DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

A saturated air mass has provided a foggy overnight and early morning for a fair portion of the WHW forecast area as the wind field has been very weak from the northeast with maritime modified polar air in place. Other than a few wind gusts around 20 MPH over Cape Cod, the region has weak wind between TS Odette well offshore and a weak approaching cold front from the northwest. The proximity of Odette will not allow the circulation to drag too much drier air into the region today, as well as being on the “humid” side of the approaching cold front. This combines to make for stubborn cloud cover and areas of fog. The fog will gradually dissipate where it is as we slowly warm the air mass enough to elevate the temperatures away from the dew points, but the clouds may be very slow to break, with the greatest chance for at least partial sun being away from the shoreline and especially southern NH through central MA to northeastern CT. If you see much if any sun in southeastern MA, for example, it will be a bonus. All in all though, not a terrible day if you can handle a little humidity without heat, and a lack of sunshine. It’s not a wash-out or a heavy rain event like we’ve seen a fair amount of times during the last 2 1/2 months of summer. The aforementioned cold front will be the introduction to drier air from Canada, and as the boundary crosses the region from northwest to southeast later this evening it can produce a few showers and even a brief thunderstorm in a few locations. Some areas will be missed by the showers, but nobody will be missed by the drier air moving in during the early morning hours of Sunday. This is the beginning of a stretch of very nice weather which is going to last for the remainder of astronomical summer, ending the season on a note much different than it will be remembered for. High pressure will still be centered to the northwest of New England Sunday, with dry air coming in on a modest northerly air flow under lots of sun. Pretty much 100% of the possible sun is expected both Monday and Tuesday as the center of the high slides across northern New England then into the waters east of New England, with enough dry air to keep ocean clouds from forming and moving ashore despite a regionwide northeast to southeast air flow Monday / Tuesday. By Wednesday, this high will have sunk a little further to the south, putting our region into a more southerly air flow. The forecast dilemma for that day when it was in the medium range was the timing of the next trough / frontal system from the west. Typical model differences have been present, with 2 out of 3 major global models holding the next front off until after Wednesday, keeping that day dry, warmer, and a little more humid. The other model, which has faster timing, has indicated shower activity and higher humidity for Wednesday, but the last 2 runs of this model have actually slowed the trough and front down a little, not quite to the timing of the other guidance, but slower nonetheless. Based on this, I’m leaning toward the rain-free scenario with warmer temperatures and a slight up-tick in humidity for the final hours of astronomical summer. The autumnal equinox occurs at 3:20 p.m. Wednesday.

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and patchy light drizzle through mid morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny (best shot of sun inland areas) midday-afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible mid to late evening from northwest to southeast. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH but a few gusts around 15 MPH are possible.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

A trough and cold front arriving from the west is expected to bring lots of clouds and periods of showers to the region September 23. Current timing favors cooler/drier air arriving September 24 but a chance of a shower as an upper level disturbance crosses the region from west to east. High pressure brings fair weather to the region for the September 25-26 weekend. Next trough from the west brings an unsettled weather threat for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

The overall weather pattern should feature a general west-to-east flow. Shower chances are present early in the period and again at the end of the period. We may see a brief but significant shot of cool air in the September 29 to October 1 window.

C-19 Chat Post – September 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

The cold front that crawled across our region late Wednesday and Thursday is washing out near the South Coast today, never really having delivered much dry air, and now we have an established onshore air flow for today and tonight as low pressure organizes off the US Mid Atlantic Coast and heads north then northeastward. A combination of moisture from this low and the old frontal boundary keeps the chance of showers near the South Coast, especially Cape Cod and the Islands, for a while today, but the bulk of the moisture from this low will be passing southeast of New England through early Saturday. The low itself is acquiring tropical characteristics and will likely become a tropical depression and eventually a tropical storm as it makes its trek over the water off the coast. This has some indirect impact on our weekend, sending higher swells and rough surf back to the coast, increasing rip current risk for late-season beach visits. Use caution if planning to be in the water, especially Sunday. As for our weekend weather, drier air will start to move in as that low moves away during Saturday, but a weakening cold front will also be moving across the region from the northeast Saturday evening. It looks like most of the shower activity with this front will stay to the north of our area. High pressure then builds in during Sunday through early next week, the center of it probably staying just north to east of the region, with fair weather being the result.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers Cape Cod and Islands region mainly this morning. Patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal locations. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Foggy areas. Lows 60-67. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start with areas of fog, then increasing sun especially away from the coast. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible mid to late evening. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind variable to E 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

