The Dries Of March

10:53PM

SUMMARY…
In a season of unforgettable Winter events, add another. This is the sharp edge snow event of Thursday in which a strung-out snowfall took place in southeastern New England. Snow amounts were only traces in the immediate Boston area with nothing to the north, but heading south amounts build quickly to around 6 inches in Plymouth to around a foot on parts of Cape Cod. As of 10PM Thursday, snow continues to fall on parts of the Cape. But overnight it finally clears in all areas with very cold air pushing in. This will lead to a bright but very cold Friday, another day of well below average temperatures. Moderation will occur this weekend, and even more next week, as temperatures get to near to below average for a few days. Deep snow cover will continues to modify warm-ups for some time, none of them reaching their bare-ground potential. What will be absent will be significant storm threats with only minor systems traversing the area.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows 0-15 from the outlying areas to Cape Cod. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH morning, light variable afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-15. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

Posted in Weather | 27 Comments

Quick Update

8:00PM

Pardon the lack of update. Been running around with many things to take care of. “March Madness”. :)

SUMMARY…
A cold front settles south of New England and wave of low pressure moves along it tonight. As cold air filters in, precipitation will arrive, mix to snow, and bring a light accumulation to portions of the region, with some moderate amounts possible toward the South Coast. This all exits Thursday morning. Clearing and much colder weather arrives Thursday night, and Friday will be a very cold day for early March but with dry weather. The weekend will still be on the cold side of normal, though not as cold as Friday. A weak system moving through around Saturday night and early Sunday may produce a few snow showers. Early next week another small system may make a run at the region, probably around Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation arrives southwest to northeast as brief rain/snow mix then changes to snow and accumulates a coating to 1 inch southern NH and northern MA, 1 to 3 inches Boston to Worcester southward except 3-6 inches portions of South Coast. Lows in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow early South Coast. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 5-10 inland, 10-15 coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers late. Low 15. High 35.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 25. High 30.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers late. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 25. High 40.

Posted in Weather | 291 Comments

Active Early March

1:06AM

SUMMARY…
More cold, more storminess, but we’re very slowly climbing out of the worst of the deep cave of Winter 2015. But we’ll still be having our moments of storminess including some Winter weather, and 2 are coming up in fairly quick succession. The first will be from low pressure tracking northwest of New England Tuesday night and Wednesday. Its warm front will approach late Tuesday and bring a swath of snow into southern New England, producing up to a few quick inches before warmer air aloft turns the snow to sleet/ice/rain (depending on location) then finally ending as scattered rain showers early Wednesday as milder air makes it to the surface behind the passing warm front. A cold front will quickly follow, but will not have any meaningful precipitation with it. This front will settle just southeast of the region by Wednesday night, and then a wave of low pressure will move northeastward along it, passing southeast of New England Thursday morning and midday, as the colder air comes back into the region. This will produce snow, which may start as rain or a mix, across southeastern New England for the morning and early afternoon of Thursday, with the greatest chance for significant snow accumulation in southeastern MA and RI. After this system departs, look for a dry but cold Friday. A weak low pressure area will cross the Great Lakes and move north of the area later Saturday and early Sunday with a few snow showers possible. This will be followed by a small area of high pressure and dry and chilly weather for later Sunday into Monday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 25-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH early, becoming SE 5-15 MPH by late day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives west to east early and accumulates 1 to 3 inches during the evening, then changes to sleet and rain from south to north, some freezing rain inland, late evening before tapering off overnight with just a few lingering rain showers except a few icy pockets inland. Temperature rise into the 30s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Highs 35-40 interior valleys, 40-45 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain and snow arriving southwest to northeast, changing to snow. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with snow, accumulating a coating to a few inches southern NH and northern MA, a few to several inches southern MA and RI, tapering off by late. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers late. Low 20. High 35.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 25. High 35.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

