9:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)
Quick update this morning. High pressure controls the weather for a few days, but its position will create a northeasterly air flow across the region, keeping it cooler than average with some ocean cloudiness impacting the region, along with patchy fog and even some drizzle for a time especially eastern MA and RI the first half of Sunday. Overall though, not a bad stretch of weather, just on the cool side for things like pools and beaches, although far inland it will be somewhat warmer, like at the Six Flags water park, where I’ll be on Monday. Haha! Beyond that, we increase the humidity and the temperature somewhat as low pressure passes well south of the region Tuesday/Wednesday and the air flow gradually turns more southerly. A weak cold front may get close enough to kick off some showers/thunderstorms Wednesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with areas of fog and a slight chance of patchy drizzle coast. More sun inland. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with areas of fog coast. Partly cloudy with patchy fog inland. Lows 55-62. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny with areas of fog coast. Mostly sunny inland. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind light E.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms afternoon-evening. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
A shower or thunderstorm possible early in the period as a weak trough and frontal system passes through, then high pressure ridging takes over with mainly rain-free weather, moderate to high humidity, and above normal temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend, although a weakening trough to the north may be close enough to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms at some point August 31 or September 1.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
Pattern should be dominated by high pressure centered southwest of the region with limited shower chances and above normal temperatures.

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)
A change in the weather pattern means goodbye to summer heat, for now. Just like when we have a mild spell in late February and some jump the gun calling the snow season over, you definitely don’t call the summer heat season over when August still has time to go and September lies ahead. We all know better. And we’re not done with summer heat. We just won’t see any during this 5 day period. Instead as high pressure builds north of the region then gradually slips southeastward, we will start with a northerly air flow today into Saturday, becoming more easterly during late weekend and early next week. Aside of a wave of low pressure causing some morning showers in southeastern portions of the region this morning, and the risk of a patch of drizzle near the eastern coastal areas during Sunday, it will be mainly dry through Monday. Going to stay with a dry forecast for Tuesday but that will depend on the speed of a front creeping back in this direction from the south as well as potential low pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast, which may or may not have some tropical characteristics to it. For now, I think neither of this are an impact for the end of this period. We’ll also be watching a broad trough in the Midwest by then but that should still be far enough west to not have any impact as well.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with lingering showers eastern and southern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Clearing midday-afternoon. Drying out. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 55-62. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with areas of fog and a slight chance of patchy drizzle coast. More sun inland. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with areas of fog coast. Partly cloudy with patchy fog inland. Lows 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny with areas of fog coast. Mostly sunny inland. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind light E.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind light SE.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
The combination of a broad trough to the west, high pressure east of New England, and low pressure south of New England increases humidity and the risk of wet weather August 28-29 before we transition into a warmer regime with continued high humidity and drier weather but still the risk of a few showers/storms at times.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
Midwest trough may flatten out and push eastward with a few showers then some drier air briefly, but the overall regime is still warm/humid with limited shower chances as it looks now. Still not the highest confidence forecast and will adjust as necessary.

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)
Humidity will remain high today, the cause of areas of fog and low clouds to start, and the trigger of a few showers and thunderstorms later, as we won’t see a cold front pass by the area until the early hours of Friday. Any of the thunderstorms that develop, especially the ones this afternoon, will have the capability of producing heavy rain, brief hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning, but please note that while this activity can arrive and depart quickly, the vast majority of the region won’t see it (coverage will be fairly low). The shower coverage area may increase tonight as a weak wave of low pressure traverses the front, during tonight, before we finally see clearing and drying Friday. The atmospheric set-up is favorable for cooler weather this weekend and Monday, but it will also resemble somewhat of a block, with high pressure stronger to the north and elongated low pressure (northeast to southwest) settling just south of New England while weakening. This allows a dry northerly air flow for Saturday, but then allows the wind to turn more easterly Sunday-Monday, which will set up a contrast between coastal and inland areas, where the coastal areas (and some distance inland as well) prone to areas of low clouds and fog at times, while inland areas that may see patchy fog at night will enjoy sunshine more abundantly each of those 2 days, though high cloudiness may be on the increase by later Monday due to the timing of the next large scale system moving from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Areas of low clouds/fog early morning. Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, but can be variable and gusty near any storms.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers with possible thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with lingering showers eastern and southern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Clearing midday-afternoon. Drying out. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 55-62. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with areas of fog coast. More sun inland. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with areas of fog coast. Partly cloudy with patchy fog inland. Lows 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny with areas of fog coast. Mostly sunny inland. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind light E.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)
Lower confidence on this period, the final 5 days of August, as we start out with low pressure tracking south of the region, probably far enough to avoid a solid rain event, but possibly close enough for unsettled weather, then a transition to a more southerly air flow with higher humidity but a frontal boundary to the west with a shower/thunderstorm risk for the balance of the period. This outlook will probably change and at least will be in need of some serious fine-tuning.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
The differences between various medium range guidance are fairly remarkable for this time of year for the early part of September, which can often lead a forecaster to great confusion. When this happens, I tend to persist with the previous forecast, and for the early part of September this is above average temperatures, fairly humid air, and a few opportunities for showers/thunderstorms between a broad trough in the Great Lakes and high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, but again not the highest confidence forecast with many tweaks to come.

