Tuesday Forecast

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)…
This last day of May 2016 will start out with a contrast across the region from clear conditions northwest of Boston to lingering rain/fog over the outer part of Cape Cod and Nantucket as a frontal boundary departs the area, but high pressure will overtake the entire region and by the time May makes its final bow, we’ll have enjoyed a very warm and dry day across most of the region. After this, the first few days of June will end up somewhat cooler, with fair weather on Wednesday as high pressure builds north of the region and starts to turn the wind north to northeast. By Thursday, look for some cloudiness due to an ocean wind. A cold front approaching from the west may being some showers by Friday, but should move through and allow a bubble of high pressure to bring fair weather to start the weekend while low pressure that was once Tropical Storm Bonnie passes well south of New England.
TODAY: Cloudiness to start the day RI and southeastern MA including some rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, but rain ends in these areas with a clearing trend by midday and afternoon. Elsewhere, sunshine dominates. Highs in the 70s South Coast including Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 60s eastern shores and Cape Cod, 70s elsewhere. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)…
At least 2 systems will bring variable temperatures and a risk of episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms during this period. One system should be around later on June 5 into June 6, with a follow up unsettled period later June 7 into June 8. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)…
A similar pattern continues with passing systems and variable temperatures, but it still does not look excessively wet or cool either.

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Monday Forecast

8:20AM

Happy Memorial Day to you all! Please take a little time out to remember all of those that gave their lives for your freedom. We owe it to them more than words can express.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30-JUNE 3)…
There are no major changes to the discussion overall. The overall trend for today is still the same but your best bet is to follow radar for the latest on existing rainfall, and comments below for updates.
TODAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mainly cloudy morning with areas of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, with activity trending to southeastern areas of MA as well as RI with time. Partly sunny this afternoon including a chance of an additional shower or thunderstorm especially west and north of Boston later in the day. Highs middle 60s to middle 70s, coolest coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with any showers ending early. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s, some 70s Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s except some upper 60s coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s, some upper 60s South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)…
A series of fronts and disturbances bring some unsettled weather at times. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)…
A continued active period, though not excessively wet, with a few disturbances and episodes of shower activity possible. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

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Sunday Forecast

8:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)…
The mid summer feel of May 28 is a memory in just about all of the region as a back-door cold front pushed this all out and replaced it with cooler air and low cloudiness. The exception is that the cloudiness has not really gotten to the South Coast of New England and much of southwestern MA and most of CT, where there has been sunshine this morning. These are the locations, especially CT and western MA, that may see pop up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as the sun will be allowed to work on the still-warm air mass in place there. These showers and storms would die out as they tried to move northeastward later in the day, destroyed by the marine-stabilized air in place over the remainder of the region. My idea for Monday, which is still looking unsettled, is not for a washout but for episodes of wet weather. My best guess is that one area of showers and embedded thunderstorms crosses much of the region in the pre-dawn hours and pulls out around or shortly after dawn, leaving the region with just a few showers and some breaks in the clouds during most of the Memorial Day ceremonies. Again this will depend on location and the timing is very tricky, so it would probably be wise to plan for the worst if you will be outside, the worst being showers and downpours. Another area of rain and possible thunder may be more aimed for CT, RI, and southeastern MA later morning or early afternoon, and if things work out just right, much of the region may be rain-free in the afternoon. We’ll have to watch for the approach of showers and thunderstorms from the west late in the day that originate in NY, but they may never make it beyond western and possibly central MA and CT. High pressure noses in Tuesday and will try to hang on through midweek, though we have to watch some low pressure to the south, one center which will likely be the remains of Bonnie, should it come closer than I currently expect. Though Tuesday will be quite warm, a cooling trend will follow this.
TODAY: Low overcast morning except sunshine in far southern MA including Cape Cod as well as southern RI. Partial sun developing in the overcast areas this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely over interior areas of MA by mid to late afternoon dissipating this evening. Highs 60s shoreline, 70s to lower 80s interior with warmest far inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH near the coast this morning otherwise light and variable.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers and thunderstorms probable between midnight and dawn. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. A couple episodes of showers and embedded thunderstorms during the day. Humid. Highs upper 60s Cape Cod to lower 80s some interior areas. Wind variable mainly SE to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s except some upper 60s coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 3-7)…
A series of fronts and disturbances bring some unsettled weather at times. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)…
A continued active period, though not excessively wet, with a few disturbances and episodes of shower activity possible. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

