Tuesday June 22 2021 Forecast (7:42AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

A cold front will move across the region from northwest to southeast today. The extensive cloud cover ahead of the front and the early timing of the frontal boundary will work to prevent a significant thunderstorm flare up. A few clusters of heavier showers and possible thunderstorms are most likely from a Boston-Hartford line southeastward during this afternoon. However I’m not expecting any of these to become severe, though some may produce heavy downpours that make travel temporarily difficult. Otherwise, it just looks like a general area of showers will move up across the WHW forecast area from southwest to northeast this afternoon into this evening before moving away, at which time a dry, cooler air mass arrives. This sets up great early summer weather for midweek with a northwest breeze, sun & passing clouds Wednesday, and a sunny Thursday with light winds and a developing sea breeze, both days having very low humidity. High pressure which moves in from the Great Lakes Wednesday and right across the region Thursday will shift offshore by Friday and a warm front will approach the region with more cloudiness moving in during that day. There will be a shower threat Friday night or first thing Saturday as the front goes by and then we’ll find ourselves in a warm, more humid air mass for the start of the weekend. But any shower and thunderstorm threat with the next cold front should remain well west of the WHW forecast area Saturday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general showers and thunderstorms midday and afternoon, with thunderstorms / downpours most likely in eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 53-60. Dew point falling significantly to the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point in the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point in the 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point rising slightly to lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point holding in lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 75-82, cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Fog patches forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Cold front moves into the region from west to east with warm/humid weather June 27 and an increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms, especially west and north of Boston, depending on expected timing. Frontal boundary may stay nearby June 28-29 with additional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms and warm/humid conditions. Front should push offshore by June 30 but upper low may produce a few additional showers or thunderstorms before drier weather arrives from the west end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

A weak frontal boundary may cross the region somewhere in the first couple days of this period with a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms, but the overall trend is for a westerly air flow and typical summertime warmth with mostly rain-free weather and moderate levels of humidity overall.

Monday June 21 2021 Forecast (7:27AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

Summer has arrived and this first full day of it will surely make you know it. Heat and humidity will be the story of the day as high pressure offshore pumps that air in from the south. A gusty breeze will counteract some of the heat if you are outside, however. As a cold front approaches New England from the west, it will likely spawn a line of thunderstorms in NY today that will make it into far western New England by this evening before fading out as it tries to move eastward, having run out of support to survive. Only a spot pop-up storm is possible well in advance of this during the afternoon, but even these I believe should stay outside the WHW forecast area. A tropical low pressure area (maybe classified as a tropical storm) will be passing to the southeast of New England on Tuesday. Once thought to have a shot at bringing our region more widespread rainfall, all it will do is add a bit of moisture to the cold front that is moving across the region during the day, bringing the chance of showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. The greatest chance for any heavier downpours may be over southeastern MA and Cape Cod as that area has the chance to warm the most before the front arrives. Regardless of rainfall coverage and intensity, the front does clear the region by Tuesday evening at which time the air mass will change as the humidity breaks and much drier air flows in from Canada via the Great Lakes. High pressure will move across the region by Thursday providing another very nice day, then offshore Friday, at which time a warm front will approach then cross the area from south to north, bringing more cloudiness and the risk of some light rainfall or shower activity as the humidity starts to creep back up again…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point rising to 70-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Foggy areas especially near South Coast. Isolated showers possible. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms especially midday and afternoon, greatest chance for heaviest and most widespread rainfall southeastern MA & RI. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A period of light rain or a few showers possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

A cold front will approach from the west then move into the region during the course of the June 26-27 weekend, with Saturday having only a small risk of late-day showers/thunderstorms mainly well to the west of Boston and Sunday having the better chance of showers/storms in the region. With high pressure offshore the frontal boundary may hang around for a couple days, with additional shower/t-storm chances, before being kicked offshore by a stronger westerly flow by the end of the period when an upper low may bring a few additional showers.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

A weak frontal boundary may cross the region somewhere in the first few days of July with a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms, but the overall trend is for a westerly air flow and typical summertime warmth with mostly rain-free weather and moderate levels of humidity overall.

