Summer Then Spring

7:28AM

SUMMARY…
The feel of Summer in the last days of Meteorological Spring, then the feel of Spring in the first days of Meteorological Summer. Typical New England. No major changes at this time from what was discussed in the last entry. The Summer preview got established on Tuesday and will continue for the rest of this week, though there will be a few changes during this time with a weak cold front bringing some showers and thunderstorms into the region mainly well north and west of Boston today and into most of the region Thursday, though this does not look like it will become a widespread beneficial rain. We’ll also see a brief cool down and dry push of air Friday before the feel of Summer returns Saturday. By Sunday another cold front will arrive and this one may produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms. As June begins, the first couple days of it (Monday and Tuesday next week) look much cooler.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm late-day north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 65-70 South Coast and 70s just inland from there, 80s elsewhere, may reach 90 in a few locations. More humid. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mid to late afternoon well north and west of Boston, late afternoon and evening close to Boston and to the southeast. Humid. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 60-65. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and showers. Lows 55-60. Highs 60-65.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 65-70.

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The Three Fives

9:30PM

NOTE…
If you tend to just read the most recent post, be aware that there were two posts made Monday evening. Don’t miss the post containing the outlook for Summer!

ANNOUNCEMENT…
Starting on Monday June 1, I’m going to introduce a slight change to the blog format. There will be a daily (or almost daily) forecast post which will have a discussion about current and upcoming weather, a detailed forecast for days 1 through 5, an outlook with less detail but an overall idea of what to expect during days 6 through 10, and a very brief look ahead about what the expected pattern may result in for days 11 through 15. This is a format I am familiar with and worked with for many years, and I’m going to give it a try here. So these forecasts will be delivered in 3 groups of 5 days, with obviously the most focus being on the first 5 days. This format change will be seen only in how the text is arranged. No other changes are coming in the near-term.

SUMMARY…
A warm front is pushing across southern New England and will introduce a Summer preview for the next few days with a warm and more humid southwesterly flow. A narrow area of unstable air will work into southwestern New England early Tuesday and may reach areas further east later in the day. This will result in some spotty pop up showers and possible thunderstorms. Widespread activity is not likely. This area of instability will shift a little further northwest by Wednesday, resulting in the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms being over western and northern New England, leaving southeastern areas with much less of a chance to see anything. By Thursday, a weak cold front will try to push into the region, increasing the risk for showers and thunderstorms, though I still don’t feel that widespread activity is likely. A break in the action is expected Friday as narrow high pressure arrives, but this may give way to another front on Saturday with a return of a shower and thunderstorm threat. A bit more of a battle may set up Sunday and Monday as May ends and June begins with high pressure from the north trying to battle more humid air to the south. It remains to be seen how this plays out exactly, other than increasing the chance for unsettled weather which will be reflected in a lower confidence forecast below.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few areas of very light to light rain mainly before midnight. Lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening, especially northern MA and southern NH. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s South Coast, upper 70s to middle 80s elsewhere. More humid. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible north central MA and southwestern NH late. Highs in the 70s South Coast, 80s to near 90 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

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Woods Hill Weather Summer Outlook

Back in November, I put forth an outlook for the upcoming Winter, which indicated a mild start and below normal snow for the early part of the season, then more snow, especially in February, but still falling just shy of or barely making the seasonal average in most of the region. Well, the forecast started out ok, but I need not remind you what happened beginning on January 24…

Regardless of success or failure of forecasting, especially in the longer range, we forge onward and try it again and again. It’s just the nature of the science to want to try to get it right, but knowing that failure is going to be a part of the effort. The aim in this is to learn something from each failure and apply it going forward.

So now it’s time to go forward and look ahead at the upcoming Summer of 2015. This will be my fairly non-technical outlook for the months of June, July, and August, otherwise known as “Meteorological Summer”. My intention is to add outlooks for Autumn and Spring as well.

