5:40PM

ONGOING…
Long-duration winter weather event continues. Through the middle of Sunday afternoon, snow amounts were generally from 1 to 6 inches across the region though little if any snow had fallen near parts of the South Coast, and heaviest amounts were up over portions of northern MA and southern NH. This portion of the event generally went as expected with waves of snow moving eastward along and north of a front that passed by yesterday, and a few pockets of ocean-enhanced snow from the east, though this was concentrated a little more to the south of Boston than I expected. The bulk of this event is still coming and will get underway this evening and last through Monday night before exiting early Tuesday. At this time, there are still no significant changes to the overall break-down of how I expect this to go. Mixing is still likely along the South Coast with limited snow totals there, and elsewhere additional moderate accumulation seems a certainty. The key to the accumulation forecast continues to be where enhancement takes place and the thinking has been this is most likely to be near and just west of a boundary somewhere near the coast from the Boston area to the NH Seacoast region, and also in some of the eastern slopes of the Worcester Hills. For now this remains the idea though little subtle details may still be yet to reveal themselves. For example, the boundary that I can detect has been a little further east and slower to start producing in areas to the north of Boston than I expected. That said, as of the writing of this update just after 5PM on Sunday, the radar trends upstream (to the west) tell me that a decent shot of snow will be coming tonight and probably continuing into tomorrow. We will have to see what happens with the potential enhanced snow areas. After debating with myself, I have decided to leave the snow totals alone for now, but may need to update them later. So the total snow for this event, INCLUDING snow that has already fallen, is still expected to be on the order of 2-4 inches South Coast, 4-8 inches just inland from the South Coast, and 8-16 inches elsewhere with pockets of greater than 16 inches in parts of northeastern MA, southeastern NH, and eastern slopes of hills.

UPCOMING…
The entire mess that created the long-duration event will be shifting offshore by early Tuesday in the form of elongated low pressure stretching north to south, quite different from the original look it had. But no matter, as it will be out of here. What arrives next is dry but chilly weather as a small area of high pressure comes in later Tuesday and persists through Wednesday. But here comes the next trough in a series and that will traverse the Northeast from west to east Thursday and early Friday. This presents the next snow threat and I still have a fair amount of questions to answer regarding how I think this will work out, snow-wise. For now, it appears that some type of snow event will take place starting early Thursday and ending early Friday, and it has the potential to be at least moderate. After it departs, the door opens for a strong shot of Arctic air later Friday and into the weekend. The magnitude of this cold is also somewhat uncertain, as this type of cold outbreak usually presents a fragile forecast with timing of the cold core very critical to daytime and nighttime temperatures, along with sky condition, wind, and precipitation. A lower confidence forecast will appear regarding any further snow chances, as I am leaning toward the drier side versus the stormy side, but recognize that there is indeed potential for something more important to evolve. One thing is for sure, it’s going to be quite cold next weekend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT AND MONDAY: Overcast with snow likely, some moderate to heavy, except some sleet/ice/rain near the South Coast. Additional snow accumulation at least 1-3 inches South Coast, 3-6 inches just inland from the South Coast, and 6-12 inches elsewhere with heavier pockets in above mentioned areas. Temperatures ranging from the middle 10s north to lower 30s far south. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty most areas except NE 10-20 MPH and gusty closer to the coast and especially over southeastern MA. Wind chill near 0 especially Boston north and west.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow showers. Additional light accumulation likely. Blowing snow. Lows 5-10 northwest of Boston, 10-15 Boston to Cape Cod. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 0.
TUESDAY: Early snow showers eastern coastal areas and may linger into mid morning Cape Cod, otherwise breaking clouds west to east with some sun. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH Cape Cod, 5-15 MPH elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.
FRIDAY: Chance of snow early. Clearing. Low 10. High 20.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows -10 to +5 northwest to southeast. Highs 5-15, coldest northwest.

9:54AM

SUMMARY…
This is just a quick update to the previous post. There are no changes to the discussion there, and the next one will be posted tonight, so for now I am just going to repost a slightly tweaked forecast from that update including the total snowfall accumulation forecast, which I have left alone at this time. Also, will add next Saturday for the new “day 7” and then later tonight will revisit the entire thing and forecast the coming 7 days through next Sunday.

