Thursday Forecast

2:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)
Here is a breakdown of the weather I expect to occur during the next 5 days – classic New England winter weather at its “finest”…
We begin with a cold but day today as high pressure moves in from Canada. This high will not hang around and will make way for a minor low pressure system moving across New England Friday, passing north of southern New England. Its warm front will produce a period of snow (mix to rain to the south) with minor accumulation as it passes through during Friday morning. Its cold front will come through later in the day fairly uneventful, but it will open the door for cold air again which will settle in during Friday night and Saturday. And then we turn our attention to the well-advertised bigger storm for Sunday. It will actually move in during Saturday night, as snow spread west to east during the evening hours. The low pressure center which will be coming out of the Ohio Valley is likely to “jump the mountains” and redevelop near the Delmarva. The very cold high pressure system in eastern Canada will likely cause the center of this system to pass just south of New England. It won’t be a powerful low, but the combination of it and the high to the north, warm air to the south feeding the system and arctic cold banked over New England are the ingredients for a significant winter weather event. This low will also be fairly elongated and not concentrated in one compact powerful center. So how does it impact southeastern New England? This is how I think it goes. Heaviest of the snowfall for the entire region will be Saturday night, in the late-night hours or pre-dawn hours of Sunday, however warmer air working in aloft and more marginal surface temperatures along the South Coast will turn the snow to a period of sleet then rain there fairly quickly, so accumulations are expected to be most minimal there. We are very likely to see the warm air aloft work its way northward into a good portion of southern New England during the course of the precipitation event, which continues through most of the day Sunday. All the while, the cold air will be very stubborn near the ground. As you know, the temperatures profile in the atmosphere will determine what falls in any given location. My best guess at this point is that we see mostly snow with possible sleet mix across southern NH to the I-495 belt of MA down to about the Mass Pike, and in these areas my first guess for snowfall is 8-14 inches. In a fairly wide band which includes the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to the Mass Pike and the city of Boston the snow will be followed by sleet and a first guess for this band of real estate is 4-8 inches of snow topped with sleet. To the south, in the Plymouth MA to Providence RI and southeastern CT corridor, I’d expect a turn to rain, however a narrow strip of freezing rain would be possible near the sleet/rain line depending on surface temperatures (something to watch closely) but these areas would see 2-4 inches of snow before a changeover, and a coating to 2 inch snow amount early in the storm would occur closer to the South Coast including much of Cape Cod. PLEASE keep in mind that I am first guessing these amounts 3 days before the storm and these are not solid final numbers just yet. There is a lot of wiggle room still at this point, as just mere miles difference in storm track / temperature profile impacts these boundaries. Regardless of the details of the storm, it will be ready to pull the cold air right back in as it starts to move away Sunday evening, so everybody ends as snow tapering to snow showers. The big question: Will the clouds break in time for at least a little bit of view of the total lunar eclipse that takes place from Sunday evening to the early hours of Monday morning? Time will tell. What is certain is that bitterly cold arctic air will be in place, along with plenty of wind, for the MLK Jr birthday observance on Monday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Areas of snow arrive overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Cloudy morning with areas of snow, accumulating a coating to 1 inch but some 2 inch amounts possible higher elevations of central MA and southern NH, but changing to mix/rain South Coast, ending midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny day. Cloudy with snow arriving west to east at night. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Significant storm of snow/sleet/ice/rain. Temperatures range from 20s north and west to near 40 Cape Cod during the day, falling rapidly at night.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Windy. Lows from the lower to middle 0s. Highs from the upper 0s to middle 10s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)
Not highly confident on this forecast but the idea would be for dry/cold January 22, milder with rain/snow showers January 23, dry/colder January 24, and another low pressure system potentially impacting the region later in the period with a precipitation threat.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)
Will be monitoring for a lobe of Polar Vortex and where it ends up. Further east and we’re colder and drier with a few light snow threats. Further west, not quite as cold but possibly stormier. Leaning toward the colder/drier scenario at this time. Will re-evalulate this period in future updates.

