Warmth Eases By Midweek, Crashes This Weekend

173 Comments

9:40PM

And now for a 6-day transition from the latest preview of summer to what Spring really is like much of the time. A cold front approaching on Tuesday will have no moisture with it, and the day will be quite warm. Cooler air arrives by Wednesday behind this front. Slightly milder weather is expected Thursday-Friday, but we won’t get back to the level we are at now. By the weekend, a low pressure trough will overtake the region. It will turn unsettled and much cooler, but I do not foresee significant widespread rainfall. High fire danger will continue for the next few days and drought conditions also continue.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 78-83. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 50-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 58-63. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 66.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 45. High 60.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain and drizzle. Low 40. High 47.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 41. High 56.

173 thoughts on “Warmth Eases By Midweek, Crashes This Weekend”

  3. how long are you thinking this cooler weather will be until? do you think it is short lived or long lived

    1. Based on the latest CPC, below normal temps and any rainfall will be short lived. We will be back to warm temps and dry conditions by month’s end.

      1. I did not jump into to the pool…. my dad says its to cold so its not safe so we could not go in. Patio is doing ok. Parents have been switching back and forth between different ideas

  5. Thanks TK. I guess we will have to be content with showers, light rain and drizzle and take whatever rainfall we can get. Based on your forecast, we are probably not looking at not much more than a half inch regionwide Saturday, Sunday and Monday combined. Anything will be helpful at this point. 🙂

    I do wonder though if your high temp for Friday is a bit too low?…more like 70+?

  6. At least today wasn’t a total loss sportswise. The B’s won 4-3! 🙂

    It would have been deadly if Washington was up 3-1 coming back here. At worst now we will be tied when we return.

  8. I think TK has this idea of not a lot of significant widespread rain exactly right.

    Seeing hints of that moisture laden system taking the southern route.

    1. Ugh. I am hoping for just one day out of the three. 7 was still saying this morning showers Fri and Sat and more significant Sun. Of course we all know what the odds are for anything more than a day out being right !

  9. What a morning 🙂 I have decided two of my favorite things about weather turning warmer. First, I don’t have to wear socks. I love being barefoot 🙂 Second, I can open all of the windows first thing. Third, I can have coffee on the deck and watch the world come alive. Three works in winter too since I sit in the front window by a fire and watch the world come alive. So maybe three can’t be considered unique to warm weather???

    1. Haha total opposite can’t stand being barefoot, must gave socks on at all times and even shoes alota of the time

        1. me too – my husband too. He was going nuts looking for his flip flops when it was warm a few weeks ago. Drove us all so crazy that my son in law went out and bought him new ones !

        2. i can stand shoes but i rather have sandals on . It depends on what I am doing. If i am at the house no shoes at all . but if i am hiking in the marsh or hiking somewhere its shoes. Beach day sandals and swimsuit. Relaxing day at the house Sleeveless shirt with shoes and sandals at the ready and swimsuit on…. so i can go in the pool when ever.

      2. you would not have like Burma 🙂 At the temples and pagodas you have to walk barefoot eveywhere!!

  10. Mt Washington down to 41F and falling fairly steadily. Still a light SW wind in Marshfield, no cold frontal passage yet. Notice from obs that west and northwest winds are picking up steadily in western and central Mass.

      1. wow – is there any snow left? I would think avalanche danger would be high or haven’t they had a deep enough snow depth?

  11. Mt Washington down to 37F, Albany holding steady in the upper 50s….but eastern Mass, under full sunshine rapidly flying through the 70s. Will be interesting to see when the cold air advection puts a stop to the quick temp rise.

      1. I should have added that it went from 59 at 6:30 to 71 quickly and then slowed down considerably

        1. Similar situation here near Hartford – we jumped from 59 to 68 between 7 and 8AM and then have flatlined at 68 since then. A gusty north wind started to kick in right around 8AM and put the brakes on the temp. rise. We’re still forecast to hit the upper 70’s today though with the strong sun.

  12. If the 6z GFS verifies this would help with the drought conditions we are having as well as the fire danger and high pollen count.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=04%2F17%2F2012+06UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=192&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    2. It’s so weird to see any color other than light green or…gulp…white on that map for our area. Let’s hope this verifies.

    3. I rather have 2 or 3 small storms( of up to 1 inch than one large storm) preferably durring the night). Flash flooding and erosion could be an issue. Dry ground with all of the suddent 2 inches of rain could lead to flash flooding.