High pressure shifts offshore by the beginning of this period with a warm start to the period. The next weather questions to answer will be the timing of a trough / cold front from the west, which I think comes through sometime September 23 with an opportunity for showers, before drier and cooler air comes in behind that for September 24 before it warms up September 25. Will watch for the approach of the next weather system with wet weather chances for the very end of the period, though it may be slow enough to allow our region to get through the September 25-26 weekend rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Wet weather may start this period before a shot of dry and cooler air, a quick warm-up, more unsettled weather, then another shot of cool air to end September and start October. While timing is lower confidence the confidence is higher for an overall west-to-east pattern being the cause of the changeable weather.

C-19 Chat Post – September 17 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

A slow moving cold front is now across RI and southeastern MA and crawling to the southeast, and will come to a stop and lose its identity over the next 24 hours. Before that happens, some energy moving across our region, combined with the contrasts created by the frontal boundary, continue to produce a fairly decent area of showers and embedded thunderstorms in the vicinity of the boundary, and lighter scattered showers to the northwest. This activity will gradually diminish during the day. Clouds will hang around though for the remainder of today, tonight, and through Friday. We will also be watching low pressure to the south of New England which will be moving north to northeast, staying offshore, but close enough to possibly toss some bands of shower activity into the region at times Friday and Friday night. The low should pull far enough to the northeast so that drier air is drawn in during Saturday with improving weather, but cannot rule out a few pop up showers from leftover instability. High pressure builds in with fair, warming weather Sunday and Monday.

TODAY: Cloudy with scattered to numerous showers including embedded thunderstorms favoring RI and southeastern MA during this morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of a few showers this afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers evening. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated midday and afternoon showers possible. Highs 66-73. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure is expected to bring dry weather and above normal temperatures to the region September 21-22. Current indications are that a trough and cold front will pass through from west to east sometime September 23 with a shower threat, followed by another area of high pressure building in with more fair weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

General west-to-east flow. Expected timing of disturbances with passing shower threats September 26 and 29. A brief shot of cooler air follows the first one and a sharper shot of chilly air may follow the second one to end the month.

C-19 Chat Post – September 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

A warm front is pushing through the region early this morning and will open the door for a late-season summer blast of warmth and humidity today with a gusty wind to go along with it. A cold front will be approaching later in the day but won’t get here until the late night hours tonight into the early morning hours of Thursday. A line or two of thunderstorms spawned by the front will be quite strong to our northwest and west later in the day, but will be on a weakening trend as it enters the northwestern part of the WHW forecast area by this evening. We’ll have to keep an eye on it still for a few surviving stronger cells and some gusty winds, but I think the more powerful severe potential will have been lost in a lot of the activity by the time it gets here. The remnants of this line and the spawning of newer showers as the front crosses the region overnight will bring the shower chance to most areas. The front will hang up near the South Coast and wash out, its remnants pushing back to the north during Thursday as the focus for some scattered shower activity in the region with lots of clouds lingering. Low pressure to the south may develop into a tropical depression or even minimal tropical storm as it makes a run at our region on Friday, but the trends continue to be for the bulk of this system to pass southeast of our area. It still brings the threat of some rainfall for a portion of Friday, but it doesn’t look like a widespread heavy rainfall event. I still like the trend for the weekend. Improvement is expected Saturday as the low pulls away, and a great late summer day is expected Sunday as high pressure builds in.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Humid – dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Humid – dew point above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms especially RI and southeastern MA during early and mid morning. Isolated showers possible thereafter. Highs 69-74. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

High pressure is expected to bring dry weather and above normal temperatures to the region September 20-22. A trough approaching from the west brings an increased chance of shower activity later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

A transition to a stronger westerly flow will start to take place, but we will have to keep an eye on potential tropical activity off or near the East Coast. Temperature departure from normal expected to be above but may turn sharply cooler at the very end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – September 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

