DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

As anticipated, snowflakes fell in a good portion of the WHW forecast area last evening, resulting in anything from just flakes in the air with no accumulation from Boston southward to a light coating in nearby suburbs to up to around 1 or 2 inches, even a few 3 inch amounts, in the outlying higher elevation locations. The low pressure area responsible for it formed on a passing cold front and intensified rapidly, pulling a lobe of moisture around its back side as the cold air was getting established, resulting in the snowfall for the region. If you had a barometer and looked at it, or looked up area pressures, you’d have seen that it fell pretty sharply yesterday late afternoon and evening, in response to the formation and rapid strengthening of the low pressure area. But now that low has exited and is moving away via the Canadian maritime provinces. We’ll be in the tight pressure gradient between it and high pressure approaching from the west today, so we’ll have blustery and cold weather, starting with a lot of clouds that will eventually give way to sun. The cold wind will continue tonight but ease up Sunday as high pressure builds across the region, and while it will be a cold day it won’t feel nearly as biting as today will. We’re in a pattern of quick-moving systems, and we’ll turn our attention to a clipper low pressure area moving through the Great Lakes and heading for NY State Sunday night into Monday, spawning a weak secondary low just south of New England that will then move right across the Cape Cod area early Monday. This system will bring a swath of precipitation to the region that is on the light side and not long-lasting. It’ll fall as mostly snow over interior areas and north of Boston, but mix/rain from Boston southward across the South Shore region and along the South Coast. Although areas that see rain may flip to some snowflakes before the precipitation pulls away by midday Monday, and the rest of the day will feature drier but blustery and chilly weather. High pressure slides across the region Monday night then out of the region on Tuesday as a weakening clipper low moves through the Great Lakes again. This system will already be moisture-starved and losing support so it may bring some clouds to our area Tuesday but that should be it with continued dry, cold conditions. A west northwesterly air flow will likely drive a cold front through the region Wednesday, reinforcing the chilly air to start December.

TODAY: Lots of clouds giving way to more sun. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Late evening and overnight light snow chance except mix/rain Boston, South Shore, and South Coast. Snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch possible mainly over interior areas. Lows 29-36.Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of light mix/snow favoring southern and eastern areas, then partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

While not “stormy” in the way we often think of it, the pattern will be active with a lot of disturbances coming along in a flow that will shift from west northwest to west southwest. A weak low pressure system will likey pass by with little fanfare early in the period. A low system with a little more moisture available targets a December 4 passage at which time we may briefly warm up to include rain showers, followed by a sharp chill-down and a snow shower possibility as it pulls away.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

A little more west to southwesterly air flow at upper levels and a little more activity in the jet stream results in better precipitation chances during this period. Temperatures variable, near normal overall.

C-19 Chat Post – November 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Time marches on. Thanksgiving is done. Black Friday has come, and so has a low pressure area, passing to the north, dragging a cold front through. This front will cause some rainfall this morning, but as it passes and cold air begins to rush in behind it, low pressure will form on the boundary just to our east, moving rapidly into the Gulf of Maine while intensifying. This will result in a wrap-around moisture area that will fall into air that is becoming cold enough to support frozen precipitation, maybe some sleet initially, but mainly snow, and one or two bands of that will likely come across southern NH and at least central and eastern MA during the early evening hours, possibly resulting in some minor accumulation, especially on unpaved surfaces. But if a snow burst is heavy enough we will have to watch for a quick accumulation on paved / cement surfaces as well which can cool rather quickly. Even without accumulation, wet ground is vulnerable to quick freezing where it does not have a chance to dry off from the wind even after the system departs and we are just windy, cold, and dry overnight. These will all be things to keep in mind if you need to travel for work, visits, or shopping today, or just want to be out taking a walk, because like me you’d walk in any kind of weather. 😉 The new storm will be well beyond the region by morning, but will serve, in combination with high pressure approaching from the west, to cause blustery and cold but dry conditions Saturday. On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves closer, while still being quite chilly it will be less windy and easier to be outside. After Saturday has a few passing low level fair weather cumulus clouds, Sunday’s sky will display some high and mid level clouds streaming in ahead of our next unsettled weather threat. This will consist of a low pressure area (clipper-type system) coming from south central Canada into the southern Great Lakes then heading for NY State while a weak secondary low forms off the northern Mid Atlantic and just south of New England. This will be a fast-moving system, and not that strong, so its impact will be minimal, though it will be cold enough for the precipitation to fall as snow in at least parts of the region, with a little better chance for mix/rain right on the coast and especially over southeastern MA, possibly ending as snow. This will be followed by a dry and cold day to end November on Tuesday…

