DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

Today’s discussion will be a quick one to summarize the features in control of our weather from today through the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. Tomorrow I’ll expand a little bit more to detail the final 5 days of May… Warmer air is making its way in aloft and that’s the reason for the cloudiness we’ll have around today – but these clouds are not going to produce any rainfall in our area, so overall it will be a nice day. You’ll notice the humidity creeping up tonight and especially on Friday as we get into a stronger southerly air flow ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure and associated surface low which will drag a warm front through the region late Friday with a round of showers and a few possible thunderstorms, but the greater risk of showers and storms comes with a trough early Saturday morning and then again with a cold front Saturday afternoon – the timing of these we will have to fine-tune in the next 2 days. This means that the holiday weekend gets off to an unsettled start, but there is good news as it looks like high pressure builds in to salvage 2 of the 3 days, with fair weather for Sunday (removed shower threat) and Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring western areas late in the day. More humid – dewpoint cracking 60. Highs 66-73 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly thunderstorms, favoring early morning and sometime afternoon / evening. Areas of fog early. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds break, but fog patches remain. Humidity lowers. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-57. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

The heat potential is there for May 31 and/or June 1 but odds are starting to favor one or even both of those days seeing that thwarted by a back-door cold front and cooler maritime air, at least over eastern parts of the region. After that, the fair and warmer pattern may try to take hold but we will still have to watch for maritime influences. No sign of any significant rainfall, which we need, and this will allow our dry / early drought to expand.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and seasonable to slightly warmer than normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-26-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 25-29)

The meteorological process today takes me a little deeper into deciphering the mystery that is predicting the future, and now 2 of the 3 days that comprise Memorial Day Weekend will be in this DAYS 1-5 forecast period. Recalling recent tremendous disagreement among major medium range guidance, the process started with acknowledging that both solutions were likely overdone, and that reality likely lies somewhere between solutions. Since then, there’s been a little more agreement developing between the various models, although they are not quite “there” yet. But this leads me to further investigation based on what I know of model bias as it relates to the current and upcoming weather pattern.What I am confident of is that today will be a fairly nice day as high pressure, albeit weak, governs our weather. Coolest air will again be felt along the coast – typical for this spring set-up. High pressure shifts offshore tonight and Thursday and a warm front quietly goes by, with Thursday daytime featuring a varying amount of clouds but also some sunshine, mild to warm air, but still dry in terms of humidity. It is on Friday and Saturday when we will see the humidity spike up, but with the approach of a trough of low pressure and a surface low pressure area and frontal system, our chance of wet weather will go up too. The current idea is that the shower threat during the daytime hours of Friday will be mostly to the west of the WHW forecast area, but expand into the region at night, and then Saturday is the day that is likely to at least start with occasional showery weather. If we manage to get a wave of low pressure that sits to our south, as some guidance has suggested, we could end up with an onshore flow and a general overcast with drizzle and showers that persists more of the day. Some guidance pushes the system offshore a little more steadily and allows for drying to take place later on in the day, and I am cautiously optimistically leaning toward this scenario, but not completely losing the shower threat. In fact, I think there will still be enough influence from low pressure that we can see a pop up shower on Sunday too, but that the day overall will feature improvement over Saturday with a little more sunshine and lower humidity. With the importance of the forecast for this unofficial start of the summer season upcoming, I’ll continues to monitor and make any forecast adjustments needed, but for now this is how it looks.

TODAY: More sun than clouds. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable teo SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring western areas late in the day. More humid – dewpoint cracking 60. Highs 66-73 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Humid – dew point 60+. Highs 65-72, cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, may become E.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds break, but fog patches remain. Humidity lowers. Lows 55-62. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud/sun mix. A pop up shower possible. Highs 68-75, coolest near the coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

