C-19 Chat Post – July 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

The pattern we’ve been in – yes, that pattern, the one that delivers rain at least part of every day (except one so far this month) for at least parts of the WHW forecast area. Yes, that pattern is showing signs of departing us, but not during the next 5 days, so we still have to talk about it here. However, you will note there are a couple of better days to talk about. Not really today though, which will still be a cloudy, cooler one, with a foggy/drizzly start, and additional showers possible as we go through the day and upper level low pressure moves slowly across the region. And then this low exits tonight, and drier air arrives. Hey, Tuesday may be quite the nice day! It’ll be on the humid side, but the sun will shine for more of the day than many days we’ve had recently. Is there a chance of any rain on Tuesday? Well, yes. But this time it will only take the form of a few isolated sun + humidity driven showers that form during the afternoon, mostly in central MA and southern NH, and dissipate in the evening. So for most, Tuesday will be a rain-free day, and feeling quite a bit like the season it is as it warms into the 80s for most of the region with the exception of a few coastal areas, especially Cape Cod, but even there it will still be nice. But wait, we can’t string nice days together quite yet, so we have to talk about a cold front coming through the region on Wednesday with a better shower and thunderstorm threat. There’s some question on the timing of this front, or if much of the activity will form on a pre-frontal trough, leaving us with a quieter frontal passage after that. For now, just putting the chance of this activity in there for midday through afternoon, the fine-tuning from there. That front pushes offshore that night and a nice area of high pressure builds in for Thursday, which I am going to optimistically forecast as a dry day for the entire WHW area, with lower humidity. Pop up showers should stay in the mountains to our west and north, at least I think so. And again, no two nice days in a row allowed yet! So Friday, a low pressure trough swings through the region with another chance of showers, but the wet weather may be weighted more toward the first half of the day, based on current timing, so that day may be at least partially salvaged as nice…

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle during the morning hours. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers during the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Gradual clearing, but patchy ground fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated late day showers and thunderstorms possible mainly west of I-95. Highs 80-87 except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a passing shower evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog forming in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, ending later in the day. Highs 72-79. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

Drier weather for July 24. Watching for the next low pressure system to bring a chance of some wet weather sometime in the July 25-26 time frame, but timing is uncertain, and another minor system around July 27-28, but this sounds worse than it is as these will be quick-moving systems with plenty of dry time these days as well. Temperatures near to slightly below normal for this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Overall pattern keeps us in a west to northwesterly air flow, with no major heat, temperatures near to slightly below normal, and a drier overall regime developing with fewer shower chances.

C-19 Chat Post – July 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

Low pressure ambles across the region today and settles off to the south through Monday, pushing that frontal boundary we’ve had nearby a little further south, but keeping the weather unsettled. After a fairly widespread moderate to heavy shower and thunderstorm event Saturday afternoon through early this morning, we can expect slightly widespread but still numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms today, then a decrease to scattered showers Monday and finally as the system pulls away only a few isolated lingering showers in the region for Tuesday. But when we get to Wednesday a new system cross the region with a renewed shower and thunderstorm threat before pulling away Thursday, which may end up as only the second regionally completely dry day of July so far, 22 days in…

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog, mostly early. Highs 70-77. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly S near the South Coast and NE elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic showers. Patches of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Patchy fog mainly early. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind the variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

A couple disturbances bring shower chances during this period, but the overall pattern looks drier with a general northwesterly air flow. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

The trend continues to be somewhat drier with the lack of hot weather with a dominant west to northwest flow in the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

We will continue to be in an unsettled weather pattern over the next 5 days. This weekend, a frontal boundary starts out draped across southern New England generally in the vicinity of I-90. This frontal boundary will waver around this area today as a low pressure disturbance approaches from the west. This will help initiate shower and thunderstorm development with the best chance of thunderstorms near and south of the boundary but away from the immediate South Coast. The most widespread shower activity is likely to occur during this evening and tonight. After the low pressure wave goes by the front should be pulled a little further to the south on Sunday, which will still be an unsettled day with the threat of showers. This also lingers into Monday. And just in time for this system to get out of here comes the next one into the trough that sits over our area with additional shower and thunderstorm opportunities for Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, mostly N to E in areas north of I-90 and mostly SW in areas to the south.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog mostly in the morning. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible showers. Patches of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind the variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Continuing with the idea that keeps us in the general trough position but with a little bit drier tendency and temperatures near to slightly below normal. Thete will still be a couple disturbances we will have to watch for shower activity.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

Expecting a similar pattern overall that may start to relax to a slightly warmer more zonal flow toward the end of the month.