Posted in Weather | 650 Comments

The Winter Review / The Week Ahead / The Spring Ahead

7:42PM

The Winter Review

Here in Woburn, in the northwest suburbs of Boston, Winter got off to a slow start, snow-wise, though if you include November as part of your Winter season, it felt like Winter a little early as it was a chilly month. This was followed by a mild, wet, and nearly snowless December. Things changed again in January which was a cold and mainly dry month for its first 3 weeks with limited snow. Here in Woburn, through January 23, less than 10 inches of snow had fallen for the season-to-date, while Boston had seen 5.5 inches of snow. In a joking yet serious way, sometime in early or mid January I had noted on the blog that I felt most of the snow for the Winter would take place during the period January 24 through March 8. Of course at the time, I wasn’t expecting the pattern to change essentially ON January 24 (the first storm of what would become a seemingly endless barrage of storms that shattered several records). The dates were really picked as a rough boundary around what I thought would be a period of active storminess. I did not expect the extreme cold that ended up accompanying this very stormy period. Here we sit on March 1 now, the first day of Meteorological Spring, but still in Astronomical Winter and also still in a Winter weather pattern, a new snow event getting underway as of the writing of this blog. Will the pattern last until exactly March 8? Probably not exactly, but it is safe to say we are by the worst of the cold and frequent snow even though we are not quite clear of bouts of this kind of weather. More to come on this below. Before that we’ll look at the coming week, and before that still, I will end this section with a review of Meteorological Winter for some southern New England cities, prepared by the National Weather Service.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1253 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

…WINTER 2014-2015 IN REVIEW…

ALL DATA PRESENTED HEREIN IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO REVISION.

ANY MONTHLY RECORDS FALLING WITHIN THE TOP TEN OF THE PERIOD OF
RECORD WILL BE ANNOTATED IN THE REMARKS SECTION IMMEDIATELY RIGHT.

BOSTON

…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1872 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-

DEC: 43.7 32.7 38.2 6.56 0.3
+2.5 +4.5 +3.5 +2.78 -8.7

JAN: 33.1 19.0 26.1 3.57 34.3 6TH SNOWIEST
-2.7 -3.2 -2.9 +0.21 +21.4

FEB: 27.8 10.1 19.0 3.37 64.8 2ND COLDEST
-10.9 -14.6 -12.7 +0.12 +53.9 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST

SEASONAL SUMMARY
——————

WINTER: 34.9 20.6 27.8 13.50 99.4 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST
-3.7 -4.5 -4.0 +3.11 +66.6

RECORDS
——-
12/09…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.90…PREVIOUSLY 1.29 IN 1956.
12/25…RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE…44…PREVIOUSLY 43 IN 1888.
01/27…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…22.1…PREVIOUSLY 8.8 IN 2011.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…16.2…PREVIOUSLY 11.1 IN 1974.
02/09…TIED RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…14.8…ALSO SET IN 2013.
02/15…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…13.0…PREVIOUSLY 11.0 IN 1940.
FEB…RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL…64.8…PREVIOUSLY 41.6 IN 2003.
WINTER…RECORD SEASONAL SNOWFALL…99.4…PREVIOUSLY 81.5 IN 1993-1994.
ALL-TIME…MONTHLY SNOWFALL…64.8…PREVIOUSLY 43.3 IN JANUARY 2005.
ALL-TIME…2ND COLDEST MONTHLY AVG…19.0…RECORD IS 17.5 – FEB 1934.

