Wednesday Forecast Update

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5…
No changes to previous discussion regarding today into the weekend. To summarize, the heat is on today and Thursday. The chance of any thunderstorms is so minimal today and I don’t think it will happen in the forecast area so it won’t appear in the forecast. Thursday, on the other hand, the chance increases later in the day and especially evening as a cold front approaches. I’m still not convinced everybody gets hit tomorrow. It will depend on timing, development, orientation, and movement of cluster or line storms. More on that later. Quite muggy the next 2 days, less humidity Friday and Saturday before it creeps back in Sunday but with mainly dry weather Friday through the weekend other than a risk of an isolated storm in a few locations on the weekend, especially Sunday.
TODAY: Hazy sunshine. Humid. Highs 88-95. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear and hazy. Muggy. Lows 68-75. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Chance of late day and nighttime t-storms. Humid. Lows 68-75. Highs 88-95.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Lows 65-72. Highs 85-92.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 63-70. Highs 86-93.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Risk of isolated thunderstorms. Lows 65-72. Highs 87-94.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)…
Warm and humid with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms August 3-5. Dry, warm, less humid by August 6. Humidity returns at the end of the period with a risk of showers.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)…
Ridges of high pressure in the central US and off the East Coast with a very weak trough between them will be the dominant pattern. Near normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures result.

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Tuesday Forecast Update

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5…
The old frontal boundary is just about gone, but today’s kicker for potential thunderstorms will be a disturbance or trough moving through from north to south during the afternoon and a couple of convergence zones between weak sea breezes and weak land breezes. The most likely chance to see activity today will be within 30 miles of the coast of NH and the eastern coast of MA. A few initial storms may fire up along a boundary in southeastern MA as early as noon or 1PM, but it’s unclear if storms will be able to form here because of a layer of warm/dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Eventually that layer should move away. Whether those initial storms form or not, another area of showers/thunderstorms should get going in southeastern NH and/or northeastern MA and redevelop their way south and southeast along the coastal plain of MA during the course of the afternoon. Because of the variability of convection, some storms may be strong to even marginally severe in some areas and barely impact others, so it will be important to follow the trends during the day. By tonight, all activity diminishes. Wednesday, a stronger layer of warm air above will probably impede any storm development, but by Thursday, an approaching cold front will bring a much better chance of showers/thunderstorms, possibly in squall line form, by later in the day or sometime at night, depending on timing. Some areas will see a heatwave today through Thursday, but Boston likely will not, as I don’t think they will make 90 due to the earlier onset of a sea breeze there. Friday/Saturday will both be very warm to hot days but with lower humidity than the next 3 days have.
TODAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in southeastern NH and eastern MA midday and afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 interior. Wind light SW to W except coastal sea breezes developing.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and hazy. Muggy. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sunshine. Humid. Highs 88-95. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Chance of late day and nighttime t-storms. Humid. Lows 68-75. Highs 88-95.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Lows 65-72. Highs 85-92.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 63-70. Highs 86-93.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)…
Hot and humid with isolated thunderstorms August 2. Warm and humid with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms August 3-5. Dry, warm, less humid by August 6.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)…
Ridges of high pressure in the central US and off the East Coast with a very weak trough between. This pattern is typically warm and humid here with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms.

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Monday Forecast Update

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5…
Old cold frontal boundary sits in the area and slowly dissipates through Tuesday as high pressure builds aloft and slowly increases the heat while the humidity hangs on. The HHH is finally here for midweek but without the storm threat Wednesday before it returns later Thursday with the arrival of a weak cold front. This front will drop the humidity and take the edge off the heat by the end of the week.
TODAY: Variably cloudy and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-86. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Muggy. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Scattered afternoon showers/t-storms. Humid. Highs 80-88. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sunshine. Humid. Lows 65-72. Highs 88-95.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Chance of late day and nighttime t-storms. Humid. Lows 68-75. Highs 90-97.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Lows 65-72. Highs 85-92.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)…
Very warm to hot weekend, dry August 1, humid August 2 with a chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Warm and humid August 3-5 with a risk of showers/thunderstorms daily.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)…
Ridges of high pressure in the central US and off the East Coast with a very weak trough between. This pattern is typically warm and humid here with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms.

