C-19 Chat Post – 9-23-2022

The final hours of summer roll by appropriately with higher humidity and showers with a chance of thunderstorms today as a cold front approaches and moves into the region. This front is not moving all that quickly so the shower threat will last well into afternoon, especially for eastern and southeastern areas, where I’m expecting the heaviest rain amounts – greatest chance of over 1 inch being south of Boston (RI and southeastern MA). The front pushes through by evening and just in time for the autumnal equinox (9:04 p.m.) in comes the coolest air mass we have experienced since last spring, along with a gusty wind, especially during Friday, although breezy conditions continue into Saturday despite a little temperature recovery after a chilly start to the day. It’ll turn milder still on Sunday as the Canadian high pressure area that brings us the beginning-of-autumn chill slides off to the south and we get the return flow on the other side of it. So all in all it will be quite a nice first weekend of autumn for us. Reminder that larger ocean swells associated with Hurricane Fiona are already impacting the South Coast and will expand to include more of the region through Friday and the start of the weekend as the storm passes just west of Bermuda then accelerates toward the Canadian Maritimes, where they will see a powerful storm as it becomes extratropical and hits them. Rough surf generated by the passing storm in addition to the long period swells will impact our coast especially Friday into Saturday before easing. Monday’s weather looks a bit unsettled here as a trough arrives from the west.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy until late day with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms, some producing heavy rainfall, tapering off west northwest to east southeast late in the day but probably lasting into evening Cape Cod. Sun may appear especially west and north of Boston for a nice sunset there. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day from west to east across the area.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Unsettled weather early in the period as a trough passes by followed by a shot of chilly and dry air, then continued dry with moderating temperatures toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

We’ll watch during this period for at least remnant moisture from a tropical system to the south which has a long way to go before it ever has a chance to impact us, giving plenty of time in this area to watch what effects, if any, it may have. Otherwise the period likely starts and ends dry and mild, pending the timing of the aforementioned system or remnants of it.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-22-2022

There is a lot of weather to talk about as we wrap up astronomical summer and enter autumn. The autumnal equinox will occur at 9:04 p.m. Thursday, marking the official change of seasons. First, we have leftover low level moisture behind yesterday’s departing low pressure system. We haven’t had a strong advection of drier air into the region behind this system, so the clearing has not been quick to occur. The drizzle is gone though, and the clouds are breaking in some areas as of sunrise, and while many areas start with a grey sky, we’ll end up with intervals of clouds and sun – sun becoming more dominant – as the day goes on, and really a nice final full day of summer. Appropriately, the day we transition from summer to autumn will also be a transition day for our weather. A strong cold front will be moving across the region. I once thought this system would whistle through from northwest to southeast during the early morning hours, but Hurricane Fiona (we’ll get to her shortly) has had enough impact on the pattern already, just enough, to slow the front down by a handful of hours. This means that a lot of the shower activity will take place from Thursday morning to mid afternoon with a slightly slower-moving frontal boundary. But it will push through, and almost as if somebody planned it, we’ll know that a new air mass has arrived – cool air on a gusty northwest wind – as we get to evening and fall officially begins with the occurrence of the equinox. Friday through Sunday will be dry days for us here in the WHW forecast area, with an October-like day for the first full day of autumn on Friday – very dry air, a gusty breeze, and some locations that struggle to make 60. The cool breeze will continue Friday night into Saturday, and that combined with the very dry air will be the reasons that some interior portions of southern New England don’t see their first frost of the season as the temperature probably won’t be able to drop low enough due to wind-mixed air. Anyway the air might just simply be too dry for dew or frost to form. Regardless, if you’re an early riser, get ready for a chilly Saturday morning, even with a bit of “wind chill” in areas that keep the breeze going. We will see a nice temperature recovery back to the 60s that day with sun. Sunday will further warm up, back to 70+ territory for much of the region, although our sun may become filtered to limited in advance of an approaching warm front by later in the day, although it does look rain-free. So our first weekend of autumn does indeed look like quite a nice one. However, if you have plans taking you to the coastline then, even before then (South Coast already today and tomorrow, all areas Friday-Sunday), watch for rough surf and large ocean swells stirred up by Hurricane Fiona. The storm itself, now a major hurricane moving into open waters northeast of the Bahamas, will be taking a track fairly close to by west of Bermuda late Thursday / early Friday. I do believe it will be far enough west to spare that island the worst of the storm, but they will still get a gusty rain event. This is kind of a best-case scenario for Bermuda and the US East Coast for a storm this far west and this strong – moving between the two with minimal and manageable impact. This may not be the case for southeastern Canada, a large portion of which will be whacked by the post-tropical but still-powerful storm with lots of wind, rain, and even some snow over interior areas where it will be just cold enough, while we’re enjoying our nice weekend. Oh how the weather can be vastly different over not-too-great a distance.

