Wednesday July 28 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A lot is going on with our weather pattern these days so let’s go through it. Yesterday’s higher humidity, warmth, showers, and thunderstorms are gone, but not before a swatch of stronger storms with scattered wind damage occurred, especially along and either side of I-90 (just a bit further south than I had expected the axis of stronger storms to be). A cold front has passed by and is exiting via the South Coast early this morning, with lingering cloudiness and still a few showers possible up until mid morning. This afternoon, the arrival of dry air will help to clear the sky, but a north to northeast breeze will also transport rather cool air into the region, as much as 20 to 25 degrees cooler than the high temperatures of Tuesday. So if you have outdoor plans , the afternoon is your driest time and the evening will be rather cool for late July. We see a temperature rebound a little bit on Thursday but this will come with a bit of a price, in the form of more clouds and the threat of a shower or two as a warm front moves into and across the region. This will be followed by a cold front coming through that evening and night, parented by low pressure passing north of the region. This cold front will bring the risk of showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the evening. Right now I’m not expecting a repeat of what took place last night, but we may have to watch for a few stronger storms. Friday, drier air arrives again, but some upper level energy and a pool of cold air aloft may trigger a few pop up showers and thunderstorms. That will be out of here by Friday night and set us up for a dry and pleasant final day of July, courtesy Canadian high pressure. With moderate confidence I tell you that the first day of August on Sunday should be seasonably warm and more humid but with a chance of showers and thunderstorms are some point during the day, depending on the timing of an approaching disturbance and front.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered to isolated showers until mid morning followed by increasing sunshine north to south. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening then some clouds returning during the overnight. Patchy ground fog forming late at night mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds but partial sunshine and just a chance of a shower. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms, mainly during the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog forming late. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

A weakening of the dominant west northwest air flow, becoming a weaker west to southwest flow as there will also be a tendency for more high pressure off the US East Coast. This opens the door for higher humidity, warmth but no major sustained heat, and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, but limited. It looks like the boundary between this and cooler air in Canada will stay mostly to the north of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

A continuation of more dominant warmth and humidity but with the additional of more shower and thunderstorm opportunities as a frontal boundary hangs around close to the region.

60 thoughts on “Wednesday July 28 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Decent T storm last evening. Big wind at the outset. While closing windows, I ‘d say in the neighborhood of 50 mph. Logan gusted to 61 mph.

    Some nice down pours. 0.60 inch here.

  2. Thanks, TK.

    0.78 here. I’m really skeptical about Logan’s measurement. But who knows. I think someone there has a vested interest in keeping the 1921 record in tact.

    1. Logan’s 0.38 fits in the regional range.
      Remember, this is convective precipitation and the distribution is highly unlike that of a stratiform precipitation event.

    2. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I know it is convective in nature, But I remain skeptical.

      Even in a stratiform event, Logan has been consistently low.

      As I write, I find it raining again. Another 0.02 this morning.

      I am going to start building an ARK!!!!_@)*#*!(@)*#()!*@()#

  3. TK, you’re absolutely right about the variance in precipitation amount ranges, especially given the convective nature of the showers/storms. I just find it a bit odd that I’ve received so much more rain than Logan, which is only a few miles away.

    1. SAK made a highly informative post not that long ago that explained the variations.

      1. Yes he did and it was excellent.

        Let’s look at this again when we get back to a more stratiform precipitation pattern. I’ll bet anything Logan still falls short
        of neighboring stations.

        My gut keeps telling me something is wrong over there.
        But who am I and what the hell do I know. 🙂

        1. Hopefully I’ll be at Logan soon – first time in 20 months – and will ask to see the rain gauge person to have a chat. Of course, if I do that, I’ll probably be physically removed from the premises and put on the “no fly” list.

  4. First American woman makes it to the badminton quarterfinals at an olympic games. Now that’s sports! 🙂

    Actually, if I would somehow have been an olympian, I think bandminton is one of the only sports I’d have had a shot to be competitive in. 😉

    1. Just happened to be looking at the radar at the right time.
      I saw that cell pass over the city just before it dropped the tornado.

  5. Thanks, TK!

    The convective action stayed to the north of us last night.
    We ended up with 0.38″ which gives us 9.92″ for July, a new record which breaks the 9.37″ in 1921.

    I’d like to be a curler. I am guessing not a lot of sweat involved and probably beers after.

  6. The northern half of Greenland and nearby Ellesmere Island are having a warm spell.

    Current temp in Alert, Canada : 62F.

  7. So this has been an area of discussion this season. Sea surface temperature anomalies from different sources. NCEP, CDAS and noaa’s ct5km_ssta_v3.1 sea surface anomaly maps are so different. Only thing I can get is that there is different ways of getting them, Some are more satellite based while others are boats and buoys. Different coding for the maps. The thing is they are showing all very similar SSTs actual temperatures so I am not sure if that is the reason or not.

  8. As the Sox are about to play game #1 of a doubleheader today …..

    I think the past few week´s weather may have some effect on the AL East outcome.

    The Sox now have 3 doubleheaders in the next 2 and 1/2 weeks.

    Under baseball´s changes, both games in doubleheaders now are 7 innings long.

    I believe, with the Sox strong lineup and their repeated demonstration of wearing down opposing team´s pitching staffs, that this takes away from one of their strengths.

    Tough doubleheader today. I know Toronto´s record isn´t much above .500, but Toronto´s lineup is right up there with the Sox. Their run differential is +85, higher than the Sox´s run differential. So, they must lose a lot of close games, but the games they win, they win big. Hopefully, Sox get at least 1 game today.

  9. Quick peak at the latest SPC outlook for tomorrow and looks like a potentially active day down wxwatcher way. A marginal risk is up for a good chunk of SNE tomorrow.

  10. NYC south to d.c. needs to be on the lookout tomorrow for some nasty thunderstorms. I think here an isolated strong thunderstorm is possible but nothing like what some areas saw yesterday.

  11. Quick peak at the SREF and it has SNE in a low tornado risk between 11pm Thurs to 2am Fri.

    1. Maybe in play if the EURO forecast below verifies. Depends how far north the soupy dewpoints can make it and where the warm front sets up.

  12. 12z Euro passes a 995 mb low over southern New England later tomorrow night.

    That´s impressive for the heart of summer. Quite a swath of rain along the south coast.

  13. SREF has a 1001mb low pressure dropping to 997mb on the northern VT NH boarder late Thurs night into very early Fri morning.

    1. Definitely an energetic for summer, mid latitude low passing through. Maintaining intensity or even strengthening a bit.

    1. Absolutely …. the sfc wind is SSW, at 850 mb, its SW and further aloft, its due west. A lot of shear for sure.

      1. And the south coast water temps are pushing 75F now, so that can only add to the instability.

  14. As Tom alluded to, it looks like we’re going to end the month the way it began. [Well, the 29th into the 30th; the 31st should be dry and nice.] Mother nature wants records to fall. It’s been that kind of a month.

  15. Don’t think the rain totals will be all that impressive tomorrow night / Friday morning – but what we really need to keep an eye on is a severe weather, particularly a wind damage threat, in the pre-dawn hours to just after sunrise.

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