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)
A warm front passes through the region this morning and midday from southwest to northeast, carrying a round of showers/thunderstorms mainly through central MA into southern NH, causing a spike in humidity, and setting the region up for other rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, beginning this afternoon and coming in a few waves of potential through Thursday evening, until a cold front has passed by. Will try to now-cast the rounds of activity in the comments when possible. Once we get to early Friday, one last wave of low pressure may wet southeastern areas before a nice dry air mass arrives for the end of the week into the weekend, but by Sunday, the orientation of high pressure may help switch the regionwide wind flow to east, so we’d have marine influences, which could include coastal low clouds and fog, and at the very least temperatures that would be significantly cooler at the beach than over the interior.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, favoring early to mid morning (central MA to southern NH) and again later in the afternoon (favoring central MA and southern NH). Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A couple episodes of showers/thunderstorms likely, favoring areas northwest of a Boston-Providence line. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in any location. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring eastern and southern MA through RI. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a period of showers possible RI and southeastern MA, otherwise clearing. Drying out. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Coastal fog possible. Highs 70-77 eastern MA and RI, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind E 5-15 MPH

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)
High pressure will bring great late summer weather August 26-27 with the area between a departing trough in the Canadian Maritimes and low pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Higher humidity and disturbances moving into the region from the west will enhance the risk of showers and thunderstorms at times August 28-30.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
The end of August and first few days of September look humid and slightly unsettled with occasional shower threats as a broad trough moves into the Great Lakes, high pressure is off the Atlantic Coast, and a frontal boundary wavers around the East Coast. Don’t expect this to be a stretch of washed out days, but we may be watching for shower activity on a nearly daily basis.

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)
A bubble of high pressure will eliminate the thunderstorm risk today, so a very nice day, but a warm front will cross the region Wednesday, causing a spike in humidity and destabilizing the atmosphere significantly. We’ll have to watch for a few storms in the morning and another round or 2 in the afternoon / evening with some potential for severe weather as well. A cold front will cross the region Thursday, and while it doesn’t look like a widespread storm day, we will still run the risk of some activity especially in eastern and southern areas. High pressure from Canada builds in with a dry and refreshing airmass for the end of the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-85 coast, 85-90 interior. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Moderately humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, favoring early to mid morning and again later in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Less humid. Patchy fog evening favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)
High pressure will dominate but will likely be centered northeast of the region, which means onshore flow and coolest weather coastal areas while inland locations are warmer August 25-26. High pressure sinks southward with an increase in warmth and humidity and eventually an increasing risk of showers/thunderstorms August 27-29.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
A boundary between offshore high pressure and Canadian high pressure will bring a shower and thunderstorm risk the last couple days of August before high pressure from Canada temporarily wins the battle to bring drier air in to start September. Temperatures will likely run above normal through this period.

6:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)
No, Boston is not about to have a heatwave. They need 3 days of 90+ for that, and they’ll get one, perhaps 2. But in true August fashion, it will be very warm to hot and humid to start this week and that humidity will indeed linger through midweek even as the heat drops off. A series of troughs and eventually a sweeping cold front will be responsible for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms that will range from isolated to as much as a solid line. When will all that happen? Hard to determine until we get into each day and see how things develop, but I can say that we have a shot at a few showers/storms around the first half of this morning, the second half of this afternoon into this evening, a limited risk Tuesday, and a much greater risk Wednesday, which may linger into Thursday. The sweeping front, mentioned above, is due to clear the region sometime Thursday night, allowing a dry airmass to arrive at the very end of the work week on Friday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms early to mid morning, again mid to late afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod & Islands, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog late evening and overnight. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 84-91 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Less humid. Patchy fog evening favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)
Expect high pressure to dominate the weather with mainly dry conditions August 24-27 with a comfortable beginning then a slow build in heat and humidity. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
A boundary between offshore high pressure and Canadian high pressure will bring a shower and thunderstorm risk the last few days of August before high pressure from Canada temporarily wins the battle to bring drier air in to start September. Temperatures will likely run above normal through this period.

11:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)
Muggy and buggy. Lots of humidity, and bugs, doing their late season thing. So last night a line of thunderstorms coming out of NY held together much longer than I expected and made it into northeastern MA and even the Boston area as it was finally falling apart. I consider this a big forecast miss, but one I’ll learn from, I assure you. Moving forward, today will be similar to yesterday in that there will be some pop up showers/storms possible, and this evening we may again be tracking a more organized line approaching from the west (will monitor), but it will also be warmer and more humid than yesterday. This is going to lead us to a short stretch of hot weather the first part of the coming week, hottest Monday, then down a slight bit for Tuesday and Wednesday, while humidity stays up, and thunderstorm chances, while lower, will still be there Monday-Tuesday, before going up Wednesday and part of Thursday as a cold front approaches and enters the region. This front looks slow to me, and it may take until the end of Thursday to clear the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible, especially north and west of Boston. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind SW 10-20 MPH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms, favoring southern and eastern areas. Humid. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)
High pressure builds in with a pleasant, dry air mass for August 23-24, followed by a warm-up and increase in humidity August 25-27 as the high slips to the south and east. The only precipitation threat I see this far out as an isolated shower/thunderstorm threat by August 27.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
Oh no September 1 appears on my blog! Winter’s coming! Kidding aside, we’ll be in a warm late summer pattern with high pressure off the Eastern Seaboard and plenty of warmth, late summer humidity, and an increasing risk for showers/thunderstorms at times as a boundary to the north and west gets a little closer. I don’t think we’ll be going into a stretch of wet weather then, just increasing the chance of activity compared to the previous 5-day period.

9:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)
The transition from a relatively cool marine layer of air to a mid summer feeling hot humid air mass will take place this weekend, with the result being more cloudiness than we’ve seen in the last couple days but still very limited rainfall, non-existent in most locations. Heat peaks on Monday, a day with no shower or storm threat as the upper atmosphere warms too much, then the heat comes down a tiny bit heading toward midweek but the storm chances increase as the upper atmosphere cools and a front approaches from the northwest.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Humid. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH except variable under 10 MPH well inland.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A late-night shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH and central MA. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind SW 10-20 MPH

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)
A cold front will pass through the region early August 22 with a morning shower/thunderstorm then a drying trend and a shot of cooler/drier air that will last through early August 24. After that, high pressure slides offshore and a late summer warm-up occurs, returning temperatures to above normal with higher humidity but dry weather August 25-26.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)
High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will keep it warm to hot and humid and keep most shower/thunderstorm activity north and west of the region the couple days of the period. The last few days of the month will continue warm/humid but with an increasing shower/storm risk as a boundary to the west and north gets closer in response to weaker high pressure offshore.

6:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)
High pressure to the northeast of the region continues to cause a broad but weak onshore flow into Saturday, keeping heat at bay but allowing humidity to increase as Atlantic moisture is drawn into the region, as evident this morning by low clouds and areas of fog and patchy drizzle. This will burn away today but the moisture may allow for a few pop up showers over interior hilly locations. This process repeats again tonight / Saturday. By Sunday, a more southerly flow will result in warmer temperatures, more humidity still, and a slightly better risk for showers and a possible thunderstorm popping up, although throughout the weekend the region will be largely rain-free. Monday-Tuesday will see a return to the feel of mid summer heat as high pressure grabs some of the heat from the southern US and propels it into New England, giving the area its first widespread 90+ temperatures since July. Thunderstorm chances will be pretty much non-existent Monday and limited due to it being rather warm aloft, keeping the atmosphere more stable.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of fog morning. Isolated afternoon pop-up showers interior hills. Highs 75-82. Wind variable, mostly E to SE, up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Wind light E to SE.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers, favoring interior hills. More humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)
The timing of a cold front approaching will determine how hot it gets on August 21 and when a chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms occurs (between later August 21 and early August 22). A shot of cooler/drier air briefly follows during August 22 and the August 23-24 weekend looks rain-free with a warm-up as high pressure dominates. By the end of the period, the heat/humidity returns as high pressure slides offshore.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)
Indications are for stronger high pressure off the Atlantic Coast for the late days of August, resulting in above normal temperatures, humid conditions, and a few opportunities for showers/thunderstorms.