TODAY: Clouds break for intervals of clouds and sun – more sun with time. Highs 69-76. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to SW by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Scattered showers arrive west to east overnight but may favor areas north of I-90, especially southern NH. Lows 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts especially South Coast.

THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy through mid afternoon with scattered showers early, then numerous to widespread showers and possible embedded thunderstorms, which will then end from west to east by later in the day. Breaking clouds and intervals of sunshine from west to east by late day. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day from west to east across the area.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog may form in interior low elevations. Lows 45-52, slightly cooler some interior lower elevations. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

More weather changes as we head through the final 5 days of September… Low pressure trough and frontal system moves through September 26 to early September 27 with a shower threat – more details to come later. Generally fair weather and another shot of cool air to follow this system as Canadian high pressure moves in, then a little warmer weather be the end of the period as high pressure shifts to the east of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)

There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast for the early days of October. A tropical wave approaching the southern windward islands, typical for this time of year, is getting more organized and has a good chance of becoming the next tropical storm (eventually possible / probable hurricane). I don’t often mention names too far in advance because of uncertainty, but we already have TS Gaston in the open Atlantic, and with no other systems of concern at the moment the disturbance heading for the Caribbean would likely end up with the name Hermine, so let’s assume for a moment that this is what happens. Again, noting that model guidance for tropical systems is to be taken with grains of salt due to their limited performance ability with such systems, the medium range models are in agreement at this time that this new system would move through the Caribbean and be in a much better position to impact at least the southeastern US (not sure where yet – too soon to know) eventually. After that the guidance takes the remains (or weakened version of the system) at least part way up the US East Coast as a significant rain system. Again it’s too soon to sound like I’m grabbing onto any details – we’re really just talking models at this point. But at this time of year you monitor. In our case, we monitor for any typical issues a storm like that might bring, but also monitor somewhat in hopes that moisture from a system like this could help us majorly reduce our still-ongoing drought. So as you can see there is a lot to consider in the medium range, and while we never should jump to conclusions we must be aware of all of the possibilities. These will be kept track of as always, and refined and fine-tuned as we get closer to this period of time. For now, I’d lean toward dry weather to start October, a milder spell, and then the chance of rain at some point, pending future movement of that tropical system and any mid latitude disturbance that may approach the region too.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-21-2022

Wrap-around moisture behind departing low pressure gives us an unsettled day today, and the cloud cover will keep us on the cool side as well. Improvement arrives late tonight and leads to a nicer day Wednesday as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region. But look out! Here comes a strong cold front Thursday morning, accompanied by showers and possible thunderstorms. This will pass by and then dry weather returns, but this time with the bluster and cool-down of autumn later Thursday, just in time for the autumnal equinox Thursday evening. Friday and Saturday will feature fair weather and below normal temperatures as Canadian air is delivered on the eastern side of high pressure. Something further away will be impacting our region late this week, and that is Hurricane Fiona, which is forecast to track west of Bermuda late Thursday and then accelerate northeastward in the waters well east of New England Friday before heading into southeastern Canada Saturday. Large swells and rough surf will result, impacting any coastal plans.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon, a few of which can be briefly heavy. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening. Areas of fog redevelop. Lows 51-58. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds return from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn, favoring areas north of I-90. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms through midday, ending from northwest to southeast, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74 but falling temperatures later in the day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

