Thursday Forecast

2:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)…
The pattern has set up with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south, and this will continue through this period. But some drier air will work down from the north today and erode the cloudiness to allow some sunshine, especially north and west of Boston, and possibly right into the city and the immediate southern suburbs as well. Cloudiness will re-take these areas during tonight and Friday, and eventually by Friday night into Saturday the rain chance will increase as an upper low to the southwest gets closer while weakening. Rain chances should go down though clouds will probably continue to dominate Sunday before some clearing take place Monday (uncertain).
TODAY: Clouds break for sun north and west of Boston and into immediate Boston area. Clouds persist to the south and east with sprinkles/drizzle at times. Highs 58-67, coolest under the thickest cloud cover and mildest in interior southern NH. Wind NE 5-15 MPH interior and 10-20 MPH coast, with higher gusts at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty mist/sprinkles mainly southeastern MA. Lows 52-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty mist/sprinkles especially coastal areas. Periods of rain in the afternoon mainly South Coast region. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 52-58. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers/drizzle. Lows 52-60. Highs 60-68.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows 52-60. Highs 62-70.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)…
Improving and milder weather October 4-5. We have not mentioned Matthew yet, mainly because it has no bearing on the first several days of the forecast period. The system will move westward through the Caribbean and likely strengthen from tropical storm to hurricane, before turning northward across Cuba and to a position near or east of the Bahamas. For a few days the idea has been that if the system was to impact this area it would most likely occur around October 6-7. This is still the case, but please know that there remain a wide range of possibilities with this system, from its strength, to its status of tropical versus post-tropical, and its eventual track. So for now we’ll leave it at a risk of rain/wind for a portion of the region during the October 6-7 time frame. Dry, windy, cooler weather would follow the passage of the system, hit or miss.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)…
Drier regime becomes re-established with fair and milder weather expected early through mid period then a few rain showers possible later in the period.

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Wednesday Forecast

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)…
The next 5 days will feature high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south of New England with a generally east to northeast flow, lots of clouds, and occasional damp weather. Will we see any beneficial rain? Best chance comes Friday/Saturday as an upper low from the southwest tries to lift into the region while weakening.
THROUGH THURSDAY: Mainly overcast. Occasional drizzle. A few periods of very light to light rain possible. Temperatures generally holding in the 56-66 range. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH occasionally gusting over 20 MPH.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 52-58. Highs 58-66.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Lows 53-59. Highs 60-68.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)…
Improving weather October 3-5 pending the departure of the low pressure area to the south. Watching for possible rain, directly or indirectly related to a tropical system later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)…
Fair and cooler early in the period, followed by a warming trend.

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Tuesday Forecast

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)…
The idea today is generally the same as yesterday, so this update is basically a carrying forward of what was on the previous blog post. A cold front moves across the region today but slows down and comes to a stop just offshore tonight. The next few days will see a trough of low pressure drop southward from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley, cut off from the main flow, and mill around southwest of New England. The front that goes by today will carry a low pressure area southeast of New England Wednesday and this will help set up an east to northeast air flow as high pressure banks itself north of the region. This air flow will remain in place through late week. Eventually the low to the southwest will get closer and this may increase the rain risk around Friday/Saturday after just spotty mist and showers Wednesday/Thursday.
TODAY: Cloudy with rain showers ending west to east this morning. Partial clearing west to east midday and afternoon. Highs 62-70. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-60. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty drizzle and isolated showers. Highs 66-74.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 50-58. Highs 62-70.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 52-60. Highs 64-72.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 50-58. Highs 60-68.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)…
Episodic showers early to mid period with a similar set up to what we see take place during the next few days. Also may need to watch a tropical system or its associated moisture by the very end of the period, but high uncertainty on that.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)…
A potential tropical system to the south may at least send some of its moisture northward toward or into the region early in the period with a rain risk. This would be followed by drier weather, initially cooler, then with a warm-up.