SNOW…
***TOTAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR EVENT FROM START TO FINISH: 2-4 inches immediate South Coast, 4-8 inches just away from South Coast from central RI eastward across Upper Cape Cod, and 8-16 inches elsewhere, and spotty amounts above 16 inches are likely along east coastal MA and NH as well as a few towns on eastern slopes of higher hills.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of snow, mostly light. Additional accumulation around 1 inch with locally 2 inches mainly north of the Mass Pike. Temperatures nearly steady from 15-20 southern NH to near 30 South Coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Steadier snow, mostly light to moderate with a few heavier bands favoring east coastal areas of MA and NH. Additional accumulation of 2 to 10 inches from south to north with locally heavier possible in parts of northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Also, sleet/ice/rain mixing near the South Coast at times. Temperatures nearly steady ranging from the upper 10s northern MA and southern NH to lower 30s South Coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, later Monday, shifting more to the NE and N Monday night.
TUESDAY: Early snow showers especially eastern areas otherwise clearing. Breezy. Highs in the 20s.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM snow or snow showers. Low 20. High 30.
FRIDAY: Early snow, then clearing and windy. Low 0. High 10.
SATURDAY: Sun & high clouds. Low -10. High 5.

11:32AM

SUMMARY…
Time to focus on the well-advertised long-duration snow event. The set-up has been described in previous entries but let’s review quickly. An arctic cold front settles southward across southern New England today and then sits just off the South Coast for the rest of the weekend as a couple waves of low pressure ride along it, producing periods of snow, first very patchy and light this afternoon then a little more so tonight and Sunday, then with the most widespread precipitation coming Sunday night and Monday as a final and slightly stronger wave of low pressure moves along the front. This final wave may come a little bit closer, enough to introduce mixed precipitation to South Coastal locations, but at this time I don’t see any mix coming further north than that as the cold air will be a stronger force, aided by a deep snow cover across just about all of southern New England. Snow amounts from the entire episode are about to be listed below and I will try to re-visit them by time period in the forecast that follows this summary. It’s important to note that there can be large variations in snowfall across the region, not only due to the somewhat disorganized nature of the precipitation associated with these disturbances, but also due to ocean-enhancement which will likely be a factor near the eastern coastal areas of MA and NH, and then the mix factor possibly being involved near the South Coast later in the event. ***TOTAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR EVENT FROM START TO FINISH: 2-4 inches immediate South Coast, 4-8 inches just away from South Coast from central RI eastward across Upper Cape Cod, and 8-16 inches elsewhere, and spotty amounts above 16 inches are likely along east coastal MA and NH as well as a few towns on eastern slopes of higher hills. There are some signs that the entire event may try to wrap up a bit earlier than previously though, but for now will leave the chance of snow showers in eastern NH and MA into Tuesday morning especially Cape Cod due to cold north wind over relatively warmer water behind the intensifying final low pressure wave. A quick “break” comes later Tuesday and Wednesday as a narrow high pressure area moves in, though it will be fairly cold but not frigid. A clipper low pressure system and attendant Arctic front comes through the region next Thursday with a minor snow event, but opens the door for a major cold blast to end the week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clouding up. Patchy light snow possible this afternoon with less than 1 inch accumulation. Highs 25-30 southern NH and northern MA, 30-35 to the south, then falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind light SW shifting to NW then N from north to south across the region.
TONIGHT & SUNDAY: Overcast. Periods of snow, mostly light to moderate. Accumulation 2 to 6 inches through this period with locally heavier possible in parts of northeastern MA and southeastern NH, and areas of below 2 inches closer to the South Coast. Temperatures nearly steady from 15-20 southern NH to near 30 South Coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Steadier snow, mostly light to moderate with a few heavier bands favoring east coastal areas of MA and NH. Additional accumulation of 2 to 8 inches from south to north with locally heavier possible in parts of northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Also, sleet/ice/rain mixing near the South Coast at times. Temperatures nearly steady ranging from the upper 10s northern MA and southern NH to lower 30s South Coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, later Monday, shifting more to the NE and N Monday night.
TUESDAY: Early snow showers especially eastern areas otherwise clearing. Breezy. Highs in the 20s.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow or snow showers. Low 20. High 30.
FRIDAY: Sunny and windy. Low -5. High 10.

