DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 25-29)

Discussion…

A reminder: We’re still dealing with guidance that struggles more than would be typical due to deficient data for initialization, and it shows daily. Just yesterday we went from one GFS run showing measurable snow early October 31 in a good portion of southern New England to the next run showing dry/cold weather for the exact same time. It can be a challenge to try to figure out where the model mess-ups are and what they should really be forecasting – a daily struggle, fun at times, frustrating at others. A few adjustments have been made to this forecast but nothing too drastic. As expected, our mild air mass that started the weekend has been replaced by a much cooler one as the air is coming out of eastern Canada via the Maritime Provinces. It’s dry air though, and today will be a chilly late October day, although you will notice the presence of high & mid level cloudiness streaming in from the southwest which will dim and even blot out the sun at times. This is high level moisture in advance of an approaching warm front which, as it approaches the region later tonight and Monday, will cause the clouds to lower and thicken. Such fronts are often known for producing decent overrunning rain, but it appears this one will fail to do that, producing only spotty lighter rainfall at times during Monday. Tuesday, we’ll have a cold front slowly pushing through the region, but the closer we get to this, the more it looks like the front will be starved for moisture, and clouds will be dominant with only limited rain shower activity. High pressure should poke its way into the area for fair weather Wednesday, but the front that goes through on Tuesday will not be far away, and another wave of low pressure is expected to form on the front and may bring another chance of wet weather by Thursday. But there’s plenty of time for this system to fail to materialize as the models currently show. 😉

Details…

TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of light rain and drizzle probable. Highs 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers during the morning. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30- NOVEMBER 3)

Model performance renders them basically useless from here onward. Educated guess forecast is that we remain unsettled for a portion of October 30 as the low pressure passes south of the region, but as cold air is moving into the region it will be a race between it and the drier air to see if any of that rain can end as a mix or some snow briefly before we clear out later October 30. Halloween October 31 looks dry and cold. There’s some uncertainty but a disturbance may come by sometime November 1 or 2 with a few rain/snow showers before a reinforcing shot of cold/dry air arrives. Still have to work out the details on that part of the forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

This period still looks mainly dry with polar jet stream domination. As high pressure sinks to the south of the region we should see a warm-up initially before a cold front brings a new batch of cold air from Canada eventually. Again, timing such details will be impossible this far out, so just that general idea for now.

C-19 Chat Post – October 25 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Discussion…

After 2 recent significant rain events put a small dent in the ongoing drought, we’ve slipped back to old habits of longer stretches without significant rainfall, and despite some upcoming unsettled weather, the overall pattern will continue to support a sustained or even increased drought. But that doesn’t mean every day will be the same. We do have quite a few changes to talk about, most prominently a strong cold front that will make its way eastward across the region today. This front lacks support for much in the way of rain shower activity but otherwise has a sharpness to it, as it will introduce a new air mass in a rather abrupt way. Once it passes a given location, the temperature will waste no time starting to drop. Many locations that make a run at 70 today will find themselves in the 30s by Sunday morning, and the temperature recovery Sunday will be modest as a north to northeast wind feeds additional chilly air in via eastern Canada. Sunday will be a bright fall day through with plenty of sun and just passing clouds during the morning and into the afternoon, a good day for taking a ride to see the last of peak orange/red foliage color wave. We will already see an increase in high and mid level cloudiness later Sunday ahead of some unsettled weather early next week as a warm front moves through Monday and then a cold front moves very slowly across the region Tuesday, producing some episodes of rainfall, though much of it looks on the light side and not very helpful for our drought. High pressure should nose into the region by Wednesday with drier weather.

Details…

TODAY: Partial sun some areas early, lots of cloudiness otherwise with a passing rain shower possible, then some clearing from the west toward days’s end. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W west to east during the day, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain likely. Highs 52-59. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29- NOVEMBER 2)

Watching for another wave of low pressure from the south with potential unsettled weather October 29 into October 30 before dry and colder weather for the remainder of October 30 and October 31. Another risk of some wet weather around November 1 and a shot of colder air to follow.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Mostly dry weather for this period, temperatures start below normal then moderate to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – October 24 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Discussion…

