Tuesday Forecast Update

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5…
Warm front today / cold front Wednesday – still on the agenda. Timing of Wednesday’s cold front remains key to any potential for stronger or possibly severe storms. It looks like a slower-moving front taking its time getting through during the afternoon, so storms can fire along the boundary and be moderate to strong. There is an outside risk of a couple severe storms favoring eastern and southern MA down into RI. Thursday’s forecast is a little more uncertain as the front will be very close to the South Coast and a disturbance coming along will likely enhance cloudiness and the shower threat at some point. Better weather is still expected to return Friday and Saturday.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of passing showers. Humid. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely by midday especially west of Boston and in the afternoon favoring eastern and southern MA through RI. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W during the afternoon.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Highs 75-83.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs 78-85.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-65. Highs 80-87.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)…
Summery Sunday July 12 but thunderstorms possible by late day. A shower and thunderstorm threat and cooling down July 13-14 as a trough moves through. Improving weather and warming up July 15-16.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)…
Temperatures near to above normal and rainfall near to below normal during this period. Pattern may be readjusting to more ridging in the eastern US and will watch for this possibility.

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Monday Forecast Update

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5…
High pressure hangs on with another nice day to start the week, though there is still some smoke aloft in the sky from Canadian forest fires. Warm front / cold front combo still expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with more cloudiness, a risk of a few showers Tuesday and a better shot and showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Timing of Wednesday’s cold front is key in determining high temperature and coverage and intensity of any thunderstorms. The earlier the front, the less intense the storms will likely be. A later frontal arrival would mean more heat and a stronger storms. Will try to pinpoint timing by tomorrow’s update. Drier air mass arrives Thursday but a disturbance aloft may bring at least some cloudiness and possibly a few showers. Great Summer weather arrives at the end of the week.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of brief periods of light rain. More humid. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Lows 65-70. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Highs 75-83.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)…
Slowing timing of systems slightly to allow for a great Summer weekend July 11-12. Trough moving through from west brings the chance of showers/thunderstorms July 13-15. Temperatures near to above normal to start followed by a slight cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)…
Flat ridge of high pressure from the South Central US through the Southeast and off into the Atlantic, still not far enough north to promote big heat in the Northeast, but jet stream far enough north to allow for near to above normal temperatures. Disturbances coming along the jet stream may produce a few episodes of showers/t-storms.

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Sunday Forecast Update

11:25AM

COMMENTARY…
Good day all! A little interruption in the great weather for Independence Day yesterday reminding us again of the uncertainty of weather forecasting. Where I expected the rain to fall stayed the driest. Where I expected would stay the driest got the most rain, not that it was a soaker of a day all day long in those areas of interior MA north and west of Boston and southern NH, but it rained there enough to disgruntle some people with outdoor plans. However, if you were patient, or timed things correctly, you had a wonderful evening to enjoy! And that was true of all areas as drier air moved in behind the disturbance, proving that going into this situation, many of the computer models were incorrect on timing and had the activity taking place later than it actually did. And now, time to look ahead…

DAYS 1-5…
Beautiful Summer day today as high pressure dominates. This holds into Monday – another great day! By Tuesday, a warm front crosses the region with more cloudiness and the risk of a few showers, as well as an increase in humidity. This sets up Wednesday as a potential day for heavy to severe thunderstorms as a cold front pushes into a warm and muggy air mass. I’m not going to try to say we’re in for it here this far in advance, but only want to alert you a few days in advance of the possibility of some big boomers somewhere in the region at that time. By Thursday, we’re into a drier airmass though a disturbance nearby may still kick off a few showers.
THIS AFTERNOON: Sunshine. Highs in the 80s except 70s Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-60 interior valleys, 60-65 elsewhere. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of brief periods of light rain. More humid. Lows 60-65. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Lows 65-70. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Highs 75-83.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)…
Great Summer weather Friday July 10 and Saturday July 11 with fair and warm conditions. Episodic showers/thunderstorms becoming more likely July 12-14 as a trough moves through the Northeast. Still no heatwaves in sight with temperatures close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)…
Flat ridge of high pressure from the South Central US through the Southeast and off into the Atlantic, still not far enough north to promote big heat in the Northeast, but jet stream far enough north to allow for near to above normal temperatures. Disturbances coming along the jet stream may produce occasional showers/t-storms typical of Summertime but overall rainfall will be near to below normal.