If things follow the scenario I expect, then Memorial Day Monday would be a fair weather day with warmer inland temperatures but a cooler coastal sea breeze. After that building high pressure offshore could provide a taste of summer heat again for the final day of May. After that there are signs that high pressure drops down from eastern Canada with fair and somewhat cooler weather to start June, but a warm-up by late in the period as the high settles to the south. Obviously days 6-10 leave a fair amount of uncertainty on the table. As we wrap up meteorological spring, barring a heavier rainfall than forecast for the end of this week, we are going to end the March through May period in the top 10 as far as dry weather goes. Meteorological spring’s driest occurred in 1915 with only 3.50 inches of rain for Boston, with 1910, 1981, and 1927 coming in at #’s 2, 3, and 4, with 4.49 inches, 4.93 inches, and 4.95 inches, respectively. (Info from NWS via WBZ Meteorologist Eric Fisher.) At 5.84 inches of rain for March, April, and May-to-date, Boston sits at 8th driest with just a handful of days left to go.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 4-8)

A weak blocking pattern may try to establish itself but the overall weather pattern remains on the dry side with no extremes of temperature.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-25-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)

High pressure will be in control of our weather today through Wednesday, first centered to our north then slipping down over and eventually southeast of our area, so today will be the cooler and breezier of the two days with a northeasterly wind. We’ll also see periodic higher level cloudiness from abundant moisture to our south. With a low pressure trough approaching from the west and high pressure offshore of the Atlantic Coast we get into a more southerly air flow Thursday and Friday, with a warming trend, but also a fair amount of cloudiness at times too. We may not end up seeing much rainfall around here though as it looks like a lot of that will remain to our west. This is a slower evolution than some guidance had yesterday and this lends a little more credibility to the more unsettled weather scenario as we head into the Memorial Day Weekend – a forecast that still needs a lot of work. For now though, I’m leaning toward an unsettled Saturday to start it off, with lots of clouds and some wet weather, but probably not a widespread rainfall either, though we finally get the trough of low pressure and frontal boundary right into our region.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 58-65 immediate coast, 65-72 inland. wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior valleys, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind NE under 10 MPH to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. More humid. Highs 66-73 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Humid. Highs 65-72, cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

The forecast for the remainder of the Memorial Day Weekend (May 29-30) is low confidence but for now leaning toward just a chance of a few showers around on Sunday and improving but cooler weather Monday with more of an onshore air flow as high pressure to the north pushes low pressure away to the south. End May / early June should feature fair and seasonably mild weather with weak high pressure in control.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)

Early June pattern continues to look like it will be somewhere between weak zonal flow and weak omega blocking with us on the drier side of the pattern overall, along with mostly seasonable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-24-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

We’ve made it through the mini spell of heat, which wasn’t much of a hot spell for the coast until a few hours on Sunday. In fact, the location that represents Boston never made it to 90. We know they stayed well below that at 71 for a high Saturday, and yesterday they fell short by 1, topping out at 89. The showers and thunderstorms behaved about as expected yesterday, with the isolated activity during the afternoon, even a strong storm southwest of the city, and then the weakening activity with the front last night. Now that cold front has gone through and we’re in a new, refreshing air mass from Canada. High pressure will build north of our region over the next few days and supply is with fair and dry weather with cooler air as well. We won’t be totally sunny each day as the front sits just to the south and some waves of low pressure will be moving along it, but my current thought is that any rain will remain south of New England. Kind of a shame, because we need it. Our next shot at unsettled weather comes later Thursday and Friday as high pressure slips offshore and low pressure passes northwest of us, bringing its warm front through later Thursday and then its cold front during Friday. We’ll fine-tune those details during the week.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72, coolest east-facing shores. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers by late in the day. Highs 65-72. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. More humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

Memorial Day Weekend (May 28-30) has a forecasting dilemma. Today’s medium range guidance is rather split, with 2 major models now showing unsettled weather for at least part of the weekend, and a third model painting a totally different picture with a generally dry weekend. For the moment I’m leaning toward a delay to the onset of dry weather with possible unsettled weather on the Saturday, then improvement thereafter, but this is low confidence and another thing to work out as we get closer. End May / early June should feature fair and seasonably mild weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

Early June pattern looks like it wants to be somewhere between weak zonal flow and weak omega blocking with us on the drier side of the pattern overall, along with mostly seasonable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-23-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