________________________________________________________________

HARTFORD

…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-

DEC: 42.0 29.3 35.7 4.55 0.7 9TH LEAST SNOWIEST
+2.3 +5.9 +4.1 +1.11 -6.7

JAN: 32.3 14.3 23.3 3.23 17.1
-2.2 -3.4 -2.8 0.00 +4.8

FEB: 27.2 4.9 16.1 2.95 31.9 ALL-TIME COLDEST
-11.3 -16.0 -13.6 +0.06 +20.9 3RD SNOWIEST

SEASONAL SUMMARY
——————

WINTER: 33.8 16.2 25.0 10.73 49.7
-3.7 -4.5 -4.1 +1.17 +19.0

RECORDS
——-
12/09…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.77…PREVIOUSLY 1.33 IN 1978.
12/25…RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE…43…PREVIOUSLY 42 IN 1987.
01/18…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.32…PREVIOUSLY 0.99 IN 2006.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…10.8…PREVIOUSLY 6.5 IN 1916.
02/06…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-7…PREVIOUSLY -5 IN 1988/1910.
02/20…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-4…PREVIOUSLY -3 IN 1936.
02/21…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-9…PREVIOUSLY -2 IN 1972/1950.
02/24…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-8…PREVIOUSLY -4 IN 1907.
FEB…RECORD COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…16.1…PREV 16.5 IN 1934.
ALL-TIME…COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…16.1…PREV 16.5 IN FEB 1934.

________________________________________________________________

PROVIDENCE

…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-

DEC: 44.8 31.0 37.9 6.25 0.9
+2.5 +4.7 +3.6 +2.03 -7.8

JAN: 34.2 18.2 26.2 3.62 25.6 5TH SNOWIEST
-3.2 -2.8 -3.0 -0.24 +16.6

FEB: 28.3 8.5 18.4 2.73 31.8 2ND COLDEST
-12.0 -15.1 -13.6 -0.56 +23.3 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST

SEASONAL SUMMARY
—————-

WINTER: 35.8 19.2 27.5 12.60 58.3 3RD SNOWIEST
-4.2 -4.4 -4.3 +1.23 +32.1

RECORDS
——-
12/09…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.74…PREVIOUSLY 1.55 IN 1978.
12/24…RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE…64…PREVIOUSLY 60 IN 1990.
12/25…TIED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE…63…ALSO SET IN 1964.
01/26…TIED RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…3.1…ALSO SET IN 1987.
01/27…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…16.0…PREVIOUSLY 6.7 IN 2011.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…7.9…PREVIOUSLY 6.5 IN 1934.
02/21…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-5…PREVIOUSLY -3 IN 1950.
02/24…TIED RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-3…ALSO SET IN 1907.
FEB…RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL…31.8…PREVIOUSLY 30.9 IN 1962.
ALL-TIME…2ND MONTHLY SNOWFALL…31.8…RECORD IS 37.4 – JAN 2005.
ALL-TIME…2ND COLDEST MONTHLY AVG…18.4…RECORD IS 17.4 – FEB 1934.

________________________________________________________________

WORCESTER

…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1892 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-

DEC: 37.9 27.3 32.6 4.90 1.5 9TH LEAST SNOWIEST
+1.6 +4.7 +3.2 +1.08 -12.9

JAN: 28.4 13.5 21.0 5.03 46.5 4TH SNOWIEST
-2.9 -3.3 -3.1 +1.54 +29.4

FEB: 23.3 5.1 14.2 3.28 53.4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
-11.3 -14.3 -12.8 +0.05 +37.8 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST

SEASONAL SUMMARY
—————-

WINTER: 29.9 15.3 22.6 13.21 101.4 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST
-4.1 -4.3 -4.2 +2.67 +54.3

RECORDS
——-
01/18…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.30…PREVIOUSLY 1.21 IN 2006.
01/27…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…31.9…PREVIOUSLY 11.0 IN 2011.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…17.4…PREVIOUSLY 8.4 IN 1974.
FEB…RECORD COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…14.2…PREV 14.4 IN 1934.
FEB…RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL…53.4…PREV 45.2 IN 1996/1962.
WINTER…RECORD SEASONAL SNOWFALL…101.4…PREV 86.7 IN 2004-2005.
ALL-TIME…COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…14.2…PREV 14.4 IN FEB 1934.
ALL-TIME…MONTHLY SNOWFALL…53.4…PREV 50.9 IN JANUARY 2005.

