jet stream system at this time of year. The difference in pressure between the 2 is significant, and changes quickly over a relatively small distance, squeezing the air flowing between them (from southwest to northeast where we are). The squeezing of that air results in it flowing faster. So now that you got through that long explanation of red flags not falling from the sky and why it’s windy today, what about the rest of the weather? Yes, on to that. Warm today, ahead of a strong cold front that will cross the region tonight. That cold front itself may bring its own interesting weather in the form of showers and even an isolated thunderstorm that could translate some strong wind gusts to ground level, resulting in pockets of tree damage. This will not be a widespread event like the one we had at midweek, but just isolated to scattered, and favoring areas mostly north of I-90. But the front will make it through the entire region by Sunday morning, and Sunday will be much cooler as the wind will be blowing from the northeast. Although I think we’ll have a fair amount of sunshine Sunday after any early clouds associated with the front have departed. The sun will become filtered by high cloudiness moving into the region during the afternoon. This cloudiness is associated with the leading edge of the moisture from what was Hurricane Delta, which made landfall in Louisiana Friday as a Category 2 storm, just to the east of where Laura made landfall last month. If you recall yesterday, I posted some information showing that it is not as rare as some may think for hurricanes to make landfall in the same state twice in the same season (please refer to the top comment on yesterday’s blog for that info if you missed it and would like to see it). Next question: How much rain? Some. But not a great deal. Not a drought buster. But any rain we will take, and we’ll get some by later Monday as it will take the moisture a while to fight the dry air and get in here. And our rain opportunity will be around for about 24 hours until it’s pushed out to sea by a cold front from the west on Tuesday, which likely starts wet and ends dry. This sets up a dry but pleasantly mild Wednesday as the air behind that cold front is not polar, but Pacific in origin.

Details…

TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusting around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, including pockets of strong wind near any showers/storms, shifting to NE from north to south.

SUNDAY: Limited sun South Coast early, otherwise sunshine becoming filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 47-54. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (COLUMBUS DAY): Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain showers and areas of fog through midday Breaking clouds and partial sun later in the day. Highs 60-67. Wind E shifting to S 5-15 MPH morning, then W with higher gusts by late-day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Medium range guidance continues to struggle with timing and features so I’m going to do my best to sort it out by anticipating their errors. Current best guess for this period is for one cold front to sweep through early October 16 with a mild day ahead of it and a brief cooler shot (though not too chilly) behind it. Another front approaches with a slightly more amplified trough by October 17 which may end up mild but rather unsettled. A push of cooler/drier air follows this later in the period. Don’t be surprised if there are adjustments in this outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

The early to mid portion of this period should be dominated by westerly flow with limited rainfall threats and variable temperatures with nothing too extreme. Watch the end of the period for a possible close pass or visit from a wet weather system to the south of New England.

C-19 Chat Post – October 10 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Discussion…

After some areas saw a frost this morning, another seasonably cool October day is in store today, but this one will come without the wind of yesterday as we are in a weaker gradient on the northeast side of a high pressure area, but that gradient will tighten up again Saturday as the high slips off to the south, remains rather strong, and is pressed by low pressure passing to the north. If you are out and about tonight, especially late, you may notice that the coolest part of the dark hours occur just prior to midnight, and that the wind picks up a little and it feels a little less cool as we approach dawn. Along with the increase in wind again Saturday will come a big temperature jump, and it will remind you a little of the summer days of not so long ago, other than our sun angle is now much lower. It’s interesting to note that if the lowest potential temperature tonight is reached, these areas could have about a 40 degree diurnal (spread from lowest to highest temperature) from Saturday’s very early morning hours to its early afternoon hours. A cold front will move from north to south across the region Saturday night and other than a slight chance of a few passing showers, it will just bring mainly clouds with it as it turns our wind to the northeast by early Sunday, which will turn out to be much cooler. While most of the clouds associated with the front will move out early Sunday, we’ll probably have filtered sunshine for a good portion of the day as the high cloud shield from what will be the remains of Hurricane Delta (currently in the Gulf of Mexico) spreads across the sky here. The meteorological conundrum in my head the last few days has been whether or not we get into the rain from the remains of that systems, and if so, trying to determine its significance. Yes, I do believe we will get into it, somewhat, but that it probably holds off until late Monday or even Monday night and into Tuesday. At this point, I am reluctant to say we’ll have a regional beneficial rain to help our drought situation, but any rain, so long as it’s not coming too fast and furious, will help. So I’ll continue to monitor this and fine-tune the rain chances as we get closer to the event. Also, please see the comments section below for some information sent by a long time colleague which refers to hurricane landfalls. It may surprise you.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH this morning, W under 10 MPH this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and shallow fog interior low elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lowest elevations and 40-45 elsewhere occurring by midnight, followed by a slight temperature rise overnight. Wind W under 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.

SATURDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NE from north to south.

SUNDAY: Limited sun South Coast early, otherwise filtered sun with considerable high clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (COLUMBUS DAY): Cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly late in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Humid. Highs 60-67. Wind shifting to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

A tough from the west may help produce additional rain showers to start this period before moving eastward, then one additional front may bring an additional rain shower threat late October 15 to early October 16. Temperatures start above normal then go into a general cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Low to moderate confidence outlook for a west to east flow overall but mean trough position Great Lakes to Northeast with a cooler regime, but mostly dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – October 9 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)

Discussion…

First, to clarify, whether or not yesterday’s event ends up being labelled a “derecho”, it was not one in the classic sense, which are usually self-perpetuating systems, while this one was a squall line on a cold front sustained with the aid of a strong low level jet. Either way, it was a powerful wind event for many, and did cause a lot of damage to very vulnerable trees. And today, as cleanup takes place, it will do so with fair, cool weather conditions, along with a gusty breeze, so please be aware of additional falling branches that may have been weakened or broke but got caught up on other branches when the initial storms came through. This cool and breezy weather is the start of a 2-day stretch of this, although winds will settle down somewhat during tomorrow, only to pick back up again Saturday, but from the southwest, as high pressure slips to the south of New England. After the seasonable chill of today and tomorrow, you’ll notice the feel of summer back for a brief visit on Saturday. But a cold front slips down from the north and a new high pressure area in Canada pokes its cooler self into our area by Sunday. The next question to answer is whether or not moisture from the remains of Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Delta makes it here to New England. It definitely will make it here in the form of clouds, which you’ll probably notice as high cloudiness increasing on Sunday, but the rainfall will probably be significantly reduced before it ever arrives. Current thought is we get into some light rainfall by Monday. Will continue to monitor this.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39 except 40-47 immediate shoreline and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45, except a little milder in urban centers. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (COLUMBUS DAY): Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

The first part of the period is most likely to see unsettled weather due to lingering remnant moisture from Delta and a trough swinging through from the west. The middle to end of the period look seasonably cool/dry. Low to moderate confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

A generally west to east flow with a milder start to the period then a shot of much cooler air later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – October 8 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Discussion…

A cold front sweeps across the region later today. Ahead of it we will have varying amounts of clouds. A rain shower threat exists but is greatest from mid through late afternoon from northwest to southeast across the area. Thunder is possible in any of the heavier showers but the biggest threat today will be wind, becoming gusty ahead of the rain shower threat, but also existing within the shower activity as well when some damaging gusts may occur. Drought-stressed trees still foliated are quite vulnerable to gusty winds at this time. After a mild day ahead of this front, it will turn much cooler tonight and we’ll have 2 cooler days coming up Thursday and Friday, along with a gusty breeze, especially Thursday, as high pressure approaches from the west. The center of this high will slip south of New England by Saturday and we’ll have a day of westerly wind and a significant warm-up. In fact, it will feel a little bit like summer on Saturday. But that won’t last as a cold front slips down from the north, pushed but another high pressure area in Canada, to give us a cool-down by Sunday. While Saturday likely to be a day filled with plenty of sun, Sunday may end up less so, as a lot of high cloudiness may be moving in ahead of the remains of what is currently a major hurricane near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and will have made its way across the Gulf of Mexico and into the southern US later this week.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly afternoon hours. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH and spotty gusts 35-50 MPH Cape Cod area. Brief gusts above 50 MPH are possible with the passage of some of the rain showers.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH evening, diminishing slightly overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39 except 40-47 immediate shoreline and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45, except a little milder in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

A quick look at medium range guidance this morning to give me an idea of what the computers “think” about the moisture from the remains of Hurricane Delta: GFS says rain here October 12 while ECMWF (Euro) has it dry. In fact, the Euro model never brings any rain into this area from that system or any other system through October 16, while the GFS keeps a few showers around through October 14 then has an offshore low with rain nearby but not over the region on October 15 until both models finally agree on dry weather for day 10 (October 16). The fun of guidance, and why the meteorologist has to know what not to believe as much as what to buy into a little bit more. With all of that said, I’ll lean today toward a day of lots of clouds and a slight chance of insignificant remnant rain on October 12 here, and a few rain showers around around October 14 from a passing system from the west, and will agree with both models about a dry ending to the period. Temperatures mostly above normal, cooling to normal later in the period, based on my expected timing of systems.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Looking for a generally zonal (west-to-east) jet stream flow with mostly dry weather and temperatures variable but averaging close to normal.

C-19 Chat Post – October 7 2020