Sunday Forecast

55 Comments

8:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)
High pressure controls through Monday but some cloudiness will continue to be around today before the air is dry enough at all levels for more sun, which will occur Monday. During Tuesday the high will slip to the east and a warmer southwesterly air flow will arrive, continuing through Wednesday. But an approaching cold front from the west will bring some wet weather to the region Wednesday. Right now it appears this front should get out of here fairly quickly with the cold air not in quickly enough for anything more than a brief mix or flip to snow for some interior locations at the end of the event. This would set up a colder and drier day Thursday.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-38. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-50. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, may end as brief snow/mix at night. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s, colder at night.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)
A wave of low pressure brings a risk of mix/rain and possibly some interior snow December 8 with a secondary wave bringing another precipitation threat, favoring rain coast and mix interior as it looks this far out, for December 9. Generally dry weather follows this but may turn unsettled again very end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-5 (DECEMBER 13-17)
A large scale low pressure trough will dominate as blocking in the northern hemisphere puts high pressure over Greenland and forces a piece of the Polar Vortex southward into eastern North America. A colder pattern during this period with 1 or 2 opportunities for precipitation, possibly snow for parts of the region.

55 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Crap loads of variability among models.

    GFS looks interesting for Friday into Saturday:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

    Snow map (10:1)

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120306/gfs_asnow_neus_25.png

    And also looks interesting for Saturday into Sunday:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

    However the Granddaddy of them all is the Euro for Next Sunday:

    https://imgur.com/a/GN9jl

      1. What are the chances that Euro thingy happens?

        5%, 10%, 25%, 50%?

        Ah, probably ZERO, but is sure looks pretty on this Sunday morning. 😀 😀 😀

  3. Waiting on this morning runs.

    Dying to see how much the GFS and EURO change.

    Sunday’s Euro event will probably morph into a Rain event or go Poof.

  4. With saks ” general statement that professional opinions are not really valued much anymore. The public is in love with model-driven hypecasting by non-meteorologists. What a shame.” I think this is a clear sign of how uneducated the USA has become. A certain group who is passing awful stuff. Is the same group who rather people not go to college. People are easily won over by short catchy phrases with no plan. Translation, people see a forecast and do not look at who is doing it. If the population got smart people would not look at these and the hypecasting non mets would go way. Will it happen probably not. If people have a problem with this go look at how the USA is doing in terms of education with the rest of the world. We are in the middle of the pack in terms of higher education. With what was passed the other night, it makes it extremely hard to go to grad school in the USA. I know a few people already saying they have to drop out because they can no longer afford it in the spring. The USA is making it harder and harder to go to higher education because a dumb population= easier to control. Makes going international cheaper. 😉

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Don’t forget to check the newly updated angel model 🙂

    And happy Sunday to you and your mom. It is a glorious morning. I’m beginning to think I enjoy sitting outside as much or maybe more in the cooler weather as warm. There is a peace to the world this morning.

  7. Given the latest Euro it’s no wonder Barry is all excited for next Sunday. Even Ch.5 has snow as well. The only caveat that the model shows is not a lot of snow for the immediate coastlines. Some of us are going to need a northerly northeast wind to share in the snow. Due N or at least NNE.

    What are the water temps these days? 65…70? 😉

    1. The other caveat is that this is 7 days away.

      Water temps: 40s, few lower 50s in the warm spots.

  8. FYI: On Tropical Tidbits model page there is a new version of the snowfall accumulation map for the 3km NAM ONLY! This is the “Ferrier” snowfall, using a correction by Brad Ferrier to limit the bogus accumulation due to sleet, most useful in warmer regimes. As always, use with caution. Early indications are this is a generally favorable correction. More verification needed.

  9. Well, the 12Z GFS still looks quite interesting for Friday/Saturday with 2 systems.
    Not powerful, but wet enough for interest.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

    As depicted, most snow more inland. But who knows what it will be like when
    we get there.

