4:11PM

Low pressure will continue to spin in the northeastern US into Wednesday before departing via southeastern Canada late Wednesday and Thursday. The center of this low northwest of New England means a mostly southerly wind tonight, shifting more to the west as the low starts to move north of the region during Wednesday. Spokes of energy moving around this low pressure area will cause a chance of showers during this time. Thursday, another low pressure area will move rapidly eastward from the Midwest, bringing a chance of wet weather late day and mainly at night. The track of this low may be just south of the forecast area, which puts us in a risk of a steady period of rain at night, though it does not look like a heavy rain event. This low departs on Friday with drier weather and a gusty wind in its wake. Fair weather is expected Saturday but by Sunday, the next disturbance will return clouds and a chance of showers to the region. A peek into early next week shows mainly fair and slightly milder weather.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Low 41-46. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers. High 55-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 42-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High 57-62. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Low 45-50. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 57.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 44. High 53.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 42. High 61.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 63.

5:47PM

The storm that brought the rain and wind to the area will spin slowly into southeastern Canada through midweek. The circulation around it will send a couple disturbances across southern New England which will send some spokes of  showers through the region. After this low lifts away, another one will cross the region late Thursday and early Friday, but this one will be moving right along and will not be a big rain producer.

An early call on the weekend shows that it may be split with a decent Saturday and an unsettled Sunday.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH EVENING: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers lingering. Temperature falling through the 50s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 43-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. High 58-63. Wind S 15-25 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy. Chance of showers. High 57-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 44. High 55.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 57.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 41. High 58.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 44. High 53.

MONDAY: Slow clearing. Low 46. High 59.

10:20PM

A drought-denting rain is underway. This is not enough to end the drought over eastern New England, but it is enough to get the deficits down a little. And for the most part the rain is coming in such a way that flooding is not a problem. The heaviest rain areas are moving through during this Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday, with the heaviest axis shifting west of the forecast area as low pressure to the south pivots into the NY/NJ area. The large circulation around this system will impact the weather through Wednesday, but a dry slot moving up from the south will cut off the majority of the rainfall by mid morning Monday, and then only scattered showers will be around due to unstable air for the following couple days. A low pressure trough will remain in control as we get later into the week with another disturbance bringing a shower threat Thursday-Friday. Looking ahead to next weekend, departing low pressure should cause a windy/cool Saturday and high pressure should result in more tranquil weather for Sunday.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain with embedded heavier showers. Temperature rising from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers becoming less numerous during the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 48-53. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. High 58-63. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 48. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 58.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 48. High 56.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

9:17AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH.  No changes to previous discussion at this time.

Rainfall amounts for upcoming storm: 1/2 to 2 inches generally across the forecast area.  Slight chance a few isolated locations see 2+ inches. Some places get short-changed and come in under 1 inch in this despite all the hype of widespread 2-4 inch rainfall amounts.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle this morning. Periods of rain during the afternoon. Temperature falling through the 50s to the upper 40s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. Low 44-49. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially in coastal areas and higher elevations.

MONDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 46. High 58.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 44. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 60.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 57.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 55.

7:46PM

1st, a breakdown of how weather systems impact southeastern New England (eastern MA, southern NH, and RI), and 2nd, a detailed forecast, period by period (nights & days) for the next several days.

Discussion…

Tonight & early Saturday… Moisture moving in on a southerly wind will bring plenty of clouds and maybe a few areas of drizzle.

Saturday midday & afternoon… A slice of early summer-feeling weather with lots of sun and warm air.

Saturday night… Clouds return from the west and a weakening area of showers moves through from a cold front that barely makes it across the region before stopping just offshore.

Sunday… The front sitting just offshore will hold clouds in with some occasional  light rain or drizzle possible, but no significant rain is expected during the day.

Sunday night & Monday… Developing and deepening low pressure to the south, moving up along the front, takes a left turn into the NY/NJ area, sending a slug of heavy rain toward the area. My concern is that the axis of heaviest precipitation may remain west of much of the forecast area, at least eastern sections. A split may even occur where heavier rain goes both east and west of the Boston area. Therefore, I am going to remain conservative on my rainfall forecast at this point. A good round number guess for rain amounts will be 1/2 to 1 inch for eastern areas and 1 to 2 inches with locally heavier toward the west, with the bigger amounts of 2+ inches being further to the west (Worcester Hills westward). This is still uncertain so please check back for updates. A dry slot working into the storm as it spins over NY State later Monday should shut off any significant rain in the eastern portion of southern New England.

Tuesday & Wednesday… Low pressure lingering over the Northeast will produce scattered showers as the air is unstable.

Thursday & Friday… Uncertain, low pressure trough may keep it somewhat unsettled.

Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clouds increasing southwest to northeast. Low 53-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle through mid morning, then turning sunny midday well into afternoon before more clouds approach from the W late afternoon hours. High 74-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Scattered showers moving in west to east by late night. Temperature cooling through the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain and drizzle. Temperature cooling through the 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: AM rain & wind / PM few showers. Low 44. High 54.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight risk of showers. Low 43. High 56.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of showers. Low 44. High 57.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 59.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 42. High 61.

8:04PM

What I do know: Friday will be a wonderful mid spring day. The weather will go downhill this weekend through Monday.