High pressure centered to the north of New England will continue to send an easterly air flow into the region today, but a batch of somewhat drier air will help to dissipate the cloudiness from east to west as we move through the day before it returns tonight as the high center slips southeastward and our air flow turns more southerly. Cloudiness will continue to be dominant through much of Saturday in a slightly more humid southerly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front. While this is a fairly sharp front, it does not have alot of support for producing much in the way of rain shower activity. What it will definitely do is introduce a much cooler air mass by the end of the day Saturday, which will then be with us through Sunday as an area of high pressure sends polar air into the region via eastern Canada. This high center, like its predecessor, will slip southeastward by Monday and Tuesday when we will see a return to cloudiness and some unsettled weather, although it appears any rain will be significantly limited. This rather dry 5-day period will allow drought conditions, which recently improved slightly, to worsen once again.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and a chance of very light drizzle morning. Clearing east to west midday-afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest at the coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance for a passing rain shower. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts from west to east.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28- NOVEMBER 1)

Currently thinking drier for October 28 as high pressure noses in between disturbances, then another low ripples along the boundary just to the southeast of the area but close enough for a wet weather chance October 29, followed by a push of dry but chilly air for October 30-31, then moderating but watching for a possible low pressure area bringing a rain chance November 1.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

The overall pattern looks dry, but a shot of colder air is very possible early in the period followed by a moderating trend again.

C-19 Chat Post – October 23 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Discussion…

The dry and mild October weather continues for a few more days, with lower humidity than we saw the last couple of days as high pressure crests north of the area. This also means that a more easterly air flow will develop and will keep coastal areas a little cooler, though not as cool in comparison if this were a springtime easterly wind. The air flow turns more southwesterly ahead of a cold front Saturday – a front that will be moisture starved but won’t lack the ability to let us know when it comes through, as temperature may tumble as much as 30 to 35 degrees off Saturday’s highs to Sunday morning’s lows, and a lot of that temperature drop will occur over a several hour period Saturday evening. So if you have longer-outdoor plans anywhere on Saturday that go into evening, bring a jacket that you won’t need during the day, but will very likely need as evening sets in. This sets up a much cooler day for Sunday with a north to northeast air flow, which turns more easterly to southerly during the course of Monday as once again high pressure passes to the north of the region then moves southeastward to east of New England. We’ll introduce the chance of rain showers on Monday as well as low pressure tracks north of the region and drags a warm front through the region.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75, turning cooler along east-facing shores this afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny middle of day, mostly cloudy finish. An afternoon shower possible in southern NH and northern MA. Highs 66-73. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S late in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

A cold front will be in the region from October 27 to early October 29 with a couple opportunities for rain showers along with drier interludes. A stronger low pressure wave should pull the front offshore during October 29 with a shot of much cooler air arriving and lasing into the last couple days of the month. For now expecting dry weather to end the month, but medium range guidance has been anything but consistent so will keep an eye on trends with that as well as the overall pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

The early days of November look mostly dry with variable temperatures, a milder start, a cool shot, then moderating, based on current timing.

C-19 Chat Post – October 22 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Discussion…

We have plenty of low level moisture for fog & drizzle around the region to start the day today, but not enough lift ahead of a cold front to produce any meaningful showers. That front will get right into the region and may even get all the way through the area by tonight and Thursday, creating a wind shift and putting the area into a different-feeling air mass, in terms of lower humidity, although it will still be mild. A bubble of high pressure moves north of the area on Friday with a light but easterly air flow for the area making it a touch cooler than Thursday, and then Saturday we’re back in a southerly air flow ahead of a cold front. The timing of this front is a little uncertain, with some guidance in recent runs indicating a little faster approach and passage, but with no significant shower activity, as the area will be under the drying influence of air surrounding Hurricane Epsilon which will be passing well southeast of New England this weekend. What that hurricane will do, as others have, is stir up the seas so we’ll have some larger swells and rough surf impacting the coastline during the weekend. Yesterday I was a little concerned about the front Saturday slowing down and being an avenue for additional moisture and a chance of some rainfall for Sunday, but right now it looks like high pressure will have enough push to give us a dry and cooler Sunday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle morning. Mostly cloudy but a few breaks of sun possible afternoon. Humid. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Humid. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Drier air. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny middle of day, mostly cloudy finish. An afternoon shower possible in southern NH and northern MA. Highs 66-73. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a risk of a passing shower, then clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

More questions to be answered heading into the final days of October. High pressure centered north to east of the region early next week should turn winds from easterly to southerly with lots of cloudiness and some damp weather, although at this point I am not looking for any significant rainfall. Around October 28 a stronger front should move through with rain showers then a turn to chilly weather, at least briefly. Another disturbance may already be in the area by the end of the period, but medium range guidance varies vastly on the details of this system, so for now just going to lean toward a chance of unsettled weather to end this period and re-evaluate with new information.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Trends are for a shot of significantly chilly air to end October followed by a moderating trend but mostly dry weather into the early days of November.

C-19 Chat Post – October 21 2020