IMPORTANT THINGS TO REMEMBER…
* When viewing a map on TV or the internet or reading my ranges here on the blog, pay attention to the snowfall forecast range, NOT just the top number! Assuming the forecast is correct, you will receive anywhere from the bottom number of the range to the top number of the range, and most likely something in between.
* Do not wake up first thing Monday morning and say “Where’s all the snow?! They are wrong again! I wish I could be wrong 90% of the time and still get paid!” Not that most of you would say the last thing. Remember, the storm is forecast to take place over the course of the day and into the evening. It will take time for the snow to accumulate.
* The term “blizzard” has NOTHING to do with snow accumulation. A blizzard is defined by 3 or more consecutive hours of winds frequently 35 MPH or greater, and visibility of under 1/4 mile in falling AND/OR blowing snow. It technically does not have to be snowing to have blizzard conditions, though a true ground blizzard is fairly rare in this part of the country, and more common in the Plains.
DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)…
Cold front drops down from northern New England to supply some colder air tonight and Monday as low pressure deepens into a very strong and very broad storm system well offshore to the south and southeast of New England, but large enough to throw a significant shield of snow back into southern New England. A Winter Storm Warning is up for the WHW forecast area and a Blizzard Warning is up for Plymouth County of MA as well as all of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. You can find the definition of blizzard above. The main time frame for the storm Monday will be from the pre-dawn hours to early evening in areas south of Boston, and from around dawn to mid evening from Boston north. A boundary, called a coastal front, is likely to set up early in the storm from near Boston southward through southeastern MA and down toward Cape Cod. East of this line, relatively milder air will mean a wetter, pasty snow to start, and with some trees already stressed from recent snow, there may be some additional trees and power lines coming down. West of this line, the snow will be a lighter and drier variety. This line will push to the east during the storm, and areas that start with wet snow will transition to a drier snow. Strongest winds will be found in coastal areas, especially southeastern MA (details to come below). Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely at high tide times, especially along east-facing and north-facing shores. After this system moves beyond the region, the trough remains along the East Coast and additional energy will spawn another low which will be smaller and weaker than its predecessor. It should come close enough for some snow across parts of the region and I’ll fine-tune this tomorrow. Additional snow showers will be around both Wednesday, from the lingering trough in the area, and Thursday, from the passage of a cold front.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arrives South Coast pre-dawn, may be mixed with rain at first. Lows 18-25 southern NH and interior MA, 25-33 coastal MA to RI. Wind light NW to N.
MONDAY: Overcast. Snow spreads northward and any mix near the South Coast turns to snow. Heaviest snow and blowing snow will occur over southeastern MA. Blizzard conditions are possible from Plymouth County of MA through Cape Cod and the Islands. Temperatures start out near 20 northwest of Boston and stay there, and fall from the lower 30s into the 20s to the southeast. Wind NE 15-35 MPH with higher gusts. Wind gusts may exceed 45 MPH along the coast especially south of Boston.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow tapering off from south to north. Total snow accumulation… 2-5 inches Boston west and north, 5-9 inches southeastern MA into RI. Blowing snow reducing visibility at times. Lows 15-22. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers day. Clouding up with a chance of snow at night, especially southern areas. Highs 25-32.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow early, favoring southern and eastern areas. Another period of snow possible at night. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 15-22. Highs 25-32.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)…
Small clipper system brings cloudiness and a chance of a little light snow or a snow shower February 12 then opens the door to a shot of very cold Arctic air for the weekend February 13-14, easing up by Presidents Day February 15. A system from the west brings a chance of snow/mix/rain by February 16.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)…
Some precipitation for at least part of February 17. Fair and colder February 18-19 followed by a warming trend February 20-21 with mostly dry weather continuing.