The tweak in this update will be to try to detail snow accumulations a little more. A few of the things that may impact accumulation…
(This is a repost of a comment I made on the previous blog entry.)
1) Tremendous push of dry air that is going to try to eat away the northern edge of the storm for an extra hour or two (though it will be overcome).
2) Very rapid deepening may actually pull the core of the heaviest precipitation a little closer to the storm center.
3) Don’t think it snows as long as Euro and a few other models have.
4) Banding means lighter zones between the intense bands.
These are all minor by themselves but combine to prevent some of the biggest totals. Again, there will be spots that do indeed get a bigger total.
There is a chance the low center actually ends up a shade further east, believe it or not because the low that went by here on Saturday weakened faster than projected by computer guidance. The result is a flow that is displaced slightly east and a trough that tilts ever so slightly less toward the negative. May only be a 25 mile difference in storm track, but it will have an impact. These are just some of the little details I try to work out after the opening broadbrush.
We will still have enhancement of snowfall near the east-facing and north-facing shores of NH and MA, as well as an area along the eastern slopes of the hills from near Worcester MA southward. These are the areas most likely to have pockets above the otherwise general 18-25 inch snowfall total in much of the region. Amounts will drop off to below 18 inches and then possibly very rapidly down to very little at all as head further northwestward into west central NH across to northwestern MA. Still expecting the drop off from under 18 inches western portions of Cape Cod to under 10 inches eastern portions of Cape Cod and the Islands due to mixing with rain.
Coastal flooding, generally moderate but pockets of major flooding and beach erosion around high tide times, especially east and north facing shorelines.
Power outages are possible, but are most likely in areas with wetter snow and strongest wind, which will be across Cape Cod.
Improving Wednesday but clouds may linger along with a few snow showers as upper level low pressure hangs around for part of the day. High pressure brings dry and chilly weather Thursday before another storm system arrives from the west Friday. This one will have a vigorous upper level disturbance with it and may bring a decent shot of snow to parts of southeastern New England especially later Friday to early Saturday. Will monitor this. Active pattern continues beyond that along with a shot of Arctic air Saturday night and Sunday followed by a low pressure wave that may bring a chance of snow by late Sunday, ending Monday.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Snow overspreads all areas, becomes heavy at times, especially coastal NH through eastern and southern MA and southward through RI. Blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures steady 15-25, coldest northwest of Boston. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 18 TO 25 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW. LESS THAN 18 INCHES WESTERN PART OF CAPE COD, AND LESS THAN 10 INCHES EASTERN PART OF CAPE COD AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow early then partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow early, then clearing. Low 10. High 20.