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Independence Day Update

1:35AM

DAYS 1-5…
Happy Birthday to the USA! Here in southern New England, we won’t have a bright sunny day, and we won’t be seeing any blazing heat, but we will experience fairly decent conditions. Clouds will be dominant as a disturbance passes south of the region, but dry air in place will make most of the approaching rainfall dry up, and only a little may fall south of the Mass Pike, mainly near the South Coast, for a time in the afternoon. Dry weather will have returned to any areas that saw rain by early at night. Looking great for fireworks displays! High pressure slides to the east of the region Sunday through Tuesday with mainly dry and fairly warm weather. By Wednesday, an approaching cold front may trigger showers and thunderstorms.
TODAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy. A little light rain south of the Mass Pike for a time in the afternoon, mainly near the South Coast. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 60-65. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80s interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s, some 70s southern coastal areas.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s south coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)…
Temperatures are expected to average slightly above normal with rainfall slightly below normal during the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)…
Little change expected with a near to above normal temperature pattern against a near to below normal precipitation regime.

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Friday Forecast Update

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5…
Here we are, right into the Holiday Weekend and the weather will be great today and Sunday, and not too bad Saturday. The thing with the holiday itself is that a wave of low pressure passing to the south of New England will toss a good deal of mid and high level moisture this way, so we’ll see a lot of cloudiness. Despite some of the computer models predicting a slug of rain Saturday afternoon and evening, there are 2 things to keep in mind: 1) The models’ timing is usually too slow, so the peak of this “moisture event” will be earlier. 2) There will be a tremendous amount of dry air in place at mid levels when this system makes its run at us, and a lot of that moisture will be “eaten up” or evaporate due to the dry air. This means that clouds may dominate but rain will not. I will introduce the risk of brief light rain to southern areas, but I do not expect this to be enough to cause significant problems. The feel of Summer will be in force by early in the week as the humidity starts to creep up.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60 interior valleys, 60-65 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light rain early through mid afternoon mainly southern MA, CT, and RI. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)…
A very warm and humid day possible July 8 including a risk of showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather dominates the rest of the period with seasonable to warmer than normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)…
Temperatures near to slightly above normal. Rainfall below normal.

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Drought Far From Over / Thursday Forecast Update

9:04AM

COMMENTARY…
And now we enter another long dry stretch with no significant rainfall in sight. The next 5 days will be dry with the possible exception of a touch of light rain from a passing disturbance early on July 4 around Cape Cod, if it even comes close enough, which right now I don’t believe it will. Beyond that as the center of high pressure shifts more offshore with time and starts to introduce some Summertime humidity to the Northeast, we’ll always start to run risk of at least pop up showers and thunderstorms, but these do not erase droughts, and despite a wetter than average June, we still run a long-term precipitation deficit through the region. The Drought Monitor report that comes out today will indeed show at the very least that much of the region is in Abnormally Dry long term conditions. We may see a reduction in the Moderate Drought coverage, but that will likely return again before too long.

DAYS 1-5…
Disturbances pass out south of New England only introducing some high cloudiness at times later today and tonight, and again Friday night into Saturday (rain may get close to the South Coast and Cape Cod Saturday morning but don’t think it will make it onshore). Otherwise high pressure is in control and get ready for a very enjoyable stretch of early Summer weather, including the holiday weekend! We may still see smoke high in the sky for a couple days from forest fires in western Canada.
TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds and possibly smoke aloft, most clouds southern MA and RI in the afternoon. Highs 70s South Coast/Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Clouds exit southeastern areas early with sun dominating but sun may still be filtered at times by smoke aloft. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s.
SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Evening temps in 70s. Overnight lows in 60s.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)…
Weak jet stream overhead between low pressure in east central Canada and high pressure off the East Coast. We probably won’t make it through the entire stretch rain-free but showers and thunderstorms are likely to be somewhat limited, leading to overall below normal rainfall. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)…
Jet stream lifts a little to the north and the pattern shifts to one of near to above normal temperatures with continued near to below normal rainfall.