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Sunday Forecast Update

8:31AM
1:47PM UPDATE

DAYS 1-5…
Updated the original morning post based on new info which is going to prompt me to increase the area of risk for showers/t-storms Monday and add some to Tuesday’s forecast as well, as it appears the cold frontal boundary which arrives Sunday night becomes stationary and only slowly dissipates though Tuesday. Therefore, there will be enough focus around for some activity.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms early through mid morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s, a few lower 80s possible interior with any sun. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-72. Highs 86-93.
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sun. Lows 67-74. Highs 88-95.
THURSDAY: Hazy sun. Chance of thunderstorms evening/night. Lows 70-77. Highs 90-97.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31-AUGUST 4)…
Dry and very warm July 31-August 1. Humid with showers/thunderstorms possible at times August 2-4.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)…
Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

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Saturday Forecast Update

8:58AM

DAYS 1-5…
First, the weekend: Northeast to east air flow dominates today as high pressure builds to the north of New England. This feature was well-forecast by several of the medium range models for many days in advance. I actually thought it would take place a little further east and we’d have a more southerly flow initially, but during the last few days it became more apparent that the model forecast were likely to be correct. Anyway, the result of this correct model forecast is lots of low cloudiness for parts of southeastern NH and eastern MA especially this morning, trying but failing to completely make it onto Cape Cod and into RI, but also breaking up by midday for at least partial sun where the day started with a low overcast. During this time, above all of this there will be some increasing high and mid level cloudiness from the west northwest as a warm front begins its approach. This warm front closes in tonight as clouds thicken and eventually showers arrive overnight. The front will push eastward across the region Sunday morning which may see additional showers and even a few thunderstorms. As we get into the warmer and humid air behind that front, it may not clear all that much as clouds remain dominant, but the rain chances should go down, but not to zero. Any breaks and sunshine could ignite a few isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon, and an approaching cold front may trigger a few more Sunday night. So while no wash-out, Sunday will be unsettled.
First few days of next week: The cold front that approaches on Sunday night will wash out and dissipate over southeastern New England Monday, but provide just enough focus for the potential of pop up showers and thunderstorms. Also, not looking for a push of dry air with this front, so humidity levels will drop only slightly at best. As this is taking place, upper level high pressure will be building across the East Coast of the US and finally allow a stretch of hot weather to get underway in southern New England Tuesday and into midweek…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs in the 70s, coolest at the beaches. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers develop west to east late at night. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms early through mid morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s, a few lower 80s possible interior with any sun. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 78-85.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 65-72. Highs 86-93.
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sun. Lows 67-74. Highs 88-95.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30-AUGUST 3)…
HHH weather Thursday July 30 with a chance of thunderstorms late day or nighttime with a cold front. Return to fair, less humid, but very warm Friday July 31 and Saturday August 1. HHH again Sunday August 2 with a risk of showers/thunderstorms. Fair and warm Monday August 3.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)…
Pattern favors showers/thunderstorms very early in the period then mostly fair weather returning. Temperatures near to above normal.

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Friday Forecast Update

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5…
Strong disturbance swings through from north to south this afternoon and evening and the combination of this feature, which represents lots of cold air aloft, and sun-heated ground from morning sunshine, will kick off showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. These move out from north to south by tonight. High pressure builds down from Canada Saturday but this will allow winds to turn from north to east and result in a day with more cloudiness at times and cooler air. A warm front approaches Sunday with lots of clouds and a shower threat. A cold front crosses the region Monday with another shower threat. There is not much cool air behind this front, however, and a quick turn to Summer heat will get underway by Tuesday as a high pressure ridge moves into the eastern US.
TODAY: Bright sun giving way to developing clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms moving from north to south during the afternoon and early evening. Any showers/storms may produce gusty winds and hail. Highs 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind N to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-82.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29-AUGUST 2)…
Hot and humid July 29-31. Chance of showers/thunderstorms about July 31. Warm and less humid August 1-2.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)…
Temperatures above normal. Rainfall below normal.

