8:20PM

COMMENTARY…
Not too often a day in the upper 30s to lower 40s following snow and rain would be considered a “really nice day” but many probably thought that of Sunday, the first day that Boston was above freezing most of the day in a very long while. The day allowed for being outside without being bundled in layers. The shoveling of snow was more of the clean up and catch up variety versus just trying to stay ahead of a storm during near-blizzard conditions. Granted, there are many people with ice dam problems but at least today afforded the opportunity for some people to work on clearing those, or at least lessening their impact. We have quite a way to go still to finish recovering from the 4-week barrage that we’ve been enduring, but Sunday, though maybe not a “day of rest”, was a nice break.

SUMMARY…
The mild air’s brief visit will end in the early hours of Monday as an Arctic cold front sweeps through the region from west to east. Though the front may be accompanied by a few isolated snow showers, the main impact will be tumbling temperatures during Monday and Monday night. The deep freeze will last through Tuesday as well. A clipper low pressure system will dive southeastward out of Canada, across the Great Lakes, and then move eastward through New England by early Wednesday. Developing low pressure offshore should stay just too far east to impact the region, other than perhaps clipping Cape Cod with some snow/mix. Elsewhere, just a few snow showers are expected early Wednesday. This will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold for the last 3 days of February, though the magnitude of the cold will not be as great as what will be experienced early this week. A look ahead to the first day of March next Sunday shows clouds rolling in and moderating temperatures ahead of the next weather system. The pattern remains active but will be a little less volatile.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 20-25 morning then falling through 10s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0 at times during the afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -10 inland valleys, -10 to -5 other inland areas, -5 to 0 coastal locations and urban centers except 0-5 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, but not as strong in valley locations. Wind chill often well below 0.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy AM with a chance of snow showers all areas and possibly a period of steady snow/mix Cape Cod. Partly cloudy PM. Low 20. High 35.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 25.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 30.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

8:24AM

SUMMARY…
The latest event will be winding down this morning, and this one let most of us off quite easy with snowfall amounts coming in from below the predicted range to the lower end of the predicted range for most areas. The area not let off so easily is southeastern MA because of milder air being stronger there and resulting in moderate amounts of rain falling upon a heavy snow pack. This increases stress on roofs and increases the chance of future flooding. Moving forward, a short synopsis of what goes on during the final 7 days of February. Weekend system slowly exits today with lingering rain to mix southeastern MA and a little light snow to the northwest with only minor additional accumulation during this morning, then breaking clouds this afternoon. It will feel quite mild with high temperatures above freezing in many areas. But that is only a brief reprieve as an Arctic cold front will race west to east across southern New England Monday morning and return the region to the deep freeze through Tuesday. A low pressure system moving through courtesy the northern jet stream will bring snow showers Wednesday. A southern jet stream storm system will get going offshore but the two will not interact until they are well beyond this area, sparing the region another significant snowstorm. Cold air is reinforced for later in the week, but probably not as cold as the shot that starts the week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy with spotty snow northeastern to central MA, rain to mix elsewhere, ending by midday. Breaking clouds and partial sun this afternoon. Highs in the 30s, some lower 40s southeastern MA/RI. Wind W up to 10 MPH, few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight risk of a passing snow shower. Lows around 20. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW by dawn.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures steady around 20 through midday then falling through the 10s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling toward 0.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers. Low 10. High 30.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 10. High 30.

7:37PM

SUMMARY…
This update focuses on the weekend event, which is pretty much looking the same to me as it has all along. After a very cold overnight, clouds roll in by early Saturday and snow approaches and overspreads the region by mid to late afternoon and continues into the evening. All the while it will be trying to warm up from the south, but the wedge of cold air will hold strong near the ground while it warms a little more easily aloft. This means that the snow will transition to sleet and rain across the South Coast of RI and into southeastern MA, with freezing rain actually more likely in all but immediate coastal areas. Where it stays all snow, a moderate accumulation is expected. Lesser accumulation is expected in the mix/change area, with least toward the South Coast where the snow will last less time and the chance of plain rain is highest. The mix/change will be mainly a Saturday night and Sunday morning occurrence before the entire system exits from west to east later Sunday, opening the door for another blast of Arctic air with dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. Also continuing to monitor the possibility of a storm nearby on Wednesday, and this is still possible, though current indications point more to a northern stream system passing through with snow showers and not really phasing up with southern stream energy off the coast. Jury is still out on what may take place here. By late in the week, it’s dry and cold again.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -10 to +10 from south central NH to Cape Cod, colder in some valleys. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow developing west to east afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow of 3-6 inches northwest of a line from northern Plymouth County MA to Providence RI, and 1-3 inches elsewhere except less than 1 inch Cape Cod and Islands, changing to sleet and freezing rain South Coast eventually into more of RI and southeastern MA, northwestward into the Boston area by dawn. Temperatures steady in the 20s but rising to the lower 30s South Coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow/sleet well northwest of Boston, snow to sleet and freezing rain Boston to Providence, plain rain immediate South Coast. Precipitation ending west to east early afternoon with breaking clouds. Highs from near 30 northwest of Boston to 40-45 immediate South Coast. Wind SE under 10 MPH except SW to W 5-15 MPH near the South Coast, then shifting to NW all areas and increasing to 15-25 MPH during the afternoon.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