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Wednesday Forecast

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)
And now both systems are in the 5-day range, but for today’s update I’ll put some numbers to event number 1 and stay vague on event number 2 because we may not be through seeing guidance adjustment. If ever the 3-day-rule for guidance and 2-day rule for hard numbers applied, this will be the time. First, a slightly milder day today but becoming breezy as a cold front approaches. This front may bring a shower of mixed rain and snow, or snow, to a few locations this evening but it will be largely a dry passage, returning cold air to the region for Thursday. A minor low pressure system is still set to pass through on Friday with some snow/mix north, mix/rain south (see below for numbers). A break Saturday as cold air returns yet again and sets the stage for a larger winter storm that arrives in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday and lasts much of the day. What remains uncertain is precipitation type, snow/ice/rain areas, and how quickly it moves out. Will try to have a much more solid idea on this for tomorrow’s update.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing mix rain/snow or snow shower possible early. Lows 15-22. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing during the day.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of mix south, snow north before dawn. Temperatures rise to upper 20s north, lower 30s south. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Mix to rain South Coast, snow ending as mix/rain elsewhere from west to east. Snow accumulation of less than 1 inch South Coast, coating to 2 inches elsewhere with 2 inch amounts most likely southern NH and central MA. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable becoming W 5-15 MPH later in the day.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
SUNDAY: Overcast with snow/ice/rain likely. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 40s north to south.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)
Dry, windy, very cold MLK Jr Day Monday January 21. Gradual temperature moderation through mid period with the next event more likely to be mix to rain but far out there so will keep an eye on it. Drier weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)
Colder as a broad trough overtakes the weather with a couple clipper type systems bringing snow threats, based on current pattern trends. Still not highly confident about the pattern evolution yet.

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Tuesday Forecast

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)
Since the media has made most people forget that there is actually a low pressure area to contend with before the end-of-the-world comes on Sunday, we’ll focus on that one here since it actually falls within the 5-day forecast period in this section of the blog. But first, a seasonably chilly day today with fair weather as high pressure shifts southwest of the region. This will be followed by slightly milder air counteracted by a stronger breeze on Wednesday, but still a nice January day overall, holding a few more clouds, however, than today will. A cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night, perhaps bringing a snow shower, but certainly bringing colder air back for Thursday. This cold air mass will be fleeting, though, and the first of a series of Pacific low pressure systems will arrive from the west on Friday, bringing a combination of snow and rain to the region. This will not be a major system, but its timing may have some impact on the Friday morning commute. By Saturday, more cold air will settle in behind that system and the second low will be heading through the Ohio Valley, bringing clouds back to the region, and depending on its timing, possibly some snow by Saturday night.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind light NW to W.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 15-22. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing during the day.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix north, mix/rain south. Temperatures rise into the 30s.
SATURDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Chance of snow at night. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)
Storm threat for January 20 with uncertainty on exact low pressure configuration, strength, timing, and track. The storm has the potential to produce significant precipitation. Dry, windy, much colder January 21. Dry and cold mid period, then milder with next unsettled weather threat possible by late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)
Potential low pressure systems around January 26 and 28 but not high confidence forecast. Temperatures near to below normal. Will be tracking a lobe of the polar vortex but unsure if it makes it fully into the area at this time.

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Monday Forecast

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)
High pressure relaxes control of the weather as the center shifts southwestward into the Ohio Valley during the next 3 days. First, this will bring an end to the ocean effect snow shower threat for the coast of MA today and also allow the cold to ease somewhat into midweek. In fact, by Wednesday, a westerly breeze will bring somewhat milder air into the region, and some areas may reach or exceed 40. But that won’t past because an arctic cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night and put us right back into the cold air for Thursday. However a push of slightly milder air will return from the west along with a weak low pressure area Friday, bringing a precipitation threat with it.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers eastern MA coast and Cape Cod to southern RI especially early, with additional minor accumulation possible. Highs 27-34. Wind light NE becoming N.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind light N to NW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind light NW to W.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers at night. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix north, mix/rain south. Temperatures rise into the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)
Watching the weekend of January 19-20 for a storm threat but this system may end up passing largely south of the region despite what recent and current model guidance says. Will work on details in the next few days. Mainly dry and cold thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)
May have another passing system with rain/mix/snow about mid period but highly uncertain. Temperatures near to mostly below normal.

