Friday Forecast

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)
Low pressure crosses southern New England this morning then heads through Maine and into eastern Canada this afternoon and tonight, and really expands through the Maritimes Saturday, doing that typical early spring kind of thing, pulling cold air out of Canada along with producing plenty of wind. So our wet weather of this morning will be replaced with rain to snow showers tonight and early Saturday, then eventual clearing. This will lead to a much nicer second half of the weekend as high pressure slides southwest of the region and pushes milder air into the region. But this will be very short-lived as a sharp cold front will drop out of Canada and turn Monday into an upside down temperature day along with at least lots of cloudiness and some potential precipitation, and finally a dry and cold day Tuesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog morning as rain, and some higher elevation mix/snow briefly, tapers to isolated rain showers and patchy drizzle. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a risk of a passing rain shower. Highs 40-47. Wind backing from E to N to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Scattered to general snow showers overnight with minor accumulation possible. Lows 30-37. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH then shifting to NW with gusts 30-40 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Clouding over. Risk of a period of rain that may end as snow. Highs 48-55 but a quick temperature drop is possible later. Wind W 10-20 MPH eventually shifting to N.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)
Look for mainly dry weather and a warming trend with temperatures starting the period near to below normal and peaking at much above normal around March 29 or 30 before a cold front knocks them back to near normal at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)
A cooler first few days of April with unsettled weather possible early and again late in the period.

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Thursday Forecast

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)
So now it’s spring. And spring has a reputation around here. Yes, there can be nice days, but there are many not-so-nice days, and sometimes a whole lot of them, depending on the particular weather pattern. I’m not going to speculate about spring beyond the next 5 days right in this space right now, but what I will say is these 5 days will show you a nice sample platter of the variety of both March and spring in New England. It starts with an approaching cold front today but this front will never quite make it here, at least as it is. Since we have now figured out that the low pressure area about to come up the coast is not the one that some of the guidance was originally forecasting to do it, as that is traveling hundreds of miles southeast of the region at this time, but an inverted trough that formed near the Southeast Coast and hung around long enough for some upper level support to come along and ignite it. And while this won’t be a major storm system as it continues to develop and pass over the region tonight and Friday, once it gets beyond our region, it will develop into a pretty strong storm, expanding in coverage, so the slug of rain it brings to us tonight in its formative stages won’t be around long, but once it gets far enough away and we get into the expanding wind field on the back side, we will see colder air, some rain to snow showers, and more importantly some decent wind Friday night through Saturday. The bluster of March will be in full force on Saturday. But how quickly things can turn around, and they will, when that storm pulls far enough away and high pressure slides to the southwest of New England, a milder westerly air flow will arrive and Sunday will be a nice spring day, especially by March standards. But alas, did you think that was going to hang around? Well it may, into at least part of Monday, and that will depend on the speed of another cold front dropping south southeastward out of Canada, which will return much colder air to the region again by late Monday at the latest. Sometimes these fronts end up faster than initial guidance tries to have you believe, so the vague wording below will indicate my uncertainty here. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving south to north, may be heavy for a while. Slight risk of thunder. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts along the coast where minor flooding is possible.
FRIDAY: Overcast with areas of fog morning as rain tapers to isolated rain showers and patchy drizzle. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a risk of a passing rain shower. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Scattered to general snow showers overnight with minor accumulation possible. Lows 30-37. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH then shifting to NW with gusts 30-40 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Clouding over. Risk of a period of rain that may end as snow. Highs 48-55 but a quick temperature drop is possible later. Wind W 10-20 MPH eventually shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)
More of the March and spring variety will be on display, especially in the temperature department. Low pressure should pass south of the region, kept there by a cold Canadian high pressure area to start the period, with temperatures starting out below to much below normal. This will be followed by a warming trend which may see the end of the period much warmer than normal with high pressure along the East Coast and a strong southwesterly air flow. It may be that some areas that are stuck in the 30s on March 26 are above 70 by March 30.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
A transition back to cooler weather to end March and start April, probably with a couple bouts of unsettled weather as well.

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Wednesday Forecast

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)
High pressure dominates and gives a nice March day for the final hours of winter, leading to the Vernal Equinox, or the arrival of spring, at 5:58PM. Today’s V.E. also coincides with the Full Worm Moon, the first time the 2 have done this in 38 years (1981), and the last time it will happen for 19 more (2030). We will eek out another rather decent day Thursday as the evolution of what is upcoming is slower to occur than thought just a couple days ago. I am going to re-post a link posted on the last blog in which the NWS explains the synoptic situation very nicely, as pointed out by one of the readers, who is an impressive young meteorologist himself. But in short, what’s going to happen is a cold front moving in from the west will have a semi-merger with a developing low pressure area down the coast, bringing a slug of rain through the region Thursday night. As the low intensifies and expands while exiting New England via eastern Canada, it will drag colder air in on its back side and create the typical March bluster which will take until Friday night to really set in, and linger through Saturday, which will remind you that we are not that far out of winter, and can still feel its effects into early spring easily. By Sunday, the low will have moved away to lose influence and high pressure passing south of the region will bring a milder westerly air flow. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54 except a bit cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain, possibly briefly heavy. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 10-20 MPH. Minor coastal flooding possible.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows 30-37. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W, moderate and gusty.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind W, light to moderate.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)
A mild start and cold finish March 25 as a cold front drops down from the north and may bring a period of rain which ends as mix/snow. Fair/chilly March 26-27 as high pressure drifts down from Canada keeping additional storminess to the south of the region. Early idea is for continued mainly dry with a milder trend toward the end of this period as high pressure shifts to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
Initial idea at this point as high pressure offshore, low pressure Great Lakes with a mainly dry and mild finish to the month of March. April’s early days may bring brief unsettled weather followed by a shift to colder.