Leading up to Summer…
We’ve seen the pattern transition recently into one that has feature more upper level ridging in the eastern US, allowing above normal temperatures to be more dominant during the month of May. There have been interruptions, especially from the notorious “back-door” cold fronts which introduce cool marine air into at least coastal and eastern portions of New England, and sometimes penetrate much further inland. We’ve also had a couple shots of cool air from Canada, with one such just having visited at the end of last week. During all of this we have been running drier to much drier than average, with up to 5-inch rainfall deficits in southeastern New England and higher fire danger. Only a subtle shift in the overall pattern during the next week may allow for some increase in shower activity, but I’m not seeing a shift to an overall wet pattern as far out as I can see. The main player in this current pattern is El Nino, which is becoming more established after a long wait for it to finally arrive.

June…
The pattern of May continues through mid month with warmer than normal days winning out over cooler than normal ones by about 2 to 1, with interruptions in warmth coming again in the form of a few back-door cold fronts from the Gulf of Maine and a few genuine polar fronts from Canada. Later June is likely to be the warmest, relative to normal, as a high pressure ridge pokes into the Great Lakes and brings frequent warm to hot west to northwest winds. We will have to watch for a couple episodes of northwest flow disturbances which can bring thunderstorms, sometimes strong to severe, in this type of pattern. Despite several shower and storm threats, rainfall is likely to continue below normal.

July…
The warm to hot and mainly dry pattern of late June will persist into early July. After this, the mid Summer version of the pattern of May and the first part of June will likely return, with more variability, but still overall drier than normal conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures.

August…
A weak mean trough is likely to replace the ridge in the Midwest and Great Lakes while high pressure is a little stronger off the East Coast. For this area we will likely see some transitions between warm to hot and humid weather from the offshore high, and cooler/drier interludes from fronts sent eastward and southeastward from southern Canada and the upper Midwest. Despite these changes, I still feel that the drier than normal trend will be the rule. As always, however, we need to keep an eye on the tropics at this time in the season…

Hurricane Season…
Did somebody mention the tropics? It’s pretty simple this time. El Nino tropical seasons most often result in fewer than average storms. But that doesn’t mean anybody is immune to being impacted by one or more during the season. We’ll have to keep our eyes open, because despite the fact that the season will likely be quieter than normal, the weather pattern will find itself able to deliver storms toward the East Coast, should they occur at just the right time. So we should not let our guard down despite it being an El Nino year. There is also always the chance that the El Nino conditions which tend to limit Atlantic activity could weaken sooner than expected and that could allow for more storm development. This is something to monitor and update as the season gets going.

“Why did you ignore September? It’s still Summer!” I know I know. Fine. September will probably be quite warm, at least to start, with an established drought very possibly ongoing. Will a renegade tropical system help alleviate dryness? Time will tell.

Posted in Weather | 9 Comments

This Week

9:37AM

COMMENTARY / SUMMARY…
Full discussion on next entry. No big changes. Apologies for the abbreviated and belated post that is usually “The Week Ahead”. Format change coming soon anyway. Will post that along with a Summer outlook this evening! THIS MOST IMPORTANT THING today. Remember them all this Memorial Day. We can never repay what they have done for us.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of very light rain mainly north central MA and southern NH. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of very light rain early. Lows 55-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-80 South Coast, 80s to around 90 elsewhere.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Lows 65-70. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s, cooler South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s, cooler South Coast.

Posted in Weather | 38 Comments

Memorial Day Weekend Update

7:16AM

SUMMARY…
No major changes at this time. Just making a few adjustments to sky cover in the forecast segments, removing a couple shower chances and adding a new day 7 since well…the old day 7 is now day 6. A full update will be posted later tonight or first thing Monday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s to around 80 elsewhere. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of very light rain late day mainly north central MA and southern NH. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 60-65. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-80 South Coast, 80s to around 90 elsewhere.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Lows 65-70. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs around 80, cooler South Coast.