TODAY: Overcast with periods of rain through late morning. Mostly cloudy midday on. Highs 41-48 this morning, then temperature dropping to the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely during the evening, except showers of sleet & rain nearer the South Coast which may end as snow. Snow accumulations of a coating to around 1 inch possible, with locally over 1 inch possible especially southern NH and northern MA. Patches of black ice forming quickly. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20, sometimes below 10.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Overnight light snow chance except rain or snow immediate coast and Cape Cod. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of light mix/snow favoring southern and eastern areas, then partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)

West northwest flow dominates the early days of December with somewhat variable temperatures averaging near to below normal in our region. Weak disturbances may bring a couple episodes of clouds and a few rain/snow showers, but hard to time these this far in advance. Either way, most of the time the weather will be fair in this pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)

A little more west to southeasterly air flow at upper levels and a little more activity in the jet stream means that precipitation chances go up during this period. Temperatures variable, near normal overall.

C-19 Chat Post – November 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

A Happy Thanksgiving to all! Fifty years ago, on Thanksgiving 1971, it was quite a rainy one with Boston’s highest Thanksgiving Day rain total of 2.60 inches being recorded. Well it won’t be anything like that today, nor will it be like Boston’s snowiest (4.4 inches in 1989), coldest (11F in 1973), or warmest (71F in 1941). It will be one of the nicest, with high pressure bringing fair weather and a chilly start evolving into a milder day as sun gives way to some cloudiness as a warm front approaches the region. But this front won’t bring anything more than clouds as it goes by this evening. For Black Friday, we’ll have a strong cold front approaching the region in the morning when most of if not all of the region will be impacted by rain showers, but this front is going to be chugging right along and pass through the region by early afternoon. As this happens, a wave of low pressure will be starting to form on it in the Gulf of Maine and rapidly intensifying. This may enhance the chance of snow showers especially across southern NH and MA as the cold air rushes in. There may be a small accumulation of snow and some icy spots due to partial melting on initially warm ground and re-freezing as temperatures drop and surfaces chill down early Friday evening. Blustery and colder conditions will continue through Friday night and into Saturday, but it will be dry. High pressure moves closer to the region by Sunday which will still be a chilly day but with less wind. Clouds will start to appear ahead of the next unsettled weather system, and once again we have a situation where computer guidance has shown anything from a weak system with a light rain/mix/snow event to a full-fledged snowstorm for parts of the region. Early leaning from me, a minor to moderate system clipping the region Monday, odds favoring rain in coastal areas mix/snow for inland areas. Fine-tuning will be done with time…

TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy morning with widespread rain showers,. Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers favoring southern NH and northern MA afternoon. Highs 41-48 morning, falling into the 30s afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Snow showers early evening may leave a minor accumulation in the hills of central MA and across southern NH and northeastern MA. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain and snow possible. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain and snow possible. Highs 37-44. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Near to below normal temperatures. Watching December 1-2 for a possible minor event that may include some snow.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Overall westerly flow, but enough trough may appear to bring a precipitation event of note around mid period. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – November 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

I had a dream that the GFS run from November 13 was right after all and despite 12-hour forecasts of a clear and cold morning we woke up to a foot and a half of snow in the Boston area with a strong northerly wind! I’m kidding of course – this was the GFS’s dream back then and it may be dreaming again, but we’ll re-visit that a little later in this blog post. First, we do have a clear and cold morning after a windy and cold night. I could hear neighbor’s barrels (it’s trash day here on Woods Hill) going down in the middle of the night. Thankfully in our area we don’t have much of a mess. My across-the-street neighbor’s barrel went over and 2 bags exited it, but thankfully stayed tightly tied, and I just had to pick up the barrel and put the 2 bags back in. Those that can forecast the wind might have waited until 6:30 a.m. to drag the stuff to curbside. I waited. And now 10 barrels full of autumn yard debris, 4 bins full of recycling, and 1 lonely trash barrel sit there in a 5-15 MPH breeze, not facing the fate of the take-down and empty-out. Timing is everything! 😉 And now you know more than you ever wanted about my trash strategy and how many bins and barrels I had to put out, but we can move on. A great day weatherwise today for travel and even outdoor activities as we keep the chill but lose the wind with high pressure moving much closer. There were 2 high school football Thanksgiving games at Fenway Park in Boston last evening and the wind chill was pretty rough there. Tonight, there are two more, and I will be at the second one, watching the 4th oldest rivalry in the state (Woburn vs. Winchester) under a clear sky and light wind with temperatures in the 30s. Not too bad compared to some of the Thanksgiving morning weather we’ve seen for these games, including a recent teens with wind chill below zero game. Brr!! And by the way, go Woburn! High pressure slides offshore on Thursday and we will see the sky start to fill with more clouds as the day goes on, but it will be a dry and milder day, excellent for all the morning football games and running races, and local visits for the holiday. After a chilly start, we’ll recover nicely with most areas going over 50 for highs. Then comes our one unsettled day of this 5-day forecast period – Friday, or “Black Friday” for the shopping among us. Low pressure will pass north of our region but drag a warm front followed by a cold front west-to-east across the region. While this system’s warm front will generate limited precipitation, its warm sector will have a bit more for the cold front to work on, but not enough to result in a significant rainfall event, just a lighter one with a couple rounds of rain showers before the cold front pushes through from west to east from midday to mid afternoon. This should put an end to the rain threat. That precipitation will exit before the cold air is in enough to end it as snow anywhere in the WHW forecast area, but we may see a passing snow flurry a little later in the day or during the evening as a new cold air mass arrives from Canada via the Great Lakes. This will set us up for a cold and breezy Saturday on the southern periphery of a low pressure circulation, but with dry weather, and a continued chilly but more tranquil Sunday as a narrow area of high pressure makes its way into our region.