10:25PM

SUMMARY…
Frigid Friday, check.
Saturday snow, check.
Sunday mix, check.
Early week cold, check.
Watching midweek storm, check.
Basically no changes to the previous blog discussion.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -5 to +10, coldest northwest interior MA and southern NH, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill -5 to -20.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 10-15 interior MA and southern NH, 15-20 elsewhere. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. wind chill near to below 0.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -5 to +10 from south central NH to Cape Cod. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow developing west to east afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow of light to moderate accumulation, changing to sleet and freezing rain South Coast. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow/sleet well northwest of Boston, snow to sleet and freezing rain Boston to Providence, sleet and rain South Coast. Precipitation ending west to east early afternoon with breaking clouds. Highs from near 30 northwest of Boston to 40-45 immediate South Coast. Wind NE under 10 MPH except SW to W 5-15 MPH near the South Coast, then shifting to NW all areas and increasing to 15-25 MPH during the afternoon.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 30.

9:02PM

SUMMARY…
Norluns, low pressure centers, upper troughs. It’s all about low pressure areas through Thursday, basically as described in the previous blog with the inverted trough lifting from northeastern MA through eastern NH into southern Maine as broad upper low pressure crosses the region through Thursday and ignites another surface low just east of New England by early Thursday which then move northward. After the snow showers occur as expected, we’ll get a blast of Arctic air with wind Thursday night and Friday. We’re still watching the next storm system for the weekend, the track of which is in question, and as a result so is the amount of milder air that gets involved. Been leaning toward the colder solution for this event Saturday night and Sunday because of the weakness of the expected low and the tremendous cold snowpack in place. We may see warm enough air come in aloft to result in sleet and freezing rain, and even plain rain in some areas by Sunday as it does turn somewhat milder, but this will be a tricky forecast right up until the event occurs. Dry and cold weather is expected to return Monday and last through Tuesday. An offshore storm will threaten the region with some snow next Wednesday but it is, of course, too far away to figure any details with that threat.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, most numerous in Essex County MA northward. Accumulation of 1 to 3 inches Essex County MA into NH, less than 1 inch most other areas. Lows in the 10s. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers in the morning. Additional accumulation of up to 1 inch. Partly sunny with isolated snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 25-30 by midday, falling back through the 20s in the afternoon. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 0. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill well below 0.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill near to below 0.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 5. High 25.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet/ice/rain. Low 20. High 30 north to 40 far south.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.

10:30PM

COMMENTARY…
For many of you, the only good thing about this month of February 2015 is that it only has 28 days and will end. Although you cannot deny the fascinating aspect of this incredibly cold and snowy month, one that nobody quite saw coming to this extent. Back in January when I tossed out dates for a target period for the majority of our snow for this Winter (January 24-March 8), I never envisioned what was getting set to unfold. I forecast a “milder” February from what we had seen in January, not something that is all that unusual even with the expected snowy pattern. But instead the temperature went even lower, and Boston has a shot at having only the second month on record coming in with an average temperature below 20F. The other was February 1934, the month in which Boston recorded its all time record low temperature of -18 in February 9. Though that record will not fall, many others have and a couple more are within reach, including the record coldest month and the all time snowiest Winter (and even if we don’t reach that in February, there is still March). Boston moved into a tie for #2 on the snowiest Winters list with the 0.6 inch snowfall Tuesday, bringing the total to the same as the 1993-1994 Winter at 96.3 inches and is within 1 foot from the #1 spot of 107.6 inches from the 1995-1996 Winter. This record is now very much within reach and may indeed fall before the end of the 7-day forecast period covered in this blog…

