DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

We’ll have a cold and blustery day today as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and yesterday’s storm spins in the Canadian Maritimes. Tonight, high pressure slides overhead, then offshore on Wednesday. A warm front will pass by during the morning with some clouds, and the day will be the mildest of this week. Low pressure that parents this warm front will be moving eastward down the St. Lawrence Valley and its cold front will swing through the region during Thursday morning and midday with some rain to snow showers. A little wave of low pressure on the front may result in a period of snow especially across southeastern MA and RI where there may be a small accumulation before it moves away during the afternoon. This will set us up with the next shot of cold air late in the week. Friday will be mostly dry but the position of high pressure means that a northerly wind can cause some snow showers across Cape Cod. The question for Saturday’s weather is whether or not we’ll be impacted by low pressure passing to the south of the region. Some guidance says it will come close enough to give our region accumulating snow. Other guidance indicates a miss. The pattern says we’ll likely be right on the edge one way or another, and with the uncertainty in the guidance as far as a day 5 forecast goes, I’ll just lean toward a graze and can adjust either way later.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers then snow showers overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through midday with a period of snow possible mainly southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT that may leave a coating to 1 inch of accumulation. Increasing sun thereafter. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early then NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-17. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 10-17. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring southeastern areas. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

Temperatures are expected to run mostly below normal during this period. We may have to watch for a passing low pressure area to the south January 24 indicated by some guidance (but not all guidance), and another system is possible around January 26 with a chance of some snowfall. Too early to try detailing anything.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 18 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

A stormy Monday morning for the WHW forecast area, with most areas now in the form of rain, with snow only hanging on in the highest elevations of northern Worcester County through southwestern NH, where several inches have fallen. These areas will also go to rain early this morning before the main batch of precipitation lifts north of the region. We’ve seen some pretty heavy rain along with moderate to strong wind gusts across the region, with strongest wind gusts over 50 MPH along coastal areas, even a few gusts above 60 MPH. We’ve seen a variety of issues from this storm, ranging from some fallen tree limbs and power outages to areas of flooding on roads, in parking lots, and probably some basements. There are also some slick spots where excessively cold ground allowed the rain to freeze on it, so even where temperatures are above freezing there are still some icy spots to watch out for on untreated walkways early today. We’ll also have to watch for some coastal flooding at high tide this morning. Thankfully, most schools and some businesses have a holiday today for MLK Jr. Day, so the morning commute is might lighter than a normal one. Conditions will ease as we get to midday and afternoon as the low pressure area lifts north northeastward and heads for southeastern Canada after passing west of here, but it will still be windy at times as it passes by to our north tonight and some colder air makes a return back to the region. While the main precipitation will be gone, we can still see some rain and snow showers as the colder air comes back in. Expect dry weather but with chilly air and a gusty breeze for Tuesday between the departing low and approaching high pressure. This high will scoot across the region Tuesday night and offshore Wednesday as the next low pressure area, a much weaker one, heads out of the Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. Its warm front will pass by early in the day, its cold front following by early Thursday, with a bit of unsettled weather, but Wednesday itself will be a fairly nice day with a milder feel to the air. The cold air will filter back in on Thursday and a secondary front will deliver even colder air for Friday, at which time we will be dry with the exception of some Cape Cod snow showers due to a northerly wind flow over relatively warm ocean water.

TODAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain through midday (except snow to rain higher elevations northern Worcester County and southwestern NH), then mostly cloudy with scattered to isolated rain showers but also breaks of sun possible. Highs 38-45 except 45-52 southeastern MA, occurring by late morning before slowly falling during the afternoon. Wind SE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas morning becoming variable for a brief time, then shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds early with a chance of a little light snow southern NH and northern MA, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 36-43. Wind SE up to 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers possible except rain or snow showers closer to the coast especially southern areas early. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-17. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Temperatures are expected to run mostly below normal during this period. We’ll have to watch passing low pressure areas over the January 22-23 weekend and probably another one later in the period for potential wintry precipitation threats.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather (snow etc.) possible as we head toward the end of the first month of 2022.