8:54AM

SUMMARY…
Below zero temperatures greet many early morning risers and those temperatures will struggle to rise but will finally make it to the 10s in most areas during the day. Though not too windy, a bit of a breeze will add a bit to the air at times. Expect a dry day as we are in between yesterday’s snow-producing Arctic front and the upcoming prolonged snow event, you know, that well-advertised snow event that according to some computer models was going to dump 1 to 2 feet of snow on much of southern New England? Shame shame shame if you believed that. 😉 What is really about to happen is we’ll see Arctic high pressure banked up across northern New England and southeastern Canada supplying plenty of cold air, and a frontal boundary sitting just south of New England with 2 or 3 areas of low pressure moving along it. These will provide episodes of snow starting by Saturday afternoon and ending by Tuesday afternoon. During this time, there will likely be several inches of snow accumulating across most locations. I’ve been tossing numbers around in my head and am starting to feel comfortable with the idea of 3-6 inches along the South Coast with a few spotty higher amounts, and 6-10 inches everywhere else but with spotty amounts of greater than 10 inches possible, especially due to ocean-enhancement in coastal areas from Boston to the NH Seacoast. The wildcard will be the last low pressure wave which has slight potential to develop a little stronger than the others and therefore enhance snowfall. This would be later Monday into early Tuesday. By the middle of next week, we will have said bye to the snow train and will see a dry and cold day Wednesday and then another threat of snow from a clipper system on Thursday as the harsh February pattern continues.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 10s. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 10s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Clouding up. Periods of snow in the afternoon with less than 2 inches. Highs in the 20s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY & MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow with moderate accumulation most likely (see above). Temperatures steady mainly in the 10s southern NH and northern MA, 20s to 30 southern MA and RI.
TUESDAY: Snow ends. Clearing and windy. Low 15. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.

8:42AM

Good morning all. I apologize for the lack of updates the last couple of days. Been dealing with 2 health issues that have slowed me down. Here is a short update to catch you up on my thoughts regarding the upcoming weather…

SUMMARY…
Arctic cold front slides through southern New England from northwest to southeast today with a band of snow, though fairly minor in accumulation will result in slick spots, especially where some overnight light rain/freezing rain fell in relatively mild air. Behind this front the snow lingers briefly then ends, and temperatures plunge as Arctic air moves in with winds picking up. Anything on the ground will freeze solid and the air will have a nasty bite to it right into Friday as the wind stays up, though Friday’s weather will be dry. Saturday through Tuesday will be a stretch of snowy weather as a frontal boundary sets up just to the south with ripples of low pressure riding along it, and a big Arctic high centered to the north of the region in eastern Canada. This is the type of set up that will produce snow much of the time, but light to moderate in intensity for the balance of the event. Accumulation mounts up, but fairly slowly. We’ll just have to watch for one slightly stronger low coming along Monday or early Tuesday that could enhance snow across the region. Otherwise some of the higher prolonged snow totals would be near eastern coastal areas due to ocean enhancement. These details will be fine-tuned as we get closer… Dry and cold weather is expected to return by the middle of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast with a band of snow moving northwest to southeast across the region morning-midday followed by a clearing trend later in the day. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches northwest of Boston, coating to 2 inches Boston southeastward. Temperatures fall from the 30s to the 20s southern MA and RI, 20s to the 10s northwest of Boston. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -10 to +5, coldest in south central NH and north central MA, least cold urban centers and South Coast. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill -10 to -20.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM light snow. Low 10. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Low 15. High 25.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Low 20. High 30.
TUESDAY: Snow ending. Clearing. Low 15. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 20.

9:06PM

COMMENTARY…
This is it folks, “the pattern”. This is the type of Winter pattern that delivers some of the impressive Winter storms and very cold weather and there has been no shortage of either during the last 10 days. In fact, Boston had been sitting at 5.5 inches of snow for the Winter as we entered the final week of January, and since then in the last 10 days has managed to set a record for the snowiest 10 day period on record. And Lunenburg, the winner of the snow jackpot, has received about 50 inches of snow from 2 storms during the last 6 days! And guess what? There is more cold and threats of snow in the pipeline for at least the next week and probably way beyond that, based on the current and upcoming pattern.

SUMMARY…
About that pattern. Lots of cold air available in Canada, a trough in the East, frequent pieces of energy coming around that trough, boundaries nearby, etc. … well you know the rest of the story. Let’s just get to the forecast for now and break down the systems ahead in the next blog.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Snow ends. Flash freeze Cape Cod and Islands. Blowing and drifting snow. Cloudy start then clearing. Lows -5 to 0 northwest of Boston, 0-10 elsewhere, mildest along the coast and over Cape Cod. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill -10 to -20 at times.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Occasional blowing snow. Highs 15-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures rising into the 20s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely. Highs 30-35. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 25.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.
MONDAY: Clearing. Low 5. High 25.