SUMMARY…
The active and cold weather pattern goes on, and the atmosphere continues to find every way possible to snow on Boston with more on the way. Tuesday’s snow was a double deal, though not amounting to too much in the city and up to a few inches along the coast mainly to the south of the city, and came from a passing storm well to the south and an onshore flow which brought moisture off the ocean. Wednesday, another storm system forming on an offshore boundary, though being too far offshore to bring more precipitation directly, will be the parent of an inverted trough, or a Norlun trough, which will grow northwestward from the passing storm on Wednesday and inject an area of snow into eastern MA during late afternoon and evening. This trough will then migrate northward through northeastern MA and southeastern NH and eventually into southern Maine and will the focus for enhanced snowfall and some potential significant accumulation by early Thursday. Though it looks like Boston itself will escape the heaviest, the North Shore northward may not. And in addition to this, another low pressure area will develop just east of Cape Cod by early Thursday and then track northward through the Gulf of Maine by Thursday night. This system will be intensifying and its back-side snow showers will likely deliver some more scattered accumulation to southern NH and parts of MA. Oh and it won’t be done with us even when it’s done snowing on us, as it delivers another batch of Arctic air for Thursday night and Friday. Have you had enough yet? Well yes or no, we’ll be in for another storm threat which will be arriving over the weekend, most likely Sunday. The big question with this one is whether or not it will track in such a fashion to allow relatively milder air in from the south to introduce a mix or rain, or whether it will will track far enough south to keep colder air entrenched for a snowier outcome. At the moment I’m leaning toward the colder outcome, but at 4 days away there is plenty of time to fine tune this. Either way, a return to dry weather but more cold is likely early next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers with spotty light additional accumulation. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 Cape Cod. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers but an area of more numerous and locally moderate snow showers developing in Metro Boston to the North Shore late afternoon. Scattered coatings of snow but accumulations of 1-2 inches possible in the evening from Boston northward especially closer to the coast. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with additional accumulation of few inches in northeastern MA and southeastern NH. A few light snow showers possible elsewhere with little additional accumulation. Lows 10-15. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 20-25. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 0. High 15.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 0. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely except possible mix South Coast. Low 15. High 30.
MONDAY: Clearing. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

3:45PM

SUMMARY…
The cold pattern even by mid Winter standards continues with no sign of letting go soon. Though the train of big storms seems to have subsided, it will continue to be an active weather pattern, with a fast-moving low pressure area passing south of New England Tuesday, delivering a light to moderate snowfall, an upper low and inverted trough bringing snow showers on Wednesday, and then another system over the weekend bringing the next chance of snow. In between, Thursday and Friday will be dry with very cold air from the Arctic.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low -5 to 0 interior valleys, 0-5 elsewhere except 5-10 urban centers/coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing to under 10 MPH and shifting to N.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches except 2-4 inches Cape Cod and portions of the immediate coast. Highs 20-25. Wind light N becoming NE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Coastal snow showers possible. Lows 15-20. Wind light NE shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Occasional snow showers. Highs 20-25. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Sunny. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 10-20.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 10-20. Highs 20-30.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 25.

5:37PM

SUMMARY…
A quick look at the weekend storm. Snow totals were higher than expected by me in portions of the region for both part 1 and part 2 of the storm. Both times these higher areas were portions of eastern MA and southeastern NH, also parts of RI as well for for part 1. Boston’s snow total of 16.2 inches for the latest storm brings their seasonal total to 95.7 inches so far moving it into 3nd place on the all time snowiest winters list. #2 is the 1992-1993 Winter with 96.3 inches but that is in close reach, and they are within 10 inches of the #1 snowiest Winter, 1995-1996 with 107.6 inches. With additional snow threats in the forecast, Boston has a very real chance of reaching #1 with the 2014-2015 Winter, after having only 5.5 inches through January 23! Incredible. Now onto the week upcoming. It’ll be an Arctic Monday, Presidents Day, with bright sun, gusty winds with blowing snow, and frigid air. Low pressure tracks out of the Southeast States and off the Atlantic Coast Tuesday bringing a shield of snow to the region. Light to moderate snow amounts are likely, with greater totals further southeast and less to the northwest. Additional snow showers are likely Wednesday as upper level low pressure slowly traverses the region. Another blast of Arctic air arrives Thursday and Friday before broad trough moves in and brings another snow threat for next weekend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Blowing snow under a clear sky. Lows from -10 remote suburbs to +5 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill -10 to -25.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Blowing snow. Highs 10-15. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often 0 to -10.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows -5 to +5. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill -10 at times.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with snow likely by late morning on. Light to moderate snow accumulation possible. Highs around 20. Wind variable to NE 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 20.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 10.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low -5. High 15.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 10-15. Highs 20-25.

