7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

“Ain’t it foggy outside, all the planes have been grounded”. Bonus points if you can identify the song and band (hint: it predates the 1980s). Some of you woke up to quite the foggy morning, courtesy a calm wind and the marine layer that’s been hanging about since Sunday evening. This layer of air is not going to be obliterated by a strong wind but only gradually scoured away by a wind that shifts gradually around to the southwest and west, but that takes until tomorrow. So this morning, and again tonight, some low clouds and fog will be the result of the low level marine air in place. But in between, it will clear up enough for a hint of a summertime feel to the air, away from the shoreline at least, during the day today. Coastal locations will be kept cooler due to a light southeasterly breeze, which doesn’t really shift more to the southwest until sometime tonight. Wednesday’s weather will likely be the warmest (hottest in some cases) as we get more of a westerly wind largely off land. There are limited coastal locations where a west wind is still at least a partial ocean breeze, outer Cape Cod and the islands, for example. These areas will continue to be cooler than others, which is completely normal and typical, especially early in the warm season when the ocean water is still fairly chilly. Our dew point will be creeping up gradually, but unless you are super-sensitive to rising dew points, you won’t really feel it that much until Thursday when it will be borderline muggy for early season. I’ve a risk of pop up showers for that day, but I don’t really think they will occur in most locations, perhaps far western areas late in the day and maybe a few more at night. Ahead of an approaching cold front on Friday it will be rather humid as well but we’ll see more cloudiness and a rain shower risk, perhaps a few thunderstorms as well. If this front’s timing was faster we’d be looking at a bigger thunderstorm risk but I think the front itself will not be crossing this area until Saturday morning. This does likely mean that some of Saturday may end up showery as well, a little more pessimistic an outlook than I had previously.

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog eventually give way to sunshine. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds and fog mainly South Coast. Mostly clear elsewhere. Lows 55-62. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Some early low clouds/fog South Coast, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast with coolest over Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear except patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm inland locations mid to late afternoon. More humid. Highs 80-87 except 72-79 South Coast with coolest over Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a few showers. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, favoring morning and midday hours. Gradually lowering humidity. Highs 68-75. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)

Dry end to May and start to June with a cooling trend May 31 and June 1. Warm front may bring cloudiness and wet weather by later June 2 and a brief return to milder weather June 3 before the end of the period is much cooler again.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Overall pattern looks cooler and drier than average but at least one threat of showers/thunderstorms should occur.

C-19 Chat Post – May 26 2020

7:34AM

Please take a moment today to pause and remember the fallen. Regardless of your stance on any issue, that stance is one of your freedoms they fought to give you. We owe them much, but if they were here today they would not ask for it, so please, just give them something back by never forgetting…

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 25-29)

After being dominated by dry air for a good part of the weekend, the holiday itself finds itself mired in a low overcast from the ocean. High pressure has positioned itself to bring in a light but moisture-laden southeasterly air flow today, which announced its arrival at the end of the day yesterday with an advancing deck of stratus clouds. A few pockets of drizzle may occur this morning near the coast, but as they day goes on the clouds will try to break, but this is much more likely to happen over the interior. So expect today’s conditions to be cloudiest and coolest the nearer to the ocean you are, but possibly turning at least partly sunny and much milder further inland. The clouds refill tonight where they broke but all areas will see the departure of these clouds Tuesday as we are introduced to a warmer and drier southwesterly air flow, and a taste of summer, which will build through midweek as the southwest wind continues, finally delivering some humidity by Thursday. This is when I now have to introduce the risk of a pop up shower or thunderstorm to the forecast for interior locations, although this will be a low risk. By Friday, however, a cold front sweeping into the region from the west will bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region, coverage and intensity to be dependent on amount of sun and the timing of the front. Updates to come.