7:17AM

SUMMARY…
Let’s get right to it. The stormy pattern is producing another one for us to start the week here in southern New England as low pressure moves eastward just barely south of the South Coast Monday. This will be a high impact event with heavy snow to start the morning, a mix/change line moving into southern areas and just about up to near Boston for a while, a big temperature contrast from north to south, a flash freeze in areas that were milder and had some sleet/ice/rain during a portion of the storm, some coastal flooding concerns, and strong winds upon departure of the system by Monday night. The Arctic cold that follows this storm will be short lived but last through Tuesday before a temperature recovery just ahead of another front on Wednesday. That front may bring some snow showers Wednesday. It’s still a little unclear how things play out exactly at the end of the week and into the weekend, but we will be near a frontal boundary and some additional very cold air so there may be some additional snow threats.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
MONDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, through midday except a change to sleet/freezing rain/rain across the South Coast and Cape with some mixing with sleet working north toward Boston before the change/mix line goes back to the south during the afternoon with light to moderate snow all areas. Temperature ranging from the 10s southern NH and north central MA to the 30s to near 40 Cape Cod and Islands before falling later. Wind NE to N in areas northwest of Boston but NE to E for a time to the south of Boston increasing to 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast with higher gusts, shifting to N all areas later with gusts to 30 MPH inland and over 40 MPH near the coast.
MONDAY NIGHT: Snow ends west to east, clouds break later. Total snow accumulation 1-3 inches South Coast, 3-6 inches just inland from South Coast, 6-12 inches elsewhere with pockets of higher amounts especially north and west of Boston. Areas of blowing snow. Lows 0-5 except 5-10 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 0.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 10s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 30.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 25.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 25.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 25.

2:38AM

SUMMARY…
An area of high pressure building to the north of southern New England will bring dry and cold weather today, but an approaching low pressure area from the Midwest will spread high cloudiness into the region, which will thicken up tonight. This low will move eastward, passing south of New England Monday, before turning northeastward toward the waters east of New England Monday night. This track is a good set-up for a snowstorm here across southern New England, though enough mild air may work in aloft at mid storm to cause a sleet/freezing rain mix or change in far southern areas, mainly along the South Coast. After the storm pulls away, a shot of wind and cold will take over and last into Tuesday with dry weather. A weak low pressure area will approach from the Great Lakes Wednesday with cloudiness and some snow showers, along with an easing of the cold. The low will drag a cold front through the region which will then not get that far offshore Thursday and Friday. We’ll need to watch for the development of one or more waves of low pressure along this front which may threaten the region with unsettled weather late in the week. Another shot of dry and cold weather is likely on Saturday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 20-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow develops southwest to northeast with an inch or two possible by dawn. Lows around 10. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with or turn to sleet and freezing rain near the South Coast and even plain rain on parts of Cape Cod and the Islands. Significant snow accumulation for much of the region with at least 6 inches and as much as a foot or more possible where it is all snow. Highs 15-20 southern NH and northern MA, 20s to lower 30s to the south. Wind NE increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N late with even stronger gusts likely at night.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 35.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 20.

2:24AM

SUMMARY…
A weak low pressure area traversed southern New England on Friday with periods of snow. This low redeveloped off of Cape Cod later in the day and is in the process of deepening as it moves northward through the Gulf of Maine into the Maritime Provinces of Canada. It has dragged down very cold air from Canada and some additional light snow and blowing snow has been ongoing. The new low was a little too far out to bring significant snow back into eastern New England, as had been a possibility. But the real story for Saturday will be the cold and the wind. This wind will diminish tonight into Sunday as high pressure dominates, though cold air will hang on. Clouds will arrive later Sunday ahead of an advancing low pressure area from the Ohio Valley. This system will be infused with some Gulf of Mexico moisture and will bump into cold air in place over New England on Monday. This will bring snow to the region. The details are being determined, but a significant snow seems quite likely. The progressive nature of this system means it will be moving right along and out of here, setting the stage for a dry and very cold day on Tuesday. Temperatures will recover a little during Wednesday but another low pressure system will develop along a front that brings colder air back in by early Thursday, bringing another threat of snow later Thursday into Friday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in eastern MA and southeastern NH with sunshine elsewhere, then sun expanding northeastward. Areas of blowing snow. Highs 15-20. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +5, coldest interior valleys. Diminishing NW wind.
SUNDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs in the 20s. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely. Low 10. High 20 north, 30 south.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow or rain showers. Low 15. High 40.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow late. Low 20. High 30.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow followed by late clearing. Low 25. High 30.