9:29AM

SUMMARY…
And more synoptic surprises in a Winter that is stacking up as many of those as inches of snow. Go figure. We’ll save the analysis for later and just say that snow amounts for not only part 1, which overachieved for some areas but not all, but for part 2 have overachieved but in even more locations, especially eastern MA (as usual) where an intense comma-head snow band took shape about 30 to 50 miles further southwest than I expected. The NWS was concerned about this and I give them props for putting it out there as a wild card to the snow amounts. Even they had to add to the totals, but not as much as I do. So going forward, the rest of this would be a repeat of the last entry regarding the weather set up for the rest of today and well into the coming week, so we’ll just go to a forecast update and save the next full discussion for The Week Ahead post later today. Plus there are so many comments on the previous entry it’s time to hit “refresh”.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Snow gradually ends through midday, but blowing snow continues. Sun appears from Boston westward later in the day. Total accumulation 6-12 inches well inland, 12-18 inches to the east with heavier pockets of about 18 inches. Very high snow drifts. Temperatures fall from 10s below 10. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH with gusts over 45 MPH at times inland, 25-35 MPH with gusts over 55 MPH at times coast. Wind chill well below 0.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Blowing snow. Lows -10 to 0 inland, 0 to +5 coast. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with gusts over 45 MPH shifting to W late.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Blowing snow. Highs 10-15. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Clouding up. PM snow. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 15.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 5. High 25.

5:23PM

SUMMARY…
This update will be basically the same discussion as the previous with a few tweaks as not much has changed in what was expected. Small snowflake size and a fairly lasting lull in snow for most areas will result in less accumulation than would have been seen if the storm had normal flake size and no lull.

Winter storm warning for the entire WHW forecast area until 1PM Sunday.
Blizzard warning for southeastern NH and eastern MA counties 7PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.

Clipper system arrived as scheduled this afternoon, getting part 1 of the event underway. Redevelopment is going to take place offshore with rapid intensification. This will lead to the wind part of the system during part 2, along with additional snow and the added aspect of blowing snow due to strong wind for Sunday morning, with blowing snow continuing through Sunday night and even into Monday long after the falling snow is gone.

The next storm threat late Tuesday to early Wednesday will result from a fast-moving low pressure system likely to pass offshore of New England. Leaning toward a light to moderate snow event from this but plenty of time to work out details. More dry and cold weather is expected later next week but quickly moving systems mean that the next threat of snow arrives by Saturday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Overcast with widespread snow evening, then a break with only isolated snow showers much of RI and MA as some snow continues across southeastern NH, then snow redevelops all areas toward dawn. Temperatures fall from the 20s to the 10s. Wind light SE to E early then shifting to NE to N and increasing to 15-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast by morning.
SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, heaviest in northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Blizzard conditions in the warning area. Snow ending west to east afternoon with thinning clouds and some sun emerging. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches, but areas of greater than 8 inches possible mainly near the coast north of Boston including eastern Essex County MA into southeastern NH. Temperatures falling from the 10s to under 10. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH with gust 45-55 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH with gusts 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Wind chill frequently below 0.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows -10 to +5, coldest well northwest of Boston, least cold near the coast. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts. Blowing snow. Wind chill -10 to -25 at times.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Highs around 10. Wind NW 15-30 MPH and gusty. Additional blowing snow. Wind chill below 0, down to -15 at times.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Morning snow. Afternoon clearing. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 30.

