Saturday July 31 2021 Forecast (8:57AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

It may be mid summer still, but this final day of July has started out almost with a hint of fall in the air with a nice cool air mass in place and a gusty breeze picking up again. The breeze will settle back down and the temperature will climb enough to remind you it’s still summertime, though it will be a cooler-than-normal day, but nice and dry for enjoying outdoors. A wind shift to south brings in more humidity and eventually we see more clouds on Sunday as two systems approach the region, a trough to the west and low pressure to the south. It looks like our greatest chance of rainfall comes Sunday night, but will be limited as we are basically between the two disturbances. The southern low brings the best chance of rainfall to the South Coast region while the western trough brings a shower threat to areas mostly north and west of I-95 Sunday night, but that trough line will swing through the region Monday and still may produce a brief shower or thunderstorm as it passes by. Otherwise Monday’s trend will be for slightly drier but seasonably warm air. High pressure is going to become more established off the US East Coast in the early days of August and by Tuesday and Wednesday we’ll find ourselves in a south southwesterly air flow of warmth and somewhat higher humidity, but likely absent of any rainfall.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 52-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a brief passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

A southerly air flow and increased tropical moisture brings a better chance of shower activity during the August 5-6 period before high pressure strengthens and keeps us warm and fairly humid but with mostly rain-free weather for the August 7-8 weekend and on through period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

Transition back toward more westerly flow into the middle of August probably means another round of unsettled weather somewhere during this period, favoring early to mid period. No major temperature departures from normal are indicated at this time.

Friday July 30 2021 Forecast (9:33AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Our latest bout of wet weather now out of our way, we look ahead and more changing weather is in store for southeastern New England as we finish off July and begin August. These final two days of July will feature comfortable air, if not a bit chilly, especially first thing tomorrow morning when, if you’re up and outside, you may wonder if it’s the end of August instead of July. First though, we have a pleasant day today with high temps in the 70s to near 80 and low humidity, however that pleasantness may be interrupted in a few locations by a passing shower, even brief downpour, triggered by a disturbance and pool of cold air aloft passing through the region – a weaker version of what we saw exactly one week ago. This system exits by evening and we see a clearing sky and diminishing breeze, allowing the temperatures to fall quite easily since dew points will also be quite low. Typical cool spots are heading for low temperatures of under 50, while the majority of the region bottoms out in the lower to middle 50s with some of the urban centers in the upper 50s – all quite cool for the final morning of July. But we’ll recover back to the 70s with lots of sun, a few clouds, and continued low humidity Saturday so it will be a very nice summer day despite the autumn-feeling start. It’s onto August on Sunday, a day that looks pretty decent now as we see the wind shift to south ahead of an approaching trough. This will warm it up and bring the humidity up a bit, but also the timing suggests that any threat of showers will hold off until nighttime, with a rain-free daytime – good news if you have outdoor plans. This trough will pull offshore by Monday which will be a seasonably warm day with fair weather and a sun/cloud mix, and then high pressure will build into the region with lots of sun and warmth along with moderate humidity for Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and possibly brief downpours. Highs 74-81. Dew point falling from the lower 60s to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 44-51 rural and lower elevation areas, 51-58 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Dew point falling into 40s. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 52-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

Upper level flow becoming weaker and more southerly during this period. Seasonable warmth and somewhat higher humidity will be more dominant. Middle of the period is greatest chance for shower activity when we’ll have to watch a disturbance from the south.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

Transition back toward more westerly flow by the middle of August probably means another round of unsettled weather somewhere during this period, favoring mid period. No major temperature departures from normal are indicated at this time.

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Thursday July 29 2021 Forecast (9:44AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Low pressure approaches from the west today, but a good part of the day will be rain-free other than a few potential pop up showers mainly west of the I-95 belt due to increased moisture combined with daytime heating. The main unsettled weather with this system will occur tonight as an occluded front will be passing through most of the region. The triple-point will be passing in the vicinity of the South Coast, but may remain just to the south, and this is important for determining the chance for severe weather in that region. A strong disturbance coming through from the Midwest brings atmospheric conditions conducive to severe weather including rotating thunderstorms, but it appears most of this and possibly all of this volatility may pass just to the south, but must be monitored closely. Friday, this system will be exiting early in the day and we’ll get into a drier northwesterly air flow, but upper level low pressure crossing the region can still trigger a shower or even brief thunderstorm, a couple of which may produce small hail, but I don’t expect as much of this as we had in a similar but stronger set-up last Friday. Just keep in mind that a quick interruption may occur if you have outdoor plans. The coolest air in quite some time will come into the region Friday night, and if you’re an early riser on Saturday it may feel more like late August to you than the end of July, but Saturday itself will be a very nice day with a temperature recovery and nice dry air. We say hello to August on Sunday while watching for another system approaching from the west, current timing of which suggest that most shower activity will occur Sunday night, leaving most of the daylight hours of Sunday, as it approaches, and Monday, as it moves away, on the dry side.

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible mainly west of I-95 midday on. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm mostly west of I-95 evening. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms, especially south of I-90, overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N. Potentially stronger winds in any thunderstorms near the South Coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible midday and afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 50-57. Dew point falling to upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the afternoon favoring western areas. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

A weakening of the dominant west northwest air flow, becoming a weaker west to southwest flow as there will also be a tendency for more high pressure off the US East Coast. This opens the door for higher humidity and warmth but no major sustained heat. One boundary should stay to the north with showers and thunderstorms more to the north of our region, but another boundary to the south may lift northward and increase the chance for showers/storms as we get to later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

A continuation of more dominant warmth and humidity but with the additional of more shower and thunderstorm opportunities as a frontal boundary hangs around close to the region.