7:43AM

SUMMARY…
Sometimes storms systems are straightforward and relatively easy to forecast, and sometimes they are quite the opposite. The one moving through the northeastern US is one of the tough ones, first to determine if we’d get significant accumulation from the first part of the system, which is weakening and elongated low pressure passing through during the day today, and second to determine who would get significant accumulation and who would get virtually nothing from the rapid redevelopment of the system off the coast tonight. The forecast that follows will spell out my conclusions. Once this complex system pulls away, it’s windy and very cold for the balance of Saturday and then less windy but still cold Sunday. A second storm threat comes Monday in the form of low pressure sliding out south of southern New England. The track of this system will determine how much of southeastern New England gets into a snow shield, and how much falls. More dry and very cold weather comes Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. A third storm threat comes Thursday but is too far away to go into any detail.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow, some mix/rain of Boston. Accumulation of a coating to 1 inch some areas. Highs in the 30s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming variable then N later in the day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow redevelops in eastern MA and southern NH, with a few snow showers elsewhere. Accumulation of 2-5 additional inches especially immediate Boston area northward into southeastern NH with some 6+ inch amounts possible northern Essex County MA into southeastern NH. Lows in the 10s. Wind N increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Blowing snow at times especially eastern areas.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers early then clearing. Highs around 20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH and gusty.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Low 5. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow likely. Low 10. High 20.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
THURSDAY: Snow or mix possible. Low 25. High 35.

8:57PM

SUMMARY…
You want to know what’s next? I’ll tell you. Cold weather and additional threats of snow, but no immediate threats of any blockbuster storms such as the one we just experienced here in southern New England. I see three threats in the pipeline, but only 2 that fall within the 7-day forecast period, so those are the two that will be dealt with here. But first, COLD. A cold night tonight as high pressure settles in behind the departed storm. And a clear sky, light wind, and deep snowcover with very dry air in place combine to allow for very cold air, and that’s what will happen overnight. Bright sunshine Thursday may give way to some high clouds later in the day as a low pressure system in the Great Lakes and Midwest advances toward the Northeast and those clouds will then cover the sky during tomorrow night, leading to an unsettled day Friday. Currently it looks like the initial low pressure area will come in as a north-south elongated system with the main center passing through central New England. It should have enough cold air to work with for some accumulating snow, though fairly minor in amount, during the day on Friday with enough mild air for some mixing or rain along the South Coast to Cape Cod. The wildcard is what happens on Friday night and early Saturday. There are strong signs that the low will redevelop and rapidly intensify just off the coast then move through the Gulf of Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. The position of redevelopment and rate of intensification will determine how much, if any, back-lash snow reaches portions of southern New England. It looks like a pretty certain bet that much of Maine will get a decent snowfall out of it, and a fair chance that eastern NH and possibly northeastern MA get at least a glancing blow from it, but not sure if that would extend into other parts of eastern MA including Boston. Something to watch closely. Whatever takes place should be moving out by early Saturday, which will end up a windy and very cold day. A core of Arctic air will come by Saturday night and early Sunday with quite a chill. During Sunday, clouds will rapidly advance in ahead of a wave of low pressure coming out of the Ohio Valley. Though it is several days away, I’m leaning toward this system passing south of New England Sunday night and early Monday, but close enough for the chance of some snow into southern New England. It does not look like a big storm based on this thinking, but we’ll have to watch this for any shifts. Another shot of very cold air follows for Monday night through Wednesday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to 0 inland, 0 to +15 coast. Wind calm.
THURSDAY: Sunny until the end of day when high clouds advance from west. Highs 25-30. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Chance of snow except mix South Coast toward dawn. Temperatures steady 25-30 except rising to lower 30s South Coast. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow of 1 to 3 inches morning and midday except snow/mix/rain with snow accumulation less than 1 inch South Coast / Cape Cod. A period of snow possible northeastern MA into NH at night with additional accumulation. Highs in the 30s. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 10. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 25.

2:43AM

POST-STORM…
After so many updates, you’ll forgive me if, for now, I leave out a written summary of the big storm just departing, and provide you with 3 links from the National Weather Service. They will appear below in the comments section.