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Monday Forecast

7:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)…
High pressure hangs on then slips to the southeast of New England today with fair weather. Clouds advance tonight and rain showers follow for Tuesday as a cold front moves in. This front will be parented by a low pressure area over the Great Lakes that won’t move much to the east, so the front will run out of steam as it comes through then hang up just off to the southeast. The parent low is likely to sink southward into the Ohio Valley during midweek and some of its energy will transfer to a new low developing on the front. This system should keep most of its rain offshore but may through more cloudiness across the region Wednesday. For the Thursday-Friday period, there is still some conflicting information regarding how far east the Ohio Valley low gets, and this has significant implications on the weather in southern New England, with obviously a further eastward position bringing a greater chance of wetter weather, and if high pressure is strong enough to keep this system at bay, we’d see a lesser rain risk but possibly a persistent easterly wind. This period of uncertainty is not really much of a surprise, as this is a common occurrence fueled by model inconsistency when we enter a transitional period in the weather pattern, that is, a changing regime. For now, there are no major changes to the forecast, but confidence beyond Tuesday remains lower than average.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 64-72. Wind calm morning, light S afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clouding over west to east. Rain showers arriving west to east toward dawn. Lows 51-60, coolest over interior valleys. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 62-70. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-58. Highs 66-74.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 50-58. Highs 62-70.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 52-60. Highs 64-72.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
A low pressure trough will likely be located southwest of New England while a high pressure ridge tries to build over New England and nearby eastern Canada, though the low may finally push in somewhere around October 4-5 with a better chance of rain again. This is a low confidence forecast in need of much future fine-tuning.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
A potential tropical system to the south may at least send some of its moisture northward toward or into the region early in the period with a rain risk. The trend should be for drier and initially cooler than eventually milder weather for mid through late period. Confidence remains low on this portion of the forecast as well.

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Sunday Forecast

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)…
High pressure centered to the northwest of New England today will slide across the region tonight and then drop to the south on Monday. The upper level pattern will be reconfiguring itself during this period and will begin to present a ridge off the East Coast and trough that tries to close off an upper low to the west of New England by the middle of next week. There are differing solutions on major forecast models as to what will happen with this closed off system. Some guidance takes it eastward giving the chance of rain to southern New England around next Thursday-Friday while other guidance holds it back to the west and never really brings the rain chance in. A case can be made for either scenario or anything in between, and in the interest of consistency for today I’m going to pretty much carry a similar forecast to yesterday, and revisit this “issue” going forward to try to fine tune the outlook. So understand that today’s outlook is up with a little less confidence that what I might consider average confidence for my own forecasting.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-69. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
TONIGHT: Clear. Frost likely interior areas especially valleys and low spots. Lows 28-34 deeper valleys, 34-40 most interior areas, 40-47 urban centers and immediate shore. Wind calm.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-72. Wind calm morning, light S afternoon.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 52-60. Highs 62-70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-54. Highs 66-74.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 50-58. Highs 62-70.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)…
Weather systems may not move much during this time with low pressure held to the southwest by a ridge of high pressure centered just east of New England. This would result in mainly fair and mild weather much of the period with a rain risk later in the period as system tried to move eastward somewhat.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
Will keep an eye on the tropics to the south as at least remnant moisture may be involved in a system that arrives from the south and west about the middle of the period, preceded by warm weather and followed by cooler/drier weather. Very low confidence in this portion of the forecast as much can change.

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Saturday Forecast

9:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)…
High pressure sits to the northwest of New England this weekend and delivers a cool northerly air flow for the first weekend of autumn. This high sinks down over the region Sunday night providing a solid opportunity for the first frost of the season over prone locations. High pressure will gradually sink off to the southeast by later Monday allowing a cold front to move through from the west during Tuesday. This will be followed by drying westerly flow by Wednesday as broad low pressure hangs back over the Great Lakes and nearby Canada.
TODAY: Early clouds depart the South Coast, otherwise sun mixed with some fair weather clouds. Highs 64-72. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 35-40 rural areas and outlying suburbs, 40-45 most locations, 45-50 urban centers and Cape. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-69. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Frost likely interior areas especially valleys and low spots. Lows 28-33 deeper valleys, 34-39 most interior areas, 40-45 urban centers and immediate shore. Wind calm.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-72. Wind calm morning, light S afternoon.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 52-60. Highs 62-70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-50. Highs 60-68.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)…
Milder with a few showers possible September 29 as a low pressure trough passes. Mild and dry September 30-October 3 as high pressure dominates.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)…
Pattern should place high pressure off the East Coast and low pressure in the Midwest and this will bring a couple of opportunities for rain during this period. Will have to watch for the addition of tropical moisture should a system far to the south get involved.