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)
Quick update for today’s blog, just to say no major changes from what I said yesterday, other than just making a few minor tweaks. We will run relatively minor shower risks the next several days, and we may struggle to burn some of the clouds off on Friday and Saturday as marine moisture invades the lower atmosphere due to high pressure centered to the north and east of the region bringing more marine air in. By the end of this period, it will feel more like mid summer again.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Areas of fog early. A brief pop-up shower possible southwestern NH afternoon. A passing shower possible outer Cape Cod / Islands too.
Highs 73-80. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of fog morning. Passing light showers possible Cape Cod / Islands and a slight risk of an afternoon pop-up shower interior hills. Highs 75-82. Wind variable, mostly E to SE, up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind light E to SE.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring interior hills. More humid. Highs 78-85. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)
Jet stream remains weak and lifts to the north with temperatures sliding to the warmer side of normal, a some late summer heat/humidity, and limited shower/thunderstorm threats.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)
Very warm and humid pattern with increasing risk for shower/thunderstorms as a weak west to east flow continues but the jet stream sinks back to the south.

7:25AM

COMMENTARY
Just a quick comment on forecasting and its media maze. Limited air time, too many platforms to update, and in some cases just plain poor forecasting made many folks believe that a widespread moderate to heavy rain event was expected yesterday. It wasn’t. This blog, and other sources, tried the best they could to highlight that heaviest rainfall would be limited to certain areas, and that many areas would largely miss out. As it turned out, it was even more limited, area-wise, than I indicated in the discussion posted on yesterday’s blog, with Nantucket really being the only place that saw impactful rain over several hours, while other areas near the South Coast were wet for several hours then dried out, and the band from the north had fairly weak legs and its impact was confined mostly to parts of southern NH and far northeastern MA. I really wish that instead of sunny, nearly seasonable days being “top story” worthy for news casts, they could find a way to give more time to weather when it is NEEDED, even if it’s just to explain a situation better. If that happened, the majority of the population would stop walking around misinformed about the weather for the day. Wishful thinking? It seems so in regards to most media platforms at this point.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)
Now if I told you there are shower threats the next 5 days, you’d probably think to yourself “rainy pattern” or “wet pattern”, and that would be a fair conclusion to reach if the information given stopped there, but this is why I write this discussion. We will be, in fact, in a fairly dry pattern during these 5 days. That weak westerly flow that was mentioned for mid August back so many days ago on a previous blog will be taking place, and weak disturbances helping to interact with more local effects (sea breezes mainly) will come along to help produce those shower threats, but they will be minor, rather isolated, temporary, and the result will be that most of our area will be dry during this stretch, with weak high pressure more often in control and producing rain-free conditions than we see disturbances interacting with sea breeze boundaries and helping showers to pop up. Nevertheless, afternoons from Thursday through Sunday will be when we’ll need to watch for such pop up activity. Please do not cancel any outdoor plans if you see rain drops slathered across your app.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. A brief very light shower possible north central MA and southwestern NH this morning. Highs 73-80. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts along the coast.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind light NE to E.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A brief pop-up shower possible southwestern NH afternoon. A passing shower possible outer Cape Cod / Islands too.
Highs 73-80. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Passing light showers possible Cape Cod / Islands and a slight risk of an afternoon pop-up shower interior hills.
Highs 75-82. Wind variable, mostly SE, up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. More humid. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)
Jet stream remains weak and lifts to the north with temperatures sliding to the warmer side of normal, a some late summer heat/humidity, and limited shower/thunderstorm threats.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)
A warm to hot late summer pattern with moderate to high humidity, and a few opportunities for thunderstorms, as high pressure ridging and a northward-displaced jet stream is the pattern for New England to start out, and then the jet stream wanders back to the south as a weak trough moves into the Great Lakes / Northeast, increasing the risk for showers/thunderstorms later in the period.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)
A cold front sinks southward across the region today and sets up shop to the south by midweek. Our unsettled day will be today as an increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms results. There are likely to be 2 main bands that see them, one with the front itself dropping down from northern New England, with a broken band of activity from southern NH into northern MA this afternoon and/or early evening, and waves of activity closer to the South Coast. The main threat today will be road flooding and poor visibility in downpours, which may occur over the same areas for a while due to the set-up / movement of activity. Primary time for impact will be mid afternoon to early evening. Although severe weather (in terms of fitting severe thunderstorm criteria) is not expected, there is a slight risk of one or two strong storms. Enough southward push of high pressure should occur for mainly dry weather and below average temperatures during Wednesday and Thursday, although we will have to watch another wave of low pressure passing to the south during Thursday. High pressure will be centered north and east of New England late this week and that may set-up a boundary between onshore flow from coastal areas and light southerly air flow further away. This can sometime trigger pop up showers, and this may occur either or both days, but not enough to cancel plans over.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partial sun this morning otherwise mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms, favoring southern NH to northern MA and areas closer to the South Coast. Locally heavy rainfall possible. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering showers in southern areas. Slightly less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy southern NH and northern MA, partly sunny to mostly cloudy southern MA southward. Highs 73-80. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers, favoring far southern areas. Highs 73-80. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower southeastern areas early. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 75-82. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)
High pressure holds most of the control but a boundary may still trigger a pop up shower southern and western areas afternoon August 18. Gradual build in heat/humidity August 19-22 with occasional risks of pop up shower/thunderstorm activity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)
A warm to hot late summer pattern with moderate to high humidity, and a few opportunities for thunderstorms, as high pressure ridging and a northward-displaced jet stream is the pattern for New England late this month.

