Weekend Update #2

344 Comments

2:38AM

SUMMARY…
An area of high pressure building to the north of southern New England will bring dry and cold weather today, but an approaching low pressure area from the Midwest will spread high cloudiness into the region, which will thicken up tonight. This low will move eastward, passing south of New England Monday, before turning northeastward toward the waters east of New England Monday night. This track is a good set-up for a snowstorm here across southern New England, though enough mild air may work in aloft at mid storm to cause a sleet/freezing rain mix or change in far southern areas, mainly along the South Coast. After the storm pulls away, a shot of wind and cold will take over and last into Tuesday with dry weather. A weak low pressure area will approach from the Great Lakes Wednesday with cloudiness and some snow showers, along with an easing of the cold. The low will drag a cold front through the region which will then not get that far offshore Thursday and Friday. We’ll need to watch for the development of one or more waves of low pressure along this front which may threaten the region with unsettled weather late in the week. Another shot of dry and cold weather is likely on Saturday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 20-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow develops southwest to northeast with an inch or two possible by dawn. Lows around 10. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with or turn to sleet and freezing rain near the South Coast and even plain rain on parts of Cape Cod and the Islands. Significant snow accumulation for much of the region with at least 6 inches and as much as a foot or more possible where it is all snow. Highs 15-20 southern NH and northern MA, 20s to lower 30s to the south. Wind NE increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N late with even stronger gusts likely at night.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 35.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 20.

344 thoughts on “Weekend Update #2”

    1. At the moment yes. I’m a little conflicted as to what may happen with the mix area. There is going to be a slug of very mild air aloft not that far away and any slight jog in that storm track to the N will drag it right up.

  2. Ticket situation at Super Bowl has improved … you can now get a ticket for about $7-8,000 which is the down from yesterday’s $10,000. Parking passes are available at $140. Supply and demand clearly working in favor of the consumer. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I’d say nfl dragging its feet and creating a game draw at the expense of the pats is helping them 🙁

  4. 6z gfs and nam shift only SLIGHTLY north. Nothing to write home about though. Still all snow, continues with theme of 12-14in for Boston and surrounding areas.

    1. Friday night and early yesterday morning there was talk about snow ratios of 12:1 as high as 15:1 even for Boston. I gather with a more northerly track that has changed now, at least for the city – south???
      I was really hoping for a fluffy light snow to shovel on Monday night!

      1. Not sure about ratios to be honest. I don’t think it will quite as light and fluffy as the blizzard, but it certainly won’t be as bad as waterlogged, icy banks of immovable snow!! (Provided the storm comes as modeled, that is.)

      2. 10:1 to the south of Boston, closer to 12:1 to the north.

        I also think precipitation may be overdone on the models and am leaning toward the lower side of my range for now, which I will start to refine by midday.

  5. Heavy dense fog in Phoenix early this morning (at 5am EST). Difficult to make out objects behind reporter!

  6. Though we are all focused on the Pats and the storm (in that order I hope), the variation in forecasted temps for this coming Sat is amazing. I have seen the high temp vary by as much as 18 degrees depending on which met you listen to.

    1. Day 7 interpretations. A good argument for the elimination of days 6 & 7 on the long range. People tend to focus on those #’s too much, in general. Not you, specifically, but in general. You’re going to notice it because of your interest in weather. 🙂

    1. The NWS must feel pretty confident with their snow map because their maximum potential is only about 1 or 2 inches above their “most likely” map and their “at least this much” map is pretty much 6+ for all of central and northern MA. The drop-off because of mixing to the south. is evident on all versions.

  9. Readjusting my guesses to a post I made yesterday 🙂 , (to acct for brief intrusion of mild air aloft a bit further north).

    Lowell : 10″, Logan : 12″, Marshfield : 8″, Hyannis : 6″, Nantucket : 3″

    I’m pretty sure this is what I guessed yesterday …

    Lowell : 6″, Logan : 10″, Marshfield : 13″, Hyannis : 9″, Nantucket : 5″

  11. Mixing does not make it Boston. Snow ratios may be lower but we get into the heavier QPF as the storm is a tad north. 10-15 still appears likely for most except SE MA and CC/Islands.

