DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)

And now we reach the half-way point of the month of August and the start of a new week. Today will be a fairly nice day with high pressure hanging on, providing a sun/cloud mix and modest humidity with seasonable warmth. The high gives way to a broad circulation of low pressure which will result in a cooler but more humid onshore air flow for Tuesday and Wednesday. We’ve been over the ups and downs on the guidance and all of that, but leaving out the rollercoaster details, I am going to tell you that my strong leaning now is for a drier forecast with more of a scattering of shower activity from later Tuesday through Wednesday. There is just enough evidence to still leave the door open for a more widespread swath of showers / rain for northeastern MA and southeastern NH on Wednesday, but don’t be surprised if I have to pull back from this on the next update. In short, not a whole lot of drought relief is in store for us despite it looking a little more promising previously. Later in the week, high pressure retakes the region with fair weather returning and a warming trend as well.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Limited sun at times with clouds dominant. A chance of showers, favoring the South Coast. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers likely, but more widespread showers are possible in southeastern NH and adjacent northeastern MA. Areas of fog early. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)

Increasing humidity, but slowly, during the course of the August 20-21 weekend. Mainly dry weather is expected overall, but a shower threat may present itself later in the weekend. A bout of higher humidity and opportunity for a few showers and thunderstorms at times early to middle portion of next week with a general southwesterly air flow dominating.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)

Still looking for a southwesterly to westerly air flow in general with limited rain opportunities and near to above normal temperatures into late August.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-15-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

Will it rain? Will it not rain? If it rains, how much will it rain? Questions without answers. Well we have some answers, but not all of them are complete or confident, but we’ll get to that. First we have a beautiful Sunday to enjoy before our weather pattern takes a turn. Today’s weather is brought to you by Canadian high pressure and brings us lots of sun, a chilly morning compared to recently, but a nice rebound to near normal afternoon highs with low humidity. It’s interesting to note that this morning’s 7:00 a.m. temperatures showcase some of the regional / local differences you can have. Boston, for example, is exhibiting the urban heat island effect with 65 while a typical cool spot, Norwood, sits at 53, just a few degrees above the upper 40s. Meanwhile, out on the islands, ocean water keeps Nantucket modified at 68 while the relatively low elevation air port at Martha’s Vineyard sits at 54. These are the types of things a forecaster has to take into account when they need to get very specific with temperature forecasts, and it’s often easy to forget and have certain areas outside your temperature range, even if the forecast was “generally” good. Anyway, nice day today, and then the change begins Monday, slowly though, as high pressure slides offshore. As a broad area of weak low pressure begins to expand slowly northward along the US East Coast, we’ll first notice some increase in cloud cover, though the humidity rise will be hardly noticeable at first. It’s the Tuesday-Thursday period when we will have our highest humidity and a greater threat of some rain in the region. The model guidance is now all over the place with rainfall amounts – with the 3 models I mentioned yesterday having kind of flip flopped overall, ranging from a tenth of an inch of rain (European model) to a more moderate rainfall event (GFS model’s 06z run after a heavier one on the 00z run), with their colleague the Canadian model getting fancy with a heavier rain event for northeastern MA and southeastern NH while the rest of the region is left out, having just light rain. What does this tell you? It tells you that the guidance is not very helpful for this event just a few days out from it. But since Tuesday is day 3 on a Sunday morning update, and it looks like the main event, whatever that turns out to be, will be Wednesday to early Thursday, I can’t say I’m surprised. To be fair, while not a winter pattern, the set-up of the surface features looks a little like what you see in a colder season storm (just not as strong) so the configuration of that pattern and exact placement of features will be key in determining just how things unfold. So another day must go by before I really try to nail down details, and for now I am going to go with a light to moderate rain event for Wednesday, ending Thursday, and adjustments will be made as necessary.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the South Coast. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely eastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH. Chance of rain elsewhere. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

High pressure brings fair and warmer weather with manageable humidity for August 19 through the August 20-21 weekend based on current timing. Humidity increases along with a shower/thunderstorm chance early the following week as high pressure shifts off the Atlantic Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

Overall trend is for weak westerly to southerly flow with limited rain chances and near to above normal temperatures. Still don’t see a pattern that brings consistent enough rainfall to do a lot of drought reduction.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-14-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

