Drought Dent

3:54PM

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND DISCUSSION…

Post ridge, post cold front, now we have upper level low pressure sitting near to just southeast of New England and an associated surface low as well. Enough moisture is also present to result in periods of rain especially over southern and eastern portions of the WHW forecast area, which has developed today on the final day of September, and will continue tomorrow, the first day of October. By Thursday, low pressure will start to pull away and we’ll trend drier. A sliver of sunshine is expected on Friday between the departing low and another approaching trough from the west. This approaching trough will result in a wet day on Saturday with more beneficial rain possible. These few rain events will put a small dent in the developing drought conditions over southeastern New England, though they won’t even come close to putting an end to it.

After a drying trend Sunday into Monday, another system from the west brings a chance of showers by Tuesday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog. Temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast by Wednesday afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds remain. Lows 50-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds break but limited sun at best. Highs in the 60s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM showers likely. Low 51. High 64.

SUNDAY: Sun & clouds, gusty breeze. Low 48. High 65.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 68.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 52. High 66.

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Ridge Out

5;46PM

DISCUSSION…

The big high pressure ridge that provided the Summery weekend is now a memory and after the cold front that passed from the north Monday, a more onshore flow will dominate southern New England into midweek before turning more southerly later this week.  Less sun and warmth, more clouds but not much wet weather will be the ruling factors. But by Saturday, a trough of low pressure from the west will bring the first shot at widespread beneficial rain in a while, then continue eastward so that the second half of the weekend should be salvaged for outdoor activities.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog and drizzle. Lows 55-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy though a little partial sun is possible west of  Boston during the afternoon. Patchy fog and drizzle. Chance of light rain morning and midday mainly southeast of Boston. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Isolated showers possible. Lows 55-60. Wind light E.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Chance of light rain. Highs in the 60s. Wind E to SE.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 68.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 53. High 66.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM showers likely. Low 55. High 66.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 51. High 63.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 48. High 64.

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The Week Ahead

5:31PM

DISCUSSION…

The first weekend of Autumn was more like Summer than some of the weekends during the actual Summer, featuring 100% sunshine with high temperatures well into the 80s in many areas. The big ridge of high pressure responsible for this weather is weakening and sinking to the south and will allow a cold front to push through southeastern New England from north to south Monday, bringing some increase in clouds and a turn to cooler air. Then a more onshore flow will be dominant Tuesday through midweek with weak upper level low pressure overhead. This will result in clouds being dominant and temperatures on the cooler side, though not too chilly. By late week, a more southerly flow is expected ahead of an approaching trough from the west, so that by next weekend at least some wet weather is probable.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-55 inland valleys, 55-60 elsewhere. Light wind.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-80 by early afternoon then cooling later in the day. Wind light variable becoming NE 10-20 MPH from north to south midday and afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog overnight. Lows 55-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Highs 60-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 67.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 51. High 66.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers likely. Low 54. High 66.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers possible. Low 50. High 65.

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A Weekend High

3:25PM

High pressure at the surface and aloft will sit over New England this weekend, creating clear and warm weather but without humidity – perfect for outdoor activities whether you are indulging in early Autumn traditions or still trying to hang onto Summer as long as you can.

By Monday, we’ll still be in the warm airmass but a cold front will be approaching from the north and may toss some clouds into the region and not allow it to get as warm as the previous 2 days in most locations. This front will settle south of the region for the final day of September and the first day of October (Tuesday-Wednesday) with lots of clouds and somewhat cooler air, though not that chilly. The front is expected to try to creep back northward as a warm front on Thursday but the weather next week is a little suspect with that front trying to come by and possible low pressure trying to form to the southeast of New England while a new high builds north of the region. So the late-week part of the forecast will carry less confidence than usual at this time.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 40s interior valleys, 50s elsewhere. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs around 80 except 70s coast. Light wind with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 50 interior valleys to around 60 coast. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 80s inland and 70s coast. Light wind with sea breezes.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 75.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 50. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 49. High 62.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 51. High 66.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 70.

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Pardon The Interruption

7:27AM

One interruption today thanks to low pressure moving up from the south, then making a right hook and heading out to sea – but close enough so that clouds dominate and some wet weather moves in as well. Most of the rain will occur along and south of the Mass Pike but some may push a little further north of there later today into tonight. It all pulls away by early Friday and high pressure rebuilds over the region and holds through the weekend into Monday, with a warm-up, feeling a bit like Summer. A cold front from the north arrives by Tuesday putting an end to that particular Summery spell.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN  NEW ENGLAND…

TODAY: Cloudy but brighter at times southern NH. Rain arriving in southern MA and RI, may push northward to areas around the Mass Pike later. Highs in the 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain most likely southern half of MA through RI and a chance of a little light rain to the north before ending and clearing toward dawn. Lows in the 50s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 60s coast to lower 70s inland. Wind light NE to N.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Clear overnights with patchy fog valley areas. Sunny both days. Lows in the 60s. Highs around 80, cooler coastal areas.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Highs around 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs around 60.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.