  13. Good morning all.

    GAME DAY, bring on the Sea Hawks! GO PATS!!!! Can’t wait.

    Re: storm

    6Z GFS reverts back to the More Northerly track. Still plenty of Snow for Boston, but
    mix with that run.
    ALL other MODELS => ALL SNOW for Boston.

    Nam and GFS snowmaps postd above. The 06C High resolution RGEM has gone bonkers! I get qpf out of that one at 1.9+ inches. Haven’t looked at the snow map
    yet, so here goes:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020106/rgem_asnow_neus_12.png

    That map is HORRID. If any of you can sort out those colors, you are far far better than I.

    For comparison, here is the qpf map from the other site:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&type=PR&hi=000&hf=048&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc

    That’s 30-50mm across the area OR 1.18 inches to 1.97 inches.

    Additional I got the following approx. qpf

    Ukmet .98 inch
    NAM 1.18 inch
    GFS 1.18 inch
    FIM 1-2 inches

    Here is the FIM snow map

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2015020100/t3/totsn_sfc_f060.png

    Places Boston in the Jackpot of 12-18 inches which is misleading since the next gradient is 10-12 inches. So in reality it’s probably 12-14 inches.

          1. 8-12 seems a bit low and 12-16 seems a bit high. Let’s compromise and call it 10-14 for that entire area.

    1. Very sharp temperature gradient at the 850mb level. Very sharp. At surface as well. If anyone gets into wetter snow/mix/changeover, it will fast become
      solid cement when those temps collapse back down. BRUTAL!

      BTW, NAM also has Boston in the Jackpot area. Just what the City needs.

      Final snow map as soon as available.

  18. Oh Boy, NAM brings 0C line even closer. Now literally at the City Door Steps:

    http://i.imgur.com/JnC4mpb.png

    This is in the hour by hour portion of the NAM so can get a really good ides of what’s happening. Sleet likely to mix in all the way up to almost the City. No matter. So much
    snow it’s going to be a disaster anyway.

  19. I’m curious as to why TK thinks models are overdoing precip. The storm looks pretty loaded to me. Wherever the northern edge sets up there will be dry air issues, but that’s probably way up in northern New England. I think the highest amounts will probably be a little ways NW of Boston, although we shouldn’t see the same huge levels of local variation with this storm as the blizzard. Yesterday morning I think I guessed 12″ for Boston. I’ll shave it to 10″ now since ratios will be lower and Boston will probably change over to mix for a brief time. 7″ for Providence. 12″ Worcester.

  21. SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
    ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

    WE BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S…DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST

  23. What I would like to know is where people are going put this snow and where are they going to put their cars?

    2. I “think” I have mentioned that a few times. Pray for the fluff stuff.
      I can’t imagine a change/mix to sleet and worse yet a brief change to rain
      and then flash freeze. Gimmie the FLUFF please.

  24. Its funny ……

    The blizzard, where we located and how much it would snow seemed relatively straightforward. We weren’t in NY city’s forecasting quandry boat.

    But, this storm …….

    I know what I think is going to happen, but I’m real uncertain on IF it happens.

    A vey thin layer of mild air can turn 10-12 inches into 2-3 inches with a ton of sleet.

    From a, will my guesses verify standpoint, I feel very uncertain about this event. Very.

    1. Tom where 12Z Runs show sleet line “almost” to Boston, it sure wouldn’t
      take much to zip it up here for awhile. However, under no scenario do I
      see it reducing accumulation in Boston to 2-3 inches. Boston might go from something like 14 to 10 or 11 perhaps, as it would be short lived. Even in Marshfield, not 2-3 inches. You “could” End up with something like 6 inches of snow and sleet.

      1. Agreed OS and I am thinking exactly what you describe. Its just that worst case verification scenario popping into my head this go around. 🙂 🙂

  27. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 3m3 minutes ago Massachusetts, USA
    @gilsimmons @danburyweather @DarrenSweeney here in Boston we look all white. Could be about 31F w pasting snow 1pm, then to about 12F by 4pm

  28. I’m going with 9 inches in Boston – with some mixing during the midday period. Jackpot area will likely be towns like Woburn, Bedford, Concord, with close to a foot. I think Marshfield and much of the south coast get much less snow: 3 inches or so, with lots of mixing and some plain rain. The Cape will have initial burst of snow followed by mostly rain. All in all, a brutal day. Worse in some ways than last Tuesday.