Sunday June 20 2021 Forecast (7:42AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)

We’re going through the final hours of spring, but the atmosphere around here has already moved onto summer. Technically, the summer solstice occurs at 11:31 p.m. tonight, when the Earth’s wobble reaches the point which puts our sun angle at its highest of the year before it begins its long journey back the other way. But don’t waste time lamenting that the climb is done. Summer is just about to get underway and it’s weeks before we really notice a change in the daylight. I’d also like to wish any dads reading this a Happy Father’s Day! In our area it will be a very nice day for outdoor activity! It might not look that way initially in a good portion of the region that starts the day under a canopy of clouds, leftover from a departing disturbance. This disturbance was responsible for triggering a fairly widespread rain of showers and thunderstorms to the south of I-90 last night. But today, high pressure builds in and the humidity will be lower to the north and still moderate to the south, as the push of driest air is not all that strong. It will also be quite the warm day today. Tonight, the dew point starts to come up as we get into a stronger southwesterly air flow and higher dew point air just to the south starts to shift northward. This will set up a hot and muggy Monday as high pressure shifts offshore and the next cold front sits back to the west of New England. As that front starts to draw closer to the region later in the day and the first of the tropical moisture in the air mass that contains a tropical low from the Gulf of Mexico, some shower and thunderstorm activity may arrive in western New England, but for now I expect that this activity will occur outside the WHW forecast area during the afternoon. During Monday night, however, the continued approach of this front and additional moisture advecting into New England from the south will increase the chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, a trend that will continue into much of Tuesday as the front finally moves into and crosses the region from west to east. While the actual remnant low from the Gulf of Mexico, or what’s left of it, probably passes just southeast of New England, it will have added humidity to the air and fuel for the front to work on. Once that front goes by, in comes a fresh polar air mass via Canada and the Great Lakes and we’ll see pleasant, comfortable early summer weather by the middle of the week as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Wednesday then right over the region by Thursday. That would make Wednesday the “northwest wind” day that feels coolest and driest, and Thursday the pleasantly mild to warm summer day with slightly cooler sea breezes at the beaches.

TODAY: Early clouds exit from west to east, then sunny mid through late morning. Sunshine mixed with pop up fair weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s, highest near the South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind 10-20 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Foggy areas especially near South Coast. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 70s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)

High pressure shifts offshore. Expect a warm front to pass by sometime June 25 with some cloudiness and perhaps an episode or two of showers. Most of the June 26-27 weekend should be rain-free but the shower and thunderstorm threat will be just west of the region Saturday and likely shift a little eastward so that the WHW forecast area has a chance of a few showers and storms in the area by later on Sunday. June 28-29 stand the best chance of showers/storms with a front in the region. Obviously, the further out in time we get, the lower the forecast confidence, but this is how I foresee things playing out at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

Upper level low pressure may hang around to end June with additional showers/storms possible, then a warmer/drier trend possible thereafter as we get into a more westerly air flow.

Saturday June 19 2021 Forecast (8:10AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

A warm front has nearly completed its journey across the region as of the time of this blog writing, and only a few lingering showers associated with it are traversing southeastern New England early this morning, soon to exit, leaving the vast majority of the day free of any shower threat. This is a slightly different forecast than previously, which had a shower and storm threat this afternoon, but right now it looks like the air will be stable enough to prevent more than a brief pop-up shower/storm in isolated locations, and that the energy for showers and storms won’t really arrive until tonight, with a cold front that decided to hang back to the west before moving through. And by then, we’ll have lost a lot of daytime heating, leaving other atmospheric dynamics responsible for triggering and maintaining showers and storms, and the best of that may be passing across far southern portions of the region. What does that mean? It means that the shower and thunderstorm threat will most likely occur during the evening hours and the greatest chance of heaviest activity will be toward the South Coast, but we’ll have to monitor all areas, just to be sure. So if you have outdoor plans this afternoon, you can relax a little but still keep an eye out, and if you have outdoor plans this evening, be a little bit more aware. Still, I think most people get away with nothing more than a passing shower first thing today and again sometime this evening, and many see nothing at all. Any early clouds exit first thing Sunday as the cold front moves offshore, leaving us with a very warm day as there is not much cool air behind that front, but fairly comfortable air as the dew points which peak in the lower 60s today fall back to the upper 50s for Sunday. But don’t get “comfortable” (pun intended) because humidity is set to increase Monday and Tuesday. The higher dew point air will be re-introduced to the region as a warm front quietly passes through the region early Monday. The trend regarding that Gulf of Mexico low pressure area by guidance has been to either keep it as a compact low passing just south of New England or to dissipate it and have some of its moisture become involved with an approaching cold front. Guidance has also been split on the timing of that cold front, for example one model bringing it through on the earlier side Tuesday while another holds it back until later. The timing of that front with respect to daytime heating will have implications on how significant our shower and thunderstorm threat will be that day provided the Gulf low does not have direct impact and make it more of an overcast day anyway. So there are still some questions to answer regarding the forecast for Tuesday for our region. Regardless of those details, the cold front will be offshore and a pleasant polar air mass will arrive by Wednesday of next week.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Early to mid morning isolated showers eastern areas. Slight chance of a brief isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Highs 83-90, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, greatest chance of thunderstorms may be closer to the South Coast region. Patches of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early clouds eastern areas, then sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early-day and late-day clouds with sunshine dominant between. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible especially northwest of Boston in the evening. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 80-87, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

