DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 25-29)
A reminder: We’re still dealing with guidance that struggles more than would be typical due to deficient data for initialization, and it shows daily. Just yesterday we went from one GFS run showing measurable snow early October 31 in a good portion of southern New England to the next run showing dry/cold weather for the exact same time. It can be a challenge to try to figure out where the model mess-ups are and what they should really be forecasting – a daily struggle, fun at times, frustrating at others. A few adjustments have been made to this forecast but nothing too drastic. As expected, our mild air mass that started the weekend has been replaced by a much cooler one as the air is coming out of eastern Canada via the Maritime Provinces. It’s dry air though, and today will be a chilly late October day, although you will notice the presence of high & mid level cloudiness streaming in from the southwest which will dim and even blot out the sun at times. This is high level moisture in advance of an approaching warm front which, as it approaches the region later tonight and Monday, will cause the clouds to lower and thicken. Such fronts are often known for producing decent overrunning rain, but it appears this one will fail to do that, producing only spotty lighter rainfall at times during Monday. Tuesday, we’ll have a cold front slowly pushing through the region, but the closer we get to this, the more it looks like the front will be starved for moisture, and clouds will be dominant with only limited rain shower activity. High pressure should poke its way into the area for fair weather Wednesday, but the front that goes through on Tuesday will not be far away, and another wave of low pressure is expected to form on the front and may bring another chance of wet weather by Thursday. But there’s plenty of time for this system to fail to materialize as the models currently show. 😉
TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.
TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of light rain and drizzle probable. Highs 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers during the morning. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30- NOVEMBER 3)
Model performance renders them basically useless from here onward. Educated guess forecast is that we remain unsettled for a portion of October 30 as the low pressure passes south of the region, but as cold air is moving into the region it will be a race between it and the drier air to see if any of that rain can end as a mix or some snow briefly before we clear out later October 30. Halloween October 31 looks dry and cold. There’s some uncertainty but a disturbance may come by sometime November 1 or 2 with a few rain/snow showers before a reinforcing shot of cold/dry air arrives. Still have to work out the details on that part of the forecast.
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)
This period still looks mainly dry with polar jet stream domination. As high pressure sinks to the south of the region we should see a warm-up initially before a cold front brings a new batch of cold air from Canada eventually. Again, timing such details will be impossible this far out, so just that general idea for now.