    The problem as I see it is a weak Arctic High to our north. The battle zone is clear. I think the Low wins out for a while as it pushes through bringing milder air with it.

    1. I don’t agree with much of a mix in Boston, but also don’t think I agree with higher (12-16) total. I’ll go 10-12in in the city.

      Regardless, we really don’t want that warm air intrusion. What a mess.

    2. I think your thought process is good, except I think you have over done
      it just a tad. IF Boston mixes or goes to sleet, it won’t be for long, thus
      not cutting into accumulations as much. Even with Mix, I think Boston
      does 10-12. Without Mix boston does 14-16.

      If mix goes farther north all bets are off. I don’t see that happening.

      Sleet “should” stop just short of Boston, but If it goes Farther, Boston is it and briefly.

  29. If we match the current radar and where the best snowfall is currently happening, to the 2 awesome snow maps OS posted above …..

    I think an argument could be made that in overlapping the curent radar to the 2 maps, one at a time, what is actually happening for the heaviest snow is occuring just south of what the 06z snowmap is showing and is in better agreement with the 00z map.

    Its a very small, subtle difference, but I really honed in on the Chicago area, in particular.

    2. I think it might be from a few days ago, only because I see an initialized date of Fri Jan 30th, if I am reading it correctly.

      1. You are so right. My bad for NOT double checking before Posting.

        It’s my fault. That was an old tweet that got re-tweeted so I thought it was new and just ran with it.

        I’ll try to be more careful.

        We can count on Ole eagle eye Tom! Thanks

        1. LOL ……. Dont forget yesterday that I proclaimed the 0c surface isotherm down by the Cape on the 12z GFS and in reality, it was out by like, Worcester. LOL !

  32. Even with wrong tweet above, Looking at Euro on the Wundermap, it did
    look like LESS QPF.

    Anyone with numbers? Thanks

  34. My other X factor in all this is …..

    Do we have to worry about a quicker end to the precip from the southwest because of the direction this entity is coming at us from ?

    1. If you believe Bernie Rayno, then there actually “may” be some back end snows.
      He mentioned it last night. This morning he is talking about phasing with
      Northern Stream throwing snow well back into Maine.

      1. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 14m14 minutes ago
        the implications with northern piece droping into trof (1) Mixing line further N (2) heavier snow N (3) snow hook back into Maine.

        He believes this is happening.

        I wonder IF the CMC hooked into this as it is DROPPING
        at TON of QPF!!!

  35. Has anyone seen the snow totals on TWC? Crazy amounts!! 12-18″ for Boston and 18-24 is the jackpot amount NW of the city!
    Also mentioned was the concern for icing in NYC!

    1. Poor NYC forecasters.

      On the edge, I think, again.

      This time, they definitely get their share of precip.

      But, what kind …….

    2. That’s what the CMC is showing. We’ll have to watch closely and see.
      Also, see above what Bernie Rayno is saying.

      This “phasing” is responsible for the mix line moving more North, but also
      for Heavier snowfalls where it doesn’t mix.

      Should be an interesting day, not matter what happens. Enjoy. 😀

    3. That’s what happens when your job is to find the model that forecasts the most snow and post it as your snow map. 🙂

  36. CMC is bad this Winter. Don’t even bother. It isn’t getting much of anything right.

    Why too much QPF on the models? Well not only do they do that frequently but they may be missing something we see alot on these W to E moving lows, and that is an eastward transfer of energy, not to a redeveloping low, but a line of convection from under the low center southward along its cold front. When this happens the northern precip shield is a little less punchy until later on when the system exits. It’s almost like redeveloping but using the same low center. Unless you have a really strong 700 to 500mb low coming along right over the top of you then you do not maximize your snow. Of course a positive NAO is going to allow this system to remain open around 700mb (I think I saw someone post an NWS statement on this as well). That will eliminate synoptic banding because you are not having a rapidly deepening, closing-off low, so instead you get a precipitation shield pretty much as is while it passes through. Not saying we don’t get into a heavy batch of precip. .. we will. But it may not last all that long. I also don’t think the mixing line gets to Boston. It should stay closer to the South Coast and may make a very brief run at the southern suburbs late morning before turning right around by noon. This thing is making its exit during the afternoon tomorrow though the snow will linger for a good several hours, just in a lighter form after early afternoon. Most of the accumulation is going to be from 6AM to noon. That’s not going to be a whole lot of time to get too many double digit snow amounts, especially since the snow:water ratios will not be particularly high.