TODAY: Low overcast, areas of light fog, and some coastal drizzle possible this morning. Clouds break with some sun developing mainly over inland locations this afternoon. Highs 55-62 coast, 63-70 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear except some low clouds and fog possible South Coast. Lows 55-62. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast with coolest over Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear except patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm inland locations mid to late afternoon. More humid. Highs 80-87 except 72-79 South Coast with coolest over Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-85, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 30-JUNE 3)

Upper level low pressure and a lingering surface trough may trigger a few showers to start the May 30-31 weekend which should end up on a drier, cooler note before finishing. The first few days of June look cooler to start, then milder to finish, with some showers possible during the temperature transition.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 4-8)

Overall pattern looks cooler and drier than average but at least one threat of showers/thunderstorms should occur.

C-19 Chat Post – May 25 2020

8:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)

A quick look back at yesterday is an example of how fascinating weather can be, at least so some people. I’m outside on a cool but very pleasant sunny late afternoon cleaning out my car and doing some odds and ends that mark the transition from spring to summer, while rain is just starting to wind down on Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket after 2 to 3 inches and street flooding, the result of a soaking rainfall for hours. The storm to the south was loaded with moisture but ran into a wall of high pressure. It had just enough to dump that rain there as its moisture was squeezed out, while an earlier overcast to the north was obliterated and replaced with sunshine. Today will not carry as much complexity, although cloudiness still hangs near the South Coast and may do so for much of the day, while some higher clouds start to move in from the northwest as well in the upper level air flow. It may be a little too cool for the liking of some folks, but there is a mentality that has seemingly crept into the collective thinking of the population that goes something like “Memorial Day Weekend = Summer = Sunny & hot beach weather” … adjust the phrase a little from person to person. I realize most of us probably do not think this way but there seems to be that feel about it when I see people comment about how cold the water still is, or how the weather is “too cold” or “not sunny enough”. NO KIDDING. Ever hear of that season called spring? Yup. It’s spring folks. Not summer. A little research on the history of our weather at this time of year says that it’s pretty much been like this for .. I don’t know .. centuries? Maybe even longer. 😀 … Enjoy what you have. We get our summer weather, and wow, a taste of that will be coming back before this 5-day period is over. And it’s going to be caused by the same high pressure area that’s giving us cool weather today as it slides to the south and eventually turns the wind from east today, to southeast and south Monday, to southwest by Tuesday through Thursday. Those last 3 days will be your warmest, but remember that a southwesterly air flow is still on the cooler side for the South Coast and especially Cape Cod – something quite normal for here during spring. Who would have figured it?!

TODAY: Sun and high clouds except some additional lower clouds South Coast. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 40-47. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 60-65 coast, 66-71 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-55 interior, 55-60 coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)

Current timing suggests a cold front moves through May 29 with a risk of showers/thunderstorms, followed by a dry and seasonable May 30-31 weekend, then another cold front brings a cool-down for the start of June with an additional shower risk somewhere in the June 1-2 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)

A cooler pattern for early June, but rainfall likely to average below normal as well.

C-19 Chat Post – May 24 2020

8:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

Memorial Day Weekend marks the “traditional” start of the summer season as far as tourism goes, ending with Labor Day Weekend in early September. There’s some sad irony in place this year with how the calenar happens to line up during a time when there are current and probable ongoing restrictions in place for many tourist activities due to the pandemic situation, and that is that for the first time in several years, the “season” is the longest possible, with the earliest possible Memorial Day (May 25) and latest possible Labor Day (September 7). But regardless of the situation, weather will still be happening, and knowing it will be necessary. As far as Memorial Day goes, traditional observances have either been cancelled or greatly modified this year, but I ask you to please pause at some point during this weekend to remember the brave souls who fought for your freedom and did not come home. We should never lose sight of that. Onward to the weather, we see no big changes in the generally outlook, with low pressure trying to make a run into the region today only to be thwarted by high pressure to our north, which will be strengthening against an already fairly weak low. Nevertheless the low had enough push to throw its shield of clouds across our area along with some pockets of shower activity. The shower threat, while concentrated to the south, exists anywhere, but will then retreat to the south during the course of the afternoon. All the while, a frontal boundary passing through the region this morning and midday will erase the lingering mild feel leftover from yesterday’s summer preview, and replace it with a much cooler maritime polar air mass which you will definitely feel arriving, if it hasn’t already made it to your location by the time your read this. However don’t expect a deck of low clouds and fog to plague the region Sunday, which will be a bright day due to enough dry air, but cool due to the air mass in place. As high pressure starts to sink southeastward, by Memorial Day it will have moved enough to create a southeasterly air flow which will tap into a bit more moisture and at that time may send some cloudiness in from the ocean, while at the same time we see a disturbance from the northwest sending some of its own cloudiness into the region. At this time keeping the forecast for Monday dry as well, but I can’t say the threat of brief rain is zero either. As we approach the middle of next week, high pressure will have positioned itself to pump warmer air and the feel of summer back in.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning-midday with spotty rain, favoring southern areas. Increasing sun north to south mid afternoon on. Highs 62-69 morning, falling into the 50s from northeast to southwest during the day. Wind SW-NW 5-15 MPH early, shifting to NE from north to south and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-43 interior with coolest in valley locations, 43-48 coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH coast but near calm interior.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 40-47. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 62-67 coast, 68-73 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-55 interior, 55-60 coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)