_____________________________________________________________________________

The Week Ahead

SUMMARY…
The first full week of March will feature below normal temperatures and some unsettled weather, including a legitimate shot at Boston breaking its all time record for snowfall in a single season. That little detail remains to be seen but will largely be determined by how much snow falls there tonight and with the next shot of precipitation on Tuesday night. This is how I think it plays out: Low pressure tracks just south of New England tonight and exits the region early Monday. It brings a swath of accumulating snow to southern New England. Moisture is greatest along and south of the Mass Pike where the highest totals are expected to be. To the north, a little less precipitation also fighting drier air may limit snowfall. Another place where amounts may be limited would be Nantucket as it would be mild enough there for some mixing with sleet and rain. I will place expected accumulations in the forecast below and will adjust by edit and through comment messages if needed. As this system moves away Monday it will be replaced by drier weather with a gusty cold wind. Tuesday will dawn bright but end grey as another storm approaches. The track of this one is likely to take the low pressure center northwest of New England, but cold air will be tough to dislodge over the deep snow cover in place so it will be a snow to ice situation inland and snow to rain along the coast and especially toward the South Coast. What may happen is that the majority of the moisture may have come through while it was still cold enough to snow in many areas, so that by the time the ice/rain gets involved precipitation may be limited. This would be good as it would limit icing issues and limit the amount of water weight added to the snow cover. Most areas should warm enough for an end as liquid rain showers during Wednesday morning. This brief shot of “mild” air early Wednesday will be quickly replaced by colder air for later in the week, though not as cold as some recent cold shots. It may also be somewhat unsettled as there will be a broad trough in the upper levels across the Northeast, and some systems will be moving along the jet stream during the Thursday through Sunday period. We may even have to watch the recently-departed system from midweek through Thursday and Friday in case some of this moisture ripples back to the north and catches southern New England with some additional precipitation.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy with snow, except a possibly mix with sleet/rain Nantucket. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches southern NH and northern two thirds of MA as well as the outer part of Cape Cod and on Martha’s Vineyard, 1-2 inches on Nantucket, and 3-6 inches in the southern third of MA and the state of RI. Temperatures steady in the 20s except 30-35 immediate South Coast and Islands. Wind variable under 15 MPH.
MONDAY: Early clouds, then sunshine with passing clouds. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 10 inland, 15 coast except near 20 Cape Cod. W breeze.
TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Snow arrives evening, may turn to ice some areas and rain South Coast at night. Highs around 30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Temperatures steady 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow especially Cape Cod. Lows 25-30. Highs 35-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-30. Highs 35-40.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 15-20. Highs 35-40.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-25. Highs 30-35.

______________________________________________________________________________________

The Spring Ahead

Hey, it’s almost time to “spring ahead”, that is, change the clocks forward an hour to Daylight Savings Time. Takes place next weekend (2AM Sunday). But that’s not what this section is about. It’s a quick outlook for Meteorological Spring. Here goes.

March: Slow transition out of the February pattern taking place now, and as previously mentioned, the deep snowcover will refrigerate the region and modify air masses. A look ahead beyond the 7-day forecast period above indicates that below normal temperatures will last through mid month, though not to the levels of departure we saw in February. There still may be a couple quick shots of air from the Arctic, but with a pattern that will trend drier, more days of sun will allow for a gradual melt of the big snowcover. If we can get this to happen in the absence of big rain events, it will minimize flooding and other concerns. Late March is likely to be a little wetter, but more toward the average, with temperatures near to below normal.

April: Some evidence for a ridge wanting to become established in the Caribbean and Southeast, with a mean trough shifting back to the Western States. Though this may place New England in the jet stream and prone to passing systems, we should see a temperature moderation, not only seasonally but also pattern-driven. This, and the alternating fair weather and passing systems pattern should result in fairly close to normal precipitation and slightly below normal temperatures as it takes the ground a while to warm after drying out post snow cover.

May: The pattern of April will continue to slowly build. There will likely be a few instances, however, where we see some cut off lows messing up the weather for a few days, i.e. cool and damp while areas not far away are bright and warm. Not really atypical. Coastal areas may also be on the cool side quite often during the Spring as water temperatures will start the season below normal and will take some time to warm. Overall temperatures for May should average near normal coastal areas, near to above normal inland, with precipitation below normal for the region.