C-19 Chat Post – July 17 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

This short-lived stint of heat and humidity will last one more day before a cold front puts an end to it, kind of. Ahead of that front is a trough, which may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms as it approaches the region today, and the front itself will quietly amble its way overnight into but once again probably not all the way through the region, and will be sitting around the South Coast region basically from Saturday through Monday, bringing the temperatures down, but allowing the humidity levels to stay on the higher side (noticeable but not oppressive) and as we have seen so many times recently, disturbances coming along this boundary will bring us chances for some rainfall. Timing the rain chances is rather difficult, but right now Saturday evening / night looks like the wettest part of the weekend, but shower chances will probably continue Sunday and into Monday as well. I’d love to say with confidence that Tuesday would be drying out with high pressure moving in, but we may actually have an upper low moving in with another risk of shower and thunderstorm activity. As bad as this sounds, this is the signal of a change in the pattern which is eventually going to bring us into a drier regime. More to come on that, but first the detailed forecast for this 5-day period…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Scattered to broken linear showers and thunderstorms forming early afternoon southwestern NH and central MA moving east southeast, peaking in the I-95 and I-90 areas mid afternoon before weakening while traveling toward the South Coast by late afternoon. Highs 84-91, cooler some coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but some coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A possible morning shower, then scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable to N, shifting to E, up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog mostly in the morning. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible showers. Patches of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

A little more confident that we enter a pattern where we’ll be in low pressure troughing aloft more often than not, but also with systems moving along as they come through the trough, with limited time for precipitation. This pattern is cooler and somewhat drier.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

Current thinking is that the pattern of DAYS 6-10 will continue here as well.

C-19 Chat Post – July 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

Early this morning there are some patches of fog and stratus in valleys well inland, and in sections of southeastern NH and eastern MA, and if you’re under one of these you may be thinking “here we go again”, but today will be different. All of that low stuff will burn off during this morning and we’ll have a day much more full of sun than any we’ve seen in recent memory. Also, the dew point may come down a bit from yesterday, although it will warm beyond yesterday’s levels – so basically, the feel of summer is coming back! I do think today it will take place without anything more than the most remote chance of an isolated shower popping up somewhere, so remote that it’s not even showing up in my detailed forecast that follows this discussion. But that will change on Friday, not drastically, but enough to put it in the forecast as we see a cold front approaching from the west while some heat and humidity remain in place. I don’t think Friday’s activity will end up very widespread, but we will have to watch for some showers and storms to fire up and move into the region during the afternoon hours. Anything that forms will vanish by Friday evening, but that front will be nearby this coming weekend, and its exact placement will help determine where showers and thunderstorms occur. I’m not looking for a weekend wash-out by any stretch, but just note that we’ll be unsettled once again. This may linger into Monday depending on how far offshore that front is able to push – something that’s slightly indeterminable at this point…

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog until mid morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s to near 70 early may trend downward slightly. Wind W up to 10 MPH but developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog mostly in the morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Possible showers. Patches of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

Some guidance is a little more emphatic about troughing and more unsettled weather during this period, and given the recent pattern my leaning is just to include a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms but plenty of dry time as well, and temperatures that don’t include excessive heat, but don’t fall all that far below normal either. More evaluation needed.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

Pattern relaxation, westerly flow, a couple disturbances with shower and thunderstorm opportunities and mostly near normal though slightly variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – July 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