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What Was That You Said About Dry Weather For Days?

7:22PM

Ok it may not rain everywhere on Thursday to early Friday, but the threat has presented itself, and is most pronounced for areas south of the Mass Turnpike as it stands now. This is because it looks like developing low pressure down the coast, though not very strong, will be able to drift northeastward just enough to take advantage of a slight weakness in the ridge of high pressure centered just north of New England. So the string of what looked like many days of sunshine will probably be interrupted. There is still some uncertainty as to where the  rain cut-off will be and just how far north it will penetrate. Computer models range from a near-miss to a decent soaking. So with varying scenarios presented to us by our man-made plug-and-chug machines, and just experience that forecasting this type of set-up is difficult, at best, a low-confidence forecast for wet weather over southeastern and eastern areas will follow this, book-ended by a dry forecast for Wednesday and the weekend. In fact, the weekend portion will feature some decent warmth advertised.

Further out but less important right now is a cold front early next week which may end up putting a premature end to the sunny/warm spell.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Few fair-weather clouds vanish northwest sky and a few high clouds south. Lows in the 40s most areas but upper 30s deeper valleys and near 50 in urban locations. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine most of the time but some high clouds fanning in from the south while a few lower clouds drift in from the ocean. Highs in the 60s, coolest along the coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain especially afternoon favoring southern MA and RI. Highs in the 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of rain early favoring eastern MA. Slow clearing later. Low 49. High 68.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 77.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 83.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 74.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 50. High 61.

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High & Dry

3:25PM

In came the gusty westerly breeze Monday to clear out the air, and now high pressure builds in through Wednesday then sits atop the Northeast for the rest of this week. Low pressure to the south should stay far enough way to only toss some high clouds into the sky at times midweek, and a cold front from the north is likely come through dry late Sunday or early Monday. This is a quiet weather pattern, and a dry one. Slowly, we are building a drought in the region and without significant precipitation this is going to become a more serious issue with time.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: A few stray clouds then clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs around 70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 40s, some upper 30s valleys and lower 50s cities. Wind light NW to N.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine – few high clouds across the southern sky. Highs in the 60s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine & high clouds. Low 45. High 70.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 48. High 73.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 53. High 80.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 78.

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The Week Ahead

5:29PM

Low pressure passing east of the southern New England and another passing northwest of the region will be on their way out by early Monday as the cold front from the low to the northwest swings eastward through the region and puts an end to the brief bout of humidity. As upper level low pressure swings through the region Monday there will be a mix of sun and clouds but the air will be mild and less humid. For the remainder of the week, a very large high pressure area will move in and sit over the Northeast, first delivering some cooler air Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a warm-up later in the week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Isolated showers near Boston early. Isolated showers west of Boston late. Areas of fog. Breaking clouds. Lowering humidity. Lows around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs around 70. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 44, cooler valleys. High 65.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 47, cooler valleys. High 70.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 51, cooler valleys. High 75.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 55, cooler valleys. High 82, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 57, cooler valleys. High 81, cooler coast.

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After The Lows Comes The Big High

12:56PM

2 low pressure areas will move northeastward with southeastern New England right between them (one to the NW, one to the SE) today. In between these is a warm and humid air mass that will be over the region on this last full day of Summer. A few showers will occur in this zone, and perhaps a couple more later tonight as the cold front from the low to the NW swings through. This cold front will clean house and introduce a big high pressure area which will then control the weather for all of next week, which will be dry with temperatures above normal overall, warmest the second half.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

THIS AFTERNOON: Clouds & sun. Breezy & muggy. Isolated to scattered showers around. Highs from near 70 South Coast to near 80 most inland areas. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Breezy & muggy. Isolated showers possible. Lows in the 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W late.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Fair weather. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Fair weather. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

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Double Reverse

7:29AM

High pressure brings a chill through early Saturday, then the back side of it brings a warm up later Saturday through Sunday. A low pressure area will stay offshore late Sunday only tossing some clouds across southeastern areas mainly Cape Cod. A cold front moves through early Monday and returns a chill by Tuesday, only to see another warm up later next week. This is typical September in New England. What is a little atypical is the dry pattern that has become quite established. In the short term, it means dry ground and lowering water supplies. In the medium term, it may mean muted foliage next month. In the longer term, it may be the start of a more significant drought into 2015 as some longer range indications point to more dry than wet.

Pulling it back in to the near term, SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs around 60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost away from the immediate coast and city, with most widespread frost inland valleys. Lows in the 30s, lower 40s urban centers. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Wind light variable becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 80, cooler coastal areas. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early shower, partly sunny. Low 55. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40.  High 64.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 70.

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