Holiday Horizon

6:37PM

It may be at the edge of the forecast range, but Christmas is nearing! A lot of shopping and travel plans will be attempted during the next 7 days, so let’s take a look at how the weather may play out. Starting way out, about the Christmas Eve / Christmas Day storm threat: To be honest with you, I realize the reason that many media are talking about the system in as much detail as they are this far in advance, with the importance of peoples’ plans and all, but we should reel that in a bit, because as much as computer guidance has changed in the last 3 days on the outlook for next week, and the fact that the pieces or ingredients of this potential event are scattered around various portions of the Pacific Ocean at this time, things are likely to shift further. What I put in that part of the forecast will be low confidence, and will, as always, be fine-tuned with time. Leading up to that we also have a few weather changes to encounter. First, we have a cooler northwesterly flow of air that became established during the day Thursday behind a departing low pressure area. This will lead to a dry and cool day Friday as high pressure builds north of the region. This high will orient itself in such a way that the wind will turn northeast over the weekend, bringing episodes of ocean cloudiness into portions of southeastern New England, especially coastal areas, with a little more emphasis on cloudiness and possible drizzle and snow showers Sunday versus Saturday. High pressure should nose southward a little more for fair weather on Monday. We’ll have to watch for a wave of low pressure passing near or east of the region Tuesday as a boundary will be nearby. This is uncertain, detail-wise, but odds would favor Tuesday being a cloudier day and perhaps somewhat damp if low pressure is close enough. So there will be plenty to monitor during the coming days…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows ranging from the lower 20s rural areas to around 30 along the coastline. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH, diminishing somewhat overnight.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Periods of ocean cloudiness especially coastal areas from Boston to Cape Cod and across southeastern MA and parts of RI at times. Sunnier elsewhere. Highs around 40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty drizzle/flurries especially eastern areas. Low 32. High 40.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 42.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix/rain especially east. Low 32. High 42.
WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 46.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain to snow showers. Temps cooling 40s to 30s.

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Arctic Absensce

2:48AM

The Arctic air which inhabited Canada for much of the month of November headed back over the pole and into Siberia during December and has shown very little push back into North America. Though there are signs that this will finally begin to change, it will take place slowly, so systems between now and the holiday will have limited cold air to work with. This will limit, but not eliminate, the chance of getting some snow on the ground before Christmas. However, the system coming through southeastern New England today is not going to be one that brings the chance of any meaningful snowfall. A parent low pressure area is passing well northwest of the region while a secondary low moves right across southeastern New England. The most widespread rain will take place first thing in the morning, with just lots of clouds and a few showers otherwise. Tonight, cooler air will filter in, and some rain showers will be around at first, but eventually overnight and into Thursday morning, a disturbance will bring a chance of snow showers as air will become cold enough. Drier air will filter in later Thursday and especially Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds in. By Sunday, developing low pressure over the Southeast is expected to move off the Mid Atlantic Coast. At this time, it appears this system will not turn into a major storm, but it, combined with high pressure to the north, will bring cloudiness and a chance of some rain and snow to the region Sunday. Low pressure may be slow to move away so that some snow showers are possible Monday, before narrow high pressure brings dry weather for Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog into mid morning, including rain which will end southwest to northeast. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of a few rain showers remainder of the day. Highs in the 40s. Wind light E to variable becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH in the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Chance of snow showers late at night. Lows in the 30s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered snow showers in the morning. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 19. High 41.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/rain. Low 28. High 38.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 26. High 36.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 40.

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Quick Forecast Update

7:36AM

Quick update only. Full discussion and updated forecast later today…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered drizzle. Isolated rain showers. Highs 40-45. Wind light E.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Numerous rain showers after midnight. Temperatures steady around 40. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through mid morning, ending lastly over Cape Cod. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH early then W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 20. High 35.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow inland, rain or snow coast. Low 25. High 35.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 30.

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The Week Ahead

11:14PM

High pressure will allow a tranquil start to the week Monday. Low pressure will track northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday then redevelop just off the coast and move rapidly northeastward away from southeastern New England. This track means that the system will produce rain later Tuesday through early Wednesday. As cold air arrives behind the departing low, a few snow showers may wander into the region Wednesday night, but a secondary front and associated disturbance will plow through the region during Thursday with the potential for additional snow showers. This will set up a quiet and chilly end of the week and start of the weekend as high pressure builds in. But during the weekend we’ll likely be impacted by low pressure coming out of the US Southeast. It’s too early to determine the track and ultimate impact on our area but this will be watched as the week goes along.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-28 except around 30 coast and urban areas. Wind light NW.
MONDAY: Sunny start then a mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the 40s. Wind light NW to N.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. Lows middle 20s to lower 30s. Wind light N to E.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 40s. Wind light E to SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Late day or nighttime rain to snow showers. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain and snow possible. Low 30. High 40.