C-19 Chat Post – January 17 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

Another cold morning across southeastern New England, with low temperatures ranging from around or just below 0 in the outskirts of the WHW forecast area over southwestern NH and parts of central MA to the middle 10s over the ocean-water-modified areas of Cape Cod. The arctic air will start to relax its grip on the region today as high pressure moves overhead, providing bright sunshine for a good part of the day. You’ll notice the advance of some high clouds from the southwest later in the day though, and this is a forerunner of an approaching storm to impact us Monday, pretty much starting right around or shortly after midnight from southwest to northeast. The track of the low pressure area will be west of this region, from PA through NY State and maybe exiting New England via northern VT. The primary low will remain dominant with only a hint at new development just as the occluding frontal system is passing by our region Monday morning. Expect precipitation to start as snow for many areas, but along the coast it will probably begin as a rain/snow mix, or brief snow at most, before going to rain. This rain/snow line will then push northwestward fairly quickly and steadily during the early hours of Monday, maybe with a strip of sleet between the snow and rain. The expected snowfall accumulation hasn’t changed from what I wrote yesterday, and to summarize that, it’s no accumulation on Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod east of the canal, a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH, before all of these areas change to rain. There may be a few amounts in excess of 6 inches in the highest elevations of northern Worcester County and southwestern NH. The precipitation will cut off in the afternoon as a dry-slot moves in from the south, with only just a few scattered rain showers remaining. Wind will be an issue but most especially in coastal areas where wind gusts of 50+ MPH may occur in advance of the low’s passage, prior to the arrival of the dry slot. As the low lifts into Canada, some colder air coming around the back side may result in scattered snow showers (except rain showers at first Cape Cod) Monday evening. Low pressure moving away through the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building into the Great Lakes will bring us a cold and blustery but dry day Tuesday. The next low pressure area is destined for a track through the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday and early Thursday. For our area this means a warm front will pass by early Wednesday with clouds and perhaps a touch of light snow, favoring southern NH and northern MA, a brief spike of somewhat milder air, and a cold front coming through early Thursday with a threat of rain and snow showers, followed by the return of dry and colder air.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Precipitation arriving overnight as rain or brief mix to rain Nantucket and outer Cape Cod, snow elsewhere with accumulation a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH with a couple greater-than-6-inch amounts possible in highest elevations. Lows 15-22 evening, rising overnight. Wind NE to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts Cape Cod / South Coast overnight.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain through midday, then mostly cloudy with scattered to isolated rain showers but also breaks of sun possible. Highs 38-45 except 45-52 southeastern MA, occurring by late morning before slowly falling during the afternoon. Wind SE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas morning becoming variable for a brief time, then shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds early with a chance of a little light snow southern NH and northern MA, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 34-41. Wind SE up to 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers possible except rain or snow showers closer to the coast especially southern areas. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watch for one or potentially 2 storm threats as we’re in a pattern keeping us vulnerable to winter weather threats.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather (snow etc.) possible.

C-19 Chat Post – January 16 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

The arctic chill has hold of our region today, along with wind, so it’s bitterly cold despite bright sun. Bundle up if you have to be outside! The wind drops off tonight / early Sunday but we stay quite cold, recovering a little bit but staying cold and more tranquil Sunday as high pressure settles over the region. Then once again our attention turns to a storm racing this way from the southeastern US. It’s time to detail it, and the most likely track takes a primary low up through PA & NY State while a secondary starts to redevelop pretty much right over the WHW forecast area on Monday (MLK Jr Day). This track, with cold air in place to start, would allow the storm to start at snow for most areas west of the Cape Cod Canal, but probably rain or a brief rain/snow mix going to rain over Cape Cod and the Islands, and then a southeast wind and warming both surface and aloft would rapidly move a rain/snow line northwestward, but not before some snow accumulation, least near the coast, most over interior higher elevations. I’ll mention it again in the detailed forecast below but I’m expecting no accumulation on Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod east of the canal, a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH, before all of these areas change to rain. The precipitation will cut off in the afternoon as we get a dry-slot from the south. Wind will be an issue but most especially in coastal areas where wind gusts of 50+ MPH may occur in advance of the low’s passage, prior to the arrival of the dry slot. As the low lifts into Canada, some colder air coming around the back side may result in scattered snow showers (except rain showers at first Cape Cod) Monday evening. Look for dry but colder weather to dominate Tuesday/Wednesday.

