DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)

Our first significant storm in a while is in progress, and despite the fact that snow grabbed the headlines in most media, even though it is fairly confined to expected areas and seems to be following expecting accumulations, the biggest story with this system is the beneficial precipitation it is bringing, since essentially all of southeastern New England had been categorized in abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions as of the last update. So this will knock that back significantly, though we still need more precipitation to further deplete the deficit. We’ll see how that goes as we move into later April. But for now, it’s this system we have to deal with. And today, low pressure will do a cyclonic loop right over southeastern New England as it is captured by upper level low pressure tracking slowly eastward across there region. The stacked system, which you can visualize as an atmospheric un-stretched slinky, will then drift away tonight and Saturday. It’ll take a good amount of time for it to pull its moisture out of here, and even longer for us to be rid of its cloudiness, but it will happen eventually. Sunday, we’ll be in a westerly flow of slightly milder and mostly dry air, but a weak disturbance will still bring some cloudiness and a slight rain shower chance. For now I’m keeping that shower chance out of Monday’s forecast, a day which will be milder still. And finally the warmest day of the next five will be Tuesday, when we’re in a southwesterly air flow ahead of an approach trough, a day that I think will be dry as the next frontal system and associated moisture will still be far enough west to not impact this area.

TODAY: Cloudy with snow/mix inland areas especially higher elevations, rain most coastal areas possibly mixing with or turning to wet snow at times, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 3-6 inches in highest elevations of southwestern NH to around the MA border, 1-3 inches on mainly unpaved surfaces mostly west of I-495 and mostly near and north of I-90, and slushy coatings possible as far east as the I-95 region from I-90 northward. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast region, 64-71 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)

A strong cold front is expected to move across the region from west to east April 21 which will itself be mild with rain showers, followed by much cooler but dry weather April 22-23. Moderating temperatures but rain chances go up again later in the period based on expecting timing of the next area of low pressure from the west in what will be a more zonal (west to east flow) pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)

Continuing a zonal pattern idea but with a mean trough in eastern Canada and the northeastern US opening the door for some additional shots of chilly air. Overall pattern may trend drier again.

C-19 Chat Post – April 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 15-19)

All week we’ve been eyeing the possibility of some mid April snowflakes. Nothing new for us at this time of year. In fact, just last year on April 17-18 there was a storm system that produced measurable snow right to the coast and a general 1-3 inches across much of eastern MA and 3-6 inches in higher elevations of RI and central MA. These systems happen. They are not easy to forecast since quite often the rain vs. snow can be and often is even more needle-threading than a winter system to nail down in terms of a forecast. But I have not over analyzed this one. Here’s my best shot. In general, we will be seeing low pressure moving eastward off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast later today and intensifying as it is captured by its upper low pressure partner pulling it northeastward and making it do a bit of a cyclone loop. This system will be at its maximum intensity as it is making its closest pass. The various computer guidance, as is typical, display some differences but in general most of them bring the low center right in over southeastern New England while it does its loop. One model (the NAM) has been forecasting this loop to be a little further southeast, offshore or barely to Cape Cod, on its last couple runs, and the result has been its snowfall forecast has been to bring the rain/snow line further east, producing more snow into eastern MA than is depicted by other guidance. A springtime setup like this can be one that produces substantial amounts of snowfall in higher elevation while just a few miles away you see all rain. Snowfall can occur in lower elevations if you keep the warmest air away, which could happen with a low center a little further offshore. So you see the forecasting dilemma. Believe the outlier model that has pretty much no support from any other model, or lean toward the solution shown by pretty much all other available guidance? For now, this forecast will look similar to yesterday’s with added detail since the event starts soon. I’m not biting on the dramatic solution the NAM offers. But as there have been times that it, as an outlier, has been correct, it’s obviously wise to monitor closely. Does it do this again on its next run? Does it come back to the other models’ ideas? Or do they join it? It plays out like a meteorological soap opera! Stay tuned……….. Whatever happens with precipitation details, the heaviest of it ends Friday morning and as the low matures (“fills”, or “stacks”, basically becoming vertical low pressure tube underneath and with its upper low), it will start to pull away but will still be close enough to keep Friday overcast with occasional rain/mix/snow eventually tapering to drizzle before ending. This process may take until early Saturday to be completed, and with the low still offshore, Saturday will be day with a gusty breeze and a fair amount of cloudiness before enough dry air works in for more sun later. The Sunday-Monday outlook is still OK, but high pressure’s center is likely to be a little further southwest, which allows it to turn milder, but also leaves the door open for a couple low pressure troughs to move along in a more zonal (west to east) flow, so we would have at least some cloudiness around at times, and possibly a couple shower chances as these disturbances pass by.

TODAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving in central MA & RI mid to late afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times, changing to snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH, central MA, and mixing with or changing to snow in higher elevations of northern RI where some accumulation is possible. Rain may mix with or change to snow eastward toward the I-95 belt toward dawn. Lows 34-41. Wind E 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix inland areas, rain/mix coastal areas, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 3-6 inches in highest elevations of southwestern NH to around the MA border, 1-3 inches on mainly unpaved surfaces to about I-495 and mostly near and north of I-90, and less than 1 inch as far east as the I-95 region from I-90 northward. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 20-24)

A shot of warmer air to start the period but an approaching trough from the west likely means a chance of rain showers to go along with that. Cooler air follows that as the shower threat gives way to fair weather for the middle of the period. Approaching low pressure may bring a rain chance late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 25-29)

Unsettled weather threats most likely early and again late in this period with fair weather in between. Temperatures near to possibly below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)

A weak area of high pressure provides a decent mid April day today before things go downhill. However, this downhill slide provides us with the best chance for widespread beneficial precipitation for a while, and we need that. It also brings the chance of some very late season (nearly post season) snowflakes for some areas. It all takes place as low pressure moving eastward from the Midwest redevelops south of New England Thursday night into Friday and matures rapidly. The upper level low pressure system associated with this system will contain plenty of cold air aloft and will be moving right across our area. This is a springtime set-up in which the cold air above can be drawn to the surface by the falling precipitation, which begins as rain everywhere. We’ll see a change over to snow at least in the higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA, possibly northern RI. How far east and how low in elevation this at least mix and possible change can occur is still a little fuzzy and something we’ll have to watch closely as the system evolves. As it stands now, this should be a system that brings steadiest precipitation from mid evening Thursday to mid morning Friday, with the greatest chance of accumulating snow occurring west of the I-95 belt and north of I-90 during the darkness of the early morning of Friday. This system will also produce some gusty wind from the east during the time its producing its heaviest precipitation, which will then switch to north as it stacks with its upper level low and gradually pulls away during Friday. By Saturday, this system will be far enough away that we’re dry again, other than the chance of some lingering low level moisture enough for some drizzle/showers near the coast in the early morning, and perhaps a pop up shower during the day as a considerable amount of cloudiness will be present. A small area of high pressure will have arrived by Sunday which will make the “pick-of-the-weekend” for outdoor activity an easy one…

TODAY: Most clouds early to mid morning southwestern NH, central MA, and RI, with more sun to the east. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy all areas this afternoon. Highs 54-61 coast, 62-69 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving in central MA and RI by late in the day. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times, changing to snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH, central MA, and mixing with or changing to snow in higher elevations of northern RI where some accumulation is possible. Rain may mix with snow eastward toward the I-95 belt overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix/rain inland areas, rain coastal areas, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)

An area of high pressure slides offshore with fair, mild weather April 19. Next trough of low pressure moves in from the west with some unsettled weather April 20-21 before fair weather returns later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-28)

Unsettled weather threats most likely early and again late in this period with fair weather in between. Temperatures near to possibly below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)

Low pressure to our east drifts away today but we’ll still be in a northeasterly air flow behind it with a gusty breeze at times. A weak ridge of high pressure moves over the region Wednesday which will be a decent day with less wind and feeling a bit milder than today will. The next low pressure system approaches from the southwest later Thursday and likely has a more significant impact on our area than the last few have. This is good news, as it looks like it may deliver a batch of significant and beneficial precipitation, mostly in the form of rain. But, the air above us is going to be quite cold for mid April and we may see some mix/snow in higher elevations of interior southern New England. There is some chance that flakes occur even at lower elevations close to the coast if the set-up is just right. It’s hard to forecast such an occurrence more than a couple days in advance, so it will have to be monitored. This system should be slowly pulling away from the region by Saturday, which will likely be a blustery and cool spring day with limited sun, and may even start wet in some areas, depending on how fast the storm system exits.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible near the South Coast in the afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain to the north. Areas of fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow some interior higher elevations late day or evening. Temperatures steady 38-45 to start, then may fall slowly. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, some mix/snow interior higher elevations and possibly a few lower elevations and coastal areas, tapering off and ending. Lows 32-39. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)