“Uh-oh”, or something more colorful I can’t type here, may be the first thought of someone rising around or just after dawn from Cape Ann MA to NH Seacoast, under a blanket of stratus with temperatures in the upper 50s. Even Boston and immediate North Shore sits in the upper 50s with a light east wind, although without the stratus. Are you thinking – “here we go again, no warm-up today either”? Today will be different. Most of the remainder of the region is already in a southwesterly air flow, and this will finally make its way across the eastern coastal areas of MA and NH and areas that were stuck in the 60s to around 70 yesterday will make a significant jump today. But as I cautioned and also forecast yesterday, today’s temperatures right at the shoreline will be cooler, probably under 90 in many locations for high temperatures, and certainly so along the South Coast and across Cape Cod where the southwest wind is a “sea breeze” by default. So not everybody will be baking in the early heat. Where that heat was yesterday, this will be day 2 and the final day of a short spell of it, where as other areas will have the warm to hot weather for today only. A cold front crossing the region tonight is going to put an end to any heat. Other than an isolated air mass thunderstorm that may pop up well ahead of this front in a couple areas today, it’ll be dry during the daylight hours. Tonight, after sunset, a remnant line of showers and maybe embedded thunderstorms will cross the region from west to east, but it will have lost a lot of the punch it will have to our west where the timing will favor stronger storms. We’ll have lost some of our dynamics (which were around but capped from activating yesterday) and will be losing daytime heating, so we will miss out on big storms but also be gypped of any beneficial rain, as just brief showers will pass by. We’re back to dry weather Monday behind the front, along with cooler air and lower humidity. The high pressure area supplying the cooler air is going to drift eastward but with its center staying to our north, so we’ll see our surface wind here turn northerly to northeasterly as we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, and we’ll also have to watch for a couple of waves of low pressure passing by on the front that goes by Sunday night, which will sit not far to the south for a few days. This could bring occasional cloudiness back into the region, and while it’s not shown by guidance at this point, even a shield of rainfall may try to work into at least southern portions of the region sometime Tuesday or early Wednesday. Right now though, odds favor it staying rain-free and it’s just something to keep an eye on. When we get to Thursday though, that frontal boundary will start lifting back to the north in response to an approaching trough from the west, so regardless of what happens prior, we may end up with lots of clouds and the threat of some rainfall by then.

TODAY: Low clouds parts of Cape Ann MA to NH Seacoast dissipating by midday, sunshine elsewhere. A few clouds may build and an isolated thunderstorm or two is possible mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT, this afternoon. Highs 74-81 South Coast, 82-89 just inland from South Coast as well as along East Coast shoreline, 90-97 elsewhere with hottest over interior valleys. Humid – dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late-day, but still some weak sea breezes for a while along some immediate East Coast shores.

TONIGHT: Clouds move in evening – a round of showers with possible thunder west to east. Clearing overnight. Humid through midnight, drying overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower possible South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs 72-79. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain favoring the South Coast. Highs 66-73, coolest east-facing shores. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain favoring the South Coast. Lows 49-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast early. Highs 66-73. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 63-70. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

A lot of scrutiny will be on this period of time with Memorial Day Weekend sitting right in the middle of this period (May 28-30), so the entire period is important for planning including people who may be traveling regionally a little early or extending the weekend an extra day. Obviously a forecast for days 6 to 10 is not going to carry with it a guarantee of accuracy or be made with very high confidence, given its time in the future, but here’s my best early guess… Friday May 27 we see showery weather as a trough and cold front move through. Saturday May 28 is dry with high pressure moving in. Sunday May 29 and Monday May 30 will see high pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure to our south battling for control – a common theme of spring. This puts a frontal boundary between the 2 and possibly in our vicinity. This increases the chance for cloudiness and at least the possibility of a period of wet weather, but given the overall pattern and tendency to be dry, I’d favor the drier side winning out with the temperature forecast being a toss-up and dependent on which side of a frontal boundary wet sit on or whether or not we’re bisected by it. The same will hold true for Tuesday May 31 looking that far out as well. Obviously, a great deal of fine-tuning will need to be done to this forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

Early June pattern looks like it wants to be somewhere between weak zonal flow and weak omega blocking with us on the drier side of the pattern overall, along with mostly seasonable temperatures. This is just a general idea and a lot more looking is needed.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-22-2022