Heat It, Cool It, Warm It, Pool It

8:44PM

Weather changes will be plenty for the next several days. First a hot and breezy Wednesday not without a thunderstorm threat in the afternoon and evening, especially northwest of Boston where some strong to severe storms are possible. This will be triggered by a cold front sliding in from the Great Lakes and nearby Canada. The details of the thunderstorms will be worked out and updated through comments and on the Facebook page (for those who have access to it).

By Thursday, the front responsible for the storms will also be introducing much cooler air, but the front itself maybe sluggish so clouds and a shower threat will linger especially in eastern areas for a while before improvement arrives. High pressure will bring this improvement as it starts to build in, and then will deliver a couple great days Friday and Saturday, with lower humidity but a warming trend. And then  the next change will be taking place as a trough of low pressure, again rather deep for the time of year, drops out of Canada into the Great Lakes and Midwest and sends increasing moisture this way during Sunday and Monday, at which time some significant shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to develop. The trough should start to lift into southeastern Canada and weaken by next Tuesday with improvement but still some risk of a shower as humidity will likely be on the higher side.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds and fog, especially coastal areas and Cape  Cod. Clear but hazy elsewhere. More humid. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Any low clouds and fog burning off early then hazy sunshine but developing clouds in the afternoon, some possibly building into thunderstorms and a few areas mainly northwest of Boston, and also a line of storms possibly approaching from the west by evening. Any storms may be strong. Humid. Highs from near 80 Cape Cod and 80s South Coast to around 90 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog late. Humid. Lows 65-70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, locally gusty near storms.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers through midday then slow clearing west to east. Lowering humidity. Highs in the 70s. Wind mostly N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 85.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 65. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 67. High 82.

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An Up To A Down

7:06AM

High pressure builds over the region today into Wednesday allowing more typical July warmth to invade the region, but only briefly, as a cold front will move into the region late Wednesday, putting an end to the short-lived warm spell by Thursday. But it does set us up for a nice Friday and Saturday before the next trough from the west brings shower threats Sunday into early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Areas of fog especially coastal locations early morning otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 70s immediate coast and Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but sea breezes near the coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to start but areas of low clouds and fog forming later. Lows 65-70. Wind light S to SW.

WEDNESDAY: Areas of low clouds and fog to start, then mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms may arrive in areas well north and west of Boston by late day. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod and some coastal areas, 80s to around 90 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers AM. Clearing PM. Low 62. High 77.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 85.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Low 65. High 80.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 65. High 80.

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The Week Ahead

6:30PM

Just beyond the mid point of July, it really is still early Summer, and we’ve had some very  nice weekends so far this season. This particular weekend may not have been as nice as many of the others but it wasn’t terrible either. But now it’s time to look ahead to the coming week!

On Monday we will find ourselves under the influence of a building high pressure ridge aloft but still low pressure on an old frontal boundary east of the region over the ocean. This means fair weather but air still modified by the cooler ocean. We get rid of that and get a land breeze going Tuesday and Wednesday, which will be much warmer days, almost hot! Almost… Well it may feel  hot to many because we have not had that many hot days so far this Summer.  Will anyone reach 90? If it is going to happen this most likely day is  Wednesday, which will have a moderate westerly wind ahead of an approaching cold front and high pressure aloft. This approaching front may set off isolated thunderstorms mainly well west and north of Boston late Wednesday with a better chance of more organized shower and thunderstorm activity holding off until late Wednesday night or Thursday, depending on the timing of the cold front. This front is expected to move along enough to allow fair weather and mild to warm, drier air to dominate the end of the week. Though it may not be completely cloud-free as some cooler air will be aloft and can initiate cloud development Friday and Saturday. A larger scale trough is expected to approach from the west and the weather may go downhill again before next weekend is over.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy South Coast / Cape Cod. Partly cloudy to mostly clear elsewhere. Lows 55-63, coolest interior valleys. Wind light NE to N.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 72-82 from coastal to inland areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63, again cooler interior valleys. Wind light E shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Increasing humidity. Highs 75-80 South Coast / Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorm possible late day far NW of Boston, scattered showers/thunderstorms night. Breezy. Humid. Low 66. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Low 70. High 82.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Low 64. High 82.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late showers. Low 64. High 80.