Canadian high pressure brings fair weather and low humidity to start, then the high shifts offshore during the period with an increase in humidity and eventually shower and thunderstorm chances, especially June 26-28.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

A bit more west-to-east flow with overall drier but seasonably warm weather, and one or two disturbances to bring a shower or t-storm risk.

Friday June 18 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

The high pressure area that gave us nice weather during the last couple days will continue to treat us today, but its center has shifted to the Middle Atlantic States and this will turn the wind southwesterly here, warming us up with most places (except the South Coast) getting into the 80s for highs under the June sun, which is just a couple days away from reaching its pinnacle in our sky. The summer solstice will occur at 11:31 p.m. Sunday night, June 20, at the very end of the weekend. But what about the weather over the weekend? Well, while the sun does shine today you’ll notice an increase in high cloudiness at times, and by the end of the day the sun, at least in parts of the region, may be setting behind a deck of thicker clouds. This is the signal of a warm front approaching the region from low pressure moving into southeastern Canada. As that low treks along, it will first drag that warm front across New England overnight and early Saturday morning, with lots of clouds and some scattered areas of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm in a few locations. We’ll bust into the warm and more humid air on the other side of that front during Saturday morning, and any time during the day and into at least early Saturday night, until a cold front passes through, we can see some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. It definitely won’t rain everywhere and where it does rain it definitely won’t rain a great percentage of the time, but if you have outdoor plans keep an eye on the sky (or a reliable radar app) and have a plan should a shower or storm visit your location. Once the front clears the region, while Sunday will be nearly as warm as Saturday, it will be less humid as a drier air mass moves in, but for a short stay. The high pressure area that delivers that brief drying air will slide offshore by Monday and the humidity, along with some heat, will come right back. And there is still a question to answer regarding Tuesday, but it’s day 5 in the forecast so we have time. That question: Do the remains of tropical low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico make it all the way to New England to add some heavy rainfall to the mix ahead of an approaching cold front on Tuesday? Still not sure. The guidance has trended a bit south and some of it a bet less emphatic with this feature the last 24 hours so we’ll see where it goes with this today. It’s likely to be a very small feature in relation to many lows we track, so it won’t be easy to pin it down either way. We at least get the threat of showers/storms at some point that day from the approaching / passing front, details dependent on frontal timing, with the wildcard of whether or not that low has any impact on the situation that day well, so for now, day 5’s wording will be general with fine-tuning to come in future updates…

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers early morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered showers/thunderstorms evening. Clearing but patchy fog forming at lower elevations overnight. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible mainly interior locations then a chance of showers evening-night. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 80-87, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

High pressure from Canada moves in via the Great Lakes with fair, mild, dry weather early in this period, then the high slides to and eventually off the Mid Atlantic Coast with increased warmth and humidity, and eventually some shower and thunderstorm opportunities, later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Northward displacement of the jet stream becomes more pronounced during these days with early summer warmth, somewhat higher humidity at times, and a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with passing disturbances.

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