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Weekend Update

8:16PM

SUMMARY…
High pressure overhead with clear sky, calm wind, and deep snowcover tonight – perfect radiational cooling. There will be some low temperatures well below zero, but most areas will be above, just very cold. This low launching pad for Sunday means it struggles back to the 20s as clouds increase ahead of the next storm system, which will occur Sunday night in the form of snow for all areas except for the possibility of some mixed precipitation over the outer part of Cape Cod and over the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. It looks like this system will drop a general 3 to 6 inches of snow across most areas, but there may be a little less than 3 inches in portions of north central MA and southern NH due to less overall precipitation, and less than 3 inches in areas where mixing occurs. There may also be a few areas that receive over 6 inches not far inland from the South Coast in south central RI and southeastern MA. Once this system exits early Monday, that day will turn out breezy, chilly, and drier with sun returning. Another cold night Monday night as high pressure moves overhead, but not as cold as tonight. Tuesday, sun will be followed by clouds as the next storm system approaches, but this one is destined to take a track northwest of New England, putting this region on the “mild” side. Remember that a deep snowcover in place will make it difficult for many areas to warm up, so freezing rain will be a possibility for some areas, along with rain where it warms sufficiently, after all areas start as snow. It is entirely possible that Boston breaks its all-time seasonal snowfall record of 107.6 inches set in 1995-1996 after the next 2 storms. After the midweek storm the confidence is a little lower late in the week as there will be some lingering moisture to the southeast and a few more disturbances in the northern jet stream, so timing and possible interaction are difficult to determine this far in advance. Will make an attempt to do this with a little more confidence on the next update.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from -15 interior valleys to +10 Cape Cod. Wind calm.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 20s. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow. See above for accumulations. Temperatures steady in the 20s but may rise to 30-35 Outer Cape Cod and Islands. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH shifting to N then NE overnight.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 35-40. Wind W 15-25 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Snow to mix at night. Lows 15-20. Highs 30-35.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy morning with rain but possible ice inland. Mostly cloudy afternoon with rain showers. Lows 30-35. Highs 35-40 late day inland, 40s coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or mix Cape Cod. Lows 30-35. Highs 35-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-30. Highs 30-35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 20-25. Highs 35-40.

Posted in Weather | 202 Comments

Quiet February Finish

3:30AM

SUMMARY…
High pressure builds in today and Saturday and brings fair and cold weather to southeastern New England. This high will slip offshore by Sunday and a cold front will approach then pass through the region at night, with a wave of low pressure developing along it. This will bring a period of snow Sunday night and early Monday with some accumulation. High pressure returns later Monday into Tuesday with dry weather, but as things move along rather swiftly, the next system will arrive Tuesday night as snow and may become a mix or rain, depending on its track, before winding down later Wednesday. Dry weather is expected to return by Thursday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -10 to 10, coldest interior valleys. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 15. High 35.
MONDAY: Early snow followed by clearing. Low 25. High 35.
TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Snow to mix at night. Low 15. High 35.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Morning rain/mix. Afternoon rain showers. Low 35. High 40.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 35.

Posted in Weather | 307 Comments

From No Threat To Snow Threat

5:36PM

SUMMARY…
Before you panic, it’s not a big threat. But it should come as no surprise that a storm that looked as if it would pass harmlessly out to sea is going to be close enough to spread some snow into parts of southeastern New England. This will happen Thursday, but it’s not going to be all that much, and will not be a long-lasting event either. It will be a low pressure area passing southeast of the region that causes this. The storm’s moisture shield and some added ocean enhancement will combine to bring a light snowfall from about Boston to Cape Cod. See below for accumulations. This event is history by late Thursday night and high pressure builds in for Friday and Saturday with fair but cold weather. This is how February will end. March arrives Sunday and it will be a month that will at least start out with a colder than average and somewhat stormy weather pattern. Not looking for a repeat of the sledge hammer snow barrage of February, but there will be some threats of snow, getting Boston very close to if not into record territory for seasonal snowfall. The first system will arrive Sunday night into Monday. The system behind that one is due by Wednesday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 10-15, some colder spots interior valleys. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow mainly from the I-95 belt southeastward with a coating to 1 inch accumulation except 1 to 3 inches from Plymouth County MA through Cape Cod. Highs 20-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Slow clearing. Lows 0-5 inland valleys, 5-10 elsewhere except 10-15 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 25.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 10. High 30.
MONDAY: Cloudy with snow early, then clearing. Low 20. High 30.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow or mix possible. Low 20. High 40.

