8:35AM
DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)
If you woke up thinking today would be sunny and warm, you didn’t pay attention. Better start, never know when there will be a pop quiz! We have a slow-moving front crossing the region. It’s in no hurry, and it’s also falling apart somewhat. Numerous rain showers, some moderate to heavy, moved in overnight, and the broken band of showers is still with southeastern New England, although as expected it is making its exit, but slowly. The timing hasn’t really changed, just more toward the back side of the window, so these showers should be exiting the region during the course of mid morning from west to east while the entire areas sinks to the southeast, so the last place to be wet will be Cape Cod. There’s also a band of showers to the northwest which will be drying up, but the boundary that is causing that area will be hanging around central to northeastern MA and southern NH and may help to fire up a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm later today in those areas, so we’ll have to be on the look-out for that. The rest of the region will be rain free from late morning on. Don’t expect a sudden turn to brilliant sun though. While sunshine will make an appearance, especially in central and northern MA and southern NH where it will provide some fuel for possible later activity, it will be quite limited to the southeast. When the air flow above and at the surface is similar and a frontal boundary is pretty much parallel to the upper winds, which this one is, it doesn’t move much and cloudiness often remains dominant in the region. But it will be a milder to warmer day overall, with the usual cooler spots where a southwest wind is an onshore wind (South Coast, Cape Cod, outer Cape Ann). Another couple positives to having some wet weather about, temporary reduction in pollen count and fire danger. High pressure settles across northern New England by Sunday and this is going to result in more broad onshore wind from the east across the region, resulting in a cooler day overall. A warm front will approach from the south and then move through from south to north without much trouble during the early hours of Monday, which most of the rain will occur. This time high pressure to the north is not strong enough to hold the front back and keep the cold locked in at the surface like we see many times in spring. So getting into the warm sector means that our Patriots Day Monday will not be like the one we saw last year with a driving cold rain, but will feature mild and showery weather. Even though there may be a band of heavier showers and even some thunder, favoring the morning hours, that should move out fairly quickly and several rain-free hours are probable in any given location, at least making it easier for runners and spectators of the Boston Marathon and leaving a good chance of getting the Red Sox game in as well. There are also some early to mid morning outdoor activities commemorating Revolutionary War events, and those will likely be impacted by showers, so plan accordingly. Low pressure exiting the region via the Gulf of Maine and southeastern Canada pulls chilly air back into the region Monday night and Tuesday, but it will dry out and also be quite breezy. A warm front will approach slowly from the southwest Wednesday, which should be a dry day but may feature some cloudiness.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers likely eastern CT, RI, and eastern MA, and diminishing rain showers central MA and southern NH, while activity exits southeastern areas from west to east during mid morning (lastly Cape Cod). Mostly cloudy to partly sunny this afternoon with most sun north and west, but also a pop up shower or thunderstorm possible late-day central and northeastern MA and southern NH. Highs 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands, 60-67 southeastern MA and southern RI to southeastern CT, 67-74 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible end of day or nighttime, especially south and west of Boston. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 45-52 evening, then temperatures rise overnight to 53-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
MONDAY (PATRIOTS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms with brief downpours west to east across the region early to mid morning. Additional passing rain showers possible thereafter. Highs 53-60 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W later in the day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely evening. Lows 42-49. Wind W shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind light SE to S.
DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)
Warm front slowly crosses the region April 18 with lots of cloudiness and the possibility of a period of light rain. Warm sector weather April 19-20 with lots of clouds, a gusty breeze, and a risk of rain showers. Current timing suggest this exits for fair weather April 21 along with mild air. Upper level low pressure should bring unsettled and somewhat cooler weather to the region to end the period, but timing and exact evolution are uncertain.
DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-27)
Best wet weather risks April 24 and again at the end of the period. We’ll need to keep an eye on river levels during the next few to several weeks as the spring warming melting the immense snow pack in northern New England and occasional wet weather events add to them. There will be flooding issues, the degree of which remains to be seen.