      1. Heaviest stuff over by 1PM here, completely done by 8 or 9PM because light stuff may linger for quite a while on the cold advection behind the low.

  37. 12Z GFS is finally rolling. I think it was delayed some as it was CHOKING on
    the data input. Almost had an aneurysm!!

  40. Off to transition over to football, yes 🙂 🙂 this early.

    When the storm ends tomorrow night and we look back on it, I’ll be curious to see is IF …..

    A) any of the Cape Cod reporting stations ever got a S or SW surface wind because the low tracked as far north as some of these runs showed …..

    B) Boston stayed all snow ?

    C) Boston made it to or briefly surpassed 32F ?

    D) Marshfield had a change from snow and how long the other precip type lasted ….

    E) If Marshfield got above 32F and how long that lasted ….

    Go Pats, enjoy the game everyone !!!!

  41. I am sticking with my thoughts from all along. No mixing here in Boston. I actually think mix line will be further south than most think. Let’s say south of Plymouth area.

    Boston-12.9, JP, west Roxbury around 14.

    Worcester-14.8

    Jackpot will be Woburn 15.9.

    1. Nice.
      What’s with all of the .9s??? Cute.

      Pretty good that you can nail it down precisely to tenths. 😆 😆 😆

  42. I am hoping that mix line stays on the CT shoreline. I have a feeling its going to be close where I am. A thumping of snow a mixorama then back to snow. UGH!!! Hoping it stays all snow.

    1. Gil Simmons NEWS8 CT ‏@gilsimmons 3m3 minutes ago
      Snow to ICE for much of #Connecticut tomorrow. 7am ice shore then moving north through noon to around #Hartford.

  45. The Other TK is getting a little unnerved

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 47s47 seconds ago Massachusetts, USA
    what’s STFU? RT @MikeNamez @SurfSkiWxMan How about you go back to being a half assed meteorologist for some no name news outlet STFU Moron.

  47. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7m7 minutes ago
    MJO ECMWF bias correction now seeing MJO heading into the Holy grail of winter phases for US , 8,1,2

    1. Lucky.

      Waiting for my call. I suspect it will come just before kickoff. WHich means
      I have to record the staff message to be used with the robo call and initiate the call, thus missing the beginning of the game!!!!

  49. This forecast uncertainty is starting to piss me off. All Pats from this point on till first snowflakes.

  50. Good morning!! Today we have the most polarizing sports team in America playing in Americas biggest sports game, GO PATRIOTS!!!

    Snow event TOMMORROW doesn’t look like it did a few days ago, 3-6 with a change to sleet and possibly rain will hold accumulations down here.

    Enough weather I heard on NFL network this Super Bowl ratings could be in the 140M-160M viewers in America, we shall see 🙂 everyone enjoy the day and go Patriots
    Pregame begins at 1pm, anxiously nervous 🙂

    1. Wow a Canadian that has somewhat of a clue? Take 2 to 5 inches off of some of those and we’re good to go. 😉

  52. Now, when I went for 44.1 inches (just shy of normal) for Logan for this season, I suspected sometime in later February we’d be anxiously waiting to see if Boston could reverse a long trend and reach above normal in seasonal snowfall for a 3rd consecutive time, something that has not been done since 1977-1978. Of course, we sit here on February 1 staring at that possibility. Will this be the storm that puts them over the top? It’s going to be close.

      1. I “think” it is around 37 inches.
        I had though it was around 34.

        Close if it’s 34 should make it no sweat if it’s 37.