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Tuesday Forecast

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)
Overall no big changes to this forecast with dry and chilly weather today into Wednesday, although the cold start will be replaced by a milder afternoon in winter’s final hours on Wednesday, with the vernal equinox occurring at 5:58PM. Quick changes for the first full day of spring, and a tweak to my forecast to add a little more rain as hang-back low pressure in the form of an inverted trough just off the Southeast Coast will form a low that will move up along or just ahead of an approaching cold front, adding some moisture to it. But the cold air coming on the back side of the system as it intensifies while moving away will be too late to change it fully to snow here. That cold air may result in a few rain to snow showers during Friday, when cloudiness will be the biggest aspect of the day to start, then wind later, which will last right into Saturday as it will be drier, but feeling like winter again. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving. Steadier rain develops afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Becoming windy. Temperatures fall to the 30s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Temperatures steady in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)
Breezy but dry and milder March 24 as high pressure positions itself southwest to south of the region. A cold front drops down from north to south March 25, and the speed of this front will dictate the temperatures, which may start mild then turn colder. Unsettled weather at least in the form of an overcast with potential drizzle or light mix may occur by late March 25 into March 26, but will have to watch a potential wave of low pressure passing south of the region that may be close enough to enhance the precipitation threat. Drier weather to end the period with temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
A drier and milder end to March but the weather may turn colder and unsettled to start April. Low confidence outlook at this time.

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Monday Forecast

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)
A pretty straightforward forecast for the Monday-Friday work week, which half way through sees the arrival of spring, the Vernal Equinox, on Wednesday. And that day may be the most spring-feeling one of the week, as it will feature a milder interlude between a chilly start and end to the period. We start with high pressure keeping a disturbance south of the region today, and high pressure dominating on Tuesday, with a chill in the air. A little milder air sneaks in as high pressure sinks to the south Wednesday, allowing a southwesterly fair flow to arrive. A cold front will cross the region Thursday, and I will have to add the risk of rain showers to the forecast, having previously thought this would be a dry system. Some guidance, which is known to be performing very poorly, is living in a fantasy land in trying to develop a storm system close enough for significant precipitation late this week, but in reality the evolution of that system will be much further offshore, and its intensification will help pull a second cold front into the region Friday, with a colder ending to the week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the lower to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)
March 23-24 weekend looks dry but with a windy chill Saturday transitioning to a breezy but milder Sunday. Watching for a period of unsettled weather in the March 25-27 time frame as it trends cooler to colder with high pressure building across southeastern Canada and low pressure traveling near or south of New England.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
Drier weather returns for much of this period with a slow moderating trend as high pressure gains control of the weather.

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Sunday Forecast

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)
High pressure will control the weather through Wednesday with dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions overall. A cold front will come through the region Thursday with some cloudiness but for now leaving the threat of any precipitation out of the forecast, which details as follows…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting up to 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)
The energy that goes by to the north and brings the cold front through the day before will merge with offshore energy into an ocean storm which may throw additional cloudiness back into the region and otherwise create blustery and colder weather March 22 into March 23. This will probably delay the arrival of the next system so that March 24 is fair. Watch for a minor system with light precipitation late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)
Overall pattern looks somewhat milder and mainly dry at this time as high pressure should be dominant, maybe making the “In like a lion, out like a lamb” folklore quite true this year.

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Saturday Forecast

9:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 16-20)
This period covers the last 4 full days of the winter and the day of the Vernal Equinox, or the official astronomical arrival of spring. All of them will be dry. A brisk and seasonably chilly westerly flow will dominate the weekend before it settles early in the week, only to pick up again by midweek. To give you an idea of how quiet the pattern will be, the most notable weather event of the next 5 days will probably be the instability clouds that have formed to the west and will try to cross the sky today while being thwarted by drying air. This probably means most of these clouds will be over the hills west and north of the Boston area, with fewer or even no clouds southeast. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting up to 30 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting up to 20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)
Cold front passes by March 21 but may only produce some cloudiness and no precipitation. Dry, cooler March 22-23. Milder trend later in the period but may be introduced by some wet weather in the March 24-25 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)
Overall pattern looks somewhat milder and mainly dry at this time as high pressure should be dominant.