    Here is the 10:1 snow map for both systems:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017120312/gfs_asnow_neus_30.png

  10. re: Ocean temps

    Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    Boston Approach Lighted Buoy BF NOAA 44013

    49.3

    Station 44029 – Buoy A01 – Massachusetts Bay (Stellwegen Bank)

    48.4

    Station 44098 – Jeffrey’s Ledge, NH (160)

    50.0

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    Station 44005 (LLNR 820) – GULF OF MAINE – 78 NM East of Portsmouth, NH

    48.4

  11. TK – As for my comment above regarding water temps, I’m sure you understand the 65-70 as a joking remark. I certainly know that they are not at those levels now. Still, the actual temp (49) will still be an issue unless the winds are more off the land. 🙂

    1. Yes. I knew you didn’t think they were that warm. Holy smokes a lot of people would be at the beach. 😛

      And yes those water temperatures well into the 40s must be taken into account regarding the threats of precipitation late next week. We may not get a solid delivery of cold air (yes it will turn colder but may not quite cold enough) before those waves impact the region to ensure snow in all areas. In fact I’m pretty confident of this scenario even this far in advance. If I end up wrong, I’ll figure out why.

  14. Pats just desperately miss Marcus Cannon. That’s the whole difference. Brady’s running scared in the pocket without him.

    Happy about the defensive performance though especially with Trey Flowers out. Close game.

  15. The 12Z Euro is in and it looks like it wants to save the Big Kahuna
    Until a week from Wednesday, 10 days out.

    Smaller action prior to that.

    https://imgur.com/a/R0H5L

    This would be a Big event, but as depicted, RAIN along the coast.

    But, it being 10 days out… he he he We shall see.

    The 0Z snow event for Saturday is now not so much, perhaps 1-3 inches at most, if that. 😀 😀 😀

  16. Looking at the low pressure location for a week from Wednesday 12/13 on the 12z EURO interior locations could get a good amount of snow.

  17. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The greatest tidal ranges occuring bi-monthly are called …

    A. ebb tides
    B. flood tides
    C. neap tides
    D. spring tides

    Answer later today.

    2. Great “wording” on the NWS point forecast (a product I’m not a fan of).

      “Sunday: Chance of snow. Mostly sunny.”

    1. It’s interesting how noticed that is when I actually defend my profession. Taking a lot of shit in a lot of places today for doing that. I’m not talking about you. Just in general.

      1. Ok….here is how Vicki works. First, this is your blog. People need to respect that. Second, like family, I get to give you shit 🙂 just as you get to give me shit; but let anyone else give you that same shit, I’m a very unhappy camper.

        1. yep thats just like family 😀 Especially when it comes to people messing with brothers. We do stuff with each other but if other people do it, there is gonna be hell to pay lol

  20. Matt (and all)…. If you haven’t heard, for better or for worse, full resolution ECMWF data, and more, is now freely available for viewing and dissemination via Dr. Ryan Maue and his team at weather.us. Subscription services are no longer required to view this data. I for one will not be renewing my WeatherBell account at the end of this year. Certainly don’t need to pay $240/yr for the musings of Joe Bastardi, which is about all the “value” that site provides now. You can find the data at the link below, you’ll have to play around with it a little to find all the right products, but the “USA Surface” tabs are generally where you’ll want to go. Dr. Maue is still in the process of building the page, but new features are being added frequently. This is the real deal, and I hope they can keep it free or at least cheaper than previous services for years to come.

    http://wx.graphics/

    1. Awesome. Thanks.

      I have not yet seen all the charts I would like, But as the site indicates,
      more charts coming soon. I have book marked that site.

    3. I have been using this site for a month as of tomorrow. It’s fabulous and will only get better!

  21. Looking at the end of next week… watching the GFS trend slower with the southern stream disturbance and faster with the northern one… if those two phase up in time, look out. 18z run comes close to doing it. Definitely need to get this major midweek Lakes Cutter through to improve confidence. There will be more chances the next couple weeks, but the end of this week will be the first real one. With this coming synoptic upper air pattern, it will be shocking (to me at least) if Boston doesn’t get its first inch and probably more by around 12/15, one way or another.

  22. Gronk lossed his cool, but I see why this guy was holding him all day with none of those calls being called and the few times he tried to get away he was called. It was unfair for gronk but doing that was not ok.

  24. 2 Boston TV mets referenced snow amounts for potential events 5 to 7 days away on their 11PM newscasts. Horrendous. It just gets worse and worse.

    2. the one I saw was on wbz and she was reading something off screen and tried make it not a big deal. Feels like she was forced to say it.

  25. Good morning and all I can say is wow!!!

    Model fliporama. Not that anything was etched in stone, but as I look this morning, the scene looks oh so different. Will we see flakes? likely. Will there be much of any accumulation? Not so likely as of now.

    Onto the 12Z runs for the latest episode.

  28. New post! Largely used a write-up I made last night and posted elsewhere, though it was originally written for this blog anyway. 🙂

    Good day all!

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