7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
High pressure brings a nice late November day to the region today, and is a little hint of what returns at the end of this period as well. Between these 2 nice days lies some changeable weather, with 2 unsettled days, the first on Friday from a low pressure area tracking across southeastern Canada, southern New England on the mild side, with more cloudiness than anything and only a limited precipitation threat from a passing warm front pre-dawn and a passing cold front late-day. The second unsettled day will be due to low pressure developing in the south central US and tracking over or just south of southern New England Sunday, bringing a rainy spell (higher elevations may see a mix). This system does not look like a big storm and we’ll also have to eye the timing of rain’s end with regard to the Patriots home game. One other note! If the sky is clear enough tonight, we have the potential to see a brief meteor storm, dubbed the “Unicorn Meteor Storm” as earth passes through a very narrow stream of comet debris. It is no guarantee but a rate of up to 400 meteors per hour is possible but over a very short time window of 11:40PM to midnight. If we did see anything the radiant direction would be from the southeast, near Monoceros Constellation. If it looks like it will be clear enough and you want to try to see this, get to as dark an area as possible. Good luck!
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. A period of light rain/sleet possible northern MA / southern NH pre-dawn. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, brief mix interior higher elevations, tapering off late. Highs 38-45 south. Wind NE 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with lingering drizzle and areas of fog. Clearing overnight. Watch for black ice formation. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Weather pattern expected to feature a west to east flow, storm track north of New England, with 2 cold frontal passages favoring late November 27 / early November 28 and again late November 29 early November 30. These would bring minor precipitation threats favoring rain showers. Much of the week expected to be dry with overall temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)
A storm tracking northwest of New England early in the period should produce a period of mainly rain but may be followed by a significant shot of cold air, at least briefly, before temperatures moderate. Next system (probably a Great Lakes low) may approach late period.

6:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
An ocean storm will move northeastward passing east of New England today and tonight, but an inverted trough extending back over New England will allow for unsettled weather starting out as areas of fog and drizzle then becoming rain and snow showers. The most likely areas to see snow showers will be interior locations northwest of Boston to start, then progressing south and east with time through evening, but no accumulation of snow will occur from this activity save for brief dustings on unpaved surfaces especially this evening. Dry air arrives overnight and we’ll need to watch for some spotty ice on surfaces that don’t dry off. But that dry air means a nice day Thursday as high pressure dominates. With weather systems moving right along we’ll be seeing low pressure track north of the region Friday, bringing a warm front / cold front combo across the region. The warm front may result in a touch of light rain/sleet in the pre-dawn hours on Friday, and the cold front will bring a rain shower risk later Friday, with a nice shot of mild air between the two precipitation threats. Looking ahead to the weekend, the early call is for a split, with high pressure bringing chilly but fair weather Saturday, and a low pressure area bringing a shot at some precipitation Sunday – the details to be fine-tuned as it gets closer.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Snow/rain showers end evening, then clearing. Spotty black ice. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of light rain/sleet possible northern MA / southern NH overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow possible. Highs 35-40 north, 40-45 south. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Weather pattern for Thanksgiving Week expected to feature a west to east flow, storm track north of New England, with 2 cold frontal passages favoring late November 27 / early November 28 and again late November 29 early November 30. These would bring minor precipitation threats favoring rain showers. Much of the week expected to be dry with overall temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
As we end November and head into December the pattern is likely to resemble somebody shaking a rope with lots of progressive ridges and troughs wet to east across the US, so timing things will be very difficult so far in advance. But two things we may see heading into the early days of December include the risk of a somewhat widespread snowfall and a return to somewhat colder weather.