What I don’t know: How much rain will fall between Saturday night and Monday. There are too many scenarios with how the interaction of several disturbances will pan out in regards to the timing and location of any significant rain. For now, I’m not even going to go through them in any detail. It will just be something to watch and this medium to low confidence forecast will reflect this approach. Stay tuned for updates…

In the mean time, the forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 72-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog late. Low 52-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mid to late afternoon. High 67-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 50-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain late day and night. High 55-60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain early. Low 47. High 56.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 43. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 66.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 68.

3:54PM

Full discussion later, but a few points:

Sun filtered to dimmed this afternoon by lots of high clouds fanning off a system to the southwest that won’t make it here.

Wet weather over the weekend and Monday may not turn out to be that much in eastern parts of southern New England.

Forecast update for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Limited sun – lots of high cloudiness. Temperature cooling into the 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Patchy frost inland valleys. Low from near freezing in deep valleys to lower 40s coast. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 65-70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 49. High 70.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 52. High 66.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 59.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 45. High 55.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 43. High 57.

9:40PM

And now for a 6-day transition from the latest preview of summer to what Spring really is like much of the time. A cold front approaching on Tuesday will have no moisture with it, and the day will be quite warm. Cooler air arrives by Wednesday behind this front. Slightly milder weather is expected Thursday-Friday, but we won’t get back to the level we are at now. By the weekend, a low pressure trough will overtake the region. It will turn unsettled and much cooler, but I do not foresee significant widespread rainfall. High fire danger will continue for the next few days and drought conditions also continue.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 78-83. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 50-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 58-63. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 66.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 45. High 60.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain and drizzle. Low 40. High 47.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 41. High 56.

2:01AM

This week starts out with a record warm Patriots Day & Marathon Monday around southern New England as yet another unseasonably warm airmass invades the region. A cold front will whistle through during Tuesday, starved for moisture, with a second front on its heals for early Wednesday. These fronts, will knock temperatures down as we head into midweek. Fair weather will dominate during midweek and into late week. By the weekend, some unsettled weather is expected as a new trough of low pressure approaches.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 85-90, except cooler (mainly 70s) where wind comes off the ocean water. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 75-80. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 65.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 64.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 47. High 61.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 46. High 57.

12:41PM

Quick forecast update for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH… You’ll notice a drier forecast for midweek from what I had before, and an unsettled ending to the week. More later with The Week Ahead.

THIS AFTERNOON: Fading sunshine. High 75-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Low 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Partly cloudy. High 85-90. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 62.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 61.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 42. High 57.

7:21PM

Well folks, I can’t deny it, another stretch of warm weather is coming. This one will not be as intense and long lasting as what we saw in March, but the peak day will probably be classified as a hot day, and the bad news is that it will coincide with the running of the Boston Marathon. This will remind many of 2004, and for those who were around for it, 1976 though not as hot as then when it reached the middle 90s in Boston! High pressure will be in general control for the next 3 days, building off to the south of New England. Temperatures will warm during this time. An interesting note is that some locations may see a nearly 40-degree diurnal on  Saturday (the spread between the low temperatures and the high temperature), as some valley locations that dip to the lower 30s in the early  morning recover to near 70 in the afternoon! A couple disturbances (Saturday night & Sunday night) will bring threats of showers and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm, but otherwise dry weather will rule. The scattered showers/storms of Thursday were not enough to provide widespread relief for drought conditions and high fire danger, so we will see this continue. A frontal system will remain to the north of the region until Tuesday, at which time a cool-down ans turn to more unsettled weather will begin.

Forecast for eastern MA,  southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from 32 in the valleys to near 40 along the coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 65-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm after midnight. Low 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 75-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Low 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Partly cloudy. High 85-90. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 60. High 74.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 64.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 45. High 57.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 45. High 63.

2:38AM

High pressure builds over New England with dry weather and a warming trend through Saturday. A disturbance will cross the region Sunday with a shower threat, though it will still be mild. The question then becomes, what happens with a front to the north versus high pressure to the south, as we get into Monday (Patriots Day / Boston Marathon day)? Yesterday, I was leaning toward a quicker frontal passage and a cooler solution. At the moment I’m leaning a little warmer. Beyond this, the warm air may try to hang on through Tuesday before a cool-down takes place during the middle of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon then increasing high clouds late day. High in the upper 60s to around 70, cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: AM showers. Low 51. High 70.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 54. High 80.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 57. High 74.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 51. High 64.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain/drizzle. Low 45. High 54.

7:30AM

Since there are no big changes to the previous discussion and things further out are too far away to really get detailed about, this morning I’m just entering an updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing light rain showers. High 54-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 40-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. High 50-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 58.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 66.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 70.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 50. High 60.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 64.

9:19PM

Since there are no big changes to the previous discussion and things further out are too far away to really get detailed about, this evening I’m just entering an updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low from the middle 30s to lower 40s, mildest urban and coastal areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing light rain showers. High 54-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 40-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. High 50-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 58.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 66.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 70.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 50. High 60.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 64.

2:30AM

Broad low pressure will continue to control the weather in Southern New England through Thursday, before high pressure takes over for the end of the week.

The placement of the low pressure area, to the north, is keeping the region on the drier side, with no significant rain to lessen the high fire danger. With a warm-up expected to accompany the late week high pressure building in, fire danger may increase even further.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A slight chance of light rain showers. Daytime highs middle 50s to around 60. Overnight lows upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW-W averaging 10-15 MPH with higher gusts during the day, lighter during the night.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 50-55. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 58.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 64.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 68.