Thursday Forecast

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 8-12)
The approach today will be a little bit old school as I’m currently not really trusting any computer models that much. Risky perhaps, but here goes my best shot at what I think will take place in the coming days. The next 3 will feature a west to northwest flow and a colder trend, with the coldest air of the season arriving later Friday into Saturday. The dominant Pacific jet stream will send an area of moisture this way during Sunday, bringing a chance of snow, favoring late day. How this system evolves is uncertain, but Monday will likely be an unsettled day with a risk of rain/mix/snow depending on location. There is plenty of time to work out these details.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable early, then W increasing to 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing in the afternoon.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow by late day. Lows 13-21. Highs 30-38.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Risk of snow/mix/rain. Lows 26-34. Highs 34-42.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 13-17)
Low confidence on timing of systems. At this time it appears one Pacific jet stream system will depart early in the period, a second one will threaten snow/mix about mid period, and another may approach by the very end of the period. Will refine this in future posts. A significant cold shot is possible around December 15-16.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 18-22)
No major changes to the overall pattern. Will work on the timing of systems.

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Wednesday Forecast

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)
In between storms well north and well south today but still unsettled. The snow fell mostly outside 495 in the early morning hours with rain further east and now we just have lingering lighter precipitation that will taper off. Thursday through Saturday will be mainly dry, rather windy, and trend colder. The next storm approaches later Sunday and if it gets here soon enough will bring some snow.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Spotty light mix/rain mainly morning and midday. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Watch for areas of black ice. Lows 25-33. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a passing rain shower. Highs 38-45. Wind 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH late.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Risk of a passing snow shower. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 15-23. Highs 27-34.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Lows 15-23. Highs 33-40.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)
Unsettled weather continues with a possible mix of precipitation December 12. Watching for another possible precipitation threat about December 14 then a shot of windy/cold weather following that.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)
Another storm threat early to mid period. Odds favor a milder track at this point.

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Tuesday Forecast

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Watch for patches of black ice this morning! Otherwise, a decent day today with high pressure providing sunshine with a seasonable chill. The next system arrives late tonight and as stated in the previous update will be a split system with one low north of the Great Lakes and another passing well south of New England Wednesday, leaving us in the middle with a little light precipitation, but it may be just enough in the form of snow to create a bit of a slick road situation especially over the interior prior to the Wednesday morning commute. Still looks like Thursday’s threat evolves mainly after it goes by, so just looking for some rain to snow showers as colder air arrives. The shot of cold air will be more pronounced Friday and Saturday as we get a piece of early-season Arctic air pulled out of Canada.
TODAY: Sunshine, then increasing clouds later. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Brief light snow to mix northwest, mix/rain southeast overnight. Lows 30-38. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light mix/rain mainly morning. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain to snow showers. Lows 28-35. Highs 36-43.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Snow showers mainly morning. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 15-23. Highs 27-34.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Next storm threat comes later December 11 through early December 13. This may be rain, mix, or snow, depending on low pressure track. Details to be worked out. Another system may threaten December 14 or 15.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)
One or two precipitation threats from passing Pacific jet stream low pressure areas. Temperatures highly variable.

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Monday Forecast

2:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Why waste time? Let’s start the work week off with a bit of a tricky commute. The cause? Snow from a fairly weak low pressure area moving through the Northeast today. The worst areas? The initial burst of snow between 5AM and 8AM will move west to east and impact southern NH, central and parts of eastern MA most significantly, but not because of the amount of snow. In reality, accumulations will be rather small. But because of a cold night and early morning, snow that falls can lightly coat any surfaces rather quickly and make them quick slippery. Temperatures are marginal further southeast and a slightly later arrival of precipitation there will mean much less of an impact. By noon, it’s pretty much a done deal and anything left will be a mix/rain except still a pocket of snow possible in north central MA and southern NH before everything moves out. A break in the unsettled weather will be brief on Tuesday as another low pressure are will be heading in for Tuesday night and Wednesday, but this one, an elongated area, will be weakening as it moves in, with the main areas of energy really staying both northwest and south of the region. It will also be a little milder with the next system, so mix/rain is more likely than snow. And then we do it again Thursday and Thursday night as another area of energy coming along the jet stream ignites a low pressure system. This one will probably not get its act together until it gets just beyond the region, so look for rain/mix developing Thursday and probably ending as lingering snow showers Friday as we get a shot of much colder air moving into the region behind this departing system.
TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with a period of snow mainly northwest of a Boston-Providence line accumulating a coating to 2 inches, highest amounts in higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH and possibly interior northeastern MA, then a mix of rain/snow further southeast a bit later, changing to rain, with a mix to rain area coming northward across eastern MA while it remains mostly snow for a while to the northwest, before tapering off midday and early afternoon. Clouds may break for a little sun late day. Highs 35-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Watch for patchy icy spots where snow melted but surfaces did not dry off. Wind light NW.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Brief light snow to mix northwest, mix/rain southeast overnight. Lows 30-38. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light mix/rain mainly morning. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of afternoon rain, nighttime mix. Lows 28-35. Highs 36-43.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Snow showers mainly morning. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Fair and cold December 10. The period December 11-13 will likely see some impact from 1 or 2 low pressure areas – details uncertain. Fair weather returns to end the period with another shot of cold air.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)
One or two precipitation threats from passing Pacific jet stream low pressure areas. Temperatures highly variable.