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Thursday Forecast Update

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5…
This forecast is brought to you by the fact that there are no changes to the previous discussion at this time. But in case you don’t feel like going back to re-read it, here is a brief summary: Westerly flow, dry and warm air, and a weak trough aloft combine to make very nice weather today but along with some decorative afternoon clouds. Don’t think any showers will form this time like yesterday but will watch for it in case. By Friday, a spoke of energy will rotate around a slightly deepened trough and bring more cloudiness and a risk of a few showers along with slightly cooler air. When the weekend arrives, a narrow high pressure area will build down from the north and bring fair weather with a slight increase in humidity later Saturday and a more significant increase on Sunday ahead of a cold front. This front should hold off long enough to allow most of Sunday to be rain-free, but showers may arrive by late day or night. Shower threat for Monday as the front will be slow to cross the region.
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-85 except 70s Nantucket. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to clear. Lows 60-65 except some upper 50s interior valleys. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Highs 75-82.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Highs 77-84.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers late day or night. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-85.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 62-70. Highs 76-83.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28-AUGUST 1)…
Will watch for a disturbance passing by sometime in the middle of the period with showers and thunderstorms possible but overall a dry and very warm pattern is likely.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)…
Expect above normal temperatures near near to below normal rainfall during this period.

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Wednesday Forecast Update

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5…
A weak trough aloft, high pressure at the surface, and a dry westerly flow means great Summer weather today and Thursday with bright sun, some developing fair-weather clouds, and warm/dry air days with comfortable nights. By Friday, a spoke of energy will rotate around a slightly deepened trough and bring more cloudiness and a risk of a few showers along with slightly cooler air. When the weekend arrives, a narrow high pressure area will build down from the north and bring fair weather with a slight increase in humidity Saturday and more-so Sunday as a cold front starts to approach from the west. At this time, thinking that the approaching front will be slow enough to allow most of Sunday to be free of any rain threat.
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-85 except 70s Nantucket. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to clear. Lows 60-65 except some upper 50s interior valleys. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-85 except 70s Nantucket. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers. Lows 58-65. Highs 75-82.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Highs 77-84.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers at night? Lows 60-68. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)…
Cold front brings showers/thunderstorms for at least part of July 27. Next system may bring a few showers/storms late July 28 into July 29 with fair weather returning for the July 30-31 period. Temperatures near to above normal during the final days of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)…
August starts out with near to above normal temperatures near near to below normal rainfall during its first several days.

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Tuesday Forecast Update

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5…
Boston has hit 90 or higher 2 days, and if they make it today, it’s an official heatwave, the first in 2 years for the city. It may not happen. Again, it comes down to wind direction and it looks like it may turn southeast there before it makes 90 today. No major changes to previous discussion/forecast. Cold front approaches today, may produce a few showers/thunderstorms this evening. Great weather Wednesday/Thursday. A weak trough may bring more cloudiness for Friday. Nice weather returns Saturday.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of late-day and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to SE in coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a possible shower/thunderstorm early then clearing. Lows in the 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 78-85.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 56-63. Highs 76-83.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 55-62. Highs 75-82.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-62. Highs 76-83.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)…
Cold front brings possible showers/thunderstorms July 26-27. Mostly dry and warmer July 28-30.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31-AUGUST 4)…
Continued expectation of above normal temperatures and mostly below normal rainfall during the period.

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Monday Forecast Update

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5…
After a long delay for Boston’s first 90 of the Summer (they finally got there at 1:53PM Sunday), they actually have a shot at a heatwave if things happen just right. Heat is still hanging around today and Tuesday and will wait until a second cold front sweeps across the region Tuesday evening with a few showers and thunderstorms, introducing a cooler and drier air mass for the second half of the week. Before that, the boundary that caused yesterday’s storms well north and well west of Boston will be sitting over southeastern MA today and will ignite a few showers and thunderstorms in that region midday into the afternoon hours.
TODAY: Cloudiness along the South Coast and across Cape Cod to start with sunshine dominating elsewhere, then sun returns briefly to South Coast before clouds redevelop across that region with scattered midday and afternoon showers and thunderstorms, moving offshore later in the day while elsewhere remains mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s South Coast, 88-93 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light W to SW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of late-day and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 78-85.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 56-63. Highs 76-83.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Highs 75-82.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)…
Warming trend weekend of July 25-26 with mainly dry weather Saturday and a chance of showers/thunderstorms by later Sunday. Showers/thunderstorms possible Monday July 27. Dry and warmer for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30-AUGUST 3)…
Continued expectation of above normal temperatures and mostly below normal rainfall during the period.

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