A weak area of high pressure to the north today is enough to provide some nice weather. The warm front approaching from the southwest doesn’t have a solid area of cloudiness with it, instead being the focus of clusters of showers and thunderstorms in a fairly narrow zone southwest of New England. This frontal boundary will move across our region overnight / early Wednesday with the chance of a few showers and a thunderstorm along it, but not a solid area of rainfall. It will introduce a gusty southwesterly wind and high humidity for Wednesday, a day that will have the feel of summer with a sun/cloud mix. A cold front approaching from the northwest parented by low pressure moving eastward to our north will be timed late enough that I still think we escape a severe weather threat. We likely see general showers and thunderstorms moving in Wednesday night, in weakening form, that had been much stronger to the west during the day. The frontal boundary will then slog its way across the WHW forecast area early Thursday with additional showers possible, and while the boundary itself never gets that far beyond us, we may see enough dry air work in for some partial improvement Thursday afternoon. It’s at that time our attention will turn to low pressure to the south. While this system may become a tropical depression or even minimal tropical storm, it doesn’t concern me just for being a potential tropical entity, as it doesn’t look like it would turn into a formidable system with wind and torrential rainfall. However, it will contain tropical moisture, and its track should be close enough to at least bring some rainfall into the region during Friday. There are still some differences of output across models as to how much rain gets in here and with the track of the system itself, and also its speed of movement. I remain optimistic at this time that it does move far enough to the north, and far enough to the east, that drier air is drawn into our region as early as Saturday for improving weather in time for the weekend, but a slower and/or further west system would change this outlook, so it’s low confidence at the time.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm overnight. Lows 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85. Humid – dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers especially in the morning. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

High pressure builds in with a dry stretch of weather early to mid period, along with a warming trend. A trough and frontal system from the west brings the chance of unsettled weather back by later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

General west-to-east flow resumes with up and down temperatures and limited shower chances but still need to watch the western tropical Atlantic for potentially putting a system somewhere near or off the East Coast.

C-19 Chat Post – September 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

An unsettled stretch of weather is at hand. This part of the forecast is a little more pessimistic sounding than I had been during the last few updates. First, the pre-dawn hours today featured a fast-moving batch of thunderstorms crossing southern NH and northern MA from west to east, a little complex of storms that was fairly well-forecast by short-range guidance. The last little hang back tail, a small meso-scale low pressure area, is crossing Metro Boston as of 7 a.m. in the form of showers and a couple downpours, but this will all be offshore very soon and other than one additional shower or two coming eastward across similar areas into mid morning, today is going to feature improvement and a nice afternoon. The small bubble of high pressure bringing the drier air in will be centered to our north as it moves to the east and the wind will shift to the east Tuesday ahead of an approaching warm front, with more clouds returning. This warm front brings the chance of showers Tuesday night and introduces warm and humid air to the region for Wednesday, a day we’ll have to watch for a shower and thunderstorm threat as a cold front approaches. I still feel the timing of this front may be late enough that we may escape the potential for stronger storms as the activity will arrive during the evening and night, but it will be something to keep an eye on. Different from my previous forecast is a more unsettled look for Thursday and Friday as the front doesn’t really get that far to the south and east before coming to a halt, and the low pressure area that I alluded to for next weekend is expected to organize and have an impact sooner than that on Friday, so lots of clouds and occasional wet weather can be expected later in the week as well, with the wettest day expected to be Friday as it stands now.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start with additional showers especially MA and southern NH into mid morning, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind variable becoming E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 58-65. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85. Humid – dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

With the earlier arrival of low pressure and things not too bogged down I am a little more optimistic today about the weather for next weekend (September 18-19) with improving conditions. After that high pressure may park off the Atlantic Coast for a warmer interlude while we again watch moisture to the south, but this is a very low confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

General west-to-east flow resumes with up and down temperatures and limited shower chances but still need to watch the western tropical Atlantic for potentially putting a system somewhere near or off the East Coast.