High pressure to the west of the region shifts to the south of the region with a bit warmer air arriving September 25, but we may also see the advance of clouds before the end of that day with a warm front approaching the region. This will be ahead of the next trough and low pressure system which is expected to bring a round of showery weather on September 26. Unsettled may linger to September 27 as well but the trend will be for a return to cool/dry weather middle to later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

For now expecting high pressure to be the dominant force with fair weather and moderating temperatures, but we may need to watch for unsettled weather arriving later in the period, possibly in the form of remnant tropical moisture. A lot of uncertainty in this part of the outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-20-2022

A back-door cold front has moved into the region and has put most of the WHW forecast area on the cooler side of the boundary, but this front is now slowing down, and will eventually come to a stop, or just waver around a little bit, stretching from the MA South Coast across southwestern or central RI and east central CT up into even south central MA for a while before it slips a bit south of there. This sets up a fairly sharp temperature contrast across the boundary, with a large area of daytime temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s, there will be a narrow area to the south of the front that will break 70, and while there is a general low overcast on the cool side of the boundary, to the south there are breaks of sun, at least for a while, which can help boost temperatures even toward 80 in a few areas. During this time, a trough of low pressure will be moving in from the west, tossing plenty of cloudiness over the top of what’s occurring below, so eventually the entire region is overcast by a bit later. Other than a few pockets of light drizzle on the maritime side of the front, we’ll go through many hours of the day rain-free, until a batch of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms arrives from the west toward and into evening. I’m not expecting any severe storms, but some downpours are possible. This activity will push out of the area overnight. Tuesday, as a surface low pressure area cuts across central Maine then heads into southeastern Canada, we’ll get its wrap-around moisture in the form of abundant cloud cover and scattered showers, so look for another unsettled day that I had previously been more optimistic about. However, any rain drops we can get from this system will further help us in reducing the still ongoing drought. Finally, a ridge of high pressure will poke its way into New England and provides us with our pick of the week on Wednesday, a dry and mild day for the final full day of astronomical summer. On its heels comes a strong cold front which will sweep across the region during the morning hours Thursday, ushering in a cool Canadian air mass, the front accompanied by a band of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms, mostly in the pre-dawn hours, but may linger a bit into the daylight portion of morning for southern and eastern areas. The balance of Thursday will feature a gusty wind and a sun/cloud mix as the cooler, dry air rushes into the region. The autumnal equinox occurs that evening, so the arrival of the fall air mass will lead it by a number of hours – but generally right on cue. We’ll be in a northwesterly air flow of cool and dry air Friday with fair weather for the first full day of autumn.

TODAY: Breaks of sun MA South Coast to south central MA, RI, eastern CT, eventually clouding over there. Overcast elsewhere. Pockets of light drizzle possible especially eastern coastal areas. Showers arrive west to east later. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern shores, except a narrow band of 65-72 near frontal boundary and 73-80 to the south of it over southeastern CT, southwestern RI, and possibly the MA South Coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH except S to SW 5-15 MPH on the warm side of the front.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening, including possible thunderstorms. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, especially late morning on. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH early, diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and RI, early to mid morning. Otherwise, sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74 early, then cooler. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

High pressure to the west of the region shifts to the south of the region during the course of the first full weekend of autumn September 24-25. Saturday’s a day with a chilly start, seasonably cool afternoon, and NW wind. Sunday’s a day with a cool start, mild afternoon, and W to SW breeze, but lighter than Saturday, but overall a great weekend for outdoor activity. Caution for any coastal plans (beach, fishing, boating): Rough surf and large ocean swells will occur due to the far offshore passage of Hurricane Fiona, but our weather pattern will keep this system from a more direct impact. Next trough and frontal system expected to bring unsettled weather to the region September 26, maybe into the next day, followed by another shot of cool/dry air with breezy conditions at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Expecting high pressure to dominate with mostly dry weather, below normal temperatures to wrap up September and a milder trend to start October.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-19-2022