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Weekend Update

9:06AM

WEEKEND DISCUSSION…
With the old low still offshore and fairly close-by, we’ll remain under the influence of its circulation through the weekend. A disturbance, or “spoke of energy” moving around it will bring cloudiness and some snow showers to coastal NH, northeastern MA, the MA South Shore, and outer Cape Cod during this morning. A few flakes may migrate southwestward into the Boston area and immediate suburbs but no accumulation here while the aforementioned areas may see a coating to 1/2 inch of snow. Areas to the west and southwest are enjoying some sunshine and will continue to do so this morning. All areas will be in and out of clouds this afternoon but again clouds will be most dominant in eastern areas. By tonight, there is hope for a batch of drier air to clear out most of the clouds, leaving the sky favorable for the second peak night of the Geminid Meteor Shower, in which up to 120 meteors per hour may be visible. Sunday should be a day featuring a mix of sun and clouds again but this time with a little more sun in the overall mix. For those going to the Patriots game in Foxboro, the temperature should be around 40 at 1PM kick off time and in the upper to middle 30s by the end of the game, with a northerly breeze up to 15 MPH.

NEXT WEEK (MONDAY-FRIDAY)…
Low pressure finally moves far enough offshore to keep its clouds away but not far enough offshore to keep its north wind away, which will limit the amount of warming that takes place as the air will be “refrigerated”, having come across newly snow-covered areas to the north. But still, it will be a very nice day. Low pressure will track northeastward through the Midwest and into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday then redevelop over southern New England before moving northeastward into Maine on Wednesday. This track and redevelopment will favor rain, not snow, for southeastern New England, however as colder air starts to come back into the region behind the departing secondary low, some snow showers may result Wednesday night. A secondary cold front on Thursday may also deliver a few snow showers. By Friday, high pressure is in, with fair and chilly weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Morning – mostly cloudy with snow showers coastal NH through northeastern MA then into coastal southeastern MA to outer Cape Cod with accumulations of a coating to 1/2 inch, mostly cloudy with a few snow flurries Boston area, more sun further to the west from south central NH to interior MA to RI. Afternoon – mostly cloudy to partly sunny with isolated rain or snow showers in coastal areas. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain AM. Chance of snow showers night. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 20. High 35.

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On The Back Side

7:25AM

Finally on the back side of the decaying low pressure area, for 2 more days before it wanders away. Considerable cloudiness will be the rule through Saturday along with some spotty rain and snow showers. By Sunday, we finally get into more sunshine as low pressure pulls away to the east, but we’re still not likely to see complete clearing. That will wait until Monday when a ridge of high pressure will build over southeastern New England with fair and milder weather. But that won’t last either, as the next low pressure trough will approach from the Great Lakes later Tuesday and pass through on Wednesday with a chance of some rain and snow. This exits by Thursday when we will see a delivery of gusty, colder air.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy, a few intervals of sun, but also scattered areas of very light snow/drizzle. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers with brief minor accumulation. Lows 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Lots of clouds, a few more intervals of sun, with lingering isolated rain/snow showers. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light mix at night. Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/snow. Low 30. High 40.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

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No-Go Low

5:32PM

Low pressure that barreled into New England from the south on Tuesday with an icy start then rain, flooding, and wind has decided to park itself in the area and spin around for a few more days. It will not get out of here until the second part of the coming weekend, finally pulling away to the east. Being under its influence through Saturday, we’ll see plenty of cloudiness along some rain and snow showers. Do not look for any widespread heavy precipitation.

By early next week, high pressure will move overhead with a couple nice days, not too cold by December standards. Toward the middle of next week, a new trough will move in with a return to unsettled weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers coast, southeastern MA, and RI, with rain or snow showers elsewhere. Brief coatings of snow possible mainly along and northwest of I-495. Lows in the 30s. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers except rain or snow showers inland with brief coatings possible. Highs around 40. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers Cape Cod and South Coast, snow showers elsewhere, with accumulation of under 1/2 inch possible. Lows around 30. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 35. High 40.

