DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)
We will remain in a cool northwesterly air flow today between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure southwest of New England, but this time we will have fewer clouds than yesterday and no threat of rain showers, just fair autumn weather. The fair weather will continue Wednesday and after a cool start you’ll notice a nice temperature moderation as the wind turns more westerly and the coolest air exits. As high pressure slips off the Middle Atlantic Coast, low pressure begins a trek from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, and its warm front will cross the region early Thursday putting us into an even warmer air mass that day, before its cold front crosses the region during Friday. Both of these fronts present minor rain threats. The latter will deliver a new cool air mass to the region starting later Friday, but it may hang near the coast or just offshore for a while to start the weekend, and a wave of low pressure moving along it may bring some additional wet weather to start the weekend. I am not expecting this to be a long lasting or heavy rain event, and it may stay offshore.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 41-48. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with brief light rain possible. Partly to mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, mainly during the morning. Highs 60-67. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)
A northerly air flow transports chilly air across the region October 24 and upper level low pressure brings some clouds but any rain shower chance seems small with mostly a dry and blustery autumn day to end the weekend. High pressure is expected to bring fair weather October 25-26, cool to start, then moderating temperatures. The high slips off to the east and the next low pressure area moves through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada later in the period with milder air here and eventually a rain shower threat as a a frontal system approaches.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)
Continued uncertainty regarding the pattern evolution. Guidance continues to be split between a blocking set-up with high pressure in eastern Canada and low pressure over or just south of the US Northeast States and an alternate scenario which continues a more progressive west to east flow pattern. For now I continue the idea of the westerly flow to start, and a slow evolution toward the blocking set-up. There should be at least one opportunity for unsettled weather, but it can also remain southwest and south of the region depending on the orientation of features.