7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 10-14)

Tropical Storm Fay formed just off the East Coast of the US yesterday and will make a rapid run up the coast, center making landfall over the northern Mid Atlantic tonight then racing northward up the Hudson Valley region early Saturday morning. This is going to be a very quick “event” for us here in the form of a gusty breeze, a couple waves of showers / downpours and potential thunder (which carry a slight potential of a few damaging wind gusts), and tropical humidity, and then it’s gone, just like that, leaving us with a sun/cloud mix Saturday but still quite humid. Also a lingering trough behind Fay may help ignite some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday, but right now the greatest chance for this to happen is just west of the WHW forecast area, some making their way in weakening or scattered form into the region during the evening or night. Humidity comes down a notch Sunday but another weak trough swinging through may still help fire off a shower or thunderstorm in a few places during the afternoon / early evening so can’t forecast totally dry. If there is one “significant” change to this outlook it is that a slightly stronger disturbance seems slated to want to make a passing visit on Monday, and that will again increase the risk of showers and thunderstorms before drier air finally arrives for Tuesday.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers and possible thunderstorms any time this afternoon, but greatest risk mid to late afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Very humid. Lows 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. Slightly less humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Slightly less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-87. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak to moderate westerly air flow much of the time. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.

C-19 Chat Post – July 10 2020

7:49AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 9-13)

Today we find ourselves deeper in the feel of the summer season we’re in – a little more heat than yesterday (though not excessively hot), and humidity on the high side. We don’t have a trough to kick off a batch of storms similar to what happened yesterday to the north – although those storms did not really make it down into Massachusetts from VT & NH as there was more stable air in place there. Today, we may see isolated pop-up air mass showers and thunderstorms, simply due to daytime heating, so be aware of that possibility. Any of these will fade as the sun sets, and tonight will be simply warm and muggy – a classic summer night. Next we turn our attention to a system that has been talked about as the bringing of a Saturday wash-out, or even by some, a weekend wash-out. You may have been lead to believe this by a verbatim interpretation of computer model forecasts, especially the currently very poorly-performing ECMWF model. Once again, this is where using the science of meteorology comes into play. This system, whether the NHC classifies it as something or not, will indeed be coming northward up the East Coast, but it’s going to be a relatively small low pressure area and take an “inside runner” track, over the Delmarva region and probably up through the Hudson Valley Friday night and early Saturday. And while that does mean we can get some heavy tropical rainfall, it’s likely come in the form of 2 or 3 lobes of showers and thunderstorms, moving rapidly south to north across the region, during the window of late Friday afternoon to very early Saturday morning. Once that low is beyond our latitude, we’ll be left in a south to southwesterly air flow of very humid air for Saturday, which for the most part is likely to be rain-free, as is Sunday. We’ll have to watch, however, for the development of afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms especially near a weak lingering trough line behind the low Saturday as it drifts to the east, and another trough approaching from the west again by later on Sunday. While we remain in a warm and somewhat humid air mass for Monday, there will be less of a risk of any showers/storms forming due to more stable air which will have arrived at that time.

TODAY: Areas of fog & low clouds into mid morning, otherwise partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, but a few higher gusts possible near any storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly mid to late afternoon, favoring areas south of I-90. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak southwesterly to westerly flow overall. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.

C-19 Chat Post – July 9 2020

7:51AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 8-12)

Warm front passes this morning with no more than isolated quick tropical showers. Clouds may break for sun at times after that but not expecting completely clearing today. A weak disturbance approaching from the northwest will be enough to kick off showers and thunderstorms it interacts with daytime heating and humidity, and these will take place mostly from during the second half of this afternoon into very early evening, and will be most potent as they move into and across southern NH and the northern portions of Worcester, Middlesex, and Essex Counties in Massachusetts. South of there, the air will be more stable, and the timing too late, so any advance of showers and storms into areas there and southward will be thwarted and they should fall apart rather quickly in most if not all cases. Where they do occur, briefly strong storms are possible with downpours, lightning, and even some small hail possible. A quiet but muggy night tonight, and the heat is up a notch along with humidity continuing Thursday, but there will be less of a kicker for storms so only isolated air mass storms are possible mainly over central MA and southern NH. Humidity continues again into Friday and may go up even further, while it will not be nearly as warm as Thursday. This will be due to a more south to southeasterly air flow ahead of approaching low pressure that had its origins in the Gulf of Mexico. This low will move up and across the region Friday night and Saturday morning with a slug of appreciable rain likely. Its steady movement should allow us to salvage a good part of Saturday without widespread rainfall, but we will run the risk of additional showers and thunderstorms popping in daytime heating and with a lingering trough behind the departing low. Sunday will be a touch less humid but still somewhat humid, and we will still have the risk of a few pop up showers and storms, though much more of the region will be rain-free on Sunday as a lingering trough will be nearby but a shadow of its former self by then.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers early to mid morning, favoring RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH. Scattered showers and thunderstorms arriving late afternoon to early evening southern NH and north central to northeastern MA with a few strong storms possible. Humid. Highs 80-87, cooler some South Coast areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring central MA to southwestern and south central NH. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a shower. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with showers likely early morning. Partly sunny remainder of day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH early, becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Weak high pressure brings drier and seasonably warm weather July 13-14. Disturbance from the northwest brings clouds and a shower/thunderstorm risk during the July 15-16 period with drier weather following. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

Ridge position well to the west, northwesterly air flow aloft, limited shower/thunderstorm risks, but when they occur they can be potent. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – July 8 2020

7:48AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 7-11)

The only adjustment to today’s forecast from yesterday’s is to slow timing of larger scale features and synoptic systems a little bit, but the overall picture remains the same: warm front passage tonight / early Wednesday, trough hanging around the area Wednesday and Thursday, all mechanisms that can help kick off some shower and thunderstorm activity, though it will be rain-free far more of the time than it is raining in any given location. Tropical moisture from the south still looks as if it will make it up this far and give us a better chance of widespread rainfall Friday night into Saturday. How quickly it exits on Saturday is a question at this time, but even a quicker exit would still leave the atmosphere ripe for additional shower/thunderstorm development during the day.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm overnight. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

Lingering tropical moisture brings a risk of showers/thunderstorms July 12. Drier weather July 13-14. Disturbance from the northwest may bring some unsettled weather for the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Ridge position well to the west, northwesterly air flow aloft, limited shower/thunderstorm risks, but when they occur they can be potent. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – July 7 2020

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 6-10)

About 90% of the area starts the day under a blanket of stratus clouds today as our cooler air deliver behind the front was of the marine variety once again, due to orientation of high pressure to the north behind last night’s passing cold front and thunderstorms. But this area of clouds will erode away today as dry air works in, and most places will eventually see sunshine. But more changes are coming, and clouds move back in for Tuesday ahead of a warm front. This front may trigger a shower or thunderstorm for parts of the region Tuesday night, and it will lead a new batch of summertime humidity into the region for Wednesday through Friday. A couple disturbances in the region may trigger afternoon showers and thunderstorms in some locations both Wednesday and Thursday. The question mark for Friday is whether or not we get enhanced moisture from the northeastward / northward movement of a tropical disturbance currently in the Gulf of Mexico, so we will watch that during the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then decreasing clouds and increasing sun. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 57-64. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 75-82. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

The July 11-12 weekend forecast hinges at least partially on what happens with the tropical moisture to the south, so for now just leaving it at a risk of showers and thunderstorms and will work on the details during the week. Somewhat drier air should follow this without any major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Still eyeing a shift to a little more zonal flow, warmer, and limited shower/storm risks.

C-19 Chat Post – July 6 2020