Posted in Weather | 261 Comments

Quick Update Again

7:21AM

SUMMARY…
Eastern and southeastern areas were clipped by snow overnight. A sharp cut-off on the western edge left most areas west of I-95 out of the snow except some areas to the south. It’s all out to sea now and today will be a less cold day than yesterday along with dry weather but a gusty breeze. An offshore storm will toss some of its clouds over the region Thursday and also turn the wind a bit more to the northeast near the shore where a few snow showers may occur, especially Cape Cod. High pressure builds in Friday and Saturday with fair but cold weather. As March begins, so will a train of potential storm systems, the first late Sunday and early Monday with some kind of combination of precipitation. The next one may approach by late Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 10-15 inland, 15-20 coast. Wind light NW.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers possible Cape Cod. Highs in the 20s. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM snow or mix. Low 20. High 35.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM mix. Low 30. High 40.
TUESDAY: Sun to clouds. Night mix. Low 25. High 35.

Posted in Weather | 134 Comments

Quick Update

7:26AM

SUMMARY…
Arctic high pressure today. Low pressure offshore passes close enough for some snow tonight but exits Wednesday. More cold air but dry weather the last few days of February. March begins slightly milder but turns unsettled..

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow of 1-3 inches except 3-5 inches immediate coast and Cape Cod overnight. Lows 10-15. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lingering snow showers Cape Cod. Highs in the 20s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 10. Highs around 25.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows around 15. Highs around 30.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows around 20. Highs around 40.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain showers. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.

Posted in Weather | 157 Comments

The Week Ahead

8:20PM

COMMENTARY…
Not too often a day in the upper 30s to lower 40s following snow and rain would be considered a “really nice day” but many probably thought that of Sunday, the first day that Boston was above freezing most of the day in a very long while. The day allowed for being outside without being bundled in layers. The shoveling of snow was more of the clean up and catch up variety versus just trying to stay ahead of a storm during near-blizzard conditions. Granted, there are many people with ice dam problems but at least today afforded the opportunity for some people to work on clearing those, or at least lessening their impact. We have quite a way to go still to finish recovering from the 4-week barrage that we’ve been enduring, but Sunday, though maybe not a “day of rest”, was a nice break.

SUMMARY…
The mild air’s brief visit will end in the early hours of Monday as an Arctic cold front sweeps through the region from west to east. Though the front may be accompanied by a few isolated snow showers, the main impact will be tumbling temperatures during Monday and Monday night. The deep freeze will last through Tuesday as well. A clipper low pressure system will dive southeastward out of Canada, across the Great Lakes, and then move eastward through New England by early Wednesday. Developing low pressure offshore should stay just too far east to impact the region, other than perhaps clipping Cape Cod with some snow/mix. Elsewhere, just a few snow showers are expected early Wednesday. This will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold for the last 3 days of February, though the magnitude of the cold will not be as great as what will be experienced early this week. A look ahead to the first day of March next Sunday shows clouds rolling in and moderating temperatures ahead of the next weather system. The pattern remains active but will be a little less volatile.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 20-25 morning then falling through 10s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0 at times during the afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -10 inland valleys, -10 to -5 other inland areas, -5 to 0 coastal locations and urban centers except 0-5 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, but not as strong in valley locations. Wind chill often well below 0.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy AM with a chance of snow showers all areas and possibly a period of steady snow/mix Cape Cod. Partly cloudy PM. Low 20. High 35.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 25.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 30.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

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