Posted in Weather | 61 Comments

Memorial Day Weekend Forecast

7:43PM

COMMENTARY…
Here it is, the opening long weekend to the Summer tourism and recreation season, or at least that’s what popular belief is. Summer may be a few weeks away from its astronomical beginning, but for most people, Summer arrived the moment they freed themselves up for this weekend, if they were lucky enough to do so. There is a built-in dilemma that some people may recognize, regarding the weather, at this time. Most people want great weather for outdoor activity, which means little rain and near or above normal temperatures for this time of year. And this season, after enduring the Winter we had, the desire for such conditions is especially strong among the majority of folks. The dilemma: It’s dry. We need rain. Obviously, no matter what you want for weather, the atmosphere is going to do what it’s going to do. So using that logic, why feel guilty for wanting good weather this weekend? And most of it will be very nice. If that’s the case, then just enjoy it…and be safe!

SUMMARY…
A late shot of very chilly air is heading in on a gusty northwest wind this Friday evening and will make tonight and the early hours of Saturday feel rather cold for late May. A frost threat exists in the valleys especially in the I-495 belt. Most of the region will be protected from frost by an active breeze, which will not allow perfect radiational cooling to set up. Radiational cooling takes place when wind is light or calm and the heat escapes upward. The more dense, cold air stays near the ground and pools in the valleys. A gusty breeze keeps this from happening by keeping the air mixed. Think of a glass of water and oil, which would separate with the more dense water going to the bottom and the less dense oil going to the top. If you keep stirring it with a spoon, it won’t separate so easily. That gusty breeze will continue into the day Saturday, though temperatures will recover to respectable levels after the cold start, and this will occur with 100% sunshine. By Sunday, the high pressure which brought the chill in will sink to the south and a more west to southwest wind will allow for a more significant warm up under a mostly sunny sky. While we are enjoying 2 sunny days, there will be heat and humidity building across the US Southeast and pushing into the Mid Atlantic States. The leading edge of this air mass will approach southern New England on Memorial Day Monday, and the result will be a day that does not stay bright and sunny like the 2 preceding it. Clouds will increase. Though most indications are that it will stay dry, almost any time you have this set up you have to watch for some patches of very light rain at the very least, so keep that in mind. If it were to occur, it would probably be later in the day, as timing looks now. And then comes the genuine Summer preview once the warm front passes. Tuesday through Thursday of next week should resemble July with warm to hot air, more humidity, and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms, though it is not likely that any widespread beneficial rain will occur, just scattered areas that may get some. Looking way ahead, a cold front may move closer to the region by Friday with perhaps a better shower/t-storm risk.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-40 rural/suburban areas, 40-45 coast/urban areas, exception in sheltered valleys where 30-35 and scattered frost may occur. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with gusts above 20 MPH, but under 10 MPH in sheltered valleys.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s interior, around 50 coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s to around 80 elsewhere. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of very light rain late day. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a daily risk of mainly afternoon showers / t-storms. Rain-free most of the time. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s to near 90 elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

Posted in Weather | 43 Comments

Spring Swing

7:27AM

SUMMARY…
We’ll see some significant temperatures swings in the days ahead, but the overall pattern will remain on the drier side. There are no big changes to the previous update. Weak high pressure dominates today, giving way to a low passing south of the region tonight and early Friday which may bring some rain to southeastern MA and parts of RI. A cold front drops down from the north during Friday bringing a threat of showers and introducing a quick shot of very cool air to start out the Memorial Day Weekend early Saturday. Quick temperature recovery follows by Sunday, the Monday holiday, and early next week, but with some risk of showers and thunderstorms by Monday into the middle of next week as a frontal system will be in the vicinity.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy – most sun to north, most clouds to south. Highs 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late South Coast. Lows in the 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain early southeastern MA. Chance of showers midday and afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 33-44, coolest interior valleys. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-52, coolest interior valleys. Highs in the 70s.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 55-65. Highs 75-85.

Posted in Weather | 73 Comments

The Bad In The Good

1:01AM

COMMENTARY…
This weather pattern is good if you like nice weather. But this weather pattern is bad in the sense that we continue to be quite dry across southeastern New England, despite some areas of showers on Tuesday. Those showers were simply not enough to be of any significant benefit. So, what is coming up now? This forecast goes out into early next week and includes the entire Memorial Day Weekend. Let’s take a look.