  59. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 27s28 seconds ago
    Boston should get a good 8-12 even if sleet mixes in from noon to mid afternoon

  61. TK – Any chance after tomorrow’s storm that we stay in the single digits in terms of snowfall amounts in future events for the rest of the month? I don’t know if the city of Boston can handle any more “major” snowfalls.

    My orginal snowfall prediction = 46.8″

    1. They can handle it. It was worse 3 winters ago during a 6 week barrage of snowstorms.

      I think the way the pattern is heading after this is frequent lighter snow events but it’s too early to rule out a couple larger ones at this stage.

      We are going to get an Arctic shot behind this coming storm, and another one later in the coming week, then the Arctic air is going byebyes for a while, though the pattern will stay somewhat active.

      2. The problem seems to be that the roads are worse than recent memory. I have yet to speak to anyone who hasn’t said the same. I totally agree they should be able to handle it but if they start off with a mess, chances decline IMHO

        1. I can assure you guys snow operations have been going non stop all week. Truck loads of snow being hauled out all week long. Snow melting is the way now and I believe some melters have been set up in various spots around the city .

          1. I believe you. I think part of it is planning in the bigger picture and people just being impatient. So many people somehow think their street is going to be and should be plowed first. It doesn’t work like that as you know. 🙂

  62. Boston will very likely get to its seasonal average from this storm, and if not we’ve got two more months that would surely get it all the way there. It’ll just become a matter of how far above average does it go. I think the city ends up close to 60″ for the season now. I think I predicted 40″ back in the fall… glad I busted low not high 🙂

    Meanwhile, nervously awaiting kickoff. Go Pats!! My prediction:

    Pats: 27
    Seattle: 24

  63. They need to win this one to prove to the world that they don’t cheat. All this cheating crap will fire them up in a big way. Edelman is MVP of the bowl with a standout performance .

    1. Love Edelman. Incredibly versatile athlete, and so underrated than no-one in the NFL signed him last off-season until the Patriots did. I was very surprised at that. There are so many overrated receivers earning more than Edelman, and doing far less.

      A loss would not be good for the reasons you cite. Plus, it would be a really big downer for Belichick, with the Hernandez trial unfolding (and his likely summons to testify against his will), the NFL’s decision on underinflated footballs, etc …

  64. Here is an observation I have made regarding streets and snow between last year and the short time we’ve had lots of snow around this Winter so far…

    Most town DPW’s or the equivalent do a great job, some with limited budgets and equipment. One exception around here may be Reading. I have been traveling to Reading 5 days a week for nearly a decade, and every time we have snow it’s the same thing. They do a very poor job in Reading. You will cross the line from Woburn to Reading and go from bare wet pavement to snowcovered slushy roads just like that.

    I think the problem with a lot of towns, however, is the initial plowing done by some of the hired contractors has been questionable. I have observed more and more of the pickup truck plowers out there doing a half-assed job (I KNOW there are a whole lot of good ones, and this is not a knock at them whatsoever). But lately there seems to be a bunch of them out there that don’t really seem to care about how neat their work is, and also that the rules of the road do not apply to them. I’ve been glared at by many, flipped off by some, etc. There is one that does some streets nearby to me that only clears enough for about a car and a half to fit down. This was not the case before. Once the city trucks arrive things improve rapidly.

    Again, not a knock at all the hard working and careful contractors out there. I don’t envy you for the hard work you have to do. I just wish the ones that are only out there to make the money without caring about the job they do would move on and let the good ones take over.

  69. My concern about the accuracy of the bigger snow totals continues to be this jump to a line of convection near and south of the low center as well as the speed of the system. The entire NW side of what will eventually become the occluded low may lose its steam very quickly and the heaviest snow will end on the early side. Still think double-digit totals may be more the exception than the rule between the southern areas having the mid level warming issue and the northern areas having a QP issue.

    1. For now I have them in a 6-12 band though I have my doubts about the 11 or 12 part of that. Mix line should get close mid storm then go back the other way just as the heaviest is about to be done. Back end snow does not look too impressive to me right now. Open wave to barely closing off at mid levels and energy translating eastward does not keep heavy stuff around for too long and doesn’t allow a whole lot of snow on the back side either. Don’t be surprised if I cut that 6-12 band back a bit this evening. I’m not going to make that choice on 18z data. 😀

        1. Because I’m going to wait until I’m more certain. I don’t care too much for having to be the first to “call it”. I don’t like that style and I’m not competing with anybody other than for fun in the contests we have here. When I feel it’s the right time, I’ll make it. I see too many factors that can “mess up” the going forecasts right now. Been doing this a long time.

