7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
The week starts of quiet and chilly as a disturbance passes south of the region and high pressure builds to the north. But this quickly changes as a broad storm system arrives Tuesday and departs Wednesday, but what about the details between arrival and departure? You didn’t think I was going to leave those out, did you? I continue to feel confident about a dominant primary low tracking through the Great Lakes and a slowly-developing secondary low over the inland Mid Atlantic that then tracks up over southern New England. It will be cold enough for this system to start as snow throughout the region, but the set-up allows rapid warming aloft from south to north, and a slower warming at the surface from southeast to northwest. What this translates into is the snow, which should be underway by early afternoon in southern and western portions of the forecast area and northeastern areas by mid afternoon, will then transition to sleet from south to north during the early evening, then from sleet to rain from southeast to northwest during mid to late evening. Exceptions will be the higher elevations of southwestern NH which may never completely change, and also the hills of Worcester County MA which may see some icing during the rain as surface temperatures may remain below freezing there. By Wednesday morning as the secondary low is passing overhead, all areas should be above freezing with lingering drizzle, fog, and rain showers. This is when the temperatures should be at their mildest, and will hold steady then eventually fall during the day as the low moves away and an increasing westerly wind moves in, transporting drier and colder air into the region. This will set up a dry and seasonably cold Valentines Day for Thursday. But things are on the move and by Friday the next system will be approaching. There are some questions as to how this system will play out, but my feeling at this time is that it is going to be a system that heads toward the Great Lakes late Friday, allowing milder air in and resulting in a rain risk by later Friday. Will keep an eye on the evolution of this threat during the week ahead and watch for any changes.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NE under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow changing to sleet from south to north early then to rain from southeast to northwest later, but remaining as mainly snow southwestern NH and possibly some freezing rain north central MA. Snow accumulation before changeover from a coating to 2 inches South Coast up to a Plymouth MA to Providence RI line, 2-4 inches elsewhere except 4-6 inches higher elevations north central MA into interior southern NH and 6-8 inches southwestern NH. Temperatures steady 28-35 early, then rising to 30-35 north and west and 36-41 south and east. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coast.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and drizzle, then becoming partly cloudy and drying out. Highs 40-47. Wind light variable early then W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers by late-day. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
A storm system will impact the region at the beginning of the Presidents Day Weekend, currently leaning toward a milder rain scenario. This will be followed by 2 blustery, colder, dry days February 17-18. The next system would threaten around February 19 into February 20 but not sure if this gets in here or passes to the south of the region. A couple factors need to be watched to determine hit/miss and if hit snow/rain.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Trend at the moment is dry and seasonably chilly but no guarantee with how things have looked in medium range versus turned out in reality.

2:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
It’s not the first time and it won’t be the last, but so far Seattle Washington has about 3 times the amount of snow this season than Boston (Logan Airport) has. That weather system is crossing the country and will bring some wintry weather to our area during Tuesday. Before it gets here, we have a dry and seasonably cold day today under high pressure, much more tranquil than the ferocious wind gusts of yesterday. And then a weak disturbance which will be in the process of falling apart as it pushes into dry air will manage to bring some cloudiness to the region tonight and Monday but will have lost its ability to produce any snowfall, even though it will be cold enough. The system that will be carrying plenty of moisture will arrive Tuesday from southwest to northeast during the course of the day, starting with enough cold air to produce snow at the onset, but with a primary low tracking through the Great Lakes and a secondary low remaining on the weak side until after it goes by our area, we’ll see enough warming aloft to end the production of snowflakes and turn them to raindrops. How those drops reach the surface will then be determined by the amount of cold air left at the ground and its thickness. The feeling at this point is that we’ll see the snow transition to sleet during Tuesday evening then rain during the night into early Wednesday, at which time we’ll have to keep an eye on surface temperatures, especially interior areas, for icing. But even in those locations it should warm enough so that the system ends as rain showers everywhere during the day Wednesday, followed by a drying trend as the system begins to pull away. Some colder air will wrap in behind it, not in time to change the rain showers back to snow showers, but waiting until the moisture has departed. What this will do, as high pressure moves in, is bring dry and seasonably chilly weather for Thursday – Valentine’s Day. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow develops southwest to northeast during the day, changing to sleet/ice/rain south to north during the evening. Early idea of snow accumulation before changeover is under 1 inch south of I-90 and up to a few inches to the north with the greatest chance for several inches being in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 30-37 occurring late-day or evening. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with rain showers likely. Partly sunny and windy thereafter. Temperatures rise to 40s then fall to 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Next storm threat late February 15 into February 16 looks like a Great Lakes Cutter low pressure system with milder air and a rain threat. Windy, colder late February 16 into February 17 with a risk of snow showers. Breezy but cold and dry February 18. Next system looks like a weak one passing south of the region with a light snow area missing the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
The best snow threat of the winter may occur around the middle of this period, but there are several things in the atmosphere that need to line up just so, and this will be something I’ll be following closely, otherwise we’ll see a system that either tracks through the Great Lakes and brings mix/rain, or a system that passes south of the region with cold/dry air dominant. There is nothing really that odd about this particular weather pattern resulting in a lack of snow in southern New England. It’s just not something we see all that often, especially recently. We happen to sit in the geographical location for missing significant snowfall events so far this cold season, with 2 regional exceptions. We’ll see if the third will take place in this time period.

9:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Dry and cold is the theme of the weekend, and we have quite the wind event in progress, one that I underforecast somewhat. Mount Washington, NH, as of the writing of this blog, recorded a peak wind gust of 148 MPH this morning, their strongest gust in over 10 years. The wind is being caused by the difference in pressure between a departing storm in eastern Canada and a strong area of high pressure approaching from the west. Although the center of the high will pass south of New England late Sunday, it will be close enough to help winds relax, beginning tonight, leading to more tranquil conditions Sunday. We have been eyeing for several days now the period of February 11-13 for potential unsettled weather and now that it is fully within the this 5-day forecast section a little more detail will be attempted. First, an initial wave of low pressure will pass south of the region and the air will be too dry over New England for a snow area extending fairly far north of it to make it into New England without largely drying up, so Monday will probably be a filtered sunshine or patchy cloud cover kind of day, but dry and fairly chilly. A larger storm center will travel northeastward through the Great Lakes, a favored track this winter, on Tuesday before moving into eastern Canada during Wednesday. While many models have been forecasting a stronger secondary low forming closer to southern New England, I believe this feature will remain weaker until it passes the region, and the primary low will remain dominant. This would mean that precipitation would arrive Tuesday, probably as snow, with some accumulation, but we would avoid both a major snowfall as well as a significant icing situation as the circulation should allow it to warm up significantly both aloft and at the surface to change the precipitation to rain across the forecast area. Now keep in mind that all along I have been warning of model performance being very poor beyond 3 days, and I’ve taken that into account here, letting the overall known and fairly persistent pattern to be my main reasoning for leaning strongly in the direction I am going with this forecast. But as always, things can change and I will keep a close eye on the evolution of the upcoming storm threat. I do believe the progression of this system will be quick enough that we dry out before Wednesday is over, regardless of its details. And speaking of details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH. Wind chill often below 20.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH early, gradually diminishing. Wind chill near 0 at times.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow develops during the day then transitions to sleet/ice/rain at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with rain showers likely. Partly sunny and windy thereafter. Temperatures rise to 40s then fall to 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Dry, seasonably chilly to start the period. Next storm threat in the February 15-16 window looks at this time like a Great Lakes cutter, but plenty of time to adjust and refine. Dry and cold follows this but we may need to look for a low pressure wave to the south (low confidence on this chance).

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
The long-shot potential threat of a colder system to the south close enough to bring snow exists early in the period but with very low confidence in this outlook for now. Overall pattern trends a little drier and is variable in temperature.