Posted in Weather | 106 Comments

Light Filter

10:25AM

High pressure will hold rain off this weekend, but will have a tougher battle keeping cloudiness away. Lots of high-level cloudiness will dominate today, filtering and dimming the sun. It will shine a little brighter at times as clouds are periodically thinning out as they battle high pressure and drier air from the north. Clouds will win the battle a bit more tonight into Sunday, becoming thicker, with more limited sun on Sunday morning into afternoon. The end of Sunday may turn out more like today as cloudiness starts to thin out again. At this time an area of rain from a developing low pressure are to the south is expected to stay just offshore of Cape Cod. With high pressure to the north and developing low pressure to the south, the air flow will be easterly, which will keep coastal areas the coolest, but also preventing inland areas from getting too warm, though it will be comfortable.

High pressure takes over for the first part of next week with more sun and warmer to hotter air moving in. By Wednesday, an approaching front and low pressure trough may set off a few thunderstorms, with more activity likely by Thursday as the front moves through. This front may be slow to exit late next week so a low confidence forecast will have some lingering cloudiness and perhaps a shower in it for Friday, but this may change.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Lots of high cloudiness – filtered to dim sun. Highs 72-77 coast, 78-83 inland. Wind light SE to E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light E to variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with middle cloudiness hiding sun much of time but thinning out later for a little more sun at least interior MA and southern NH later in the day. Highs in the 70s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM t-storms. Low 69. High 89.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/t-storms. Low 66. High 82.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 62. High 78.

Posted in Weather | 123 Comments

Friday AM Update

7:38AM

Quick update.

High pressure today – beautiful summer day. Low pressure to the south will get a little closer than previously anticipated, but it will not ruin the weekend. It will add some cloudiness to it, especially Sunday, along with a risk of some wet weather over Cape Cod at that time.

Next week looks a little more typical of mid to late July as high pressure strengthens, adds some heat, and a cold front tries to knock it back down bringing a risk of thunderstorms again by the middle of the week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70s  Cape Cod and immediate coast, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind light NW early then variable with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE to S.

SATURDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by increasing high cloudiness. Highs 70s Cape Cod and South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind light SE to S.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Wind light SE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of some rain Cape Cod / Islands. Highs in the 70s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 89.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated PM t-storms. Low 68. High 90.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers/t-storms. Low 68. High 84.

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Dew Point Down

9:18PM

After a few eventful days with areas of tropical downpours and some localized severe weather, a cold front is finally, slowly, about to push offshore. A final wave of low pressure sliding up along the front from south to north will prolong showers over Cape Cod tonight. But starting Thursday, and likely lasting into early next week, high pressure will dominate, along with lower humidity Thursday-Friday, and low to moderate humidity over the weekend and early next week. We will have to watch a potential area of low pressure just to the south around Monday, in case it ends up a little further north than currently anticipated. But this forecast will take an optimistic route, and you’ll find a whole lot of nice weather in it.

And here it is, for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds, with some lingering showers Cape Cod. Slowly drying out but remaining humid over Cape Cod. Lows in the 50s well inland, 60s near the coast. Wind light N to NW.

THURSDAY: Early clouds Cape Cod, otherwise mostly sunny to partly cloudy with some pop up fair weather clouds. Less humid all areas. Highs middle 70s inland hills and Cape Cod to around 80 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 50s inland valleys to lower 60s coast. Wind light NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 83, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 81, cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

Posted in Weather | 61 Comments

Topic: Tropical

11:33PM

Tropical air dominates ahead of a slow-moving cold front which will take until late Wednesday to clear southeastern New England. Until then, the threat of showers/downpours and some thunderstorms will continue. A cluster of showers/storms including some downpours will move south southwest to north northeast across parts of the region overnight, but during the day Tuesday only a few pop ups or small clusters of this activity is expected, as a more solid line of convection organizes well to the west. This line brings the best chance of severe storms into western New England during the afternoon, but signs suggest that this line will weaken and start to fall apart as it moves into southeastern New England during the evening of Tuesday. It will have to wait for another impulse coming up along the front to re-energize and bring a final around of downpours for Wednesday morning, impacting the commute. This wet weather may linger through the afternoon over Cape Cod but a drying trend should take place elsewhere as the front begins to push offshore. A shot of modified cool air will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday as the humidity breaks. A warm up will follow on Friday and Saturday as high pressure re-positions itself south of the region. By the middle and end of the weekend, clouds and an eventual shower threat is expected as more tropical moisture returns around the back side of this high pressure area, aided by an approaching low pressure trough from the west.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, downpours and thunderstorms possible. Muggy. Lows 65-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Pop up showers and thunderstorms with local heavy downpours. Many areas rain-free much of the time. Muggy. Highs 77-85. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west but becoming weaker and less numerous while pushing eastward through midnight, then increasing again from southwest to northeast overnight with more widespread downpours possibly by dawn. Muggy. Lows 65-70. Wind variable to SSW 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers/downpours and embedded thunderstorms morning-midday most areas, midday-afternoon Cape Cod. Breaking clouds from the west later. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, mostly from the S trending to W.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 79.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 65. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 78.