  13. To me this looks like are best shot of rain that I have seen in a while. Until then the weather is going to be boring.
    I can’t wait till we start tracking thunderstsorms.

  14. I don’t think the drought will end with one big storm but rather several small events over an extend period of time.

  15. Coastal I agree with you. I don’t think one big storm is going to end the drought but if this pans out it will put a dent into our rainfall deficit for the year. I am not going to call this a drought buster. People who depend on wells for their water really need to see this rainfall deficit shrink.

    1. I’m debating on reseeding some areas in my yard now or waiting until the fall. I would hate to loose money seeding it now. Probably should wait until the fall regardless.

      1. Based on your comment the other day which made sense to me, we are fertilizing and weed controlling front lawn which gets 100% full sun and will overseed in fall. We’ll overseed the back lower section which is smaller and easy to hand water and move shaded. And we do not do much with top back since grandkids play there

  16. Well the 00z EURO has snow for us next Monday, had a good laugh when I saw it. I can see parts of Maine getting snow though.

      1. i would say bring the snow earlier but since we are doing a patio and my pool is open i do not want any of it

    2. hahahahaha – you won’t find me complaining 🙂 Either way you won’t find me complaining about the weather but when it’s unexpected I get the biggest kick out of it

  17. I am doing a rain dance for Saturday since we need it desperately and both of my boys start soccer that day. Normally I wouldn’t want it to be rained out but I have a baby shower to attend and will be sad if I have to miss their first game. So I am really hoping Mother Nature cooperates!!!

  18. HIghly unlikely we get snow with that POTENTIAL storm system although if the setup comes together like it did in late April 1987 it COULD happen.

    1. teeee heeee hee – I’m telling my friends and family it’s on the models.

      hmmmmm I think I have an evil side

  19. I don’t buy any of the long range models weekend / early next week scenarios.

    Unfortunately, I think our local region may see only a few showers sometime Sunday night, Monday morning as a front comes down from northern New England and that most of the southern stream precip misses to our south.

  20. And just think we will be in the dog days of summer in 4 months and it will be in the 80’s then too maybe 90’s 🙂

  21. It figures I will be moving 4/26-4/28. I’m hoping that if any rain occurs it will be early on next week.

    1. Agreed! Just stepped out of the office to get some fresh air and it sure was hard to force myself back in the building!

      1. luckly i have no school sadly rebuilding the patio seeing all the facebook statuses of ” i am in germany or I am going to the beach” I am camping” then the last part what are you doing for vacation :<

        1. And working with your family, Matt, on something originally built by your grandparents will be a memory no one can take away. Keep smiling:)

            1. Good thing about college is you get from xmas till end of Jan off then spring break in march, which I never really understood, cuz if you don’t go someplace warm and tropical, its not really much of a spring break around here (other than this year of course, haha)

    1. Exactly what we need too, nice prolonged period of light to moderate rain. Looks chilly though :mrgreen:

      1. What night is your golf league? My husbands starts on the 26th (thurs) and if I am reading coastal’s link correctly eastern MA may be out of the rain by then.

        Thanks, Coastal!

  24. Anyone have access to the 12Z Euro yet? Curious to see if it’s still showing the stronger storm scenerio from the 00Z.

        1. thank you VERY much! I’m playing with it and having fun – I had it quite a while ago but have far too many bookmarks and no time to organize them. This time I put it on my toolbar 🙂

  25. We have relief coming this weekend, I am totally all in for our 1st appreciable amounts of rain in quite some time, it will be a long duration rain/drizzle event 🙂

  26. On board with the ECMWF and its warm and mostly dry Saturday. Delayed precip onset until Sunday and a more realistic ~.75-1.0″ of QPF Sunday-Tuesday.

  27. Interesting little read from the NWS from Upton, NY
    AS THE COLD POOL UNDER THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
    THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW TO
    MIX IN ACROSS NW INTERIOR ZONES…BUT NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
    REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

  29. I just read in today’s Boston Herald that a woman runner suffered a heart attack in the Wellesley-Newton area yesterday and that BAA officials on Sunday were considering cancelling the Marathon.

