7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)
A disturbance exits the region this morning. A clipper system crosses the region Tuesday, too far north for all of the region to see snow but not far enough for all of the area to escape it, redeveloping over Maine then exiting via Canada. As it intensifies it will drag down the coldest air of the season for the middle of this week ahead of the next clipper system that brings a chance of snow Friday. Details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with passing snow showers possible early, then mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Precipitation arriving pre-dawn as snow or mix northwest of a Boston-Providence line, mix or rain to the southeast. Lows 28-35. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy morning with snow central MA into southern NH, rain southeastern MA and RI, snow to rain in between. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches outside of I-495 and north of I-90 but 3-6 inches higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH, and less than an inch to the southeast. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a few rain showers possible. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Temperatures fall to the 20s early then remain there.
THURSDAY: Sunshine then late clouds. Lows from the upper 0s to middle 10s. Highs in the 20s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)
The pattern will feature near to below normal temperatures in a general northwesterly flow with a series of clipper systems passing through. Current timing brings them through about December 17 and 20.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)
The pattern is expected to continue generally the same. There is a slight chance of brief temperature moderation at some point during this period but not enough evidence for me to be confident of it.

11:50AM

STORM SUMMARY
Just a quick look back on our first widespread snowfall of the 2017-2018 season. This was the first of what I believe will be several snow events from now until mid January during a pattern that is overall colder than normal, and a pattern in which we may get greater than half of our snow for the season. Right or wrong about the long range, this first system delivered nicely for most of the region, except for the expected areas discussed in yesterday’s forecast. My error was similar to many I have made in having difficulty forecasting the intensity of banding and therefore my top number of 6 should have been 7 or 8. But overall the storm did not throw any real surprises at us, and occurring on a weekend eliminated the issue of a “work day” commuting nightmare, at least for the vast majority of people. Here at the WHW headquarters, my final total was 6.6 inches.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)
We get a break today with the clouds having departed and sunshine dominant for the several short hours it is up at this time of the year. Tonight and early Monday, a disturbance will cross the region and may produce a few snow showers, and then along comes a fairly potent clipper system for Tuesday, the track of which will be extremely critical in determining where and how long an initial period of snow is. At the moment, anyone along and northwest of a Boston-to-Providence line can expect to see this start as snow as best I can tell. A rain/snow line will likely advance rapidly northwestward but just as that happens the precipitation may cut off, especially if the storm center is moving just north of the region (across northern New England) before it redevelops in the Gulf of Maine. So during the next day I will be trying to pinpoint this, as even a quick inch or two of snow can cause travel issues, and this is certainly possible somewhere early Tuesday. Regardless of how the details of that clipper system play out, what is much more certain is the arctic air mass that will arrive for the middle of the week. Along with wind, especially Wednesday, it’s going to have a bite to it. We’ll already be watching the approach of the next clipper system by late Thursday with clouds advancing into the region. On to the forecast details…
THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers mainly after 10PM. Lows 24-31. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing snow showers possible early, then mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Precipitation arriving pre-dawn as snow or mix northwest of a Boston-Providence line, mix or rain to the southeast. Lows 28-35. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy morning with snow and a minor accumulation likely from eastern CT through central MA and southern NH except the coast, snow/mix/rain with minor snow accumulation possible NH coast down the I-495 and I-95 belts, and rain likely to the southeast. Variably cloudy afternoon with a few rain showers possible. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Temperatures fall to the 20s early then remain there.
THURSDAY: Sunshine then late clouds. Lows from the upper 0s to middle 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)
The pattern will feature near to below normal temperatures in a general northwesterly flow with a series of clipper systems passing through. Current timing brings them through December 15 and December 17/18. The first one has a shot at producing widespread snow. Too early for details on the follow-up.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)
The pattern is expected to continue generally the same. There is a slight chance of brief temperature moderation at some point during this period but not enough evidence for me to be confident of it.

9:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)
Here comes the first widespread snow event to include most of the region, and it will be the result of a wave of low pressure moving along a cold front offshore. This wave of low pressure is wave #2 of 2 that we’d been eyeing, with #1 having gone by overnight with a few raindrops reaching Nantucket during the night. But that rain is important. It tells us that it is warm enough for rain somewhere, and without a ton of cold air draining in it also tells us that it will remain warm enough for rain somewhere, so this does not become a measurable snow event for all. But we’ll get back to that in a moment. Just to go back briefly and touch upon why this and many forecasts leading to an event are not so clear cut. We’ve been eyeing a batch of energy diving out of Canada and into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The timing of this was key to whether or not one of these offshore waves would evolve more and come close enough to deliver precipitation to everyone. One theory for the difficulty in timing this a few days ago outside of normal model uncertainty is the fact that there is less data coming out of Alaska available for models, i.e., fewer upper air soundings. How much of a roll this may have played is not really known, but it will be interesting to see if similar situations occur going forward. Also, as a little fun fact, it seems that December 9 and 17 have become favorable dates for snow over the years. Looking back in history, and I won’t list a bunch of dates here at this point, there have been quite a few events of one type of another on these 2 dates. Today will be no exception. Once upon a time I thought today’s event would occur but would be placed far enough northwest for a lot of the region to have rain. This turned out to be a medium range forecasting error. So today we will once again attempt to foretell the future with minimal errors! Basically the forecast from my perspective is not really changed since yesterday so there is not much to say other than recapping we’ll have precipitation expanding across the region today, first with just spotty areas of very light snow except rain Cape Cod during this morning, becoming more steady from south to north later in the morning through midday and peaking during the afternoon and evening before ending west to east tonight. The rain/snow line will start out around Cape Cod and progress west northwest to at least to a Plymouth / New Bedford line. It will also bend up to include parts of Cape Ann where a northerly wind comes off a warmer ocean surface. It will likely expand to include most of the South Shore and possibly mix right up to near Boston. As everything winds down this rain/snow line will head back to the east. For road impact, look for moderate impact due to snow especially this afternoon into tonight where it is all snow, and less impact with mainly wet roads from the South Shore through Cape Cod. Overnight and early Sunday look for some icy areas on untreated surfaces. Looking ahead, a disturbance may produce a few snow showers Sunday and a lingering trough will keep some cloudiness around and maybe even a few additional flurries on Monday. The early call on the next system is a clipper that tracks over southern New England and redevelops to the east but too far north to give a significant snow event to the WHW forecast area. Still more details to iron out on this. Time for forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Spotty light snow except rain Cape Cod this morning. Steadier precipitation advancing northward late morning and midday mainly as snow except rain Cape Cod and a change from snow to rain into the South Shore towns of MA as well as Cape Ann MA. Highs 30-40, coldest in north central MA and southwestern NH and mildest South Shore to Cape Cod MA. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Overcast evening with snow except rain South Shore to Cape Cod, then breaking clouds with snow tapering off west to east and rain changing to snow before ending South Shore to Cape Cod. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH. Snow accumulation for this event: Under 1 inch Cape Cod, 1-3 inches Cape Ann and MA South Shore, 3-6 inches elsewhere.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. AM snow to mix/rain. PM rain showers. Evening snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)
Fair and very cold December 14. Next clipper brings a risk of snow or snow showers December 15. Fair but not as cold over the weekend of December 16-17 and then another clipper may follow that with a rain/snow risk. Timing obviously uncertain this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Overall temperatures below normal with a couple opportunities for precipitation, favoring snow or snow showers, from passing clippers.

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 8-12)
A wave of low pressure will move up along a front offshore and will come close enough for the region’s first widespread snowfall of the season on Saturday and Saturday night. An upper level disturbance will bring additional snow showers during Sunday. The next storm threat is Tuesday but the track of this one remains uncertain. Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light SW.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 28-35. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow/rain developing in the afternoon, turning to snow most areas but remaining as mix/rain Cape Ann, immediate South Shore through Cape Cod. Highs 33-40. Wind light N.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow likely except mix/rain immediate coast especially outer Cape Ann and Cape Cod. Snow accumulations under 1 inch outer Cape Ann and Cape Cod, 1-3 inches South Shore and Logan Airport, 3-6 inches elsewhere. Lows 25-33. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 13-17)
Much colder early in the period, temperatures still below normal but not quite as cold later in the period. Best opportunity for additional snow is around December 15 probably from a clipper type system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 18-22)
Still looking for the dominant trough, colder than normal temperatures, and a couple clipper systems.

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)
I’ll keep it short and sweet today. We have high pressure in control today for a nice December day. A front sits offshore and will be the “train tracks” for a wave of low pressure that may bring a period of precipitation to southeastern areas Friday night. A second wave of low pressure is expected to pass by Saturday night. Then, an upper level energy will cross the region Sunday bringing a chance of snow showers. Weak elongated upper low pressure may hang in the region Monday with some clouds lingering. On to a detailed forecast…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 42-48. Wind light SW.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-29. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-46. Wind light N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain/mix/snow favoring RI and southeastern MA with some minor snow accumulation possible. Lows 30-36. Wind light N to NE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix/rain favoring eastern MA and RI early morning and again late-day and at night with additional minor accumulation of snow possible. Highs 36-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle to upper 20s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)
Potential storm of snow/mix/rain December 12 followed by a blast of very cold air during the middle of next week. A weaker system may bring light snow around December 15-16 and a very slight moderation but still cold.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)
Trough resides in the northeastern US and a series of clipper type systems will deliver at least opportunities for precipitation and otherwise continue to reinforce cold air.

8:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Cold front pulls offshore today and a seasonable chill enters the region during the next 24 hours then hangs out through this weekend. Continuing to watch the “threats” for late Friday and late Saturday but both look stretched out and more offshore than over this area. Precipitation shield from the Friday night system has a better chance as it looks now of expanding westward enough to perhaps reach the Boston area, but either way, not expecting significant snow. An upper disturbance lagging it all on Sunday may bring some snow showers.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Early showers exit. Clouds followed by clearing. Temperatures fall slowly through the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the day.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-26, coldest interior valleys. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain/mix/snow late-day and night, favoring southeastern MA and RI. Highs 37-43. Wind light N to NE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a period of rain/mix/snow favoring southeastern areas late. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to near 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Dry/chilly December 11. Still watching next storm threat for December 12-13 with mix/snow risk – too early for details. Drier or a few snow showers and much colder thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)
A cold pattern with a couple clipper type low pressure areas bringing snow or snow shower risks.

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)
No big changes. Pattern transition, stage 1, as talked about a few days ago, takes place during the next couple of days as we have a mild Tuesday, a cold front bringing some wet weather tonight into Wednesday, cooling temperatures during Wednesday, and a colder/dry Thursday. A couple waves of low pressure following the frontal passage, one on the front itself, a second from another disturbance, will pass southeast of the region but can both be close enough to produce a period of precipitation. Timing for these looks like late Friday and late Saturday as it stands now and precipitation type can be rain, mix, or snow, depending on timing and locations. Neither look significant in terms of snow accumulation at this point but will keep an eye on it, just in case.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing risk of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Temperature rising to 53-60. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with periods of rain. Breaking clouds later in the day. Temperatures falling to the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow, mainly afternoon and night. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow, mainly afternoon and night. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Look for dry and colder weather December 10-11 and a rain/mix/snow threat December 12-13 depending on timing and track of the next system, and dry/cold weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)
A more consistent cold pattern, with a trough of low pressure dominated by the polar jet stream and 1 or 2 clipper type systems possible during this period. Will have to watch for additional moisture available for either system from the Pacific or Gulf of Mexico, depending on the set up, but the odds of this are low based on the northern stream dominated pattern.

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)
The hype train continues as expected, with even local TV mets referencing snow amounts for threats that are 5 to 7 days away. You won’t be hearing snow amounts from me in this summary since the energy for the threat that is 5 days away is currently sitting in 2 places – half way between the Hawaiian Islands the the Baja Peninsula of Mexico for the southern energy, and in the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska for the northern piece of energy, and the energy for a potential second threat lies in places more distant. We don’t have the ability yet to model this with consistent accuracy. Maybe someday… What we do know is a pattern transition that is going to turn New England colder will be underway in the coming several days, marked initially but a surge of mild air and a rain event ahead of a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday, and yes this will be mainly rain everywhere for the majority of its duration. The cold air will come in quickly enough for a flip to snow and some accumulation mainly in the mountains of VT, NH, and Maine while it just ends as rain everywhere else. This type of a set-up does not allow the cold air to arrive quickly enough at all levels to flip rain to snow at lower elevations and southeastern New England. What else we know is that Thursday will be a much colder but dry day across New England with the exception of some possible mountain snow showers. Then it gets more interesting. We are not going to see the core of cold blast right in here. Yes it gets colder for Friday and the weekend, but the border of this cold will not be that far to our east and that border is also where the jet stream will be. This setup will allow at least one wave of low pressure, and possibly 2, to make a run at the region between Friday and Sunday. What remains to be seen is how the resultant low pressure areas will track and interact with the newly-arrived cold and the recently-departed mild air and available moisture to impact this area. Several possibilities are on the table at this point and the only thing we can do over the next couple days is monitor and fine-tune. Friday’s threat should be more clear cut by Tuesday or Wednesday. Any threat beyond that will come into focus during the middle of the week. But for the moment, let’s just focus on the next 5 days in this detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-50. Wind light variable to E.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-39. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing risk of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Temperature rising to 53-60. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with periods of rain. Breaking clouds later in the day. Temperatures falling to the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow, rain favored coast, mix/snow favored interior if it occurs. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)
As mentioned above a threat of unsettled weather as one wave of low pressure departs and another approaches and moves through during the December 9-10 weekend. It remains to be seen what the exact impact will be, but again rain is favored coast, mix/snow interior early December 9 and again later December 9 into December 10. Dry weather follows briefly an then another threat of rain/mix/snow arrives for December 12 and/or 13. Plenty to iron out in the days ahead. Temperatures near to below normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)
A more consistent cold pattern, with a trough of low pressure dominated by the polar jet stream and 1 or 2 clipper type systems possible during this period. Snow chances go up, but threat of larger storm goes down, based on current indications.

8:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)
High pressure controls through Monday but some cloudiness will continue to be around today before the air is dry enough at all levels for more sun, which will occur Monday. During Tuesday the high will slip to the east and a warmer southwesterly air flow will arrive, continuing through Wednesday. But an approaching cold front from the west will bring some wet weather to the region Wednesday. Right now it appears this front should get out of here fairly quickly with the cold air not in quickly enough for anything more than a brief mix or flip to snow for some interior locations at the end of the event. This would set up a colder and drier day Thursday.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-38. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-50. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, may end as brief snow/mix at night. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s, colder at night.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)
A wave of low pressure brings a risk of mix/rain and possibly some interior snow December 8 with a secondary wave bringing another precipitation threat, favoring rain coast and mix interior as it looks this far out, for December 9. Generally dry weather follows this but may turn unsettled again very end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-5 (DECEMBER 13-17)
A large scale low pressure trough will dominate as blocking in the northern hemisphere puts high pressure over Greenland and forces a piece of the Polar Vortex southward into eastern North America. A colder pattern during this period with 1 or 2 opportunities for precipitation, possibly snow for parts of the region.

7:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)
An area of high pressure will sit over the region for the next 3 days and very gradually strengthen. However as this is going on a batch of moisture aloft will result in a fair amount of cloud cover at times during the weekend. By Tuesday the high will slip to the east and a warmer southwesterly air flow will arrive, continuing through Wednesday. But an approaching cold front from the west will bring some wet weather to the region Wednesday.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 42-48. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-36. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-38. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-50. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)
Rain ends, possibly as brief mixed precipitation, early Thursday December 7. A risk of rain (may start as mix) late December 8 into December 9 and may end as snow showers. Generally dry thereafter. Temperatures near to below normal as we get into a dominant upper level trough.

DAYS 11-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)
A large scale low pressure trough will dominate as blocking in the northern hemisphere puts high pressure over Greenland and forces a piece of the Polar Vortex southward into eastern North America. A colder pattern during this period with 1 or 2 opportunities for precipitation, possibly snow for parts of the region.

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)
As December begins, no real changes are being made to the previous forecast, other than to speed up the weekend disturbance and remove precipitation from the forecast.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 46-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-27. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 42-48. Wind light N to NE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-36. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Decreasing clouds. Highs 40-46. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Wet weather December 6 marks the end of a warm-up and it turns colder behind this for December 7-8 before a slight moderation on the weekend of December 9-10. A couple more unsettled periods of weather, favoring rain or mix, during the remainder of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Blocking will strengthen and we see a stronger push of colder weather during this period, along with increased risk of 1 or 2 events that will include snow. Too early for details.

9:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
A quiet last day of November as high pressure dominates. A cold front will cross the region early Friday with limited rain shower activity. Fair weather will then dominate for the balance of Friday as well as most of the weekend, though some cloudiness on Sunday will be caused by a weak disturbance crossing the region on its way to ignite an offshore storm that will stay east of the region as high pressure returns through Monday with more fair weather.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Isolated rain showers by 10PM. A band of rain showers crossing the region overnight. Lows 35-41 early then rising back into the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with rain showers lingering southeastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA through mid morning. Clearing late morning. mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 46-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-27. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-48. Wind light N to NE.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a slight risk of very light rain/snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)
We reach pattern transition period number 1 here. I believe the pattern, on its way to colder, will go through it in a couple stages as blocking begins to develop in the northern hemisphere, rearranging the large scale pattern. Though it is difficult for timing of systems which can make for a forecast that can blow up in your face easily, here is my best shot. Milder December 5-6 with an episode of rain showers somewhere later December 5 to early December 6. Turning colder later December 6 into December 8 with mainly dry weather, then a warm up and a chance of precipitation, likely rain, somewhere between the later December 8 and December 9 period. The late-period unsettled weather is far from etched in stone and could end up further south and timed even later.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Blocking will strengthen and transition period #2 will take place here with a couple periods of unsettled weather and a switch to below normal temperatures. This will, of course, lead to an increased risk for snow threats. Snow is not a guarantee on any given day, but the overall pattern will start to support it more during and beyond this period, looking ahead a little bit. Much more to come.

9:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
No. It didn’t rain overnight. The moisture you saw on the ground condensed there out of the air. This is the same process as when you see the outside of a glass drip with water when there is a cold drink in it. That chills the surface of the glass and then moisture in the relatively warm room air condenses onto the cold glass. The ground acted as the cold glass, condensing the moisture of the warming air mass. Now to the coming weather… A cold front pushes through the region today but the air behind it is not all that cold, so we still get a mild day today, albeit with a gusty breeze. It will chill down tonight and be a cooler day on Thursday as a narrow area of high pressure dominates. Then the progressive nature of the pattern pushes another front through the region parented by low pressure passing north of the region early Friday. This front will have more moisture to work with it than the one currently moving through, and will produce rain showers. The weekend looks cool and mainly dry. A weak disturbance will come through early Sunday with some cloudiness and no more than a touch of light rain and/or snow, but this energy will be feeding an offshore storm that will not impact the region other than some increased surf along the coastline early in the coming week.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy morning. More sun afternoon. Highs 52-58. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-27. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Sunshine much of the day, limited late as clouds advance. Highs 40-46. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain showers possible after midnight. Lows 34-40 early then rising back into the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with rain showers in the morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 46-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a slight risk of very light rain/snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Back to milder at the start of this period and then mid period some unsettled weather marks the first hint at a coming pattern change. It will not happen all at once but this unsettled weather should be followed by a push of colder air to end this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)
A blocking pattern in the atmosphere will change the weather pattern during this period. Here we should see a brief warm-up early period, then another round of unsettled weather with colder air returning in a stronger push by the very end of the period. A little difficult to time things and detail them so far out, so we will continue to refine.

9:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
Two moisture-starved fronts will cross the region during the next couple days, a warm front today, and a cold front Wednesday. The cold front may try to send a few rain showers into the region but it looks as if most of them will either dry up or pass north of the region. So despite these fronts traversing the area, we will see largely fair weather, and this will continue for the final day of November on Thursday as high pressure dominates. A low pressure area will track eastward, passing north of the region on Friday. A round of rain showers will occur with this system, but its progressive nature means that after a wet Friday morning it will likely dry out rather quickly. Fair and cooler weather should then return and dominate through Saturday. This will be favorable weather for all high school football championship games, a few of which are Friday night and the majority of which will be on Saturday.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-39. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain shower possible in the morning. Highs 53-59. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Sunshine, late clouds. Rain showers arriving during the night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with early rain showers, then sun/cloud mix. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Expecting mainly dry weather during this period with a chilly start then a moderation to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)
The pattern will start to become more amplified as we head toward mid December. However, this does not mean an immediate dive into colder and higher snow chances for New England. We may be temporarily trapped on the warmer side of the pattern for this particular period of time, with fair weather for a few days and then unsettled weather as the trough to the west begins an eastward advancement. Will closely monitor the evolution of this expected pattern change.

8:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
A secondary cold front is pushing through the region first thing this morning hence the cloudiness and a few isolated snow flurries. Drying should allow for the sun to become dominant as the day goes on but along with a gusty wind and chilly air. But this chilly shot of air will be short-lived, and our progressive pattern will bring milder weather right back in Tuesday and especially Wednesday as we get a “quiet” warm frontal passage Tuesday, basically the return of the boundary that comes through today. Another cold front will cross the region Wednesday, devoid of precipitation but carrying an area of cloudiness with it, but this will be the mildest day of this week. Thursday’s cool-down will pack less punch than that of today. When we get to the end of this work week and the first day of December on Friday, we’ll likely see a wet day, with temperatures mild enough for rain instead of any mix/snow, as low pressure arrives from the west.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Lots of clouds limiting sun through mid morning, a few spotty snow flurries, then decreasing clouds and increasing sun late morning on. Highs 43-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-39. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 53-59. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arriving during the night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
On yesterday’s forecast I had hinted of a possible cut-off low pressure area arriving Friday and hanging around into if not through the weekend. Current indications are that this system will be more progressive as it comes through here, slowing down once it is further to the east, with any wet weather departing by early Saturday December 2 and breezy, cool but not cold, and dry weather for the balance of the first weekend of December. The early part of next week should feature fair weather and milder than average temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
The pattern will start to become more amplified as we head toward mid December. However, this does not mean an immediate dive into colder and higher snow chances for New England. We may be temporarily trapped on the warmer side of the pattern for this particular period of time, with fair weather for a few days and then unsettled weather as the trough to the west begins an eastward advancement. Will closely monitor the evolution of this expected pattern change.