Posted in Weather | 276 Comments

The Week Ahead

12:03AM

A frontal system will sit over the region Monday through early Wednesday, finally scooting eastward and offshore during Wednesday. This front separates tropical air flowing up from the south ahead of it from cooler and drier air behind it, including some unseasonably cool air that will be moving southward out of Canada into the upper Midwest. This air will arrive in modified form later Wednesday into Thursday, but before that we’ll have to deal with occasional downpours and thunderstorms. Though widespread severe weather is not likely, some individual thunderstorms could be strong to severe with anything ranging from flash flooding to hail to damaging wind. Again this activity should not be widespread, but all should keep up to date on conditions over the next few days.

Fair weather should arrive by late Wednesday and especially Thursday into late week, with a gradual warming trend following the cool shot. By later next weekend, we may be back into another unsettled weather system with clouds and a shower threat.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably to mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be strong to locally severe. Humid. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong. Muggy. Lows 65-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any storms may be strong. Muggy. Highs 78-85. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: AM showers / PM breaking clouds. Low 64. High 76.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 79.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 66. High 82.

Posted in Weather | 132 Comments

Weekend Outlook / Taming The Media (I Wish)

7:55PM

First, the weekend. Short and to the point. High pressure will be in control Saturday and it will be a wonderful Summer day. On Sunday, it will start very nice but a disturbance rapidly approaching from the west leading humidity back into the region will bring increasing clouds and an eventual risk of some rain from west to east in the afternoon and evening. It won’t turn out to be a wash-out, but some areas are likely to get wet before the end of the day. If the timing of this disturbance is slower than I expect right now, we’ll salvage most of Sunday rain-free. Greatest chance of a completely dry day will be from Rhode Island and far southeastern MA through Cape Cod.

Next week? Spare me the drama. Ok, yes there will be a somewhat significant trough of low pressure which includes an closed upper level low pressure area somewhat resembling the infamous “polar vortex” of this winter-past. But don’t let the media’s depiction of this slightly anomalous feature (for July) get to you. These features do occur in Summer, and one will take place next week, setting up a chilly outbreak of air, in comparison to average, coming out of Canada into the Midwest, eventually making its way to the Northeast in modified form. Before that happens, there will be a clash of air masses, with that cool air advancing in from Canada clashing with the warm/humid air that will be lead in by  Sunday’s approaching disturbance. This will set up a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Monday-Wednesday period. This far out, it’s impossible to time these and also nearly impossible to predict the intensity of showers/storms. Suffice it to say, there is some risk for significant rain and even some severe weather, but I’m not going to alarm anybody this far out by predicting some giant long lasting event of severe storms and flooding. I’ll watch the potential as it gets closer and update accordingly.

By late next week, we should go from a dry/cool day Thursday to a dry/warmer day  Friday as things move along in the atmosphere.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Any scattered clouds vanish with a clear sky and bright full moon. Lows 55-64, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 70s South Coast & Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-66. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny start then increasing clouds west to east. Chance of light rain or showers by mid to late afternoon especially north and west of Boston. Highs 70s  South Coast & Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 67. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 54. High 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

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On The Good Edge

7:18AM

A final round of thunderstorms held together late Wednesday night to bring a brief soaking, some gusty wind, vivid lightning, and big thunder rumbles to areas of north central and northeastern MA and southern NH. The front responsible for this is now settling just offshore and will be located fairly close to the coast through early Friday. A couple of low pressure waves moving up along the front will likely remain far enough east to keep most wet weather offshore (except Nantucket this morning), but some cloudiness may slide up across the area, especially southeastern MA including Cape Cod, at times through early Friday. The front will finally push far enough east for all areas to enjoy a fantastic Saturday with lots of sun and warm air as high pressure dominates. This will quickly give way to a disturbance approaching from the west on Sunday, which will bring clouds and eventually a chance of showers. Unsettled and more humid weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as a broad trough approaches from the west. A shot of unseasonably cool air will be moving out of Canada into the north central US during this time and some of that air is due by the middle of next week here in the Northeast.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Clouds southeastern MA and RI especially morning-midday including showers Nantucket, with more sun to the northwest, then mostly sunny afternoon. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return to southeastern  MA, mostly clear to the northwest. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds depart southeastern MA morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 64. High 84, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers possible. Low 64. High 81.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 76.

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