1 Hot One

10:22PM

Hot days have been hard to come by in Summer 2014, but Wednesday will be one for much of the southeastern New England region. It won’t be middle 90s hot, but more like around 90 hot, which is about the limit it seems this season. This will be accomplished with high pressure overhead and to the south in the upper levels, and to the south at the surface, also with a cold front approaching from the northwest, increasing the southwesterly air flow over the region. This front, working with moderate humidity, may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening but I do not expect them to be widespread. Favored areas for development is interior NH and MA and down to parts of RI as well. But even though the front will not be overly productive, it will send a push of cooler and less humid air in for Thursday. At about the same time, Hurricane Cristobal will be passing several hundred miles southeast of New England. The only thing we will hear from that is some increased ocean swells Friday into the holiday weekend. During this time, high pressure ridging will try to rebuild over the East Coast while another front approaches from the west northwest. It does not look like this front will have too much push to it, but should get into the region during the second half of the weekend (later Sunday and Monday). This will bring an increased chance for showers and some thunderstorms, especially by Monday. This may also linger into Tuesday as the front hangs around along with more humidity again. Though it will warm back up over the weekend proper (Saturday-Sunday), do not expect too much heat. It should cool back slightly Monday-Tuesday.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S to SW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Mostly cloudy evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms afternoon/evening mainly interior NH/MA to RI. Humid. Highs upper 70s South Coast/Cape Cod, 80s to around 90 elsewhere. SW breeze.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Less humid. Lows around 60. Wind light W.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 81.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 83.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 77.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 80.

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Late Summertime

10:45PM

Finally a warm stretch this month. The warmest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure as at its most extensive over southeastern New England. A surface cold front will traverse the region from northwest to southeast Wednesday night, but probably lacking any shower and thunderstorm activity (slight chance).  This timing is a little faster than the early Thursday I expected before. This means that Thursday’s weather will be a little less warm and humid than the next 2 days will be. But by late week some of that warmth and humidity will try to return as high pressure again is south and southeast of the region. The next front approaches when we get to Labor Day Weekend and its timing is uncertain. But at this point I believe its will make a run through the area early Sunday, stalling to the south of the region, and allowing a wave of low pressure to approach with a risk of rain for the holiday itself on Monday, which is also the first day of September.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will track north then turn northeast, passing northwest of Bermuda as a minimal hurricane by early Wednesday, before accelerating into the waters southeast to east of the Canadian Maritime Provinces late in the week. Cristobal will have no direct impact on the US East Coast, other than some increased ocean swells late this week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy valley fog. More humid. Lows 60-66. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Humid. Highs 77-83 South Coast, 84-90 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 64-70. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm late afternoon and evening, mainly interior MA and northern RI. Humid. Highs 78-84 South Coast, 85-91 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 86.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. AM shower risk. Low 66. High 82.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain. Low 62. High 78.

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The Week Ahead

3:41PM

A week of Summer weather is ahead as we have now seen the pattern shift into a mode that allows an upper level high pressure ridge to build over the eastern US and surface high pressure to sit south of New England. Cristobal, a tropical storm, will organize itself east of the Bahamas through Tuesday then likely strengthen to a hurricane as it moves north then turns northeast between the US East Coast and Bermuda Wednesday through Friday, finally racing toward the North Atlantic waters next weekend. This system, other than tossing some larger ocean swells toward shore mid to late week, will not bother the East Coast. For southern New England, the only real weather systems of any consequence, and that will be minimal, will be a pair of cold fronts that move through early Thursday and again sometime over the early portion of the Labor Day Weekend. Neither of these look like they will produce much more than cloudiness and a few showers.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50-55 inland 55-60 coast. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind light SE.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog in low elevations. Lows 55-60 inland valleys, 60-65 elsewhere. Wind light S.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind light S to SW.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Low 66. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 81, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Low 64. High 83, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 84, cooler coast.

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Pattern Shift

12:37PM

A reconfiguration of the upper level pattern will have a direct impact on the weather here in southern New England starting almost immediately. We have 2 more cooler than normal days for the weekend as the onshore flow continues, but dies off during Sunday as high pressure sinks over the region. This high pressure area will take up residence south of the region next week and as upper level high pressure that has been over Greenland weakens, moves away, and is replaced by upper level low pressure there, this will allow more high pressure ridging in upper levels in the eastern US. This will not be a powerfully strong high, but it will push the jet stream to the north and allow warmer weather. Troughs from the west coming along the jet stream will be weaker and won’t dig into the Northeast as they had been. Also, a tropical system will likely remain offshore of the East Coast as it recurves later in the week. This will also serve to weaken an approaching system from the west so that a hardly noticeable front comes through sometime late in the week, cutting the warm up back briefly before it likely returns again beyond the forecast period… This is a new regime, and it may last a while.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Sun mixed with clouds off the ocean. Highs 66-71 coast, 72-77 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind light NE.

SUNDAY: More sunshine, fewer ocean clouds. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Diminishing NE breeze.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 81.

TUESDAY:  Sunny. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 64. High 86.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 82.

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Damp to Dry

7:20AM

Easterly flow off the Atlantic and a disturbance from the west have combined to make it damp and grey in southeastern New England, but the theme for the next 3 days will be a very slow drying then clearing trend. You won’t notice it much at first as there will be an overcast and scattered showers around through midday today before showers diminish and eventually become isolated to non-existent. A few patches of drizzle and fog are also possible in coastal areas. Clouds hang on tonight but during tomorrow a clearing trend will begin from the northeast as drier air slides down thanks to high pressure which starts a southward sinking. There will still be some areas of low clouds off the ocean at times especially in coastal areas from Boston south Saturday to early Sunday but these will be diminishing and should vanish by later Sunday morning, leaving the region sunny by the end of the weekend. It still remain cooler than normal through the weekend, however.

