DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

High pressure will bring two wonderful early summer days today and Wednesday, and Thursday says “hey wait, I wanna be wonderful too!” Well, I think it will. The details of each day will be determined by the position of governing high pressure, which sitting to our west today brings mild and dry air with a general land breeze, and sitting overhead Wednesday brings lighter wind, warming air, but cooling coastal sea breezes. But we have a little interruption Wednesday night to deal with, that many people may not even notice, and that’s a trough sliding across the area from west to east. This weak, fast-moving system will bring clouds and perhaps a passing shower, but will be gone before the sun comes up Thursday, which will be a bright and warmer day as another high builds in. By Friday, this high will slide offshore into the perfect position to deliver us some summer heat, and an increase in humidity, though not to oppressive levels on that particular day. We will get our humidity spike on Saturday as a cold front approaches, triggering the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The coverage and intensity of showers and storms will be depending on the sun’s heating before the front’s arrival and the timing of the front as it crosses the area. This aspect of the forecast will be fine-tuned as we draw closer to its occurrence, so for now the forecast wording will be more generalized.

TODAY: Sun with passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: A few clouds early, then clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N under 10 MPH early, then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 67-74. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

High pressure is expected to be in control of the weather for July 3-5 with fair weather, refreshing Canadian air to start then a warming trend following. Disturbances from the west bring increased humidity and the chance of showers / thunderstorms later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Shower/thunderstorm risk early in the period then high pressure takes over with fair weather, drier at first then more humid again later in the period when the shower/thunderstorm risk may return.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

A cold front moves across the region to start the week with our only real chance of rain during the next 5 days. I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity – probably just some embedded areas of heavy showers and possible thunder in a more general widespread light to moderate shower area. We don’t have enough time for decent heating as extensive cloud cover was already moving into the region to start the day, and there are a couple of other limiting factors in terms of helping bigger storms develop. The slow but steadily moving front slides offshore tonight. Dry Canadian air arrives for Tuesday – a very nice day but with a breeze. High pressure overhead brings another nice day Wednesday, but a much weaker field field will allow the development of coastal sea breezes. A weak disturbance will move across the region quick from west to east Wednesday night with some cloudiness and perhaps a passing shower, but high pressure moves back in for Thursday – a very nice summer day to end June. This high will slide offshore and it looks like the heat will be on to welcome the month of July on Friday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers through mid morning. Widespread showers and possible embedded thunderstorms late morning to late afternoon. Highs 73_80. Humid – dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W from west to east across there region during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with additional showers possible favoring RI and southeastern MA. Clearing overnight. Lows 56-63. Drying out with dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

Warm/humid July 2 with a cold front bringing a shower/t-storm threat – timing on that is uncertain but any interruption to fair weather will likely be brief. A northwesterly air flow arrives for July 3-4 with fair weather and drier air and that high should hang around with dry weather and a warm-up for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

We may be vulnerable to showers/thunderstorms in the July 7-8 period as we’ll be near an air mass boundary with some disturbances moving through. The longer range call is for fair weather to return for the July 9-10 weekend as well as the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-27-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

The feel of summer arrived just in time for the first weekend of summer. Yesterday featured lots of sun, temperature in the 80s in general, with some inland locations making runs at 90 while the coast cooled back to the 70s with an afternoon sea breeze. Today will be a touch warmer overall but we still may see some coastal sea breezes, with inland penetration a little less than yesterday. So overall a slightly warmer to hotter day is today’s takeaway. Humidity levels will be in check with dew points hovering around 60 – a bit humid for some folks, but definitely not oppressive. Ironically as the temperature comes down for Monday due to cloud cover with the arrival and passage of a slow-moving cold front, the humidity will spike ahead of the front, so it’ll be cooler but more humid. Add into that a decent chance at fairly widespread showers and possible embedded thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat is likely to be limited due to the lack of daytime heating from extensive cloud cover, and slow-moving nature of the front, which will tend to produce more general showers. Behind the front, we get a delivery of pleasant Canadian air for Tuesday. High pressure moves overhead Wednesday with nice weather – light winds and coastal sea breezes. We’ll have a weak disturbance move quickly west to east across the region Wednesday night with some clouds and possibly a passing shower, and then another high pressure area moves in with great summer weather for Thursday, the final day of June.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH with some local sea breeze eastern shores.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. More humid, dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms midday-afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Humid – dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W by late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with additional showers possible favoring RI and southeastern MA. Clearing overnight. Lows 56-63. Drying out with dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

High pressure shifts offshore with fair weather and summer heat for July 1. Warm/humid July 2 with a cold front bringing a shower/t-storm threat – timing on that is uncertain but any interruption to fair weather will likely be brief. A northwesterly air flow arrives for July 3-4 with fair weather and drier air and that high should hang around with dry weather and a warm-up for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

