DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)
So yesterday the atmosphere decided to make showers that were not really forecast (except by a couple short range models if one was paying close enough attention). I did not put them in my forecast, thinking fair-weather clouds were sufficient to predict, not expecting them to grow enough to produce showers. But they did, albeit isolated. Still, if you were under one of these, they did produce a few downpours, and a bonus rainbow or two (I saw a brief double. In fact, I saw a rain bow and in the opposite part of the sky a sun dog, seeing both at the same time for the first time, which was cool!). So I’ll take the minor forecast miss and yet another lesson learned for that nice little bonus at the end of my day. Today, we have these showers in the forecast, as a disturbance will be crossing the region this afternoon and early evening, but once again they should be fairly isolated in coverage, but should you be visited by one, a down pour could occur for a brief time. Primary window for activity today, which may include some thunder too, is about 2:00 p.m. to about sunset (mid afternoon through early evening). After that we’ll see clearing and a refreshing air mass reinforced, setting us up for a beautiful day on Saturday with lots of sun with mild and dry air. Now, our pattern is improved over recent abundant overcast and rainfall, but we’re still somewhat unsettled, and that will be evident Sunday as the next disturbance moves into the mean trough position in our region, a warm front bringing lots of clouds and occasional wet weather, especially in the afternoon and evening based on current timing. These systems can move more quickly than prognosticated by even shorter-range guidance so it would not surprise me if showers are already nearby in the morning. Based on this, the forecast wording will reflect a shower threat all day, but but at this time it seems likely that the greatest chance and highest coverage will occur as we get deeper into the day, if you want to take the chance on planning something outside. A warm front will push through later Sunday, and a cold front will follow this, probably passing by during Monday morning. Monday will be a day we’ll likely see our shower chances start out higher, then drop off with fair and slightly less humid air following a Sunday night humidity spike. Tuesday should be a mostly dry and seasonably warm day, but a weak disturbance moving by may be enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, but being several days away, the certainty is not there, and I’ll take a closer look at that as we go along.
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms mostly mid afternoon on. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog lower elevation areas. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances increasing throughout the day. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring the morning-midday hours. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)
Overall pattern is drier, but not without shower/thunderstorm chances, which seem highest from later July 28 into July 29 at this time, based on best timing of strongest disturbances coming along a mostly west to northwest flow. Temperatures for the period averaging close to normal.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)
Overall pattern of west to northwesterly air flow, with no major heat, temperatures near normal, and a drier overall regime with limited shower chances.