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Friday Forecast

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
Beware the Ides of March! Why? Because they might fool you into thinking it’s April with the mild air that will be in place, reaching or exceeding 60 in some places. But the usual exceptions will be there, especially the South Coast and Cape Cod, where 40s to middle 50s will do it thanks to a wind off the chilly ocean water. Portions of the eastern coastal areas will also be cooler with a wind partially off the water at times, especially in locations that jut out from the general coastline slightly. The other price to pay for the mild southerly flow today will be rain showers at times, ahead of a cold front, but it won’t be a rainy day by any stretch. We will see the shower activity tend to favor southeastern MA with time, where it will also linger longer, well into this evening. Finally, a cold front will rid the region of not only showers but mild air, replacing it will a more seasonable March chill, a little bit Saturday, and a little bit more Sunday. The trade-off will be that the least chilly day on Saturday will also be the windier of the 2, with considerably less wind Sunday. The chilly air will continue into early next week and the current indications are the disturbance that was on the watch list for Monday will pass just south of the region, keeping the weather dry for the balance of the period. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 42-49 South Coast, 50-57 immediate East Coast and just inland from the South Coast, 58-65 interior from central MA to Merrimack Valley to southwestern and south central NH. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts toward morning.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)
And just like that, winter’s officially over, at least by the calendar, as the Vernal Equinox occurs March 20. I can, with moderate confidence, declare that the storm threat is a little less during the first few days of this period with no phasing of northern and southern jet stream energy likely, resulting in just a cold frontal passage early March 21 to make the first full day of spring feel a little more like winter, but other than a passing rain or snow shower that day it looks generally dry through March 23, with a rain threat becoming possible by the end of the period. As mentioned yesterday, this drier overall pattern in the next 10 days is favorable for reducing the flood threat on rivers due to melting snow in areas to the north that have a much heavier snow pack.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)
The latter days of March 2019 look like they will transition toward a traditional spring-like pattern. After some fair and cooler weather to start the period we’ll need to watch for a slower-moving, strung out storm system to bring some unsettled weather.

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Thursday Forecast

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 14-18)
Milder air arrives today although sun will be thwarted initially by some stubborn cloudiness due to a bit of an atmospheric inversion to star the day, but we will see some sun break out. Clouds return tonight and we probably won’t see much of any on Friday as a cold front approaches, eventually producing rain showers. It will also be the mildest day for most of the region, exception being the South Coast where wind will be coming straight off the very cool ocean water. Dry weather returns over the weekend, with a brisk breeze Saturday as it turns cooler, but more tranquil under arriving high pressure St. Patrick’s Day Sunday although a little colder still. Continuing to watch a small low pressure system that will make a run at the region Monday, producing at least some cloudiness. Its track will determine if enough moisture will get into the region for a little snow/mix, and the most likely region for this to happen as it stands now is to the south. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy start then partly sunny. Highs 45-52 South Coast, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy start then mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 42-49 South Coast, 50-57 immediate East Coast and just inland from the South Coast, 58-65 interior from central MA to Merrimack Valley to southwestern and south central NH. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers likely. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of snow/mix favoring southern areas. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)
Although this period remains somewhat vulnerable to wintry weather as temperatures will be running on the colder side of normal and the passage of a couple low pressure troughs is likely, the configuration of these may keep the region safe from significant storminess. This is how it’s currently seen but that by no means leaves the region in the clear of threat. Will continue to monitor. It may just as easily stay mainly dry for the entire period which would be good news as it would minimize flood potential from melting snow entering rivers.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)
Storm system may threaten early in the period, with another threat possible late in the period as we enter a transitional pattern toward one more typical of springtime, and right on time too as we’ll be in the early days of it.

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Wednesday Forecast

7:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)
High pressure brings a cool but tranquil day to southeastern New England today, but you’ll notice high cloudiness streaming in during the day which may thicken up enough to blot out the sun before we would see it set. This is a signal of warmer air moving into the region, which often happens aloft first. At the surface it will be here tomorrow, and especially Friday. But tomorrow is the pick, weather-wise, as Friday eventually turns wet ahead of an approaching cold front. By the weekend, look for a cool-down but with mainly dry weather as we will be in a brisk northwesterly air flow Saturday and then more tranquil for St. Patrick’s Day as high pressure moves in. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds then sun fades later. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk for brief light snow/sleet/rain crossing the region. Lows 28-35 by late evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light variable evening, light SW overnight.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52 South Coast, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 42-49 South Coast, 50-57 immediate East Coast and just inland from the South Coast, 58-65 interior from central MA to Merrimack Valley to southwestern and south central NH. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)
This is a vulnerable period for colder than average weather and also 1 or 2 potential winter weather events. A small system will pass nearby on March 18 and may be close enough for snow/mix. We will have to watch the evolution of a potential second system mid to late period. No guarantee anything happens but also cannot blindly rule it out.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)
Another weather system may threaten around March 24 and this period will transition from chilly to somewhat milder weather, but any time you look into the future and see milder chances in March you must keep in mind snowcover still very plentiful to the north and the cold ocean water, both of which can have local and regional impact. So even though by then the calendar says “spring”, that season in this part of the country is never a slam dunk to start off all warm and sunny with everything blooming. In fact, even in a milder pattern, it’s not starting that way here. That comes later…

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