TODAY: Clouds and snow showers outer Cape Cod and Nantucket with minor accumulation through midday then increasing sun. Sunny elsewhere. Highs 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill well below 0 this morning easing to around 0 at times later.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 1-6 except 7-12 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.. Wind chill below 0 early.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Precipitation arriving overnight as rain or brief mix to rain Nantucket and outer Cape Cod, snow elsewhere with accumulation a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH. Lows 15-22 evening, rising overnight. Wind NE to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts Cape Cod / South Coast overnight.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain through midday, then mostly cloudy but breaks of sun possible. Highs 38-45. Wind SE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas morning becoming variable for a brief time, then shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Cold front passes through early January 20 and brings another shot of cold air to the region to end next week. Watch for a possible storm system later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 15 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

Today’s update holds very similar thoughts to yesterday’s. We’re dealing with an offshore ocean storm today that will create increasing wind, especially along the coast, but only minor precipitation, in the form of rain mainly over Cape Cod and up possibly to about Plymouth before it pulls offshore, possibly with a few insignificant snowflakes or some minor accumulation at best at the end later today. But tonight, as the storm intensifies and lifts toward the Canadian Maritimes, it will, combined with high pressure north of the Great Lakes, pull in an arctic air mass with a plunging temperature, a rapid freeze-up of any wet surfaces, and a very low wind chill. The arctic chill will be around right through Saturday night too as the high pressure area presses closer to the region, then sits over us for the early part of Sunday, which will also be a cold but more tranquil day. You’ll notice an increase in high clouds as Sunday goes along, and this will be due to the approach of a low pressure area from the south southwest. The expectation remains that this storm will have a short-lived but significant impact on the region Monday (MLK Jr Day), with its track to determine precipitation type. While I wait for the guidance to help us figure out the storm’s interaction with some energy in the northern jet stream (the storm is being carried by a southern jet stream in a split flow), the leaning will still be toward yesterday’s outlook, a low track that passes over or just west of the WHW forecast area, with precipitation starting as snow inland and snow/mix/rain in coastal areas, with possibly a change to rain pushing inland, but not 100% certain this will happen just yet, so the wording of the detailed forecast will remain vague enough to cover this uncertainty, which will be detailed more on tomorrow’s and Sunday’s blog updates. The storm, in whatever form we see its precipitation, will exit late Monday and be followed by drier, colder weather Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. A period of rain Cape Cod / Islands that may end as mix with or change to snow this afternoon with brief minor accumulation of snow possible. Clouds may thin especially in western areas later. Highs 37-42 except 42-47 Cape Cod this morning. Temperatures falling this afternoon by midday. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts, as high as 40 MPH inland and as high as 60 MPH over Cape Cod by later in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower anywhere but snow showers likely Cape Cod / Islands where some accumulation is likely. Lows 1-6 except 7-12 Cape Cod. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often well below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy with possible snow showers outer Cape Cod. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-8 except 9-14 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.. Wind chill below 0 early.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain/mix/snow arriving overnight. Temperatures rise to 30s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely, ending by late. Highs 38-45. Wind SE to variable 10-20 MPH, stronger gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Sun and clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

Watch for a couple addition but probably weaker systems to bring mostly minor precipitation threats with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Temperatures near to below normal and additional opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 14 2022