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Sunday Forecast

11:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)
High pressure provides a nice December day to round out the first weekend of the final month of 2016. Winds which were brisk during the morning will relax during the afternoon. Things change quick around here, and clouds will sneak in tonight ahead of a weak area of low pressure that will pass just south of the region Monday, bringing a period of generally light precipitation, falling as mostly snow north and west of Boston, snow to mix/rain Boston area south. Look for minor snow accumulation (details below). Another slightly stronger low pressure area will approach Tuesday night and move into the region Wednesday but will be weakening as it does this, and with a little milder air in place, this one will be mostly mix/rain. Another low will try to form nearby Thursday. If it does so quickly enough, a period of rain to snow cannot be ruled out, but I believe it will evolve just far enough east to really bring just rain and snow showers to the region as colder air arrives.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing gradually.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow arrives southwestern NH and central MA pre-dawn. Lows 22-27 except 28-33 immediate coast. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Cloudy through mid afternoon with snow north and west of Boston amounting to a coating to 2 inches, greatest in higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH including Worcester and Fitchburg MA and Jaffrey NH. Snow/mix likely turning to rain from Boston/Providence southeastward with little or no accumulation. Clouds break late-day especially west of Boston. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N late.
MONDAY NIGHT: Slow clearing. Watch for icy patches on untreated surfaces. Lows 23-32. Wind light N to NW.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-48. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with light mix/rain. Lows 30-38. Highs 38-45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain/snow showers. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48 but may turn much colder late.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)
Cold, windy, isolated snow showers Friday December 9. Fair, cold, but diminishing wind Saturday December 10. Next storm system threatens later December 11 into December 12, but track/timing uncertain at this point. Fair by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)
Milder overall, a couple Pacific systems may threaten with rain/mix during this period.

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Saturday Forecast

3:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)
High pressure center west of the region send a cooling northwesterly flow into the region for the weekend with fair weather. A weak disturbance will pass through during the first half of Monday and may bring a few insignificant snow showers. A couple low pressure areas will approach from the southwest late Tuesday but will be weakening as they move through on Wednesday with insignificant rainfall.
TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 40-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 22-32, coldest interior MA and southern NH. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-46. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-32. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 38-46. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-32. Highs 44-52.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 34-42. Highs 42-50.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)
Another low pressure area arrives from the west early in the period with a rain threat, but its departure will be followed by a blast of colder air December 9-10 with no more than a few snow showers but mainly dry weather. Fair and more tranquil by December 11 but the next Pacific low may bring unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)
Similar pattern with 1 or 2 Pacific jet stream lows bringing a risk of precipitation. Some models have hinted at cold enough for snow for one of these but it’s too early to know for sure. I’d lean milder at this point.

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2016-2017 Snowfall Contest – LAST CALL

You can continue to post snowfall contest guesses here if you have not done so already!
The deadline is extended through December 4.

Here at the cities…
Boston MA
Worcester MA
Providence RI
Hartford (Bradley) CT
Concord NH
Burlington VT
Portland ME

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Friday Forecast

2:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)
A west to northwest flow of dry air with a cooling trend will be the story of the next few days, basically through the weekend. A disturbance will come through on Monday with perhaps a few snow showers. A slightly larger storm being carried along by the Pacific jet stream will approach by late Tuesday.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 27-35, coldest in southern NH and mildest Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-33, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 24-32. Highs 35-43.
TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of rain at night. Lows 22-30. Highs 40-48.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)
A low pressure system will impact the region but probably with only light rain, for December 7. A front may bring rain/snow showers on December 8 before fair weather and a little colder for later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)
Pacific jet stream pattern. Variable temperatures and hard to time low pressure systems bringing precipitation threats, but one should be around early in this period.

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Thursday Forecast

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)
December starts mild, but breezy. A cooling trend will take place in the first few days of the month but no major cold is coming, so a fairly tranquil stat to the month other than the breeze of the next couple days.
TODAY: Rain departs Cape Cod early. Overcast departs eastern coastal areas then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 53-61. Wind W 10-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 45-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 28-35. Highs 40-48.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Highs 40-48.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 26-33. Highs 37-44.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Stormy weather possible mid to late period, odds favor rain as temperatures run above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Similar pattern, a storm or 2 may threaten but still looks like a storm track that would favor rain over mix/snow.

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Wednesday Forecast

9:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
On this final day of November we get one more wave of low pressure approaching and the next round of rain will arrive from southwest to northeast this afternoon and continue tonight, with a few rounds of heavy rain for some areas. As December gets underway it all gets out of here and we have a mild but windy day Thursday, followed by dry weather and a cooling trend Friday through the weekend.
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Rain developing southwest to northeast this afternoon. Highs 48-56. Wind light E.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times. Slight chance of thunder. Lows 42-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
THURSDAY: Cloudy start Cape Cod. Otherwise, sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-60. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 32-39. Highs 47-54.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 25-33. Highs 43-50.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Highs 38-45.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Risk of snow showers early December 5 then fair and cool. Watching 1 or 2 waves of low pressure that may bring some unsettled weather around December 7 and/or 9. Not quite sure of the evolution of this yet. Odds favor rain as it warms up somewhat.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Overall pattern remains mild. Another Pacific system threatens mainly rain by later in the period.

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