      1. It tends to do decently well on the larger scale lows versus the smaller events from what I’ve seen. It did reasonably well last storm and extremely well on the similar 2013 storm, but this one has some different characteristics so we shall see.

    3. I saw that map. Doesn’t make sense to me. Too many Southerly dips in high
      accumulations. I thought that banding was not expected?

      If there can be a foot well South of Boston, why not Boston?

      2. I didn’t see any strong banding signatures there, but I did see elevation ones. I also didn’t notice a foot well south of Boston… Did we see the same map?

        1. See above. It dips a foot+ down to the MA/RI border
          and then farther West down to the MA/CT border.

          Map right above. Is it the same? It was provided by
          Jim Cantore. Tx

          1. Btw Elvevation? With this one it either Snows or Sleets in Boston. Elevation has nothing to do with it. I don’t get that?

            1. I was just saying what was showing on that map.

              I never said I believed it. 🙂

              It’s just that little thing that JMA and I mention: “applied meteorology” 🙂

              1. Yup. I’m simply trying to make sense of that map, given the atmospheric conditions in place and it just doesn’t jive for me. If it had been a linear line NW of Boston that went East/West or ENE/WSW down to Western MA N. CT, then I would understand and buy into it.

                They way it is depicted looks like
                garbage to me. 😀

                IF this were a complete ELEVATION storm say in the Fall or Spring, I would also buy into it. But that is NOT the case either.

                1. I’m not a fan of how that map is presented at all. It has its own built-in anomalies, just like but not exactly the same as the SREF snow maps.

  72. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 15m15 minutes ago
    Snow Emergency kicks in at 6 AM for Boston in addition to the school closing.
    0 replies 4 retweets 1 favorite
    Reply Retweet4 Favorite1
    More
    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 15m15 minutes ago
    No school Monday in Boston…many other communities will follow…especially as one and all cheer on the Pats ahead of the snow!

  73. Ace ‏@seckhardt 48m48 minutes ago
    A little surprising but the 18z HRRR does have the rain/snow line south of PHL after midnight. Didn’t earlier

  75. 18Z GFS Has a shitload of Sleet for Boston and even 20 miles or so N&W of the City
    before going back over to Snow. Perhaps even a brief total changeover not out of the question. Again, that’s just the 18Z GFS. One model and an 18Z run at that, but it has
    been consistent with this feature. We’ll have to watch for this.

    Here is the snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015020118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=039

    Zoomed

    http://i.imgur.com/bPeZEst.png

    Even with the sleet, that’s 10-12 inches for Boston.

    1. I’ve talked myself into this …….

      Models handling mild air intrusion aloft ok.

      Models terribly handling mild surface air intrusion in far, far SE Mass horribly.

      Think the bank of polar to arctic air over central New England northward wins easily at the surface.

      I do think Marshfield doesnt stay all snow, but I dont think we get plain rain either.

      We shall see.

      Can the game start now, I’m a nervous wreck !!

  79. Hello everyone. One thing I noticed is the sharp temperature gradient within 15 miles.
    my hometown Reading has a high temperature of 29 tommorow
    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=42.52680842387076&textField2=-71.10762821137206#.VM6gYsko7qB
    while 15 miles north lowell has a high temperature of 12 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-71.29432&lat=42.62597#.VM6hS8ko7qA
    Wilimngton has a 10 degree difference in temperature than Tewksbury which is only couple miles away also. Maybe this is where the heavy bands of snow will set up between the two different airmasses? Coastal front? I hope the mix line doesn’t get passed north of the pike

      1. I hope so, that way i don’t have to shovel heavy wet snow. What do you think our area is going to get. A foot?

        1. We may come up short of 1 foot here. But substantial nevertheless. I still have this zone in a 6-12 band for now.

  80. Tk can I get your call on two areas : first the Roxbury/Brookline area of Boston and second for Pembroke. And lastly for a bonus if you answer correctly the finish times and this would make you the #1 online met lol.