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
There’s enough uncertainty in guidance these days for me to not do the see-saw thing, but rather make very few changes unless I glaringly see something going wrong (and this will apply to the 6-10 & 11-15 day periods below as well). So summarizing, a slug of rain (some interior higher elevations mix/snow) this morning moves northward beyond the region leaving us with clouds that may break this afternoon. Storminess we’d been eyeing for midweek evolves too far offshore for direct impact other than maybe a brief rain/snow shower Wednesday from an inverted trough that reaches from it toward southern New England, a feature somewhat common to such systems. Thursday’s the nice day in terms of the most sunshine, while Friday’s the pick-of-the-week for milder air, but it comes with cloudiness and a threat of rain showers as low pressure passes north of the region. The cold front that trails the low introduces another November chill for Saturday, but this one will not be as sharp as the series we just went through.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy morning with a period of rain that may mix with or briefly turn to snow before ending over interior higher elevations, but no snow accumulation. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of light rain/sleet possible northern MA / southern NH overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
Still low confidence but keeping the same general idea of watching 1 or 2 low pressure areas passing south of the region November 24-25, possibly close enough, especially November 24, for brief impact with precipitation, and another low pressure area probably passing north of the region later in the period with some unsettled weather at least briefly possible in the November 27-28 window. Thanksgiving is November 28 so leading up to and including that date weather will be closely watched for any travel impact.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Also a low confidence forecast but will see a westerly air flow, ridge of high pressure in the southeastern US and plenty of cold air in Canada. This puts us in a zone where we can have brief storminess but quick temperatures swings, depending on the exact set-up. There’s one scenario that could give SNE its first regional snowfall of the season somewhere in the December 1-3 window. Can’t say more than that right now.

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
We start this late autumn day with a winterish issue, and that is pockets of icing where drizzle is occurring over some inland locations. Surfaces are just cold enough in some cases, especially untreated walks, stairs, overpasses, etc., for some very light glazing as the drizzle falls into air that sits just below freezing, so be careful if you are heading out and test surfaces before you fully commit to them. The issue won’t last long, even though some areas of light rain will be moving in as an ocean storm passes by today, because temperatures will rise to above freezing in all areas, although not that far above, making it a very chilly and raw mid November day. Incidentally, some locations will receive more rainfall from a follow-up disturbance crossing the region Tuesday morning than they see today, and that ran may mix with or even end as snow with borderline temperatures over interior higher elevations by midday Tuesday. Beyond that, the departure of this system and the further offshore evolution of another storm Wednesday mean gusty and chilly but drier weather into midweek. If there is a pick of this 5-day period it will no doubt be Thursday, as it will be fair and slightly milder as high pressure passes to the south of the region. However the mildest day of the stretch will be Friday, but the trade-off will be rain showers returning as low pressure tracks north of the region and drags a warm front through very early in the day and a cold front across the region later.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of drizzle, some freezing drizzle especially interior locations west of I-95 through mid morning. Periods of light rain (maybe briefly heavier Cape Cod) mid morning on. Highs 33-40. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast, gusts 30-50 MPH possible Cape Ann and Cape Cod. Minor coastal flooding around high tide times.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of light rain evening. Areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations, during the evening before diminishing somewhat overnight.
TUESDAY: Cloudy morning with a period of rain that may mix with or briefly turn to snow before ending over interior higher elevations, but no snow accumulation. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of light rain possible northern MA / southern NH overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
The weekend before Thanksgiving and the days leading up to the holiday are big food shopping and travel days, along with a handful of regular (or irregular) work commutes, and are vulnerable to foul weather. The weather pattern during this period, likely to be dominated by a fast west to east flow, makes it a little difficult to pin down what will happen so many days in advance. For example, 3 different medium range models have 3 different solutions for the November 23-25 period. What I do know is that we will likely watch a low pressure system or two passing south of the region sometime between late November 23 and November 25, but it is not clear at this point whether or not it will be close enough to impact the weather directly in southern New England. If I had to venture a gut feeling guess, it’s that after a shot of cold air for November 23, one low will come by and close enough for at least cloudiness and possible brief rain/mix as it passes by to the south early November 24, with a second one also passing south of the region November 25. This would be followed by fair weather and typical November chill for November 26, and then we would have to watch for another system from the west by the end of the period – way too far out for details.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
If the 6-10 DAY is low confidence, you can be assured that this further-out-in-time period is even lower confidence. I believe the overall jet stream will be a fast-flowing west to east but appearing like somebody creating waves in a rope. So the only thing I can say is that while it may not be outright stormy it may be active with several changes in the weather to track.