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Sunday Forecast

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)
Arctic high pressure assures us that a storm passes well to the south of southeastern New England today but as it expands and turns more to the northeast after going by, the air flow between it and the high will enhance a northeasterly flow and create some ocean effect snow showers over Cape Cod later today and these may expand northward along the eastern MA coast and even westward somewhat along the South Coast into Monday morning. Minor localized snow accumulations may occur if bands set up over any region for a while. By later Monday this wind flow weakens and turns more northerly, putting an end to any snow showers and just keeping it chilly and dry, with this continuing Tuesday. By Wednesday we will have moderated with a more westerly air flow but this will be ahead of an arctic cold front which will reinforce the cold air again by Wednesday night and Thursday, maybe announcing it with a passing snow shower or snow squall.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Late-day snow showers possible Cape Cod. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Coastal snow showers expand from Cape Cod to South Shore and possible Cape Ann MA. Minor accumulation possible.
Lows 10-17. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers eastern MA coast and Cape Cod to southern RI especially early, with additional minor accumulation possible. Highs 27-34. Wind light NE becoming N.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind light N to NW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind light NW to W.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)
A low pressure system moves in from the west January 18 bringing a minor mix/snow event and this front hangs around into the January 19 with additional low pressure moving up along it. Yesterday I expressed uncertainty on how this would behave and I’m still uncertain but today I will lean toward a quicker-moving system rippling the front back to the north and bringing a mix to rain event in January 19 ending as mix/snow as colder air returns by early January 20, followed by windy, colder, drier weather later January 20 through January 21. Next system may bring a light snow threat by January 22 but looking that far out in this pattern is highly uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)
May have another passing system with rain/mix/snow about mid period but highly uncertain. Overall trend is still cold.

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Saturday Forecast

8:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)
Arctic high pressure makes the weekend cold but keeps a storm south of the region. We will only see some cloudiness from it especially later today and early Sunday as it passes by. A few ocean-effect snow showers cannot be ruled out for Cape Cod and maybe even the South Shore later Sunday and Cape Cod to as far west as southern RI by early Monday. High pressure shifts into the Ohio Valley and allows slight temperature moderation from Monday to Wednesday, but by late Wednesday another arctic cold front will be coming out of Canada and heading into the region…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day snow showers possible Cape Cod. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except some clouds and snow showers possible Cape Cod and possibly the South Shore. Lows 8-15. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers Cape Cod to southern RI especially early. Highs 27-34. Wind light NE becoming light variable.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)
Dry and cold January 17. Weak system from the west may produce light snow/mix January 18, not quite as cold. A little uncertainty on the January 19-21 MLK Jr Weekend as a system is likely to pass through the region with unsettled weather at some point, but at this point a case can be made for a low center either passing through the Great Lakes for a milder shot of air then rain showers ending as snow showers as colder air returns, or a quicker return of cold and a system being pushed further to the south and missing the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)
Cold/dry start to this period but the threat of some wintry weather may increase before it’s over.

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Friday Forecast

6:55AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)
Arctic high pressure settles in gradually through Sunday with a stretch of very cold weather and this high also will serve to keep a storm system well to the south of the region as it passes by on Sunday. The only impacts from it will be some cloudiness across the sky later Saturday into Sunday and perhaps some ocean-effect snow flurries over Cape Cod Sunday and early Monday. By early next week the high pressure center will have shifted southwestward into the Ohio Valley with a nose of it toward New England, bringing a slightly milder westerly flow to the region, allowing temperatures back toward seasonal averages as dry weather continues.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25, coldest in higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-15, least-cold urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers Cape Cod early. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)
Arctic cold front passes later January 16, a milder day turns much colder by night with a risk of a snow shower or snow squall with front. Fair, cold January 17. Disturbance from the west may bring a threat of some light snow January 18. Next storm system may run through the Great Lakes during the January 19-20 weekend bringing milder and windy weather Saturday January 19, rain showers ending as snow showers Sunday January 20 as cold air returns.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)
Overall pattern looks cold/dry with odds favoring the next storm threat being suppressed to the south of New England around mid period.