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Quick Slick, Upper Cut, Hang Around

1:11AM

A developing low pressure area will move fairly quickly northward into southern New England today, first bumping into cold air that has been trapped at low levels from the Boston area west and north, causing some slick conditions with light snow and freezing drizzle. Milder ocean air that has been sitting over southeastern MA will expand as the boundary between the cold and mild shifts westward with time during the morning. The cold air will take the longest to erode in areas well northwest of Boston, especially in valley locations. Once the icing issue is replaced by melting, rain and wind will become the story during the afternoon and early evening ahead of the advancing low pressure center. Things will settle down during the evening and nighttime hours as low pressure moves overhead and slows down, with some drier air working into the circulation and the heaviest rain area advancing well to the north (with heavy snow over the mountains of western and northern New England). During Wednesday and Thursday, this low will continue to sit and spin in the region, with clouds dominant, and episodic rain showers as the air will be too mild to support snow. Friday and Saturday, this low will finally wander away to the northeast but will do so slowly enough that lots of clouds and a few rain showers will linger. Expect fair weather to finally dominate by Sunday and Monday. After the current cold is scoured out, don’t expect a return to very cold air during the next 7 days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Light precipitation into mid morning in the form of snow well northwest of Boston and freezing drizzle closer to Boston especially inland, with light drizzle/rain in areas south and southeast of the city. Snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch possible north and west of Boston. A light coating of ice also likely from Boston north and west. Untreated surfaces will be slippery. Heavier liquid rain develops south to north midday and afternoon, with even the chance of embedded thunder late afternoon. Highs eventually 35-45 northwest to southeast. Wind light N to NE north and west of Boston and NE increasing to 10-20 MPH closer to Boston in the morning, then NE to E increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH inland, and 20-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH closer to the coast and over 50 MPH from Cape Ann to the South Shore through Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures steady 35-45. Wind variable, mostly SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs in the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 40. High 45.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Low 40. High 45.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

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The Week Ahead

1:27AM

The first 5 days of the week will be impacted by one storm, which will develop over the waters south of New England Monday, track northward right into southern New England Tuesday, hang around right over the region Wednesday and Thursday, then move away to the northeast on Friday.

Monday’s impact will be an increasing northeast wind with cloudiness as high pressure retreats northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes and the storm organizes to the south. Some snow showers may move in from the ocean during the day, especially in eastern coastal areas, but no significant snow accumulation will occur. Tuesday will be the day of greatest impact, with a solid area of moderate to heavy rain lifting northward across southeastern New England, along with some gusty wind. As the low center wobbles around the region Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll have somewhat drier air being pulled into the system along with some areas of instability, but the air will be mild enough for rain showers to be scattered around on Wednesday, however many areas may be rain-free for much of the day. Similar conditions are expected Thursday but with air just a little colder, rain or snow showers are possible. By Friday, it will be slightly colder still but with less moisture, so there is just a chance of a few snow showers.

By the weekend, expect high pressure to build in, along with a milder trend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers and drizzle possible especially in the afternoon near eastern coastal areas. Little accumulation. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow showers or freezing drizzle early. Lows around 30 early then rising through the 30s overnight. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain developing south to north, may start as snow briefly outside of I-495 especially north of the Mass Pike. Heaviest rain late. Highs in the 40s. Wind E to SE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts over 30 MPH inland, over 40 MPH near the coast.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers. Low 35. High 40.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 30. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

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Sunday Morning Update

7:32AM

QUICK DISCUSSION…
Clouds depart from NW to SE through midday today, more sun this afternoon but windy as high pressure builds in. This high will be centered to the northeast of southern New England by Monday, and as low pressure organizes to the south a gusty onshore wind will develop, with cold air in place, spelling ocean-effect snow showers. The developing storm will then move northward and impact the region with rain and wind as milder ocean air floods the lower atmosphere Tuesday. Low pressure is expected to park itself right over or near southeastern New England then for the middle of the week before finally wandering off to the east by Friday, with rain showers transitioning to snow showers during this time frame, along with more wind and a cooling trend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clouds decrease northwest to southeast, with most sun mid afternoon until sunset. Highs 40-45. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH, except 15-30 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH higher elevations and coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increase especially eastern areas overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, with episodes of snow showers with minor accumulation possible, especially near the coast. Partial sunshine with a few snow showers elsewhere. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain. Windy. Low 35. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers. Windy. Low 40. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers. Windy. Low 35. High 40.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers. Windy. Low 30. High 40.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

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