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Saturday Forecast

8:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)…
No big changes here other than trying to fine-tune this Memorial Day Weekend forecast. First we have the hot day today with a nice early blast of heat – perhaps a preview of many days to come this summer. A cold front from the northeast (back-door front) cuts this off for most of the region on Sunday before lifting back across the region in the early hours of Monday. Even with the heat, a bit of humidity, and the front around, any shower and thunderstorm activity will be isolated, with a pop-up airmass variety shower or storm possible later today and perhaps a few showers/storms along the front as it comes through, hangs about well southwest of Boston for a while Sunday, then returns at night. The greater chance of shower and thunderstorm activity arrives in the early hours of Monday, a result of moisture associated with a tropical depression that may reach minimal tropical storm strength before reaching the coast of South Carolina this weekend. Though the low center from this will be in that area through the weekend, some of the tropical moisture will ride northward and pass over or close to southern New England. An early call on this is that I think a couple areas of showers and thunderstorms may take place, the first 2 traversing southern New England between the overnight hours of Sunday night / Monday morning and the middle of Monday morning. With a little luck most of this should be ready to exit or already gone by the time many of the Memorial Day festivities take place, though trying to time such activity even 48 hours in advance carries a significant degree of uncertainty. We’ll also be left in a humid air mass during the day and with an additional trough approaching later, we may see another round of scattered showers and storms. So at this point I’m still not looking for a Memorial Day washout. By Tuesday, the final day of May, and Wednesday, the first day of June, expect high pressure to regain control with a return to fair weather.
TODAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. More humid. Highs 70s Cape Cod and immediate beaches, 80s to lower 90s elsewhere with warmest likely in the Merrimack Valley and interior southern NH. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Patchy fog late. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW becoming variable the NE over southeastern NH and eastern MA late.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible from northwestern RI across interior MA and southwestern NH. Highs 60s shoreline, 70s interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers and thunderstorms likely between midnight and dawn. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Numerous to scattered showers and thunderstorms through mid morning. Risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon to evening. Humid. Highs upper 60s Cape Cod to lower 80s some interior areas. Wind variable mainly SE to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)…
Fair weather June 2-3. A series of fronts and disturbances bring some unsettled weather at times June 4-6. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)…
A continued active period, though not excessively wet, with a few disturbances and episodes of shower activity possible. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

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Friday Forecast

7:32AM / EDITED 3:38PM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)…
And now the last 5 days of May, including Memorial Day Weekend. We’ll see changing weather, as is typical. An early hot air mass will invade the region by Saturday with many areas nearing or exceeding 90 for a high temp, other than the typically cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Expect a back door front to sweep through the region Saturday night and early Sunday and cool the region down significantly, but not extremely. Forecast wildcard is for Memorial Day itself with some uncertainly as to whether or not moisture associated with a potential tropical system off the US Southeast Coast makes it up this way. Right now, I’m leaning away from that idea with just some scattered showers around with a front in the vicinity, exiting by Tuesday. Will monitor and update as needed.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Hazy sun. Highs upper 60s Cape Cod, 70s immediate eastern shores, lower to middle 80s interior. Wind light SE to S
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S to SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly west and north of Boston by late in the afternoon. Highs 70s Cape Cod, upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, but may be mostly cloudy at times especially eastern coastal areas. Highs 60s coast, 70s interior. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light E.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except 70s Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)…
Fair and cooler June 1-4. Shower risk returns June 5.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)…
Episodes of unsettled weather with variable temperatures.

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Thursday Forecast

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)…
Yesterday’s discussion is essentially unchanged, so this will be just a forecast update and will expand in comments section below.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s coast cooling to 60s afternoon, upper 70s to middle 80s interior. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A little more humid. Highs 70s South Coast and Cape Cod, lower 80s interior.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of late-day showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler some immediate coastal areas and Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs middle to upper 60s coast, 70s interior.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs upper 60s to lower 70s coast, middle 70s to lower 80s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)…
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible May 31 as a front pushes through the region. Mostly fair and cooler June 1-4.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)…
Passing disturbances during this period will bring a few episodes of showery weather and changing temperatures.