C-19 Chat Post – September 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

No big changes to the discussion today. In the very short term, we have another great late summer day today. Ocean swells / surf continue to settle down at the beaches, while we get to enjoy plenty of sun and warm mid September air, albeit with a little increase in humidity, but below oppressive levels. A plume of wildfire smoke has entered the region and will filter the sun today, along with some patches of clouds. A cold front approaches from the northwest this evening and an initial push of showers will likely dissipate as it moves toward the WHW forecast area, with maybe a few getting into southwestern NH or central MA this evening. But a stronger push of energy will be coming along in the form of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) which will race into southern New England, probably in weakening form, but still likely formidable, during the late evening and especially overnight hours. It remains to be seen where the strongest part(s) of this system, in terms of heaviest showers/thunderstorms will track. It will basically come down to radar watching. But keep in mind that any area is vulnerable to a period of heavy rain and potentially damaging wind sometime between midnight and dawn. This all should be out of here by first thing in the morning, by sunrise or shortly thereafter, other than some cloudiness and perhaps a lingering shower in eastern and southern areas. Monday ends up as a fairly nice day, not as warm as today but still nice, with lower humidity, sunshine and passing clouds. High pressure moves over the region Monday night with light wind and cooler air, but the center of this high being to the north of the region into Tuesday will allow the wind to start coming in from the east and we will have a sunny start but a cloudier finish as a warm front approaches from the west. This warm front will cross the region Tuesday night with increased humidity and a threat of showers, opening the door to warm and humid weather Wednesday after that warm front passes and before a cold front arrives. Current timing of the cold front still makes it look like a late evening or overnight (early Thursday) passage, so there will likely be a limited chance of showers and thunderstorms with it. A little wave of low pressure forming on the front may prolong the cloudiness and shower threat Thursday morning, but trend should be drier as high pressure in eastern Canada gets a bit closer to the region.

TODAY: Sun/clouds/smoke. More humid – dew point into 60s. Highs 77-84. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a shower southwestern NH and central MA. Mostly cloudy overnight with showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which may produce heavy rain and strong wind gusts.. Humid – dew point in 60s. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower in the morning favoring eastern MA and RI. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny start, mostly cloudy finish. Highs 70-77. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid – dew point 60s to 70. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Humid – dew point 60s. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers during the morning. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. Drying. Highs 73-80. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Weaker west-to-east flow. High pressure should shift from north of the region to east of the region with fair weather and a warming trend the first couple days of the period. Mid period we need to watch low pressure to the south which may make a run at the region with a shower or rain threat and also may miss to the southeast. A frontal boundary should also move through from the west about September 20 with a push of drier air to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

The general weather patter should still favor west to east flow but with the jet stream fairly far north we remain vulnerable to tropical moisture from the south should the set-up draw it northward again.

C-19 Chat Post – September 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

First, I need to mention that despite the fact that the large swells and rough surf are settling down in the wake of Larry’s far offshore passage, there is still enough around to result in enhanced rip current risks at the beaches this weekend, especially today, so keep that in mind if making a late summer beach visit! Otherwise, a great weekend as high pressure slides just to the south of New England then off the Mid Atlantic Coast, keeping all of today dry and the daylight and early evening hours of Sunday rain-free as it turns a bit more humid. A cold front approaches Sunday night and moves across the region from northwest to southeast late at night, at which time we will also eye the remnants of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) coming out of the Great Lakes region. The remnants of this system may move through with a batch of showers and thunderstorms during the late night Sunday / early morning Monday time frame, so we’ll have to keep an eye on it for the possibility of at least briefly heavy rainfall and gusty wind. These systems can be rather fickle and hard to pin-point in track even just a day or so in advance, as it hasn’t even formed yet, but is indicated strongly by short range guidance. Regardless, the frontal boundary will clear the region Monday morning with improved weather during the day Monday, and fair weather lasting through most of Tuesday as a small bubble of high pressure moves across the region. The front that went by early Monday will then return as a warm front moving across the region from southwest to northeast Tuesday night with a shower threat from it, then we will find ourselves in a warm and more humid southwesterly air flow for the day on Wednesday with the feel of summer back in the picture. Low pressure moving eastward to the north of the region will drag a cold front through on Wednesday night when there is the chance of a shower or thunderstorm once again.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind calm then W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. More humid – dew point into 60s. Highs 77-84. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Humid – dew point in 60s. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower in the morning favoring the South Coast. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm evening or night. Humid – dew point 60s to 70. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

While the overall flow pattern will continue to be west to east, it weakens, and timing and strength of systems becomes a little uncertain. We’ll also have to watch a low pressure area, potentially of tropical origin, from mid to late period. Current idea is that a bubble of high pressure moves in with fair weather September 16-18, starting drier then turning more humid, then shower/rain chances increase toward the September 19-20 weekend with low pressure or at least some tropical moisture moving up from the south. Adjustments will likely be needed.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

The general weather patter should still favor west to east flow but with the jet stream fairly far north we remain vulnerable to tropical moisture from the south should the set-up draw it northward. I do think we will get on push of dry Canadian air sometime early to mid period.