The first half of next week, however, will be a different story as high pressure is finally located to the south for a change, and warm air comes in.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers, diminishing with time. Patchy coastal drizzle/fog. Highs 65-72. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 77.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 86.

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Quick Update

7:23AM

High pressure centered to the north continues to try to hold off disturbances to the south and west. The one from the west will toss some cloudiness into the area today and Friday as areas of lower clouds also come in from the ocean due to an east to northeast wind. This will keep it on the cool side. High pressure sinks slowly southward during the weekend with less cloudiness eventually, but still on the cool side temperature-wise. By early next week, it will start to feel more like typical late Summer as high pressure sinks even further and ends up centered south of the region for a change.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog this morning underneath lots of middle and higher clouds above, which will persist through the day and limit sun. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s coast to inland. Wind light E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-60. Wind light N.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs middle 60s to lower 70s coast to inland. Wind light E to NE.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 58. High 70.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 57. High 72.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 77.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

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High Suppressor

4:05PM

High pressure centered over to north of the southern New England region will keep a series of weak lows  suppressed far enough to the south to not bring any wet weather  to the area, other than perhaps the South Coast and Cape Cod for a brief time around the weekend. The evolution of the pattern will eventually send an upper level low pressure area south to east of the region by Sunday-Monday before it wanders away after that and a high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Northeast. This may allow some Summer warmth to finally invade the region, but you’ll need patience to get there, with a cooler trend for the next several days first.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Clear but patchy coastal and valley fog. Lows 45-50 sheltered valleys, 50s elsewhere. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s, coolest coast. Wind light E to SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy coastal and valley fog. Lows from around 50 interior valleys to around 60 coast and urban areas.  Wind light SE to E.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 70s, coolest again coast. Wind light SE to E.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 70.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 70.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 54. High 72.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 75.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 85.

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The Week Ahead (Belated Edition, Again)

4:10PM

Well for the second week in a row I’m late on this one, but right now I’m feeling rather optimistic about the weather so let’s just say this week will be governed by high pressure mainly north of the region while low pressure stays too far south to give the area any wet weather, but may be close enough for some cloudiness later in the week. I’ll watch it…

One thing is for sure: No heat this week either.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s, near 60 urban areas. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s, near 80 some inland areas. Wind light SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 70s, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

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Weekend Update (Part 2)

11:09AM

Sunday morning! A cold front is coming through without much fanfare, just variable cloudiness and a few sprinkles if they even reached the ground. The front will take several more hours to settle through southeastern MA and RI so there may be a few pop up showers and thunderstorms in these areas this afternoon. To the north, other than some cloudiness at times, I’m not expecting that much. We’ll watch for a quick shower to pop up here as well but I don’t really think it’s going to happen. By tonight, a fresh supply of cool and dry air will be settling into all areas from the north.

Monday looks great with sunshine and a few clouds as high pressure builds over the region and a weak secondary front tries to push down from the north. This high pressure area should hold for Tuesday which also looks great.

The period from Wednesday through Saturday is tougher, not only because it’s further out in time but because we’ll be trying to figure out what happens with a string of low pressure areas to the southwest and south of New England while high pressure tries to rebuild north of the region. So for now, this is a low confidence forecast and leaning on the pessimistic side (sorry!).

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly southeastern MA and RI. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows in the 50s to around 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s to near 80. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 76.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle especially south. Low 58. High 72.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle especially south and east. Low 57. High 66.

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Weekend Update

8:53AM

They say the averages are made from the extremes, and this is true, but once in a while a season is “average” because there are not really any extremes, and this is such a Summer. Temperatures continue to run fairly close to normal for the season as a whole, but without heat waves and without really any heat at all – heat referring to days near or above 90. But we have not had all that many days that have sat far below the normal either. And nighttime temperatures have often been around the normals as well. Rainfall, though variable in spots, typical for Summer, is not all that far from normal in most locations. There has been some newsworthy events, of course (Revere tornado, flash flooding in heavy rain events, etc.), but this is not unusual either. These events are not rare in a general sense, though in a specific sense, some are (such as an EF-2 tornado basically on the coast).

The pattern we have been in this Summer, keeping heat at bay, is going to continue for another week or so before signs of change appear. This pattern has been driven by the tendency for a high pressure ridge over Greenland, allowing regular dips in the jet stream over eastern Canada and the northeastern USA, enough to keep any prolonged heat out of the Northeast. This pattern goes on for a while longer, with one trough over the region now, and an associated disturbance passing through the region on Sunday with a threat of showers. A low pressure area coming out of the Ohio Valley by Monday will pass south of New England later Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more cloudiness to the region, and perhaps some wet weather to the South Coast / Cape Cod, but odds favor this staying just offshore at this time. And later in the week this low will depart and with high pressure to the north yet another low to the south may need to be watched.

A large scale pattern change may lurk not far behind this, as it appears that the high pressure ridge will break down in Greenland and be replaced by an upper level low pressure system. It is ironic that we may be talking about some heat and humidity as August winds down, September approaches, and school bells begin to ring.

Forecast for southeastern New England….

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers possible interior MA and southwestern NH late. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers morning-midday. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 80.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 60. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Decreasing clouds. Low 58. High 77.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 76.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 75.

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