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Wednesday Forecast

7:25AM

DAYS 1-6 (MAY 25-30)…
It’s all about the wind direction. Upper level high pressure builds in and remains in general control of the large scale pattern in the Northeast for the next several days, but our resultant weather here in southern New England will have everything to do with the wind direction, which will be governed by the position of surface features, particularly high pressure, as well as a frontal boundary that will be seemingly indecisive about where it wants to be. First, we start on the damp and cloudy side today as there has been little wind to clear out the low level moisture overnight, but this will change quickly during the day as a drying and warming westerly wind takes over, erases the cloudiness and replaces it with sunshine and the feel of summer, even for much of the coast as the wind comes off the land. Thursday, a weak front will have dropped through from the north in the pre-dawn hours, and a light north to east wind will mean cooler conditions for north-facing and east-facing shores while interior areas are still quite warm. On Friday, winds flip to southerly and many areas are warm, except the South Coast which will be modified from wind off ocean water just to the south of New England. As we enter the Memorial Day Weekend, it will be the same story. Saturday looks like the hot day with a stronger westerly wind in control, the front will come back a little stronger from the north at night as a more reinforced high pressure area builds in eastern Canada. This front may ignite some thunderstorms as it presses toward and through the region, but should push far enough to the south that high pressure noses in with not only cooler but dry air for Sunday into Monday, although some cloudiness may be around at times. It may end up warmer later Monday as the high pressure area sinks far enough through the region so that the wind starts to come back around to southwest or west. Note that I extended the typical “DAYS 1-5” to a “DAYS 1-6” for today’s blog so we could include the entire Memorial Day Weekend forecast in this section.
TODAY: Early low clouds dissipate, then mainly sunny. Highs middle 80s to near 90, except cooler Cape Cod and a few immediate eastern coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70s coast, 80s interior. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A little more humid. Highs 70s South Coast and Cape Cod, lower 80s interior.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of late-day showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler some immediate coastal areas and Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs middle to upper 60s coast, 70s interior.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs upper 60s to lower 70s coast, middle 70s to lower 80s interior.

DAYS 7-10 (MAY 31-JUNE 3)…
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible May 31 as a front pushes through the region. Fair and cooler June 1-3.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 4-8)…
Passing disturbances during this period will bring a few episodes of showery weather and changing temperatures.

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Tuesday Forecast

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)…
A connection issue is going to keep me from adding a full discussion so just a forecast update. Will comment later on upcoming weather systems.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Occasional showers, a few downpours and a rumble of thunder possible. Highs in the 60s. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Chance of showers evening. Areas of fog. Lows in the 50s. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly sunny. Highs 70s Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late day or evening. Lows in the 60s. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except cooler Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)…
A few showers, cooler coast, warm interior Sunday-Monday, depending on the position of a nearby front. Additional showers/thunderstorms possible May 31. Fair and cooler June 1-2.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)…Fair and seasonable early in the period, then unsettled and warmer later in the period.

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Monday Forecast

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)…
Upper level low pressure dominates through Tuesday then exits to the east Wednesday. We’re mainly dry ahead of a surface low that is captured to the south today and then wet tonight and Tuesday as this system does a loop over southern New England. The door to summer is opened as it departs on Wednesday and we’ll warm up significantly for a couple days at least. A wildcard for Friday is a potential back-door cold front that may cool down at least coastal areas.
TODAY: Sun gives to to clouds. Highs in the 60s coast, lower 70s interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain arriving. Lows in the 50s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain, decreasing later in the day. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms at night. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s but may cool back to the 60s at least coastal areas during the day.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)…
Low to moderate risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but still looking largely rain-free for Memorial Day Weekend May 28-30 with above normal temperatures. Showers/thunderstorms may be more likely on May 31 followed by fair and cooler weather June 1.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)…
Fair and cooler early to mid period. Shower risk returns later in the period.

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Sunday Forecast

8:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)…
No changes. Just a forecast update on this next-to-last Sunday of May.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodic showers. Highs in the 60s but may stay in upper 50s immediate coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Rain risk increases evening and night. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain, decreasing later in the day. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)…
Memorial Day Weekend, extended version for some, starting on Friday May 27 and may extend beyond Monday May 30 to Tuesday May 31 for some, but either way this 5-day period will not offer all that much change, as upper level high pressure dominates but a couple of surface fronts try to push through the region. This pattern is usually mostly dry and warm, but will bring a couple opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Based on my current view of things, May 27 and 31 would be the most likely days for this, but we will probably have to keep an eye out for them at times over the Saturday-Monday period too. Temperatures above to much above normal during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)…
On the dry side much of the time but with cooler temperatures in general during the first several days of June. A couple passing showers may occur around June 2-3 and a rain risk may present itself by the end of the period.

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