BLOG TEST THEME #6: Twenty-Nineteen
This is the 6th of 8 layouts in the test run. You know the drill. Let me know what you think!
DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)
Update and adjustment time. Not too many big adjustments to the forecast as we begin the weekend. Today, a cold front will cross the region, cutting into the humid air and causing some showers and thunderstorms to pop up. Where some of the shorter range guidance had one rather thin line of showers/storms on yesterday’s runs, they have adjusted to a more scattered line-segment set-up on recent runs. Either way, the region runs risk of 1 or 2 showers and/or thunderstorms in any given location with timing being mainly noon to 6PM favoring the northwestern half of the region (southwestern NH through central MA to near the I-95 belt) during the first three hours and areas to the southeast during the remainder of the afternoon. By this evening, it will all settle down and we’ll already be seeing drier air flowing into the region behind the cold front. This sets up a beautiful Sunday, night? Not so fast. For a couple days now I’ve been eyeing the possibility that Sunday will at least feature cloudiness and possibly some shower activity. Both look to be the case, but it won’t be a wash-out, not nearly so. A low pressure area will develop offshore on the front that has gone by, high pressure will be centered in eastern Canada, and there will be cold air aloft. This combination will produce lots of clouds and some pop up shower activity with the greatest shower risk being during the afternoon hours of Sunday over southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Drier air will win out eventually and both Monday & Tuesday look like much sunnier days but with temperatures still slightly below average. By Wednesday, we will see a warm up as we’ll have seen high pressure shift its way southeastward and we’ll be into a west to southwest air flow at that time. Sometimes these warm-ups are met with more cloud cover, other times not really, so I am playing it down the middle for now.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring areas I-95 belt northwestward first half of afternoon, then areas to the southeast mid through late afternoon. Humid, then drying out late-day. Highs 80-87, cooler Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, mainly afternoon favoring the I-95 belt. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)
Advancing warmer air and higher humidity means more cloudiness but limited rain chances June 11, then a better chance of showers and possible thunderstorms as a frontal system approaches and passes through during June 12-13. It still looks like the main moisture from whatever is left of T.S. Cristobal (expected to move from the Gulf of Mexico into the central US) moves into Canada and misses this area, which is in need of significant rain. Dry weather is expected with lower humidity by June 14 and quick-moving systems may send cloudiness and warmer air back into the region by the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)
High pressure dominant in eastern Canada and weak systems in the US indicates a drier and slightly cooler than average pattern for our region for mid June. Some guidance indicates a little more grim a picture, with a broad low pressure area evolving to turn the region wetter. While I do think that general pattern is possible, the wetter weather would likely evolve further south, keeping this area on the drier side.