    1. I’m not really sure about cancelling an event such as this because of temps in the 80s with low to moderate humidity. The thing is, marathons and triathlons, etc, are held worldwide in conditions worse than these. And we’ve had 3 or 4 marathon days as hot or hotter. I think just advising people to use good judgement is enough in this situation. There have been several heart attacks suffered in years when the temps were much much cooler.

      1. TK you are abssolutely correct. I was talking to my buisiness associate today. His running club volunteers to man the mile mark time clocks. He always does mile 14. He said there were next to no bandits running. It was the trained and he feels some were certainly heat related but there are problems every year and maybe more is being tied to heat than should be

      2. TK, I absolutely agree with your points. There is too much at stake to cancel an event such as this for elites as well as charities. However, it does appear that someone in the BAA must have put “cancellation” on the table during final discussions or briefings.

    2. Was that the elite female who went down at mile 14 in wellesley I know she was taken by ambulance.

        1. Only reason I knew is because it was my buisiness associate who stayed with her until the stretcher arrived. I also sure hope she is ok

  30. Good thing you don’t have a DRY personality TK, or else you would catch on FIRE because there is a high fire danger 😉 I know, I know, worse joke ever.

    2. Har har har…
      Well, since I see you in person 2 or 3 times a week, Miss Emily, then I can get you back in person for that horrendous joke. 😛 Actually, it was pretty funny.

  32. I also see some rain on Sunday and Monday but quick clearning by Tuesday. Thinking at best in eastern section of 1 inch or so. Nothing prolonged or long lasting.

    1. Agreed…….Yesterday, I thought the southern stream moisture would miss to the south, but that looks unlikely now. This morning’s EURO makes me wonder if the heaviest moisture now goes to the west of eastern New England ?

      Honestly, I can’t remember the last time it rained in Marshfield. We received no rain last Thursday from those instability showers. I was digging a bit in an area with bits of mulch and dirt yesterday. The top layer, when I disturbed it, created dust and I really could never find much dampness in the ground. It was dry layer after dry layer.

      1. I can’t remember exact date my weather station went up but it was somewhere in mid-Feb. Since then we have had 1.24 inches of rain. I believe more .5 was in one event and rest was in smaller events that really did nothing but evaporate

  33. I believe a heating degree day vs a cooling degree day is based on an avg daily temp of 65F. Thus, if the avg daily temp was 60F, that’s a 5F heating degree day, if the avg daily temp is 70F, that’s a 5F cooling degree day. These totals can give one an idea of how much energy might be needed in a climate to stay warm or cool.

    (Data from Taunton NWS climate section). Heating degree day departures since July 1, 2011…….

    Logan : -1,156
    Hartford : -1,116
    Providence : -932
    Worcester : -1,269

  35. We have about an inch of rain coming in a prolonged duration of 48hrs Sun night-Tue, can’t ask for anything better 🙂

    1. I really don’t think that it cause much relief to be honest. 1 inch on a very dry ground is not going to add much to the dry ground.

      1. Hadi, I would have to disagree with you slightly on this. I think one inch of rain would help with the drought conditions but only slightly. One inch is better than nothing. My back yard is a dust bowl.

  36. Not that I do not think it will help, but if we are looking at 1 inch of rain I would bet half of that is pure run off and the rest is absorbed into the ground.

    But yes it will help to an extent!

  37. When you are in a severe drought like we are in currently every little bit helps. As I said yesterday I don’t see this as a drought buster. I think the last good soaking we had was a few days after Christmas last year.

  38. I just had my first opportunity to drive down pelham island road in wayland – that’s the one that floods every spring and the people have to be trucked out. It is also where I mentioned here in December that the water was oddly up to the road and literally about to flood. The high water mark is down 5-8 feet from December depending on exact area. I don’t know if that translates to 5-8 feet loss but in the nearly 33 years I’ve lived here I don’t remember seeing it this low in the spring.

    1. I think the rain would run off the ground but it would go a fair way in replenishing the lakes and streams.

  39. Matt thanks for posting the article. I could say I am in the minority since I don’t believe in global warming. The reasons for the mild winter a weaking la nina, southeast ridge, and a NAO that remained positive not allowing the cold air to come down from Canada. We had a mild March since we saw a Bermuda like high pressure develop over the Atlantic which is typical for the summer months. There have been cases of extreme weather with the hurricanes hitting New England in the 50s for example.

      1. Same here…..Think earth has warmed 1F or so as a whole in the last century, but believe durations of above avg or below avg temps and precips largely due to weather patterns.