    1. Based on current thoughts…
      -Boston 9 inches, brief sleet mix at most but mix may never make it.
      -Pembroke 7 inches with a mix or sleet period mid storm.
      -End time for both areas before midnight for Boston, just after for Pembroke.

      1. Thank you very much. So midnight Tuesday that puts Tuesday as a possible snow day for both as well. Is it a sure bet this storm goes all day Monday?

  81. No school Pembroke. Tom must be thrilled as he’s next no work day after the SB that’s nice!!!!!

    1. Yes and no.

      I wont be able to wind down quickly after the game, with either result, so not having to get up so early sounds nice. 🙂

      But, that would move our last day to a Monday. 🙁

      1. …….. And only leave us 6 more days to work with in June.

        Usually, once we get down to 3 days to work with, the chatter of canceling one of the vacations starts up.

  82. Lack of model consensus suggests there will be some surprises tomorrow. This has some bust potential for Boston and points south in terms of snowfall. It will snow, but I would not be surprised in the city if accumulating snow only occurs between the wee hours of the morning and 10am, following by sleet and some rain mixed in, and then backside snow that doesn’t amount to much.

    1. How many days do schools get cause last week was the first cancelations right. This will be pembrokes third.

  84. From our friends at NWS: @NWSBoston: Latest data indicating the potential for 3 inch per hour snowfall rates Mon morning. Low risk for a clap or two of thunder!

  85. No school in Plymouth tomorrow. I have two boys who are very excited to stay up late now to watch the game. Go Pats!

    1. I thought the bad call on kickers plant leg was worse. Should have been first down. I have trouble calling one play as the determining factor

    2. Ya think? Hope that’s not the case at game’s end.
      AND that interception was STUPID STUPID STUPID and MORE STUPID!!!!!

      1. Almost as STUPID as letting Seattle marching down with 31 seconds left. DUMB DUMB DUMB DUMB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

  100. Very un-Patriot like performance thus far. Brady rarely throws interceptions like the one he threw. And, the Pats’ defense rarely gives up a touchdown with a half-minute to go in the half. I do recall the Packers also scored in a similar situation during the regular season against the Patriots.

    Btw, I think Barry’s numbers will be more or less accurate. Mixing and sleet will be a factor in the city and down the coast. I also think Boston will go to 34F/35F tomorrow for several hours, which means a terrible mess in the afternoon, with a flash freeze in the evening. It’s not going to be a pretty storm. Don’t wear your white pants to work tomorrow.

      1. Agreed, the score may show otherwise, but New England outplayed Seattle.

        Holding Seattle to a FG is nice, if Brady can get keep driving for TDs, that is a winning formula.

  101. Half time one of best we have seen in a long time. 20 month old and 7 yr old were dancing up a storm….as were the parents and the grands…..well some of us were dancing in our chairs 🙂

  105. Doesn’t look good. They can come back, but I’m doubtful.

    TK, I respectfully disagree. I think the Patriots were outfoxed in the first half. Possessed the ball a lot. They may have outplayed Seattle, too, but they wound up with little to show for it. Right now, the Pats look a mess. Brady’s not been awful. But, he’s been mediocre; tentative most of the night, and has thrown 2 uncharacteristically bad interceptions. The defense followed up with some terrible plays, letting Seattle roll over them.

    1. Yes, indeed. I prefer both baseball and hockey to football.

      Btw, Wilson is REALLY accurate when he throws a deep ball.

  108. Ii it just me or do the commercials stink? Most are serious with some social message. I want slapstick comedy darn it!!’

    1. Loved the bud one with the puppy. Thought the Viagra one was hysterical. Mac said you run out of gas in four hours. Others are depressing.

  109. Btw how can people say the pats are done? We came back from TWO 14 point deficits weeks ago. Seattles tank is running out just watch.