Temperatures should spend a few more days above normal in the final days of May and may turn considerably cooler just in time to welcome June. Timing is obviously suspect that far out, but just the overall trend. A couple frontal boundaries may be in the region any time from May 29 onward to initiate this transition, at which time a couple rounds of showers/t-storms may take place. Will fine-tune going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

A cooler pattern for early June, but rainfall likely to average below normal as well.

C-19 Chat Post – May 23 2020

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

Summer preview today. High pressure will have completed its journey from Canada to southeast of New England, and today the winds come around to mainly a land breeze (southwest), except along the South Coast and especially Cape Cod & the Islands where this wind is still off water. While many areas reach or exceed 80, some for the first time this season, those South Coast locations will not. Everybody turns much cooler Saturday as a frontal boundary drops down from the north and a bit of a squeeze play will be on between a new area of high pressure in eastern Canada and an old low pressure system which has been stuck to our west and south finally trying to make a run at southern New England. It will increase the cloud cover for a time tonight into Saturday and push some of its rain to about the South Coast, but it will really get no further than that before being pushed back to the south by the Canadian high, which will re-grain and retain control through the balance of the Memorial Day Weekend. Sunday will be the coolest day with a continued easterly air flow, which will then relax and turn more southerly on Monday as the high center, like its predecessor, slips to the southeast and will be located east of New England. This process will continue further by next Tuesday when it will feel a bit like summer again for a good portion of the region.

TODAY: Sunshine but increasing high clouds late. Highs 75-85 except 68-75 immediate shoreline and 61-68 South Coast with coolest over the islands. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with a period of rain possible near the South Coast. Partly sunny afternoon with a late-day increase in sun north to south. Highs 62-69 occurring by midday then turning cooler during the afternoon.. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-43 interior with coolest in valley locations, 43-48 coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH coast but near calm interior.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 40-47. Wind calm.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-67 coast, 68-73 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

Temperatures above normal for this 5-day period. High pressure to the southeast of New England should be dominant with dry weather May 27-29, coolest temperatures interior lower elevations at night and coastal areas by day. A frontal boundary should be in the vicinity sometime during the May 30-31 weekend when the risk of showers and thunderstorms will occur.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

A cooling trend for early June, but rainfall likely to average below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – May 22 2020

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

Today and tomorrow it’s high pressure in a position to give a wind that shifts from southerly to westerly, and this is a warm-up for just about everybody. The warm up of course is modified where wind still has to come across ocean water, such as Cape Cod and especially the islands to the south. The usual adjustments in the temperature forecast will be made here. But two spectacular spring days are coming up. The Memorial Day Weekend will have a slightly different mood as we see that dawdling low pressure area to the south try to make a run at us, getting clouds enough Saturday for more cloudiness and perhaps some wet weather into southern areas, but pushed again southward by a new area of high pressure from Canada, but this will keep a generally easterly air flow going for the weekend, which will be cooler than the 2 days that precede it.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73 except cooler south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands as well as a few other coastal locations. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain, mostly morning to midday, favoring the South Coast. Highs 57-64 but may turn cooler coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 interior valleys, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind calm.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65 coast with coolest on Cape Cod & Islands, 65-72 inland. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

A little warmer again during a good portion of this period with dry weather to start then a few opportunities for showers as a frontal system gets closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31-JUNE 3)

Mostly dry overall, couple minor events possible, with temperatures near to slightly below normal for this period.