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
The wildcard was lower cloudiness, and we have some of that, but not too extensively, to start the day, so still some areas see sunshine for a while, but either way as the day goes on the higher cloud shield from the coastal / ocean storm to the south of New England will be increasing anyway, so sun eventually loses the battle either way. Rainfall from this system, as previously mentioned, must fight quite a bit of dry air to get going here and that particular battle won’t really be won until the early morning hours of Monday, south to north. This turns Monday wet for everyone eventually, and there still may be a few pockets of freezing rain over portions of central MA, interior northeastern MA, and interior southern NH. I don’t think the cold air will be deep enough to support any sleet. Any freezing rain will be fleeting too as temperatures warm to above freezing by midday Monday at the latest in those locations. Elsewhere, no icing issues with this. The low center passes east of New England Monday night and rain shuts off, but lower level moisture may keep drizzle going, and then Tuesday a lobe of energy or a trailing trough may produce another period of rain (maybe some mix higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH) as it pulls through the region during the morning hours. This is a change from yesterday’s thinking of temporary drying out timed for the morning. Drier air eventually gets in later Tuesday and may be more dominant than previously expected for Wednesday as another storm system evolves well offshore and is not a factor in the weather here, other than to help freshen a northweterly wind between itself and high pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. This high will pass south of the region resulting in a very nice Thursday, which puts us to exactly one week before Thanksgiving…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain arrives south to north overnight. Pockets of sleet/freezing rain possible interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly morning through early afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy morning with a period of rain except possibly some ice/sleet central MA and southwestern NH. Variably cloudy afternoon.
Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Low pressure passes north of the region and drags a frontal system through on November 22 with unsettled weather. Dry/chilly November 23. Another low passes south of the region November 24, possibly close enough for rain and even some mix. Fair, chilly weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
Will watch for another frontal system passing through around the start of the period from a low that will track across southeastern Canada, exact timing not clear this far out. Another relatively minor system should be passing by around November 29, but again timing uncertain. Overall westerly flow with changeable temperatures but nothing too extreme.

7:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
We are just beyond the mid point of this next-to-last month of 2019 and we’ve been feeling hints of winter, in some cases more than hints, like the sharpness of a couple cold air masses that had their sources in Siberia or near the North Pole. Santa must be in the spirit early! Anyway, another shot of that air is with us now, a little less stinging than the previous one, but nevertheless if you are outside today you’ll feel it, despite the bright but low angle November sunshine that rose in the 6AM hour and will say goodnight before 4:30PM. The high pressure area responsible for this latest batch of cold will not fully cross the region, but bank itself just to the north of here, then slide to the east. It will be strong enough, however, to hold a developing ocean storm south of New England somewhat at bay for a period of time, keeping it dry and at least partially sunny on Sunday as high cloudiness tries to increase across the the region while fighting dry air. A wildcard is whether or not we see any lower level ocean cloudiness come in from the east. This may be the case for some eastern areas of MA and NH and perhaps into RI. With this somewhat uncertain aspect of the forecast even 24 hours in advance I’ll keep simple wording in the details below then expand if needed for tomorrow’s update. Regardless, Sunday will be precipitation-free during the day, and probably for a good deal of the evening until finally later at night the moisture from the south starts to win the battle in more and more of the atmosphere. But this storm, unlike the NAM’s prediction of a close-to-the-coast track, is probably going to end up a little further offshore and we’ll be more on the outskirts of its envelope of moisture rather than right in the thick of it. Somewhat heavier rainfall may get close to or onto Cape Cod and perhaps near the MA eastern coast, but to me this looks largely like a lighter rain event. But what about that freezing rain/sleet that the news said may happen? Yes, it may happen, if we have enough precipitation, over interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH, so that will be something to watch for in the early hours of Monday. In some cases the ground is still too warm to support any freezing of precipitation, but there are exceptions, so it’s just better to be aware of what is possible. Any freezing/frozen stuff there will be short-lived as anything else that falls will be rain, but then the progressive nature of the system will bring it north and we’ll see a wind-down of rainfall. A few back-side patches of light rain/sleet may visit central MA and southern NH into Monday night. In previous updates I’d kept the clouds in tight for Tuesday, but enough dry air may get into the region behind the first system to clear us out at least partially for a while early Tuesday, and if we’re lucky enough it may not even by that bad a day. But what about the next system for Wednesday? Yup. It’ll be there – somewhere – probably too far offshore to have much of an impact other than a gusty northerly wind and a lot of clouds. We likely escape its entire precipitation shield but have enough unstable air over us for a rain or snow shower as temperatures will be borderline as far as precipitation-type goes. If I had to guess one way, odds favor rain showers over snow showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing slightly this afternoon. Wind chill in the 10s this morning, 20s at times this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain arrives south to north overnight. Pockets of sleet/freezing rain possible interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly morning through early afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain/ice/sleet possible central MA and southern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
Weather systems should be moving along rather swiftly and we should see a nice day to start the period November 21, a quick-moving frontal system and low pressure area with unsettled weather for at least a portion of November 22 before a shot of chilly air arrives with wind which lasts into November 23 with dry weather. Watching for a passing low pressure system (quicker than previously though) November 24 with a precipitation threat, probably rain, but may stay south. If the pattern is as progressive as I currently think then we see dry weather back for the end of the period, kind-of, as there may be another trough approaching by late November 25. Note: Not super high confidence and this may still change.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Specific timing is iffy but there may be a departing trough with rain/snow showers to start then another system sometime later in the period (November 29?) with a precipitation threat. Looks like a fast-moving weather pattern with no major storminess at this time, and dry weather the vast majority of the time.

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A warm front went by overnight, taking away whatever remained of the cold air mass that was in place. Today will be a mild day with fair weather, but 2 cold fronts are set to pass by, one this afternoon and one tonight. The second front will be producing snow showers in northern New England but the moisture with it will dry up before reaching southern New England, so tonight just some clouds will mark its passage. But you will feel the return to cold air, along with wind, behind this front for Saturday. This bubble of high pressure from Canada is going to remain centered to the north of the region during the weekend, sliding to the east, and while this happens a low pressure area will organize off the US Southeast / Mid Atlantic coast but rapidly mature and peak in strength well to the south of New England, but as it fills, broadens, and weakens gradually, it will bump up against the departing high pressure area late in the weekend and bring a breezy wet weather event to southeastern New England Sunday night into Monday. We’ll have lost any cold air aloft by then, so whatever falls from the sky will be liquid. The only risk of anything frozen taking place is a bit of sleet or freezing rain in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH Sunday night and very early Monday as just cold enough air may be in place at the surface. That system will be out of here later Monday, but a general northeasterly air flow will keep low level moisture in place through Tuesday, so at this point it does not look like much clearing will take place initially behind the low pressure system. If the air flow ends up more northerly than currently anticipated, we’d see some clearing.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill falling to the 10s overnight.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 20s.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Lowering overcast. Rain arrives south to north. Pockets of sleet/freezing rain possible interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly morning. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coast.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Another low pressure area has to be watched but current indications are it will pass pretty far offshore with just cloudiness and wind here on November 20, then a westerly air flow brings in slightly milder and dry air for November 21 before a low pressure area tracking eastward and passing north of the region November 22 brings its fronts through and results in more unsettled weather. Things moving right along means a return to fair weather for November 23, but by later November 24 we may already be eyeing low pressure tracking from the Tennessee Valley to the Mid Atlantic Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Thanksgiving Week may start with a coastal storm threat but it’s too far away to even start talking about any details. It could just as easily end up too far south for any impact. The remainder of the week looks like it will be back in a westerly air flow pattern with passing minor systems 1 or 2 times, but largely dry weather. There will be plenty of fine-tuning ahead as this is an important travel time.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
The high pressure area that brought a batch of mid winter feeling air here is on its way out and as it starts to warm both at the surface and aloft we’ll see more cloudiness today. The should be a largely precipitation-free process except the risk of some rain showers in east coastal MA and especially Cape Cod tonight. This leads to a milder Friday as a westerly air flow takes over, but a cold front coming through, also generally absent of precipitation, on Friday evening will introduce another blast of colder air for Saturday, although this one will not be to the magnitude of the one just leaving us. Saturday’s chilly blast will come along with a gusty breeze as high pressure builds across southeastern Canada. This high will sit up there on Sunday as low pressure organizes off the Mid Atlantic Coast, a low we’ll have to keep an eye on just beyond this forecast period. However it should already be spreading some high level clouds across the sky…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early sun, then mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW to S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible eastern MA especially Cape Cod. Lows 32-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Additional low pressure offshore through November 20 may result in more unsettled weather, mainly rain at times though a mix possible interior higher elevations. A more westerly flow takes over November 21-23 with a trough passage due around November 22 that may produce some rain and/or snow showers. Temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
May have to watch for one more system offshore with a precipitation threat around November 25 but not a high confidence forecast. Should be back to westerly flow mid to late period with brief rain/snow shower threats otherwise mostly dry.