We may be vulnerable to showers/thunderstorms in the July 6-8 period as we’ll be near an air mass boundary with some disturbances moving through. The longer range call is for fair weather to return for the July 9-10 weekend, but that’s way into the future so the confidence on that forecast is not all that high at this point.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-26-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

In stark contrast to the final weekend of spring (June 18-19), which featured anomalously cool and breezy weather with a lot of cloud cover at times, and an episode of showery weather mid weekend, this first weekend of summer will feature dry weather, moderate humidity, lots of sun both days, and a will be on the hot side – not super hot, but hot enough for most folks. High pressure will be in control, with the center of the high drifting eastward from the Middle Atlantic States to a position off the East Coast. Today’s wind field will be weak enough to allow a sea breeze to easily develop, and cool down coastal areas and for up to a few miles inland too. Tomorrow’s wind field will be a little bit stronger from the southwest, which is a wind off the water for the South Coast, Cape Cod, and parts of Cape Ann, so those will be your coolest areas. But other portions of the eastern shoreline can still see a sea breeze develop for part of the midday and afternoon hours as well. If Boston is going to reach 90 for the first time this year, it’s going to happen on Sunday, as I’m pretty confident a sea breeze will prevent it today. Tomorrow, even if we see the sea breeze there, they have a shot to reach 90 either before it happens or late in the day when it likely quits. So that might be the “most exciting” to track with the weather this weekend, since there is pretty much a zero shower / t-storm threat with the atmosphere being too stable, despite the heating up of the atmosphere. Things change Monday when a cold front slides into and across the region. While this is not likely to be a particularly fast-moving front, it will be moving along, and I feel that the timing of the front will be early enough in the day to prevent the strongest possible thunderstorms from forming. It’ll also present a great deal of cloudiness starting very early in the day, limiting heating, so it’ll end up about 10 degrees cooler than the weekend days, but more humid up until the front goes by. Will we get a widespread rainfall out of this? It’s possible, because we may see a solid band of showers, but it won’t be around for all that long and it being our only real chance of rain during this 5-day period, any benefit for our rainfall deficit and evolving drought situation will be limited. A cooler, drier air mass moves in for Tuesday with high pressure approaching the region, and the high center, while weak, will be right over our region with fair weather Wednesday – a day that would feature a bit of an inland warm-up while coastal areas see a sea breeze. We may see a bit more cloudiness later Wednesday pending the timing of an approaching disturbance from the west. At day-5 that’s a little difficult to pin down as it will likely be a very small, weak, and fast-moving feature.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84 coast, 84-91 inland. Dew point upper 50s to near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-86 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH with some local sea breeze eastern shores.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. More humid, dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms midday-afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Humid – dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W by late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with additional showers possible favoring RI and southeastern MA. Clearing overnight. Lows 56-63. Drying out with dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

High pressure will be the main controlling factor in the weather heading into and through the holiday weekend with mainly dry weather. A warming trend comes early in the period (June 30 / July 1), a weak frontal system comes through at some point around July 2 with the only shower / t-storm threat foreseen, and probably brief at that, and then a Canadian air mass arrives for the latter portion of the period, based on current timing expectations.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

A little more hinting at reinforcing cooler air from Canada on some guidance while other guidance shows a more seasonable westerly flow, so there is some uncertainty here. What I am fairly confident of at this point is that we stay in a mostly dry weather pattern.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-25-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

We’re finally about to get rid of the weather pattern that was causing the atmosphere to be confused about which way to send weather systems. Today, a low pressure circulation that was sitting nearby departs the area as things start to move from west to east again, but there is enough instability about that we will probably see a few afternoon showers popping up again, like yesterday. Unlike yesterday, these will be moving pretty much in the opposite direction (yesterday’s drifted from south to north, today’s will have a more north-to-south motion). The weekend outlook is a good one if you like the feel of summer, and hey, it’s just in time for the first weekend of astronomical summer. What great timing! We’ll have high pressure in control with a general southwesterly air flow but the high will be weak enough that some coastal sea breezes can still take place each day, while some inland areas make runs at 90 both days. Sunshine will be dominant during each day and the threat of any pop showers or thunderstorms will be nearly non-existent. Things change on Monday, however, as a cold front moves slowly across the region bringing our best chance of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity during this 5-day period. Timing of the system looks like it will produce most of the rainfall threat during the afternoon, but may need to adjust that a little bit as we get closer to it. Tuesday, a cooler and drier air mass is due to move in behind that front.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower possible during the afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90 except cooler coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Lowering humidity. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82. Wind 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

High pressure is expected to dominate with mostly fair weather for much of this period, temperatures warming to near to perhaps slightly above normal. There may be a weak disturbance or frontal system around at some point around the middle of the period to bring a brief shower and thunderstorm chance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

Seasonably warm weather with high pressure in control most of the time. One or two shower or thunderstorm chances may occur but pattern looks mainly dry. Shower / thunderstorm threat may increase later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-24-2022