        1. 1 degree is a big increase in temp, consider how much more it will rise in the next 50 years, 2-3 degrees? Big problems

  40. Great article Matt. I don’t believe it is totally global warming but someone would be very hard pressed to convince me that our lack of care for our earth has not added considerably to the patterns and events.

    1. global warming i think will make these extreme conditions increase . From longer and more dangerous hurricane season, more tornadoes, drought or flooding and even some areas could see more or less snow. These changes that we are seeing I think is a mix of natural processes and human influence.

      2. matt I am absolutely on board with you.

        We all know our growing seasons is earlier and earlier. I’m watching the lily of the valley in my yard out of curiosity this year. When I was in my mid teens (mid-1960s) I would pick the lily of the valley to take to my grandmother’s gravesite for her birthday. That was June 3 and they would be at their height. Right now mine are in a sheltered area and are all above ground and some have the start of the flower. I think things happen so slowly we don’t really see the change.

  41. A north wind in eastern Marshfield is off the ocean and it is one chilly breeze, at least compared to the last two days. I’m guessing it’s not much more than 50F. Brilliant bright sun though, nice spring day.

  42. Looking fwd to seeing the 12z EURO and specifically see what it’s trend is for its 9th and 10th day projection. Curious to see if there is any consistency at all in that time period.

    On this morning’s 0z run, about 10 days out, it has a super surge of warmth coming up through the Mississippi Valley with 850 mb temps of 18 to 20C. For comparison, upper 80s to low 90s were achieved locally Monday with 850 temps of 15 to 17C.

    1. If we manage a decent amount of rain, I don’t think the temps will go much higher than that past 2 days. The drought conditions really helped get those temps to where they got to. But I did notice the rise in heights at the end of the EURO, which I hope doesn’t happen because my school would turn into a sweat bath.

        1. My school decides to put on the heat when its 50s and 60s and even 70s and when its 30 out they do not have the heat running

    2. Tom sorry that I used the same info on the other blog i was just tring to help answer someones question for them.

      1. also the whole post did not go through i did mention it was from you ….. I hope this does not change any opions about me.:(

  43. With a dry ground it does not take much for it to warm up when you have 100% of the possible sunshine. I think these models don’t take into account the dry ground when it comes to temperature projections.

  44. 12z GFS coming out now…..southern system looks further south and a little less phased on this run up to the timeframe I can see. Most important time frame panels coming out now….will be interesting to see what they predict.

      1. Yes….does seem like a lot of rain….however, in comparison to its 0z run, the low track is further east. (where was this conversation is Jan or Feb 🙂 )

        If those jet streams don’t phase, it’s going to be a big disappointment in the rainfall dept.

  45. today is a break from the warmer than seasonal temps . thursday and friday will be extremely nice with sunshine and temps in the low to mid 70s. saturday could be the warmest depending when the front wants to come through but will be decreasing the sun and increasing the clouds . most of saturday should be dry . Highs could be in the 70s or 60s depending again on when the front moves through. The period from saturday night through tuesday will be unsettled with the most rain falling sunday night and monday. saturday night i would not be surprise to see some thunderstorms in the evening then sunday ,showers ,fog and drizzle then the same for monday night and tuesday temps look to be near normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s . wednesday there will be a break with partial sun with highs in the low 60s. An other front will come through sometime on thursday to give us some light showers. After thursday there could be a warm up with temps rising into the 70s. Some models are hinting at a rise in temps again to give us 70s to 80s by the following weekend. but thats far out and it can change.

  46. The problem is not many people care about drought conditions, the only way they will care is when they turn on there faucet and there’s no water that’s when u will get there attention until then it will be like talking to a wall enjoy 🙂

    1. Charlie I mentioned last night that our neighbors had a fire in their firepit. I just smelled smoke and of course it worried me with woods behind our house so went outside. The fire they had is still smoking – a fair amount. I called the fire dept – not giving names – and asked if you could have fires outside. He said today is not red flag so it’s ok today but last night we were in a red flag area and it was illegal – and he added that the fact that it is still smoldering means in the wind last night it could easily have had embers that blew to a house or into the woods behind.

      Just proving your point that too many do not care until it affects them and by that time it could be catastrophic

      1. Yikes….That’s not good. Even in the damp, usually wet woods of a campground, most people, ourselves included always water down a camp fire when we need to walk away from it….day or night.