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)
High pressure drifts to the south of New England today allowing a warm-up and a slight increase in humidity, that will become more pronounced tonight into Tuesday as a cold front heads toward and eventually passes through the region. During this time the shower threat will increase and by Tuesday midday and afternoon some heavy shower activity is possible, favoring areas closer to the South Coast. This front will push a little further south and as a bubble of high pressure tries to build in from the north Wednesday we’ll be drier, but cloudiness may linger in southern areas while clearing is more confined to northern locations. Another wave of low pressure will ride along the front to the south of the region Thursday, bringing additional cloudiness and a shower threat again favoring southern locations. High pressure will begin to build in Friday but a little lingering trough and chilly air aloft will allow some pop up showers to develops.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine starts dominant then becomes limited. Becoming moderately humid. Highs 80-87. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms with some heavy rainfall possible. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering showers in southern areas. Slightly less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy southern NH and northern MA, partly sunny to mostly cloudy southern MA southward. Highs 73-80. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring southern areas. Highs 73-80. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower southeastern areas early. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)
High pressure will dominate the August 17-18 weekend with generally fair weather and low to moderate humidity, and only the slightest risk of a pop up shower near sea breeze boundaries near the eastern coastal areas August 17 and southern coastal areas August 18. A gradual build in heat/humidity is expected during the August 19-21 period with a slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)
Classic summer – warm to hot, moderate to high humidity, a few opportunities for thunderstorms, as high pressure ridging and a northward-displaced jet stream is the pattern for New England late this month.

6:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)
High pressure controls today’s weather which will be pleasant and dry for August. The high sinks to the south and allows the humidity to up-tweak on Monday while fair weather remains in place. Low pressure tracks across the region from the west Tuesday and its exact track determines whether we see general showers or at least southern areas also see the threat of some heavier thunderstorms. Just 10 or 20 miles will make a difference, so this forecast will have to be fine-tuned up to the last moment. Right now, a little cautious optimism for drier and cooler air working in behind this departing system Wednesday before a follow-up low tracks just to the south of the region Thursday, putting another fine-line forecast between sun/clouds/wet weather over the region, greater chance of drier north and wetter south from this vantage point 5 days away.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Less humid. Highs 73-80. Wind light N to NE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind light NE to E.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun north / most clouds south. Chance of showers south. Highs 75-82. Wind light E to SE.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)
High pressure builds into the region with fair weather and a warming trend August 16-17, then a couple minor jet stream disturbances from the west bring a couple opportunities for showers/thunderstorms August 18-20 in a warm and more humid overall pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)
Look for weak west to east flow, jet stream to the north, warm to hot and on the humid side with a couple shower/thunderstorm threats heading into late August.

8:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)
A trough swings through the region today and may kick off a brief afternoon shower in some locations, but that would be a very minor interruption in what will otherwise be a great August weekend. When we get to Monday, the humidity will start to increase, though the weather will be fair, then a broad trough moving in from the west will bring shower and thunderstorm chances for Tuesday into Wednesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Brief passing shower possible west to east during the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest hills. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind light NW.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)
Trough departs and high pressure builds in with fair and dry weather returning August 15. High pressure should maintain control overall with a warm-up August 16-17, then a trough from the west may bring showers/thunderstorms during the August 18-19 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)
Overall pattern will be weak west to east flow with a northward-displaced jet stream, allowing more heat/humidity back into the region. Can’t rule out a few opportunities for showers/thunderstorms, but much of this period looks rain-free.