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Friday Forecast

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)…
Cold front crosses the region today and this evening with lots of clouds and the threat of showers and a few thunderstorms. Cooler northerly flow overtakes the region for the weekend as high pressure centers itself north northwest of New England. This high should drop down over the region by Monday and Tuesday with fair weather, a couple very cool mornings, but milder afternoons especially by Tuesday.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 77-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW later in the day.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 54-62. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-71. Wind N 10-20 MPH
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-50, mildest urban areas and Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Risk of frost interior areas early in the day. Lows 35-45, mildest urban areas and immediate coast. Highs 64-72.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 38-45. Highs 66-74.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)…
A little unsure how systems set up and of the resultant weather but current indications lead me to believe it warms up with a risk of a few showers at times, but no widespread beneficial rain. Will fine-tune this period with time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)…
A couple rain opportunities exist this period. Temperatures near to above normal.

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Thursday Forecast

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)…
High pressure will dominate today with another summer-feeling day for the first day of autumn. A cold front will drop through the region Friday but have limited moisture to work with, minimizing the shower threat. High pressure north of the region will send a cooler northerly fair flow in for the weekend and early next week.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Highs 78-86. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Early-day shower possible especially south of Boston. Breezy. Lows 55-63. Highs 64-71.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 42-51, mildest Cape Cod and urban areas. Highs 62-69.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-50, coolest interior valleys, mildest Cape Cod. Highs 64-71.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)…
Changeable weather during this time but no widespread beneficial rain. Dry/breezy/cool September 27, and dry weather with a warming trend September 28-30. Chance of some showers or rain October 1.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)…
A couple opportunities for wet weather during this period, though not looking for a switch to a wet pattern overall. Temperatures near to above normal.

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Wednesday Forecast

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)…
High pressure builds in and as the last day of summer today leads to the first day of autumn tomorrow, it will continue to feel like summer. The fall feel will have to wait for a cold front, which will not arrive until later Friday. This front will have limited moisture to work with and therefore, the threat of any showers or thunderstorms with it will be limited as well. Over the weekend, a cool and dry air mass will arrive from eastern Canada, and the first full weekend of autumn will feel quite seasonable if not a bit chilly to some.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-83. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Lows 55-63. Highs 78-86.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Early-day shower possible especially south of Boston. Breezy. Lows 55-63. Highs 64-71.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 42-51, mildest Cape Cod and urban areas. Highs 62-69.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)…
Changeable weather during this time but no widespread beneficial rain. Briefly milder with late-day showers September 26, dry/breezy/cool again September 27, and dry weather with a warming trend September 28-30.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
A couple opportunities for wet weather during this period, though not looking for a switch to a wet pattern overall. Temperatures near to above normal.

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Tuesday Forecast

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)…
One front dissipates along the New England South Coast today while a second one pushes eastward across the region. The latter will bring drier air be tonight but before that it will be a fairly humid day with fog and clouds to start, a few showers in southeastern MA, and then a clearing trend. High pressure dominates with fair and warm weather for midweek. A cold front approaches Friday, another warm day, with a chance of showers late. This front may be slow to exit initially on Saturday which may hold onto clouds after an early shower threat ends, but will be cooler.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning – areas of fog dissipating by mid morning, a few showers in southeastern MA through mid morning. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Humid but starting to dry out later. Highs 78-86. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Less humid. Lows 57-65. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-83. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-63. Highs 77-85.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 55-63. Highs 78-86.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early-day shower possible. Lows 55-63. Highs 64-71.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)…
Changeable weather during this time but no widespread beneficial rain. Look for dry/breezy/cool weather September 25, briefly milder with late-day showers September 26, dry/breezy/cool again September 27, and dry weather with a warming trend September 28-29.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)…
A brief shower risk early in the period and perhaps a risk of rain by the end of the period but overall dry and mild.

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