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Cold air more like mid winter is here for a brief but stinging stay today, with wind making it feel even colder than the actual air temperature. Boston should break a long-standing record set in 1874 (36) for the coldest high temperature for the day (forecasting a 33). Bundle up if you’ll be outside! The bubble of arctic high pressure that brought this air to us will slide offshore by Thursday, and gradually warming air will bring more cloudiness and perhaps a snow or rain shower by evening but not looking for much out of that threat. This will hang on until early Friday and then a westerly air flow will increase as a moisture-starved trough approaches and passes, clearing it out. A cold front will pass later and bring in another brief shot of colder air for Saturday before a slight moderation takes place Sunday with high pressure in control. However this high will give way somewhat to low pressure to the south later Sunday allowing some increased cloudiness. I don’t expect that low pressure area to move too quickly or too far north to spoil the end of the weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 except 33-38 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill frequently below 20.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 except 23-28 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible. Lows 32-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH, shifting to W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Watching low pressure to the south in the November 18-21 period, likely 2 centers, either of which can impact the region with at least clouds and a gusty breeze, but may be close enough for precipitation (favoring rain). By the end of the period a dry westerly air flow should be back.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
A zonal (west to east) flow pattern with up and down temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal overall, and a couple rain shower threats, the greater one toward the end of the period.