1:05AM

SUMMARY…
Doing some fine-tuning regarding the weekend storm.
Winter storm warning for the entire WHW forecast area 3PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.
Blizzard warning for southeastern NH and eastern MA counties 7PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.
The evolution of the weekend storm is still expected to be the same as previously discussed as a clipper low pressure system tracks east southeastward from the Great Lakes to near southern New England Saturday with a first area of snow developing. The system will then redevelop just southeast of New England Saturday night into Sunday before moving away. After a lull in snow over parts of the region especially eastern MA and RI Saturday night into the early hours of Sunday while snow likely continues in southeastern NH, back-lash snow, increasing wind, and falling temperatures will become the story of the second part of the storm Sunday morning across the region. Conditions improve later Sunday but bitter cold and gusty wind will continue, along with blowing snow, and this will continue into Monday. The next storm threat late Tuesday to early Wednesday will result from a fast-moving low pressure system likely to pass offshore of New England. Leaning toward a light to moderate snow event from this but plenty of time to work out details. More dry and cold weather is expected later next week.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows from -15 deep valleys to +10 coast. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow developing west to east afternoon with accumulating up to 3 inches. Highs in the 20s. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow tapering off in RI and MA but continuing in southeastern NH evening, then redeveloping all areas overnight. Additional accumulation greater than 3 inches southeastern NH, under 3 inches elsewhere. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind variable becoming NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, heaviest in northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Blizzard conditions in the warning area. Snow ending west to east afternoon with thinning clouds and some sun emerging. Additional accumulation 2 to 4 inches south and west of Boston, 4 to 8 inches from Boston north. Total storm accumulation 5 to 10 inches south and west of Boston and 10 to 15 inches from Boston north. Significant snow drifts. Temperatures falling through the 10s. Wind NE to N then eventually NW, 15-35 MPH with gust 45-55 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH with gusts 55-65 MPH coastal areas.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Morning snow. Afternoon clearing. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.

8:15PM

COMMENTARY…
Yes, the title of the blog entry is … which should be easily figured out. 🙂
Too bad The Weather Channel didn’t start naming this series of storms after the Beatles. We could have had John, Paul, and George by now, and Ringo coming up, and next week, maybe even Pete Best. 🙂 My other comment here is a little more serious and just kind of a public plea really. We all know that it’s been one heck of a stretch of Winter weather, and that 3 weeks probably now seems like 3 months, and even the snow lovers among us are tired from shoveling and navigating, etc. Some of us accept this fact of Winter, even in this extreme case, while others curse it and all that goes along with that. I’m not here to judge that in this post, even though I often make my opinions quite known. 🙂 What I really want to address here is anger. If there is one thing I have learned about people, in general, is that we are lot more quick to react out of frustration and anger now than we were back in 1978, for example. Yes people got frustrated then, but it seemed so much so that the first choice would be to help somebody, be friendly to somebody, and do whatever they could to help others get through the weather-related hardship. We worked much better as a team then, and now it seems to be everybody for themselves. I know this does not apply to everybody, and there are many of us that would do just as many did in 1978. As tough a stretch as this is, and will continue to be for a while, try to exercise patience, help where and when you can, and smile at somebody. It’s contagious, and that’s something good to catch. Spread it!