        1. I know and these are difficult neighbors. They think the sun sets on their kids heads and get angry if we ask the kids not to hit our cars with their baseballs and hockey pucks. I’m not sure they wouldn’t deliberately leave it burning more if we said something.

          2. there are these kids on our street that decide to go around vandalizing and thinking they are all cool

  47. 12z GFS rain totals for the coastal storm(s) early next week. A real good soaking! This would put a serious dent in the drought conditions.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=04%2F18%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p60&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=150&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

        1. It looks like a good soaking over an extended period (if this verifies). I don’t think flooding will be a huge concern. It’s not like the ground is already saturated from any previous storm events. But a good 3″ of rain would make up for nearly half of the current rainfall deficit for the year in many parts of SNE.

    2. In this pattern I can’t jump on board with that run, the euro has more consistent from run to run. but we sure could use it.

  48. Does anyone know what determines when it’s a red flag warning? I know it was hotter yesterday and there was more wind but it’s just as dry today so why was yesterday red flag and today isn’t?

    1. I don’t know for sure but I would guess it is related to the wind speed and relative humidity.

      1. Yes..per Taunton NWS warning criteria……relative humidities less than 30% at any point during the day, wind sustained or frequent gusts > 25 mph, < 0.25 inches of precip last 5 days and a general condition of very dry fuels around. Guessing lighter wind speeds and slightly higher RH's are the reason it is not in effect today.

        1. Thank you both. Makes little sense to me that today is All that less dangerous but what can I say

  49. Henry Margusity ‏ @Henry_Margusity
    If I see one tweet about snow in NYC next week, I am going to scream!

  50. Joe Bastardi
    euro goes ballistic, but a bit further east than I think, Cant remember that deep a low this late with such implications

  52. Wow, the 12z Euro is a complete BOMB with a 985 mb coastal storm moving up the coast from Delaware to near Boston by 12z Tuesday. Heavy rain and wind, with potential for heavy snow in the Appalachains.

    1. Pure pile of junk, blaming Matt Souza for doing it, when really the user name is just “Matt”.

      2. The real poster may be a troll too. They like to post and then post a reply to themselves. Sad, isn’t it?

        1. the entire post did not go through when i though it did. i did type that it was from you at the end

  54. First time in my life that I can say I’m excited for work tomorrow! Every year this week we participate in the Take Your Child to Work Day program. The kids go around to different groups and do fun activities throughout the day. So my particular group decided to do a session about weather, with some influence from me, lol. We’re having the kids make a weather station. Included is a rain guage with a log sheet (hopefully they can use it this weekend), anamometer, and a barometer. Lets hope I can keep them occupied and interested for an hour!

    1. AceMaster – that is a blast and how far the day’s plans have come. It used to be take your daughter to work day. My girls always went with my husband and my son would stay home to see what I do for work. But it was informal. Please let us know about it……………very exciting!

      1. It’s so much fun Vicki! Ur right, its come a long way. I didn’t have a sister growing up but I always remember being jealous when the girls in my class got to see their parents work. I’m fortunate enough to work in lab/manufacturing setting so its easier to come up with things to do with the kids. Last year I made a mini golf course made out of all recycled materials, the kids had a blast. I’ll def let u know how tomorrow goes!

        1. hahahahaha – my husband works in a lab also and he used to have a lot of stuff for the kids to test out. My daughter still calls one of the things he used the “sucker uppers” I LOVE the mini golf idea! He was not that clever!

      1. Ignore the above link….if you google it as ECMWF 240 hr loop first, then you’ll get a more specific site than listed above.

            1. I think it might be….on the 0z panel, I’m seeing today’s date with the 12z marking and on the 144hr panel, I see the 985 mb low over eastern Mass.

    1. The quote on the bottom of my above post is from Henry Margusity, by the way. So if he is throwing it away, consider this storm in the bag!

        1. I think I agree with Henry. Both the GFS and EURO went further east from their 0z runs. This is above my knowledge of meteorology, but might this infer that the 12z runs are projecting the phasing of the jet streams to occur a bit later ? If phasing took place earlier, I’d think the surface low would get caught and brought on a more westward track.

  57. awww Dick Clark died – what an American idol – in the true sense of the word. I remember back in third grade watching American Bandstand

  60. Don’t buy the Euro.
    Don’t think we see big rain Sunday/Monday.
    Boston < 1". Blog is updated!

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