If you are getting up to a blanket of clouds overhead, think of it as the toll booth at the entrance of a very nice weekend, and the toll is a rather cheap one, as we just have a few hours of clouds to deal with over eastern areas from a passing offshore disturbance. Otherwise a magnificent mid August weekend is ours as high pressure becomes dominant and we have low humidity and dry weather. In fact the only negative aspect of this stretch is it allows more building of the drought, but enjoy the nice weather for what it is. Humidity will be making a come back early to mid next week, but this time without the heat. This will take place as the high moves away Monday and a broad but weak area of low pressure to our south tries to head in this direction. With the exception of one really bad GFS run (06z), all reliable guidance now has a fairly minimal impact on our area from this system. If this is correct, it’s not great news, because the possibility of beneficial rain to help the drought diminishes greatly in the scenario being depicted by most guidance, and that is to take the bulk of the rainfall initially out to the south, then turning northward and northwestward too late to help us (though parts of northern New England, especially Maine, would do better). So while our weather becomes more humid and somewhat unsettled later Monday into Wednesday, I’m less optimistic about a helpful rain event.

TODAY: Lots of clouds especially eastern areas into mid morning, exiting from west to east, lastly on Cape Cod, by late morning, with a sun/cloud mix after. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s most areas but still near 60 across Cape Cod before falling into the 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58, coolest interior lower elevations. Dew point near 50. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers near the South Coast by late-day. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

Low pressure trough lets go of the area with maybe a spot shower or thunderstorm otherwise fair and warming up August 18, then high pressure takes over with dry and warmer weather and most likely a return to moderate humidity through the August 20-21 weekend, and maybe a bit more heat and humidity sneaking in by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

High pressure dominates with below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures during the last full week of August.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-13-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)

A frontal boundary went by overnight with Friday’s morning showers occurring before the sun came up, which leaves us with a nice day today – sun/cloud mix, much cooler than recently, and finally much lower humidity. Other than a disturbance bringing some cloudiness later tonight and for part of Saturday morning, we’re setting up for a very nice mid August weekend, courtesy of high pressure – lots of sun, manageable temperatures and low humidity. Enjoy if you can! Early next week, high pressure gives way to a broad but weak trough of low pressure which will increase the cloud cover, humidity, and eventually rainfall chances – although it worries me a bit, regarding potential drought relief, that all of the medium range guidance today already looks less impressive for that rain chance. This will be something to monitor. Will keep Tuesday’s shower chance in the forecast for now.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds until mid morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60+. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)

Less impressed by the guidance regarding the rainfall threat for early in this period, but will keep the shower chance in the forecast for August 17, with a few additional showers and thunderstorms possible for August 18. Dry trend for later in the period. Not looking for the return of hot weather at this time, although somewhat of a warming trend will likely occur.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)

High pressure dominates with below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures during the last full week of August.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-12-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

A disturbance passes southeast of New England today bringing a short-lived rainfall episode to RI and southeastern MA, maybe a brief sprinkle to the northwest of there, then improving weather but limited sun after that. Humidity will still be at moderate levels with a light southerly air flow. Tonight and early Friday, a cold front crosses the region with a shower chance, and this will open the door to cooler and drier air to flow in during Friday. The weekend looks fabulous with high pressure and dry air in place. High pressure shifts offshore and the approach of a low pressure trough Monday means an increase in cloud cover eventually, but still rain-free.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with an episode of rain RI and southeastern MA and a few sprinkles possible further north on the I-95 belt. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to S 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming N.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy early, then mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

Don’t look now but we have a shot of beneficial rain from low pressure drifting up the Eastern Seaboard in the August 16-17 time frame. I’m not going to say lock it in yet but it’s our best shot in a while at widespread rainfall that doesn’t fall all at once then run off. Will monitor and fine-tune. It would come with higher humidity but not hot weather, in fact below normal temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms may occur August 18 with lingering instability before we dry out and warm up later next week, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

Looking at a “summer zonal” flow overall with mostly fair weather, moderate to higher humidity and mostly near normal temperatures, but may end up with a push of cooler/drier air from Canada before the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-11-2022