Thursday Forecast

58 Comments

7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
High pressure brings a nice late November day to the region today, and is a little hint of what returns at the end of this period as well. Between these 2 nice days lies some changeable weather, with 2 unsettled days, the first on Friday from a low pressure area tracking across southeastern Canada, southern New England on the mild side, with more cloudiness than anything and only a limited precipitation threat from a passing warm front pre-dawn and a passing cold front late-day. The second unsettled day will be due to low pressure developing in the south central US and tracking over or just south of southern New England Sunday, bringing a rainy spell (higher elevations may see a mix). This system does not look like a big storm and we’ll also have to eye the timing of rain’s end with regard to the Patriots home game. One other note! If the sky is clear enough tonight, we have the potential to see a brief meteor storm, dubbed the “Unicorn Meteor Storm” as earth passes through a very narrow stream of comet debris. It is no guarantee but a rate of up to 400 meteors per hour is possible but over a very short time window of 11:40PM to midnight. If we did see anything the radiant direction would be from the southeast, near Monoceros Constellation. If it looks like it will be clear enough and you want to try to see this, get to as dark an area as possible. Good luck!
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. A period of light rain/sleet possible northern MA / southern NH pre-dawn. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, brief mix interior higher elevations, tapering off late. Highs 38-45 south. Wind NE 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with lingering drizzle and areas of fog. Clearing overnight. Watch for black ice formation. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Weather pattern expected to feature a west to east flow, storm track north of New England, with 2 cold frontal passages favoring late November 27 / early November 28 and again late November 29 early November 30. These would bring minor precipitation threats favoring rain showers. Much of the week expected to be dry with overall temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)
A storm tracking northwest of New England early in the period should produce a period of mainly rain but may be followed by a significant shot of cold air, at least briefly, before temperatures moderate. Next system (probably a Great Lakes low) may approach late period.

58 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. Here is the Euro snow from my service that uses a proprietary algorithm to
      compute snow based on temperatures at various levels. It has always
      seemed to be a bit high, but I for one would not cut it in 1/2. Perhaps
      cut it by 1/4 and use about 3/4 of that.

      But TK will tell you the real deal that the EURO snow amounts are full
      of Crap. 🙂

      https://imgur.com/a/WL2vYPG

  4. Philip and anyone else interested, here is a display of the Boston Buoy output
    that includes a comparison to average. Boston buoy is located 16 nautical miles
    due East of Boston and it is the location we generally use to obtain the ocean
    temperature. Seems very reasonable to me.

    https://imgur.com/a/B0A4mnC

  5. Vicki,

    Saw your post from last night. I am happy that you and your family enjoyed/are enjoying Heartland. There is a 12th season on the way… 🙂

    3. Very exciting Arod. Wishing you tremendous success.

      GREAT to see you here. I believe we had some snow on the ground a year ago now.

    4. Best of luck.
      Your’e here. Does this mean snow is on the horizon?????

      So from what locale will you be reporting your snow conditions?

  7. So the patriots game might be wet and cold. Seems like we can’t get one patriots game with decent conditions lately.

  9. I didn’t realize there were icy road conditions earlier today, though TK had it in the forecast to’watch for some spotty ice on surfaces that don’t dry off.

    This is per WCVB
    BOXFORD, Mass. —
    A van has rolled over into the median on Interstate 95, resulting in serious injuries. State police confirmed there were multiple injuries in this crash.

    State police added that troopers were responding to a number of crashes due to the icy morning conditions.

    I think there was a second rollover on 95/Route 1 with a tractor trailer truck. Roads are fine now though.

  10. 12Z NAM now wants to take the Sunday system South of us Fringing us with
    the Northern edge of the precipitation field.

      1. 🙂 🙂 🙂
        Up on the mountain (Arizona Ski Bowl on the slopes of Humphrey’s Peak – the highest elevation in Arizona), they received 19 inches of white gold. I think they are due to open the ski area this weekend. We shall see. They are making snow like crazy today, so I would believe that is in preparation for the opening.

        fwiw Flagstaff annual snowfall is about 100 inches. 🙂

  22. Good PM!

    Ice: Yeah I had it in the forecast but it was even a little more widespread than I thought. Bottom line is, people that live around here need to be aware of what can happen. I’m not sure why people think wet roads with temperatures having fallen into the 20s are ok to drive full speed on while not paying attention.

    11/24 event: This is not a snow event for SNE. Maybe brief mix/snow higher elev’s.

    Hoping for clear enough sky tonight JUST IN CASE that meteor storm takes place. Already high cloudiness approaching so it doesn’t look great, but sometimes you have dry air mixing at high levels so you get areas of clearer sky. We’ll see what happens.

    This 5-day period is not really gloomy at all. 3 nice days, and if you want to stretch it to 6 days, we get 4 out of 6, with Friday partially unsettled and Sunday a wet day. That’s not too bad for late November at all. Also looks like above normal temps Mon-Tue next week, though don’t start thinking you’ll be out in your flip flops and shorts. Not THAT warm, just relatively mild.

    The pattern looks very interesting to me as soon as we flip the calendar to December. It’s not even close to being a certainty but I see set-ups that can put snowcover over a very large portion of the northern US, including New England, rather early in the month, and depending on how the upper air aligns itself, we could see some at least briefly serious cold shots for December. Again please don’t say “TK says it’s a lock”. It’s not. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we go there. For some time I’ve had this sneaky feeling that December may produce. I still do. But you know how a subtle shift in how something lines up can change everything, so I’ll be watching for that.

    I know WxW chimes in with his longer range ideas when he can. I’d love to hear JMA’s thoughts … hint hint. 🙂

    REMINDER: Snow guesses for Logan & Dave’s (not Dave & Buster’s) by November 30 please! Snow totals for the season to the nearest tenth inch!

    2. TK, in regards to the snow storm your predicting on DEC 1. Can you tell me if thunder snow will be witnessed in Eastern Mass and will snow fall rates exceed 3″ per hour?

    3. Also, not sure if you saw my post yesterday on the snow contest. No biggie either way but thought I’d offer it up if you wanted to add a more interior location to the contest. I measure every event, report to the NWS, and keep track of my totals every year regardless so no extra burden on my end.

    4. re: 11/24
      I guess so. It will be just plain and simply too damn WARM!

      Oh well, we’re not even into December yet.

      Re: Gloom
      My comment may have more reflected my Mood. I have roofing contractors
      here putting a new roof on our side porch that required removal of the deck
      on top of it and repairing some water damage. I was watching them and they
      did one heck of job today!!

      Btw, if you don’t know it by now, I can be one moody sob and sometimes
      it can be reflected in my posts, even IF I try to keep it out. :

  24. For December as long as there is snow on the ground for Christmas I will be happy. A week from Sunday when it is December 1st I will be upset when there is a rainorama.

  25. Switching topics, it took the B’s about 12 minutes into the 1st to make their first shot on the Buffalo goalie. Somehow it’s 1-1 after first. They’re lucky not to be losing 3-0.

      1. How about those Islanders! Another dramatic OT win tonight and franchise record 16 game point streak. 15-0-1 in their last 16 games. Unbelievable.

        1. I was going to say something about that to you. Impressive! As you know the Isles have been my second favorite team for many years. Nice to see them doing well. 🙂

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