We take one more step toward a more classic summer feel today but we’re not quite there yet. After a fairly overcast day with a few showers moving through yesterday, last night we saw the formation of fog in much of the region as the temperature which was already on the cooler side met a rising dew point. Today, they both rise further, and it’ll be tough to break up both the fog and the cloud cover, but while many areas do eventually lose the fog as the temperature out-rises the dew point, the dew point will climb high enough so that you’ll notice it. What happens during the day today to our west is that a disturbance moving eastward will trigger some pretty decent thunderstorms, which will make it into western portions of the WHW forecast area later today into this evening. What happens from there is dependent on how much daytime heating we can manage further east. Glancing at the short range set of models, I see a variety of outcomes, with some of them killing the convection completely while others hold onto scattered but weaker showers/storms as they move eastward. I’m basically playing this in the middle today with the chance of some scattered to isolated activity making it all the way east, but in much weaker form than it started out. Finally we get back into the typical feel of summer for Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds offshore and aloft as well, setting up warm to hot and fairly humid conditions, though a westerly breeze (vs. southerly today) may help dry us out slightly on Thursday, at least in terms of the dew point going down a bit. It may not be that noticeable as it will be warmer / hotter. The dew point creeps back up Friday into Saturday, not to astronomical levels, but certainly humid enough. I’m not thinking the chances of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are really there at all Thursday, as I was yesterday, but keeping them in the forecast for Friday, again very low coverage. Saturday, as a cold front approaches, the chance of showers and storms increase. That front is likely to struggle its way through the region during Sunday, which will be unsettled with additional showers and storms around as it stands now…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially this morning. Highs 76-83, cooler Cape Cod. Dew upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing evening shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly north and west of Boston and especially west of I-95. Patchy fog redeveloping. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, could be briefly gusty near any showers/storms.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog mostly in the morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

A few days of mainly dry weather are expected with a westerly air flow aloft and high pressure in control at the surface for the early to mid portion of next week before the next frontal system brings higher humidity and a shower/thunderstorm threat after that.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

The trend to less active weather in terms of shower and storm threats, still present but less prominent with overall drier with mostly seasonable summer warmth, maybe a hotter day or two.

C-19 Chat Post – July 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

While we start this 5-day period considerably cooler than normal, with a frontal boundary sitting to our south, taking until sometime Wednesday to lift across the region, we are about to see some changes in our pattern, eventually leading to a more typical summertime set-up. But these are slow changes, first with the aforementioned warm front lifting through the region gradually, causing a couple more rounds of showers – a few around this morning, possibly a few more around overnight or early Wednesday. Later Wednesday, we’ll be in the warm sector but will lack complete clearing while a cold front approaches from the west. This cold front will be losing its identity as it pushes eastward as the air mass behind it, while a bit drier, is not really any cooler than the air mass it will be meeting ahead of it. However, with some daytime heating and instability, expect thunderstorms to fire off west of here, in NY State, during the day Wednesday, and remain strongest as they move into western New England, west of the WHW forecast area, during the afternoon, fading as they move eastward into the forecast area during the late afternoon and early evening, with just remnant activity probably all that is left, maybe never reaching the eastern coastal areas at all except for a few isolated survivors. So, if you have outdoor plans today and/or tomorrow, while it won’t be perfect summer weather, much of the time will indeed be rain-free. Just keep an eye on radar if you can, just in case. When we get to the Thursday-Saturday period, we have 3-days of more typical summertime heat and humidity as high pressure builds aloft and surface high pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Each of these days will have the risk of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but don’t read into this as being the same soaking wet pattern we’ve been in. The chance of any activity will be minimal Thursday, just isolated at best, and with no more than a slight up-tick in the chance and coverage on Friday. It will be Saturday when we see a slightly better chance of showers and storms as a cold front moves into the region, but don’t get too nervous about your weekend plans at this point.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of passing showers until mid morning. Areas of fog early. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Areas of fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early morning with a possible shower. Highs 77-84, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possibly early, especially west of I-95. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

A weak westerly flow will become dominant but to start the period a cold front will likely remain in the vicinity for July 18 with additional showers and thunderstorms possible before drier weather for a few days until the next system returns the chance of showers/storms later in the period. This is a departure from the much wetter pattern we’d been experiencing.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

The trend to less active weather in terms of shower and storm threats, still present but less prominent with overall drier with mostly seasonable summer warmth, maybe a hotter day or two.

C-19 Chat Post – July 13 2021