The feel of summertime is back today as high pressure sits to our south. We’ll have sunshine but it will be filtered by high altitude smoke, giving a hazy look to the sky, in addition to some patches of high and mid level clouds, but the filtered sun will shine most of the day as temperatures shoot into the 80s in many places (70s South Coast) and dew points climb fairly quickly to the 60s as opposed to yesterday’s dry 40s – so you’ll feel it. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may appear in southern NH and possibly far northern MA this evening as a back-door cold front slides down from the north northeast. This front will move across the region overnight and come to a halt somewhere in the southwestern portion of the WHW forecast area, maybe not making it through southwestern RI and southeastern CT, setting up a potential large temperature contrast for Monday, ranging from the 60s to the lower 80s from northeast to southwest across the region. In addition, a disturbance from the west will be moving in with showers and thunderstorms developing and pushing into the region during the day, but most especially during the afternoon and evening hours. This system will be departing on Tuesday but enough instability will remain for the potential for pop up showers, so those have to be in the forecast as a possibility. High pressure will bring fair and mild weather on Wednesday before it shifts off to the southeast and a strong cold front moves through on Thursday, preceded by showers and possible thunderstorms, then ushering in the coolest air we’ve seen in quite a while just in time for the arrival of autumn (equinox occurs Thursday evening).

TODAY: Hazy (smoke-filtered) sunshine. Highs 80-87 but 70s South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Thunderstorms also possible, especially CT, RI, and interior MA. Highs 66-73 southern NH, eastern and central MA, and northeastern RI/CT, 74-81 southwestern RI and southeastern CT. Wind NE 5-15 MPH. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly from the NE in the cooler areas, and S to SW in the warm zones.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening, including possible thunderstorms favoring eastern areas of MA, southeastern NH, and RI. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun at times but isolated to scattered showers are possible. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms morning. Sun/cloudy mix midday-afternoon. Highs 67-74 early, then cooler. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Breezy/cool/dry weather September 23-24 with a large area of Canadian high pressure approaching and moving in via the Great Lakes. Milder September 25 as the high shifts to the east but may turn unsettled before the end of the weekend due to an approaching warm front from a system that will bring a cold front along and a shower threat through September 26. This should be followed by another shot of cool/breezy weather for the end of the period in a progressive pattern. Forecast Hurricane Fiona will likely remain out at sea well off the US East Coast but create rough surf.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Indications are for high pressure to dominate with a dry stretch of weather to end September and start October, with cooler than normal temperatures early in the period followed by a moderating trend.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-18-2022

High pressure maintains control of the weather this weekend, which will have two distinctive personalities to its weather. Today is a dry day – dew point in the 40s, with a chilly early morning and a pleasantly mild afternoon, light wind, and bright sun mixed with patchy passing clouds as the center of high pressure moves from overhead to just south of the area. Sunday is going to bring the feel of summer back, humidity spiking with dew point rising to the 60s, a gusty southwesterly breeze with high pressure to the south, and plenty of sun but a hazier look to the sky due to another plume of high altitude smoke from western US wildfires. A cold front approaching from the north later Sunday may trigger enough instability so that we see an isolated shower or thunderstorm by evening across southern NH and a remote chance that one of these could wander into northeastern MA as well. As the front presses closer then passes through the region, a round of scattered showers should accompany it during the nighttime hours. Moisture arriving from the west as this front settles just south of the region will help to bring rounds of showers and much cooler weather for Monday, into Monday night as well. High pressure from the north is expected to push the unsettled weather to the south with improving conditions Tuesday, and then as the pattern progresses, the high will move over then south of the region with fair, mild weather for Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest eastern shores. Wind W up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. High altitude smoke arriving. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Hazy (smoke-filtered) sunshine. Highs 80-87 but 70s South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