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
Get ready for a temperature crash! But before that, we have some fog, some rain, and a bit of snow to get through. No, not big snow – not even close. But there is one tweak to the forecast today and that has to do with timing and moisture. As the cold front passes today, many areas will mix with and change to snow, and accumulation will be very minor – under 1 inch on grassy surfaces and car tops, and maybe a slushy trace on cemented or paved areas that are cold enough. The change has to do with a surge of moisture coming up behind the front just enough to keep the snow going a little longer as it gets dark over parts of southeastern MA and Cape Cod for a better chance of a coating of snow there, and a little less time for surfaces to dry off tonight as the temperature really falls. So those same areas may see a little more coverage of frozen puddles and black ice heading into Wednesday morning. Anywhere that does experience that will see it dry/sublimate due to very dry air and windy conditions through Wednesday, a day that will feel much more likely January than the middle of November. But things change quickly around here, and even though Thursday will be a very chilly day too, it will begin to moderate a bit with much less wind, and with high pressure slipping off to the east as well, an increase in moisture should lead to a few more clouds than previously indicated. Another minor tweak for this forecast is the removal of the rain shower risk for Friday, leaving just some clouds in as a cold front approaches and passes. That day itself will be milder, but a quick shot of cold air will follow this for Saturday as high pressure moves across the Upper Great Lakes into southeastern Canada.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Rain overspreading the region west to east morning, ending as mix/snow west to east mid afternoon to early evening with minor accumulation (under 1 inch) in some locations, favoring unpaved surfaces. Highs 41-46 I-495 belt northwest of Boston, 47-52 Boston-Providence corridor, 53-58 to the southeast morning and midday, with a sharp drop west to east during the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, becoming NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially north and west of Boston, from west to east during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice on many surfaces that have not dried off or been treated. Lows 15-20 except 20-25 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10, approaching 0 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 except 33-38 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill frequently below 20.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 except 23-28 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH, shifting to W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
High pressure protects the region with dry weather and a slight temperature moderation to finish off the weekend November 17. The November 18-21 period is a little more tricky as we will have high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south, and there will be a bit of a battle between the two. The weather here can range from fair, to cloudy, to wet. It will be a more moderate temperature pattern so we would not likely have any frozen precipitation to worry about, just rain, but at this point I’m giving the edge to the high pressure area to the north keeping most of the wet weather south. It may not be as successful holding the clouds off, which may also be added to by an air flow off the Atlantic. But it’s early to go into any more detail than that. Just keep in mind the potential scenario which will be fine-tuned.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-25)
A return to a zonal (west to east) flow pattern with up and down temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal overall, and a couple brief precipitation threats, mainly passing rain showers, depending on the timing of disturbances.

8:15AM

Veteran’s Day 2019. Thank you to all who have served us!

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
A 5-day period that will start mild and end mild will have quite a different story to tell between those mild bookends. We start out with mild air and lots of cloudiness ahead of a cold front slowly approaching the region today. That front will almost make it into southeastern New England but will be temporarily halted by a wave of low pressure which will pass northwest of this area during Tuesday, but as it does so, it will whip the front through more rapidly during the afternoon, causing what starts as rain to end as mix/snow for some areas (minor accumulation mainly north and west of Boston), and a sharp temperature drop, and not just to levels cold for November, but levels that would still qualify as somewhat below normal for mid winter, along with wind, Tuesday night through Wednesday. Get ready! As high pressure moves closer, passing just north of the region, Thursday will still be cold but more tranquil. As the high starts to move away, a light south wind and increasing moisture will bring milder air in but also the risk of a few snow showers (at first Thursday night) then rain showers during Friday, returning the same kind of feel to the air that we will have today. By late Friday, we may already be seeing an increase in wind as the next weather change gets ready to occur…
Forecast details…
TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Brief very light rain showers possible central MA and southern NH midday-afternoon. Highs 45-50 north and west of Boston, 50-55 Boston southward. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain overspreading the region west to east morning, ending as snow north and west of Boston with a under 1 inch accumulation on unpaved surfaces afternoon, ending as snow/rain mix Boston southward with no accumulation later in the day. Highs 45-52 northwest of Boston, 52-59 Boston southward occurring in the morning, then a sharp drop from west to east during the afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts from west to east during the afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Black ice on any roads and walkways that haven’t dried off. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Brief passing snow showers possible. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S late.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds move in. Risk of a snow shower. Lows 25-32. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH, shifting to W and increasing late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
High pressure from Canada centers itself north of the region over the weekend delivering dry, chilly air November 16 moderating slightly November 17. The high center will be close enough for fair weather November 18 then slip away enough to allow more cloudiness and additional temperature moderation November 19, but looking precipitation-free at this point. A new bubble of high pressure should arrive by the end of the period with fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
A general west to east (zonal) pattern is expected with up and down temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal overall, and a couple brief precipitation threats, mainly passing rain showers, depending on the timing of disturbances.

7:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
A little change has taken place during the night. After an evening with a mainly clear to partly cloudy sky with just areas of mid level clouds when the temperature was allowed to drop off rather quickly with light wind, we’ve seen a southerly breeze and more cloudiness arrive overnight, capping the temperature drop and evening causing it to rise in some locations. This is a result of warmer air arriving both at the surface and aloft, and while there will be somewhat less sunshine today than there was yesterday, it will be noticeably milder. This more pleasant November feel will also hold on for Veterans Day Monday, not bad at all for outdoor ceremonies and parades, even if sunshine is not plentiful. The additional cloudiness will be the signal of a cold front pressing toward the region from the northwest. Similar to the system of last Thursday, a wave of low pressure will form on this boundary and will cross close to the region Tuesday, a day that turns wet and then ends with a mix or flip to snow in some areas, especially north and west of Boston, as much colder air arrives upon the departure of the low pressure wave and passage of the front. Not looking for any significant snowfall, but as mentioned previously, there will be the threat of some wet ground freezing up with areas of ice. A quick increase in wind and drop off in dew point will help to evaporate / sublimate any water / ice, but still be aware that there may be slippery spots later Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Wednesday itself will be the coldest day of the season so far, along with wind, making it feel more like January. Expect dry weather other than a risk of a few passing light snow showers. High pressure moves in Thursday, a day that will still be cold but much more tranquil.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with or change to snow late-day central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning, falling slowly afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A weakening disturbance along with a warming air mass will bring lots of clouds and a slight risk of scattered light rain on November 15. High pressure from Canada centers itself north of the region over the weekend delivering dry, chilly air November 16 moderating slightly November 17. The high center will be close enough for fair weather November 18 then slip away enough to allow more cloudiness and additional temperature moderation November 19, but looking precipitation-free at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
A general west to east (zonal) pattern is expected. At this time not thinking much moisture will be available from the south so will have to watch for systems coming along in the zonal flow, and one such should come by around November 21 with a rain shower risk, with otherwise mainly dry weather dominating for this period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

8:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
A quick drop off in wind overnight allowed many areas to fall below my forecast range for low temperatures. That chill will hang around today, but will be more tolerable today than yesterday with much less wind. Some warming aloft will produce more in the way of cloudiness for Sunday, but it will still be a nice day overall. This will continue well into Monday, Veterans Day, making conditions favorable for outdoor ceremonies scheduled in many cities and towns. Things change Monday night, however, as a front settles into the region and moisture, enhanced by a developing low pressure wave, arrives. But like last time, we’ll have mild enough air around for mainly a rain event developing Tuesday, and also like last time, we’ll see a race between the end of the precipitation and the arrival of a much colder air mass, so some areas will likely flip to snow before everything exits Tuesday evening. Once again the greatest risk for any accumulation of snow will be north and west of Boston. If snowfall numbers need to be discussed, they will appear in Monday’s blog post. One thing is for sure, the next surge of cold air arriving Tuesday night through Wednesday will be the coldest of the season so far.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with or change to snow late-day central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning, falling slowly afternoon. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH, becoming N 5-15 MPH later.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 20 at times.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Quick transition out of the cold/wind to the chilly/tranquil with fair weather November 14. A disturbance arrives with milder air and a rain shower risk November 15 then high pressure from Canada brings a dry air mass for the November 16-17 weekend, starting out chilly then moderating, and should hold unsettled weather off well to the south through November 18 as well.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Will continue to keep an eye for potential unsettled weather originating from southwest of New England but still leaning toward dominant high pressure keeping it on the drier side for a good portion of this period. Temperatures for this period should average near to above normal.