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Thursday Forecast

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)
A disturbance passing through the region this morning will produce some snow showers and clouds may hang around much of the day as the next round of cold air arrives from Canada. We will feel this in full force by tonight and then continuing through the coming weekend as high pressure moves in and keeps a storm system south of the region. Backing off the idea of ocean-effect snow showers for Saturday but keeping them in along the South Shore and Cape Cod for Sunday. Other than these minor instances of snow showers the theme is dry and cold.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers pushing northwest to southeast across the region early to mid morning will dust the ground in places. Highs 32-39. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25, coldest in higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-15, least-cold urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers South Shore and Cape Cod. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)
For mid winter the weather pattern will be fairly benign overall, on the cold/dry side but we will have to watch for a possible system bringing a snow threat around January 18. Not a high confidence forecast but something to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)
Similar pattern continues, one or two possible systems to watch at some point during this period but no early signals of any major storms.

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Wednesday Forecast

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)
Low pressure nearly overhead pulls away today turning a damp dawn with fairly light wind into a cloud-dominated but splashes of sun day with increasing wind. It won’t get all that cold, however, as this is an intensifying low pulling away in not-that-cold an airmass. The cold air will arrive in stages, tonight through Thursday night, on a gusty northwesterly wind, and by Friday and the weekend we’ll be in the coldest air mass since late November. During the weekend we’ll be watching 2 things, the possibility of some onshore flow setting up and producing coastal snow showers, especially South Shore and Cape Cod, and a storm passing south of the region on Sunday, which at this time still looks like it will keep its own snow shield to the south of the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of drizzle and fog evolving into lots of clouds with occasional sun. Highs 37-44 morning, lowering through the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 26-31. Wind W to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25, coldest in higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers, favoring Cape Cod. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s except lower 30s Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers, favoring South Shore and South Coast. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s to near 30.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)
We’ll be left between a subtropical jet to the south and polar jet to the north, and perhaps with a very weak disturbance producing some clouds at times January 14-15 with seasonably cold weather. An arctic cold front comes through with colder air arriving January 16-17. A disturbance from the west may bring a snow threat by the end of the period though as best as I can tell this does not look like a major storm threat, however it is still many days away.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)
Current idea continues to be suppression of the subtropical jet and occasional visits from the polar jet stream for an overall colder and drier than average pattern. Will watch for fronts and/or clippers to bring relatively minor snow chances.

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Tuesday Forecast

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)
No big changes in the overall idea about the weather in the coming few days. First we have the double-barrel but relatively minor system coming through today with its snow of minor accumulation ending as rain showers, and tomorrow’s slightly more potent developing system, passing just north of southern New England, bringing a period of rain and then snow showers and wind on its back side as colder air returns. What you will very much notice, previewed yesterday morning, is some very cold air moving in during Thursday on a gusty wind, and hanging around into the coming weekend, with mainly dry weather. Although Saturday we’ll have to watch the wind as it may turn onshore and bring a fair amount of cloudiness and even the potential for a few snow showers, while at the same time some higher cloudiness comes across from a mid level disturbance passing by.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow and freezing drizzle with additional accumulation of under 1 inch but a few icy patches during this morning. Scattered rain showers midday and early afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns west to east but may be mixed with snow southwestern NH and north central MA. Lows 31-38. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers changing to snow showers with minor accumulation possible. Highs 38-45 morning, falling to the middle to lower 30s afternoon. Wind SW to W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 26-31. Wind W to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 10s. Highs from the upper 10s to middle 20s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers, favoring the coast. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s except lower 30s Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)
A storm system is expected to pass south of the region Sunday January 13, far enough to keep its snow shield away but close enough to possibly bring additional ocean effect snow showers to Cape Cod and possibly the South Shore with a higher chance of dry weather elsewhere, and quite cold. The early to mid portion of next week should be generally dry with temperatures near to below normal as we see a slight recovery from the coldest air but no big push of mild air as we’ll be between the subtropical jet to the south and polar jet just to the north.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)
The trend for this period is now for the overall pattern to be fairly dry and on the seasonable to slightly colder than average side from the pattern described just above. But again with recent poor performance of guidance and less than totally dependable teleconnections in trying to predict medium range, I say this with low to moderate confidence.

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