TODAY: 100% sunshine. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing later.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with a few episodes of rain and rain showers morning-midday. Breaking clouds later. Highs 41-48 morning, falling below 40 by day’s end. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W from west to east.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow flurry early. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Oh look! A couple runs of one medium range model has a more important winter storm for November 29, and it has little or no support from other guidance and generally no support from its own ensemble guidance. That means it’s definitely gonna happen, right?! Not so fast. Where have we seen this before? Yes, I have talked about November 29-30 being a period to watch for a potential event for many days in the blog now, and that is still true, regarding November 29 as I am able to bring the timing a bit more into focus. It would be unwise to talk this system up from a forecasting standpoint right now, given you extract the actual information I just presented to you in a snarky way. Yes, a model has shown it for 2 runs (we won’t even discuss snow amounts it tried to forecast on one of the runs), and no it doesn’t have much support from any other guidance. What this tells me is that we have to continue to watch this potential system, and that our most likely impact from it would be a minor to moderate rain/mix/snow event, with snow most likely away from the coast, occurring November 29. This is day 6. It would be highly unreasonable to try to be any more specific about that right now. Beyond that threat, look for a fair weather end to November, a frontal system bringing a rain/snow shower threat around December 1, and fair, seasonably chilly weather to follow that.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Indications are for a west northwest flow dominating the weather overall. A progressive trough / clipper system may bring a rain/mix/snow threat around mid period. Temperatures average fairly close to normal for the stretch but with some typical variability.

C-19 Chat Post – November 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

We’ll be feeling the chill of the air today, and that air will be moving in a gusty bluster under a bright low-angle November sun. While it may be cold if you have to walk on part of your commute or pre-Thanksgiving errands, this is good travel weather because there are no storms about, nor will there be any serious weather issues around for quite some time. Our only two minor “interruptions” will come tonight when a few snow showers may occur on Cape Cod and more regionally Friday as a low pressure passes north of the region with a warm front / cold front combo coming through with some rain shower activity and perhaps a few snow showers behind the cold front later. Between those minor events we’ll have two very nice days Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day courtesy high pressure moving across the region. Wednesday will start quite cold, but with less wind than today it won’t feel all that bad during the day. Thursday will be a milder day as we get some return flow on the back side of the high pressure area. After Friday’s system, we’ll have a chilly day with a gusty wind but dry weather Saturday as we will be in a northwesterly flow of polar air from Canada.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below freezing much of the time.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except Cape Cod clouds and a few snow showers possible. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the morning.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W-SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a brief period of light rain in the morning followed by few midday rain showers, then variably cloudy afternoon with a slight chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Highs 41-48 morning, falling into the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, WNW 10-20 MPH and gusty afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow flurry early. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Dry, chilly, lighter wind but still a bit breezy to finish off Thanksgiving Weekend November 28. Continuing to watch November 29-30 for passing low pressure. Still leaning on the system being shunted to the south with no more than a few snow/rain showers or a period of light precipitation. Fair, seasonable weather to start December based on current pattern projection.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Indications are for below normal precipitation and near to slightly below normal temperatures for the early days of December with high pressure the main controller in a west northwesterly air flow.

C-19 Chat Post – November 23 2021