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
A cold front will push through the region today with rain showers through the middle of the day then a drying process thereafter. It’ll be fairly mild today but cold air will be moving in rather quickly this evening and tonight, setting up a dry and cold weekend, blustery Saturday and more tranquil Sunday. A weakening system will pass south of the region Monday keeping its patchy snow area to the south as well. By Tuesday, a larger low pressure system will be approaching from the southwest and with cold air in place this one may start as snow by late in the day or at night for much of the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely through midday then becoming partly cloudy from west to east by late in the day. Highs 45-52. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts by late-day.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day or nighttime snow/mix possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
A storm passing through the region early in the period, with the set-up favoring snow to mix to rain. Dry, colder weather returns February 14 but may have to watch another system February 15-16 before dry and cold weather is back to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
A system likely gets pushed mostly south of the region early to mid period otherwise mainly dry and seasonably chilly weather expected.

7:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
A frontal boundary will remain just to the south during the day today as a little wave of low pressure along it helps hold a light northerly air flow in and colder air at the surface. This front will push northward tonight in advance of a stronger low passing west of the region, but this low’s cold front will follow quickly. All this means unsettled weather with areas of drizzle/fog today and a period of rain tonight, then a round of rain showers Friday morning and midday. After the cold front goes by a drying-out process will get underway along with wind Friday afternoon, and by Friday night cold air will be coming back in noticeably after a fairly mild day. We then will see a cold/dry weekend with blustery conditions Saturday between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, and more tranquil Sunday as high pressure moves overhead. We’ve been watching for a stretch of unsettled weather beginning about Monday, but at the moment it looks like the initial push of moisture will be suppressed to the south with just a risk of a little very light snow to start the new week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Chance of drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 35-40 north, 40-45 south. Wind light varying from E to N.
TONIGHT: Overcast. A period of rain. Areas of fog. Steady temperatures 35-45 evening may rise slightly overnight. Wind light varying from N to E evening, E to S overnight.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely through midday then becoming partly cloudy from west to east by late in the day. Highs 45-52. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts by late-day.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of very light snow early favoring southern areas. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Potential storminess later February 12 into February 13 but early indications are that this system will travel through the Great Lakes and produce mix/rain here. Will keep an eye on it. Drier, seasonably cold weather follows for February 14-15 and we may be watching another storm threat with cold air in place by February 16 but early odds favor a suppression of this system south of the region. Again anything beyond a few days is quite low confidence so will have to watch for changes in the outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Dry start and end to the period, watching for a system mid period but no feel for any detail this far out. Temperatures near normal overall.

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Note to self: Next time you are confident of your low temp range, don’t let someone else convince you to lower it. You would have been right then and chances are it may happen again. But be wrong on your own, not with someone else’s help. Yup, all us forecasters struggle with this one. This morning’s temperatures are in my original range, not the one I ended up putting down in the final product yesterday. Blah! On we go. No big changes for this update. A more “realistic” winter feeling today after 2 days of spring preview. This sets up a dicey situation for tonight as cold air at the surface will combine with an area of rain moving in from the west. This means a period of freezing rain for a good portion of southern New England, exceptions being just liquid rain near the South Coast where it’s not cold enough for icing, and potential sleet along and north of the Route 2 corridor to start as the layer of cold air may be thick enough to freeze the raindrops before they reach the ground for a while. Eventually, the slightly milder surface air should work far enough north and west to change everything to straight rain in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, lastly of course over interior valleys, but by then much of the precipitation will probably be gone anyway, other than some lingering drizzle. The frontal boundary in the area will have some difficulty pushing to the north, and the short range computer guidance almost always tries to take these fronts more quickly northward than they actually get, as