SUMMARY…
A classic week of Winter weather in southeastern New England. The big one has departed, mostly. There have been lingering patches of snow right into the early morning hours across eastern MA and southeastern NH but it’s finally all pulling away except a few last flakes on Cape Cod this morning. As upper level low pressure still has its influence on the region for a while today, some cloudiness will linger, but a ridge from the west will push this out and sun will increase later. Looking ahead, high pressure will bring a nice Winter day Thursday, but on its heels will quickly arrive another low pressure area from the west. This one will be an elongated system (north to south) and though the primary low center will likely pass over or just north of this area, another low is likely to redevelop just southeast and east of the region, offshore. This spells an episode of snow for part of Friday, a break, and then possibly some back-lash snow from the new storm Friday night to very early Saturday. There is some chance this second feature ends up a little further offshore and not as impacting, but it is something that needs to be watched just due to its expected close proximity. There will be some snow accumulation from the initial system, either way, but it does not look like all that much. Behind this, a shot of very cold air arrives for Saturday into Sunday. Then later Sunday clouds come back as another low approaches from the southwest in a faster flowing jet stream. The track of this is a little uncertain, but I’d favor a southern track, colder air holding, and a chance of snow later Sunday night into Monday. A dry and cold day will follow this on Tuesday, based on current timing.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny this morning with a few lingering snow showers near Cape Cod. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-10 inland, 10-15 coast. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow morning to midday, a break, then a chance of more snow at night especially eastern MA and southeastern NH. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early, especially eastern MA and southeastern NH. Low 20. High 25.
SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Clouding up afternoon. Chance of snow at night. Low 5. High 25.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Low 25. High 30.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

1:56PM

Storm has now pulled most of its snow right into eastern and parts of central MA and southeastern NH as well as eastern CT across RI. The heaviest snow band stretches from the NH Seacoast down through eastern MA including Boston. This band will vary and wobbled around a little as it slowly starts to weaken during the afternoon, and additional weaker bands may try to form into the evening but overall the entire system will begin its departure phase from now through around midnight or shortly after. Another band is still hanging around 495 to near Worcester but should weaken and pull eastward during the afternoon.

Additional accumulations of 3-6 inches are possible under the heaviest bands, with lighter amounts elsewhere where snow continues to fall. This results in total storm accumulations in the 18-25 inch range in many areas but pockets of 25-33 inch amounts in some locations including the 495 belt NW of Boston down through the Worcester area into the far southwestern suburbs of Boston, and in some sections of northeastern MA from Cape Ann down to near Boston and in parts of the South Shore. The 18-25 inch band will include most of Cape Cod except for lesser amounts on parts of the Outer Cape and down across the Islands.

For this update I will post the forecast from before. An evening update will include a fully updated discussion and forecast with a better look at the weekend and early next week, which present a couple more snow threats.

Heading outside to start moving some of the snow, with help thankfully. 🙂 See you this evening!

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
THIS AFTERNOON: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Nantucket. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Snow ends gradually west to east in eastern areas. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow early, then clearing. Low 10. High 20.

We have found our jackpot zone! That would be the hills in Worcester County from the city southward along the towns of the eastern slopes of the hills. For a while last night I thought it may not happen and briefly pulled back the amounts, but shortly after that, it got going good there and I had to quickly up the amounts (and hope nobody noticed the oops – hehehe). Seriously, lots of snow out there. At least it is a dry and powdery snow and not clinging to trees and piling up on roofs.

As we had expected, we’re starting to see more pronounced gaps developing between heavier bands. One such gap is extending from part of the South Shore to near Narragansett Bay at this time, with the heaviest snow band just west of there in the I-495 belt to the west and northwest of Boston down toward Worcester and down to northwestern RI.

The rest of this update is just a tweak of the previous forecast, but more to come as the day goes on…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Nantucket. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 18 TO 25 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW MUCH OF EASTERN MA, 10-18 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS CAPE COD, 8-14 INCHES NANTUCKET.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow early then partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow early, then clearing. Low 10. High 20.

Sorry all. Took a few hours off. Verified suspicions of tighter storm with eastward trend overall. Total accumulations being adjusted slightly to include a little less to the west and a little more for Cape Cod. Believe the highest totals will be in eastern MA.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Snow, heavy at times, especially coastal NH through eastern and southern MA and southward through RI. Some other heavier bands push further west. Blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures steady 13-20 northwest, 20-30 further southeast. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Nantucket. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 18 TO 25 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW MUCH OF EASTERN MA, 10-18 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS CAPE COD, 6-12 INCHES NANTUCKET.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow early then partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow early, then clearing. Low 10. High 20.