DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)

Discussion…

A new month has arrived and our same drought continues. The new Drought Monitor report issued this morning should indicate very similar or even slightly worse drought than last week’s. And we will continue to build in this drought as the long term precipitation pattern remains deficient. In the nearer term, i.e., this 5-day forecast segment, we’ll talk about 2 rain chances, but neither look overly impressive to me. First, we have a nice day today to start the month of October, not really due to any big high pressure area, but just a dry westerly air flow. There may be a few patchy clouds forming during the day and evening, but this may serve to make the sky a bit more decorative for the rise of the first of two full moons this month, tonight’s Full Harvest Moon (cue Neil Young!). Things change on Friday when clouds return more substantially with the approach of a low pressure disturbance. But it looks like the main ribbon of rainfall associated with this is going to travel across NY and western New England, and as a trough pulls eastward later in the day into the evening it will just send showers through the WHW forecast area, so I’m not looking for any beneficial rain from this. This sets up a dry weekend as high pressure builds in from the west, so that will continue to aid in building the drought and keeping fire danger elevated, although it will provide nice weather for outdoor activities (yard work, farm visits, etc.). Monday is expected to be an unsettled day and the second rain chance in this 5-day period. There is a considerable spread in what this system is forecast to look like even just between 2 major models (European & US models), with the Euro (ECMWF) touting a wind and rain event of some significance while the US model (GFS) showing a much weaker, more progressive system comprised of 2 pieces of energy that never really completely come together. You already know which solution I favor by what I said above about our rain chances over the next 5 days. 🙂

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly cloudy. A few afternoon showers. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower early evening. Clearing but patchy low elevation fog overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Dry October 6 and a rain shower risk with an approaching cold front later October 7 (possibly hold off until night). A cool start October 6 then a warm-up through October 7. Fair and cooler weather October 8-9 as Canadian high pressure moves in. Clouds may return at the end of the period as it starts to warm up again but any rain chance will likely be limited.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Overall pattern features a west to east (zonal) flow in the atmosphere but some northward displacement to the jet stream allowing warmer than normal weather for most of this period.

C-19 Chat Post – October 1 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Discussion…

A cold front is moving across the region this morning. Ahead of it are numerous showers, some of them heavy, and rather gusty southerly winds. The wind is a bigger story than the rain for many, as some scattered power outages have been occurring. But this is a short-lived event, and while the wind is certainly impressive, the rainfall amounts will be rather modest, and not putting much of a scratch in the still-worsening drought, especially since, despite 2 more rain chances that I can see in the days ahead, the long-term pattern remains dry. What about the next rain chance? Hold on, don’t you want to know about the clearing this afternoon and the nice day tomorrow? There, now you know. Another wave of low pressure brings a rain chance on Friday, but it doesn’t look overly impressive to me. Nevertheless, I think most areas will get wet for a while before high pressure moves in for a dry and seasonable first weekend of October.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy start with numerous showers, some heavy, and a slight risk of thunder, then breaking clouds but still a chance of passing showers into late morning, followed by mostly sunny with just passing clouds midday and afternoon. Highs 70-77. Dew point starting in 60s then falling to 50s. Wind S 15-25 MPH, but with gusts 35-50 MPH and even higher than that in some open coastal areas and higher elevations early, shifting to W and diminishing slightly to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-40 MPH by late morning then gradually decreasing further during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers, favoring the afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain evening. Clearing but patchy fog overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 59-66. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

A wave of low pressure brings a risk of some rain October 5 and a cold front may bring a shower risk about October 7, otherwise it’s mostly dry weather with a more zonal flow pattern. Temperatures variable, with the sharpest contrast possibly coming in the form of a warm spike October 7 then chill-down at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Minor shower risk early in the period otherwise mostly dry weather with a west-to-east (zonal) flow overall. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – September 30 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Discussion…

Things are on track, forecast-wise, it seems. We’re in the middle of a 3-day unsettled and humid stretch, and while we did not see a whole lot of shower activity yesterday, and won’t again today, I cannot rule out passing showers at times in a few areas later today. But our main window of opportunities for the most widespread and significant showers will be from about midnight tonight to noon Wednesday, as a wave of low pressure pulls a cold front eastward trough the region. From tonight through Wednesday morning we’ll also have a period of moderate to strong wind gusts which could result in local tree damage with some isolated power outages. While we remain on the eastern side of an upper level trough through the end of this week we will remain vulnerable to additional unsettled weather, and my target date of October 2 for the next round of unsettled weather remains a go, with a chance of some rainfall on Friday, mainly during the afternoon based on current timing. This should be long gone so that the start of the weekend will feature dry weather. The first 3 days of October (Thursday-Saturday) will also feature a cooling trend as the mild and muggy air we have now will be replaced with a Canadian airmass arriving indirectly via the Great Lakes and Midwest.