SUMMARY…
Upper level low pressure passes across New England today while a brisk westerly flow transports dry air into the region. Sun will share the sky with clouds. The jet stream will be hanging out close by into late week and this will allow a couple disturbances passing south of the region to spread some cloudiness across the sky at times. This represents a change from the previous thinking that Thursday would be a sunny day. Everything will be shunted to the south by Friday as a cold front drops across New England, and this will set us up for a decent Memorial Day Weekend. But the weekend itself will feature some contrast, as some areas will be as cold as the 30s to start Saturday morning and may end up near 80 before Sunday is over. This will take place as the core of a chilly air mass arrives Friday night and exits later Saturday, with a more significant warm-up on Sunday. By Monday, a front may be nearby but may be moisture-starved, so optimistically the forecast will include clouds but leave rain out for now. By Tuesday, a shot of warm and somewhat humid air may battle with an approaching front for a shower and thunderstorm threat.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 62-67 except 67-72 interior southeastern MA. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 43-48 interior, 48-53 coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers midday and afternoon. Lows around 50. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s interior to lower 40s coast. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs in the 70s.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Lows around 60. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs around 80.

Posted in Weather | 36 Comments

Warm Front Cold Front

7:31AM

SUMMARY…
Low pressure passes north of New England today, first dragging a warm front across the region with areas of showers through midday, followed by a cold front with an additional shower or thunderstorm possible in some areas at the end of the day or this evening. High pressure approaches as low pressure moves away Wednesday and the air flow between them will generate a gusty breeze, and upper level low pressure still crossing the region will promote some diurnal cloud development, though overall it will be a nice day! Even nicer weather Thursday will result from high pressure moving in. A weak disturbance may bring a few showers as it swings through from west to east on Friday. High pressure returns for a good portion of the Memorial Day Weekend, however a front may be in the vicinity for part of Sunday night or Monday preventing perfection. Despite wishes of good weather as we head into the first long weekend of the warm season or the unofficial start of Summer, we are in need of rain as it has been quite dry. Other than what falls today in spotty areas, not much is expected any time soon.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy with occasional showers through midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny mid to late afternoon. Mostly cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms possible especially along and south of the Mass Pike in southern MA and RI. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s, coolest South Coast. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 60s to near 70. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 47-54. Highs 67-74.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 50-57. Highs 64-72.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 38-47, coolest interior valleys. Highs 64-70.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows 42-52, coolest interior valleys. Highs 68-80, coolest South Coast.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

Posted in Weather | 100 Comments

The Week Ahead Plus

10:00PM

SUMMARY…
This is one of those rare times were we go out 8 days and that must mean that next weekend is a “long weekend”. It is! The unofficial start of Summer, a.k.a. Memorial Day Weekend. I’ll do my best to give you an idea of what to expect through then. Let’s start with tonight as we get a weather change in the form of a deck of low clouds and areas of fog rolling in off the ocean via the Gulf of Maine, in response to a wind flowing in from the northeast. There may be some areas of drizzle as well. This persists into the day Monday but some drying from the east may promote at least partial clearing as the day goes on. Low clouds redevelop at night as a light southeast flow takes over. Tuesday will be a more humid day with a couple rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms as a disturbance and front traverse the region. By Wednesday, a shot of cooler/drier air will arrive from Canada with a sun/cloud mix. High pressure will bring fair weather Thursday. A disturbance may produce a few passing showers on Friday before high pressure builds in and brings fair weather for at least the first two thirds of the Memorial Day Weekend Saturday and Sunday. By the holiday itself on Monday we may be dealing with showers/thunderstorms from an approaching frontal system. It’s very difficult to get 3 straight fair weather days any time in Spring in New England, even in a dry pattern.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Low clouds spreading across the region from northeast to southwest along with patchy fog and drizzle overnight. Lows 46-54. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Low overcast, areas of fog and drizzle to start. Partial clearing east to west during the afternoon. Highs 60-68, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-58. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s coast, 70s interior. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-55. Highs 64-72.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 50-58. Highs 66-74.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 52-60. Highs 63-70.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 50-58. High 67-75.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 52-60. High 72-80.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 56-64. Highs 68-75.

Posted in Weather | 62 Comments