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Wednesday Forecast Update

6:42AM

DAYS 1-5…
Happy July to you all! This section will spotlight the first 5 days of this new month, including the Fourth of July Weekend! Of most immediate concern is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across southern New England today. The most numerous activity will come in waves associated with a warm front passing through the region during this morning. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are likely, some potentially strong with torrential rain, lightning, and gusty winds. There is a remote risk for hail and damaging wind. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. As we get to afternoon, the warm front will have passed through and a cold front will be approaching. A more humid and fairly unstable air mass ahead of the approaching cold front will promote additional scattered showers and thunderstorms, less numerous than the morning activity but still with the potential for an isolated stronger storm. By tonight, all activity will be diminishing and pushing offshore and then we enter a fairly quiet stretch of weather Thursday through Sunday, including the Independence Day holiday itself on Saturday. A couple weak waves of low pressure will stay south of the region but will throw some high cloudiness across the sky at times Thursday and Friday. In addition, you may notice a hazy look to the sky at times Thursday into the weekend. This would be due to smoke from forest fires in western Canada. This is not a highly unusual occurrence and takes place when smoke rises from the fires and is transported by the middle and upper level winds. See the comments section below for more on today’s weather. Onto the 5-day forecast…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy through midday with numerous showers and thunderstorms arriving southwest to northeast with some storms producing torrential rain and frequent lightning. Some storms potentially producing damaging wind and possibly hail. Variably cloudy including breaks of sun mid afternoon on with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms, still with a few potentially strong storms. Becoming humid. Highs in the 70s, may touch 80 away from the coast in any areas that see enough sun. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH this morning though may shift briefly to SW with moderate to strong gusts with any storms, then S to SW 10-20 MPH with stronger gusts near any additional storms this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with any lingering showers and thunderstorms ending early, then clearing. Becoming less humid. Lows 60-65, a few upper 50s interior valleys. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds and possibly smoke aloft, most clouds southern MA and RI in the afternoon. Highs 70s South Coast/Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds and possibly smoke aloft, most clouds southern MA and RI in the morning. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s.
SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Evening temps in 70s. Overnight lows in 60s.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)…
A weak trough is expected in the Great Lakes to the Northeast with a flat ridge of high pressure to the south and in the western Atlantic. This pattern keeps Summer heat at bay and weak disturbances promote a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures overall expected to be close to normal with rainfall near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)…
Jet stream lifts a little to the north and the pattern shifts to one of near to above normal temperatures with continued near to below normal rainfall. This is going to depends on the orientation of upper level low pressure in Canada, which should elongate more west-to-east and weaken slightly, allowing for the northward shift in the jet stream.

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Tuesday Forecast Update

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5…
No major changes to this forecast except a little more optimistic heading into the holiday weekend.
TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny into afternoon then increasing clouds later. Highs 75-82 but turning cooler in coastal areas during the afternoon. Wind light variable through midday then SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of showers. Lows 60-67. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning and early afternoon. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day with possible strong storms. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 75-82.
SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)…
Sunday July 5 looks warm and dry. The early and middle portion of next week looks seasonably warm with a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities from late on July 6 through early July 9.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)…
Temperatures are expected to average close to normal with rainfall near to below normal, though opportunities for a few showers and storms with heavy rain will be present between a trough to the west and an offshore high pressure ridge.

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Monday Forecast Update

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5…
The primary low pressure area that spawned the secondary low that brought the rain on Sunday will move across the region today with a few showers around this morning otherwise just lots of clouds and a lingering damp and cool feel to the air to start the week, but drier air moves in tonight and Tuesday, and June ends with a fairly nice day Tuesday. However, clouds will return quickly later in the day ahead of an approaching warm front which may bring a few areas of very light rain to the region by night. A cold front will follow on Wednesday, bringing a decent shot at showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong – something to watch. After the potentially stormy start to July, better weather should take over for the following few days, heading into the July 4 weekend, though a front may get closer by later in the weekend to increase the chance of a shower or thunderstorm again.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of drizzle and isolated showers this morning. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 53-60, coolest interior valleys. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny into afternoon then increasing clouds later. Highs 75-82 but turning cooler in coastal areas during the afternoon. Wind light variable through midday then SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 75-82.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)…
Weaker version of trough Great Lakes and Upper Midwest and high pressure off the East Coast, not too strong but there. Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal though still a few episodes of locally heavy showers/thunderstorms possible.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)…
A continuation of the pattern from the 6-10 day period is expected.

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Sunday Forecast Update

12:40PM

No major changes to previous discussion, so right to the forecast for today and next post will have more thoughts on the weather heading through the July 4 Weekend!

THIS AFTERNOON: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle, fog, and rain. Highs in the 60s. Wind E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A lingering shower mainly northern MA and southern NH early. Patchy fog. Lows 55-60. Wind N diminishing to 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 70-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Chance of showers evening. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a chance of showers. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)…
Heading through the holiday weekend, a shower and thunderstorm threat exists at some point on Friday July 3 with mainly dry weather to follow for Saturday and Sunday July 4 & 5. Showers/thunderstorms are possible around July 6-7. Temperatures a little closer to normal during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)…
Temperatures and rainfall should average around normal for this period, with still no heatwaves in sight at this time.

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