High pressure builds in with fair, milder weather for April 18-19. A trough may bring some unsettled weather April 20-21 before fair weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-27)

Next wet weather threat times for the middle of this period which should feature a more zonal (west to east) pattern. Still have to keep this a vague, low confidence forecast at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – April 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)

It’s mid April, and this week’s weather will very typical of its time. Four out of the next five days will fit into the unsettled category, and you may as well root for rain, because we need it. But will anybody see April snowflakes? The answer: Maybe. We’ll get to that. First, we’ll deal with unsettled period number 1, today and Tuesday, which will largely be a cloud-fest and not so much a rain kind of thing. Yes there is a weakening band of rain stretching from the southwest corner of NH and northwestern MA into the Worcester MA area as of sunrise this morning, but that area won’t do a whole lot other than sit in place and rain itself out as its obliterated by mid level dry air. And speaking of sunrise, early-rises were greeted to a spectacular show of color and clouds in the sky in east central and northeastern MA as well as across much of southern NH. This was able to happen as enough dry air above kept the clouds fairly thin to the northeast and east, while enough dry air got in at low levels to allow the deck of stratus clouds to clear out. But the clouds will dominate today, and some lower clouds are likely to return at least in variable form as the air flow continues to come off the Atlantic. A little more dry air may get into the mix tonight to break those clouds up at least partially once again, but in general the cloudiness will dominate through Tuesday, along with very limited rain chances and perhaps enough low level moisture for a few drizzle pockets closer to eastern coastal areas. The upper level low and its associated southward-squashed surface low will finally pull away by Wednesday, when a weak ridge of high pressure builds in for what I’ll call “the weak pick of the week” – probably not a spectacular day, but likely better than the 2 that came before it and the 2 that will come after it. That’s because another upper low will drift its way eastward to the East Coast by later Thursday and Friday. The center of this upper low is likely to pass just to the south of New England during Friday and Friday night, and associated surface low pressure should be able to get closer to New England than did its predecessor, so we stand a better chance at seeing some beneficial precipitation. Precipitation? That means rain, right? Yes, mainly so. But the air with that upper level low is going to be quite cold above us, and some of our fairly reliable guidance has indicated that it will be cold enough for some mixed precipitation or even a turn to snow, especially in higher elevations of interior southern New England, by later Friday. Whether this happens or not, and if it happens whether or not there is any accumulation can’t really be determined yet, but the possibility is definitely there, and something I’ll be monitoring as we go through the week. So many areas reach the middle to upper 70s this past Saturday and just 6 days later some of them could see snowflakes? Yes, and that shouldn’t surprise you. It may represent a contrast of weather, but that’s exactly “normal” for springtime here in New England.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy light rain north central MA and southern NH mainly early morning. A slight chance of light rain eastern CT and RI. Patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal areas mainly during the afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain mostly well southwest of Boston. Chance of drizzle mainly eastern coastal areas through midday. Highs 47-54. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible near the South Coast in the afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain to the north. Areas of fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow some interior higher elevations late day or evening. Temperatures steady 38-45 to start, then may fall slowly. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)

If all goes as expected, we’ll be on the back side of departing low pressure to start the third weekend of April with Saturday (17th) being a breezy, cool, sun/cloud kind of day, although eastern coastal areas may be stubborn to improve at first if enough northeast wind and wrap-around moisture lingers behind that system. High pressure is expected to build in for April 18-19 with fair weather and a warming trend but coastal sea breezes of course. A low pressure system from the west may bring some unsettled weather around April 20 possibly into April 21 before departing to the east as we transition to a quicker-flowing zonal (west to east) weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)

Indications / trends for a more zonal pattern, but only low confidence in this due to questionable guidance and the knowledge that a block can form easily in the spring. For now will go with dry weather to start and end this period with a wet weather threat in between.

C-19 Chat Post – April 12 2021