SUMMARY…
The current small storm system has delivered its coating to 2 inches of snow to much of the region today, and as it redevelops offshore it may deposit another couple inches across Cape Cod. But this progressive system will be moving rapidly away as it develops and intensifies, dragging much colder air from eastern Canada into New England overnight through Friday. This will include wind. Then quickly the attention turns to the next in a seemingly endless series of storms, this one a northern jet stream clipper system that came out of the Arctic circle a couple days ago and has been diving southeastward across Canada, will undercut the Great Lakes and make a turn eastward just south of New England then northward just east of New England, explosively intensifying as it gets over the water. The exact position, rate of strengthening, and track will determine the impact here, but it seems likely that a pretty decent snowfall is again coming, along with very cold temperatures and very strong wind. Blizzard conditions become possible in this set-up, and for that reason a blizzard watch is in effect for Saturday night and Sunday along the coast from the Cape Cod Canal northward. We will talk more about exactly what that means is it appears that it will become a reality and a warning is issued. Suffice it to say, here we go again. An early call on snow amounts for the storm, 8-16 inches with pockets of heavier east of Worcester County except 4-8 inches along the South Coast which may see a little less in the way of moisture wrapping around the storm as it intensifies. 4-8 inches are also expected from Worcester County to RI. These amounts are subject to change and will be fine-tuned as the development of the system is more clearly known. It should not be forgotten that this storm will also have a significant wind component which may lead to power outages, hopefully limited due to the dry nature of the snow, and also presents the risk of coastal flooding at high tide times. More to come on these issues. By later Sunday as it moves away, the snow will have ended, lastly on the coast, and very strong winds will create blowing and drifting, which will last into Monday as winds stay up, along with bitterly cold air, likely the coldest of the season. But we get no break, for even though the coldest is gone by Tuesday, another storm threat is quick to follow, and we may be looking at a snow/ice/rain situation, depending on storm track, later Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be followed by more cold air with dry weather returns by Thursday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: An additional inch or two of snow on Cape Cod otherwise clearing northwest to southeast. Lows 0-5 northwest of Boston, 5-10 to the southeast except 10-15 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill dropping below 0.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 8-13 northwest of Boston, 13-18 Boston to Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH common. Wind chill around 0 freqently.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows -10 to -5 interior, -5 to 0 elsewhere except 0-5 Boston and coastline. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow by mid or late afternoon. Highs 20-25. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, especially eastern MA and southern NH. Blowing and drifting snow. Significant accumulation likely. Possible blizzard conditions near eastern coastal areas. Lows 10-15. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Overcast with snow gradually diminishing from west to east, lastly on the coast and Cape Cod. Additional significant accumulation in the morning, less so in the afternoon, heaviest amounts eastern areas (see above for numbers). Blowing drifting snow. Blizzard conditions possible especially eastern coastal areas. Highs 15-20. Wind NE to N 25-35 MPH with gusts to over 40 MPH inland and over 50 MPH coast.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny and windy. Blowing snow. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Clouding over. Late-day and nighttime snow with possible mix. Low 5. High 30.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with mix/snow AM. Clearing PM. Low 30. High 35.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.

6:58PM

SUMMARY…
Not a whole lot of new news to report on this entry. We had a little ocean-effect snow today on the far northwest flank of a large ocean storm. Now that heads off to the North Atlantic waters and the low pressure area we have been expecting comes in from the Great Lakes later Thursday and redevelops offshore Thursday night, acting just about the way we expected, maybe even a bit further out and faster. So the adjustment on this forecast will be tweak snow amounts down and remove the snow threat from the early Friday forecast. Friday itself will be a bright but very windy and cold day. We continue to monitor a storm that will have at least some impact on southern New England over the weekend. Today’s trends are to push the storm a little closer with greater snow/wind impact, but there is enough uncertainty to prompt me to leave the forecast as is for now and continue to monitor. As this pattern goes on, we do expected a blast of extremely cold air for Presidents Day Monday, followed by that previously-mentioned storm threat later Tuesday into Wednesday. That storm may have milder air involved with it and have a more complex precipitation pattern, but it’s quite far out there still and we’ll follow this over the coming days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Coastal clouds and flurries linger across southeastern MA. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows in the 10s. Wind light NE to E early then shifting to N later.
THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Snow developing from west to east during the afternoon. Highs 25-30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow, ending before dawn from west to east. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches, with 2-4 inches over Cape Cod and Nantucket. Lows around 10. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below 0.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 15. Wind NW 15-35 MPH. Wind chill near to below 0.
SATURDAY: Sunshine gives way to clouds. Snow late day and night along with increasing wind. Low 0. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow and wind, especially eastern areas, then a clearing trend favoring western areas later day. Low 5. High 15.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny and windy. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day snow. Low -5. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/ice/rain. Low 20. High 35.

