DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)
A cold front will move across the region from northwest to southeast today. The extensive cloud cover ahead of the front and the early timing of the frontal boundary will work to prevent a significant thunderstorm flare up. A few clusters of heavier showers and possible thunderstorms are most likely from a Boston-Hartford line southeastward during this afternoon. However I’m not expecting any of these to become severe, though some may produce heavy downpours that make travel temporarily difficult. Otherwise, it just looks like a general area of showers will move up across the WHW forecast area from southwest to northeast this afternoon into this evening before moving away, at which time a dry, cooler air mass arrives. This sets up great early summer weather for midweek with a northwest breeze, sun & passing clouds Wednesday, and a sunny Thursday with light winds and a developing sea breeze, both days having very low humidity. High pressure which moves in from the Great Lakes Wednesday and right across the region Thursday will shift offshore by Friday and a warm front will approach the region with more cloudiness moving in during that day. There will be a shower threat Friday night or first thing Saturday as the front goes by and then we’ll find ourselves in a warm, more humid air mass for the start of the weekend. But any shower and thunderstorm threat with the next cold front should remain well west of the WHW forecast area Saturday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general showers and thunderstorms midday and afternoon, with thunderstorms / downpours most likely in eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 53-60. Dew point falling significantly to the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point in the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point in the 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point rising slightly to lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point holding in lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 75-82, cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Fog patches forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)
Cold front moves into the region from west to east with warm/humid weather June 27 and an increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms, especially west and north of Boston, depending on expected timing. Frontal boundary may stay nearby June 28-29 with additional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms and warm/humid conditions. Front should push offshore by June 30 but upper low may produce a few additional showers or thunderstorms before drier weather arrives from the west end of period.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)
A weak frontal boundary may cross the region somewhere in the first couple days of this period with a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms, but the overall trend is for a westerly air flow and typical summertime warmth with mostly rain-free weather and moderate levels of humidity overall.