the models are not that great at figuring out the cold air trapped at the surface, so I’m going to lean toward a slower movement of this front and therefore cooler temperatures right through Thursday night, but by the time the next period of rain arrives by then, surface temperatures, I suspect, should be above freezing, thwarting a second episode of icing. Will keep an eye on it for any tricks. A brief surge of milder air should get in here early Friday but a quickly-moving cold front will bring rain showers then a quick drop in temperature as it dries out Friday evening. Wind will pick up and start to dry things out but any lingering puddles and wet areas on the ground may freeze quickly, so we’ll have to watch for areas of ground ice forming during Friday night. Then the weekend will feature dry but cold weather, windy on Saturday between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, and more tranquil Sunday as high pressure moves overhead.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine dominant into afternoon then clouding over later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arrives west to east evening as sleet and freezing rain southern NH and northern MA, freezing rain much of MA and northern RI, and rain South Shore and South Coast, changes to rain most areas overnight before tapering off to drizzle from west to east pre-dawn. Patchy fog. Lows 28-35 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light N shifting to E.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Chance of drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 35-40 north, 40-45 south. Wind light varying from E to N.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Steady temperatures 35-45 evening may rise slightly overnight. Wind light varying from N to E evening, E to S overnight.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely through mid afternoon then becoming partly cloudy from west to east by late in the day. Highs 45-52. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts by late-day.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Will continue to watch the February 11-13 period for potential unsettled weather that can feature any or all types of precipitation from rain to ice to sleet to snow. Don’t read this automatically as “big winter storm”, just a period of unsettled weather in which the details are yet to be known. Dry and seasonably cold weather expected to follow this.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
A bit milder overall but changeable temperatures with a somewhat drier trend to the overall outlook.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Two quick corrections. One, I under-forecast yesterday’s temperatures. No surprise. I also was too fast in my timing of the few showers coming through early today. They are traversing the region now and will be brief and generally through by mid morning for areas that see them. The mild air remains in control today with many areas getting to or over 60. Exceptions will be areas you’d expect to be cooler on a typical spring day, as this is similar to that (South Coast, Cape Cod). Back to reality tonight as a cold front comes through dry but delivers seasonable cold back to the region for mid to late week. This is where our unsettled period begins with a wave of low pressure coming along the front with some rain/ice/sleet Wednesday night, transitioning to mainly rain before tapering off Thursday. We will have to watch for the cold air to be a little stubborn to move for a while and temperatures possibly colder than what I will have in my ranges below. Adjustments will be made if necessary. The front will push to the north Thursday evening bringing another episode of rain then putting our area briefly into the warm sector as low pressure passes northwest of the region Friday. As its cold front comes through, rain showers are likely later Friday. Cold air comes in quickly behind that but moisture should be gone soon enough to prevent snow showers. We will watch for a secondary trough that sometimes isn’t shown by short range guidance that could bring a snow shower later Friday night. Either way, look for a windy, cold, and dry Saturday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouds and a few rain showers pushing through west to east through mid morning. Sun and passing clouds thereafter. Highs ranging from 47-56 South Coast with coolest Cape Cod to 57-65 elsewhere with warmest interior valleys. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arrives west to east mid to late evening as sleet north and rain south with pockets of freezing rain from the Boston-Providence corridor north and west. Hazardous driving possible on untreated surfaces. Lows 28-35. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Early rain except pockets of sleet and freezing rain interior. Rain returns late-day. Highs 35-42. Wind light E.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Early drizzle/fog possible. PM rain showers likely. Temperatures rise to upper 40s to middle 50s during the day then fall rapidly at night.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Seasonably cold air dominates this period with a dry start and end (February 10 and 14). What happens in the middle is unsettled weather but the details of which cannot be determined for a few days. A couple low pressure systems may threaten with rain/ice/snow.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
A bit milder overall but changeable temperatures with a somewhat drier trend to the overall outlook.

6:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Ready for a couple days that feel a bit like spring? It’s just a teaser, and while the winter’s had a couple frigid blasts, it’s been relatively easy to this point compared to many. Real New Englanders know to not get complacent when it’s been like this, because you never know what can happen right through March and even into April, so there is a long way to go yet. But in the short term, we know these very nice days are upon us as a west to southwest air flow will transport milder air into the region. A trough will pass by early Tuesday with a possible rain shower, but there will be limited moisture to work with and many areas will remain dry. A cold front that comes by Tuesday evening will bring a seasonable chill and a dose of reality back to the region by the middle of the week, and then a complex set system will bring unsettled weather to the area starting Wednesday evening and lasting well into Friday. The way it looks like it will go now is that a wave of low pressure will come along the boundary that had passed by late Tuesday, bringing some scattered sleet/ice/rain Wednesday night, with a brief break, followed by a warm front that will bring a period of rain and some potential icing over interior areas Thursday, a brief visit from the warm sector early Friday before a cold front comes along with a rain shower risk followed by a late-day return to colder air. The timing on this could change, so pay attention to updates through the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible northern MA and southern NH pre-dawn. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62 except 47-54 Cape Cod and South Coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Scattered sleet, freezing rain, and rain at night. Highs 32-39. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, some freezing rain possible inland areas. Temperatures steady in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with a risk of rain/drizzle/fog early. Variably cloudy after with late-day rain showers possibly ending as snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Rapid temperature drop possible late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
The February 9-10 weekend will be cold and dry with windy conditions on February 9 and more tranquil weather on February 10 as high pressure approaches from the west then moves over the region. Unsettled weather returns during the February 11-13 period with a risk of snow/ice/rain from the passage of 1 or 2 waves of low pressure.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Overall pattern looks fairly dry with temperatures near to below normal with a split flow and wide jet stream separation with a subtropical jet well to the south and a polar jet across the US/Canada border.

8:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
There’s a little game tonight that many of you will be interested in, so what will the weather be like for any last minute errands you need to get done before it? The weather will be favorable, just a cloud/sun kind of day, not “warm” yet but certainly warmer than recently. However, you still need to watch for patchy ice on the ground where it had never melted, or had partially melted in re-froze, so keep that in mind so you’re able to watch the game from where you planned, without having to make a visit to the ER first. A frontal boundary sits in the area today, having dropped down from northern New England as a weak cold front last night and will head back north as a warm front today and tonight. This is responsible for some cloudiness but no precipitation. We’ll be in the warm sector Monday and Tuesday, even though a trough passes by in the early hours of Tuesday from the west when there is a rain shower risk, this doesn’t really have any cold air behind it. We’ll have to wait for a cold front to come through in the evening, allowing us to enjoy an early preview of spring. And keep in mind it’s just an early preview. It’ll still be early February and just 3 days beyond the climate mid point of the cold season. We will come back to reality when it is seasonably cold by midweek. We’ll also be watching the approach of a storm system from the west by the end of the period. The current feeling is that the main storm will be heading for the Great Lakes and we’ll be dealing with liquid falling from the sky. The problem may be that there will be cold air trapped at the surface, and this is a recipe for icing for at least some areas. Still a few days to refine the details.
Forecast specifics…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain showers before dawn. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with passing rain showers early, then partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Temperatures fall to the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/ice possible by late-day. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
The pattern described yesterday with cold air in Canada and a milder ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast will be in place. This will result in some air mass battling, and we’ll likely start and end this period unsettled with storms that favor rain/ice over snow. In between, dry and seasonably cold weather is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
The same basic pattern should remain in place with unsettled weather again to start and possibly end this period and an interlude of dry and chilly weather in between. Obviously low confidence on timing this far in advance.

8:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Well, we got our annual prognostication from Punxutawney Phil this morning. I’m not sure if he favors the GFS or the Euro, but what he did say (in “Groundhogese”) was that he saw no shadow and therefore predicts an early spring. Our regional groundhog, Miss G., from Lincoln MA, will be making her prediction at 10AM, but so as not to be any further influenced by large rodents, the blog update shall be out before we find out what Miss G. has to say. What I have to say is this. We are in the midst of a moderation. It may not feel quite like it yet, as last night was still pretty cold, with some areas falling to near or even below zero. But today, you’ll notice lots of high cloudiness and that’s a sign of warming aloft, which usually means warming at the surface in most cases. This will be one of them. Today’s surface temperature recovery only brings us back to the vicinity of the freezing point, but it’s relatively warm compared to where we sat just 2 days ago. However today will also contain a fair amount of moving air, i.e., it will be breezy, so that will still keep it feeling chilly. Sunday will see less wind, brighter sun, and will moderate further, opening the door to a couple days that will make you think Phil is really onto something early next week, when many areas see temperature easily breaking 50. However, we all know that a couple mild days in early February, no matter how winter has been up to this point, is not a sign to declare an end to winter. Trust me, we’re not done with cold. And that reminder will come quickly. After one cold front passes early Tuesday with rain showers, we’ll get a treat with the milder air hanging around as it will be a second cold front that will deliver colder air for Wednesday, though nothing close to the magnitude of what we just saw.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with passing rain showers early, then partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Temperatures fall to the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
The large scale pattern will feature a flat ridge of high pressure in the southeastern US. With plenty of cold still residing in Canada, this sets up a contrast zone across the US Northeast and Mid Atlantic, which often become vulnerable to air mass battles. This doesn’t automatically mean big storms, big snow, or anything very specific. It does mean we tend to see a stretch of unsettled weather in the region, and this will likely be the case, first in the Northeast February 7-8 with odds favoring a low pressure track through the Great Lakes, mild air aloft, some low level cold, and a combination of rain/ice in the region – the details of which won’t be known for a few days. During the February 9-11 period the “zone of conflict” is more likely to shift into the Mid Atlantic leaving our area drier and seasonably chilly.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
It’s obviously been hard to confidently predict weather in this section of the blog for some time now, and this will be no different. However, the same basic weather pattern should be in place and the early feeling is that we get back into unsettled weather early in the period before shifting back to dry and colder mid to late period.

6:55AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
We’ve gotten through the cold outbreak, which was a brief glancing blow by the edge of a piece of the Polar Vortex, which hit the Midwest much harder with extreme cold. While today will still be cold, it will be easier to take than yesterday with several degrees added to yesterday’s readings and somewhat less wind. A milder westerly air flow comes in Saturday but there will be some cloudiness to go along with it. High pressure will be in general control but a surface boundary will also be around late in the weekend pushing more to the north early in the week. A cold front comes through at some point during Tuesday, but it looks like this system may be moisture started, and we’ll have a better chance of rain showers from a trough that comes before it earlier in the day. It’s obviously several days away so the details may change.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures rise from the 30s to the 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers AM. Partly sunny PM. Breezy. Temperatures rise from the 40s to the 50s morning then fall back to the 40s afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Slightly colder air arrives February 6 with dry weather. Next storm threat is February 7-8. Odds favor rain but some ice/snow is possible if the storm track is far enough south. Dry, colder weather expected during the weekend of February 9-10.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Pattern should support a Great Lakes storm track about mid period with rain favored over freezing or frozen precipitation. This should be book-ended by dry weather to start and end to this period.

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
We made it through the squalls, now to the arctic air, which blew in hard and harsh with the squalls last evening. Today won’t be quite as brutal as January 21, but almost as much adding the wind into the equation. But as previously discussed this doesn’t last long and even though we only recover to the 20s tomorrow, that will be part of a moderating trend that will last right through the 5-day period as high pressure sinks to the south of New England and a couple waves of low pressure move along a boundary to the north of the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 10-17. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0 at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below -10 at times.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle to upper 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Small disturbance brings a threat of early rain showers February 5 then drier and quite mild with high temps above 50 possible many areas. Next storm travels through the Great Lakes & St. Lawrence Valley February 6 bringing a risk of rain here but not looking too heavy. Drier, slightly colder after that but may need to watch for another low pressure wave with a variety of precipitation on February 8.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Uncertainty here but leaning toward a chilly/dry start to the period, milder and unsettled mid period, colder and drier finish.

3:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
The front and low pressure area that produced snow and rain overnight is on its way out now and today we await the arrival and passage of an arctic cold front, still expected to deliver snow showers and snow squalls to the region from west to east mid afternoon to early evening. These can drop visibility very quickly to near zero and also deposit a small accumulation of snow in short order, making for hazardous travel, so if you plan to be on the road later today, be aware of this possibility. This front will lead a shot of bitterly cold air into the region, along with wind, making the feel of this air mass rival that of January 21, even though the actual air temperatures will probably not be quite as cold as they were then. But I’m splitting hairs here – it will be very cold. Thankfully, we’re not actually getting into the full core of this cold air mass, as the heart of the air mass will peal northeastward and stay just north of our area as it heads back up into eastern Canada. So after this somewhat eventful end to the fairly uneventful month of January, what do the first few days of February have in store? The answer: Not much. It will be a quiet period of weather with temperature moderation taking place as high pressure moves overhead on Friday and then sinks to the south of the region during the course of the weekend. Although I cannot say with confidence the sky will be 100% clear on the morning of groundhog day, odds favor any small or large rodents that wander around outside will have a decent shot at seeing their shadows on Saturday morning, unless they rise before dawn! So there’s my groundhog day prediction! I will not venture to predict the score of the super bowl at this time – after all, it’s 5 days away and too early for numbers. 😉
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with snow/mix southeastern NH and northeastern MA and rain MA South Shore to Cape Cod diminishing. Sun/cloud mix mid morning on. Snow showers/squalls arriving from the west in central MA and southwestern NH by later in the afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with snow showers/squalls likely. Briefly very low visibility in falling and blowing snow with accumulations of a coating to 1 1/2 inch possible. Clear overnight. Lows 3-10. Wind W 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill falling well below 0 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 8-15. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Monday February 4 will be a milder day overall with a warm front producing scattered rain/ice then a cold front later with rain showers. Fair, breezy, but on the mild side Tuesday February 5. Current expecting timing brings a risk of rain/mix February 6 and 8 although neither look like big storms as the overall pattern will be fairly zonal with split jet streams.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Fairly zonal pattern with disturbances producing possible unsettled weather about February 10 and again toward the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Light onshore flow produces some light ocean effect snow showers in eastern MA and southeastern NH through midday today with no significant impact. Low pressure tracking north of the region tonight into Wednesday will drag a front across the region, and its precipitation will arrive as mainly snow then change to mainly rain (except far north and west where it stays snow or briefly mixes) then may end as snow on the back side briefly Wednesday morning as a wave of low pressure forms on the front and cuts across the region from southwest to northeast. An arctic cold front charges across the region west to east during Wednesday afternoon and early evening, producing snow showers and squalls that may briefly bring visibility to very low levels and may coat the ground quickly with snow, creating hazardous travel. Once these are by, the door is open to bitterly cold air which will be here but for a brief visit late Wednesday night through early Friday, rivaling the magnitude of the cold of January 21, but probably falling just shy, but with wind, you won’t notice much of a difference anyway. Even though Friday’s still cold, it will be one of those days when the 20s feel like the 40s in comparison to the day before. Expect dry weather and further temperature moderation for Groundhog Day with high pressure in control.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Cloudy. Light snow showers with dustings and minor coatings eastern MA and southeastern NH through midday. Snow arriving in central MA, southwestern NH, and eastern CT to western RI by dusk. Highs 30-37. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH this morning, E to SE up to 15 MPH this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow to possible mix northwest, snow to rain most other areas, and may just start as rain South Shore of MA and South Coast of MA/RI, then a brief switch back to snow in most areas pre-dawn before ending. Snow accumulation patchy coatings far southeastern areas, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches central MA and interior southern NH. Temperatures rise slightly to 32-36 north and west, 37-41 south and east through late evening then fall back to 25-32 around dawn. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, mainly NE to N interior areas and SE to S in coastal areas, shifting to N-NW all areas up to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts toward dawn.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a lingering snow shower eastern areas early then a sun/cloud mix. Snow showers/squalls likely west to east mid to late afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a few snow squalls around early then clear. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill well below 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 0s to lower 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Moderating temperatures with dry weather February 3 and a risk of rain showers later February 4. Dry and slightly cooler February 5. Unsettled weather possible with a risk of rain/mix/snow February 6-7 as we’ll be near a boundary between cold air north and mild air south.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Unsettled weather departs early period and may return at the end of the period with variable temperatures. Not a great feel for how this period plays out at this time.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
High pressure brings seasonably cold weather to the region today. If you’re up early enough you may see a deck of clouds hiding the rising sun. These clouds are with an ocean storm that is missing the region. A couple hundred miles further west with that system and we’d be digging out from quite the snowstorm later today. But, not the case. The next winter weather event arrives later Tuesday as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes and a new low forms on its trailing front in the Middle Atlantic. This low will likely track right across southeastern New England Tuesday night, and this track will produce a snow-to-rain-to-snow scenario for many areas, but it may stay as snow/mix in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH throughout the event, where even though it won’t be a prolific producer, snow amounts there will be the highest. Before the arrival of this system, some eastern coastal areas of MA may see some ocean effect snow showers due to an onshore flow developing during the day Tuesday. As for the precipitation produced by the low, all areas end as snow at least briefly around dawn Wednesday as colder air rushes back in behind the departing low, and perhaps just enough to create some slippery travel for the morning commute in areas that didn’t really see any accumulation previously – something to watch for that morning. An arctic cold front will cross the region later Wednesday, bringing one of the better snow shower and snow squall chances we’ve had in a while. But squalls or not, the door will be open for a bitter blast of air, not quite to the degree of the one of January 21, but with more wind, making it feel just as cold if not a little colder when you factor that in. This will be for Thursday, the final day of the month. Triple-F Day, otherwise known as “Friday February First”, will open the new month on a cold note, but not as cold as the day before, as the core of the cold will have moved up in to the Canadian Maritimes by then. Earlier I had been thinking that we could see a sneaky snow event on that day, but at this time my feeling is that will be suppressed well to the south and pass through the Mid Atlantic region as a relatively minor system as high pressure builds in across New England.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: High cloudiness hides the early morning sun then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 15-22. Wind N
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers eastern MA coastal areas. Highs 30-37. Wind light NE to E.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow to possible mix northwest, snow to rain most other areas, and may just start as rain South Shore of MA and South Coast of MA/RI, then a brief switch back to snow in most areas pre-dawn before ending. Snow accumulation patchy coatings far southeastern areas, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches central MA and interior southern NH. Temperatures rise slightly to 32-36 north and west, 37-41 south and east through late evening then fall back to 25-32 around dawn. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, mainly NE to N interior areas and SE to S in coastal areas, shifting to N-NW all areas up to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts toward dawn.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a lingering snow shower eastern areas early then a sun/cloud mix. Late-day snow showers/squalls possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 10s. Wind chill well below 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
February 2-3 weekend looks dry, starting chilly ending milder as high pressure first over the region then sinks to the south and east. February 4 looks mild with possible rain showers. Windy, cooler, drier weather arrives February 5 as a cold front moves through and offshore. Will watch for a minor low pressure system with a threat of snow/mix by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
Seasonably chilly early period, milder following this with the next storm threat likely to be a Great Lakes system with mix/rain threat here, then a chilly end to the period. Confidence on timing low.