C-19 Chat Post – May 21 2020

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)

On yesterday’s blog post I gave you a long explanation of how wind direction would have an impact on temperature during this stretch of days when high pressure is in control of the weather. I will not repeat that here because it basically has not changed. The idea is high pressure remains in control of the weather and holds a low pressure area to the south at bay. That low will get a little bit closer by the start of the weekend so that there may be a little more wind and cloudiness than we see before that. But as it stands right now, the next 5 days will be generally dry.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-61 coast, 62-67 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 except cooler south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands as well as a few other coastal locations. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 but may turn cooler coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)

Memorial Day May 25 looks dry. after this a weakening frontal system should get into the area with an increase in humidity and shower chances. Too soon for details.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30-JUNE 2)

No change from the thought process of yesterday with little reliability in medium range guidance and just a general feel for the pattern, will continue with the outlook for near to slightly below average for both temperature and precipitation.

C-19 Chat Post – May 20 2020

7:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

Canadian high pressure will be in control the next few days as it sinks southward across the northeastern US. The transition that takes place in this pattern will be mainly with shifts in wind direction. Today, with the center of the high to the north of the area, it’s a cool northeast wind, which may bring in low clouds from the ocean at times. At the same time the decaying storm system to our southwest will still be trying to send some higher level cloudiness in as well, so it won’t be perfectly sunny all day. The wind will be much lighter Wednesday as the high parks itself overhead. This will be a sunnier day and while inland areas warm up, as this warming takes place closer to the coast a natural sea breeze will kick in, cooling those areas back. Thursday, the high center starts to sink a little more to the south and the gradient wind, while light, will be more from the south, allowing further warming. Still, coastal areas where a wind with a southerly component travels over water will be cooler. By Friday, the center of the high will finally be to the south of New England, and a more westerly wind means that most of the region warms up nicely, but still there are exceptions where even a west wind blows over water before reaching the land, but these are quite limited to places such as outer Cape Cod, west-facing shores of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, and a place like Nahant, for example. These will be your coolest areas on Friday. A peek at the beginning of the weekend shows that a new high will be located in eastern Canada and that the high to the south will have weakened and replaced by a weak low pressure area – the remains of the low currently over the east central US. The high to the north may drive a back-door cold front down the from eastern Canada via Maine and cool the entire area down. What about Arthur? Yup. It’s out there, off the US Southeast Coast, and will be moving away and weakening as it tracks east and eventually southeast, possibly bringing some showery weather to Bermuda the next few days. Buh-bye!

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, with higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-40 interior, 40-45 coastal areas and Boston. Wind NE 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 except cooling back to the 50s coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 except cooler south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands as well as a few other coastal locations. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 but may turn cooler coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

Not a very high confidence forecast on the middle and end of the Memorial Day Weekend Sunday (May 24), which may be cloudy as low pressure to the south, while not strong, tries to press northward while high pressure to the north holds it off. Does rain make it into part of the area? Probably not, but I say that with hesitation because its spring in New England, and model performance, which normally suffers as you go out in time, suffers even more as we continue to lack some data input with fewer planes still in the sky during the pandemic. My current thought-out scenario would allow the high to eventually win out, slide southeastward, and warm the area up somewhat for Memorial Day (May 25). After this, a weakening frontal system from the northwest and a little more south to southwesterly air flow ahead of it would increase the shower chances heading through the middle of next week. I am certain this forecast will need a lot of fine-tuning.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)

As little confidence as I have for the 6-10 day period, I have even less for this one, so I will say that taking a look at the overall pattern leads me to believe both temperatures and precipitation will be near to slightly below average.