          1. Trying….Just in case I’m putting my words on a plate…with a little salt and pepper if needed 🙂

    2. My rule is you do not give up on this team until they are behind with no time left on the clock. That simple.

  110. Not sure how Brady can miss a wide open receiver in the end zone in the Super Bowl disgusting.

        1. I loved Krafts read between the lines comments. It has been one of the sweetest victories I recall and that’s saying something because they are all sweet

  127. I’m going to keep celebrating the victory but in the midst of it am writing a new blog now. Should be out before midnight. 🙂

  130. Just saw Barry Burbank.

    The model he presented and seemed to agree with had Marshfield at 38F briefly tomorrow, Cape Cod into the low 40s and a storm track over Cape Cod.

    I agree that mild air aloft is going to move north with some ease.

    But, I stubbornly think the surface cold in SE Mass is going to be more of a struggle to moderate than that particular model showed.

    It was an amazing model run though if it is indeed correct, because the temp in Marshfield went from 38F to under 15F in a couple of hrs. That would be an amazing flash freeze if in fact, we get above freezing along with a few hrs of plain rain and then see that kind of temp drop.

  131. YES!!!! 4 superbowl ring! 6 super bowl appearance, tied most super bowl wins by a coach
    most touchdown pass’s in nfl history beats out montana. Several other records broken in this epic game.
    HATERS CAN KISS THE RINGS!! I all ready have a meme ready lol seahawks paid the price for picking on the younger parts of the secondary.

    1. I can’t believe it still. Probably one of the all-time most unreal sequences ever for any game and obviously in a Superbowl. That catch, then the pick.. unreal! What a SWEET win.

  132. oh i should have freakin went into vegas i got the score exactly right and i said edelman would have a huge role.

  134. Some plow has been up and down my street for 10 minutes so I assumed I had a ton of snow already. Nope. Just pushing pavement waking everyone up. Few inches maybe but it is still a bit dark.

  135. Good Morning CHAMPIONS!

    We are in the middle of a SNOW BLITZ. Good thumping going on out there right now.

    Boss just called. Will be making OPEN/CLOSE call in the next 5-10 minutes.

    I’m standing by. 😀

    I’m ready to push my vehicle through this stuff if need be. 😀

    1. Not bad actually, although the higher totals should be pushed South by about
      25 miles. Just my early take. I could be wrong as usual, but I think he has
      the heavier zone just a bit too far North

  141. Snowing at a good clip outside my window. Heavy band of snow working up north from CT shoreline. Unfortunately looks like my area going to go over to that mixorama.

  143. Just walked a mile to the T. Tougher walk than I imagined. A couple of inches of snow and it wasn’t all fluffy.

  147. Stay clear of Brighton Ave between Harvard and Comm – 4 alarm fire which has been knocked down but the area is still a mess!

    1. Awesome! I still can’t figure out why Carroll went with that play?
      Interesting quote – “These coaches are so smart, they out-strategize themselves,” Browner told USA TODAY Sports

      1. In all honestly, it wasn’t a bad call.
        Carrol figured the Pat’s were stacked to stop
        Lynch, so he called what he thought was a PERFECT
        play. Only thing, Butler was smart enough to sniff it out.
        WHAT A PLAY!!!

  154. Our groundhog in CT Chuckles saw his shadow. Six more weeks of winter. I put as much stock in the ground hog as I do in the Almanac and that is not much.

  158. Old Salty I was surprised to hear Chuckles saw his shadow. When you think about with all the camera’s and spotlights on these groundhogs how do that not see their shadow ever year. Will see if we do get six more weeks of winter.

  159. Portland, ME is 5F, Portsmouth, NH is 8F.

    Beyond how far north the mild intrusion gets, I’m fascinated to see what wins at the surface.

    Thats just a wall of heavy, dense cold air sitting just NNE of Boston.

    I’m curious to see how long the coastal front holds or if all of a sudden, while it may continue to warm aloft, the surface wind turns N again, first at Beverly, then Logan, then right down into the South Shore.

  160. Hope Hadi doesn’t mind, but I would like to shout out one of his favorite sayings
    when it’s snowing hard:

    IT’S PUKING SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    HAS to be 2 inches per hour. I mean it’s REALLY COMING DOWN!!!

  162. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 10m10 minutes ago
    Boston likely ends up with about 10″ when all is said and done, which will be a decidedly wetter snow than the 13-16″ Andover to Boxford MA.

Comments are closed.