There are changes and lots to keep track of during this period of time. First, a quick push of warm and humid air will be thwarted by a strong cold front sweeping across the region on the day of the autumnal equinox (Sep 22), and this front can bring a round of showers and possible thunderstorms, and definitely a gusty, shifting wind (timing of front to be determined). Coolest air in a while arrives behind front for September 23 and 24 as we have a gusty breeze on 9-23 then less wind the day following. High pressure shifts over then south of the region with a warm-up for the last couple days of this period, and eventually the possibility of showers as another front approaches. At the same time, we’ll be watching for Fiona somewhere off the US East Coast (likely quite far out to sea but close enough for impact via rough surf). Fiona, while battling adverse conditions currently, will be well beyond that and should be of hurricane strength when it makes its closest pass to our area, but kept offshore by that push of Canadian air.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

The trends continue to be for another strong push of cool air from Canada arriving early in the period that may last several days with mainly dry weather conditions as well.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-17-2022

Today, I will try to bring the details of the upcoming weather changes into better focus than on the previous update. To start off, if you were up at sunrise today in the WHW forecast area you may have noticed “that hazy look” to the sky and the filtered nature of the rising sun. That, once again, is a plume of high altitude smoke that has made its way across the country from western wildfires. This smoke area will be in and out of our region over the coming days. Today it will give the sky the hazy look, especially early, before it starts to push off to the southeast and thin out, staying mostly to the south Saturday before coming back to the north Sunday and giving the sky a hazy appearance once again. We’ll see patches of high and mid level clouds in the sky at times on a northwesterly air flow today but most of these will be to the north. We’re still under the influence of Canadian high pressure with seasonable air, cool both this morning and Saturday morning with a modest warm-up this afternoon and a more noticeable one Saturday afternoon as the high center sinks to our south. With high pressure off to the south on Sunday we’ll get a push of warm and more humid air along with the hazier look to the sky from the smoke, giving it the feel of mid summer despite the lowering sun angle. In fact, we’re going to see about 20 degrees rise in dew point over the weekend as we go from the crisp 40s Saturday to the muggy 60s during Sunday. We’ll be keeping an eye on a frontal boundary to the north which will get a push southward, thanks to another area of high pressure in eastern Canada. I still think this boundary will stay far enough north to keep us warm through the daylight hours of Sunday. The boundary should then slip to the south during Sunday night and Monday while a disturbance arrives from the west at the same time. This will combine to bring a cool down and unsettled weather in the form of occasional rain Monday, especially in the afternoon and evening. The current timing indicates that drier air from the north and west will push this system out of the region on Tuesday, with improving weather at that time.

TODAY: Sun competes with patchy high and middle clouds mostly north, and high-altitude smoke all areas, especially morning through midday. Both clouds and smoke decrease with brighter sun for most of the afternoon. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TONIGHT: Clear except patches of ground fog can form in lower elevations. Lows 45-52, coolest in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog re-forming in some lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain, especially evening. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure brings dry weather for the last full day of summer 2022. Watching for a strong cold front to pass by sometime on the day of the autumnal equinox – September 22 – with a warm push ahead of it, a shower and thunderstorm threat along it, and a wind shift and a push of much cooler / dry air behind it. The timing will have to be tweaked, obviously. Fair weather and below normal temperatures follow it with a warm-up at the very end of this period as high pressure from Canada will then have shifted to the south of the region in a progressive weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Medium range forecasts during the peak of hurricane season are always tricky and especially when there is the possibility that a storm will be at least in the general vicinity of the part of the world you are living in. Such is the case here. Fiona, which as a tropical storm will be continuing to battle wind shear, dry air, and eventually mountains, will struggle as it goes into and through the Caribbean in the days ahead. Beyond that, the track and any restrengthening become less certain to determine, but the most likely scenario based on the anticipated weather pattern is that the system ends up somewhere off the US East Coast by the final days of September, at least increasing our surf along the coast. We’ll obviously have to watch for a more direct impact, but my earliest thoughts are that we will be seeing yet another strong push from a Canadian air mass and high pressure area that will be preceded by unsettled weather and followed by a shot of cool/dry air here, keeping any tropical systems from reaching the region. Obviously, you can’t make this kind of forecast in the 11-15 day range with high confidence, so there will be a lot of monitoring to be done in the days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-16-2022