Details…

TODAY: Low clouds break for sun into midday then more clouds at times during the afternoon with a risk of a passing shower, but mainly rain-free. Highs 73-80. Dew point above 60. Wind increasing to S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog evening. Isolated showers evening. Numerous showers overnight, including a slight risk of thunderstorms. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms morning, maybe lingering to early afternoon eastern coastal areas. Clearing follows and the day ends sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point starts above 60 but falls to the 50s by day’s end. Wind S 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-45 MPH morning. SW 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers, favoring the afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain evening. Clearing but patchy fog overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 59-66. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)

A wave of low pressure may bring some additional unsettled weather with a rain or shower chance later October 4 to early October 5. A cold front from passing low pressure to the north brings a shower risk October 7. Temperatures variable, but a sharper cool shot is possible by October 8.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

A shot of cooler air to start this period followed by a warming trend again. Generally dry weather with just minor shower risk around October 10-11.

C-19 Chat Post – September 29 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Discussion…

High humidity and above normal temperatures through Wednesday. However, the 2 days that feel most like late summer instead of early fall will be today and Tuesday, as there will be a threat of showers but much of the time will be rain free and there will also be intervals of sunshine with all the cloudiness we have. It’s Tuesday night into Wednesday when a more solid shower threat occurs with the approach and passage of a cold front. The clouds, showers, and frontal passage will keep temperatures down a little on Wednesday over what they will be during the next two days. Many model forecasts have been bringing an additional wave of low pressure with significant rain up through the region Wednesday night into early Thursday, but I am somewhat skeptical of this. I think a wave of low pressure will occur, but as we go along I’m thinking this may be less potent and further offshore, and the details forecast will reflect that. Models have a lot of trouble sorting out disturbances and timing during transitions, and I think we will see a disturbance move through the region Friday with a chance of additional showers, although with cooler air instead of the warm and muggy weather we have for the start of this week.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few passing showers. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely and areas of fog. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Areas of fog evening. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60s falling to 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Highs 60-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Watch for a wave of low pressure that may bring some wet weather to the region at some point October 4-5, otherwise mostly dry weather is expected until the end of the period when an approaching disturbance or front brings the next risk of showers. Temperatures variable, coolest early in the period then milder late period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A shot of cooler air to start this period followed by a warming trend again. Generally dry weather with just minor shower risk around mid period.

C-19 Chat Post – September 28 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Discussion…

No big changes in this outlook, just a series of expected forecast tweaks. Cloudiness will be more dominant today as a humid southerly air flow becomes more established. This still occurs without any rainfall today, but that changes as we get into the first 3 days of the new week which are also the final 3 days of September, and the shower threat appears in the pre-dawn hours of Monday and continues off and on through Wednesday. Tuesday night through Wednesday still appears to be the most likely time period for the most widespread shower activity. Any rainfall we get will be helpful for our drought situation, which still won’t be breaking any time soon. Immediate help will come for quelling our currently high fire danger. A final wave of low pressure that moves through Wednesday evening, based on current timing, should pull a cold front through the region and open the door for a cooler air mass, indirectly from Canada, via the Great Lakes and Midwest, as October arrives on Thursday.

Details…

TODAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers after midnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Occasional showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely and areas of fog. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60s falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 65-72. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

With a trough axis still to the west of our region, we can expect a couple opportunities for unsettled weather. Continuing to lean toward October 2 & 4 as the most likely wetter days. Temperatures variable, trending cooler. For those unfamiliar, a trough of low pressure is basically a dip in the jet stream and where your unsettled weather usually occurs and the axis of it is basically its mid point. The unsettled weather will often be more likely to the east of the axis. So the set-up described above leaves us vulnerable to additional wet weather, which would be welcomed if it occurs.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Generally zonal (west to east) flow is expected with overall drier weather, but a couple minor unsettled weather threats. Cooler air probably dominates the first part of the period followed by a warming trend.

C-19 Chat Post – September 27 2020