We here in southeastern New England will find ourselves near the border of mild and cold during the next several days, and this means we’re setting up for several periods of unsettled weather. Without delving into the hype-fueled frenzy of dramatic what-if’s and gloom-and-doom scenarios, the remainder of this section of the blog entry will detail the players (weather systems) and the expected plays (resultant weather) during the next several days.
High pressure dominates with a nice day today, but it may start with patchy fog and frosty windows in some locations after a mostly clear and calm overnight allowed radiational cooling and moisture in the air to condense. The daylight hours will feature sunshine which will quickly erase any of the early fog/frost as it turns rather mild. Clouds will begin to increase later in the day ahead of a warm front, which will slog its way into southern New England by early Thursday. This front may have trouble pushing all the way through the region Thursday (watch for this in the temperature forecast), but will produce some light rain activity. A cold front will come along by Friday and send a couple batches of rain or showers into and across the region. Timing is a little uncertain, but it looks like the bulk of the rain will come in 2 batches, one in the early morning hours of Friday, the second on Friday night. As the cold front settles through the region it will hang up near or just off the coast, but allow enough cold air in so that we will see a mix with or change to snow sometime in the Friday night to early Saturday time frame as the final batch of precipitation moves through. The amount of time that snow can occur will be greater to the north and west of Boston and less to the south. The timing will also determine if any accumulation occurs. An early call is for a minor accumulation away from the coast and especially in higher elevations northwest of Boston. Either way, clouds may hang on through Saturday, because the upper level air flow will likely be from the southwest, and with the front barely offshore, that is often a setup for clouds streaming northeastward in the vicinity of the front. Eventually enough of a push of colder air from the northwest will clear things out, especially for the second half of the weekend, so expect a nice but chilly Sunday. This will be short-lived, as the next weather system will be coming along for early next week. With the colder air in place, we’ll have to watch for some potential for some snow/ice to be involved in at least part of the early-next-week storm, but it is far too early to really have any idea of details. The early feeling is that the main storm will be cutting through the Great Lakes, so even though we may have cold air around to start, we’ll likely warm up at some point during the system’s passage. But with the cold air lurking close by, it all needs to be watched. For now, generic wording will be used on the outlook for the start of next week.
Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…
TODAY: Areas of fog and frost early morning (watch for a few icy patches), then sunshine, but fading late in the day behind advancing clouds. Highs 42-50, coolest in higher elevations northwest of Boston and mildest over interior southern NH and eastern MA. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain, mainly morning and midday. Highs around 40 in southern NH to the lower 50s southern MA and RI. Wind light SE in areas to the north, light S to SW in areas to the south.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially in the early morning (pre-dawn) and late day. Low 40. High 50.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow early morning. Low 30. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain, may start as snow. Low 30. High 40.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Low 32. High 40.