Wednesday July 28 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A lot is going on with our weather pattern these days so let’s go through it. Yesterday’s higher humidity, warmth, showers, and thunderstorms are gone, but not before a swatch of stronger storms with scattered wind damage occurred, especially along and either side of I-90 (just a bit further south than I had expected the axis of stronger storms to be). A cold front has passed by and is exiting via the South Coast early this morning, with lingering cloudiness and still a few showers possible up until mid morning. This afternoon, the arrival of dry air will help to clear the sky, but a north to northeast breeze will also transport rather cool air into the region, as much as 20 to 25 degrees cooler than the high temperatures of Tuesday. So if you have outdoor plans , the afternoon is your driest time and the evening will be rather cool for late July. We see a temperature rebound a little bit on Thursday but this will come with a bit of a price, in the form of more clouds and the threat of a shower or two as a warm front moves into and across the region. This will be followed by a cold front coming through that evening and night, parented by low pressure passing north of the region. This cold front will bring the risk of showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the evening. Right now I’m not expecting a repeat of what took place last night, but we may have to watch for a few stronger storms. Friday, drier air arrives again, but some upper level energy and a pool of cold air aloft may trigger a few pop up showers and thunderstorms. That will be out of here by Friday night and set us up for a dry and pleasant final day of July, courtesy Canadian high pressure. With moderate confidence I tell you that the first day of August on Sunday should be seasonably warm and more humid but with a chance of showers and thunderstorms are some point during the day, depending on the timing of an approaching disturbance and front.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered to isolated showers until mid morning followed by increasing sunshine north to south. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening then some clouds returning during the overnight. Patchy ground fog forming late at night mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds but partial sunshine and just a chance of a shower. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms, mainly during the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog forming late. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

A weakening of the dominant west northwest air flow, becoming a weaker west to southwest flow as there will also be a tendency for more high pressure off the US East Coast. This opens the door for higher humidity, warmth but no major sustained heat, and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, but limited. It looks like the boundary between this and cooler air in Canada will stay mostly to the north of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

A continuation of more dominant warmth and humidity but with the additional of more shower and thunderstorm opportunities as a frontal boundary hangs around close to the region.

Tuesday July 27 2021 Forecast (9:17AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

Some up and down temperatures and weather as we head through the final 5 days of July, but if you are on vacation this week, overall it’s a pretty decent week, which started out yesterday with smokey sunshine, a bit of heat, but manageable humidity. As high pressure sits offshore today the humidity will up-tick as the temperatures stay quite warm, but a cold front moving this way is set to bring a significant change. If you have outdoor plans, such as the beach, today turns out quite decent as most of the cloud cover and the shower / t-storm threat holds off until the end of the day and especially this evening. The thicker plume of wildfire smoke (from Canada and the western US) has moved on and we are left with some thinner smoke today, and then the plume will be pushed south of the region by tomorrow. We may see it come back marginally at times later this week, but not to the extent we had it yesterday. We will probably see two rounds of showers and thunderstorms, one with a pre-frontal trough, with activity concentrated mostly north of I-90, but some still possible to the south, and another round with the actual cold front, a little more spread out along the boundary as showers with embedded thunderstorms a little bit later in the evening. If there are going to be severe thunderstorms, they will most likely occur with the first batch, favoring areas north of I-90 in the 6PM to 9PM window, with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. The cold front will still be crossing southeastern MA and RI when we get to Wednesday morning so the day may start with a lot of clouds and a few showers around, especially in those locations, but during the day we end up with a fair amount of sunshine taking over on a drier and cooler north to northeast air flow, as high pressure moves toward the region from Canada. This high slips right across the area Wednesday night, which will be tranquil with a lighter wind and pleasantly cool mid summer air, but watch for some fog to form over inland locations at lower elevations where the temperature can easily fall to match the dew point, even with the dew points being down somewhat. I’ve been talking about Thursday as a day with an unsettled weather threat, and that is still the case, but as it stands now the warm front that comes along first doesn’t look like it will have a lot of support for activity, so just expecting a varying amount of cloudiness but a generally rain-free daytime, with most of the shower and potential thunderstorm activity holding off until evening or night with an approaching and passing cold front. The humidity will come back up a bit during Thursday as the warm front leads an air mass into the region from the southwest but behind the cold front comes another shot of drier air for Friday. With some upper level energy set to cross the region on Friday I can’t rule out some pop up showers or thunderstorms, but they should be generally isolated. A small area of high pressure is expected to bring nice weather to the region for the final day of July on Saturday.

TODAY: Lots of sun filtered by smoke into afternoon giving way to more clouds later in the day. A shower or thunderstorm possible mainly southwestern NH and central MA by late afternoon. Highs 81-88 except cooler South Coast especially Cape Cod. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, most widespread north of I-90 and more scattered to the south. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling slowly through 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds and a chance of showers southeastern MA and RI until mid morning, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point near 60 then falling through 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy ground fog forming late. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50 then rising through 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Only a slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog forming late. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

August arrives, typically the month with perhaps the weakest upper level steering on average, and we’ll start it with a continuation of but probably also a weakening of the west to northwest air flow driving the pattern. This does allow seasonal humidity to spike ahead of drier intrusions from Canada. Current timing indicates these disturbances will be passing by about every other day, so we could see shower and thunderstorm threats about August 1, 3, and 5, but with most of the 5-day period being rain-free. Temperatures would be variable but not feature major swings, and would average out to fairly close to normal in this pattern. As always, day-to-day details can’t be determined this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

A weakening of the westerly flow aloft and more high pressure off the US East Coast allows warmth and humidity to become a little more dominant. There will still be a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, and we have to watch the boundary between the warm/humid air and cooler/dry air in Canada, which for now I think will be mostly to our north. Should it end up further south, we look at going into a wetter pattern, but not expecting this to set up like that at this time.