9:54PM

SUMMARY…
The active and incredible Winter pattern, not even 20 days old, continues for a while, but may afford a couple of easier events during the next several days, in terms of snow. We will not be immune to some pretty serious cold air that will arrive not long from now. While many areas continue to dig out and clean up, which will take a very long time in some sections, we’ll continue to have storm threats as the pattern goes on. First, a minor ocean-effect snow event is expected along portions of the eastern Massachusetts coast on Wednesday due to a north northeast wind off the water. This is not expected to produce much, though up to a few inches are possible on the Massachusetts South Shore. Back to the west and north, ocean clouds may never reach and those areas of interior southern New Hampshire into north central and east central MA and down into RI will enjoy some sunshine. On Thursday, clouds will overspread all areas as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. Like so many of its predecessors, this system will redevelop and intensify off the southern New England Coast, but this time it should do this a little further offshore and keep the heaviest precipitation out over water. Nevertheless, there will be enough for some accumulating snow from the primary storm and mainly over southeastern areas from the redevelopment. That storm will move away by early Friday but as it is intensifying it will pull some very cold air down from eastern Canada again and drag it across New England with a strong wind. The next in the line of storms will drop out of the Great Lakes and off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast by late Saturday and early Sunday. This system is likely to explode into a monster storm over the water but at this time I expect this to be just far enough out there to only side-swipe southeastern New England with a bit of snow, but along with strong wind and very cold air. This system would have high impact with snow if it came a little closer, so we need to keep a very close eye on this one. Regardless of its exact track, as it moves away it will pull even colder air in behind it, which will last through Monday (Presidents Day). By Tuesday, the next storm system will come out of the Ohio Valley and run into this cold air and you know what that means…yet another snow threat, details and timing to be worked out.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows ranging widely from near -5 interior valleys to +15 Cape Cod. Wind N under 10 MPH except up to 15 MPH along coastal areas.
WEDNESDAY: Coastal clouds increase in eastern MA including ocean-effect snow showers developing, especially along the South Shore of MA where locally 2-4 inches of snow may occur. More sun inland. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, gusting over 20 MPH from the South Shore of MA to Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Coastal clouds and flurries linger across southeastern MA. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows in the 10s. Wind light NE to E early then shifting to N later.
THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Snow developing from west to east late in the day and continuing at night. Early call on accumulation… Coating to 2 inches north and west of Boston, 2-4 inches southeast of a Boston-to-Providence line and possibly Cape Ann, except 4-8 inches outer portion of Cape Cod. Highs around 30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but becoming NE to N and increasing to 15-25 MPH in eastern areas at night.
FRIDAY: Early clouds and snow showers eastern areas otherwise clearing and windy. Temperatures fall into the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunshine but high clouds increase from the W and thicken at night. Low 0. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of snow eastern areas, then increasing sun from west to east later. Strong wind. Low 5. High 15.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny and windy. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day snow. Low -5. High 20.

6:32PM

For this blog entry, I’ll keep it simple and short. Whether you love snow or loathe it, you are probably worn out from the insanity of what Nature has thrown at many of us in southern New England since January 24. And yes, it’s only been 2 1/2 weeks, and no, you’re not dreaming. This weather pattern may very well be similar to some of the ones that brought the “great snows” to the natives of the land and the early settlers from across the ocean in the 1600s, and again in the following century, but we can’t be 100% sure because we only have limited hand written accounts by a few people long since departed. We don’t have any satellite data or widespread observational data to examine, only what was written about these events. But another way to describe this pattern is basically the Winter pattern of Labrador, Canada, displaced several hundred miles to the south. We know that such a thing is possible, though rare, in the atmosphere. But here it is.

The only thing really left to say about the just-about-to-end long-duration event is that it performed almost as expected, with the surprises being the South Shore ocean-snow zone setting up early in the event and being heavier than expected. We did expect the ocean-effect bands near the coast, however. But honestly, there will be some amounts above what I was envisioning when I said “8-16 inches with pockets of heavier…” and in places that I thought would be closer to the top of that 8-16 range. Incredible.

So just a quick look at what’s coming up. The same pattern continues. There is no doubt about that. And there are 2 more storm threats, Thursday to early Friday, and sometime over the weekend, likely Sunday. I don’t need to remind you that the further away the event, the less confidence there is forecasting it, so here is my best guess which will be fine-tuned with time. The current system exits by early Tuesday and a break lasts through Wednesday. The next storm, a clipper system, drops into the trough over the Northeast on Thursday and explodes offshore. How close this happens dictates the outcome, and right now it looks like eastern portions of MA and NH stand the greatest chance of heavy snow and strong wind developing on Thursday and ending by early Friday. Very cold air follows this storm, which will include lots of blowing snow where it falls. Another storm threat exists around Sunday, with medium range guidance split between a near miss and a big hit, so we’ll split the difference for now and go for a graze. This threat should be over by Monday, a holiday for some, which will be another very cold day, assuring us that the snow is going nowhere anytime soon.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Blowing snow. Additional accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Lows from near 10 northwest of Boston to near 20 Cape Cod. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting around 30 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy start with additional snow showers near eastern coastal locations, then clearing. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny except more clouds near eastern coastal areas with a risk of snow showers. Highs around 30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow develops PM, possibly heavy at night including wind. Low 15. High 30.
FRIDAY: AM snow and wind. PM clearing. Low 10. High 20.
SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Low -5. High 15.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and wind. Low 5. High 15.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 0. High 15.