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Our weather pattern is one that leaves New England vulnerable to shots of cold polar air from Canada, and one such shot is arriving now. Today will feel more like late December or early January due to cold air and a gusty wind, but other than the remote risk of a brief rain or snow shower from ocean moisture over Cape Cod and the remote risk of an orographically-induced snow flurry over the higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA during the day, it will be dry. The cold and wind will continue into tonight, making it rather uncomfortable for high school football games. If you will be at one of these, dress for mid winter conditions. The weekend, a 3-day for many as Monday is Veterans Day, will be generally nice, but starting out rather cold on Saturday. However less wind will make it more tolerable than today will be. By Sunday, some cloudiness may be around at times as a disturbance moves through, but it will be slightly milder. It looks like an approaching cold front will be sluggish getting through the region on Veterans Day Monday, and the front being starved for moisture initially means just some cloudiness is expected but with temperatures on the milder side. Just as the cold front is coming through later Monday and Monday evening it will likely be halted and temporarily pushed back a bit north as the progressive nature of the pattern is going to allow low pressure to develop sooner and move more quickly along the boundary, moving north of the region during the first half of Tuesday. This set-up will be similar to what we just went through and we should see a band of rain or rain showers which may end as snow showers or a period of snow especially north and west before the front pulls through and much colder air starts its arrival later Tuesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill middle to upper 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible mainly midday and afternoon, may end as snow or snow showers north and west late in the day. Highs 43-50, but a sharp drop late-day or night. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 15-25 MPH late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Coldest air of the season so far along with wind and dry weather with only a slight risk of an isolated snow shower for November 13. Continued cold but less wind November 14 as high pressure moves in. Disturbance arrives with milder air and a rain shower risk November 15. High pressure returns from Canada with another dry and chilly air mass for November 16-17 but not as cold as the previous shot.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
A little tricky here as medium range guidance says “hey, watch for a coastal storm” but I’ve seen this indicated before in this pattern and it doesn’t really come to fruition, so I have my doubts for now and will lean toward southern energy staying south and northern energy staying mostly north and just sending fronts through with overall dry weather, brief precipitation (mainly rain shower) threats with overall moderating temperatures, not too far from or slightly above normal. This is not a high confidence forecast at this time.

6:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
A cold front will approach southeastern New England today, sending clouds and eventual rain into the region later today into tonight. This front is the leading edge of a cold polar air mass from Canada which will be moving in tonight as the precipitation gets ready to end overnight, and will be quick enough north and west of Boston to flip the rain to at least mix and probably snow before it moves out. There’s an outside change that the rain/snow mix makes it all the way to Boston but no guarantee. Either way, if there is any accumulation at all, it will be minor and fleeting in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. The bigger story will be the wind and cold air on Friday which will make it feel more like early winter. Brr! The wind will keep up into Friday night, and any late-season high school football games will be played with wind chills as low as the teens as the air temperature falls from the 30s into the 20s. Saturday will be dry and cold, but the wind will ease up a bit so it will not feel as cold as Friday. A slight change to the weekend forecast is that a small disturbance and warming air aloft will combine to produce some cloudiness for Sunday, though temperature moderation will occur. By Monday, Veterans Day, an approaching cold front looks like it will be a little slower, allowing at least the morning and midday hours to be reasonably comfortable for outdoor Veterans Day ceremonies that are scheduled for many cities and towns.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain possible, favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mixing with or changing to snow north and west of Boston with some minor accumulation possible favoring higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH, and briefly mixing with snow into Metro Boston (staying rain further southeast) while tapering off around or shortly after midnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill middle to upper 20s at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to N late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
The front that comes through Monday will sit just south of the region and allow a wave of low pressure to move up along it on Tuesday (Nov 12) with rain/mix more likely than snow, but still need to watch as changes are possible. Wednesday (Nov 13) should see clearing, windy, much colder weather behind the departing wave, before high pressure moves in for a cool but more tranquil Thursday (Nov 14). Current timing would take a weak disturbance in from the west for Friday (Nov 15) with milder air and a risk of rain showers, before a chilly high pressure area approaches and clears the region out with a colder wind for Saturday (Nov 16).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
Dry, moderating temperatures as high pressure dominates early in the period. Some unsettled weather is possible middle or later portion of the period with milder air more dominant.